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27 August 2016 | Online since 2003
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Chicago Reports

26 August 2016 | Chicago Reports
25/08/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans crashed lower despite solid weekly export sales. These came in at 115,100 MT for old crop and 1,939,600 MT for new crop - primarily for China (1,001,000 MT) and unknown destinations (771,000 MT). That was well above trade expectations. Reports from the ProFarmer crop tour showed better pod counts for IL and western IA, indicating bumper production there. The IGC estimated world soybean production at 325 MMT vs 321 MMT last month and 316 MMT last year. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment on beans found 6 bulls, 12 bears and 8 neutrals. More rains are due for the central and southern part of the soy belt the next 7 days. The trade continues to see the rains as beneficial for grain fill. Sep 16 Soybeans settled at $9.98 1/4, down 32 1/2 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.75 1/2, down 29 3/4 cents; Sep 16 Soybean Meal settled at $324.30, down $7.20; Sep 16 Soybean Oil settled at 32.91, down 66 points.

Corn: The market closed around 4 cents lower. Weekly export sales of 71,100 MT for 2015/16 were a marketing-year low, but then again there are only a few weeks left in that campaign. Sales of 1,059,900 MT were reported on new crop corn. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates Argentine corn harvest 93% complete. The IGC estimated the world corn crop at 1030 MMT vs 1017 MMT last month and 969 MMT last year. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment on corn found 5 bulls, 8 bears and 13 neutrals. China shifted 0.5 MMT of the 3.2 MMT of corn on offer at their latest corn auction. The ProFarmer crop tour is getting close to wrapping up its crop findings for the year. They are generally below the USDA on corn yields, and this year is expected to be no exception. Current guesses are 169-172 bpa vs the USDA's recent 175.1 bpa. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.23 1/2, down 4 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.32, down 4 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed around 2-4 cents lower. Weekly export sales came in at 379,700 MT for 2016/17 - down 22 percent from the previous week and 21 percent from the prior 4-week average. Exports of 564,000 MT were down 21 percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Indonesia (83,200 MT), Taiwan (56,900 MT), Colombia (56,600 MT), Chile (46,800 MT) and Venezuela (41,000 MT). A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment on wheat found 3 bulls, 13 bears and 10 neutrals. The Russian wheat crop keeps getting larger with SovEcon raising their estimate to 73 MMT. The French wheat harvest is officially over, and despite their production problems Nord Cereales have suspended delivery into their Dunkirk silo due to lack of available space. The IGC raised world wheat production to 743 MMT, up from 735 MMT last month. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.01 1/4, down 2 3/4 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.05 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $4.97 3/4, down 4 cents.



25 August 2016 | Chicago Reports
24/08/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower on a lack of (bullish) news. There were no daily export sales announcements today, and the dollar traded firmer, adding a negative tone to trading. Crude oil also traded weaker. Results from the Pro Farmer tour indicate better yield potential for NE and IN than they have seen so far. Sep 16 Soybeans closed at $10.30 134, down 3 1/2 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans closed at $10.05 1/4, down 8 1/4 cents; Sep 16 Soybean Meal closed at $331.50, down $0.90; Sep 16 Soybean Oil closed at 33.57, down 32 points.

Corn: Corn closed a little lower. Weekly US ethanol production came in at a close to record 1.028 million barrels per day last week. As with beans as the ProFarmer crop tour progresses better yield potential is being unearthed. IMEA report that 4.2% of the Mato Grosso, Brazil, corn acreage has been abandoned due to hot and dry conditions. Sep 16 Corn closed at $3.27 1/2, down 1 cent; Dec 16 Corn closed at $3.36 1/4, down 1 cent.

Wheat: Wheat closed mostly lower, with Chicago wheat hitting fresh contract lows. Bullish news is lacking, save for the demise of the French crop, but that is old hat now. There's no shortage elsewhere as Stats Canada helped point out yesterday. The Russian Ag Ministry said that this year's harvest was 59.1% complete at 86.9 MMT. That includes 58.9 MMT of wheat off 62.6% of the planned area, along with 15.2 MMT of barley (73% of plan). Sep 16 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.04, down 3 3/4 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.07 3/4, up 1/2 cent; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.01 3/4, down 8 cents.



