Corn: The corn market finished the day sharply lower. A wetter outlook for
the Midwest and book squaring ahead of tomorrow's USDA report was enough to
take the shine off corn. Guesses for acreage tomorrow vary from 91.5 to 94 million
acres. The March figure was 93.601 million. The average guess for June 1 US
corn stocks sits at 4.52 billion bushels in a Bloomberg survey. Good weekly
export sales are expected tomorrow, at 700,000 MT to 1.0 MMT for old crop corn,
and from 300,000 to 450,000 MT for new crop. The Arg Ag Min said that corn plantings
there might rise 20% next year due to new government rules on exports, the trade
think that +30% could be on the cards. Seed merchants say that sales for 2016/17
are already running at around 60-70% versus only 10% this time last year under
the old Macri government. South Africa's CEC estimates the corn crop there at
7.16 MMT and 2016/17 imports at 3.8 MMT. Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.72 3/4, down
12 1/2 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.77 3/4, down 11 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower. In a Bloomberg survey, June 1 US wheat
stocks are estimated to be 0.983 billion bushels on average in tomorrow's USDA
report. Stats Canada estimated 2016 Canadian all-wheat plantings at 23.18 million
acres this morning. That was down from its March estimate of 23.85 million acres,
and smaller than the average pre-report trade analyst estimate of 23.4 million
acres. Russia said that they had harvested 2.1 MMT of grains so far with average
yields at 4.36 MT/ha (3.98 MT/ha in 2015). ProZerno said the country would export
34.8 MMT of grains in 2015/16 rising to 36.7 MMT in 2016/17 - the latter including
more than 26 MMT of wheat. Jordan bought 100,000 MT of optional origin hard
wheat at $204.50 C&F for Dec/Jan shipment. Trade estimates for tomorrow's
weekly export sales report are 300-500,000 MT. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at
$4.29 1/2, down 14 1/4 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.00, down 8 3/4
cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.06, down 7 1/4 cents.
Corn: The corn market closed around unchanged, with continued dry weather forecasts
a worry. In last night's crop condition report from the USDA Illinois and Kansas
dropped 4 points. Missouri dropped 3. North Dakota dropped 5 points in the good
to excellent categories. Overall though the USDA left G/E unchanged when the
trade was expecting a 2 point or so decline. Dollar strength is a concern for
US exports. Talk of lower than projected US plantings this year also underpins
a market where fund money is heavily long. A downwards correction can't be ruled
out if something spooks them all at the same time though. The corn harvest in
Brazil's top state of Mato Grosso is said to be 16.6% done and yields are down,
production could be 23% lower than last year say IMEA. Jul 16 Corn closed at
$3.85 1/4, unchanged; Sep 16 Corn closed at $3.98 3/4, down 1/2 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mostly a touch lower. Fresh news was scarce.
China offered 2.5 MMT of wheat from state reserves up for auction and was hardly
knocked over in the rush selling only 22 TMT. US winter wheat harvesting is
45% complete and crop conditions improved week over week, said the USDA last
night. The combines are rolling in Russia and Ukraine and good crops are expected
there this year. I've even heard of spring barley being cut in Russia! Early
yields are said to be ominously good. It looks therefore like another strong
export campaign can be expected from both again this year. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat
closed at $4.43 3/4, down 3 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat is at $4.8 3/4, down 4
cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat is at $5.13 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents.
Corn: The market closed little changed. A drier weekend than expected and the
forecast for more of the same was supportive. Weaker wheat and lower crude weren't
however. There's talk that Russian and Ukraine corn crops are developing well
under near ideal conditions. The Russian Ag Min said that they'd exported 4.68
MMT of corn so far this season. The USDA said that 6% of the national corn crop
is at the silking stage (5% on average) and left good to excellent crop conditions
unchanged at 75%. Export inspections during the week ending last Thursday reached
a better than expected 1.451 MMT, up 17.5% week over week, and 39.4% larger
than the same week in 2015. It remains to be seen if the current dollar strength
starts to eat into these. Ukraine seaports exported 230,600 MT of corn ast week,
according to APK Inform. Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.85 1/4, up 3/4 cent; Sep
16 Corn settled at $3.89 1/4, up 1/4 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market finished lower on dollar strength and harvest pressure.
The move came despite decent weekly export inspections of 511,701 MT. Whilst
western European wheat may be struggling, conditions look better further east.
