Corn: The corn market closed flat on a general lack of fresh news. "The corn market lacked fresh inputs of either persuasion. The negative factors will continue to limit upside, while supportive factors basically impossible to find. Talk of large yields in the southern plains and southeast continue to be mentioned," said Benson Quinn Commodities. Traders note that we often don't see the bottom of the corn market until October. Taiwan's MFIG are tendering for 60,000 MT of Brazilian or South African corn for Oct-Nov shipment. Ag Resource estimated 2014/15 US corn ending stocks at 2.1 billion bushels, rising to 3 billion by the end of 2015/16. That's up sharply from 1.2 billion bushels at the end of the current season. They see the average 2014/15 US corn price at $3.40/bushel. Dr Cordonnier estimated 2014 US corn yields at a record 170 bu/acre, up from a previous forecast of 169 bu/acre. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that growers there had sold 63.72% of their 2013/14 corn crop versus 73.84% a year ago. South Africa's CEC estimated corn production there at 14.307 MMT, the highest in 30 years. Data from the US Energy Dept showed weekly ethanol production fell to 913k barrels/day last week. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for corn are around a combined 450-750 TMT, with old crop sales 100 TMT either side of zero. Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.56 and Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.65. Both completely unchanged.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed. There was little change to the situation in Russia/Ukraine. Exports out of the region appear to be continuing unhindered. The head of the Russian Grain Union forecast grain production there at 104 MMT, but said that output could rise above the 2008/09 post-Soviet era record of 108 MMT given favourable weather between now and the end of the harvest. That currently stands at 72.9 MMT off 54% of the planned area. Wheat production could come in at 60 MMT, he opined. It's at 46.9 MMT so far off 55.3% of plan. He said that 2014/15 grain exports would be a record 30 MMT. They exported a record for the month in July and are expected to have shipped out a record for any month in August. The USDA's FAS forecast the EU-28 grain crop at 306.1 MMT, a 2.5 MMT increase on their previous estimate and the second highest in history, beaten only by output of 312 MMT in 2008/09. The USDA's FAS in Canada estimated wheat production there this year at just under 28 MMT versus the record crop of 37.5 MMT last year. Exports will only decline relatively modestly though, down 6% to 21.5 MMT in 2014/15, they added. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that farmers there had only sold 67.53% of their 2013/14 wheat crop versus 99.12% a year ago. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are a modest 300-500 TMT. Sep 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.47 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents; Sep 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.28, up 7 cents; Sep 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.10 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents.
Corn: The corn market closed down, although off the lows. As with soybeans, the conviction that US yields will be record and production will be huge this year, grows with every passing day at the moment. Last night's one point rise in crop conditions from the USDA to 73% good to excellent was said to be the highest rating since 1994. Also as with soybeans, early limited corn harvesting in the south is doing nothing but add to the conviction that this year's US crop is going to be a monster. "Despite the recovery late in the session, the list of items offering resistance is growing with reports the corn harvest in the southern plains and southeast is yielding much better than expected," said Benson Quinn Commodities. The EU-28 corn crop is also looking magnificent, helped by recent plentiful rains. A much larger feed wheat crop in Europe, and also Ukraine, this year also leans bearish for corn. Certainly some of this feed wheat will be/is already finding its way into potentially traditional US corn homes in Asia. The same Farm Futures survey referred to above said that US growers might still plant more than 90 million acres of corn in 2015, despite current low prices. The survey placed the actual number at 90.5 million acres, down a relatively modest 1.2% from the 91.6 million currently said to have been planted this year. Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.56, down 4 cents; Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.65, down 2 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed, although generally with small losses. Egypt's GASC bought Russian and Romanian wheat, with US material not even offered. They dropped their min hagberg requirement to 200, which encourage four (still unsuccessful) French offers. Persistent rains on the Northern Plains, and into Canada too, are said to be causing potential quality losses to spring wheat in the region. Farm Futures Magazine found that some growers on the Northern Plains might be wooed into giving soybeans a try next year, with 2015 US spring wheat planting intentions seen falling 8.6% to 11.6 million acres. The situation is completely different in Central and Southern Plains winter wheat areas though, due to current good soil moisture profiles. Winter wheat seedings, which are set to begin soon, could be up 3.1% on last year to 43.6 million the survey found. Russia's grain harvest is getting larger every day. The Ag Ministry there now say that the country had harvested 72.3 MMT of grains off 53.3% of the planned area. Wheat accounts for 46.7 MMT of that total off 54.9% of plan, with yields up 17.5% at 3.36 MT/ha. The Russian Ag Ministry today raided their forecast for Russian grain exports in 2014/15 to a potentially record 27.5-30.0 MMT, up from a previous estimate of 25-27 MMT. Sep 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.41 1/2, down 1 cent; Sep 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.21, down 1 3/4 cents; Sep 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.12 3/4, down 4 1/4 cents.