24 August 2016 | Chicago Reports
23/08/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed with small losses, but nothing significant. Strong underlying support is seen at the sub-$10/bushel mark. Stats Canada estimated the 2016 Canadian canola crop at 17 MMT, around 1 MMT below trade estimations keeping oilseed supplies tight. Talk remains that Argentine growers will plant fewer beans as the government stall on it's promise to reduce export taxes. The Brazilian grower meanwhile is tempted by high domestic corn prices to also switch away from beans. That potentially leaves another year of a tightening world S&D situation as long as demand from China holds up. Sep 16 Soybeans settled at $10.34 1/4, down 1 cent; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.13 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents; Sep 16 Soybean Meal settled at $332.40, down $1.80; Sep 16 Soybean Oil settled at 33.89, unchanged.

Corn: The corn market closed around 4-5 cents lower. Fresh news was lacking. The USDA surprised the market with a small increase in crop ratings last night. The ProFarmer crop tour reports much better crops in Indiana and eastern Illinois than had been seen on day one. Rains continue in Delta, delaying harvest activity. Stats Canada estimated an 8.9% drop in 2016 Canadian corn production from last year at 12.3 MMT. After all their problems with rain disrupting the wheat harvest, France is now experiencing a heatwave just as corn is pollinating, which may cut yields for that crop also. Temperatures in the coming week are expected to be between 2 and 6 degrees above average, say Reuters. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.28 1/2, down 4 3/4 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.37 1/4, down 5 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower across the board, with Minneapolis reversing the recent trend and coming off the worst of the three exchanges. That spring wheat market was under pressure from the news that Stats Canada was estimating the Canadian wheat crop at 30.5 MMT, up more than 10% on last year and the second largest crop in the last 25 years. Egypt passed on their wheat tender with no reason given. 11 bids were on the table. Jordan made no purchase in their 100 TMT wheat tender, and immediately re-issued for the same. Russia's wheat harvest is 61% done at 58.1 MMT. Final production estimates of 72 MMT "look attainable" said Agritel. They could yet finish up even higher than that. Russia is expecting very good exports August and September. Ukraine is likewise. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.07 3/4, down 7 1/2 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.07 1/4, down 6 1/2 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.15 3/4, down 16 1/4 cents.



23 August 2016 | Chicago Reports
22/08/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher. The USDA reported 120,000 MT of soybeans sold for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/17 marketing year under the daily reporting system. Underlining the strong export demand theme were weekly export inspections of 961,414 MT, up nearly 20% from last week and 4.5 times larger than the same week a year ago. They also reported good to excellent crop conditions unchanged at 72% after the close (63% last year). They said that 89% of the crop is setting pods which is 4 points ahead of the 5-year average. The trade prefers to focus on the demand side of the coin rather than the potential record production side at the moment. Sep 16 Soybeans settled at $10.35 1/4, up 8 1/4 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.15 3/4, up 11 1/4 cents; Sep 16 Soybean Meal settled at $334.20, up $4.20; Sep 16 Soybean Oil settled at 33.89, down 25 points.

Corn: The market closed a wee bit lower despite weekly export inspections of 1.249 MMT being up 6% from last week and up 29% vs the same week a year ago. Day one of the ProFarmer crop tour in Ohio and South Dakota saw lower yields than the USDA estimate, but that's what the trade expected. The USDA raised corn crop conditions one point in the good to excellent category to 75%. They said that 85% of the crop is at the dough stage (76% normally) and the the crop is 40% dented as opposed to 35% for the 5-year average. MARS lowered their forecast for the EU-28 average corn yield to 7.23 MT/ha from 7.42 MT/ha. Yields are seen sharply lower in some countries (eg Romania), but this is compensated for by significantly higher yields in others like Hungary. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.33 1/4, down 1 cent; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.42 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed with Minneapolis spring wheat again the firmest market. Weekly export inspections of 530,824 MT were OK, and about what the trade had in mind. Weekly crop progress has this year's US spring wheat crop 65% harvested against only 46% normally at this time. MARS lowered EU soft wheat yields from the 6.10 MT/ha estimated last month to 5.86 MT. mainly down to an 11% cut for France "due to knock-on effects of large rainfall amounts, low radiation and consequent high disease pressure during late May and June." Russia's harvest is going well, producing a grain crop of over 80 MMT so far including 57.5 MMT of wheat. Russian seaports only exported 406.8 TMT of grains last week though, down from 716.6 TMT the previous week, according to APK Inform. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.15 1/4, down 11 3/4 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.13 3/4, down 5 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.32, up 1 1/4 cents.



