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25 July 2016 | Online since 2003
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23 July 2016 | Chicago Reports
22/07/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed sharply lower on the day and for the week. News that the Argentine truckers strike was over brought a bearish end to the week. The Argentine government were said to have increased their 2015/16 soybean production estimate from 58 MMT to 58.8 MMT as well (USDA: 56.5 MMT). Latest weather forecasts look a bit wetter. "The morning satellite image shows how very humid, unstable air ultimately reaches the Midwest, promoting instability and strong showers. The Southwest monsoon played a major role in fueling Midwest showers. Moist air from the Gulf of Mexico streams into the Southwest desert, then bends north into the Great Plains. The moist air air stream then turns east across the Midwest farm belt,W said Martell Crop Projections. Aug 16 Soybeans settled at $10.06 1/2, down 26 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.88 1/4, down 24 1/4 cents; Aug 16 Soybean Meal settled at $346.70, down $5.80; Aug 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.21, down 85 points. For the week Aug 16 were beans were down 66 cents, with Aug 16 meal a $22.70 loser and Aug 16 oil dropping 68 points.

Corn: The market closed with small gains on the day but fair losses for the week. China was said to have sold the 453,203 MT of corn stocks they put up for auction. The Argentine Ag Ministry raised their estimate for 2015/16 corn production there from 37.9 MMT to 39.8 MMT (USDA: 28.0 MMT). They said that harvesting of that crop is 53% complete. FrancAgriMer pegged French corn crop conditions at 69% good to very good, unchanged on a week ago and 7 points better than this time last year. Rain makes grain! Or at least is makes corn in the case of France if not wheat. A wetter US weather outlook seems bearish. "More heavy rainfall is expected in the Midwest. Periods of strong showers would be fueled by the monsoon circulation. Moreover a storm track is expected to develop from west-to-east across the northern tier of the United States, carrying waves of showers into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest," said Martell Crop Projections. News of the Argentine truckers strike being over is also a bearish influence. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.35, up 3/4 cent; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.41 3/4, up 1 cent. Sep 16 fell 17 1/4 cents compared with last Friday.

Wheat: The wheat market followed French markets higher. FranceAgriMer cut another 7 points off French wheat good to very good today, making for a 37 point decline in the last 3 weeks alone. The French crop was rated 76% G/VG this time a year ago. Paris wheat futures put in their highest close of 2016 tonight. French analysts ODA cut 3 MMT off their previous production estimate, pegging the crop at a 9-year low of 32 MMT. Harvesting of French wheat is only 17% done compared to 53% a year ago and there are fears than things could get worse yet as the harvest progresses. Jordan are in for 100,000 MT of optional origin hard wheat. The Argentine Ag Ministry cut their forecast for 2016/17 wheat plantings there from 5.34 million ha to 5.25 million. Russian wheat production could reach 68 MMT this year say IKAR (USDA: 65 MMT). They've harvested 28.1 MMT so far, say the Ag Ministry. RusAgroTrans said that grain exports in July might be lower than expected due to reduced Turkish interest and as traders sit on their hands awaiting the anticipated removal of the export tax on wheat. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.25 1/4, up 7 1/2 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.19, up 11 1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.11, up 8 3/4 cents. Chicago wheat was up 1/2 cents on the week, with Kansas wheat up 5 1/4 cents and Minneapolis falling 1 cent.



