05 September 2015 | Online since 2003


Chicago Reports

4 September 2015 | Chicago Reports
03/09/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower despite the USDA announcing 773,400 MT of US beans sold to unknown for 2015/16 delivery along with 110,000 MT of US beans sold to China, also for 2015/16 shipment. Weekly export sales came in as net reductions of 60,500 MT for 2014/15 and new crop sales that topped 1.5 MMT, primarily for unknown destinations (947,700 MT) and China (489,600 MT). They're some pretty impressive numbers. A market that still goes down with supportive information like this tells you something - that the bears have full control of this market. With the 2015 US harvest impending there could be more pressure to come, especially if early yield reports are positive. Allendale yesterday pegged these at 45.4 bu/acre with production at 3.971 bu acre. That would be the second largest yield on record beaten only by last year. Informa topped that today with a yield estimate of 47 bu/acre, slightly higher than the USDA's current 46.9 bu/acre forecast. Sep 15 Soybeans closed at $8.79 3/4, down 4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.69 1/2, down 4 1/2 cents; Sep 15 Soybean Meal closed at $316.50, down $1.60; Sep 15 Soybean Oil closed at $26.76, unchanged.

Corn: The corn market closed around 5-6 cents lower. Weekly export sales came in at 112,700 MT on old crop, but only a poor 328,300 MT on the new crop. Trade estimates had been for combined sales of 500,000 MT to over 1 MMT, so these were a disappointment. In a bear market like this one that proved to be difficult to swallow. Allendale yesterday estimated US corn yields at 167.1 bu/acre, with production this year at 13.548 billion bushels. That would be the second largest yield on record. As with beans, Informa topped that today with a figure of 168.8 bu/acre, up from a previous estimate of 165.4 bu/acre. They now see total production of 13.688 billion bushels. Both those numbers are now consistent with the USDA's August estimates. Russia said that it had currently harvested 3.8% of it's 2015 corn crop and that yields are currently averaging 4.87 MT/ha, down from 5.48 MT/ha a year ago at this time. The USDA has them down to average 5.0 MT/ha this year. In Brazil, farmers in Mato Grosso state are reporting record large safrinha corn yields. Local analysts IMEA are now predicting a safrinha corn crop for the state of 21 MMT, up 6 MMT from their initial estimate. Brazilian corn prices are up sharply, unlike those in the US, thanks to a 30% devaluation of the Brazilian real versus the US dollar since the turn of the year. Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.47 3/4, down 6 1/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.61 1/2, down 6 cents.

Wheat: Well, with beans and corn lower it was always going to be unlikely that the wheat market would stand out like a shining beacon, and so it proved. Weekly export sales of only 277,500 MT let the side down again. News of the prices being paid in North Africa by Algeria and Egypt in their tenders today rammed home the message that US wheat is simply far too dear. Today's export sales backed up that story. Russia staged a clean sweep in the GASC tender, despite French prices being dropped considerably from last week. French wheat futures closed at more than 5-year lows today as their silos remain full, and exports stay slack. Chicago wheat slipped to new five-year lows today, whilst in Kansas City things are at levels not seen for 8-1/2 years. Jordan seeks 100,000 MT hard wheat of optional origin for Nov-Jan shipment, along with a similar volume of barley for the same period. Stats Canada estimated Jul 31 all wheat stocks there at 7.11 MMT versus an average trade estimate of 6.5 MMT. Russia said that it's wheat harvest was 62.5% complete on 16.8 million ha producing a crop of 49.7 MMT to date. The Russian Ag Minister said that he saw no reason to alter the current export duty on wheat, saying that full season grain exports would total 25-30 MMT. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.56 1/2, down 16 1/2 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.41 1/2, down 6 1/2 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.84 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents.



3 September 2015 | Chicago Reports
02/09/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with little change. FCStone estimated US 2015 soybean yields at 45.4 bu/acre, up from 45.0 bu/acre previously. Despite the rise there was a small 6 million bushel reduction to their production estimate taking that down to 3.791 billion bushels. The USDA were at 3.916 billion in August and production last year was 3.969 billion. Informa are due out with their latest 2015 US production estimates this week. They had production at 3.789 billion and yields at 45.4 bu/acre a month ago. The next USDA numbers are due next Friday. Further negative economic data out of China overnight leans bearish. Tomorrow's weekly export sales report will be important, to perhaps re-assure the market that they are still buying beans actively. Prices are after all at multi-year lows. Trade estimates for soybean sales are around 550,000 MT to 1.15 MMT, with meal sales around 50,000 MT to 200,000 MT. South Korea's MFG bought 60,000 MT of US or South American soymeal for Feb shipment. Sep 15 Soybeans closed at $8.83 3/4, down 1 cent; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.74, unchanged; Sep 15 Soybean Meal closed at $318.10, up $0.20; Sep 15 Soybean Oil closed at 26.76, down 46 points.