20 August 2016 | Chicago Reports
19/08/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower on the day but higher for the week. The 30 and 90 day forecasts show a normal precipitation pattern through to harvest-time. Strong demand, especially from China underpins. The USDA announced another 261,000 MT of US soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/17 marketing year under the daily reporting system today. Such announcements are now becoming an almost daily occurrence. Talk of a wholesale switch to corn production in Brazil and Argentina next season will only serve to keep the supply pipeline tight on beans through 2016/17 it seems. Sep 16 Soybeans settled at $10.27, down 5 1/4 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.04 1/2, down 10 cents; Sep 16 Soybean Meal settled at $330.00, down $4.40; Sep 16 Soybean Oil settled at 34.14, down 5 points. For the week front month beans gained 13 3/4 cents, meal fell $2.90 and oil added 224 points.

Corn: Corn closed firmer on the day and for the week. Fresh news was hard to come by today. FranceAgriMer lowered French corn crop ratings 5 points to 63% good/very good. The Argentine harvest is now said to be 85% done at 24.3 MMT. The trade is looking forward to next week's Pro Farmer crop tour to see if the USDA's bumper 175 bu/acre yield is pie in the sky. Twitter is full of reports suggesting that it is. Nevertheless, the US crop is likely to be record large again this year. High domestic prices will encourage the South American grower to switch acres significantly into corn for 2016/17 the market suggests. The Ukraine Ag Ministry estimates corn production there this year to reach 26 MMT. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.34 1/4, up 2 1/4 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.43 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents. For the week Sep 16 was up 12 cents and Dec 16 gained 10 3/4 cents.

Wheat: Wheat closed mixed, with MGEX wheat gaining the most on the day and for the week. Russia's wheat harvest is 54.4% done and has already reached the 53.5 MMT mark if official figures are correct. The AG Ministry there now suggest that total grain exports in 2016/17 might reach the 40 MMT mark, well ahead of 33.9 MMT last season - and that itself was a record. The French wheat harvest is now almost over at 97% complete as of Monday. The UK harvest is 40% done, but forecast heavy and widespread rains over the weekend will stall progress here. EU soft wheat export licences are currently running 24% ahead of last year's pace, with Romanina particularly active. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.27, unchanged; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.18 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.30 3/4, up 3 cents. For the week Chicago wheat was up 4 1/2 cents, Kansas added 2 1/2 cents and Minneapolis put on 14 3/4 cents. Short covering in Minneapolis wheat continues be a feature.



19 August 2016 | Chicago Reports
18/08/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed mixed, either side of unchanged. Weekly export sales came in at 177,900 MT for 2015/16 and 1,597,900 MT on new crop primarily for unknown destinations (827,000 MT) and China (694,200 MT). Exports of 865,100 MT were down 14 percent from the previous week, but up 27 percent from the prior 4-week average. Strong demand and a lack of competitive offers out of South America underpins the market. The market is thinking that this demand means that a record crop isn't so much of a burden to world supplies in 2016/17 as a necessary requirement. China are offering 600 TMT of state-owned beans up for auction tomorrow. An insipid response is expected due to the age/condition of what is on offer. Sep 16 Soybeans settled at $10.32 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.14 1/2, down 1 1/2 cents; Sep 16 Soybean Meal settled at $334.40, down $2.30; Sep 16 Soybean Oil settled at 34.19, up 18 points.