National Bank Ukraine said that the country might harvest 60-61 MMT of grains
this year, and in Russia they could bring in a crop even higher than last year
it is now thought. They've started harvesting in both countries now, with the
Stavropol area of Russia already past the 1 MMT mark, with early yields up 12.5%
on last year at 4.42 MT/ha. The USDA FAS in Bulgaria said that the country would
harvest in excess of 5 MMT of wheat this year (versus 4.6 MMT last year). Plantings
were up 12% and 87% of the crop is currently in good condition, they said. This
should facilitate exports in excess of 3 MMT, they added. The USDA said that
the winter wheat harvest is 45% done. Spring wheat conditions fell 2 points
to 72% G/E. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.46 3/4, down 8 cents; Jul 16 KCBT
Wheat settled at $4.12 3/4, down 10 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.14
3/4, down 11 3/4 cents.
Corn: The corn market closed lower as part of a general "risk-off"
moved ahead of the UK vote on European membership. Weekly export sales of 870,744
MT on old crop and new crop sales of 550,318 MT were in line with trade ideas.
Private exporters announced private exporters announced that 138,000 MT of US
corn was sold to South Korea under the daily reporting system. The Buenos Aires
Grain Exchange increased their ideas on Argentine corn production by 3 MMT,
raising that from 25 MMT to 28 MMT. Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.87 1/4, down 5
3/4 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.92 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower in line with the rest of the sector. Weekly
export sales were fair at 462,700 MT. Better than expected yields are what is
getting reported back from the early winter wheat harvest on the Plains. Japan
purchased 59,150 MT of US wheat, along with a combined 60,838 MT from Australian
and Canadian sources in its regular weekly tender. European wheat closed lower
again ahead of the referendum results form the UK on EU membership. Jul 16 CBOT
Wheat settled at $4.54 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.27
3/4, down 5 1/4 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.31, down 3 3/4 cents.
Corn: The market
closed sharply lower. An improved weather outlook was all it took to encourage
some longs to exit the market. Believe it or not, recent prices have been the
highest available to the grower d=for 12 months, so some liquidation should
not come a surprise. There's still a long way to go. Russia reported that their
corn crop for the 2016 harvest is 93.8% planted on 2.8 million ha. South Korea's
KFA are in the market tendering for 126,000 MT of optional origin corn. Jul
16 Corn settled at $3.96 1/4, down 25 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $4.02 1/4,
down 24 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat
market finished lower across the board. Russia reported spring wheat plantings
complete on 13.6 million ha, which is 103.3% of the plan. Jordan cancelled on
their tender to import 100,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat and immediately
re-tendered for the same, as well as 100,000 MT of optional origin barley. Algeria
are in the market for 50,000 MT of optional origin soft wheat. There are reports
of early harvesting having started in Ukraine/Crimea. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled
at $4.58 1/2, down 14 1/2 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.35, down 16
1/4 cents;Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.34 1/2, down 9 1/4 cents.
Corn: The corn market finished the day with hefty losses, falling from last
night's one-year high. A wetter outlook for the week ahead sparked the sell-off.
Weekly export inspections of 1.235 MMT were pretty good, even if they were down
nearly 28% from the previous week. Customs data shows that Ukraine seaports
exported 105 TMT of corn last week, and Russian seaports only 12,7 TMT. Russia's
corn exports to date this season ate 4.62 MMT. South Korea bought 328,000 MT
of optional origin corn in a tender for Oct/Nov shipment over the weekend. They
are also seen buying feed wheat in preference to corn. After the close the USDA
said that 75% of the US corn crop was in good to excellent condition, unchanged
on last week. It was generally expected to be 1 to 2% lower due to last week’s
high temperatures. No figure was given on emergence which is now assumed at
100%. Jul 16 Corn settled at $4.21 1/4, down 16 1/2 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled
at $4.26 3/4, down 16 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower, reversing most of Friday's gains. Weekly
export inspections are showing signs of picking up. These were 571,724 MT last
week, up from 363,803 MT the previous week and nearly 68% larger than the same
week in 2015. The USDA said that the 2016 US winter wheat harvest was 25% done,
3 points behind average, but 14 up on the week. Crop conditions were unchanged
at 61% good to excellent. Spring wheat conditions in the good to excellent category
fell 3 points to 76%. Spring wheat at the headed stage was 28%, double the norm.
Ag Canada estimated grain stocks there at 9.95 MMT versus 10.2 MMT previously,
They see 2016/17 carryout at 9.38 MMT, with exports at 38.43 MMT. Saudi Arabia
and South Korea bought bought wheat, and Jordan are tendering for wheat. Russia
said that it's grain exports so far this season were 12% ahead of last year
at 33.28 MMT, of which wheat accounts for 72.45%. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled
at $4.73, down 8 1/4 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.51 1/4, down 9 1/2
cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.43 3/4, down 5 cents.
Corn: The corn market closed higher on the day and for the week. Forecasts
for a hot and dry Midwest weekend encouraged some short-covering. Tonight's
close on the July contract was the highest on a front month since June 2014.
