02 July 2015 | Online since 2003


Chicago Reports

2 July 2015 | Chicago Reports
01/07/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower, giving up some, but not anything like all, of yesterday's gains. "Producer selling was noted overnight and early in the session, but slowed with the break in the prices," said Benson Quinn. Today's eventual price action looks like the market had time to step back, take a breather, and conclude that yesterday's steep rises were maybe a little overdone. It's unlikely that this volatility is over just yet however. It's July and we are in a weather market, pure and simple. "The new Midwest forecast is less wet than previously. Temperatures are trending much cooler. The 7 day outlook is for 3-5 F below normal temperatures in the western Corn Belt, 2-3 F below average in the eastern Midwest. Cooler temperatures would continue in the 6-10 day outlook, along with above average rainfall July 6-10," said Martell Crop Projections. Dr Cordonnier, touring Illinois, Iowa and Missouri said "The soybean crop is in trouble, big trouble! Of the soybeans we saw, I would estimate that 40% are good, 30% are mediocre, and 30% are poor to very poor. Where the crop is poor, it is really bad or in some cases nonexistent. In some of the saturated areas, half of the soybeans are missing and the other half is very short, stunted, poor colour, and really struggling. Combining the unplanted soybeans and the soybeans lost due to standing water, the total soybean acreage could be millions of acres short of what was intended. If the weather during July and August would turn out to be normal, that could stabilize the crop, but it would still be disappointing. If the weather over the next two weeks is as wet as it has been for the last several weeks, the soybean crop is going to get a lot worse." Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 200-500 TMT for beans and 100-300 TMT for meal. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $10.44, down 12 1/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $10.29 1/2, down 7 3/4 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $359.80, up $0.30; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 33.01, down 55 points.

Corn: The corn market closed narrowly mixed. Weekly ethanol production slowed to 968,000 barrels per day, down from 994,000 barrels per day the previous week. Dr Cordonnier reported that "the corn crop is highly variable depending on date of planting, rainfall, drainage, and location. The earliest planted corn is the best and the latest planted corn is the worst. A lot of corn is short, yellowish in color, very uneven in height and in development. Where the corn is good, it looks really good, but where it is bad, it looks really bad. Of the corn I saw, I would estimate that 60% is good or better, 20% is mediocre, and 20% is poor or very poor. The corn in Illinois was worse than I expected, the corn in Iowa was about as I expected, and the corn in Missouri was much worse than I expected. Missouri had the worst looking corn, Iowa had the best looking corn, and Illinois was a mixed bag. If the weather during July and August ended up being normal, the corn crop would end up being a disappointment, but not a disaster." It would seem that we are stuck with a fairly wide degree of uncertainty over potential US corn yields until we get much closer to harvest time. Fund money is probably still short on corn, but we won't find out how short they still are until Monday. The usual Commitment of Traders report is delayed until then due to the market being closed on Friday for the Independence Day holiday. The fact that prices have now risen well above the $4/bushel mark, to the best levels in a year, will doubtless have attracted some producer selling. A sharply higher US dollar again today would have been another bearish factor. So, all in all, a virtually unchanged close today was probably not a bad result. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are in the 450-850 TMT region for both marketing years combined. Old crop sales might contribute around 300-500 TMT of that total. Jul 15 Corn closed at $4.13 3/4, down 1/4 cent; Dec 15 Corn closed at $4.31 3/4, up 1/4 cent.

Wheat: The wheat market closed with some fairly steep losses. Large US stocks, the strong dollar, and the continued difficulty to compete on the export front with EU and Black Sea origin wheat were the factors on traders' minds today, not continued wetness on the Plains. "Egypt released another snap tender to buy wheat for early August shipment after the close today. That could remind traders of the high price of US wheat relative to European and Black Sea supplies tomorrow and must be watched," noted Arlan Suderman of Water Street Solutions. He's right, you can expect US wheat to be comfortably outpriced there, if anyone bothers to offer any at all. Weekly export sales tomorrow will be of interest. Last week's sales of 434,300 MT actually managed to beat modest trade expectations for sales of only 200-400,000 MT. What will tomorrow's bring? The trade isn't getting it's hopes too high, estimating these at around 250,000 to 450,000 MT. Russia said that it had harvested 1.6 MMT of new crop grains off 423.4k ha, down compared to 953.6k ha this time a year ago. Wetness in some areas is now delaying the harvest, and that could mean that Jul/Aug exports might be a bit lower than previously expected, SovEcon told Bloomberg. High moisture levels may also damage grain quality, they said. Russia was forecast to have finished the 2014/15 season, which ended yesterday, exporting a record of around 31.7-31.9 MMT of grains, including around 21-22 MMT of wheat. Potential production problems in Europe and Canada (and possibly Australia too) keep getting flagged up. Bloomberg report that field fires in France have burnt some crops in recent days. Meanwhile, a senior economist with the Australia & New Zealand Banking Group said that continuing drought in Canada may create a 12 MMT shortfall in wheat exports in015/16. US winter wheat areas remain wet. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.87 1/2, down 27 1/4 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.76, down 17 1/4 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.07 1/2, down 14 3/4 cents.



