Corn: The corn market closed slightly higher on the day, but marginally lower
for the week. The weekly Commitment of Traders report shows managed money covering
in around 61k contracts of their overall net short position in corn. Informa
placed 2017 US corn plantings down 3.7% on this year. Average yields of 170.4
bu/acre would bring in a crop of 14.242 billion bushels. Argentine corn planting
only moved on 2.9 percentage points this week to 34.7% done, said the Buenos
Aires Grain Exchange. They see final plantings up 27% year-on-year at 4.9 million
ha. FranceAgriMer said that corn harvesting there was 39% complete (versus 52%
a year ago). Ukraine corn is 45% harvested at 10.92 MMT. Russia's crop is 48.3%
harvested at 7.7 MMT. "The 5 day weather models bring in moderate to heavy
rains in the central region of the Midwest early next week and the 6-15 day
models expand that to the entire Midwest which is expected to slow the harvest
progress significantly, said FCStone. Harvesting was 46% done as of last Sunday.
Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.52 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.62
1/4, up 1 1/2 cents, For the week that puts Dec 16 corn 1 3/4 cents lower, with
Mar 17 down 1 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower on the day and mixed for the week across
the three exchanges. The weekly Commitment of Traders report shows managed money
covering in around 33k lots of their net short in Chicago wheat for the week
through to Tuesday night. Informa estimated US all wheat acres for the 2017
harvest at the lowest levels since 1970 at 48.9 million acres. Winter wheat
plantings were seen at 35.42 million acres. The USDA's FAS in Brazil estimated
their wheat crop this year at 6 MMT. Harvesting of that is taking place now.
Dr Cordonnier reports that conditions are excessively wet, causing harvest delays
and some production and quality concerns for the third year running. FranceAgriMer
reported winter wheat sowing at 43% complete (23% last week and 52% last year
at this time). Russia's winter grains are said to be 93% planted. Ukraine growers
have 82% of their winter wheat area sown. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.14
1/2, down 2 1/2 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.21 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents;
Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.29, down 2 1/4 cents. For the week that puts
CBOT wheat 6 1/2 cents lower, with Kansas up 3 3/4 cents and Minneapolis up
1/2 a cent.
Corn: The market closed lower. Lanworth estimated the Argentine corn area at
28.4 million ha, well below the USDA's figure of 36.5 million. Weekly export
sales came in above expectations ayt just over 1 MMT. Trade forecasts were for
sales of 700,000 to 900,000 MT. Commitments to date are running 10.6 MMT ahead
of a year ago. An exceptionally wet forecast in the 6-15 outlook could stall
the US harvest. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment on corn found
- Bullish: 8 Bearish: 6 Neutral: 10. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.51, down 6 1/2
cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.60 3/4, down 6 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed. Weekly export sales of 513,800 MT were
in line with expectations. The USDA also announced the sale of 114,000 MT of
US wheat sold to unknown destinations for 2016/17 delivery. Egypt announced
that they had bought 120,000 MT of Russian wheat in their tender. for Nov 21-30
shipment. The prices paid averaged less than $190/tonne including freight versus
a comparable US offer of around $207/tonne. Harvest progress in Canada remains
slow. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.17, down 3 1/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat
settled at $4.23, down 2 1/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.30 3/4,
up 1 1/4 cents.
Corn: Corn closed higher, helped by weekly ethanol production of 998,000 barrels
per day, up an impressive 37,000 bpd from the previous week. Crude oil was firmer,
closing at the best levels since July 2015, which also helped corn's cause.
Argentine corn is reported 32% planted versus 28% a year ago and 29% on average
at this time. The trade is expecting a large jump in corn plantings of something
in the region of 25% in Argentina this year. This comes following the Argentine
government's decision to stall on their promise of reducing the soybean export
tax (exports on corn were changed to duty free at the beginning of the year).
