Corn: The market closed with small gains on the day but fair losses for the
week. China was said to have sold the 453,203 MT of corn stocks they put up
for auction. The Argentine Ag Ministry raised their estimate for 2015/16 corn
production there from 37.9 MMT to 39.8 MMT (USDA: 28.0 MMT). They said that
harvesting of that crop is 53% complete. FrancAgriMer pegged French corn crop
conditions at 69% good to very good, unchanged on a week ago and 7 points better
than this time last year. Rain makes grain! Or at least is makes corn in the
case of France if not wheat. A wetter US weather outlook seems bearish. "More
heavy rainfall is expected in the Midwest. Periods of strong showers would be
fueled by the monsoon circulation. Moreover a storm track is expected to develop
from west-to-east across the northern tier of the United States, carrying waves
of showers into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest," said Martell Crop
Projections. News of the Argentine truckers strike being over is also a bearish
influence. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.35, up 3/4 cent; Dec 16 Corn settled at
$3.41 3/4, up 1 cent. Sep 16 fell 17 1/4 cents compared with last Friday.
Wheat: The wheat market followed French markets higher. FranceAgriMer cut another
7 points off French wheat good to very good today, making for a 37 point decline
in the last 3 weeks alone. The French crop was rated 76% G/VG this time a year
ago. Paris wheat futures put in their highest close of 2016 tonight. French
analysts ODA cut 3 MMT off their previous production estimate, pegging the crop
at a 9-year low of 32 MMT. Harvesting of French wheat is only 17% done compared
to 53% a year ago and there are fears than things could get worse yet as the
harvest progresses. Jordan are in for 100,000 MT of optional origin hard wheat.
The Argentine Ag Ministry cut their forecast for 2016/17 wheat plantings there
from 5.34 million ha to 5.25 million. Russian wheat production could reach 68
MMT this year say IKAR (USDA: 65 MMT). They've harvested 28.1 MMT so far, say
the Ag Ministry. RusAgroTrans said that grain exports in July might be lower
than expected due to reduced Turkish interest and as traders sit on their hands
awaiting the anticipated removal of the export tax on wheat. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat
settled at $4.25 1/4, up 7 1/2 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.19, up
11 1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.11, up 8 3/4 cents. Chicago wheat
was up 1/2 cents on the week, with Kansas wheat up 5 1/4 cents and Minneapolis
falling 1 cent.
Corn: The corn market closed around 3-4 cents lower. Weekly export sales were
345,100 MT for 2015/16 and 506,300 MT for 2016/17. Trade estimates were for
combines sales of 900,000 MT to 1.25 MMT. Exports of 1,240,900 MT were unchanged
from the previous week, but down 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. Reuters
reported that corn arrivals in Argentina's Rosario port are down dramatically
due to the ongoing truckers strike there. The EU approved 138 TMT of corn import
licences for a season so far total of 534 TMT. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.34
1/4, down 3 1/4 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.40 3/4, down 3 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher. Weekly export sale of 478,000 MT for
2016/17 were up 50 percent from the previous week, but down 15 percent from
the prior 4-week average. Exports of 360,600 MT were up 6 percent from the previous
week, but down 27 percent from the prior 4-week average. China took one cargo
of the latter. The global wheat market has a familiar look to it: Continued
downgrades for France; average crops in most of the rest of Europe; Better yields
than expected in Ukraine although quality is down; Better yields and quality
in Russia; Improved optimism for Australia. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.17
3/4, up 4 3/4 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.07 1/2, up 3/4 cent; Dec
16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.02 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents.
Corn: The corn market closed lower despite weekly US ethanol production coming
in at a new record 1.029 million barrels per day, according to the US Energy
Dept. Weekly export sales for corn tomorrow are expected to be in the region
of 900,000 MT to 1.25 MMT. The trade seems relaxed about the ongoing Argentine
truckers strike possibly disrupting shipping programmes there, at least for
now. The trade is fixed on US weather. "Maximum temperatures are expected
to climb into the 90s F over the next several days in Midwest corn and soybeans.
Kansas and Oklahoma are expecting highs over 100 F. This would not necessarily
be newsworthy, except that extreme heat has been absent this summer to date.
Showers are predicted in corn and soybeans though coverage may be scattered.
Nebraska and Kansas are expecting the heaviest rainfall, more than one inch,
while conditions look drier for Iowa, Missouri and southern Minnesota the balance
of this week. Corn farms east of the Mississippi Valley are targeted for heavier
rainfall, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Michigan," said Martell Crop Projections.
Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.37 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.44
1/4, down 4 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower. Export sales of US wheat during the week
ending July 14 are estimated to be from 300,000 to 600,000 MT in tomorrow's
weekly export sales report. The USDA’s attaché in Australia has
pegged the wheat crop there to 26 MT (+6.12% from last season). There's some
talk of final production being much higher than this once the combines start
rolling. The current WASDE estimate is at 25.5 MT. Japan is tendering for 165,048
MT of wheat in it's regular weekly tender. The French wheat crop is looking
poor, but elsewhere in Europe things look better. The FSU looks great. The Ukraine
Ag Min predicted a grain harvest in excess of 60 MMT for the 4th year in a row.
The wheat harvest there is presently 47% done at 11.3 MMT. The Russian harvest
is also going well with more than 25 MMT of wheat already in the barn. UkrAgroConsult
predicted Russia's share of the global wheat export market to rise to 16% this
season from 14.1% last year. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.36, down 6 1/2
cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.32 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX
Wheat settled at $5.01, down 3 cents.
Corn: The market closed substantially lower on a subtle change in the US weather
outlook. The market is fixated on the US weather and crop conditions. "Conditions
Mid July are better in many big production states than they were a year ago
and point towards a national yield of 175.3 bu/acre and a 3 bln bushel carryout.
A 3 bln bushel carryout is a 22% carryout to ratio and the last time the US
experienced a carryout to use ratio like that corn was $2.00 in October 17 years
ago," observed FCStone. The South American harvest is about halfway done.
There are trucker strikes in Argentina but no serious delays in exporting grains
are being reported yet. ProZerno forecast Russia's 2016/17 corn exports at 4.7
MMT - more than those for barley (4.3 MMT). Corn production in FSU nations is
becoming the new "big thing" as they turn on to higher much yielding
hybrid varieties. DRV forecast the Germany corn crop at 4.5 MMT, unchanged from
2015. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.41 3/4, down 15 1/4 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled
at $3.48 1/2, down 14 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market ended with significant losses across the three exchanges.
The US winter wheat harvest is now past three quarters done, and in Ukraine
it's approaching halfway. Russia's harvest is also fairly well advanced. Yields
in all three countries are reported to be impressive. Harvesting in France and
Germany is only just getting going. France is expecting disappointing yields
and quality, but overall in Germany things might be more like "just average".
The UK will get going imminently if the weather holds. ProZerno forecast Russian
grain exports in 2016/17 at a record 36.1 MMT (34.6 MMT in 2015/16), including
26 MMT of wheat, 4.7 MMT of corn and 4.3 MMT of barley. Rosstat said that Russian
grain stocks as of Jul 1 were down 6.8% year-over-year at 13.3 MMT. Ukraine
said that they'd harvested 9.9 MMT of wheat and 5.7 MMT of barley so far. Sep
16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.18, down 11 1/2 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled
at $4.10 1/2, down 9 1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.04, down 9 3/4
Corn: The corn market closed around 4-6 cents higher. Weekly export inspections
of 1.328 MMT were at the top end of trade estimates. "Less favourable growing
conditions are predicted this week on Midwest farms as hotter temperatures develop
along with reduced showers. Prospects in corn have been favourable with ideal
cool and rainy weather, up until now. Showers and thunderstorms are predicted
today in Iowa and Illinois. Hardly any rainfall is foreseen elsewhere in Midwest
corn, however," said Martell Crop Projections. The USDA said that corn
conditions good to excellent were unchanged on last week at 76% (with a subtle
1 point shift into excellent). They said that 56% of the crop is silking versus
46% typically at this time. Ukraine seaports exported 85,600 MT of corn last
week, according to APK Inform. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.57, up 4 3/4 cents;
Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.63 1/4, up 5 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher. Weekly export inspections of 439,484
MT were fairly good. The USDA reported 76% of the US winter wheat crop to be
harvested as of Sunday night, in line with 73% normally at this time. Spring
wheat headed was 96% against only 81% typically. Spring wheat conditions were
down one point to 69% good to excellent (70% a year ago). Egypt bought Romanian
and Russian wheat in their tender, paying around $166-167 FOB. The Russian wheat
harvest is already past the 20 MMT mark. The Russian Ag Min say that they've
exported 583,800 MT of grains so far this season ( a 34.5% increase on a year
ago) of which 383,500 MT is wheat. Private reports out of Russia indicate that
this year's harvest is likely to be every bit as good and official estimates
of around 110 MMT. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.29 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents; Sep
16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.20, up 6 1/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at
$5.13 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents.