Corn: The corn market closed around 5 cents lower. ProFarmer didn't estimate US 2014 corn yields as high as they might have done on Friday, even if 169.3 bu/acre was almost 2 bu/acre above the USDA and easily a record number. Many still think that we will end up above 170 bu/acre. ProFarmer have underestimated both corn and soybean yields for the past two years in their August crop tour. US weather seems to be doing it's best to make this come true again this year. "Resistance stemmed from a general negative view towards the corn market and beneficial rains falling in areas of NW IA and NW ILL that have tended to be dry over the course of the last month. Additionally, many other key corn and soybean growing regions saw additional rainfall to complement the rains of last week. All in all, the environment looks good for late season development," said Benson Quinn Commodities. The USDA announced 113,673 MT of US corn sold to Costa Rica, along with 120,000 MT to Colombia for 2014/15 shipment under the daily reporting system. After the close the USDA raised good to excellent crop condition by one percentage point to 73% good to excellent versus only 59% this time last year. Illinois is at 82% good to excellent, with Iowa and Ohio at 75% and Indiana 73%. They said that 83% of the crop is at the dough stage versus 78% for the 5-year average, although denting still lags a little at 35% versus 43% for the 5-year norm. Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.60, down 5 1/2 cents; Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.67 1/2, down 4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower. If Ukraine/Russian tensions maybe didn't improve over the weekend, they didn't seem to get any worse either. Weakness in corn won't have helped wheat's cause today. Malaysia were reported to have bought 5,000 MT of Black Sea origin feed wheat for Sept shipment. Asian buyers are seen increasingly looking to the Black Sea for potentially cheap supplies of feed wheat over the next few months. Concerns that too much rain in spring wheat areas may be harming quality remain. The USDA said that the 2014 US spring wheat harvest was only 27% complete versus 49% normally at this time. Whilst Washington is 91% done compared to only 52% normally, The Dakotas and Minnesota are well behind. ND is only 10% complete versus 43% normally at this time, SD is at 57% compared to 87% on average and MN is 22% done versus 66% normally. Spring wheat crop conditions were cut 2 percentage points to 66% good to excellent, which is now a point behind this time last year. Russia said that it had now harvested 71.5 MMT of grains off 52.3% of the planned area, that includes 46.2 MMT of wheat off 53.8% of plan. Egypt's GASC are tendering for wheat for last-half September shipment overnight. US wheat is unlikely to feature, with Black Sea sellers once again the most likely winners on both price and freight. Traders said that US SRW wheat is probably around $10/tonne too expensive to be competitive. Sep 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.42 1/2, down 9 1/2 cents; Sep 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.22 3/4, down 10 3/4 cents; Sep 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.17, down 9 3/4 cents.