Brazil are also expecting a sharp rebound in corn production for 2016/17 thanks
to a return to normal yields. A report released by UN weather forecasters indicates
they expect a 50-60% chance for weak La Nina conditions to form in the coming
months. Ukraine said that it's 2016 corn harvest is 41% complete at 9.85 MMT.
A crop of around 26 MMT is expected. Russia's 2016 corn harvest is 42.9% complete
at 6.8 MMT. Indonesia are said to have purchased 200,000 MT of US corn in a
tender for delivery before Christmas. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly
export sales for corn are in the region of 700,000 MT to 900,000 MT. Dec 16
Corn settled at $3.57 1/2, up 3 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.67 1/4,
up 3 3/4 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed with small gains. Worries over the late Canadian harvest
remain, with quantity and quality likely being harmed by adverse weather conditions.
The US could do with any export help it can get. Trade estimates for tomorrow's
weekly export sales are only 350-550,000 MT. Still, cumulative exports to date
are running 26% ahead of a year ago. Late in the day Russia said that they'd
now harvested 93.5% of this year's grain crop, bringing in 116.6 MMT so far.
Final production of around 120 MMT is expected - a post-Soviet era record. Wheat
harvesting is 97.9% complete at 75.7 MMT. Barley adds a further 19.0 MMT to
the mix (96.9% harvested). Winter plantings of mostly wheat for the 2017 harvest
are now 91% complete on 15.8 million ha. Egypt said that they have sufficient
wheat reserves to last them 5 months and immediately tendered for wheat for
Nov 21-30 shipment with the results expected tomorrow. Heavy rain in Brazil's
second largest wheat state of Rio Grande do Sul is said to be having a negative
impact on the wheat harvest. "Some areas of central Rio Grande do Sul have
already received as much as 15 inches of rain this week and there is more rain
in the forecast for the remainder of this week and next week as well. Estimates
are that 10% of the wheat crop has already been lost and loses could be as high
as 30% if the forecast for heavy rains again next week verifies," said
Dr Cordonnier. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.20 1/4, up 1/4 cent; Dec 16 KCBT
Wheat settled at $4.25 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.30
3/4, up 3 cents.
Corn: The corn market closed with small losses. In Brazil full season corn
planting is continuing at a faster pace than last year, at 88% complete. Yields
are expected to return to "normal" in 2016/17 following a poor harvest
due to drought in 2015/16. The USDA's FAS in Europe lowered their estimate for
this year's EU-28 corn crop to 60 MMT (the USDA themselves are at 60.3 MMT),
although that's still up a little on 58 MMT a year ago. The USDA's FAS in Kiev
estimated corn production in Ukraine this year at 26 MMT versus 23.3 MMT a year
ago. They see 2016/17 corn exports at 18 MMT versus 16.9 MMT in 2015/16. Ending
stocks are placed at 1.7 MMT versus 1.1 MMT last season. The EU will be Ukraine's
top corn export home in 2016/17. The 5 day forecast is net wetter for the southern
corn belt of Brazil and Argentina areas. The northern corn belt is dry,"
said FCStone. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.53 3/4, down 1/4 cent; Mar 17 Corn settled
at $3.63 1/2, down 1/2 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower, reversing some of the recent short-covering
gains. Japan announced it's regular weekly tender for 132,000 MT of US, Canadian
and Australian milling wheat. In Ukraine, "planting decisions made by farmers
in regard to winter grains are being impacted by both economic factors and weather
conditions," said the USDA. "Weather factors suggest insufficient
levels of topsoil moisture as of the end of September 2016, which is confirmed
by local weather reports as well as satellite imagery data," they added.
Russia said that their grain exports so far this season are down 5% at 11.2
MMT, of which 9.24 MMT is wheat. The USDA's FAS in Europe estimated this year's
wheat crop there at 144.5 MMT versus 160 MMT a year ago. That's still a bit
higher than the USDA's own official forecast of 143.2 MMT though. Canadian production
and quality is very likely coming down as they struggle to harvest the tail
end of their crop, said Benson Quinn. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.20, down
3 3/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.21 3/4, down 1/4 cent; Dec 16 MGEX
Wheat settled at $5.27 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents.