Corn: The market closed around 1-2 cents easier. FCStone increased their US corn yield estimate from 165.0 bu/acre to 165.9 bu/acre. They now see production at 13.457 billion bushels versus 13.381 billion previously. The USDA were at 13.69 billion last month and output a year ago was 14.216 billion. Informa are expected out either tomorrow or Friday, they had production at 13.412 billion bushels with yields estimated at 165.4 bu/acre last time. The latest weekly report from the US Energy Dept showed that ethanol production was down 4,000 barrels per day to 948,000 bpd during the week ending August 28. China is now on holiday for the rest of the week, so hopefully there won't be any further bearish news from them for the next few days. That said, it's not unusual for them to alter interest rates etc over a weekend. The Chinese market will re-open on Monday, but the US markets are then shut for Labor Day. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 500,000 MT to 1.05 MMT for corn. South Korea's MFG were reported to have bought 204,000 MT of optional origin corn for Feb shipment. The country is also said to be in the market for more of the same. Very early corn yields in Ukraine are reported to be down versus a year ago and well below the 6.59 MT/ha national average that the USDA is predicting this year. Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.54, down 2 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.67 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The market closed with some fairly steep losses, especially on the nears. Chicago wheat closed at the lowest levels on a front month since early May, and not far away from being at the lowest in more than 5 years. The trade will be nervous that tomorrow's weekly export sales might disappoint, as they have done frequently of late, although last week the opposite was true. Trade estimates for this week's sales are in a fairly modest range of 250,000 MT to 520,000 MT. Anything less than that would be a kick in the teeth. Even Europe is now struggling to find export homes for it's larger than anticipated wheat harvest, French sales have dried up, and Paris wheat closed at the lowest for a front month since September 2014 tonight. The Paris Dec 15 contract also set lifetime contract lows. Egypt issued another tender for wheat, it's third within the last 8 days. On each of the previous two occasions though it has only bought one cargo each time, one from Russia last Thursday and one from Ukraine last Friday. With sellers seemingly falling over themselves to grab a share of the business, it looks like GASC are simply testing the water again, to see how low the offers will come in this time round. So despite prices being at the lowest levels in years, little more than $190/tonne including freight last week, I don't expect them to be in for volume tomorrow. Neither is US wheat likely to figure. South Korea are said to be in the market for 50,000 MT of Australian wheat for Feb shipment. Stats Canada are due out with their Jul 31 stocks report tomorrow. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.73, down 11 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.48, down 10 1/2 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.89 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents.



2 September 2015 | Chicago Reports
01/09/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower as more bad economic news out of China further rocked the market. A Farm Futures Magazine survey has the total US 2015 soybean area estimated at a record 86.32 million acres versus 84.3 million a year ago. Dr Cordonnier estimated the 2015 US soybean crop at 3.81 billion bushels, on yields of 46.0 bu/acre. The USDA were at 3.916 billion bushels and 46.9 bu/acre in August. Oil World estimated 2015/16 global soybean output at 315.8 MMT versus a previous estimate of 312.8 MMT. They see global soybean stocks at 89.2 MMT versus a previous estimate of 87.3 MMT, and up 2.3% from a year previously. Brazil reported Aug soybean exports at 5.16 MMT, down from 8.44 MMT in July, but up versus the 4.12 MMT shipped out 12 month previously. IMEA estimated 2015/16 Mato Grosso soybean plantings at 9.2 million ha, up 2% from a year ago. Agritrend forecast Argentine soybean plantings in 2015/16 at a record 20.8 million ha. The Argentine government said that growers there at 63.4% sold on their 2014/15 soybean crop versus 55.5% a year ago. South Korea's MFG are tendering for 120,000 MT of US, South American and/or Chinese soymeal for Feb-March shipment. Sep 15 Soybeans closed at $8.84 3/4, down 12 3/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.74, down 13 1/2 cents; Sep 15 Soybean Meal closed at $317.90, down $3.00; Sep 15 Soybean Oil closed at 27.22, down 70 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 6-7 cents lower. Crude oil was sharply lower, reversing yesterday's gains and adding to the negative tone. Various media reports suggested that around 200 individuals in China may have been arrested, accused of "speaking negatively about the markets". The Chinese, US and EU stock markets were all significantly lower today. Dr Cordonnier estimated the 2015 US corn crop at 13.33 billion bushels, on yields of 165 bu/acre, both figures unchanged from his previous estimates. The USDA's August estimates were for production of 13.686 billion bushels, with yields at 168.8 bu/acre. A Farm Futures survey had 2015 US corn acres estimated at 89.65 million versus 88.9 million a year ago. Argentine growers are said to be 65.7% sold on their 2014/15 corn crop versus 63.7% this time a year ago. The USDA reported that processors used 448 million bushels of corn in July for the production of ethanol. That's up from 441 million in June. Agritend said that Argentine growers will cut corn for grain plantings for 2015/16 by 15% to 2.8 million ha, the smallest area in 25 years. Another Argentine analyst. SRA, sees them even lower - down 22% year-on-year. Ukraine have started their 2015 corn harvest, and very early yields are reported to be averaging only 4.2 MT/ha. The USDA have average yields there this year at 6.59 MT/ha. Russia's 2015 corn harvest is also underway and said to be averaging 4.78 MT/ha, down 12% on a year ago and below the USDA's forecast of 5.0 MT/ha. Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.56, down 7 3/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.69, down 6 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed, up a little in Chicago and down a bit in Kansas and Minneapolis. US Wheat Associates said that this year's US soft red winter wheat production was a five-year low of 388.9 million bushels, and that the quality of the crop was poor. Low bushel weights and hagberg levels, and record high levels of vomitoxin and damaged kernels were reported. Agritrend said that Argentine wheat plantings for 2015/16 could fall to the lowest level in more than 100 years at just 3.4 million ha. That's a 19% drop on a year ago, and below the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange's 3.7 million estimate and the Rosario Exchange's 3.5 million prediction. Argentine growers are said to be almost 93% sold on their 2014/15 wheat crop versus 67.5% sold this time a year ago. Japan tendered for 126,805 MT of food wheat from the US and Canada for Oct-Nov shipment in it's regular weekly tender. The results of that are due Thursday. A Farm Futures survey estimates the US all wheat area at 55.87 million acres versus 56.1 million a year ago. French wheat futures closed close to 11-month lows today as they desperately search the market for buyers. Ukraine remains an active thorn in Europe's side. Russian exports are lower than they were a year ago, although last season was a record pace. The Russian port of Novorossiysk said that it had shipped out 986 TMT of wheat in July, down 30% from a year ago. Russia were said to be the cheapest offer in Iraq's recent hard wheat tender, not Australia as was reported yesterday. Jordan today cancelled a tender for 100,000 MMT of optional origin hard milling wheat. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.84, up 1 1/2 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.58 1/2, down 5 1/4 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.92, down 4 1/2 cents.