Corn: The corn market closed a cent or two firmer. Old crop sales are winding down. Weekly export sales of 167,400 MT for 2015/16 were a marketing-year low - down 72 percent from the previous week and 61 percent from the prior 4-week average. New crop sales of 1,042,700 MT were better, reported primarily for Mexico (425,200 MT), unknown destinations (269,300 MT), and Japan (152,400 MT). Exports of 1,166,300 MT were down 19 percent from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. Cumulative new crop sales are 10.1 MMT vs just 6.6 MMT this time last year. Under the daily reporting system the USDA also reported 101,600 MT of US corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/17 marketing year. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange say that Argentine growers will increase corn plantings 25% for next season to 4.5 million ha (3.6 million this season). Planting begins a few weeks from now. Ukraine said that thy'd exported 444 TMT of corn so far this season. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.32, up 1 3/4 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.42, up 2 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed a touch firmer. Weekly export sales of 489,500 MT for 2016/17 were down 19 percent from the previous week, but up 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. These included 92,000 MT for Brazil. Exports of 717,900 MT were a marketing-year high - up 77 percent from the previous week and 52 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Brazil (164,600 MT), Japan (127,500 MT), Nigeria (65,800 MT), Mexico (63,300 MT) and Taiwan (53,000 MT). Japan bought 87,430 MT of US, Canadian and Australian wheat in their regular weekly tender. Jordan bought 50 TMT of feed barley at $189 C&F and are in the market for a further 100,000 MT. Tunisia tendered for 42 TMT of durum wheat. Ukraine said that they'd exported 2.43 MMT of wheat and 1.90 MMT of barley so far this season. The EU approved 538,000 MT of soft wheat export licenses this week. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.27, up 1 cent; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.21, up 2 3/4 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.27 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents.



18 August 2016 | Chicago Reports
17/08/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher on strong demand for US product. Private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 381,000 MT of US soybeans for delivery to China during the 2016/17 marketing year under the daily reporting system. They also corrected an Aug 4 announcement for 129,000 MT of corn sold to unknown for 2016/17 to be soybeans. Media reports suggest that 2 of 6 Cargill owned soybean processing plants in Brazil and 2 of 5 Louis Dreyfus facilities are idle due to "the current S&D situation" ie. a lack of beans. Given that Brazil won't even start planting again for new crop until Sep 16 then this situation could continue, if not get worse, for some considerable time. Argentine farmers are said to be reluctant sellers due to currency/inflation considerations. This gives the US a large window of opportunity to market it's record 2016 crop. "Without an expansion in acreage and a normal yield in Brazil the world carryout to use ratio falls to equal the situation of 2012," noted FCStone. Both Brazil and Argentine growers are expected to plant more corn for 2016/17. Name your price America. Sep 16 Soybeans settled at $10.30 1/2, up 11 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.16, up 8 3/4 cents; Sep 16 Soybean Meal settled at $336.70, unchanged; Sep 16 Soybean Oil settled at 34.01, up 63 points.

Corn: The market closed with small gains. Weekly ethanol production tied at the all-time high of 1.029 million barrels per day. Brazil continues to be a buyer and importer of US ethanol as their production has shifted towards sugar and away from bio-fuel. They are a buyer of US corn too as their safrinha crop falls victim to drought and exporters pay the price for being extremely aggressive marketeers earlier in the season, a situation similar to that on beans. Fund money still holds a sizable short position in corn, and is credited for covering in around 8,000 lots opf that short today. The ProFarmer crop tour kicks off next week, traders will be looking to that to see if the USDA's record 175 bu/acre yield estimate released last week holds water. Many are discounting this figure as being too high, at least for now. The Delta continues to receive more rain than it needs, stalling harvest activity there. The 5-day forecast has more modest rainfall in it, but spread over a wider area. Temperatures are expected to moderate in the 6-10 day forecast. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.30 1/4, up 2 3/4 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.39 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed firmer. Russian grain production estimates are creeping ever higher, so much so that analysts are now questioning their ability to safely store a 115-118 MMT crop. Logistics in exporting record volumes in 2016/17 are also being questioned. Meanwhile the EU crop keeps getting smaller with the focus now on Germany, who's DRV yesterday cut production estimates for wheat, barley, corn and OSR citing adverse weather conditions. If Europe hasn't got it to sell, and Russia has problems shipping it then there may be an opportunity for US wheat to make some inroads to North African/Middle Eastern homes later in the season. Russian growers are also said to be disheartened by current low prices and are looking to hold wheat in the hope that things move higher. Winter planting for the 2017 harvest is already underway in both Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine shippers are aggressive with their offerings now, but are likely to be sold out on wheat come the spring. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.26, up 2 1/2 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.18 1/4, up 7 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.24 1/4, up 7 3/4 cents.