1 July 2015 | Chicago Reports
30/06/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with strong gains after the USDA put Jun 1 US soybean stocks at 625 million bushels versus trade ideas of 670-680 million. "Based on the USDA demand balance sheet, 4th quarter demand should be 470 million bu which implies a 14/15 carryout of 200 million bushels or 130 million less than their June estimate of 330 million," noted Benson Quinn. Plantings this year were placed at a record high 85.14 million acres, a bit below the average trade guess of 85.332 million acres, although up versus the USDA's March figure of 84.635 million. Analysts were already pointing out prior to this that this was based on a survey done before the worst of the Midwest wetness hit, so it is widely anticipated that plantings will in fact come in lower than today's forecast. The USDA will apparently re-survey some states and update their acreage figures in their August WASDE report. "From early talk of large increase in soybean acres, today’s number along with lower carryin estimate is bullish with US 15/16 carryout now closer to 325 million than June’s USDA estimate at 475 million," said Benson Quinn. Volume today was "huge" they added, doubtless helped by fund money caught on the wrong side short-covering. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $10.56 1/4, up 53 3/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $10.37 1/4, up 57 1/4 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $359.50, up $17.60; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 33.56, up 51 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around limit up. It's been a long time since I last wrote those words. The USDA put US corn stocks and plantings lower than the trade expected, sparking some frantic short-covering. US June 1 corn stocks were pegged at 4.447 billion bushels versus an average trade guess of 4.557 billion. US corn plantings were estimated at 88.897 million acres versus the March USDA figure of 89.199 million and the average trade guess in a Bloomberg survey of 89.136 million. It is also 1.7 million lower than a year ago. The USDA put harvested acres at 81.101 million which is more than 2 million below last year. "Combine the lower stocks estimate with tighter acres and decreasing yield expectations and things begin to tighten for the 2015 crop. Undoubtedly the top has been taken off the crop with most analyst now pegging the crop towards the mid to lower 160’s per acre. Using 162.5 bushels per acre and 81.101 million acres, total production would be 13.178 bln bushels versus 13.630 bln in the June WASDE report," calculated Benson Quinn. The EU Commission estimated corn production there this year at 68.45 MMT, down 7% from a year ago. South Africa's CEC cut their estimate for this year's corn crop there to 9.755 MMT from 9.84 MMT previously. This would be the smallest crop since 2007, said Bloomberg. Jul 15 Corn closed at $4.14, up 30 3/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $4.31 1/2, up 29 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed with strong gains, supported by spillover from beans and corn. This was despite the USDA pegging US June 1 stocks and the 2015 US wheat acreage higher than the average trade estimates. Wheat stocks of all classes were 753 million bushels versus an average trade guess of 712 million. Plantings were pegged at 56.079 million acres compared to the average pre-report guess of 55.707 million. None of that seemed to matter on a day like today, and wheat joined the other markets and moved strongly higher for a fourth session in a row. Chicago wheat ended at it's highest close of the year on a front month basis. Stats Canada added some friendly news by cutting their forecast for Canadian all wheat plantings to 24.1 million acres, down from a previous government estimate of 24.8 million, and also below the average trade guess of 24.77 million. Rusagrotrans cut their forecast for this year's Russian grain crop to 98 MMT, down from 105.3 MMT a year ago, on dryness in some areas. The head of the Russian Grain Union said that they may drop their wheat production forecast from the current 55 MMT when they release their next estimate. Dryness and extreme heat in many parts of Europe this week might be trimming wheat production potential there. The EU Commission today cut their forecast for this year's EU wheat crop from 141.46 MMT to 139.95 MMT versus 148.76 MMT a year ago. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.14 3/4, up 34 1/4 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.93 1/4, up 21 3/4 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.22 1/4, up 18 1/4 cents.



30 June 2015 | Chicago Reports
29/06/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed mixed, from up a half cent to down 6 cents. Weekly export inspections of 296,860 MT were a 40% increase from the week before. The USDA reported 2015 US soybean planting at 94% complete, up from 90% a week ago, but still 3 points behind the 5-year average. Kansas has caught up a bit to be 86% planted, although that's still 10 points behind normal. Missouri is only 62% done versus 94% typically at this time. Emergence was placed at 89% versus 94% for the 5-year average. The USDA said that 8% of the crop is now blooming, one point behind the 5-year average. Good to excellent crop conditions fell 2 points from last week to 63% which is now 9 points behind last year at this time. "Big declines for IL (-8%), IN (-9%) and OH (-11%) were reported for a second week and were joined this week by MI (-8%). The soybean crop in OH fell to 44% gd/ex which is down 25% over the past two weeks while IL rating are down 18% over the past two weeks and IN is down 22%," noted Benson Quinn. The trade is now looking to tomorrow's USDA acreage and quarterly stocks report. A Bloomberg survey pegs US 2015 soybean plantings at an average 85.332 million acres versus the USDA's March figure of 84.635 million. The range of guesses is 83.76-86.80 million and plantings in 2014 were 83.701 million. For June 1 US stocks the average estimate is 679 million bushels, from within a range of estimates of 604-773 million and versus 405 million a year ago. "Stocks anything less than 730 million should be bullish as implies USDA is overstating old crop ending stocks," said Benson Quinn. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $10.02 1/2, up 1/2 cent; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.80, down 6 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $341.90, up $0.60; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 33.05, down 17 points.

Corn: The corn market closed with mostly small losses. Weekly export inspections came in at just over 1 MMT, in line with where they have been for several weeks now. The USDA cut good to excellent corn crop ratings by 3 points to 68%, down from 75% this time last year. "Biggest declines were in the eastern corn belt with -19% in OH, -10% IN and -8 in IL," noted Benson Quinn. "Heavy Midwest rainfall developed from strong thunderstorms once again last week. It was the 4th consecutive week of excessive rainfall in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and Missouri. The cumulative June rainfall has reached 8 to 12 inches on Midwest farms compared to 4 inches, normally. The new forecast continues wet in a wide swath of the Midwest farm belt from Missouri into Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. The forecast for June 29-July 5 is significantly cooler than previously. This would slow down evaporation in the soggy areas of the Eastern Midwest. Temperatures are predicted to fall 3-6 F below normal," said Martell Crop Projections. The USDA also said that 4% of the 2015 US corn crop is now at the silking stage, half of the 5-year average. A Bloomberg survey estimates 2015 US corn plantings in tomorrow's USDA report at 89.136 million acres, from within a range of guesses of 88.10-91.742 million, little changed versus the March USDA figure of 89.199 million and down 1.6% from last year's 90.597 million. June 1 US stocks are pegged at 4.557 billion bushels. The range of estimates is 4.35-4.70 billion and a year ago stocks were 3.852 billion. Ukraine said that they'd exported 18.8 MMT of corn so far this season. Russia said that they'd exported 2.9 MMT of corn, a 27% drop on a year ago. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.83 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $4.02 1/4, up 1/4 of a cent.