The Argentinean corn harvest was estimated to be 35% complete by the Buenos
Aires Grain Exchange, with production also unaltered at 25 MMT. Russia's IKAR
said that the country might produce a 13.5 MMT corn harvest this year. Weather
models Monday will decide next week's direction. A bit cooler but still little
rain is what's in the latest forecasts. Jul 16 Corn settled at $4.37 3/4, up
12 1/2 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $4.42 3/4, up 12 1/4 cents. For the week
that puts Jul corn up 14 cents, with Sep up 16 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher, helped by rising bean and corn values.
Strategie Grains were unchanged on EU soft wheat production at 146.7 MMT. They
see exports are only 29.9 MMT versus the USDA's all wheat estimate of 35.5 MMT.
FranceAgriMer cut French wheat crop ratings by 3 points to 75% good to very
good, now 10 points behind year ago levels. IKAR raised their view on this year's
Russian grain crop to a post-Soviet era record 108.8 MMT (up 4 MMT on last year).
They see wheat output at 34.5 MMT (record), with barley at 15.5 MMT and corn
at 13.5 MMT. Saudi Arabia are tendering for wheat over the weekend. Result due
Monday. The Rosairo Board of Trade estimates that intended Argentinean wheat
plantings are 40% complete. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.81 1/4, up 8 3/4
cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.60 3/4, up 10 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat
settled at $5.48 3/4, up 10 cents.
Corn: The market closed lower. Weekly export sales of sales of 909,700 MT for
2015/2016 were down 39 percent from the previous week and 36 percent from the
prior 4-week average. For 2016/2017, net sales of 178,700 MT were reported for
unknown destinations (42,700 MT), Mexico (40,000 MT), Japan (30,500 MT), and
Panama (21,500 MT). Exports of 1,507,900 MT were a marketing-year high and were
up 27 percent from the previous week and 42 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Jul 16 Corn settled at $4.25 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents;p Sep 16 Corn settled at
$4.30 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market finished lower. Weekly export sales of 762,900 MT were
reported for delivery in marketing year 2016/2017, which was better than expected.
Exports of 351,800 MT were reported to Japan (74,300 MT), the Philippines (50,500
MT), Mexico (46,300 MT), Nigeria (43,200 MT), Guatemala (36,900 MT) and Peru
(34,400 MT). Saudi Arabia are tendering for 300,000 MT of hard wheat. Algeria
bought 150,000 MT of optional origin (EU/Black Sea?) wheat for new crop shipment.
Japan bought US/Canadian/Oz wheat. Egypt might be back in the market soon it
is thought. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.84 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents; Sep 16
KCBT Wheat settled at $4.68 1/2, down 6 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at
$5.38 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents.
Corn: The corn market finished the day reversing all of Tuesday's losses. Again,
this was despite their being some friendly information about. The US Energy
Dept put weekly US ethanol production at an all time high 1.013 million barrels
per day, and up 7,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Russia said it's
2016 corn crop was 93% planted. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weely export
sales report for corn range from 800,000 MT to 1.6 MMT. Jul 16 Corn settled
at $4.29, down 7 1/2 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $4.34, down 7 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower. The Argentine Ag Min said that wheat
plantings there for the 2016/17 harvest could grow 23% to 5 million ha. Production
could therefore increase 36% to 15.37 MMT, with exports rising to 9 MMT, of
which 5 MMT could go to neighbouring Brazil, they said. It's not out of the
way, Argentina has produced and exported these sorts of volumes before. Japan
tendered for 112,900 MT of wheat in it;s regular weekly tender. The origins
specified are US, Canadian and Australian. Weekly export sales tomorrow are
expected in the region of 250-450 TMT. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.77 1/2,
down 7 1/2 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.56 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents;
Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.40 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents.
Corn: The corn market closed higher. Private exporters reported that 136,000
MT of US corn was sold to Japan this morning, with 60,000 MT of that slated
for 2015/16 delivery. A few reports of hot and dry weather hurting the newly
sown US crop are doing the rounds. That maybe enough to encourage some short-covering.
It's still very early and US crop prospects are still good however. The prospect
of a UK vote whether or not to leave the EU next week is maybe prompting some
nervousness. Jul 16 Corn settled at $4.36 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled
at $4.41 3/4, up 6 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower on harvest pressure. The USDA peg the
2016 US winter wheat harvest at 11% complete as of Sunday night. Unlike beans
and corn there were no daily export sales to support a wheat fully aware of
competitive pressures elsewhere. ABARES increased their forecast for the Australian
wheat crop to 25.4 MMT vs the 24.5 MMT previously expected. One or two concerns
remain over French wheat, although carryover stocks from last season are large.
Quality downgrades could be the biggest threat there this year. Jul 16 CBOT
Wheat settled at $4.85, down 6 1/4 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.58
1/2, down 2 1/4 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.43 1/4, down 6 3/4 cents.