Corn: The corn market closed around 2-3 cents firmer, aided by spill over support from wheat which posted some decent gains early in the session on renewed tensions between Russia and Ukraine as Moscow sent it's "aid" convoy across the border without permission from anybody but itself. The final day of the ProFarmer crop tour estimated Iowa corn yields at 178.75 bu/acre versus 171.94 bu/acre a year ago and the 3-year average of 157.94 bu/acre. In Minnesota they pegged the average corn yield at 170.76 bu/acre versus 181.09 bu/acre a year ago and the 3 year average of 171.07 bu/acre. On a national level they placed 2014 yields at 169.3 bu/acre, up on the USDA's current 167.4 bu/acre estimate, but maybe not as high as some would have thought - even if that is a record number. ProFarmer put production at 14.093 billion bushels, higher than the USDA's 14.032 billion, but again not as high as it might have been. Lanworth today estimated US corn yields at 174.5 bu/acre. For what it's worth, this time last year ProFarmer forecast US corn yields at 154.1 bu/acre versus a final USDA estimate of 158.8 bu/acre. It would seem that whilst there is still some upside potential on final 2014 US corn and soybean yields then, the market has maybe found its place for now until more accurate final yield figures can be given. That will only happen once the harvest starts. On the weather front: "Hotter temperatures are developing this week in the Midwest. A warm ridge of high pressure – the Bermuda High – is expanding northward taking control of the eastern third of the United States. Midwest temperatures are expected to heat up into the high 80s F – low 90s F. With extreme heat comes high evaporation. Rainfall is expected to be heavy on most Midwest farms. These would be recurring showers, heavy some days, light on others, over the next 7 days. The best rainfall, 2.5 – 4 inches, is predicted in a wide swath of Nebraska and Iowa. Very substantial rainfall, 1.5 – 2 inches, is projected in southern Minnesota, western Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Elsewhere in the Midwest, lighter amounts of rainfall are predicted. The message is that corn and soybeans that miss heavy rainfall would be stressed by the extreme heat and high evaporation," said Martell Crop Projections. Managed money is tonight reported to be net long 64,719 contracts in corn as of Tuesday night. Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.65 1/2, up 3 1/4 cents; Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.71 1/2, up 2 1/2 cents. Sep 14 was virtually unchanged - down 1/4 cent - for the week.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher across the three exchanges, although ultimately finishing well off the highs of the day. Chicago wheat performed the least well of the three, ending around 8-10 cents below the intra-day highs. Kansas and Minneapolis wheat finished the session around 4-6 cents off the highs of the day. Once more, any sign of an increase in tension between Russia and Ukraine/the West sends the wheat market into a short-covering tizz. As well as sending it's "aid" convoy into Ukraine without permission, Russia is also again said to be building air and ground forces close to the border. Kiev is now said to be lining up a "show of strength" over the weekend, as it marks its independence day with a military parade in Kiev. The BBC report that pro-Russian separatists in Donetsk say that they will stage their own parade, including displaying captured soldiers. "As has been the case (recently), renewed tensions in the Black Sea region come to light on a Friday. They have helped, if not caused higher trade on Fridays. Through the last couple of late week dealings, news from this region over the weekend has been benign. Only time will tell, if issues escalate this weekend," noted Benson Quinn. This may be encouraging some to think that sitting out of the wheat market might be the best course of action at the moment, even if few seem to want to play it from the long side. Managed money was reported to have reduced their net short position in Chicago wheat by more than 10k lots for the week through to Tuesday night, although they still remain short in excess of 50k contracts. The wetter upper Midwest and northern US Plains might be welcome news for corn and soybeans, but there's some talk of it causing damage to spring wheat. The USDA cut the proportion of the crop rated good to excellent by 2 percentage points this week, and a further reduction could be on the cards on Monday night. These conditions will also be holding up the harvest, which was only 17% done a week ago, around half the pace of normal. Reports also suggest that newly harvested wheat in North Dakota and Canada is testing high in vomitoxin after a wet growing season. Quality problems remain an issue in Europe too, where Strategie Grains say only 59% of the crop will make milling standard versus 71% a year ago. Egypt might be back in the market next week it is thought. It will be interesting to see what, if anything, gets offered out of France and/or Germany. Sep 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.52, up 5 3/4 cents; Sep 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.33 1/2, up 11 1/2 cents; Sep 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.26 3/4, up 11 cents. For the week that puts the Chicago market little changed, up 3/4 of a cent with Kansas 13 3/4 cents higher and Minneapolis up 14 3/4 cents.