Wheat: The wheat market closed with decent gains, building on Friday's advances. The front month July CBOT contract has now gained 12% in three sessions, noted Agrimoney. This was "a reflection of what is going on with the soft red winter wheat crop, and the disappointing pace of harvest," they said. The USDA reported the 2015 US winter wheat harvest at 38% complete, up from 19% a week ago and not that far behind the 5-year average pace of 46% done at this time. Top producing state Kansas is 48% done compered to 60% normally. They left winter wheat crop conditions unchanged at 41% good to excellent, and raise spring wheat one point to 72% G/E, which is now 2 points ahead of this time last year. They said that 49% of this year's spring wheat crop is headed compared to only 29% typically at this time. The wet weather is causing quality issues with winter wheat, which has pushed Chicago wheat to trade at an unusual premium to the Kansas market. Weekly export inspections of 316,515 MT were fairly modest, but in line with trade estimates. A Bloomberg survey estimated US all wheat plantings for tomorrow at 55.707 million acres, from within a range of guesses of 55.10-56.80 million and versus 56.822 million a year ago and the USDA's March forecast of 55.367 million. US June 1 wheat stocks were seen at 712 million bushels, with a range of estimates of 650-765 million and versus last year's 590 million. Russia said that it had exported more than 30 MMT of grains so far this season, up 19% on a year ago. That includes 21.3 MMT of wheat, a 17% increase compared to 2013/14 and 5.3 MMT of barley, up more than 200% on a year ago. Ukraine said that it had exported 10.83 MMT of wheat so far this season, along with 4.46 MMT of barley. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.80 1/2, up 18 1/4 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.71 1/2, up 12 1/4 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.04, up 8 1/4 cents.



27 June 2015 | Chicago Reports
26/06/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher, but were a follower rather than a leader today. Continued wetness means that "the market isn’t expecting much progress over last week concerning planted acres," according to Benson Quinn concerning Monday's crop progress report from the USDA. As of last Sunday night around 8.5 million acres of US soybeans still had to be planted. Last week's figure of 90% sown may have advanced to perhaps 93-94% done it is thought. Once Monday's report is out of the way, we only have one more sleep until we get the USDA's key acreage and quarterly stocks reports due out on Tuesday. A Bloomberg survey pegs US 2015 soybean plantings at an average 85.332 million acres versus the USDA's March figure of 84.635 million. The range of guesses is 83.76-86.80 million and plantings in 2014 were 83.701 million. As of last Sunday only around 76.2 million acres of soybeans were in the ground, and in some cases they were under water. For June 1 US stocks the average estimate is 679 million bushels, from within a range of estimates of 604-773 million and versus 405 million a year ago. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said the Argentine 2015 soybean harvest is now 99.6% done, bringing in 60.7 MMT of an estimated record 60.8 MMT crop this year. The weekly Commitment of Traders report shows managed money flipping from a net short of around 63,500 lots to a near 2,000 contract long position for the week through to Tuesday night. "Plenty of shorts are caught on the wrong side in addition to the funds attempting the exit positions," suggested Benson Quinn. That could bring further choppy trade next week in the run-up to these important USDA announcements. In China, the Shanghai Composite closed almost 7.5% lower on Friday "as investors began to show concern about another wave of new listings absorbing liquidity in the market," reported the BBC. In Brazil's state of Mato Grosso, the planting of safrinha soybeans will be prohibited starting with the 2015/16 growing season, and the state of Parana may end up going the same way, says Dr Cordonnier. Mato Grosso has a compulsory 138 day soybean-free period starting on May 1st and ending on September 15th. Parana currently only has a 92-day ban on growing soybeans. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $10.02, up 1 3/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.86, up 8 1/4 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $341.30, up $4.60; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 33.22, down 14 points. For the week that puts Jul 15 beans 30 1/2 cents higher, with Nov 15 up 46 1/4 cents, Jul 15 meal up $18.20 and Jul 15 oil adding 67 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 8-10 cents higher. Midwest wetness supports the market, which advanced more than 30 cents during the course of the week. A Bloomberg survey estimates 2015 US corn plantings in next Tuesday's USDA report at 89.136 million acres, from within a range of guesses of 88.10-91.742 million, little changed versus the March USDA figure of 89.199 million and down 1.6% from last year's 90.597 million. June 1 US stocks are pegged at 4.557 billion bushels. The range of estimates is 4.35-4.70 billion and a year ago stocks were 3.852 billion. Before we get the new USDA numbers, the trade will be looking at crop conditions in Monday's USDA crop progress report. Ohio good to excellent fell 19 percentage points last week alone, with Indiana down 15%, North Caroline down 11% and Illinois corn falling 6% on the top two categories. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed that managed money accounts had decreased their net short position by 25,649 contracts for the week through to Tuesday night, but they are still short around 95,000 lots. Those shorts will be feeling a little nervous ahead of the release of next week's USDA numbers. Meanwhile the Midwest is not the only area in the world experiencing excessively wet conditions, say Martell Crop Projections. "China’s top corn province Heilongjiang also is too wet with 150-200% of normal rainfall in recent weeks. Heavy rain that began in mid May has intensified in June, adding up to 200 mm (8 inches) in western Heilongjiang. The eastern province received 165 mm of rainfall. These rainfall amounts are way above average, hampering corn planting efforts. Heilongjiang is the largest corn province in China making up 18-20% of national corn output. A delayed start to the corn spring planting season in Northeast China may lead to trouble, limiting heat units for corn growth and development. The growing season is relatively short due the northern latitude," they say. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that the Argentine corn harvest is 49.1% complete on 1.6 million ha, producing a crop of 13.87 MMT so far, and stood by their estimate for full season output of 25 MMT this year. FranceAgri Mer cut French corn crop ratings by 2 points to 83% good to very good. Coceral estimate this year's EU-28 corn crop down 11% to 65.74 MMT. Output in France, the largest producer in Europe, will fall 9% to 14.89 MMT, they said. Temperatures may near 100F (38C) in corn areas in southern France in the second half of next week, a senior meteorologist at AccuWeather told Bloomberg. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.85, up 8 1/2 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $4.02, up 9 3/4 cents. For the week, Jul 15 corn was up 31 3/4 cents, and Dec 15 added 33 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed with strong gains on the day, and for the week. "We’ve seen a period of generally favorable weather for wheat production around the world, outside of the Plains drought. However, that pattern appears to be over, with talk of heat and dryness in Europe, Russia, Canada and expectations that El Nino will lead it to be a problem in the Australian spring," said Arlan Suderman of Water Street Solutions. That Plains drought has given way to excessive rains, hampering winter wheat harvesting in the US and potentially causing problems for some spring wheat areas later in the season too. As often happens, the hot and dry weather on the US Plains earlier in the season, seems to mean that protein levels are high this year though, even if bushel weights are lower than had been hoped for in what has been harvested so far. French winter wheat conditions are in decline, cut by 4 points in the good to very good category by FranceAgriMer today, having been dropped 2 points the previous week. Conditions are however still better than they were this time a year ago, but the concern now is that further serious heat due next week could cause more damage. Spain's Cooperativas Agro-Alimentarias meanwhile slashed their crop production estimates for wheat and barley compared to what they were hoping to achieve only a month ago. They now have the Spanish wheat crop estimated down 14% year-on-year at 4.92 MMT, well below the 7.53 MMT that they were predicting in May. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange were unchanged on their estimate for Argentine winter wheat plantings at 3.9 million ha. Coceral today estimated the EU-28 soft wheat crop down 5.2% on last year at 140.62 MMT, with all wheat production down 4.9% at 148.22 MMT. The EU-28 barley crop was pegged down 5.8% at 56.68 MMT. A Bloomberg survey estimated US all wheat plantings for Tuesday at 55.707 million acres, from within a range of guesses of 55.10-56.80 million and versus 56.822 million a year ago and the USDA's March forecast of 55.367 million. US June 1 wheat stocks were seen at 712 million bushels, with a range of estimates of 650-765 million and versus last year's 590 million. "The situation for Western Canadian wheat production is dire as temps will be well above normal through much of next week," said Benson Quinn. Rabobank said that they see the potential for “considerable price volatility” related to El Nino in global wheat prices in August and September when Australian yields are determined on east coast. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.62 1/4, up 30 1/4 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.59 1/4, up 24 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.95 3/4, up 21 1/4 cents. For the week, that puts Chicago wheat up 73 3/4 cents, with the Kansas market adding 56 cents and Minneapolis gaining 52 3/4 cents.