22 July 2016 | Chicago Reports
21/07/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed around 3-5 cents higher. Weekly export sales came in at 325,000 MT for 2015/16 and 1,001,600 MT for new crop, beating pre-report estimates of 750,000 MT to 1.25 MMT over both crop years. Exports of 393,800 MT were down 1 percent from the previous week, but up 30 percent from the prior 4-week average. The much touted Midwest heatwave is now upon us, with AccuWeather giving "real feel" temperatures of as high as 115F for Chicago Friday afternoon. Aug 16 Soybeans settled at $10.32 1/2, up 5 1/2 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.12 1/2, up 3 1/2 cents; Aug 16 Soybean Meal settled at $352.50, up $0.10; Aug 16 Soybean Oil settled at 31.06, up 35 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 3-4 cents lower. Weekly export sales were 345,100 MT for 2015/16 and 506,300 MT for 2016/17. Trade estimates were for combines sales of 900,000 MT to 1.25 MMT. Exports of 1,240,900 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but down 5 percent from the prior 4-week average. Reuters reported that corn arrivals in Argentina's Rosario port are down dramatically due to the ongoing truckers strike there. The EU approved 138 TMT of corn import licences for a season so far total of 534 TMT. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.34 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.40 3/4, down 3 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed higher. Weekly export sale of 478,000 MT for 2016/17 were up 50 percent from the previous week, but down 15 percent from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 360,600 MT were up 6 percent from the previous week, but down 27 percent from the prior 4-week average. China took one cargo of the latter. The global wheat market has a familiar look to it: Continued downgrades for France; average crops in most of the rest of Europe; Better yields than expected in Ukraine although quality is down; Better yields and quality in Russia; Improved optimism for Australia. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.17 3/4, up 4 3/4 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.07 1/2, up 3/4 cent; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.02 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents.



21 July 2016 | Chicago Reports
20/07/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed lower under pressure from a firmer US dollar. There were no new weather market developments today, so the old adage "the bulls need feeding everyday" maybe came into play and we drifted lower. Trade ideas for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are 750,000 MT to 1.25 MMT over both crop years. Talk of lower demand from China than the 87 MMT that the USDA has pencilled in for 2016/17 leans bearish. They are due to auction off another 579,300 MT of state owned reserved on Friday. Word is that the Argentine government is baulking at introducing the promised next 5% reduction in the soybean levy, which would upset growers there and maybe lead to some selling reluctance. Aug 16 Soybeans settled at $10.27, down 17 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.09, down 18 3/4 cents; Aug 16 Soybean Meal settled at $352.40, down $7.30; Aug 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.71, up 5 points.

Corn: The corn market closed lower despite weekly US ethanol production coming in at a new record 1.029 million barrels per day, according to the US Energy Dept. Weekly export sales for corn tomorrow are expected to be in the region of 900,000 MT to 1.25 MMT. The trade seems relaxed about the ongoing Argentine truckers strike possibly disrupting shipping programmes there, at least for now. The trade is fixed on US weather. "Maximum temperatures are expected to climb into the 90s F over the next several days in Midwest corn and soybeans. Kansas and Oklahoma are expecting highs over 100 F. This would not necessarily be newsworthy, except that extreme heat has been absent this summer to date. Showers are predicted in corn and soybeans though coverage may be scattered. Nebraska and Kansas are expecting the heaviest rainfall, more than one inch, while conditions look drier for Iowa, Missouri and southern Minnesota the balance of this week. Corn farms east of the Mississippi Valley are targeted for heavier rainfall, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Michigan," said Martell Crop Projections. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.37 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.44 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower. Export sales of US wheat during the week ending July 14 are estimated to be from 300,000 to 600,000 MT in tomorrow's weekly export sales report. The USDA’s attaché in Australia has pegged the wheat crop there to 26 MT (+6.12% from last season). There's some talk of final production being much higher than this once the combines start rolling. The current WASDE estimate is at 25.5 MT. Japan is tendering for 165,048 MT of wheat in it's regular weekly tender. The French wheat crop is looking poor, but elsewhere in Europe things look better. The FSU looks great. The Ukraine Ag Min predicted a grain harvest in excess of 60 MMT for the 4th year in a row. The wheat harvest there is presently 47% done at 11.3 MMT. The Russian harvest is also going well with more than 25 MMT of wheat already in the barn. UkrAgroConsult predicted Russia's share of the global wheat export market to rise to 16% this season from 14.1% last year. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.36, down 6 1/2 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.32 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.01, down 3 cents.



20 July 2016 | Chicago Reports
19/07/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed sharply lower. Latest weather forecasts showed a wetter 5 day pattern, little change to the hot/dry 6-10 day prediction but then a cooler trend for the 11-15 day model. That was seemingly all it took to get the market down 30 cents. Oil World see China importing a lot less beans in 2016/17 (80-82 MMT) than the USDA currently think (87 MMT). Dr Cordonnier reports that the Argentine government are waivering over their promise to phase in the reduction in the soybean export tax in 5 percentage point increments when they look at how much needed revenue the tax brings in. Aug 16 Soybeans settled at $10.44, down 34 1/4 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.27 3/4, down 38 1/2 cents; Aug 16 Soybean Meal settled at $359.70, down $13.30; Aug 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.66, down 28 points.