Corn: The corn market closed lower on the day and for the week. The USDA's
FAS in Ukraine predicts 2016 corn production there at 26.98 MMT versus the USDA's
26.0 MMT estimate. They see 2016/17 Ukraine corn exports at 17.8 MMT (USDA:
17.0 MMT). French corn conditions are stable as the crop enters pollination.
The Argentine corn harvest is estimated to be 47.5% complete by the Buenos Aires
Grain Exchange, slowed by rain. IMEA has corn production in Brazil's Mato Grosso
down 22.8% at 22.2 MMT. This could still be optimistic with production in reality
down to 17-18 MMT, says Dr Cordonnier. IMEA have 2015/16 Mato Grosso corn ending
stocks at just 70,000 MT, just 7-days worth of supply! Sep 16 Corn settled at
$3.52 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.58 1/4, down 6 1/2 cents.
For the week Sep 16 was down 2 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower despite French wheat conditions slumping
another 10% G/VG this week for a 22% decline across the last three weeks alone.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange predicted the Argentine planted wheat area at
4.4 million ha, down 100,000 ha from their previous estimate. The USDA's FAS
in Ukraine estimate the 2016 wheat crop there at 24.5 MMT (USDA: 25.0 MMT) and
sees exports in 2016/17 at 13.0 MMT (USDA: 12.5 MMT). Egypt released their second
wheat tender of the week having purchased Ukraine/Russian material earlier in
the week. The results of this tender are expected over the weekend. Algeria
bought 400,000 MT of what was said the be German, Polish and Baltic wheat -
note no French - in their latest tender. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.24
3/4, down 9 1/4 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.13 3/4, down 4 cents;
Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.12, down 3 cents. Sep 16 CBOT wheat was down
10 1/4 cents on the week.
Corn: The market closed lower. Weekly export sales came in at 667,800 MT for
2015/16 and similar for 2016/17. Trade expectations had been for old crop corn
sales of around 350,000 and 550,000 MT, and new crop sales to be between 450,000
and 650,000 MT, so these were at the high end of pre-report estimates. The trade
is still fixated on a hot and dry spell forecast to start next week. Monday's
opening should be interesting depending on weekend weather developments and
the latest forecasts on Monday. Talk circulates that Brazil is a spent force
on corn sales for the remainder of the season. China's corn crop might be suffering
from too much rain it is being mooted. Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.62 1/4, down
3 1/2 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.57 3/4, down 4 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market ended lower across the three exchanges. Weekly export
sales of 317,700 MT for 2016/17 were down 62 percent from the previous week
and 53 percent from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 341,300 MT were down
36 percent from the previous week and 32 percent from the prior 4-week average.
The primary destinations included a one-off sale to China (63,000 MT). Russian
analysts ProZerno said that the country might produce a record 112 MMT of gains
this year. A Bloomberg survey estimated Russian wheat exports at a record 27.5
MMT in 2016/17, up 10% from 2015/16. They've been a little slow to get going
so far this year as traders sit and wait for the government to make a move on
abolishing export taxes. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.21 3/4, down 4 1/2
cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.06, down 1 3/4 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat
settled at $5.00, down 2 1/2 cents.
Corn: The corn market finished the day with strong gains on a dry and hot 6-10
day forecast. All the weather models continue to show high 90’s to low
100’s degree temperatures for areas of Kansas, Nebraska, Dakotas, Western
Iowa up to around July 28th. Right in the middle of corn pollination. "The
6-10 day forecast is ominous for weather stress. Instead of cool temperatures
strong heating is predicted ,when a warm ridge of high pressure builds up in
the US heartland. The Midwest forecast is drier, as well, especially affecting
farms west of the Mississippi Valley," said Martell Crop Projections. US
ethanol production reached 1.004 million barrels per day last week, just shy
of the all time high and 20,000 bpd up on the previous week. In tomorrow's weekly
export sales report the trade is anticipating old crop corn sales of around
350,000 and 550,000 MT, and new crop sales to be between 450,000 and 650,000
MT. Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.65 3/4, up 16 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.62,
up 9 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed relatively flat. US markets are struggling to
find an inherently bullish story of their own, with the ongoing winter wheat
harvest throwing up good yields, and ending stocks running at the highest levels
since 1987/88. French crop conditions are dropping like a stone however, down
6 points in the good to very good category in each of the last 2 weeks. French
wheat wasn't even offered at yesterday's Egyptian tender, but there were plenty
of offers from Russia and Ukraine, with the former seemingly content that the
government will have removed the export duty on wheat by then. The 2016 Russian
grain harvest currently stands at almost 15 MMT and Ukraine's at just under
8 MMT. Yields are up sharply in both locations. The leading French port of Rouen
finished 2015/16 exporting a record volume of grain according to customs data.
Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.26 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled
at $4.07 3/4, unchanged; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.02 1/2, unchanged.
Corn: The corn market closed around 4-6 cents higher. Beginning
stocks for 2016/17 were lowered 7 million bu whereas the trade was looking for
a 100 million bu increase. The new crop US production estimate came out at 14.540
billion bu, 17 million larger than the average trade guess. US 2016/17 ending
stocks were only up 73 million bu from the June report whereas the average trade
guess was for a 205 million bu increase. Brazil's 2015/16 crop was cut 7.5 MMT
(the smallest crop in 5 years) and 2 MMT taken of production in 2016/17 as well.
Dr Cordonnier said that domestic corn prices in Brazil are running at around
$6/bu and rising due to the sharply lower safrinha corn crop. And the safrinha
corn crop is the one that they mostly export. Thus exports this season could
fall to 20 MMT versus 30.5 MMT last year, and corn supplies in Brazil could
remain tight until the 2017/18 season. Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.49 3/4, up
6 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.52 1/4, up 4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher across the three exchanges
in sympathy with corn and beans. The USDA had all wheat production at 2.261
billion bu, 97 million larger than the average trade guess. "Global wheat
production is projected at a record high, outpacing consumption for the fourth
consecutive year. This trend is leading to the highest exporter ending stocks
since 2010/11, which is overburdening the market and pressuring price,"
they said. "In the United States, stocks are projected at their highest
since 1987/88 and account for 41 percent of the exporter total in 2016/17,"
they added. Russia and Ukraine got a 1 MMT production increase, Argentina, Australia
and Canada were all increased by 0.5 MMT. The EU was lowered 1 MMT to 156.5
MMT. The bottom line for the global balance sheet was a production increase
of nearly 8 MMT, but a sharp increase in consumption (up more than 13 MMT),
lowered ending stocks by more than 4 MMT. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.24,
up 7 3/4 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.07 3/4, up 6 3/4 cents; Sep
16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.02 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents.
Corn: The market closed with fairly sizable losses. Weekly export inspections
came in at 1.358 MMT. The USDA said that 32% of this year's corn crop is pollinating
against 26% fore the 5-year average. They placed good to excellent crop conditions
at 76%, up one point. The EU Commission cut the size of the EU-28 corn crop
from 65.8 MMT to 65.2 MMT. Ukraine seaports chipped 90,100 MT of corn last week,
said APK Inform. Russian seaports shipped zero. Trade estimates for tomorrow's
WASDE report say that 2016 US corn production will be 14.523 billion bushels,
with 2016/17 ending stocks of 2.213 billion bu. The long-term forecast still
points to much above normal temperatures for most of the corn belt combined
with normal to below normal rainfall. It's unlikely therefore that we've seen
the end of this weather market just yet. Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.43 3/4, down
6 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.48 1/4, down 6 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market ended lower. Weekly export inspections of 375,279 MT
were down 34% on last week but 38% higher than the same week in 2015. The USDA
put the 2016 US winter wheat harvest at 66% complete, one point ahead of the
5-year average.Spring wheat conditions were trimmed 2 points to 70% good to
excellent. Spring wheat headed was 91% against only 64% on average. The EU Commission
cut their forecast for the EU-28 soft wheat crop from 145.1 MMT to 144.6 MMT.
Rapidly deteriorating French crop conditions remain a worry there. Ukraine seaports
shipped out 159,900 MT of wheat last week and Russian seaports a further 57,100
MT, said APK Inform. IKAR said that Russian wheat prices were at 7-year lows
following good early yield results and a sudden strengthening of the rouble.
US wheat production is expected to be 2.164 billion bushels in the monthly WASDE
report tomorrow, up from the previous USDA forecast of 2.077 billion bu. Jul
16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.16 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled
at $4.01, down 4 1/4 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $4.99 3/4, down 1 1/4