1 September 2015 | Chicago Reports
31/08/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with small gains. Weekly export inspections of 184,285 MT were fairly decent for the time of year, given the pace that they've been running at all season. The USDA announced 125,000 MT of US soybeans sold to unknown, assumed to be China, for 2015/16 delivery. Worries about Chinese demand remain. The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 0.8% today for a 12.5% decline for the month of August. That's the third monthly fall in a row. The trade was expecting the USDA to maybe trim good to excellent soybean ratings a little in their latest crop progress report due after the close. They left things unchanged at 63% G/E, and in fact there was a one point shift from good into excellent. They said that 93% of the crop is setting pods, 2 points behind the 5-year average, and that 9% of the crop is dropping leaves, 2 points ahead of average. We are now at the end of August, long regarded as the key yield-determining month for US soybeans. So how have things been? "Soybeans got a boost from generous August rainfall west of the Mississippi Valley, though the Eastern Midwest has grown steadily drier," say Martell Crop Projections. "Farms west of the Mississippi Valley have received very ample August rainfall in Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and South Dakota. Higher soybean yields than last season are predicted in those states. The heavy rainfall in August is due to an active monsoon circulation. The Southwest monsoon is a climate anomaly that promotes a moist air stream from tropical Mexico up into the United States heartland. The new forecast for the upcoming week predicts more heavy rain for the western Midwest," they add. Sep 15 Soybeans closed at $8.97 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.87 1/2, up 2 cents; Sep 15 Soybean Meal closed at $320.90, down $0.50; Sep 15 Soybean Oil closed at 27.92, up 13 points.

Corn: The corn market closed narrowly mixed. Weekly export inspections came in at just over 1 MMT, which was better than the recent average, and up 13% on last week. NYMEX crude oil closed around $4/barrel higher in a topsy turvy trading session. There's continued talk of dryness in Ukraine and southern Russia starting to hurt corn crops there, with traders paring back their production estimates for the region. The Russian Ag Ministry said that their 2015 corn harvest is 2.5% complete on 69.1k ha, and that average yields so far are more than 12% down at 4.78 MT/ha, although it's obviously very early days yet. The EU Commission said that the bloc had exported 4.0 MMT of corn to non-EU destinations in 2014/15, a 78% rise compared to the recent average. Romania was the top exporting nation, shipping out 2.6 MMT, a 140% increase. The top homes were Turkey, South Korea and Egypt. EU corn imports were also higher however. At 9.3 MMT these were up 12% on the recent average, with Ukraine accounting for 60% of the total volume. Russia said that it had exported 171 TMT of corn so far this season. APK Inform said that Ukraine exported 51.9 TMT of corn last week. After the close the USDA pared back US corn crop ratings by one point in the good to excellent category to 68%, which is 4 points behind this time last year - when yields went on to break all previous records. On that basis this year's US corn crop isn't in bad shape at all. The USDA said that 92% of the crop is at the "dough" stage, 2 points ahead of the 5-year average and 3 points more that this time last year. They have 60% of the crop "dented" which is in line with the recent average and 10 points up on this time last year. They say that 9% of the crop is mature, 2 points ahead of this time a year ago, but 6 points behind the recent average. Chinese corn futures traded limit down last night, setting new contract lows, on continued talk that the government might revise down the support price it pays for corn by 15-20% this year. Domestic Chinese corn prices are far higher than world levels. Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.63 3/4, up 1/2 cent; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.75 1/4, up 1/4 cent.

Wheat: The wheat market finished higher on all three exchanges. The hot and dry weather said to be harming corn crops in Ukraine and the south of Russia also means that winter wheat plants are in need of a drink. The Russian Ag Ministry said that winter wheat plantings there are 16.7% complete on 2.9 million ha. They also said that this year's wheat harvest is now past 60% complete on 16.2 million ha. Production currently stands at 48.7 MMT, with average yields down 8% at 3.01 MT/ha. The Russian barley harvest is said to be 67% complete on 6.0 million ha, with production at 14.2 MMT. Yields there are down 5.6% at 2.38 MT/ha. US hard wheat was said to be comfortably out-priced in the latest Iraq tender. Australian wheat was the cheapest at $231.70/tonne, with Russian at $234/tonne, Canadian at $247.20/tonne and US wheat at $265/tonne - some $33.30/tonne dearer than the best Australian offer. Bangladesh seeks 50,000 MT of optional origin wheat in a tender. Algeria are in the market for a similar volume of optional origin milling wheat for October delivery. Bulgaria said that it's 2015 wheat harvest had come in at 4.6 MMT, better than the official 4.3-4.5 MMT estimate from their Ag Ministry, although down on 4.9 MMT a year ago. The EU Commission said that the bloc had exported 33.3 MMT of soft wheat/flour/products in 2014/15, a 64% increase on the recent average and also a record volume. France was the leading exporting nation, followed by Germany, Romania and Poland. Algeria was the top buyer, followed by Egypt, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and Iran. EU barley exports jumped 80% on the recent average to 12.7 MMT, with France again the leader. China took 3 MMT of EU barley in 2014/15, a massive 1452% increase on the recent average, making it the leading home followed by Saudi Arabia on 2.6 MMT. The USDA said that the 2015 US spring wheat harvest was 88% complete. This time a year ago it was only 36% done, and the 5-year average is 62% complete, so things are well advanced on normal. Weekly export inspections of 601,639 MT were a step in the right direction, but more weeks like that are needed. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.82 1/2, up 5 1/2 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.63 3/4, up 6 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.96 1/2, up 6 cents.



