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28 November 2012| Viewed 2801 times

Commodity Outlook 2013


Agricultural markets are faced with the challenge of rebuilding global stocks next season given precariously balanced fundamentals. In order to achieve a build in stock levels in 2013, we expect prices - particularly in grain and oilseed markets - will need to move higher in Q1 to slow demand from its current pace. Higher prices during this period should also encourage increased global production, resulting in a rebalancing of fundamentals and a weaker price outlook for 2H 2013. The soft commodity markets offer more of a mixed bag in 2013, with a relatively neutral to bearish outlook for prices. Using the S&P Agri Index as a proxy for our commodity forecasts, we expect a decline in agricultural prices of around 10% between Q1 and Q4 2013. However, it is the lack of buffer stocks which leaves the market exposed to another season of extreme uncertainty and high volatility.


Download Commodity Outlook 2013


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