17 August 2016 | Chicago Reports
16/08/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed a little lower on consolidation from yesterday's rally. China was back in the market booking 119,000 MT of US beans for new crop delivery under the daily reporting system. The trade struggles to weigh up the impending likely record 2016 US soybean crop against record demand from China, accompanied by a significant slowdown in exports from South America. US crop conditions (72% good to excellent) are the best for this week since 2004. Some question whether conditions are too wet to achieve the record yields and production that the USDA now has pencilled in. "Ultra-wet conditions have become detrimental for crops in some areas in August, washing fertilizers out of the root zone, even drowning plants in the low lying areas. Recurring showers the past several weeks have grown excessive in Illinois, the leading soybean state, where 2- 3 times the normal rainfall has developed. Excessive rainfall is hampering crops in Minnesota and Missouri, as well. Kentucky was extremely wet, receiving 3 times the normal rainfall the past few weeks. The new forecast continues very wet," say Martell Crop Projections. Sep 16 Soybeans settled at $10.19 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $10.07 1/4, down 2 cents; Sep 16 Soybean Meal settled at $336.70, down $2.90; Sep 16 Soybean Oil settled at 33.38, up 17 points.

Corn: Corn closed flat to 1 cent higher. Fresh news was limited. As with beans, not everyone is convinced that the US can bring in a record 175 bu/acre average corn yield this year. "Corn benefits from heavy rainfall in July, strong showers promoting successful pollination in corn. This insures that a large number of kernels would develop on the ear. 'Rain makes grain' is the common phrase. However, rainfall has continued heavy in August, perhaps becoming too much of a good thing. Along with the warm night temperatures, corn prospects have declined in Illinois and Indiana," say Martell Crop Projections. Heavy rains continue today and are expected throughout the 7 day forecast for the south which will halt almost all harvest activity there. Warmer than normal night-time temperatures continue for the Midwest Midwest for another 5 days before they give way to much below normal temperatures in a wet 6-10 day forecast. Germany's DRV lowered their forecast for the 2016 corn crop there by 0.5 MMT from last month to 4.0 MMT. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.27 1/2, up 1 cent; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.37 1/4, up 1/4 cent.

Wheat: Wheat closed narrowly mixed across the three exchanges. The US winter wheat harvest is just about done and the spring wheat harvest approaches halfway. Demand for US wheat is sluggish, but improved prospects are hoped for following a large-scale downgrade to the crop in Europe. Germany's DRV today lowered their forecast for 2016 grain production there from 44.7 MMT to 44.9 MMT due to "significantly lower estimated yields per hectare for all cereals. This year's result is more than 8 percent below last year's value," they said. "Reason for the disappointing results are in particular the adverse weather conditions in recent months," they added. Wheat production was forecast at 24.2 MMT versus 25.4 MMT previously and some 9% below last year. Winter barley production is seen down more than 9% at 8.8 MMT and spring barley output declining by almost 9% to 1.8 MMT. There are no such problems in Russia though where IKAR raised the bar for grain production this year by 2 MMT to 116 MMT, upping wheat 1 MMT to 70 MMT. These estimates are still quite conservative and could be raised again, they said. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.23 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.11 1/4, down 1/2 cent; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.16 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents.



16 August 2016 | Chicago Reports
15/08/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed with decent gains as the trade focuses on the demand side of the WASDE equation rather than the record US supply side. Weekly US soybean export inspections were 746,371 MT - smaller than a week ago, but still almost double the amount inspected during the same week a year ago. Very strong demand from China in recent weeks underpins, although there were no announcements under the daily reporting system today. The USDA pegged soybean crop conditions unchanged at 72% good to excellent. They said that 95% of the crop is blooming (93% on average) and 80% setting pods (75% on average). The NOPA crush report for July came in at 143.715 million bu which was lower than the 146.7 million expected. Sep 16 Soybeans closed at $10.23 3/4, up 24 3/4 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans closed at $10.09 1/3, up 27 1/2 cents; Sep 16 Soybean Meal is at $339.60, up $7.10; Sep 16 Soybean Oil is at 33.21, up 118 points.

