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06 May 2016 | Online since 2003
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Chicago Reports

6 May 2016 | Chicago Reports
05/05/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed sharply lower, and were back testing $10/bu on the nearby May. Weekly export sales of 815,800 MT for 2015/16 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. For 2016/17, net sales of 430,000 MT were reported for mostly unknown destinations (296,000 MT). The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange predicts that 1.94 million soybean acres in Argentina were lost because of heavy rainfall. All of that sounds pretty friendly for beans, but not enough to spark a rally from where we currently lie it would seem. May 16 Soybeans settled at $10.03 1/2, down 21 cents; Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $10.12 1/4, down 21 3/4 cents; May 16 Soybean Meal settled at $335.00, down $8.00; May 16 Soybean Oil settled at 32.01, down 19 points.

Corn: The corn market closed lower, Weekly net export sales of 769,300 MT for 2015/16 were down 64 percent from the previous week and 44 percent from the prior 4-week average, so failed to impress. There were also new crop net export sales of net of 60,500 MT. Exports of 1,226,000 MT were up 13 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (373,700 MT), Colombia (257,500 MT), Peru (140,900 MT), Japan (111,900 MT), Taiwan (101,000 MT), China (65,100 MT), and Venezuela (60,000 MT). Israel bought 120,000 MT of what some are saying could have been US corn in a tender. May 16 Corn settled at $3.71 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents; Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.73 3/4, down 3 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower. Weekly export sales s=were poor at 178,900 MT for delivery in the marketing year 2015/16, being down 49 percent from the previous week. New crop sales of 140,000 MT were reported primarily for China (61,500 MT), Mexico (25,700 MT), Japan (20,000 MT), and South Korea (19,700 MT). of 385,200 MT were down 12 percent from the previous week and 4 percent from the prior 4-week average. The The Kansas wheat tour estimates Kansas all wheat production to reach 382.4 million bushels this summer, with an average yield of 48.6 bu/ac, up from the tour estimate of 288.5 million bushels in 2015. The USDA's FAS in Canada said that 2016/17 all wheat ending stocks there may fall to an all time low 3.75 MMT - the lowest since official records began in 1960. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.63 1/4, down 8 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.52 3/4, down 5 cents; Jul 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.31 3/4, down 9 1/4 cents.



28 April 2016 | Chicago Reports
27/04/15 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans recovered from early losses on continued South American production uncertainty and strong US export sales. With the likes of the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange slashing their production estimate down to 56 MMT it should be remembered however that similar "excess rain/flooding" talk in both of the last two years failed to ultimately make too much of a bearish dent into final yields. It's enough too keep the market jittery heading into the beginning if the US planting season, given the size of the fund short on beans though. The USDA announced 393,000 MT of US soybeans were sold to unknown destinations this morning, with 350,000 for 2015/16 delivery. That can't be argues with. The trade expects tomorrow’s weekly export sales for old crop beans at 400,000 to 600,000 MT. May 16 Soybeans settled at $10.19, up 1 1/4 cents; Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $10.28 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents; May 16 Soybean Meal settled at $325.20, up $1.90; May 16 Soybean Oil settled at 33.62, down 32 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around a couple of cents higher, helped by beans. Weekly ethanol production was 927,000 barrels per day last week, some 12,000 bpd down on the previous week. Ethanol stocks on April 22 were 21.6 million barrels; down 1.8% from the previous week. South Africa cut its 2015/16 production forecast for the third time this season, but at at 7.05 MMT it's still more than 0.5 MMT above the USDA: 6.5 MMT. In March Ukraine exported 2.427 MMT of corn, which is 32% greater than the volume of exports in March 2015 (1.836 MMT), according to UkrAgroConsult. Ukraine said that planting of it's 2016/17 corn crop was now almost halfway done. Trdae estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 900,000 MT to 1.2 MMT. May 16 Corn settled at $3.80 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents; Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.84 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower. There's only so much support fund short money can offer when US prices are substantially more expensive the the rest of the world market. Ukraine exported a record 2.7 MMT of grains in April, And said that they'd exported 33.3 MMT of grains so far this season, including 15 MMT of corn, 15 MMT of wheat and 4.1 MMT of barley. ProZerno estimated Russian 2016 grain production 0.6% higher than last year at 105.46 MMT. Wheat could account for almost 61 MMT of that, they say. The medium term weather forecast for Australia is calling for "abundant, above seasonal norms, rainfall from May to July," Reuters report. That's slap bang in the middle of planting. Weekly export sales for tomorrow are only expected to be 75-200 TMT on old crop. May 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.74 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents; May 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.64, down 2 1/4 cents;May 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.33 1/2, down 1/2 cent.