Corn: The market closed narrowly mixed. Weekly export inspections of 875,808
MT were up nearly 77% from the same week last year, but down almost 25% from
last week’s total. Inspections of around 1.0-1.2 MMT were expected. Still,
YTD inspections are up 79.5% versus a year ago. The USDA reported US corn crop
conditions up 1 points to 74% good to excellent. Harvesting was estimated at
46% done versus 49% for the 5-year average and trade ideas of 48-50% complete.
Maturity is 97% versus 94% on average. IMEA estimated that the safrinha corn
area in Brazil's Mato Grosso state will be unchanged this year at 4.24 million
ha,. They see yields returning to "normal", up 23%, with a similar
percentage increase in production to 23.2 MMT. Ukraine's 2016/17 corn exports
are only just starting. The country's seaports shipped out 126.5 TMT of corn
last week, according to APK Inform. Russian seaports exported 101.5 TMT of corn
last week. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.54, down 1/4 cent; Mar 17 Corn settled
at $3.64, up 1/4 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market pressed on to new highs on further short-covering but
is starting to look a little tired. Weekly export inspections of 450,613 MT
were about what the market was expecting, but much better than 206 TMT a year
ago. Saudi Arabia were reported to have bought 610 TMT of wheat in their tender
originally reported as 595 TMT last week. Algeria were said to have booked 480
TMT. The Russian 2016 grain harvest was reported at 93.1% complete, putting
115.8 MMT in the bins so far. Wheat harvesting is said to be 97.9% complete
at 75.6 MMT. Winter plantings of mostly wheat are reported to be 89.1% complete
on 15.5 million ha. The USDA reported US winter wheat plantings at 72% complete
(73% for the 5-year average). Emergence is at 47% (versus 45% on average). Russian
seaports exported 637.4 TMT of grain last week (up from only 325.9 TMT the previous
week) of which 526.8 TMT was wheat. Ukraine seaports exported 506 TMT of grain,
of which 244.1 TMT was wheat. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.23 3/4, up 2 3/4
cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.22, up 4 1/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat
settled at $5.29, up 1/2 cent.
Corn: Corn closed with decent gains on the day and for the week. Weekly export
sales were OK, coming in at 873,400 MT for 2016/2017, down 58 percent from the
previous week and 18 percent below the prior 4-week. The average trade guess
was for sales of between 700,000 MT and 1.450 MMT. Short-covering has been a
major factor this week, pushing prices to highs not seen on a nearby month since
July. Managed money was said to have covered in roughly 32,000 lots of their
net short position in corn through to Tuesday’s close. They are still
net short 130,973 contracts however. FranceAgriMer said that the French 2016
corn harvest is estimated at 23% done, ten points down on this time in 2015.
Crop conditions were unchanged at 53% good to very good versus 56% a year ago.
In Russia, corn harvesting is said to be 39% complete at 6.1 MMT. Dec 16 Corn
closed at $3.54 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn closed at $3.63 3/4, up 4 1/4
cents. For the week Dec 16 gained 14 1/2 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed higher on the day and for the week. Weekly export sales
of 491,000 MT for delivery in marketing year 2016/17 were up 30 percent from
the previous week and 3 percent above the prior 4-week average. Short-covering
has also been a major feature in wheat this week, with managed month reducing
the size of their net short position in Chicago by around 16k contracts to 135,406
lots as of Tuesday night. Increased export interest, and talk that US wheat
is finally becoming more competitive on the international stage is what appears
to have got them spooked. Egypt bought 120,000 MT of Romanian and 60,000 MT
of Russian milling wheat for delivery Nov 11-20. Algeria have been in the market,
reportedly booking 450-500 TMT of optional origin wheat in a tender for 50 TMT.