Corn: The market closed substantially lower on a subtle change in the US weather outlook. The market is fixated on the US weather and crop conditions. "Conditions Mid July are better in many big production states than they were a year ago and point towards a national yield of 175.3 bu/acre and a 3 bln bushel carryout. A 3 bln bushel carryout is a 22% carryout to ratio and the last time the US experienced a carryout to use ratio like that corn was $2.00 in October 17 years ago," observed FCStone. The South American harvest is about halfway done. There are trucker strikes in Argentina but no serious delays in exporting grains are being reported yet. ProZerno forecast Russia's 2016/17 corn exports at 4.7 MMT - more than those for barley (4.3 MMT). Corn production in FSU nations is becoming the new "big thing" as they turn on to higher much yielding hybrid varieties. DRV forecast the Germany corn crop at 4.5 MMT, unchanged from 2015. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.41 3/4, down 15 1/4 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.48 1/2, down 14 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market ended with significant losses across the three exchanges. The US winter wheat harvest is now past three quarters done, and in Ukraine it's approaching halfway. Russia's harvest is also fairly well advanced. Yields in all three countries are reported to be impressive. Harvesting in France and Germany is only just getting going. France is expecting disappointing yields and quality, but overall in Germany things might be more like "just average". The UK will get going imminently if the weather holds. ProZerno forecast Russian grain exports in 2016/17 at a record 36.1 MMT (34.6 MMT in 2015/16), including 26 MMT of wheat, 4.7 MMT of corn and 4.3 MMT of barley. Rosstat said that Russian grain stocks as of Jul 1 were down 6.8% year-over-year at 13.3 MMT. Ukraine said that they'd harvested 9.9 MMT of wheat and 5.7 MMT of barley so far. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.18, down 11 1/2 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.10 1/2, down 9 1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.04, down 9 3/4 cents.



19 July 2016 | Chicago Reports
18/07/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed higher and towards the upper end of a fairly wide trading range. Concerns over drier weather later in the week won the day. Weekly export inspections were in line with trade ideas at 367,380 MT. After the close the USDA left soybean good to excellent ratings unchanged at 71%. They said that 59% of the crop is blooming (49% on average) and 18% setting pods (13% on average). Oil World said that China's soybean imports might drop from 83 MMT to 80-82 MMT this year - the first y-o-y decline in ten. The fall comes due to high domestic stocks, increased Chinese oilseed production and the fact that the government intends to auction 4.3 MMT of state-owned stocks, they said. Aug 16 Soybeans settled at $10.78 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.66 1/4, up 9 cents; Aug 16 Soybean Meal settled at $373.00, up $3.60; Aug 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.94, up 5 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 4-6 cents higher. Weekly export inspections of 1.328 MMT were at the top end of trade estimates. "Less favourable growing conditions are predicted this week on Midwest farms as hotter temperatures develop along with reduced showers. Prospects in corn have been favourable with ideal cool and rainy weather, up until now. Showers and thunderstorms are predicted today in Iowa and Illinois. Hardly any rainfall is foreseen elsewhere in Midwest corn, however," said Martell Crop Projections. The USDA said that corn conditions good to excellent were unchanged on last week at 76% (with a subtle 1 point shift into excellent). They said that 56% of the crop is silking versus 46% typically at this time. Ukraine seaports exported 85,600 MT of corn last week, according to APK Inform. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.57, up 4 3/4 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.63 1/4, up 5 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed higher. Weekly export inspections of 439,484 MT were fairly good. The USDA reported 76% of the US winter wheat crop to be harvested as of Sunday night, in line with 73% normally at this time. Spring wheat headed was 96% against only 81% typically. Spring wheat conditions were down one point to 69% good to excellent (70% a year ago). Egypt bought Romanian and Russian wheat in their tender, paying around $166-167 FOB. The Russian wheat harvest is already past the 20 MMT mark. The Russian Ag Min say that they've exported 583,800 MT of grains so far this season ( a 34.5% increase on a year ago) of which 383,500 MT is wheat. Private reports out of Russia indicate that this year's harvest is likely to be every bit as good and official estimates of around 110 MMT. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.29 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.20, up 6 1/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.13 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents.



16 July 2016 | Chicago Reports
15/07/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed lower on the day and for the week. The June NOPA crush report came in 145.05 million bushels versus an average trade guess of 145.418 million, but still the largest June crush on record. Under the daily reporting system, private exporters reported 320,000 MT of US soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for 2016/17 delivery. The hot and dry forecast of the 6-10 day weather outlook is unchanged. China were said to have sold virtually all the 300,400 MT of soybeans they put up for auction yesterday. Aug 16 Soybeans settled at $10.72 1/2, down 11 1/4 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.57 1/4, down 5 cents; Aug 16 Soybean Meal settled at $369.40, down $3.80; Aug 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.89, up 22 points. For the week Aug 16 beans were down 10 3/4, meal lost $3.90 and oil gained 64 points.

Corn: The corn market closed lower on the day and for the week. The USDA's FAS in Ukraine predicts 2016 corn production there at 26.98 MMT versus the USDA's 26.0 MMT estimate. They see 2016/17 Ukraine corn exports at 17.8 MMT (USDA: 17.0 MMT). French corn conditions are stable as the crop enters pollination. The Argentine corn harvest is estimated to be 47.5% complete by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, slowed by rain. IMEA has corn production in Brazil's Mato Grosso down 22.8% at 22.2 MMT. This could still be optimistic with production in reality down to 17-18 MMT, says Dr Cordonnier. IMEA have 2015/16 Mato Grosso corn ending stocks at just 70,000 MT, just 7-days worth of supply! Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.52 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.58 1/4, down 6 1/2 cents. For the week Sep 16 was down 2 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower despite French wheat conditions slumping another 10% G/VG this week for a 22% decline across the last three weeks alone. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange predicted the Argentine planted wheat area at 4.4 million ha, down 100,000 ha from their previous estimate. The USDA's FAS in Ukraine estimate the 2016 wheat crop there at 24.5 MMT (USDA: 25.0 MMT) and sees exports in 2016/17 at 13.0 MMT (USDA: 12.5 MMT). Egypt released their second wheat tender of the week having purchased Ukraine/Russian material earlier in the week. The results of this tender are expected over the weekend. Algeria bought 400,000 MT of what was said the be German, Polish and Baltic wheat - note no French - in their latest tender. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.24 3/4, down 9 1/4 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.13 3/4, down 4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.12, down 3 cents. Sep 16 CBOT wheat was down 10 1/4 cents on the week.



15 July 2016 | Chicago Reports
14/07/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower. Export sales came in at 364,200 MT for 2015/16 and 547,000 MT for 2016/17. Trade expectations were 400,000 and 600,000 MT on old crop, while new crop sales were estimated to be between 500,000 and 700,000 MT, so these were a touch on the low side. China took 279,600 MT of the old crop and 300,000 MT of the new crop. The monthly NOPA report is due out on tomorrow with the trade expecting NOPA members to have crushed 145.418 million bushels of soybeans in June. Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $11.11 1/2, down 16 1/2 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.62 1/4, down 43 cents; Jul 16 Soybean Meal settled at $381.30, down $7.20; Jul 16 Soybean Oil settled at 31.12, up 47 points.

Corn: The market closed lower. Weekly export sales came in at 667,800 MT for 2015/16 and similar for 2016/17. Trade expectations had been for old crop corn sales of around 350,000 and 550,000 MT, and new crop sales to be between 450,000 and 650,000 MT, so these were at the high end of pre-report estimates. The trade is still fixated on a hot and dry spell forecast to start next week. Monday's opening should be interesting depending on weekend weather developments and the latest forecasts on Monday. Talk circulates that Brazil is a spent force on corn sales for the remainder of the season. China's corn crop might be suffering from too much rain it is being mooted. Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.62 1/4, down 3 1/2 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.57 3/4, down 4 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market ended lower across the three exchanges. Weekly export sales of 317,700 MT for 2016/17 were down 62 percent from the previous week and 53 percent from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 341,300 MT were down 36 percent from the previous week and 32 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations included a one-off sale to China (63,000 MT). Russian analysts ProZerno said that the country might produce a record 112 MMT of gains this year. A Bloomberg survey estimated Russian wheat exports at a record 27.5 MMT in 2016/17, up 10% from 2015/16. They've been a little slow to get going so far this year as traders sit and wait for the government to make a move on abolishing export taxes. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.21 3/4, down 4 1/2 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.06, down 1 3/4 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.00, down 2 1/2 cents.