30 August 2015 | Chicago Reports
28/08/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher on the day, but lower for the week. China's economy appears to hold the key short-term, followed by US production prospects and then South American plantings. The Chinese Shanghai Composite Index closed 4.8% higher today, after a 5.3% gain yesterday. As far as US production goes, we are due to have the latest round of private analyst releases next week, with FCStone due out Tuesday, and also Informa at some point. Last time round FCStone had the US bean crop estimated at 3.797 billion bushels, with yields at 45.0 bu/acre. Informa were at 3.789 billion and 45.4 bu/acre last time. The USDA were at 3.916 billion bushels and 46.9 bu/acre earlier this month. Their new figures are due out on Sep 11. In Brazil is now seems widely expected that 2015 soybean plantings will rise by around 3%. There is also widespread talk that this won't necessarily be translated into a 3% production increase. The weather needs to co-operate of course, but also the weak Brazilian real means that the cost of fertiliser is much higher, thus application rates could be reduced, meaning possible lower yields. The weekly commitment of traders report shows managed money cutting their net long in beans by around 19k lots for the week through to Tuesday night. They are still net long, but only to the tune of 775 contracts. Sep 15 Soybeans closed at $8.93 1/4, up 7 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.85 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents; Sep 15 Soybean Meal closed at $321.40, down $1.50; Sep 15 Soybean Oil closed at 27.79, up 90 points. For the week front month beans were still 12 cents easier, meal fell $5.90 whilst oil advanced 43 points.

Corn: The market closed around unchanged on the day, and marginally lower for the week. The Chinese situation is seen as less of a big thing for US corn (and indeed corn in general) than it potentially is for beans. A Chinese government auction of domestic corn stocks went spectacularly badly this week, with them selling only around 40 TMT of the 5.0 MMT on offer. The trade talk of increased soybean plantings in Brazil due to higher fertiliser costs may mean a decrease in the corn area, as it is the more input-hungry crop. It could also mean reduced yield potential, although all that is still a fairly long way off. As mentioned above, we have FCStone and Informa due to enlighten us with their yield and production forecasts next week. Last time round FCStone had US corn yields at 165.0 bu/acre and production at 13.381 billion bushels. Informa lined up at 165.4 bu/acre on yields and 13.412 billion on production. The USDA's August estimates were for production of 13.686 billion bushels, with yields at 168.8 bu/acre. Planalytics Inc. were yesterday said to have estimated 2015 US corn yields at 166.8 bu/acre versus a previous estimate of 167.2 bu/acre. The EU Commission today forecast EU-28 corn production at only 58.7 MMT versus a previous estimate of 65.5 MMT. The USDA are currently at 62.25 MMT, and the new EU Commission estimate would be down nearly 22% from 75.13 MMT a year ago. If China doesn't want Ukraine's corn this year then Europe will probably take it. FranceAgriMer raised French corn crop conditions one point to 56% good to very good today, the first increase in more than 2 months. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that the Argentine corn harvest is 95.6% complete versus 93.2% a week ago and 98% a year ago. Managed money was net long around 73.5k corn lots as of Tuesday night, almost identical to a week previously. Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.63 1/4, down 1/2 cent; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.75, unchanged. For the week that puts Sep 15 2 cents lower, with Dec 15 down 2 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The market closed around 4-8 cents lower on the day and with losses in the region of 10-20 cents for the week. Where the EU corn crop this year appears to have been badly damaged by heat and drought, wheat seems to have "got out of jail free" with production estimates rising as yields come in better than expected, and in some cases at record levels. The EU Commission today forecasting a 2015 soft wheat crop there of 140.7 MMT versus a previous estimate of 139.4 MMT. The German Ag Ministry estimated their 2015 wheat crop at 26.4 MMT, down only relatively modestly (-5%) from a year ago. The UK harvest is ongoing, and yields are said to be well above the 10-year averages. The Russian wheat harvest as 58% complete, producing a crop of 47.7 MMT to date, according to their Ag Ministry. Egypt bought 55,000 MT of Ukraine wheat in a tender at just $177.20/tonne FOB, or little more than $190/tonne including freight, having yesterday yesterday bought 60,000 MT of Russian wheat. There were 16 cargoes offered, and 9 of them were Russian, but the Ukraine bid beat them all, even if not by much once slightly higher freight had been added on. The point is that there were no shortage of Russian offers, despite talk of exporters drawing in their horns somewhat until they get further clarification on proposed changes to the current export duty. As well as getting production figures from FCStone and Informa this week, Stats Canada are also due out on Thursday with their Jul 31 stocks estimates. For all wheat the average trade estimate 6.5 MMT versus 10.351 MMT a year ago. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.77, down 7 1/4 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.57 3/4, down 6 3/4 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.90 1/2, down 4 cents. That puts Chicago wheat 22 1/2 cents lower on the week, with Minneapolis down 11 1/2 cents and the Kansas market down 13 1/4 cents. Managed money was shown doubling their net short in CBOT wheat for the week through to Tuesday night, they are now net short 7.2k contracts.