Soycomplex: Beans remain trading in a "game of two halves" as a football pundit might say. Old crop tightness due to strong demand for both beans and meal continues to support the front-end. The promise of a huge US harvest to come, likely followed up by record South American plantings weighs on the deferred positions. Reuters reported that members of Brazil's largest co-operative plan to increase their soybean planted area by 8.4% this year. New crop Nov 14 beans made a fresh contract low. Day three of the ProFarmer crop tour hit Illinois, finding an average bean pod count of 1,299.17 versus 1,115.97 a year ago and the 3 year average of 1,085.35 pods. In Western Iowa the pod count was 1,091-1,224 versus 802.98-1,101.49 a year ago and the 3 year average of 962-1,091 pods. The final day of the tour concludes in Minnesota and the rest of Iowa today. Final data from the tour is due out on Friday. Chinese customs data showed that the country imported almost 7.5 MMT of soybeans in July, taking Jan/Jul imports to 41.7 MMT, a 20% hike compared to the same period in 2013. Of that total almost 21 MMT came from Brazil, and a further 17.3 MMT from the US. Weekly export sales came in at negative 89,600 MT on old crop and a net 1,420,600 MT on new crop, the latter being primarily for China (947,900 MT). Meal sales were 99,800 MT on old crop and 78,600 MT on new crop. The 2013/14 marketing year finishes at the end of August. The US has now shipped 44.2 MMT of soybeans this season, with outstanding sales of a further 1.85 MMT. The current USDA forecast is for net exports of 44.6 MMT in 2013/14. Lanworth estimated US 2014 soybean yields at a record 46.7 bu/acre versus a previous estimate of 46.4 bu/acre, and 1.3 bu/acre more than the where the USDA currently sit. Lanworth now put the US 2014 soybean crop at 3.855 billion bushels versus a previous estimate of 3.806 billion and the USDA's 3.816 billion. Stats Canada estimated the 2014 canola crop there ar 13.9 MMT versus the average trade guess of 14.5 MMT and production of nearly 18 MMT a year ago. They see the Canadian soybean crop at 5.9 MMT versus the average trade estimate of 6.1 MMT, although still significantly higher than 5.2 MMT a year ago. Sep 14 Soybeans closed at $11.36 1/4, up 16 1/2 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $10.38 1/4, up 1/4 cent; Sep 14 Soybean Meal closed at $413.80, up $11.20; Sep 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.78, down 8 points.
Corn: The corn market closed a cent or two higher. Despite new crop soybeans setting contract lows, the pull to plant beans instead of corn or wheat is still quite strong. The same Brazilian co-op that said they'd be increasing their soybean plantings for 2014/15 also said that they'd reduce the area given over to corn by around 9%. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange also said that Argentine farmers would reduce their corn area later this year by around 10% to 3.2 million hectares. They estimated that the 2013/14 Argentine corn harvest was now 94.2% complete at close to 24 MMT, leaving their final production forecast unchanged at 25 MMT. Day three of the ProFarmer crop tour entered Illinois, where the average corn yield this year was estimated at a record 196.96 bu/acre versus 170.48 bu/acre a year ago and the 3 year average of 149.36 bu/acre. In Western Iowa they found an average corn yield of 177.48-180.90 bu/acre versus 160.12–175.65 bu/acre a year ago and the 3 year average of 146.77-170.72 bu/acre. The Chinese insatiable appetite for soybean imports doesn't extend to corn. They only imported 86,369 MT of that last month, soybean imports were more than 86 times higher than that! China's Jan/Jul corn import total is now 1.46 MMT, down more than 8% versus the same period in 2013. America's corn exports to China are down 37% so far this year. Weekly export sales came in at just under 100 TMT of old crop, along with 719,300 MT of new crop. Old crop shipments to date are just under 44.9 MMT, with a further 3.85 MMT of outstanding sales. The USDA forecast for the season is for exports of 49 MMT, which now clearly looks unlikely, leaving a larger than anticipated ending stocks situation to carry over into what looks like being a huge 2014/15 production year. Lanworth estimated US 2014 corn yields at a record large 174.5 bu/acre, even if that is down a little on their previous estimate of 174.8 bu/acre. The USDA are more than 7 bu/acre lower than that at 167.4 bu/acre. Lanworth put production this year at 14.734 billion bushels versus a previous estimate of 14.766 billion and the USDA's 14.032 billion. Commodity Weather Group estimated US corn yields at 171.5 bu/acre versus a previous estimate of 171.0 bu/acre. Stats Canada estimated the corn crop there this year at 11.43 MMT, just below the average trade guess of 11.5 MMT and up slightly on 11.3 MMT a year ago. Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.62, up 2 1/2 cents; Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.68 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher. Stats Canada pegged the Canadian all wheat crop below expectations of 28.5 MMT at 27.7 MMT, and a 26% reduction on last year's record. Weekly export sales weren't great at 209,200 MT, being down 38 percent from the previous week and 62 percent below the prior 4-week average. That was the smallest weekly figure of the marketing year so far. That began on June 1. Significantly Brazil cancelled 58,800 MT now that they've re-introduced the 10% import duty on wheat shipped in from outside the Mercosur trade group. Japan bought 146,858 MT of milling wheat for Sept-Nov shipment. The breakdown was: 37,885 MT of western white US wheat; 20,480 MT of HRW US wheat; 31,421 MT of dark northern spring US wheat; 26,657 MT of Canadian western red spring wheat; 30,415 MT of Australian white wheat. China said that it had imported 116,718 MT of wheat in July, down 62.2% from a year ago. Jan/Jul imports are now 2.67 MMT, which is up 56.6% from a year ago. Of that total 782,527MT has come from the US, up 38% from a year ago. They are also importing large volumes of barley, with the Jan/Jun total at 3.2 MMT, up 167% from a year ago. The Argentine Ag Ministry estimated the 2014/15 Argentina wheat area at 4.5 million hectares, unchanged from their previous estimate and versus the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimate of 4.1 million. Plantings last year were only 3.65 million ha. The Ukraine Ag Ministry estimated their 2014/15 exportable grain surplus at 30.0 MMT or more, saying that there was no need to restrict milling wheat exports, effectively because the market would regulate itself. Russia said that they'd now harvested 68.5 MMT of grain so far this year off less than 49% of the planned area. That total includes 45.1 MMT of wheat off barely more than 50% of plan, plus a further 14.7 MMT of barley off 58.5% of plan. Russian grain exports are flying, with those in July being a record for that particular month, and those in August now forecast to be the highest for any month ever. Reuters reported that France are importing milling wheat from Lithuania and the UK. Strategie Grains increased their estimate for the proportion of French crop wheat crop that will cut the milling wheat mustard to 64% from 62% previously, although still well behind 88% a year ago. Sep 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.46 1/4, up 6 3/4 cents; Sep 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.22, up 3 1/4 cents; Sep 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.16, up 5 3/4 cents.
Corn: The corn market closed around 3-5 cents lower as the trade anticipates a huge US corn crop to be on the way again this year. Day two of the ProFarmer crop tour reported Indiana corn yields estimated at a record 185.03 bu/acre versus 167.36 bu/acre a year ago and far higher than the 3 year average of 141.24 bu/acre. In Nebraska corn yields were estimated at 163.77 bu/acre versus 154.93 bu/acre a year ago and the 3 year average of only 146.81 bu/acre. Allendale said the tour will likely find even bigger crop yields when it moves into the top producing states of Iowa and Illinois today. Hear that Dr Cordonnier estimated 2014 national US corn yields at a record 169.0 bu/acre, unchanged from his previous estimate. The early 2014 Russian corn harvest is now underway in the south of the country. Ukraine are a little further away from the beginning of their harvest. Both are expected to be eager sellers as soon as they get their new crop in. Ukraine new crop corn is reportedly offered around $182/tonne FOB the Black Sea. On the US weather front "The forecast continues very wet, though rainfall to date has been disappointing. A swath of very heavy rainfall, 3-4 inches, is predicted in eastern Nebraska, Iowa, southern Minnesota and Wisconsin this week," said Martell Crop Projections. Trade expectations for tomorrow's weekly export sales for corn are around 750 TMT to 1.1 MMT. Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.59 1/2, down 3 cents; Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.67 1/2, down 4 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed around 6 cents lower across all three exchanges. Taiwan is tendering for 99,410 MT of US milling wheat for Oct-Nov shipment. Japan are tendering for 146,858 MT of milling wheat for Sept-Nov shipment in their regular combo of US, Canadian and Australian origin. The Russian grain harvest tonight stands at 67.2 MMT, according to the Ag Ministry, with average yields of 3.04 MT/ha representing a 19.2% rise on this time last year. Wheat accounts for 44.9 MMT of that total, with barley adding a further 14.3 MMT. Kazakhstan said that it could export as much as 8 MMT of grain this season, despite a fall in production, due to it having fairly large carryover stocks from last year's harvest. Exports in 2013/14 were 8.7 MMT, according to the Ag Ministry. Stats Canada are out tomorrow with their latest crop production estimates. The average trade guess for the Canadian all wheat crop is around 28.5 MMT, although the range of estimates is quite wide at 26.2-34.5 MMT. Production last year was a record 37.5 MMT. There's much talk about the quality of this year's Ukraine wheat crop, and their relative recent absence from the milling wheat export market. Now we hear that Ukraine flour millers have asked for a temporary halt on milling wheat exports until a proper assessment of the quality of this year's crop can be done. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 500-600 TMT. Sep 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.39 1/2, down 6 1/2 cents; Sep 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.18 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents; Sep 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.10 1/4, down 6 1/2 cents.