26 June 2015 | Chicago Reports
25/06/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans and meal closed with strong gains, with beans closing above $10/bu on a front month for the first time since Mar 3. Weekly export sales refuse to die on old crop, coming in at 118,800 MT, along with a further 202,500 MT on the new crop. Shipments for the week to Jun 18 were 150,000 MT taking total exports so far this season to almost 47.4 MMT. A further 3.1 MMT of outstanding sales takes total net commitments for 2014/15 to 50.5 MMT, which is 101.5% of the USDA target for the season. Heavy overnight rain, and the forecast for more to come sparked some short-covering. "Standing water from flooding threatens Midwest soybeans, especially, planted later than corn and smaller in size. The worst conditions were in Missouri, Illinois, Indiana and Ohio, as of June 21st , where widespread flooding has developed. Missouri soybeans were the worst of the lot only 34% good-excellent, while Illinois soybeans were the best with 60% good-excellent," said Martell Crop Projections. MDA CropCast cut 72 million bushels off last week's US soybean production forecast, taking that down to 3.751 billion bushels, a 5.4% decline on a year ago. The IGC released their first soybean estimates for 2015/16, pegging the global soybean crop at 316 MMT versus the USDA's 317.6 MMT estimate. "Global soybean plantings could expand slightly in 2015/16 but, with average yields potentially retreating, production is likely to fall. Nevertheless, owing to large carry-in stocks, global supplies are anticipated to remain comfortable and, with processing and consumption expected to grow more moderately, world ending are set to rise to a fresh peak," the IGC said. Looming rapeseed/canola tightness was noted: "Despite anticipated demand rationing, world rapeseed/canola ending stocks are set to fall by more than one-quarter year on year, to 4.0 MMT," they added. They have this year's Argentine soybean crop at 61 MMT, falling a little to 57 MMT next season. Brazil's output is seen rising from 96 MMT to 98 MMT next season. This year's US crop was pegged at 104.8 MMT, a carbon copy of the USDA's current prediction. China's imports were seen at 73.5 MMT this season, rising to a new record 78 MMT in the next. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that farmers there have 48% of their 2014/15 soybeans sold versus 41% a year ago. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $10.00 1/4, up 18 1/2 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.77 3/4, up 21 3/4 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $336.70, up $8.70; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 33.36, up 9 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 10-12 cents firmer. Midwest wetness prompted some short-covering. Export sales were fair at 496,800 MT for delivery in 2014/15 and 297,500 MT for 2015/16. China took one cargo of the old crop. Shipments themselves of 1.1 MMT were in line with what's required to meet the USDA's target for the season. China also accounted for one cargo of those this week. Strong storms that were said to have hit southern Iowa last night then dropped down into some of the more saturated areas of Missouri, dumping up to 7” of rain on the region, said Arlan Suderman of Water Street Solutions. "Corn has weathered the extreme wetness better than soybeans, planted earlier, and therefore taller and less susceptible to drowning. US corn was 71% good-excellent June 21st, significantly better than 60% good-excellent in US soybeans. This would be the 3rd time in 6 years of June flooding in Midwest crops. How did corn respond to previous June excessive wetness? The US corn yield did not suffer as much as anticipated, the 2010 national corn yield finishing right on the trend line – average – while the 2014 yield was significantly above trend," noted Gail Martell of Martell Crop Projections. Could it be that the market is over-reacting here, and forgetting the old adage that "rain makes grain"? This year's El Nino has been likened to the previous "record" event of 1997/98. US corn yields that season were virtually unchanged from the previous year, falling less than a half percent, and soybean yields actually finished higher, up 3.6%. MDA CropCast cut their US corn production estimate by 51 million bushels to 13.7509 billion, a fall of 4.3% on last year's record crop. They also trimmed 1.53 MMT off Ukraine's crop, taking that down to 24.7 MMT. The IGC estimated the global 2015/16 corn crop at 961 MMT, up 10 MMT from last month, although 3.6% down on last year's record. They estimated world ending stocks 6 MMT higher than a month ago at 187 MMT. Argentina's crop this season was placed at 30 MMT, falling to 28 MMT next season. Brazil's crop was estimated at 80 MMT, dropping back to 78 MMT next season. This year's US crop was forecast at 332 MMT, considerably less than the USDA's current 346 MMT estimate. Taiwan are tendering for 40-65,000 MT of US, Brazilian, Argentine or South African corn. Indonesia are said to be in the market for 50,000 MT of Brazilian material. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that farmers there have 53% of their 2014/15 corn sold versus 44% a year ago. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.76 1/2, up 10 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.92 1/4, up 11 3/4 cents. Mar 16 corn closed above $4 for the first time since April 23.