28 August 2015 | Chicago Reports
27/08/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher, helped by strong new crop weekly export sales which included heavy Chinese interest. The USDA reported net old crop cancellations of 131,600 MT, but new crop sales of an impressive 1,457,400 MT which were primarily for China (887,500 MT) and unknown destinations (399,500 MT). Trade expectations were for combined net sales of around 0.5-1.0 MMT. These new crop sales were up 86% from the previous week. Exports of 231,400 MT were down 42 percent from the previous week. Cumulative exports for 2014/15 are now 49.47 MMT with 2 weeks of the season left to run. The USDA forecast for the entire season is 49.67 MMT. The USDA also reported that 130,000 MT of soybeans sold to unknown destinations for 2015/16 delivery under the daily reporting system. These will be included in next week's export sales. The Chinese stock market was up more than 5% today, posting its first rise in 6 sessions, adding a bit more to the friendly tone. Lanworth estimated US soybean yields at 46.2 bu/acre, with production at 3.85 billion bushels. The USDA were at 46.9 bu/acre and 3.916 billion bushels earlier this month, and production was 3.969 billion bushels a year ago. The IGC added 2 MMT To their global 2015/16 soybean forecast, taking that up to 318 MMT, which is 4 MMT below production in 2014/15. They also added 3 MMT to global consumption in 2015/16 and cut ending stocks by 4 MMT to 44 MMT. The USDA currently peg the world bean crop at 320 MMT in 2015/16 and have carryout far higher, almost double the IGC's number in fact, at 86.9 MMT. The reason for the discrepancy is unclear. The IGC said that world rapeseed/canola production this year would fall 9% due to disappointing crops in Europe and Canada. The USDA have production 10% lower at 64.58 MMT. MDA CropCast raised their world rapeseed production estimate by 0.36 MMT to 63.99 MMT. Canada's crop was estimated at 13.23 MMT, down 15.6% on a year ago. Sep 15 Soybeans closed at $8.86 1/4, up 8 1/2 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.79, up 14 cents; Sep 15 Soybean Meal closed at $322.90, down $1.50; Sep 15 Soybean Oil closed at 26.89, up 77 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around a couple of cents firmer. Weekly export sales showed net cancellations of 131,800 MT for delivery in 2014/15, a marketing-year low, which the USDA said "was down noticeably from previous week and from the prior 4-week average." There were net sales of 986,600 MT on new crop and actual exports themselves came in at 820,600 MT. Cumulative shipments to date this season total 44.13 MMT versus a USDA target of 46 MMT with two weeks left to go. Lanworth estimated the US corn crop at 13.7 billion bushels on yields of 166.8 bu/acre. The USDA are currently using a figure of 13.686 billion bushels, with yields at 168.8 bu/acre. Production last year was 14.216 billion bushels. Agritel said that this year's Ukraine corn crop could be closer to 25 MMT than the 26-27 MMT previously expected due to heat and dryness during the grain filling stage. They see exports at 15 MMT. The USDA have production at 27 MMT and exports at 17.5 MMT. The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that the country had exported 2.74 MMT of grain (mostly corn) to China between Jan–Jun this year, almost 8 times more than a year ago. MDA CropCast cut their world corn production estimate by 0.73 MMT from a week ago to 948.4 MMT, mainly due to reductions in expectations for Argentina. Their 2015/16 corn crop is now estimated at 22 MMT, down from 24 MMT in 2014/15. The USDA still have the 2015/16 Argentine corn crop at 25 MMT. The IGC added 2 MMT to their world corn production estimate, taking their figure up to 968 MMT, which represents a 3.5% decline versus 2014/15. They see global consumption unchanged from previously at 972 MMT and added 3 MMT to world ending stocks taking those up to 198 MMT. The latter is some 3 MMT higher than the USDA's August WASDE forecast. The IGC have the US corn crop estimated at 340.0 MMT (or 13.385 billion bushels) versus a previous estimate of 332.0 MMT. They slashed their outlook on the EU corn crop to 60.1 MMT from a previous estimate of 66.9 MMT. Arlan Suderman of Water Street Solutions reported that at a grain industry conference in Southeast Asia this week one of the speakers projected corn prices below $3 per bushel. "Sources say that the projection was based on big production prospects, sluggish demand and comparisons with grain price drops in the big financial collapse of 2008," he said. Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.63 3/4, up 2 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.75, up 1 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower. Weekly export sales of 529,100 MT for delivery in 2015/16 were up 68 percent from the previous week, but down 7 percent from the prior 4-week average. That actually beat albeit modest trade expectations of 250-425 TMT, but that still wasn't enough to get a rally out of the wheat market. Exports of 357,200 MT were down 41 percent from the previous week and 15 percent below the prior-4 week average. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that excessive wetness in Argentina may have washed out around 2% of their estimated 3.7 million ha of winter wheat plantings. There's talk that Brazil may have bought a few US HRW cargoes over the past week or so, but they didn't show up as a featured buyer in today's weekly export sales report. Taiwan were said to have bought 49,350 MT of US milling wheat for October shipment. APK Inform estimated the Ukraine wheat crop at 25.1 MMT in clean weight, up 4% on 24.1 MMT a year ago. They see domestic consumption at 12 MMT and 2015/16 wheat exports at 12.5 MMT, slightly below the USDA's 13 MMT figure. SovEcon estimated Russia’s 2015 grain crop at 101.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 99.0 MMT. Rabobank estimated Australia’s wheat crop at 23-24 MMT. MDA CropCast cut their forecast for the global wheat crop by 1.17 MMT to 714.5 MMT due to dryness in Canada where their crop was estimated at 25.1 MMT versus 29.9 MMT a year ago. The IGC added 10 MMT to their world wheat production estimate, taking that up to 720 MMT - essentially the same as a year ago. Although they increased consumption by 4 MMT they added 5 MMT to world ending stocks taking those up to an ample 206 MMT. In fact, world 2015/16 total grain stocks would hit a 29-year high of 447 MMT, they said. They have the Russian wheat crop estimated at 59.0 MMT versus a previous figure of 54.0 MMT. They see Ukraine at 25.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 22.0 MMT, and have Europe at 151.9 MMT versus a previous estimate of 148.5 MMT. They lowered their outlook on Canadian production this year though, down to 25.5 MMT from a previous estimate of 28.0 MMT. ACPB (a French Growers Group) estimated France’s 2015 soft wheat crop at a record in excess of 40 MMT, with yields also at a record 7.8 MT/ha. Egypt purchased just one cargo of Russian wheat in their tender. The price paid was said to be little more than $190/tonne. They then immediately released another tender, the results of which are expected tomorrow. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.84 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.64 1/2, down 2 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.94 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents.