Corn: The corn market closed slightly higher. Yesterday's one point drop in crop condition ratings from the USDA was a little supportive, although 72% good/excellent is still a high number. There was a bit of support from a firmer wheat market. The vibe coming back from the ProFarmer crop tour is mixed. Yesterday's results threw up a potential Ohio corn yield estimate of 182.11 bu/acre versus 171.64 bu/acre a year ago and far higher than the 3 year average of 146.13 bu/acre. In South Dakota the 2014 corn yield was estimated at 152.71 bu/acre versus 161.75 bu/acre a year ago and the 3 year average of 125.70 bu/acre. Today the tour moved on to Nebraska, where they estimated the average corn yield at 163.77 bu/acre versus the 154.93 bu/acre estimated by the tour last year and the group's three-year average of 146.81 bu/acre. Things look even better in Indiana where they forecast a 2014 corn yield of 185.03 bu/acre, up from last year’s 167.36 bu/acre and much better than the three-year tour average of 141.24 bu/acre. That figure, if achieved, would be a record for the state. US weather forecasts remain mostly favourable, with rain moving through Illinois into Indiana today. The market still believes that average 2014 US yields will end up around the 170 bu/acre mark. Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.62 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents; Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.72 1/4, up 3/4 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market closed firmer, although well off the day's highs. A news report that suggested that the Ukraine PM had said that the country could lose 15% of it's grain crop this year due to the ongoing fighting in the east was probably to blame. That would indeed be a bullish factor, should it be true. Consider though that the Ukraine Ministry have already said this week that the early grain harvest is already 98% complete on a national level. A spokesman for the PM later said that this referred to 15% of the crop in the regions where the fighting is taking place, Donetsk and Luhansk, where last year's grain harvest was 2.2 MMT and 1.3 MMT respectively. That equates to around a combined (or in this case not combined, if you get the pun) 525 TMT of grain lost. That's hardly a market-moving volume in the overall scheme of things, and the vast majority of that tonnage is likely to be corn. Exports from the country appear to be continuing as normal. The Ukraine Ministry said that the country had exported 3.578 MMT of grains so far this season, including 1.739 MMT of wheat, 1.428 MMT of barley and 368 TMT of corn. Germany's DBV raised their forecast for the country's 2014 grain harvest to 50 MMT, including 26.2 MMT of wheat. The latter is up from a previous forecast of 24.6 MMT and compares to 25 MMT a year ago. Sep 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.46, up 3 1/2 cents; Sep 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.24 1/2, up 6 3/4 cents; Sep 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.16 3/4, up 8 1/2 cents.
Soycomplex: Beans closed higher, with the largest gains at the front end. Today was the first day of the ProFarmer US Midwest crop tour. Reports back from that suggest lower pod counts that last year in some parts of Ohio and South Dakota. The tour concludes on Thursday, with the results expected to be released on Friday. Brazil Abiove estimated the country's 2014 bean exports at 45.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 44.0 MMT and compared to 2013 exports of 42.8 MMT. Oil World estimated this year's Canadian canola crop at 14.7 MMT, up from a previous estimate of 14.5 MMT but down 18% versus last year's record crop of 18.0 MMT. They estimated Canada’s 2014/15 canola exports at 7.8 MMT versus 9.3 MMT in 2013/14. Stats Canada release their estimates on Thursday. Weekly export inspections for beans today were 56,210 MT, which was in line with expectations. After the close the USDA reported that 71% of this year's US soybean crop was in good to excellent condition, up a point on a week ago. They said that 83% of the crop was setting pods versus 72% a week ago and 79% for the 5-year average. China are to to auction 338,700 MT of beans from reserves overnight. Sep 14 Soybeans closed at $11.15 1/2, up 13 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $10.57 3/4, up 5 3/4 cents; Sep 14 Soybean Meal closed at $392.10, up $3.80; Sep 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.96, up 9 points.