Saudi Arabia are also said to have purchased 595,000 MT of wheat of HRW quality.
In Russia wheat harvesting is said to be 97.8% complete at 75.6 MMT. Dec 16
CBOT Wheat closed at $4.21, up 5 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.17 3/4,
up 3 3/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.28 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents. For
the week CBOT wheat was up 26 1/4 cents.
Corn: The corn market closed with strong gains helped by advances in wheat.
The US energy Dept reported weekly US ethanol production at 962,000 barrels
per day, down 18,000 bod from the previous week. Stocks were at an 11-month
low of 19.39 million barrels, partly due to disruptions in production due to
the remnants of Hurricane Matthew. "(The) weather forecast looks to be
very favorable with many areas seeing 70+ degree days this weekend. This should
help dry down corn and field conditions. I would anticipate a respectable increase
in harvest progress with this weather forecast," said Benson Quinn's Brian
Henry. Weekly export sales for corn are predicted to be in the region of between
700,000 MT and 1.450 MT. The Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment
on corn found the trade pretty evenly split: Bullish: 7 Bearish: 7 Neutral:
6. Russia said that it's corn harvest was 37.9% done at 5.8 MMT. Ukraine's corn
harvest is said to have stalled on adverse weather. FranceAgriMer lowered their
French corn export estimate to 5.16 MMT, down from 5.26 MMT previously and versus
6.09 MMT a year ago. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.49 1/2, up 12 1/2 cents; Mar
17 Corn settled at $3.59 1/2, up 12 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with solid gains as fund money got spooked into
covering in some of their massive wheat short position. Good demand emerged
with Egypt, Algeria and Saudi Arabia all in the market tendering for wheat of
various volumes and origins. There's talk that US wheat offers are finally becoming
competitive. In the Egyptian enquiry there was an offer of 55,000 MT of US hard
red winter wheat tendered by Louis Dreyfus at $173.98/tonne. "While the
cargo was disqualified, for not meeting tender specifications, it was by a distance
the cheapest on offer, below Romanian wheat, of which the lowest offer was priced
at $179.99/tonne, with Russian supplies offered at $177.94/tonne or more,"
said Agrimoney. FranceAgriMer lowered their forecast for the French wheat crop
by 0.5 MMT to just 28.0 MMT this year, a 31.5% slump compared to 2015. French
exports to non-EU countries were estimated at 6.4 MMT (versus 6.6 MMT previously
and 12.6 MMT last season). Exports within the EU were seen at 4.7 MMT (unchanged
from last month but down from 7.8 MMT in 2015/16). Weekly export sales tomorrow
are predicted at 300,000 MT to 550,000 MT. The Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst
sentiment on wheat found: Bullish: 5 Bearish: 12 Neutral: 3. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat
settled at $4.16, up 19 1/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.14, up 15
1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.32, up 10 1/4 cents.
Corn: The market closed with sharp losses. The USDA came out with 2016 US corn
production at 15.057 billion bushels and yields of 173.4 bu/acre. Both were
pretty much exactly what the trade had been expecting. US 2016/17 ending stocks
were estimated at 2.32 billion bu. On a global level the world 2016/17 crop
was lowered 1 MMT to 1026 MMT, with ending stocks down from 219.5 MMT to 216.8
MMT. US 2016/17 exports were raised 1.5 MMT to 56.5 MMT and Brazil's were upped
1 MMT to 21 MMT. The usual Wednesday weekly ethanol production data is delayed
a day until tomorrow. Brazilian full season corn planting is reported at 38%
done, some 15 points lower than at this time last year. A hard freeze warning
is in place for the WCB tonight, but should come too late in the season to cause
much damage. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.37, down 8 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled
at $3.47, down 8 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower across the three exchanges, with Chicago
wheat the hardest hit. "Global production in 2016/17 is lowered slightly
but remains a record. Larger crops in Australia, Brazil, and Canada are more
than offset by cuts in the EU and the United States," the USDA said. US
2016/17 ending stocks were estimated at 1.138 billion bu (trade estimates were
between 1.050 and 1.400 billion bu). US exports in 2016/17 were raised 0.5 MMT
to 26 MMT due to the strong early-season pace of sales and shipments. Australian
and Canadian production and exports were also raised. Russia was left unchanged
on both fronts. Russia said that it exported 3.655 MMT of wheat in September,
up 20% on August, despite problems with shipments to Egypt. The USDA today lowered
Egypt's imports a little, down from 12.2 MMT to 11.8 MMT. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat
settled at $3.96 3/4, down 10 1/2 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $3.98
1/2, down 7 3/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.21 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents.