27 April 2016 | Chicago Reports
26/04/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with strong gains to finish back up above £10/bu. Dr Cordonnier cut his ideas of Argentine soybean prospects by a further 2.0 MMT from last week to 57.0 MMT. The rapid decline of the Argentine crop has taken a few buy surprise, should it come to fruition, woth 59-60 MMT being the norm just a could of weeks ago. Funds were estimated buyers of 14,000 soybean contracts on the day. May 16 Soybeans settled at $10.17 3/4, up 18 cents; Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $10.27 1/4, up 17 1/2 cents; May 16 Soybean Meal settled at $323.30, up $6.90; May 16 Soybean Oil settled at 33.94, up 4 points.

Corn: The market closed around 5-6 cents higher. Chinese customs data showed ethanol imports more than doubling in March from February, with nearly all of that comng from the United States. Firmer beans and an improved Chinese economic outlook are supportive to corn. So too are weather conditions in South America and the news that Brazil is to temporarily allow corn imports duty free from outside the Mercosur trade black. Funds were estimated buyers of 8,000 contracts in corn. May 16 Corn settled at $3.82 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents; Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.87 1/4, up 5 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market stronger, led by Chicago which is where the bulk of the fund short money is. "The strength in wheat has been in defiance of the higher (US) crop condition ratings, said one markket commentator. According to the EU's MARS yield potential for EU winter wheat and barley is up from a month ago. ProZerno say the Russia will end up exporting a record volume of wheat and corn this season. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.87 3/4, up 10 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.78, up 4 1/4 cents; Jul 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.42 3/4, up 5 1/4 cents.



26 April 2016 | Chicago Reports
25/04/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher, and as close to $10 as you can get without actually being there, on front month May. Weekly export inspections of 279,310 MT were around market ideas. After the close the USDA put US 2016 soybean plantings at 3% complete, again in line with trade forecasts. May 16 Soybeans settled at $9.99 3/4, up 12 3/4 cents; Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $10.09 3/4, up 13 1/2 cents; May 16 Soybean Meal settled at $316.40, up $4.70; May 16 Soybean Oil settled at 33.90, down 9 points.

Corn: The corn market closed with fair gains. Weekly export inspections of 1.137 MMT were in line with trade ideas and pretty strong. Talk that Brazil will waste no time taking advantage of the reduced import tax on corn from outside the Mercosur trade bloc leans friendly. After the close the USDA said tha 30% of the US 2016 corn crop was already sown as on Sunday night, well ahead of the five year average of 16% and at the high end of pre-report expectations. They also said that that 5% of the national crop was emerged, 1 point ahead of the average pace. May 16 Corn settled at $3.77, up 5 1/4 cents; Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.81 3/4, up 6 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed with small gains. Weekly export inspections of 406,164 MT were fairly good as wheat goes. The USDA said that 26% of the winter crop was headed as of Sunday night, up 14 points from the week before, and 2 points ahead of the previous five year average. Winter wheat crop ratings were raised 1 point to 57% good to excellent, and up from 42% this time a year ago. Spring wheat planting progress reached 42% complete, up 14 points from the five year average. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.77 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.73 3/4, up 1/4 cent; Jul 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.37 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents.



