Corn: The market closed with losses of around 4 cents heading into tomorrow's
USDA report. Weekly export sales of 1,495,400 MT for 2016/17 were up 96 percent
from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. That easily
beat trade estimates that were running at around 700,000 and 1,000,000 MT. Exports
of 1,366,400 MT were up 69 percent from the previous week and 94 percent from
the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (292,000 MT),
Mexico (256,700 MT), Taiwan (214,000 MT), Saudi Arabia (182,000 MT) and Peru
(72,800 MT). Brazil planting is almost 93% complete while Argentina is still
lagging at 48% complete. Brazil's CONAB is estimating summer corn crop potential
of 2016/17 at 27.06 MMT, down from the November forecast of 28.55 MMT, but still
a 7% increase over last year. Brazil full crop estimate was essentially unchanged
from November at 82.8 MMT, a sharp increase versus 2015/16. CNGOIC lowered it's
forecast China's on corn consumption at 197 MMT, well below the USDA's 226 MMT.
Trade ideas for tomorrow's world corn ending stocks estimate from the USDA is
219.2 MMT, which would be 1 MMT larger than the November report. The Russian
corn harvest is 86.8% complete at 14.8 MMT. Dec 16 Corn closed at $3.46 1/2,
down 4 cents; Mar 17 Corn closed at $3.53 1/2, down 4 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher heading into tomorrow's report, possibly
due to short-covering in Chicago. Weekly export sales of 503,100 MMT for delivery
in marketing year 2016/17 were up 4 percent from the previous week, but down
22 percent from the prior 4-week average. That was at the upper end of the expected
300,000 MT to 500,000 MT though. Exports of 555,500 MT were up noticeably from
the previous week and 59 percent from the prior 4-week average. India announced
that they were to cut their current wheat import duty from 10% to zero. Trade
ideas are that they could end up importing around 3 MMT, and possibly as much
as 5 MMT, on the back of the move before new crop begins harvesting again in
late Mar/April. That would be their largest imports since 2006/07. Australia
and Ukraine are likely to be the main beneficiaries, but at least it would remove
some surplus stocks from the global market. Sub-zero temperatures on the US
Plains keep getting a muted mention, but the trade seems relaxed about winter
kill ideas for now. Saudi Arabia are tendering for 715 TMT of hard wheat for
Feb/Apr shipment, Ethiopia are in for 70 TMT of optional origin milling wheat.
The average of pre-report trade estimate for 2016/17 global ending stocks is
250.3 MMT in tomorrow's report. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat closed at $3.90 3/4, up 4
1/2 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat closed at $3.87, up 5 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat
closed at $5.35 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents.
Corn: Corn closed a touch easier. There's some trade talk of US corn heading
for Brazil to shore up their supplies depleted by aggressive early season exports
and a slump in safrinha production in 2015/16. Prospects look much better for
2016/17, but the crop's not made yet. Argentine weather leans a bit friendly.
US weekly ethanol production rose to 1.023 million barrels per day last week
(the highest production level in 14 weeks), up from 1.012 million the previous
week. Ethanol demand remains unusually strong as margins remain favourable.
Year to date ethanol export shipments are up 19% from last year. This could
mean that the USDA will increase their corn for ethanol usage estimate in Friday’s
WASDE report. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for
corn are running at around 700,000 and 1,000,000 MT. French corn exports in
October were 435,000 MT versus 590,000 MT a year previously. The largest buyers
were the Netherlands (115.1 TMT), Spain (113.5 TMT), Germany (55.3 TMT) and
Belgium (54.6 TMT). According to the forecasts of FranceAgriMer, in the current
season corn exports will fall to 5.14 MMT (-15.7% compared to last season).
Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.50 1/2, down 1/2 cent; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.58,
down 2 1/2 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed lower across the three exchanges. Cold temperatures continue
to be forecast for US plains, but with large supplies, the trade is not too
concerned. China said it sold just 6% of the 74,292 of US SRW wheat reserves
offered up for sale at auction yesterday. Japan are tendering for 123,754 MT
of US/Canadian wheat in their regular weekly tender. French soft wheat exports
are struggling. Total October French wheat exports, including those within the
EU, were down 31% at 685,000 MT. Season-to-date non-EU exports are 32% lower
at just 1.8 MMT from what is usually the bloc's largest foreign seller. The
Russian Ag Ministry said that this year's harvest in bunker weight was 125.1
MMT so far off 97% of the planned area. They now foresee a final clean weight
harvest of 117.5-118.0 MMT, using around a 6% reduction for cleaning/screening.
That would potentially give them a wheat crop of around 71.5 MMT in clean weight
and see barley production at around 18 MMT (USDA 72 MMT and 18 MMT respectively).
Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales for wheat are 300,000 MT
and 500,000 MT. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.86 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents; Dec
16 KCBT Wheat settled at $3.82, down 5 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.34,
down 4 3/4 cents.
Corn: Corn closed with small gains. The USDA reported sales of 276,000 MT of
corn for delivery to South Korea during the 2016/17 marketing year under the
daily reporting system. Stats Canada came out with a Canadian 2016 corn output
estimate of 13.19 MMT versus the expected 13.1 MMT and compared to 13.56 MMT
in 2015. Net US ethanol exports set an all-time record for the month of October
and were the highest single month net export volume in 5 years at 122 million
gallons the month before last. This was led by big sales to Canada and Brazil
in the amounts of 35 million gallons and 43 million gallons respectively, reported
FCStone. US DDG exports for October were slightly above the volume in September
at 1.005 MMT. China continues to be a small customer compared to past years
with only 124.7 TMT for the month, they add. Argentine weather remains a concern,
although early calls on production are around 25-27% higher due to a sharp increase
in plantings. Romania reported that it's 2016 corn harvest was down 5.6% on
last year at 8.47 MMT due to a dry summer. In Russia, corn harvesting is 85.8%
complete at 14.6 MMT. Dec 16 Corn closed at $3.51, up 1 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Corn
closed at $3.60 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed. Stats Canada put total Canadian wheat
production at 31.7 MMT on a national average yield of 53.2 bu/acre. The trade
was only expecting production at 30.7 MMT. This is also now 200,000 MT higher
than the USDA's November estimate. ABARES ahev the Australian crop at 32.64
MMT versus the USDA’s 28.3 MMT estimate in November. Ikar cut their Russian
wheat export forecast from 29 MMT to 28.5 MMT (USDA: 30.0 MMT) citing unfavourable
weather and its impact on logistics, and intensified competition. "When
the USDA first posited the export number for Russia it said it was a very aggressive
number that required near perfection to achieve," said FCStone. Tunisia
were said to have bought 117,000 MT of soft wheat for Jan/Feb shipment in a
tender, along with 55,000 MT of feed barley, both of optional origin. Traders
surmise that the wheat may have been most likely of Argentine or Russian origin.
China only sold 15% of the 2.8 MMT of wheat reserves offered up for sale at
auction. Jordan were said to have bought 50,000 MT of milling wheat of optional
origin in a tender. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat closed at $3.89 1/2, up 1/4 cent; Dec
16 KCBT Wheat closed at $3.87, down 3 1/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat closed at
$5.38 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents.
Corn: The market closed with strong gains helped by a weaker US dollar and
the decent gains posted by crude oil in recent sessions. There also seemed to
be an element of "risk on" buying in various commodities maybe associated
with the new month. Talk that South Korean buyers have been active buyers of
not less than 10 cargoes of US corn in the past few days after global prices
hit 2-month lows also leaned friendly. Weekly US export inspections of 1.15
MMT were better than expected too and over 3 times the level a year ago. Loadings
to date are running 6.46 MMT over a year ago versus the USDA's projection for
full season exports to top last year by 8.32 MMT. Informa was unchanged on Argentine
corn production at 36.5 MMT, the same as the USDA. In Russia the corn harvest
is 85.8% over at 14.6 MMT. APK Inform said that Ukraine seaports exported 456.4
TMT of corn last week, up from 438.1 TMT the previous week. Dec 16 Corn closed
at $3.49 1/2, up 12 cents; Mar 17 Corn closed at $3.59 1/4, up 12 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market mixed, Weekly export inspections came in at 453,633
MT, 85% larger than the previous week but that was a particular poor effort.
This week's total was in line with expectations. "Even though this week’s
loadings were nearly double a year ago values they are running around where
they are normally for this general time period. This creates a situation which
will likely cause the year’s total to fall short of the USDA expectations
of a yoy increase of 5.44 MMT. So far the year to date numbers is 3 MMT over
a year ago," said FCStone. Wheat has been getting some support from cold
weather potentially threatening the US winter crop, exposed by little snow cover.
ABARES forecast a record Australian wheat harvest of 32.64 MMT this year, up
almost 35% on year ago levels due to favourable weather in the east. The Russian
Ag Ministry said that their 2016 wheat harvest had now reached 75.9 MMT in bunker
weight off 98.2% of the planned area. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat closed at $3.89 1/4,
up 1 3/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat closed at $3.90 1/4, up 1/4 cent; Dec 16 MGEX
Wheat closed at $5.37 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents.
Corn: Corn closed around 4-5 cents higher. Ukraine reported their corn harvest
to be 90% complete at 24.2 MMT. The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that the country's
total grain exports so far this season total 18.4 MMT, of which 4.5 MMT is corn.