Corn: Corn closed a couple of cents or so higher. Weekly export inspections
of 1.13 MMT were down around 24% from last week, but still up some 87% on the
same week last year. The USDA also announced export sales of 161,544 MT of corn
for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/17 marketing year under
the daily reporting system. The market is expecting the USDA to lower 2016 US
corn yields by around 1 bu/acre in tomorrow's report, with the average trade
guess coming in around 173.4 bu/acre. Production is estimated around 15.06 billion
bu. After the close the USDA put this year's US corn harvest at 35% done versus
the expected 40-45% and 38% on average. Maturity was placed at 93% versus 88%
on average. Crop conditions were left unchanged at 73% good to excellent, in
line with expectations. "South American weather remains beneficial for
planting in central Brazil, southern Brazil, and all of Argentina’s corn
belt the next 5 days. The northern Brazil corn belt is due for some much needed
showers in the 6-10 forecast," said FCStone. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.45
1/2, up 2 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.55 1/4, up 2 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed mixed. Weekly export inspections of only 432,859 MT didn't
pull up any trees. That is only around 65% of last week's total, but still better
than the same poor week last year (322 TMT). Loadings to date are running 2.21
MMT over a year ago. The USDA reported winter wheat planting for the 2017 harvest
at 59% complete versus 60% on average. Emergence is at 34% versus 30% on average.
The trade is looking for US ending stocks of between 1.050 and 1.400 billion
bushels on Wednesday, with global carryout seen at 246 to 252.70 MMT. Bullish
surprises for wheat are not expected. Still, the funds remain heavily short
and may be unwilling to press the downside to much more for the time being.
Japan are in the market for their regular Tuesday wheat tender, looking for
100 TMT of US/Canadian origin material (no room for Australia this week), with
the results expected on Thursday. Russia said that they'd harvested 114.5 MMT
of grains so far this season off 92.5% of the combinable area. That includes
75.5 MMT of wheat (97.7%) and 19.0 MMT of barley (96.7%). Dec 16 CBOT Wheat
settled at $4.07 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.06 1/4,
down 3/4 cent; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.24 1/4, up 2 cents.
Corn: The corn market closed with net gains of 3-4 cents. Unlike beans, the trade is anticipating lower yields in Wednesday's USDA report, with the average trade guess coming in around 173.4 bu/acre versus the USDA's September figure of 174.4 bu/acre. Funds still hold a large short position in corn and will be nervous heading into this report. As well as the usual crop progress report being delayed (corn harvesting is expected to be 40 t0 45% complete), tomorrow also brings the one-day delayed export inspections numbers. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.43 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.53 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with solid gains on short-covering heading into
Wednesday's USDA report. Friday's Commitment of Traders report showed spec money
holding a record large short in Chicago wheat (151,417 contracts) as of Tuesday
night. The trade is looking for US ending stocks of 1.050 and 1.400 billion
bushels on Wednesday, with global carryout seen at 246 to 252.70 MMT. The USDA’s
Attache to India estimates the country will import 3 MMT of wheat in 2016 vs
the USDA's own official 2 MMT forecast. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.03 3/4,
up 9 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.07, up 4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat
settled at $5.22 1/4, up 1/4 cent.