22 April 2016 | Chicago Reports
21/04/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans extended the recent rally, helped by a 7-week high weekly soybean export sales total. That was 747,418 MT for both old and new crop. That included 407,700 MT for 2015/16. Exports of 339,900 MT were up 2 percent from the previous week, but down 16 percent from the prior 4-week average. Chinese soybean imports in March were up 36% from March 2015 at 6.1 MMT. January to March imports were up 4%. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange slashed its Argentine soybean production estimate for 2015/16 to 56 MMT from its previous forecast of 60 MMT to damage from the recent excessive rains. The Arg Ag Ministry cut to 57.6 MMT from its previous estimate of 60.9 MMT. The USDA are at 59 MMT currently. May 16 Soybeans settled at $10.18 3/4, up 9 cents; Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $10.27 1/2, up 8 1/2 cents; May 16 Soybean Meal settled at $325.20, up $6.30; May 16 Soybean Oil settled at 34.21, down 43 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 10 cents lower, despite weekly export sales of 1,202,800 MT for 2015/16 being up 6 percent from the previous week and 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. Net sales of 123,100 MT were also reported for new crop. In addition exports themselves were 1,283,500 MT - marketing-year-high - and were up 27 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (398,200 MT), Colombia (313,900 MT) Mexico (279,900 MT). There were no sales to Brazil yet, but these might not be far away. Private exporters also reported that 240,000 MT of additional US corn was sold to Japan this morning under the daily reporting system. NYMEX Crude set a near 6-month closing high. With all that bullish news it was interesting to see corn end 10 cents lower then. May 16 Corn settled at $3.84 1/2, down 10 1/4 cents; Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.89 3/4, down 10 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower. Weekly export sales for the soon to end 20115/16 marketing year were 295,100 MT, new crop sales were 325,600 MT and exports of 468,100 MT were up 51 percent from the previous week and 34 percent from the prior 4-week average. The latter also included on cargo to China. Japan purchased 126,298 MT of wheat from the US, Canada, and Australia in it's regulat weekly tender. Stats Canada said Canadian farmers intend to plant 23.8 million acres of all wheat compared to last year's 24.1 million. Plantings last year were 23.111 million. Various analysts are lining up to say the Russia's 2016 wheat crop could now beat last year's. Ukraine;s won't bit will maybe not be down as much as was feared in the winter. Europe's wheat crop might be down 3% or so. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $5.03 1/2, down 8 3/4 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $5.00, down 4 1/2 cents; Jul 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.51 1/4, down 6 1/4 cents



19 April 2016 | Chicago Reports
18/04/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed a touch firmer, but well off earlier highs. Weekly export inspections totalled 256,822 MT. That was down 33.7% from the previous week, but up 73% compared to the same period a year ago. YTD inspections are 42.290 MMT, or 91% of the USDA's target for the season. Excessive rains in Argentina could be causing some yield issues, it is being said. In recent seasons that hasn't ultimately proved to be the case. May 16 Soybeans settled at $9.54 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents; Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $9.63, down 1 1/4 cents; May 16 Soybean Meal settled at $293.00, down $2.90; May 16 Soybean Oil settled at 33.95, up 57 points.

Corn: The market closed around 2-3 cents higher. Weekly export inspections of just over 1 MMT were in line with market expectations. These were down 4% from the week before, but 1.6% larger than the same week in 2015. Season to date inspections are 21.872 MMT, some 13.4% below year ago levels but gaining. Dr Cordonnier says that there's talk of Brazil temporarily abolishing the current 10% import duty on corn from countries outside the Mercosul trade bloc, That might allow US exports into the country, who seem to have overstretched themselves on exports earlier in the season. The USDA estimates 2016 US spring corn plantings are off to a good start at 13% complete, up from 4% a week ago 7% a year ago and versus only 8% done for the average of the past 5-years. May 16 Corn settled at $3.81, up 2 1/2 cents; Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.85, up 3 cents'

Wheat: The wheat market finished with good gains, especially in Chicago. News Friday that fund money sits on a near record long in CBOT wheat maybe had a few lightening the load. Weekly export inspections of 456,924 MMT were 34% up on last week. YTD inspections of 17.614 MMT are now 12.9% smaller than a year ago. A Bloomberg survey forecast this year's coming EU28 soft what crop at 145.8 MMT, from within a range of 140.77-153.00 MMT, and all wheat output at 154.9 MMT, from within a range of 15.68-161.70 MMT (USDA all wheat 160.00 MMT in 2015/16). In the case of all wheat that's a 3.2% fall versus last year. The USDA put the US winter wheat crop at 57% headed, only 1 point up on the week, but still better than 42% this time last year. Spring wheat planting is seen at 27% complete versus 13% a week ago, 31% a hear ago and 19% for the 5-year average. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.81, up 13 1/2 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.75 1/2, up 7 1/4 cents; Jul 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.32 1/2, up 4 1/2 cents.

15 April 2016 | Chicago Reports
14/04/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower despite weekly export sales being fairly good at 455,900 MT for 2015/16 - up 8 percent from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. New crop sales 10,600 MT were reported for South Korea (9,800 MT) and Japan (800 MT). Exports of 408,600 MT were up 27 percent from the previous week, but down 21 percent from the prior 4-week average. Total YTD commitments on beans now total 44.909 MMT, or 97% of the new USDA target for the marketing year. May 16 Soybeans settled at $9.48, down 7 3/4 cents; May 16 Soybean Meal settled at $290.10, down $2.60; May 16 Soybean Oil settled at 33.69, down 27 points.