27 August 2015 | Chicago Reports
26/08/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed at fresh lows for the recent slump. The Chinese stock market was down again, despite recent efforts by their central bank to shore things up. The market is now at levels not seen since March 2009. China's Ministry of Commerce estimated August soybean imports at 5.71 MMT, down sharply from 9.5 MMT in July, albeit that this was a record high. The vast majority of that will likely come from South America as well, not the US. Argentine president elections are due to take place on October 25. Argentina’s leading opposition candidate has told farm groups that he would lower soybean export taxes and lift quotas on wheat and corn shipments. Local farmers there remain on strike until Friday. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are in the region of 0.5-1.0 MMT for beans. For meal, sales of 50-275 TMT are what the market is expecting. Sep 15 Soybeans closed at $8.77 3/4, down 16 1/2 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.65, down 12 3/4 cents; Sep 15 Soybean Meal closed at $324.40, down $3.20; Sep 15 Soybean Oil closed at 26.12, down 70 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 3-4 cents lower. The US Energy Dept reported that US ethanol production dropped 13,000 barrels/day to 952,000 barrels/day for the week ending August 21. That's the the lowest production figure since the week ending May 1. Crude oil stocks remain at near 80-year highs. Ethanol stocks were steady at 18.6 million barrels. The Ukraine Ag Ministry estimated their 2015/16 grain crop at 60.46 MMT, with exports at an all-time high 37.0 MMT. Most of that will be corn. "The weather forecast is in flux transitioning into a hotter and drier pattern in the US heartland. This would be ideal for soggy corn fields in a wet summer growing season. Temperatures have chilled down in the Midwest the past few days, but are expected to warm up in the week ahead. August has been rather cool to date in Midwest corn and soybeans. Mostly dry conditions are expected in corn and soybeans, contrary to the extreme wetness that dominated for many weeks. A narrow band of heavy rain is predicted in the Upper Midwest in South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin. Strong thunderstorms would develop along an unstable horizontal front," said Martell Crop Projections. Estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 400-900 TMT. Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.61 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.73 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market finished mostly lower. Egypt's GASC tendered for wheat for October shipment, with the results expected tomorrow. This will be a useful barometer to test Russian exporters willingness to partake, given the recent slump in value of the rouble and uncertainty over the current export duty. It will also tell us who else is competitive, just don't go expecting it to be the US. Russia’s President Putin said that the country plans to increase wheat supplies to Egypt this year. Russia sold 4.0 MMT of wheat to Egypt in 2014, covering 40% of their needs. Egypt's Supplies Minister said that the country has enough wheat bought already to last it until Feb 10. Thailand were said to have bought 300,000 MT of Black Sea feed wheat for Jan-Aug shipment. Tunisia bought 75,000 MT of optional origin soft wheat and 125,000 MT of optional origin durum wheat. Oil World said heavy rainfall in Argentina since the start of August may cause “significant” damage to their developing winter wheat crop. Production this year may fall to 8-9 MMT, down from 12.8 MMT a year ago, said Dr Cordonnier. That could present a window of opportunity for US wheat to be exported to Brazil once more. Estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 250-425 TMT. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.89 3/4, down 5 1/4 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.66 1/2, up 1/2 cent; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.96 1/4, down 1/2 cent.



26 August 2015 | Chicago Reports
25/08/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with small gains, but well off the intra-day highs. By "Turnaround Tuesday" standards this proved to be a pretty modest affair at the end of the day. News that China had cut interest rates for the fifth time since November, and cut bank reserve requirements, added a bit of support to a nervous soybean market hovering around multi-year lows. The USDA announced another 210,000 MT of beans were sold to unknown destinations for 2015/16 delivery, presumed to be China. "Unknown" was in the market yesterday for 120,000 MT as well. Farmers in Argentina started a 5-day strike yesterday, disruptions in supplies are expected to be minimal though. Sep 15 Soybeans closed at $8.94 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.77 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents; Sep 15 Soybean Meal closed at $327.60, up $1.20; Sep 15 Soybean Oil closed at 26.82, up 27 points

Corn: The market closed around 3-4 cents lower. The Chinese stimulus measures announced today are seen as being more of benefit to soybeans than to corn. The US remains wet, and the forecast looks cooler. "Western Iowa was hit with strong thunderstorms last week that produced 3 - 5 inches of rainfall. Small pockets of excessive rainfall also developed in Illinois, Wisconsin and Missouri in an unstable weather pattern. The Midwest cumulative rainfall in July and August has now reached 7.7 inches, 14% above normal. Recall that record heavy rainfall developed previously, in June, causing historic flooding in Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio and damaging corn prospects. With one week to go in August, the forecast continues wet for the Upper Midwest. Heavy rain is predicted in South Dakota, Minnesota, northern Iowa and Wisconsin. Welcome drying is predicted in the Great Lakes and eastern Midwest. Strong cooling is predicted providing the first real taste of fall. Temperatures are projected to fall 6-12 F below normal the next 3-4 days," said Martell Crop Projections. Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.65 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.77, down 3 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The market closed around 7-10 cents lower across the three exchanges as early attempts to rally fizzled out. The USDA reported that the spring wheat and barley harvests are well advance compared with normal last night, and demand for both is slack. The Canadian harvest is also reported to be moving along smoothly. Russia is now past halfway done on their wheat harvest at 55.4% complete producing a crop of 46.4 MMT to date, according to their Ag Ministry. Average yields are said to be down more than 8% at 3.11 MT/ha. APK Inform said that Russian sellers had more or less withdrawn from the market due to the falling rouble and current duty on wheat exports. Winter planting in Russia for the 2016 harvest is almost 9% complete on 1.5 million ha. In Ukraine, they've harvested around 70% of the planted area, producing a grain crop of 37 MMT to date. The 2015 Ukraine corn harvest is yet to start. Winter planting for next year's harvest is already said to be 70% complete on 5.77 million ha. Jordan cancelled a tender for optional origin wheat for Nov/Dec shipment. Taiwan purchased 49,400 MT of US wheat. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.95, down 8 1/4 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.66, down 9 3/4 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.96 3/4, down 7 3/4 cents.