Wheat: The wheat market closed with robust double digit gains on all three exchanges. Weekly export sales of 434,300 MT actually managed to beat modest trade expectations for sales of 200-400,000 MT. Exports this week came in at 388,300 MT. The US appears to be getting all of Canada's rainfall as well as their own. "In western Canada, a large ridge of high pressure would be in control blocking rainfall and perpetuating drought in spring wheat. The forecast is very dry in the prairie provinces, providing a sharp contrast from the very wet conditions anticipated in Midwest," said Martell Crop Projections. Today's gains came despite the IGC adding 10 MMT to last month's forecast for the global 2015/16 wheat crop, taking that up to 715 MMT, a modest 0.8% drop on a year ago. World ending stocks in 2015/16 were raised 6 MMT to 200 MMT. The USDA currently have the world 2015/16 wheat crop at 721.5 MMT, and global carryout at 202.4 MMT. The IGC's numbers included an optimistic looking 27 MMT wheat crop in Australia this year, production of 150 MMT in Europe, a 3 MMT hike in Russian output to 55 MMT and a 1 MMT increase for Ukraine taking their crop up to 21 MMT. They cut their outlook on the US all wheat crop by 0.8 MMT to 58.2 MMT. MDA CropCast estimated the world wheat crop at 710.6 MMT this year. They were unchanged on the US all wheat crop at 2.186 billion bushels. The National Bank of Australia said that El Nino could cut wheat production there this year to 20 MMT or less, which is far below the estimates currently in the market place from the likes of ABARES, the USDA and the IGC. That would potentially be Australia's smallest wheat crop since 2007/08 if their prediction comes true. Europe is set to kick off July with some very warm temperatures, which could cause a few yield losses in Spain, France, Germany, Poland and even the UK. Temperatures at home here in the UK are forecast to hit 30C and maybe even higher, peaking around Wednesday/Thursday next week. These should be accompanied by some heavy thunderstorms though. The preliminary results of a Bloomberg survey found traders/analysts forecasting and average EU soft wheat crop of 140.8 MMT this year. The French soft wheat crop was estimated at an average of 37.6 MMT and the German all wheat crop at 25.8 MMT. A previous survey had soft wheat production in Europe at 140.1 MMT, with France at 38.1 MMT and the German all wheat crop at 25.8 MMT. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that farmers there have 82% of their 2014/15 wheat sold versus 58% a year ago. Japan tendered for 114,510 MT of wheat, buying 87,380 MT of it from the US, with the rest being of Canadian origin. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.32, up 14 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.35 1/4, up 10 3/4 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.74 1/2, up 10 3/4 cents.



25 June 2015 | Chicago Reports
24/06/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed around 4-5 cents easier. It seems that the trade has positioned itself where it wants to be heading into next week's USDA acreage and quarterly stocks report due on Tuesday. "Regardless of concerns about pending production, it appears the funds have pared their positions to manageable levels and the trade may need a new supportive story to sustain this move into the report," said Benson Quinn. A Bloomberg survey pegs US 2015 soybean plantings at an average 85.332 million acres versus the USDA's March figure of 84.635 million. The range of guesses is 83.76-86.80 million and plantings in 2014 were 83.701 million. Allendale said 85.105 million yesterday and Informa were at 86.76 million last week. For June 1 US stocks the average estimate is 679 million bushels, from within a range of estimates of 604-773 million and versus 405 million a year ago. Oil World cut their forecast for the EU rapeseed crop by 200 TMT to 21.8 MMT, a 10.5% decline on a year ago, saying that rapeseed prices would command a "sizeable" premium to soybeans throughout the 2015/16 season. Trade forecasts for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are in the range of 350,000-800,000 MT. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.81 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.56, down 4 3/4 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $328.00, down $3.90; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 33.27, up 45 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around a cent or so lower. The US Energy Dept reported weekly ethanol production at 994,000 barrels/day versus 980,000 bpd the previous week. A Bloomberg survey estimates 2015 US corn plantings at 89.136 million acres, from within a range of guesses of 88.10-91.742 million, little changed versus the March USDA figure of 89.199 million and down 1.6% from last year's 90.597 million. Informa were out last week with an estimate of 89.199 million acres and Allendale gave us the highest trade guess of 91.742 million yesterday. June 1 US stocks are pegged at 4.557 billion bushels. The range of estimates is 4.35-4.70 billion and a year ago stocks were 3.852 billion. Dr Cordonnier said that the Brazilian safrinha corn crop is expected to produce record yields due to "excellent" weather conditions. Brazilian analyst Agroconsult estimate second crop corn production at 52.5 MMT, and maybe more, he said. That takes the total crop up to at least 83 MMT versus a USDA estimate of only 75 MMT. Agroconsult see Brazilian corn exports at a record 27.1 MMT, up by almost a third on 20.6 MMT a year previously and well above the USDA's forecast of 24 MMT. Rusagrotrans forecast Russia's 2015/16 corn exports at 3 MMT. CNGOIC said that China's 2014/15 corn imports may total 4 MMT, despite government attempts to discourage foreign buying and persuade local traders to buy some of their own huge state-owned stockpiles. Ukraine could supply up to half of that volume it is thought. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are in the range of 650,000 MT to 800,000 MT. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.66 1/2, down 1 cent; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.80 1/2, down 3/4 cent.