Corn: The corn market closed with marginal gains. Weekly export sales of 1,135,800 MT for 2015/16 were up 20 percent from the previous week and 21 percent from the prior 4-week average. For 2016/17, net sales of 111,400 MT were reported for Japan (55,600 MT), Mexico (50,500 MT), El Salvador (4,500 MT), and Nicaragua (800 MT). Exports of 1,008,400 MT were down 11 percent from the previous week and 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. The Rosario Grain Exchange increased its Argentine corn production estimate today, but to only to 25 MMT versus the USDA's 28.0 MMT prediction. FranceAgriMer lowered French corn carryout this season by 200,000 MT. May 16 Corn settled at $3.74, up 1/2 cent; Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.78, up 1 cent.

Wheat: The wheat market closed with small losses. Weekly sales exports for the soon to end 2015/16 season came in at 124,700 MMT, along with new crop sales of 211,500 MT. Exports were 309,200 MT were down 21 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average. If the US isn't doing a great job of disposing of it's own burdensome wheat stocks, some are doing better. Strategie Grains cut their EU-28 2015/16 soft wheat ending stocks estimate by 1.0 MMT to 15.6 MMT. For 2016/16 they were down 1.2 MMT to 13.2 MMT. South Korea has bought 45 500 MT of Australian wheat while Japan purchased 127 620 MT of wheat from the USA, Canada, and Australia in a routine tender. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.66 3/4, down 3/4 cent; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.65 3/4, up 3/4 cent; Jul 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.27 1/2, up 3/4 cent.



13 April 2016 | Chicago Reports
12/04/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher. The USDA increased US 2015/16 soybean exports by 15 million bu, thereby reducing ending stocks by a similar amount to 445 million bu. That's around 9 million below the average trade guess. World ending stocks came in at 79 MMT in line with trade ideas. Chinese import demand was increased 1 MMT to a new record 83 MMT. Brazil's crop was unchanged at 100 MMT, Argentina's was raised 0.5 MMT to 59.0 MMT. May 16 Soybeans settled at $9.36 1/4, up 8 cents; Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $9.44 3/4, up 8 cents; May 16 Soybean Meal settled at $285.10, up $5.00; May 16 Soybean Oil settled at 33.69, down 21 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 5-6 cents higher following the USDA report. US corn ending stocks were pegged at 1,862 billion bushels versus trade ideas of 1,845 million. World stocks came in at at 209.81 MMT versus the average trade guess of 207.35 MMT. Brazil's corn crop was unchanged at 84 MMT and Argentina's was 1 MMT higher than previously expected at 28 MMT. Brazil's exports were unchanged (as were those from the US) and Argentina's increased 1 MMT to 20.5 MMT. EU imports were dropped 1 MMT to 15 MMT this season "on expectations that a greater use of wheat in feed rations curbs demand for corn. In addition, the pace of issuing import licenses has slowed in recent months." May 16 Corn settled at $3.62 3/4, up 6 cents; Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.65 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed around 3-5 cents higher. The USDA put US all wheat ending stocks at 976 million bu, very close to what was expected. Chinese wheat consumption took a 2 MT hit, whilst Europe's was boosted by more than 3 MMT. It might be "old crop" but the USDA keep finding a little bit more of it, with Europe's 2015/16 production raised by 1.5 MMT to a nice round 160 MMT. With EU-28 exports lowered 0.5 MMT to 32 MMT "on account of lagging export licenses and greater domestic usage." The net result of which is actually to decrease EU carryout this year from the 20.16 MMT predicted a month ago to 19.33 MMT this time round, although that's still a 40% increase compared to last season. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.58 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.57 1/2, up 3 1/4 cents; Jul 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.23 1/2, up 5 1/2 cents.



12 April 2016 | Chicago Reports
11/04/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed firmer across the board heading into tomorrow's April WASDE report from the USDA. Funds were seen as featured buyers today and appear to be comfortable ahead of tomorrow. The average trade guess for 2015/16 US ending stocks is 454 million bushels tomorrow, with world ending stocks expected at 78.96 MMT. Argentine and Brazilian output are seen at 59.0 MMT and 100.20 MMT respectively. Weekly export inspections today were 386,768 MMT, taking the season to date total to 42 MMT, down 7.3% on last year. That's enough to hit the USDA target for the season. The current US Soybean:Corn price ratio is lining up at 2.55:1 on new crop, which is historically high. The top of the market in that was 2.58:1 set in the summer of 2014. May 16 Soybeans settled at $9.28 1/4, up 11 1/2 cents; Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $9.36 3/4, up 11 3/4 cents; May 16 Soybean Meal settled at $280.10, up $6.40; May 16 Soybean Oil settled at 33.90, down 4 points.