Corn: The corn market closed around 5 cents lower. Reports from day one of the ProFarmer crop tour suggest significantly better yield potential than a year ago. In Ohio, through 9 stops, the average corn yield was estimated at 178.5 bu/acre versus 159.5 bu/acre a year ago and 141.0 bu/acre for the 3-year average. The hot and humid weather forecast could speed up corn development if it verifies. The USDA cut their corn good to excellent ratings by one percentage point to 72% after the close. A year ago 61% of the crop was rated in the top two categories. You may recall that last week's report said that 11% of the crop had dented versus the 5-year average of 16%, the first hint that crop development this year may have been a little retarded by the persistent cool Midwest conditions. That number was up this week to 22%, although that's still 5 points behind the 5-year average. Weekly export inspections came in at 970,874 MT, which was at the top end of trade expectations. Reports of a much higher volume of feed wheat being expected from this year's crop in Europe, Ukraine and possibly Russia too leans bearish for corn demand. FranceAgriMer said on Friday that 85% of the French corn crop is in good to very good condition, up a point on a week ago and fully 31 points ahead of last year. Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.60 3/4, down 5 cents; Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.71 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower. News that Brazil was to re-instate the 10% tariff on wheat imports from outside the Mercosur trade bloc was bearish for US wheat. The duty was suspended in 2013, and the US quickly took advantage providing Brazil with almost half (3.47 MMT) of its wheat imports that year. They've also been a regular buyer of US wheat during 2014 so far. The reintroduction of this duty starts immediately. Brazil will begin its 2014 wheat harvest in the state of Parana within the next few weeks. A sharp rise in output is expected this year, as it also is in neighbouring Argentina - traditionally Brazil's main wheat supplier. Production in both countries has been poor for the last 2 years, providing US wheat with a window of opportunity that now looks like closing. FCStone upped their EU-28 wheat production estimate by 3.1 MMT to 149.9 MMT. Dry areas of Eastern Australia were said to have picked up the decent rains that were in the forecast over the weekend, boosting wheat production potential there. India tweaked higher their 2013/14 wheat production estimate to a record 95.91 MMT. Ukraine said that it's wheat and barley harvests were 98% complete at 24.1 MMT and 9.3 MMT respectively. Weekly export inspections were friendly at 596,675 MT. The USDA said that spring wheat crop conditions were down 2 points on last week to 68% good/excellent. Sep 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.42 1/2, down 8 3/4 cents; Sep 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.17 3/4, down 2 cents; Sep 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.08 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents.
Soycomplex: Beans closed mostly a little lower. The FSA reported "prevent plant" US soybean acres this year at 827k which is much lower than a year ago, although higher than the trade was expecting. The NOPA crush number for July came in at 119.6 million bushels, which was above the average trade guess of 115.8 million and above the highest estimate given. The USDA reported 110,000 MT of soybeans sold to China for 2014/15 shipment. All that sounds friendly, and it is, but it was still usurped by the wet forecast for the week ahead. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said that Argentine sunflower plantings are 7.3% complete versus 4.5% a week ago and 8.5% a year ago. They estimated the 2014/15 sunflower planting area at 1.4 million hectares, unchanged from their previous estimate. The USDA will release updated US crop condition ratings on Monday. Last week's report had this year's US soybean crop rated 70% good to excellent. There's not expected to be much deviance from that this week, maybe one point either way. Sep 14 Soybeans closed at $11.02 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $10.52, down 4 cents; Sep 14 Soybean Meal closed at $388.30, up $5.90; Sep 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.87, down 64 points. For the week beans lost $1.82 1/4 on a front month basis following the expiry of the Aug 14 contract, meal was down $9.20 and oil fell 257 points to a new 5-year low. Malaysian palm oil prices are also at 5-year lows on the strong ringgit and slack demand.