14 July 2016 | Chicago Reports
13/07/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed higher on continued talk of a hot and dry ridge to enter the Midwest from around Jul 20. Dr Cordonnier said that Brazil's 2015/16 soybean ending stocks could fall as low as 0.45 MMT - less than 1 week's worth of supply. It is therefore crucial that planting for 2016/17 begins bang on time on Sept 15 once the compulsory soybean free period ends in Mato Grosso, he said. Any delay could further impact on old crop tightness and leave the Brazilian S&D picture very finely balanced until the 2017/18 season, he suggested. China imported 7.56 MMT of soybeans in June according to customs data. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 400,000 and 600,000 MT on old crop, while new crop sales are estimated to be between 500,000 and 700,000 MT. Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $11.28, up 20 3/4 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $11.05 1/4, up 18 1/4 cents; Jul 16 Soybean Meal settled at $388.50, up $10.20; Jul 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.65, down 6 points.

Corn: The corn market finished the day with strong gains on a dry and hot 6-10 day forecast. All the weather models continue to show high 90’s to low 100’s degree temperatures for areas of Kansas, Nebraska, Dakotas, Western Iowa up to around July 28th. Right in the middle of corn pollination. "The 6-10 day forecast is ominous for weather stress. Instead of cool temperatures strong heating is predicted ,when a warm ridge of high pressure builds up in the US heartland. The Midwest forecast is drier, as well, especially affecting farms west of the Mississippi Valley," said Martell Crop Projections. US ethanol production reached 1.004 million barrels per day last week, just shy of the all time high and 20,000 bpd up on the previous week. In tomorrow's weekly export sales report the trade is anticipating old crop corn sales of around 350,000 and 550,000 MT, and new crop sales to be between 450,000 and 650,000 MT. Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.65 3/4, up 16 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.62, up 9 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed relatively flat. US markets are struggling to find an inherently bullish story of their own, with the ongoing winter wheat harvest throwing up good yields, and ending stocks running at the highest levels since 1987/88. French crop conditions are dropping like a stone however, down 6 points in the good to very good category in each of the last 2 weeks. French wheat wasn't even offered at yesterday's Egyptian tender, but there were plenty of offers from Russia and Ukraine, with the former seemingly content that the government will have removed the export duty on wheat by then. The 2016 Russian grain harvest currently stands at almost 15 MMT and Ukraine's at just under 8 MMT. Yields are up sharply in both locations. The leading French port of Rouen finished 2015/16 exporting a record volume of grain according to customs data. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.26 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.07 3/4, unchanged; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.02 1/2, unchanged.



13 July 2016 | Chicago Reports
12/07/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed with strong gains as the USDA lowered old crop ending stocks to 350 million bu in its monthly report. New crop production was estimated at 3.880 billion bu with the the same 46.7 bu/acre yield figure from June. US ending stocks for 2016/17 are now projected to be 290 million bu, up 30 million from June, but 5 million below the average trade guess. "Prospects for U.S. soybean exports have brightened considerably since January as strong global demand, accompanied by shortfalls in projected South American production, is expected to boost both the quantity and value of U.S. exports," they said. There were no changes to production in South America or imports from China. Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $11.07 1/4, up 24 1/2 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.87, up 32 cents; Jul 16 Soybean Meal settled at $378.30, up $4.60; Jul 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.71, up 46 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 4-6 cents higher. Beginning stocks for 2016/17 were lowered 7 million bu whereas the trade was looking for a 100 million bu increase. The new crop US production estimate came out at 14.540 billion bu, 17 million larger than the average trade guess. US 2016/17 ending stocks were only up 73 million bu from the June report whereas the average trade guess was for a 205 million bu increase. Brazil's 2015/16 crop was cut 7.5 MMT (the smallest crop in 5 years) and 2 MMT taken of production in 2016/17 as well. Dr Cordonnier said that domestic corn prices in Brazil are running at around $6/bu and rising due to the sharply lower safrinha corn crop. And the safrinha corn crop is the one that they mostly export. Thus exports this season could fall to 20 MMT versus 30.5 MMT last year, and corn supplies in Brazil could remain tight until the 2017/18 season. Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.49 3/4, up 6 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.52 1/4, up 4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed higher across the three exchanges in sympathy with corn and beans. The USDA had all wheat production at 2.261 billion bu, 97 million larger than the average trade guess. "Global wheat production is projected at a record high, outpacing consumption for the fourth consecutive year. This trend is leading to the highest exporter ending stocks since 2010/11, which is overburdening the market and pressuring price," they said. "In the United States, stocks are projected at their highest since 1987/88 and account for 41 percent of the exporter total in 2016/17," they added. Russia and Ukraine got a 1 MMT production increase, Argentina, Australia and Canada were all increased by 0.5 MMT. The EU was lowered 1 MMT to 156.5 MMT. The bottom line for the global balance sheet was a production increase of nearly 8 MMT, but a sharp increase in consumption (up more than 13 MMT), lowered ending stocks by more than 4 MMT. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.24, up 7 3/4 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.07 3/4, up 6 3/4 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.02 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents.



12 July 2016 | Chicago Reports
11/07/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower heading into tomorrow's WASDE report, with fund money maybe continuing to ditch some length. Weekly export inspections of 374,016 MT were double last week's total. The USDA raised good to excellent crop conditions one point to 71% (62% a year ago). They said that 7% of the crop is setting pods (5% on average) and that 40% of the crop is blooming (31% on average). US soybean production is expected to be 3.876 billion bushels in tomorrow’s WASDE report, with 2016/17 carryout of 295 million bu. The EU Commission cut their forecast for the EU-28 OSR crop to 20.8 MMT from 22.0 MMT previously. UkrAgroConsult said that oilseed crops in Ukraine were doing well. Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $10.82 3/4, down 7 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.55, down 2 3/4 cents; Jul 16 Soybean Meal settled at $373.70, down $5.00; Jul 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.25, down 2 points.

Corn: The market closed with fairly sizable losses. Weekly export inspections came in at 1.358 MMT. The USDA said that 32% of this year's corn crop is pollinating against 26% fore the 5-year average. They placed good to excellent crop conditions at 76%, up one point. The EU Commission cut the size of the EU-28 corn crop from 65.8 MMT to 65.2 MMT. Ukraine seaports chipped 90,100 MT of corn last week, said APK Inform. Russian seaports shipped zero. Trade estimates for tomorrow's WASDE report say that 2016 US corn production will be 14.523 billion bushels, with 2016/17 ending stocks of 2.213 billion bu. The long-term forecast still points to much above normal temperatures for most of the corn belt combined with normal to below normal rainfall. It's unlikely therefore that we've seen the end of this weather market just yet. Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.43 3/4, down 6 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.48 1/4, down 6 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market ended lower. Weekly export inspections of 375,279 MT were down 34% on last week but 38% higher than the same week in 2015. The USDA put the 2016 US winter wheat harvest at 66% complete, one point ahead of the 5-year average.Spring wheat conditions were trimmed 2 points to 70% good to excellent. Spring wheat headed was 91% against only 64% on average. The EU Commission cut their forecast for the EU-28 soft wheat crop from 145.1 MMT to 144.6 MMT. Rapidly deteriorating French crop conditions remain a worry there. Ukraine seaports shipped out 159,900 MT of wheat last week and Russian seaports a further 57,100 MT, said APK Inform. IKAR said that Russian wheat prices were at 7-year lows following good early yield results and a sudden strengthening of the rouble. US wheat production is expected to be 2.164 billion bushels in the monthly WASDE report tomorrow, up from the previous USDA forecast of 2.077 billion bu. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.16 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.01, down 4 1/4 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $4.99 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents.




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