25 August 2015 | Chicago Reports
24/08/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower, but well off session lows, as traders attempted to weigh up the implications of the developing situation in China. They account for two thirds of all global soybean trade after all. Despite ending well off the lows of the day, this was still the first sub-$9/bushel close on a front month since 2009. The USDA reported weekly export inspections of 210,128 MT, taking cumulative shipments to 1.822 billion bushels, with 11 days remaining in the 2014/15 marketing year. The USDA projection for exports this season is 1.825 billion bushels. They left crop ratings unchanged at 63% good to excellent. They said 87% of the crop is setting pods, one point behind the 5-year average, with 96% of the crop blooming - 2 points behind the norm. The final results of last week's ProFarmer crop tour put the average US soybean yield at 46.5 bu/acre and estimated production at 3.887 billion bushels, both are slightly below the USDA's thinking - but not by much. If Chinese demand was to fall off a cliff then the soybean market really is in trouble. As yet though there is no evidence that it has, or will. Soybean imports in July were in fact at record levels. Since the Chinese devalued the yuan it's lost around 3% in value against the US dollar, which will make imports more expensive, but not dramatically so. The USDA reported 120,000 MT of soybeans sold to "unknown" for 2015/16 today, which frequently means "China" of course. Sep 15 Soybeans closed at $8.92 3/4, down 12 1/2 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.74, down 15 1/2 cents; Sep 15 Soybean Meal closed at $326.40, down $0.50; Sep 15 Soybean Oil closed at 26.55, down 81 points. The low of the day on Nov 15 beans was $8.55, almost 20 cents below the close.

Corn: The corn market closed around 3 cents higher, having been around 12 cents lower at one stage. The market seemed to conclude that China isn't a major player in the world corn import market. It certainly doesn't buy much from the US at the moment, although it is a significant home for corn from Ukraine. The USDA left crop conditions unchanged at 69% good to excellent, although there was a one point switch into excellent. They said that 85% of the crop is at the dough stage, up from 71% a week ago and 4 points ahead of the 5-year average. Denting, at 39% was 18 points up on the week, but 4 points behind the 5-year average. MARS cut their estimate for EU-28 corn yields this year from 6.71 MT/ha a month ago to 6.40 MT/ha, saying that "large areas of Europe have been negatively impacted by high temperatures and dry conditions, hitting summer crops during their most critical grain-filling stage." Adding that "record temperatures and critically low soil moisture levels led to critical situations in eastern France and southern Germany. Another area of concern is the status of summer crops in Poland which have been affected by the hot and dry conditions." Weekly US corn export inspections came in at 883,987 MT. Marketing year shipments to all destinations total 1.721 billion bushels versus the USDA's projection for the full season of 1.81 billion. APK Inform said that Ukraine seaports exported over 150 TMT of corn last week. Russia's Ag Ministry estimated corn production there this year at a record 13 MMT. Weakness of the Russian rouble and Ukraine hryvnia will help both their exports in 2015/16, which should get off to a brisk start once the harvest begins. Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.68 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.80 1/2, up 3 1/4 cents. The low of the day on Dec 15 was 365 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed with small gains, having been more than 12 cents lower at one stage. As with corn, the market seemed to conclude that the Chinese situation will have more of a negative impact on beans than it will for wheat. The USDA reported that the 2015 US spring wheat harvest has raced to 75% complete as of Sunday night. That's up from 53% done a week ago, and far higher than the 5-year average of 47%. The US barley harvest is similarly advance at 86% complete versus only 50% normally at this time. Weekly US export inspections were poor at only 277,992 MT, that was around half those of the previous week and for the same week a year ago. A sudden switch to a strong euro and weaker US dollar might now start to help US exports a bit though. Excessive wetness in Argentine (possibly El Nino related) is causing damage to their winter wheat crop. Plantings were already down 700,000 ha on last year, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange (the Rosario exchange has them even lower). Rain now threatens to wipe out 200-300,000 ha of what did get planted, in a best case scenario, says Dr Cordonnier. A worst case scenario is for losses on up to 700,000 ha, he says. Some private local estimates now put production there at only 8-9 MMT, versus 12.8 MMT a year ago. That would obviously cut their 2015/16 exports significantly, and leave Brazil looking for supplies from outside the Mercosur trade bloc once again. The US would be well-positioned to supply those needs. Russia's Ag Ministry forecast a wheat crop there this year of 59.8 MMT, similar to last year's levels. Exports still lag a year ago significantly though due to the current duty tied to the value of the ever falling rouble. That hit new lows versus the dollar and euro today as crude dipped to fresh lows. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.03 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.75 3/4, up 4 3/4 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.04 1/2, up 3 cents. The low of the day in Chicago was $4.86 3/4 cents.