Corn: The corn market closed 3-4 cents higher. The FAS reported prevented plantings this spring of 1.541 million acres of US corn. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said that the Argentine corn harvest was 88.4% complete versus 83.9% a week ago and 98.8% a year ago. They have the 2013/14 corn crop estimated at 25.0 MMT, unchanged from previous forecast, but 2 MMT down from a year ago. Given favourable conditions, the harvest should be over in the next fortnight, they added. Dryness is seen potentially reducing corn output in Russia, Ukraine and China versus current USDA estimates. Stats Canada are due out with their latest crop production estimates next Thursday. For Canadian corn production the average estimate 11.5 MMT, from within a range of estimates of 10.7-12.0 MMT. The Ag Canada July estimate was 11.305 MMT and the 2013 corn crop was 14.19 MMT. China sold 1.7 MMT of corn at this week’s auction, or around a third of the total volume offered. Monday's USDA crop condition ratings for the 2014 US corn crop aren't expected to reveal any great change from last week's 73% good to excellent rating. The closely followed Pro Farmer US Midwest crop tour starts on Monday and ends Thursday. The trade will be looking to that for confirmation that this week's US yield estimate of 167.4 bu/acre was indeed too low, and that somewhere like 170+ bu/acre is nearer the mark. A high number could have corn back under pressure late next week. Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.65 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents; Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.77, up 3 1/2 cents. For the week corn added 14 cents on front month Sep 14.
Wheat: The wheat market jumped on heightened Russian/Ukraine tensions. Various reports said that Ukraine forces had attacked and partly destroyed a Russian armoured column's move into it's territory. A Russian "aid" convoy remains poised at the Ukraine border. That was enough to prompt nervous short-covering. The latest Commitment of Traders report showed managed money holding a net short position of 61,124 contracts in CBOT wheat, which is 5,909 less than a week ago, but still a sizable risk. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said that Argentine wheat planting is 98.2% complete versus 94.2% a week ago and 99.5% a year ago. They trimmed their 2014 wheat planted area estimated to 4.1 million hectares versus a previous estimate of 4.2 million, although that's still up 13.25% versus 3.62 million a year ago. "Frequent and abundant rainfall" is behind the reduction, they said. For Stats Canada's crop report next week the average all wheat production estimate is 28.5 MMT, from within a range of estimates of 26.2-34.5 MMT. The Ag Canada July estimate was 27.74 MMT and the 2013 all wheat crop was 37.53 MMT. Russia's grain harvest now stands at 63.1 MMT, off 43% of the planned area. This time a year ago the harvest was only at 50.1 MMT. Wheat accounts for 44 MMT of that total off 49% of plan, with barley adding a further 12.5 MMT off 48% of plan. The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that their early grain harvest is more or less done, producing a wheat crop of 23.8 MMT in bunker weight. They said that 40% of this year's wheat crop is only suitable to be used for feed versus 25% a year ago. Sep 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.51 1/4, up 14 cents; Sep 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.19 3/4, up 11 3/4 cents; Sep 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.12, up 6 1/4 cents. For the week Chicago wheat was up 1 3/4 cents, with Kansas closing down 9 1/2 cents and Minneapolis ending down 6 3/4 cents.
Corn: The corn market closed around 3-4 cents firmer. Weekly export sales came in at negative 117,100 MT on old crop and 787,800 MT for new crop. That was a bit below where they were expected to be (750 TMT to 1 MMT). Strategie Grains estimated the EU-28 corn crop at 68.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 66.4 MMT. Germany's DRV forecast corn production there up 13.7% this year at close to 5 MMT despite a lower planted area due to significantly higher yields. MDA CropCast forecast the US 2014 corn crop at 14.43 billion bushels, down 14 million from a week ago. South Korea Kocopia bought 55,000 MT of optional origin corn for Dec shipment. Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.62, up 4 cents; Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.73 1/2, up 3 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher, consolidating from a run of five losing sessions in a row, despite disappointing weekly export sales of only 338,700 MT versus the expected 450-650 TMT. Strategie Grains forecast the EU-28 soft wheat crop at 144.1 MMT, up 3.7 MMT from a month ago and 6% up versus 2013. MDA CropCast increased their forecast for the world wheat crop by 8.2 MMT from a week ago, including a 6.1 MMT hike for Russia where impressive yields continue to be reported. They also increased China by 2 MMT. Russia said that they'd harvested 61.1 MMT of grains so far this year. That includes 43.6 MMT of wheat off less than half the planned area. There's talk that some analysts are now estimating Russia’s wheat crop at 61-63 MMT versus the USDA's estimate of 59 MMT. Sep 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.37 1/4, up 9 1/4 cents; Sep 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.08, up 4 cents; Sep 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.05 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents.