Corn: The market closed around 4 cents lower. Weekly export sales of 71,100
MT for 2015/16 were a marketing-year low, but then again there are only a few
weeks left in that campaign. Sales of 1,059,900 MT were reported on new crop
corn. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates Argentine corn harvest 93% complete.
The IGC estimated the world corn crop at 1030 MMT vs 1017 MMT last month and
969 MMT last year. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment on corn
found 5 bulls, 8 bears and 13 neutrals. China shifted 0.5 MMT of the 3.2 MMT
of corn on offer at their latest corn auction. The ProFarmer crop tour is getting
close to wrapping up its crop findings for the year. They are generally below
the USDA on corn yields, and this year is expected to be no exception. Current
guesses are 169-172 bpa vs the USDA's recent 175.1 bpa. Sep 16 Corn settled
at $3.23 1/2, down 4 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.32, down 4 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed around 2-4 cents lower. Weekly export sales
came in at 379,700 MT for 2016/17 - down 22 percent from the previous week and
21 percent from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 564,000 MT were down 21
percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average.
The primary destinations were Indonesia (83,200 MT), Taiwan (56,900 MT), Colombia
(56,600 MT), Chile (46,800 MT) and Venezuela (41,000 MT). A Bloomberg survey
into trader/analyst sentiment on wheat found 3 bulls, 13 bears and 10 neutrals.
The Russian wheat crop keeps getting larger with SovEcon raising their estimate
to 73 MMT. The French wheat harvest is officially over, and despite their production
problems Nord Cereales have suspended delivery into their Dunkirk silo due to
lack of available space. The IGC raised world wheat production to 743 MMT, up
from 735 MMT last month. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.01 1/4, down 2 3/4
cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.05 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents; Sep 16 MGEX
Wheat settled at $4.97 3/4, down 4 cents.
Corn: Corn closed a little lower. Weekly US ethanol production came in at a
close to record 1.028 million barrels per day last week. As with beans as the
ProFarmer crop tour progresses better yield potential is being unearthed. IMEA
report that 4.2% of the Mato Grosso, Brazil, corn acreage has been abandoned
due to hot and dry conditions. Sep 16 Corn closed at $3.27 1/2, down 1 cent;
Dec 16 Corn closed at $3.36 1/4, down 1 cent.
Wheat: Wheat closed mostly lower, with Chicago wheat hitting fresh contract
lows. Bullish news is lacking, save for the demise of the French crop, but that
is old hat now. There's no shortage elsewhere as Stats Canada helped point out
yesterday. The Russian Ag Ministry said that this year's harvest was 59.1% complete
at 86.9 MMT. That includes 58.9 MMT of wheat off 62.6% of the planned area,
along with 15.2 MMT of barley (73% of plan). Sep 16 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.04,
down 3 3/4 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.07 3/4, up 1/2 cent; Sep 16
MGEX Wheat closed at $5.01 3/4, down 8 cents.
Corn: The corn market closed around 4-5 cents lower. Fresh news was lacking.
The USDA surprised the market with a small increase in crop ratings last night.
The ProFarmer crop tour reports much better crops in Indiana and eastern Illinois
than had been seen on day one. Rains continue in Delta, delaying harvest activity.
Stats Canada estimated an 8.9% drop in 2016 Canadian corn production from last
year at 12.3 MMT. After all their problems with rain disrupting the wheat harvest,
France is now experiencing a heatwave just as corn is pollinating, which may
cut yields for that crop also. Temperatures in the coming week are expected
to be between 2 and 6 degrees above average, say Reuters. Sep 16 Corn settled
at $3.28 1/2, down 4 3/4 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.37 1/4, down 5 1/4
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower across the board, with Minneapolis reversing
the recent trend and coming off the worst of the three exchanges. That spring
wheat market was under pressure from the news that Stats Canada was estimating
the Canadian wheat crop at 30.5 MMT, up more than 10% on last year and the second
largest crop in the last 25 years. Egypt passed on their wheat tender with no
reason given. 11 bids were on the table. Jordan made no purchase in their 100
TMT wheat tender, and immediately re-issued for the same. Russia's wheat harvest
is 61% done at 58.1 MMT. Final production estimates of 72 MMT "look attainable"
said Agritel. They could yet finish up even higher than that. Russia is expecting
very good exports August and September. Ukraine is likewise. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat
settled at $4.07 3/4, down 7 1/2 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.07 1/4,
down 6 1/2 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.15 3/4, down 16 1/4 cents.
Corn: The market closed a wee bit lower despite weekly export inspections of
1.249 MMT being up 6% from last week and up 29% vs the same week a year ago.
Day one of the ProFarmer crop tour in Ohio and South Dakota saw lower yields
than the USDA estimate, but that's what the trade expected. The USDA raised
corn crop conditions one point in the good to excellent category to 75%. They
said that 85% of the crop is at the dough stage (76% normally) and the the crop
is 40% dented as opposed to 35% for the 5-year average. MARS lowered their forecast
for the EU-28 average corn yield to 7.23 MT/ha from 7.42 MT/ha. Yields are seen
sharply lower in some countries (eg Romania), but this is compensated for by
significantly higher yields in others like Hungary. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.33
1/4, down 1 cent; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.42 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed with Minneapolis spring wheat again the
firmest market. Weekly export inspections of 530,824 MT were OK, and about what
the trade had in mind. Weekly crop progress has this year's US spring wheat
crop 65% harvested against only 46% normally at this time. MARS lowered EU soft
wheat yields from the 6.10 MT/ha estimated last month to 5.86 MT. mainly down
to an 11% cut for France "due to knock-on effects of large rainfall amounts,
low radiation and consequent high disease pressure during late May and June."
Russia's harvest is going well, producing a grain crop of over 80 MMT so far
including 57.5 MMT of wheat. Russian seaports only exported 406.8 TMT of grains
last week though, down from 716.6 TMT the previous week, according to APK Inform.
Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.15 1/4, down 11 3/4 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat
settled at $4.13 3/4, down 5 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.32, up 1
Corn: Corn closed firmer on the day and for the week. Fresh news was hard to
come by today. FranceAgriMer lowered French corn crop ratings 5 points to 63%
good/very good. The Argentine harvest is now said to be 85% done at 24.3 MMT.
The trade is looking forward to next week's Pro Farmer crop tour to see if the
USDA's bumper 175 bu/acre yield is pie in the sky. Twitter is full of reports
suggesting that it is. Nevertheless, the US crop is likely to be record large
again this year. High domestic prices will encourage the South American grower
to switch acres significantly into corn for 2016/17 the market suggests. The
Ukraine Ag Ministry estimates corn production there this year to reach 26 MMT.
Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.34 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.43
3/4, up 1 3/4 cents. For the week Sep 16 was up 12 cents and Dec 16 gained 10
Wheat: Wheat closed mixed, with MGEX wheat gaining the most on the day and
for the week. Russia's wheat harvest is 54.4% done and has already reached the
53.5 MMT mark if official figures are correct. The AG Ministry there now suggest
that total grain exports in 2016/17 might reach the 40 MMT mark, well ahead
of 33.9 MMT last season - and that itself was a record. The French wheat harvest
is now almost over at 97% complete as of Monday. The UK harvest is 40% done,
but forecast heavy and widespread rains over the weekend will stall progress
here. EU soft wheat export licences are currently running 24% ahead of last
year's pace, with Romanina particularly active. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at
$4.27, unchanged; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.18 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents;
Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.30 3/4, up 3 cents. For the week Chicago wheat
was up 4 1/2 cents, Kansas added 2 1/2 cents and Minneapolis put on 14 3/4 cents.
Short covering in Minneapolis wheat continues be a feature.
Corn: The corn market closed a cent or two firmer. Old crop sales are winding
down. Weekly export sales of 167,400 MT for 2015/16 were a marketing-year low
- down 72 percent from the previous week and 61 percent from the prior 4-week
average. New crop sales of 1,042,700 MT were better, reported primarily for
Mexico (425,200 MT), unknown destinations (269,300 MT), and Japan (152,400 MT).
Exports of 1,166,300 MT were down 19 percent from the previous week and 10 percent
from the prior 4-week average. Cumulative new crop sales are 10.1 MMT vs just
6.6 MMT this time last year. Under the daily reporting system the USDA also
reported 101,600 MT of US corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the
2016/17 marketing year. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange say that Argentine growers
will increase corn plantings 25% for next season to 4.5 million ha (3.6 million
this season). Planting begins a few weeks from now. Ukraine said that thy'd
exported 444 TMT of corn so far this season. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.32, up
1 3/4 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.42, up 2 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed a touch firmer. Weekly export sales of 489,500
MT for 2016/17 were down 19 percent from the previous week, but up 2 percent
from the prior 4-week average. These included 92,000 MT for Brazil. Exports
of 717,900 MT were a marketing-year high - up 77 percent from the previous week
and 52 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were
Brazil (164,600 MT), Japan (127,500 MT), Nigeria (65,800 MT), Mexico (63,300
MT) and Taiwan (53,000 MT). Japan bought 87,430 MT of US, Canadian and Australian
wheat in their regular weekly tender. Jordan bought 50 TMT of feed barley at
$189 C&F and are in the market for a further 100,000 MT. Tunisia tendered
for 42 TMT of durum wheat. Ukraine said that they'd exported 2.43 MMT of wheat
and 1.90 MMT of barley so far this season. The EU approved 538,000 MT of soft
wheat export licenses this week. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.27, up 1 cent;
Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.21, up 2 3/4 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled
at $5.27 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents.
Corn: The market closed with small gains. Weekly ethanol production tied at
the all-time high of 1.029 million barrels per day. Brazil continues to be a
buyer and importer of US ethanol as their production has shifted towards sugar
and away from bio-fuel. They are a buyer of US corn too as their safrinha crop
falls victim to drought and exporters pay the price for being extremely aggressive
marketeers earlier in the season, a situation similar to that on beans. Fund
money still holds a sizable short position in corn, and is credited for covering
in around 8,000 lots opf that short today. The ProFarmer crop tour kicks off
next week, traders will be looking to that to see if the USDA's record 175 bu/acre
yield estimate released last week holds water. Many are discounting this figure
as being too high, at least for now. The Delta continues to receive more rain
than it needs, stalling harvest activity there. The 5-day forecast has more
modest rainfall in it, but spread over a wider area. Temperatures are expected
to moderate in the 6-10 day forecast. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.30 1/4, up 2
3/4 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.39 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed firmer. Russian grain production estimates are
creeping ever higher, so much so that analysts are now questioning their ability
to safely store a 115-118 MMT crop. Logistics in exporting record volumes in
2016/17 are also being questioned. Meanwhile the EU crop keeps getting smaller
with the focus now on Germany, who's DRV yesterday cut production estimates
for wheat, barley, corn and OSR citing adverse weather conditions. If Europe
hasn't got it to sell, and Russia has problems shipping it then there may be
an opportunity for US wheat to make some inroads to North African/Middle Eastern
homes later in the season. Russian growers are also said to be disheartened
by current low prices and are looking to hold wheat in the hope that things
move higher. Winter planting for the 2017 harvest is already underway in both
Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine shippers are aggressive with their offerings now,
but are likely to be sold out on wheat come the spring. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled
at $4.26, up 2 1/2 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.18 1/4, up 7 cents;
Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.24 1/4, up 7 3/4 cents.
Corn: Corn closed flat to 1 cent higher. Fresh news was limited. As with beans,
not everyone is convinced that the US can bring in a record 175 bu/acre average
corn yield this year. "Corn benefits from heavy rainfall in July, strong
showers promoting successful pollination in corn. This insures that a large
number of kernels would develop on the ear. 'Rain makes grain' is the common
phrase. However, rainfall has continued heavy in August, perhaps becoming too
much of a good thing. Along with the warm night temperatures, corn prospects
have declined in Illinois and Indiana," say Martell Crop Projections. Heavy
rains continue today and are expected throughout the 7 day forecast for the
south which will halt almost all harvest activity there. Warmer than normal
night-time temperatures continue for the Midwest Midwest for another 5 days
before they give way to much below normal temperatures in a wet 6-10 day forecast.
Germany's DRV lowered their forecast for the 2016 corn crop there by 0.5 MMT
from last month to 4.0 MMT. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.27 1/2, up 1 cent; Dec
16 Corn settled at $3.37 1/4, up 1/4 cent.
Wheat: Wheat closed narrowly mixed across the three exchanges. The US winter
wheat harvest is just about done and the spring wheat harvest approaches halfway.
Demand for US wheat is sluggish, but improved prospects are hoped for following
a large-scale downgrade to the crop in Europe. Germany's DRV today lowered their
forecast for 2016 grain production there from 44.7 MMT to 44.9 MMT due to "significantly
lower estimated yields per hectare for all cereals. This year's result is more
than 8 percent below last year's value," they said. "Reason for the
disappointing results are in particular the adverse weather conditions in recent
months," they added. Wheat production was forecast at 24.2 MMT versus 25.4
MMT previously and some 9% below last year. Winter barley production is seen
down more than 9% at 8.8 MMT and spring barley output declining by almost 9%
to 1.8 MMT. There are no such problems in Russia though where IKAR raised the
bar for grain production this year by 2 MMT to 116 MMT, upping wheat 1 MMT to
70 MMT. These estimates are still quite conservative and could be raised again,
they said. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.23 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents; Sep 16 KCBT
Wheat settled at $4.11 1/4, down 1/2 cent; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.16
1/2, up 1 1/4 cents.