22 August 2015 | Chicago Reports
21/08/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower on the day and for the week. Sentiment over the Chinese economy is weighing on the entire complex, despite the news that the country imported a record large 9.5 MMT of soybeans in July. Over 90% of those imports came from Brazil and Argentina though. The Chinese hog herd has decreased 20% over the last 2 years, said Rabobank. Thanks to modernisation in livestock and aquaculture methods though demand for soybeans/meal will remain strong though, they added. The Argentine Ag Ministry estimated their 2014/15 soybean crop at a record 61.4 MMTs versus previous estimate of 60.8 MMT. US 2015 soybean yields will average 45.4 bu/acre, a Bloomberg survey of 13 ProFarmer crop tour scouts showed. That's more than 3% below the USDA estimate of 46.9 bu/acre. John Deere estimate yields at 46.7 bu/acre and forecast average prices of $9.20/bu for the 2015/16 marketing year. Rabobank see prices bottoming at $9.40/bu in Q4 this year. ProFarmer estimated the US soybean crop at 3.887 billion bushels versus the USDA's 3.916 billion. That figure is on the basis that the USDA’s August harvested acreage estimate is accurate. A Bloomberg survey of 11 scouts on the tour came up with an average production estimate of 3.757 billion bushels. Rabobank estimated Brazil's soybean plantings for next season to rise 2-3%, aided by the weak Brazilian real. The weekly commitment of traders report shows managed money cutting almost 40k contracts off their net long position in the week through to Tuesday night. StatsCanada said that canola production there will fall to 13.3 MMT, down almost 15% from 15.6 MMT a year ago, and below the average analyst forecast of 13.7 MMT. Sep 15 Soybeans closed at $9.05 1/4, down 16 1/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $8.89 1/2, down 17 3/4 cents; Sep 15 Soybean Meal closed at $326.90, down $4.00; Sep 15 Soybean Oil closed at 27.36, down 62 points. For the week beans were 19 3/4 cents lower, with meal down $4.00 and oil down 142 points on a front month basis.

Corn: The corn market closed around 5 cents lower on the day, but still with small gains for the week. ProFarmer estimated the US 2015 corn crop at 13.323 billion bushels on a yield of 164.3 bu/acre. The USDA are at 13.686 billion bushels and 168.8 bu/acre. Corn yields will average 164.5 bu/acre, according to a Bloomberg poll of 17 participants on the tour. A similar survey estimated production at 13.391 billion bushels. Rabobank are at 165 bu/acre. Confidence is therefore rising that the USDA numbers on corn are too high. John Deere are right up there though with an estimate of 168.5 bu/acre. China reported July corn imports of 1.1 MMT, taking Jan/Jul imports to 3.76 MMT. DDGs imports were a record 1.1 MMT last month. Russia forecast their 2015 corn crop at a record 13 MMT. StatsCanada estimated their corn crop at 12.3 MMT. French corn crop conditions were left unchanged this week at 55% good to very good. They were 87% good to very good a year ago. Corn in Europe is being affected by excessive heat, said Rabobank. They cut their production estimate to 60 MMT versus the USDA's 62.3 MMT forecast. The EU will be forced to import a near record 16 MMT of corn in 2015/16, they said. A lot of that will come from Brazil and Ukraine, aided by their weak domestic currencies, they added. They see US corn prices at $3.80/bushel in the final quarter of this year, rising to $3.90, $4.00 and $4.10 in the first three quarters of 2016. "Midwest temperatures are predicted to drop 5-7 F below normal in the upcoming week. If there is a worry in Midwest corn, it would be reduced heat units from cooler temperatures that would slow down maturation. Worry number two is that June flooding caused irreversible damage to the corn yield in Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio," said Martell Crop Projections. "For now, it’s all about caution. Money managers are fleeing the commodity and equity sectors for the relative safety of government bonds," said Arlan Suderman of Water Street Solutions. The weekly commitment of traders report shows managed money reducing their net long position by 27,492 contracts for the week through to Tuesday night. Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.65 1/4, down 5 3/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.77 1/4, down 5 1/4 cents. For the week Sep 15 corn was up 1 1/4 cents and Dec 15 was 1 3/4 cents higher.

Wheat: The wheat market finished lower on the day and for the week across the three exchanges. Wheat also succumbed to the general global economic malaise. Production estimates in Europe and the Black Sea are increasing. France is said to be "maxed out" with wheat as various silos in both Rouen and Dunkirk announce that they are closed for intake until exports pick up. Russia's Ag Ministry estimated their wheat crop at 59.6 MMT this year. Rabobank raised their forecast 2 MMT to 59 MMT due to improved conditions in the spring wheat belt. Black Sea wheat exports in 2015/16 will beat last season by 3 MMT at 42 MMT, they predict. EU exports will drop to 31 MMT, they add. Rabobank now have the EU 2015 wheat crop at 151 MMT, which is 3 MMT higher than a month ago. It is also 3.2 MMT above the current USDA forecast. Production in Argentina and Canada is shrinking though. Some 600,000 hectares of Argentine wheat, equivalent to almost 20% of plantings nationwide, are at risk of being lost by flooding in the centre and north of the provinces of Buenos Aires and southern Santa Fe, according to a report in the country's La Nacion newspaper. Meanwhile StatsCanada today estimated this year's wheat crop at 24.6 MMT, down 16% from 29.3 million in 2014. It's also well below the average trade estimate of 26.2 MMT. John Deere estimated the 2015 US wheat yield to rise to 44.1 bu/acre, up from 43.7 bu/acre a year ago. They reduced their price forecast for 2015/16 to $5.05/bu from a previous estimate of $5.10/bu. Rabobank see prices a little higher, at $5.20 in Q4 of this year and $5.30 and $5.40 in Q1 and Q2 of 2016. Russia said that it's 2015 grain harvest was 47.4% complete producing a crop of 62.7 MMT to date. That includes 44.7 MMT of wheat off 52.5% of the planned area. Average wheat yields are down 8.6% at 3.1 MT/ha. Tonight's commitment of traders report shows that managed money has a small 3,537 net contract short in Chicago wheat and one of 6,978 contracts in Kansas as of Tuesday night. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.99 1/2, down 6 3/4 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.71, down 10 1/4 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.02, down 11 cents. For the week that puts Chicago wheat 6 1/2 cents lower, with the Kansas market down 18 3/4 cents and Minneapolis 16 1/2 cents easier.




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