Wheat: The wheat market gave up some of the gains achieved over the past couple of sessions. A Bloomberg survey estimated US all wheat plantings at 55.707 million acres, from within a range of guesses of 55.10-56.80 million and versus 56.822 million a year ago and the USDA's March forecast of 55.367 million. US June 1 wheat stocks were seen at 712 million bushels, with a range of estimates of 650-765 million and versus last year's 590 million. Japan is in the market for 114,500 MT of wheat of mixed origin in it's usual weekly tender. South Korea are tendering for 50,000 MT of Australian wheat for Nov/Dec shipment. Russia bought 29,295 MT of wheat at today's intervention purchase round, taking the total bought so far to 1.164 MMT. Dryness in parts of Europe and Canada remain a concern. In Canada, prairie spring wheat prospects have been dimmed by drought, probably because of a strong El Nino, said Martell Crop Projections. "Out of seven El Nino’s in the past, dating back to 1980, just one resulted in a favourable wheat yield – the 1982 spring wheat harvest. A second was mediocre, the 1991 wheat yield just slightly below trend. Very poor wheat yields occurred in 5 of the other 7 El Nino years," they noted. "Growing season rainfall has been deficient in Saskatchewan and Alberta, the leading 2 wheat provinces, where just 40-60% of normal rainfall has developed in the past 2 months. Manitoba wheat has fared better, the smallest of the 3 prairie provinces, with heavier rainfall in the past several weeks. Unfavorable dry conditions have developed in western Manitoba, bordering Saskatchewan however," they said. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales are a modest 200-400,000 MT. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.18, down 3 1/2 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.24 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.63 3/4, down 6 cents.



24 June 2015 | Chicago Reports
23/06/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans, meal and oil all closed with small losses on the nears, although there were some minimal gains in some of the deferred positions. The latter probably came as a result of concerns over the US weather. Whilst a reduction of 2 percentage points in the good to excellent category by the USDA last night was in line with market expectations, some states showed much sharper declines that that. Ohio was down 14% in the G/E category, Indiana fell 13% and Illinois was cut 10%, and of course these are not insignificant soybean producing states. As far as plantings go, 90% complete is the slowest pace since 1996, according to Bloomberg. Last night's report suggested that there were still around 8.5 million acres of soybeans still to be sown in the US this year, using the USDA's March planting intentions estimate. That includes around 4 million in Missouri/Kansas and Nebraska, plus approximately another 0.5 million in Illinois. Despite these problems, Allendale estimated US soybean plantings this year at 85.105 million acres versus the USDA's March figure of 84.635 million. Rabobank said that they still expect US plantings to beat the March USDA figure by around 1 million acres. Futures International forecast 2015 US soybean yields to average 44 bu/acre, which is 2 bu/acre less than the USDA. Oil World said that Europe imported 4 MMT of soybeans Mar/May, up 21% from a year ago. Meal imports were down slightly at 5.26 MMT. The largest bean supplier was Brazil with 2.37 MMT, followed by Paraguay at almost 1 MMT. China said that they'd imported 6.127 MMT of soybeans in May, up 3% from a year previously. Brazil at 5.427 MMT was easily the largest supplying nation. Rabobank estimated China's 2014/15 soybean imports at 73.5 MMT, rising to a record 77.5 MMT in 2015/16. They forecast Q4 2015 Chicago soybeans at an average of $8.90, rising to $9.00 in Q2 of next year. Meal prices were estimated averaging $295 in the final quarter of this year, rising to $310 in Q2 of 2016. If they are correct then the market is currently overvalued. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.87 1/2, down 2 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.60 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $331.90, down $1.70; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 32.82, down 10 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 7-8 cents higher. Deteriorating crop conditions, especially in the eastern corn belt likely prompted some short-covering today. Last night's USDA report, whilst only cutting overall conditions by 2 percentage points in the good to excellent category on a national level, sliced 19% off the top two categories in Ohio, cut Indiana 15%, North Carolina was dropped 11% and Illinois decreased by 6%. Fund money was estimated as finishing the session a net buyer of around 16,000 contracts. Spillover support from surging wheat was likely another supportive factor today, although you could debate that a rain-ravaged, low quality US wheat crop is in fact more of a direct competitor with corn than if it came in of milling wheat standard. Rabobank estimated the US 2015 corn area at 89.2 million acres, the same as the USDA's March forecast. They said that yields could exceed 163 bu/acre if the weather "continues to be beneficial" - although some would argue that current conditions in some states such as those mentioned above aren't beneficial at all. Allendale estimated US corn plantings far higher at 91.742 million acres this year. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said that this year's developing El Nino is displaying some characteristics of the previous record event of 1997/98. For the record US corn yields were down marginally that year (-0.4%) and soybean yields were up 3.6%. Rabobank added 2 MMT to their Brazilian corn crop estimate, taking that up to 81 MMT, saying that the safrinha crop looks in great shape. They forecast the Ukraine corn crop at 24 MMT, down 2 MMT on last year. They see China's imports at 3 MMT and said that the EU might import 3 MMT more corn next season due to a reduced domestic crop. They predicted US corn prices to average $3.70 in Q4 of this year, rising to $4.00 in Q2 of next year - slightly below where the market currently trades. Commerzbank are more bullish on corn, predicting US prices at $5.50 in the final quarter of 2015. China said that it had imported 403.9 TMT of corn in May, almost all of which (381.8 TMT) came from Ukraine. Argentine farmers are said to be set to increase sorghum plantings this year by 23%, eyeing China's revitalised interest in the crop, and switching away from wheat plantings. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.67 1/2, up 7 1/2 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.81 1/4, up 7 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed with strong gains for a second session, doubtless helped by short-covering. Widespread reports of crop damage to winter wheat on the rain-sodden US Plains was certainly a supportive feature today. So too is the delayed harvest progress, particularly true in Kansas, Missouri, Indiana and Illinois. That is also holding back second crop soybean plantings in those states. Rabobank said that they have a neutral to slightly bullish price view on wheat prices following recent declines. Wheat prices will still face some harvest pressure, but should find a floor soon, they said. They predicted CBOT wheat prices to average $5.20 in Q4 of this year, and $5.30 by Q2 of 2016. The market is currently a little higher than this however. They added 1 MMT to their Russian wheat production estimate, taking that up to 56 MMT, saying that the country should export more than 20 MMT of wheat next season. The crop in Europe was reduced 1 MMT to 148 MMT on dryness in some areas, notably France and Germany. EU wheat exports could fall 10% to around 30 MMT in 2015/16, they said. US wheat exports may struggle to meet the current "optimistic" USDA forecast of 925 million bushels, they added. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology drew a parallel between current El Nino weather conditions and the record 1997/98 previous event. Australian wheat yields fell 12.4% that year. Dr Cordonnier said that Brazil could achieve a record 6.76 MMT wheat crop in 2015/16. Parana state is 82% planted and Rio Grande do Sul is around 33% done, he said. Near neighbours Paraguay are 100% sown, Uruguay is 85% done and Argentina 22% planted, and conditions in all four countries are currently favourable. That will likely reduce Brazil's import needs, and what they do buy will mostly come from their fellow Mercosur trade partners, rather than the US or elsewhere. China said that it imported 367.7 TMT of wheat in May, with Australia and Canada the largest suppliers. They also imported 726.2 TMT of barley, which came mostly from Australia and France. Reuters said that Indian millers had bought 500 TMT of Australian wheat so far this season, and might need to buy a further similar volume to compensate for a lower quality domestic crop this year. They said that new crop French or Russian offers were in line to take a large slice of this potential new business. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.27, up 20 1/4 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat is at $5.39 3/4, up 18 3/4 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat is at $5.81, up 16 3/4 cents.