Russia's corn harvest is 85% complete at 14.4 MMT and well on the way to setting
a new all-time high. Argentine corn planting is said to be 43% complete on 2.12
million ha. That's only up 2 points on the week and 9 points behind average.
FranceAgriMer reported that the French corn harvest is virtually done at 99%
complete compared to 98% the week prior and in line with the year on year norm.
South Korea’s Nonghyup Feed Group are said to be in the market for as
much as 276,000 MT of optional origin corn for March 30th through April 30th
delivery. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.37 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled
at $3.47 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents. For the week Dec 16 corn was 11 3/4 cents weaker
and Mar 17 fell 11 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed higher, led by the front end in Chicago. Argentine wheat
is 11.1% harvested. Stats Canada are due out with their latest production estimates
on Tuesday. The average estimate for all-wheat production puts the Canadian
crop at 30.7 MMT, which is the largest in three years. Algeria were said to
have bought at least 120,000 MT of durum wheat for Jan/Feb shipment in a tender.
Tunisia are in the market for 109,000 MT of soft wheat and 50,000 MT of feed
barley. FranceAgriMer reported that 22% of the French winter wheat crop is at
the early tillering stage, down from 53% this time a year ago. rench winter
wheat rated good to very good was 94%, unchanged from a week ago, but 3 points
down on this time in 2015. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.87 1/2, up 16 cents;
Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $3.90, up 6 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at
$5.43, up 2 cents. For the week nearby Chicago wheat was down 8 1/4 cents, Kansas
fell 21 1/4 cents and Minneapolis was up 8 3/4 cents.
Corn: The corn market closed around unchanged. The big news today came out
of the OPEC meeting where it was agreed to cut production by 1.2 million barrels/day.
Weekly US ethanol production was down 2,000 barrels/day, but still over 1 million
barrels/day. Trade ideas for tomorrow's weekly export sales numbers are between
650,000 MT and 1.8 MMT versus 1,688,800 MT a week ago. The Russian corn harvest
is 83% done at 13.9 MMT. Ukraine's corn harvest stands at 22.9 MMT off 86% of
the planned area. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.36 3/4, unchanged; Mar 17 Corn settled
at $3.48 1/2, down 1/2 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed, with spring wheat in Minneapolis again
the strongest leg of the complex. Jordan are in the market for 50,000 MT of
wheat from optional origin. Japan are tendering for 158,514 MT of food wheat
of US, Canadian and Australian origin in their regular weekly tender. Trade
estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for wheat are 300,000 MT
to 800,000 MT versus 712,500 MT a week ago. Rusagrotrans said that Russia had
exported 3.95 MMT of grains in November - a record volume for the month and
26% more than in Nov 2015. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.80 1/2, down 3 1/2
cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $3.91 1/4, down 7 1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX
Wheat settled at $5.39 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents.
Corn: The market closed with heavy losses. The USDA's baseline numbers for
next year were plantings of 90 million acres, a 170.8 bu/acre yield and 2017/18
ending stocks of 2.298 billion bushels. Brazil's full season corn is reported
to be 99% planted in Parana and 90% done in Rio Grande do Sul. Argentina is
41% complete versus 49% on average at this time. Brazil's corn exports could
jump 62% next season, according to their National Grain Association. Russia
reported their 2016 total grain harvest to be 96.7% complete at 124.4 MMT. Corn
harvesting is 82.6% done at 13.9 MMT. Ukraine's harvest is now 95% complete
at 62 MMT, including 22.9 MMT of corn off 86% of the planned area. The French
corn harvest is over with production expected to be no higher than 11.5 MMT
this year, according to Agritel. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.36 3/4, down 11 3/4
cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.49, down 9 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market finished lower across the board. The USDA early baseline
projections for wheat next year is an acreage of 48.5 million, a 47.1 bu/acre
yield and 2017/18 ending stocks adding up to 993 million bushels. Egypt's GASC
bought 240,000 MT of Russian wheat for early Jan shipment paying a little bit
less than previously. There were no US offers. Strategie Grains forecast a recovery
in EU-28 soft wheat production to 152.9 MMT next year, some 8 MMT above output
in 2016. They see EU-28 soft wheat exports in 2017/18 at 30 MMT, up 5.7 MMT
on this season. At the same time, exports from Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan
collectively are currently expected to fall by some 2 MMT in 2017/18, as production
there declines to trend-levels, said Agrimoney. Ukraine winter wheat is said
to be 95% planted. Russia is just about finished. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled
at $3.84, down 5 1/2 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $3.98 3/4, down 12
3/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.34 1/4, down 7 cents.