Corn: The corn market closed 3-4 cents higher. The trade doesn't seem to believe that the USDA's 175 bu/acre yield estimate from Friday will come true. Weekly export inspections came in at 1.172 MMT which is about what was expected. The USDA left corn crop conditions unchanged at 74% good to excellent, although there was a 1 point switch from VG into E. They said that 73% of the crop is at the dough stage (60% typically at this time) and that the crop is 21% dented, which is in line with the 5-year average. The Brazilian government are said to be planning to rebuild their strategic corn stockpiles back to 2.0 to 2.3 MMT in 2017. That would help keep corn supplies there tight. Russia said that they'd exported 158.5 TMT of corn Jul 1 to Aug 10. Ukraine seaports shipped out 14.9 TMT of corn last week and Russian seaports nil as they both await the arrival of new crop supplies. Sep 16 Corn closed at $3.26 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents; Dec 16 Corn closed at $3.37, up 4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed across the three exchanges. Weekly export inspections of 625,154 MT were more than 50% larger than last week. The USDA has the 2016 US winter wheat harvest at 97% complete versus 95% normally at this time. Spring wheat is 48% harvested against 30% normally. Spring wheat crop conditions fell 2 points in the good to excellent category to 66%. There are some questioning the FSU's ability to export the kind of volumes of wheat that the USDA predicted on Friday, with much depending on the weather and logistical issues across the depths of their winter. Syria are reported to be tendering for 1 MMT of Russian wheat. Ukraine said that their seaports shipped out 413.1 TMT of wheat last week and Russia's exported 634.4 TMT. The 2016 Russian grain harvest is said to be 46.4% complete at 72.7 MMT. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.22, down 1/2 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.11 3/4, down 4 1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.15 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents.



13 August 2016 | Chicago Reports
12/08/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower, but not by much. The USDA surprised the trade with a 48.9 bu/acre national average soybean yield and estimated production at 4.060 billion bushels. The trade was anticipating a national average soybean yield of 47.6 bu/acre and US production of somewhere between 3.865 to 4.054 billion bushels. Apart from that change to the global supply and demand balance sheet most other items of note were left unchanged, with production in Brazil (103 MMT) and Argentina (57 MMT) unchanged along with imports (87 MMT) from China. World ending stocks were however raised more than 4 MMT to 71.2 MMT. The increase in US production more than offset a rise in their exports in 2016/17 to 53 MMT and ups ending stocks 1 MMT to 8.9 MMT. Aug 16 Soybeans settled at $10.03 1/4, down 19 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.81 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents; Aug 16 Soybean Meal settled at $332.90, down $1.00; Aug 16 Soybean Oil settled at 31.90, up 19 points. For the week nearby Aug 16 beans were down just 1/2 cent, Aug 16 meal was $2.90 lower and Aug 16 oil was up 138 points.

Corn: The market closed around a cent higher having been 9 cents lower at one stage. The USDA report came in bearish for corn, raising the 2016 average US corn yield to 175.1 bu/acre, with production at a record 15.153 billion bushels. Argentine 2016/17 corn production was raised from 34 MMT to 36.5 MMT and world production was upped from 1010 MMT to 1028 MMT. Glocal consumption was increased also, up from 1009 MMT to 1017 MMT, but ending stocks still rose to 220.8 MMT. The USDA have America taking a larger slice of the global export cake in 2016/17 at 55 MMT versus 52 MMT previously. Brazil's share will drop 1 MMT to 19.5 MMT, although Argentina's will rise 0.5 MMT to 23.5 MMT, they predicted. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed managed money adding another 32,645 contracts to their net short position taking that up to -137k lots. Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.22 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents; Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.33, up 1 1/4 cents. For the week Sep 16 corn was down 2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed higher. The USDA raised US all wheat production to 63.2 MMT from 61.5 MMT previously and sees 2016/17 exports up from 25.0 MMT to 25.5 MMT. European production was dropped 9 MMT from last month to 147.5 MMT. However increases from Russia (up 7 MMT to 72 MMT), Ukraine (up 2 MMT to 27 MMT), Australia, Canada and Kazakhstan all countered the lower EU output to put the world crop almost 5 MMT higher this month at 743.4 MMT. Consumption is seen up 3 MMT to 723.5 MMT. Ending stocks were lowered nearly 1 MMT from 253.7 MMT to 252.8 MMT but still remain at record large levels. EU exports were cut from 34 MMT to 27 MMT, and Russia's raised from 25.5 MMT to 30 MMT, making them the world's leading supplier of the grain. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.22 1/2, up 6 1/4 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.16 1/4, up 4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.16, up 6 1/2 cents. For the week overall, Chicago wheat ended with net gains of 6 1/2 cents, Kansas wheat was up 4 1/2 cents and Minneapolis added 13 1/4 cents.




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