23 June 2015 | Chicago Reports
22/06/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans and meal closed with strong gains on US planting concerns ahead of tonight's latest crop progress report from the USDA. That put US soybean plantings at only 90% complete, up just 3 points on the week and behind the 95% done 5-year average. That was also at the low end of expectations and means that as of Sunday night US farmers still had almost 8.5 million acres of soybeans left to sow using the USDA's March planting intentions estimate of 84.635 million acres. Kansas is only 73% done versus 91% normally at this time, and Missouri is barely past halfway through at 51% sown compared to the 5-year average of 88% complete. Emergence was placed at 84% versus 87% on average. Good to excellent ratings were cut 2 points to 65% versus 72% this time a year ago. Weekly export inspections came in at 178,094 MT and now need to average 155,876 MT to hit the USDA's target for the season. Cumulative season to date inspections are 47.6 MMT, around 112% of the total for the same week in 2013/14. Canadian canola futures hit a one year high, and prices in Europe are less than 2 euros away from being at a 14 month high. Canadian canola exports for the season to date are up 0.3% on a year ago at 7.6 MMT. Their soybean exports are up 5.9% at 2.4 MMT. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.89 1/2, up 18 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.59 1/4, up 19 1/2 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $333.60, up $10.50; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 32.92, up 37 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 5 to 6 cents higher. Short-covering ahead of tonight's crop progress report may have been a feature today. After the close the USDA cut US corn crop ratings two points to 71% good to excellent compared to 74% this time last year. Indiana, Kansas, Missouri and North Carolina have the worst conditions. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Iowa have the best. Weekly export inspections of over 1.1 MMT beat trade expectations and were a little above what's required to hit the USDA target for the season. China were said to have imported 400,000 MT of corn in May, but virtually none of it came from the US. Jan/May imports are now 1.78 MMT. Roach Ag Marketing estimated US 2015 corn plantings at 88.1 million acres compared with the USDA's March prediction of 89.199 million. The USDA are due to release their revised forecasts next Tuesday. Plantings in 2014 were 90.597 million acres. The EU Commission's MARS unit estimated corn yields in Europe this year at an average 7.22 MT/ha, unchanged on a month ago but 10.6% down versus 8.08 MT/ha in 2014. They raised their forecast for corn yields in Ukraine from 5.60 MT/ha a month ago to 6.13 MT/ha, where they said "all crops benefited from favourable thermal conditions while soil water contents are still high." APK Inform said that Ukraine seaports exported 575.8 TMT of grains in the past week, of which 91.5% (527.1 TMT) was corn. Russia's seaports exported 336.6 TMT of grains last week, but less than 12% of that (39.2 TMT) was corn. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.60, up 6 3/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.73 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed with solid gains on all three exchanges. The USDA reported the 2015 US winter wheat harvest had advanced 8 percentage points on the week to 19% complete, well below 31% done for the 5 year average. Missouri is only 12% done compared to 44% normally, Kansas is at 8% versus 33% on average, Indiana is at 5% done versus 20% normally and Illinois is just 3% complete against 29% typically at this time. Winter wheat crop ratings fell 2 points in the good to excellent category to 41%, although that's still better than only 30% a year ago. Spring wheat rated good to excellent was up one point on a week ago to 72%, the same as this time last year. Spring wheat at the headed stage was placed at 23% versus 15% on average at this time. Weekly export inspections of 290,300 MT were not a surprise, but not very impressive either. Canada said that it had exported 15.0 MMT of wheat (excluding durum) so far this season, a 3.3% increase on a year ago. Durum wheat exports are up 8% at 4.3 MMT and barley shipments are 5.5% higher at 1.3 MMT. APK Inform reported Russian seaports had shipped out 336.6 TMT of grains last week, up from 280.5 TMT the previous week, of which wheat accounted for 278.1 TMT of last week's total. The Russian Ag Ministry said that the country had exported 29.63 MMT of grains so far this season, up 18% from a year ago. Wheat shipments are 15% higher at 21 MMT, barley exports are up more than 100% at 5.23 MMT. The EU Commission's MARS unit cut their estimate for EU soft wheat yields this year to 5.85 MT/ha from 5.93 MT/ha a month ago and down 4.7% on 6.14 MT/ha a year ago. German yields are seen almost 10% lower than a year ago at 7.77 MT/ha, but those in France are forecast slightly higher at 7.41 MT/ha. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.01 1/4, up 12 3/4 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.12, up 8 3/4 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.53, up 10 cents.