Corn: The market closed lower. Weekly export inspections of 1.122 MMT were in line with expectations. YTD inspections are now 20.772 MMT as of last Thursday which is 14% down on a year ago. The USDA expects full season corn exports from the US to be down 10.2% in 20154/16. In tomorrow's USDA report the trade sees US ending stocks of 1,845 million bushels, with world stocks at 207.35 MMT. Plant beans instead of corn is what the current new crop price ratio is telling the market. The USDA FAS in Brazil said that the country might produce a record 86 MMT of corn in 2016/17 (the harvest after the current one). The cash-strapped Brazilian government is considering introducing export duties on corn and beans of 2.8% to increase budget revenues, according to some media reports. Ukraine seaports were said to have shipped out 386,300 MT of corn last week. May 16 Corn settled at $3.56 3/4, down 5 1/2 cents; Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.59 3/4, down 5 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market finished with double digit losses across the three exchanges. Weekly export inspections of 339,226 MT were a bit better than last week, but 28% smaller than the same week a year ago. YTD inspections are 17.155 MMT, still 12.6% smaller than the same period in 2014/15. The USDA expects these to only be 5.5% lower in a season with 4 weeks left to run. Various reports suggest that Brazil will produce a larger and better quality wheat crop than last year if the weather co-operates. The USDA's FAS have plantings at 2.2 million ha, and yields up 7%, for a crop of 6.0 MMT. The USDA has got a nice little boost in wheat exports by demand from Brazil in the past few year. Argentina would usually be the main beneficiary of ant Brazilian demand due to being a fellow member of the Mercosur trade bloc, although they have had volume and quality issues of their own in the last few years they should be OK for 2015/16. Thailand were said to have bought 100,000 MT of US milling wheat. Egypt are back in the market tomorrow. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.54 1/4, down 12 1/2 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.54 1/4, down 16 1/2 cents; Jul 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.18, down 11 1/2 cents.



10 April 2016 | Chicago Reports
08/04/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher on the day but little altered for the week. CONAB lowered its estimate for the Brazilian soybean crop to 98.98 MMT from their previous estimate of 101.2 MMT. AgResource’s Dan Basse was quoted as saying that Dec beans could hit $7.60 by the end of the year. May 16 Soybeans settled at $9.16 3/4, up 12 1/4 cents; Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $9.25, up 12 1/4 cents; May 16 Soybean Meal settled at $273.70, up $6.90; May 16 Soybean Oil settled at 33.94, down 16 points. For the week that outs May 16 beans 1 1/2 cents lower, with meal $1.40 higher and oil 51 points lower.

Corn: The corn market closed a touch firmer on the day. The USDA announced the sale of 120,000 MT of corn to unknown destinations for 2015-16 delivery under the daily reporting system. The Argentine corn harvest is estimates 18% done. AgResource’s Dan Basse talking at an EU cereals meeting said that corn could fall below $3/bu in Q4 of this year. French new crop corn planting was 1% done as of Monday night. Early plantings in Russia and Ukraine are also underway. UkrAgroConsult report that Sep/Feb Russian corn exports were up 75% from the same period last year. Output here could be at all-time highs again in 2016/17, so why not exports? May 16 Corn settled at $3.62 1/4, up 3/4 cent; Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.65, up 1 cent. For the week the two saw net declines of 8 /1/4 and 7 1/4 cents respectively.

Wheat: The wheat market closed higher on the day, but only consolidating overall weekly losses. Kansas wheat fared the worst of the three exchanges on the week as the USDA renewed it's weekly crop condition reports Monday night, and this came in better for wheat on the Plains than the market had been expecting. AgResource’s Dan Basse mooted ideas of Chicago wheat down to $4/bu come July. US wheat continues to struggle to find export homes. French wheat won the one Egypt order this week but their exports still lag too. Meanwhile French wheat crop conditions are the best for 5 years heading towards what could be another record harvest. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.66 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.70 3/4, up 5 1/4 cents; Jul 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.29 1/2, up 7 1/4 cents. For the week, Chicago wheat fell 16 1/4 cents, with Kansas down 17 3/4 cents and Minneapolis shedding 8 1/2 cents.




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