Corn: The corn market closed 3-4 cents higher. The trade doesn't seem to believe
that the USDA's 175 bu/acre yield estimate from Friday will come true. Weekly
export inspections came in at 1.172 MMT which is about what was expected. The
USDA left corn crop conditions unchanged at 74% good to excellent, although
there was a 1 point switch from VG into E. They said that 73% of the crop is
at the dough stage (60% typically at this time) and that the crop is 21% dented,
which is in line with the 5-year average. The Brazilian government are said
to be planning to rebuild their strategic corn stockpiles back to 2.0 to 2.3
MMT in 2017. That would help keep corn supplies there tight. Russia said that
they'd exported 158.5 TMT of corn Jul 1 to Aug 10. Ukraine seaports shipped
out 14.9 TMT of corn last week and Russian seaports nil as they both await the
arrival of new crop supplies. Sep 16 Corn closed at $3.26 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents;
Dec 16 Corn closed at $3.37, up 4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed across the three exchanges. Weekly export
inspections of 625,154 MT were more than 50% larger than last week. The USDA
has the 2016 US winter wheat harvest at 97% complete versus 95% normally at
this time. Spring wheat is 48% harvested against 30% normally. Spring wheat
crop conditions fell 2 points in the good to excellent category to 66%. There
are some questioning the FSU's ability to export the kind of volumes of wheat
that the USDA predicted on Friday, with much depending on the weather and logistical
issues across the depths of their winter. Syria are reported to be tendering
for 1 MMT of Russian wheat. Ukraine said that their seaports shipped out 413.1
TMT of wheat last week and Russia's exported 634.4 TMT. The 2016 Russian grain
harvest is said to be 46.4% complete at 72.7 MMT. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat closed at
$4.22, down 1/2 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.11 3/4, down 4 1/2 cents;
Dec 16 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.15 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents.
Corn: The market closed around a cent higher having been 9 cents lower at one
stage. The USDA report came in bearish for corn, raising the 2016 average US
corn yield to 175.1 bu/acre, with production at a record 15.153 billion bushels.
Argentine 2016/17 corn production was raised from 34 MMT to 36.5 MMT and world
production was upped from 1010 MMT to 1028 MMT. Glocal consumption was increased
also, up from 1009 MMT to 1017 MMT, but ending stocks still rose to 220.8 MMT.
The USDA have America taking a larger slice of the global export cake in 2016/17
at 55 MMT versus 52 MMT previously. Brazil's share will drop 1 MMT to 19.5 MMT,
although Argentina's will rise 0.5 MMT to 23.5 MMT, they predicted. The weekly
Commitment of Traders report showed managed money adding another 32,645 contracts
to their net short position taking that up to -137k lots. Sep 16 Corn settled
at $3.22 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.33, up 1 1/4 cents.
For the week Sep 16 corn was down 2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher. The USDA raised US all wheat production
to 63.2 MMT from 61.5 MMT previously and sees 2016/17 exports up from 25.0 MMT
to 25.5 MMT. European production was dropped 9 MMT from last month to 147.5
MMT. However increases from Russia (up 7 MMT to 72 MMT), Ukraine (up 2 MMT to
27 MMT), Australia, Canada and Kazakhstan all countered the lower EU output
to put the world crop almost 5 MMT higher this month at 743.4 MMT. Consumption
is seen up 3 MMT to 723.5 MMT. Ending stocks were lowered nearly 1 MMT from
253.7 MMT to 252.8 MMT but still remain at record large levels. EU exports were
cut from 34 MMT to 27 MMT, and Russia's raised from 25.5 MMT to 30 MMT, making
them the world's leading supplier of the grain. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at
$4.22 1/2, up 6 1/4 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.16 1/4, up 4 cents;
Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.16, up 6 1/2 cents. For the week overall, Chicago
wheat ended with net gains of 6 1/2 cents, Kansas wheat was up 4 1/2 cents and
Minneapolis added 13 1/4 cents.