Corn: Corn closed around unchanged. Weekly export inspections of 800,967 MT
were towards the lower end of what the trade was anticipating. In Russia, corn
harvesting is 82% done at 13.7 MMT. Ukrain is 84% complete at 22.4 MMT. Both
are stepping up their foreign corn shipments. APK Inform said that Ukraine seaports
exported 836.3 TMT of grains last week, up from 616.7 TMT the previous week.
That included 438.1 TMT (52%) of corn. Russia's grain exports via seaports totalled
436.1 TMT last week including 67.7 TMT of corn. Brazilian weather conditions
remain near perfect. Chinese customs data shows that they imported 2.99 MMT
of corn Jan/Oct, a 35% reduction compared to a year previously. Almost all of
that came from Ukraine. The commitment of traders report shows managed money
reducing their net short in corn futures and options by 24,762 contracts for
the week through to Tuesday night. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.48 1/2, down 3/4
cent; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.58 1/4, unchanged.
Wheat: Wheat closed mixed, with Chicago the loser and Kansas and Minneapolis
around unchanged to as much as 7 cents higher. Weekly export inspections of
only 221,985 MT were poor. Chinese customs data shows that they stepped up their
wheat imports Jan/Oct to a cumulative 3.12 MMT, up 22% on the same period in
2015. That largest suppliers were Australia, Canada and the US. This came at
the expense of barley imports however which were down 57% at 4.18 MMT. The largest
suppliers here were Australia, France and Canada. The USDA put 58% of the US
winter wheat crop in good to excellent condition, unchanged on a week ago. They
said that 92% of the crop is emerged, exactly in line with the 5-year average.
The commitment of traders report shows managed money reducing their overall
net short in CBOT wheat by 18,131 contracts for the week through to Tuesday
night. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.89 1/2, down 6 1/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT
Wheat settled at $4.11 1/2, up 1/4 cent; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.41
1/4, up 7 cents.
Corn: The corn market closed around a cent or so lower. As with beans, fresh
news was thin on the ground, and so too were traders. Argentina reported that
their corn crop was 41.1% planted of the anticipated 4.9 million ha. Weekly
export sales came in at 1,688,800 MT for 2016/17, up 2 percent from the previous
week and 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. The trade was expecting sales
of 900 TMT to 1.2 MMT. Exports of 591,800 MT were up 9 percent from the previous
week, but down 16 percent from the prior 4-week average. FranceAgriMer said
that the French corn harvest was 98% complete, up 3 points in a week and the
same as this time a year ago. In Russia, corn harvesting is now 80.5% complete
at 13.4 MMT. Dec 16 Corn closed at $3.49 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Corn
closed at $3.58 1/4, down 1 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed, higher in Minneapolis and lower in Kansas
and Chicago. Minneapolis gets a boost from the continued problems experienced
by Canadian growers getting the last of their spring wheat harvest in. Some
6% of the crop is still in the field in Saskatchewan. For once weekly export
sales were much better than expected at 712,500 MT for delivery in marketing
year 2016/17. These were up 19 percent from the previous week and 27 percent
from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 379,500 MT were down 6 percent from
the previous week, but up 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. Argentina's
wheat crop is reported at 17.7% harvested. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat closed at $3.95
3/4, down 5 3/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.11 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents;
Dec 16 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.34 1/4, up 7 cents.
Corn: The market closed with little change heading into the holiday. Markets
are closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving and trade will be thin on Friday. The US
Energy Dept reported daily ethanol production last week was 1.014 million barrels,
down 3,000 bpd on the previous week. South Korea's KOCOPIA are in the market
for 50,000 MT of optional origin corn for March shipment. South Africa are forecasting
corn plantings up 35% this year following drought reduced sowings a year ago.
In Russia, where corn harvesting is ongoing, the Ag Ministry reported things
at 78.8% complete for a crop of 13.1 MMT to date. Dec 16 Corn closed at $3.50
3/4, down 1/4 cent; Mar 17 Corn closed at $3.59 1/4, up 1/4 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market ended mixed but mostly lower. The Indonesia Ag Ministry
is aiming for no corn imports in 2017, as a drive towards achieving self-sufficiency.
They could import 35% more feed wheat as a result it is thought. Jordan cancelled
their tender for 100,000 MT of optional origin hard wheat and immediately re-tendered
for the same. Bangladesh are said to have agreed to buy 200,000 MT of Russian
wheat. Japan bought 20,300 MT of feed wheat of optional origin for December
shipment. Rabobank forecast CBOT wheat prices in the final quarter of 2017 at
$4.60/bushel. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.01 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents; Dec 16
KCBT Wheat closed at $4.15 1/2, down 1 cent; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.27
1/4, up 1/4 cent.