20 June 2015 | Chicago Reports
19/06/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower on the day, but higher for the week. Informa today estimated the 2015 US soybean area at 86.7 million acres, down 400,000 acres from their previous forecast, but still more than 2 million more than the USDA projected back in March. The Argentine Ag Ministry added 1 MMT to their forecast for this year's soybean crop there, taking that now up to 61 MMT. That's also 200,000 MT above what the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said yesterday and 1.5 MMT above the current USDA figure. The trade seems to be anticipating a drop in US soybean crop condition ratings in Monday's USDA report due to excessive recent rainfall. The forecast for the weekend is a bit more friendly, but large areas of the soybean belt are set to still receive above average rains in the next 15 days. More eastern states, from the Dakota's all the way south down to Texas, should be a bit drier than normal though. Planting progress will also be under scrutiny on Monday, with 13% or 11 million acres still to be sown as of last Sunday night. I guess that we might see progress up from 87% done to around 92% complete there. The latest Commitment of Traders report shows managed money reducing their net short position in beans for the week through to Tuesday night. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.71 1/2, down 6 1/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.39 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $323.10, down $3.50; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 32.55, up 30 points. On a front month basis beans gained 31 1/2 cents for the week, with meal $5.70 higher and oil down 59 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 4-5 cents lower. Informa estimated US corn plantings at 88.78 million acres, which was up a little from 88.74 million in May, but below the USDA's 89.2 million forecast from March. The USDA revise their acreage numbers at the end of the month. "Rumours are rampant that the latest swath of moisture won’t be taken into consideration in the June 30 acreage report and therefore be missing potentially the greatest impact of the crop year," said Benson Quinn. The acreage survey was conducted Jun 1-10. The trade is thinking that the USDA might cut US corn ratings by around 2-3% in the good to excellent category on Monday. The latest Commitment of Traders Report shows managed money adding almost 30,000 contracts to their net short position in corn for the week through to Tuesday night. That's an increase of around 25% in a week. The trade seems largely fairly optimistic that US corn yields will ultimately turn out pretty well this year, despite the well advertised heavy moisture totals. Rain makes grain, as the old saying goes. FranceAgriMer reported that 85% of the French corn crop was in good to very good condition, up one point from a week ago. They said that 91% of the crop had 6-8 visible leaves versus 83% a week earlier and 84% a year ago. Indonesia were said to have bought around 50,000 MT of optional origin corn for August-October shipment in a tender at $190/tonne C&F. Ukraine said that it had now exported a record 33.73 MMT of grains this season, including 18.27 MMT of corn. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.53 1/4, down 4 3/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.68 3/4, down 4 1/2 cents. For the week Jul 15 corn was 1/4 cent higher and Dec 15 was 3/4 of a cent lower.

Wheat: The wheat market closed with small gains on the day, but still with some sizable losses for the week. I guess we could call today's action consolidation from recent losses therefore. Informa estimated the US all wheat acreage at 56.1 million, up from their May estimate of 55.9 million and above the USDA intentions number of 55.3 million. Wheat growers on the Plains will welcome the drier than normal forecast that's on the cards for most across the next 14 days. Plains Grains in Oklahoma estimate that the winter wheat harvest in Texas and Oklahoma is 49% and 41% complete respectively. The USDA said 47% and 38% done as of Sunday night, and will update us on that on Monday. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada estimated the wheat crop there at 29.7 MMT this year, down from a previous forecast of 30.1 MMT. Ukraine said that it's 2014/15 wheat exports now stand at 10.75 MMT, with a further 4.46 MMT of barley having also been shipped out. The Russian Deputy Prime Minister said that the government plan no changes to the new "floating" export tax on wheat which comes into force on Jul 1. He did add however that if the financial markets stabilise then this might change at some point later in the season. FranceAgriMer trimmed 2 percentage points off winter wheat crop conditions there, although things are still better than they were a year ago. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.88 1/2, up 1/2 cent; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.03 1/4, up 5 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.43, up 3 1/4 cents. For the week, Chicago wheat lost 15 1/4 cents, with Kansas down 14 3/4 cents and the Minneapolis market losing 18 1/4 cents.



19 June 2015 | Chicago Reports
18/06/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher for a third session in a row. Weekly export sales of 132,900 MT on old crop and 532,000 MT on new crop were supportive. Exports of 353,900 MT were up 45 percent from the previous week and 38 percent above the prior 4-week average, adding further to the friendly tone. So too did dollar weakness today. Cumulative season to date exports are now 47.22 MMT, with a further 3.18 MMT worth of outstanding sales taking total old crop commitments to 50.4 MMT. The USDA currently has 2014/15 exports at 48.3 MMT, so current net commitments are 104% of that forecast. Continued wetness associated with Tropical Depression Bill leans supportive for beans. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment found 20 bullish, 6 bearish and 3 neutral on bean prices. That's a marked change on a week ago when the results were 6 bullish, 10 bearish and 5 neutral. MDA CropCast estimated the world soybean crop in 2015/16 at 302.7 MMT, unchanged from a week ago and 1.2% lower than the current season. They made no adjustment to their US soybean production estimate, pegging this year's crop at 3.823 billion bushels, down 3.6% on last year's record. They see US yields this year averaging 45.8 bu/acre versus 48.1 bu/acre a year ago. Informa are due to release revised US acreage estimates tomorrow. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that the Argentine soybean harvest advanced 1.9 percentage points this week to 98.5% complete. That means that Argentine growers have now already brought in 60.4 MMT of their projected record 60.8 MMT crop this year. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.77 3/4, up 8 3/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.42 1/4, up 2 1/2 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $326.60, up $2.90; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 32.25, down 60 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around a cent or two easier. For now the trade seems to think that the excessive wetness being seen in the US is more of a potential problem for beans than corn. Weekly export sales of 627,200 MT for delivery in 2014/15 were up 27 percent from the previous week and 3 percent above the prior 4-week average, and ahead of expectations for old crop sales of around only 200,000 MT. New crop sales of 200,400 MT were a bit disappointing however. Exports of over 1 MMT were respectable. The Argentine corn harvest is making only slow progress. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimates it at 43.1% complete, up only 2.5 percentage points on the week. They held steady with their production estimate at 25 MMT, but said that the arrival of the first frosts will reduce grain moisture and speed up the harvest of later sown corn. Many of these later crops have yield potential above average, so final production could end up higher than the current 25 MMT forecast, they said. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment found 14 bullish, 8 bearish and 7 neutral on corn prices. A week ago it was 7 bullish, 10 bearish and 4 neutral. MDA CropCast trimmed 0.25 MMT off their world 2015/16 corn production forecast, pegging the global crop at 960.8 MMT. They were unchanged on US production at 13.8 billion bushels, down 4% on last year's record. They see US yields this year averaging 167.4 bu/acre, down 3.2% on 172.7 bu/acre a year ago. Informa are due out with their latest US acreage estimates tomorrow, they had corn plantings at 88.7 million acres versus the USDA’s 89.2 million last time. The USDA themselves are out at the end of the month. The US National Climatic Data Centre said that El Nino means that the water in the Pacific is about 3.6 degrees above normal in the eastern end of the basin, and that there is an 80 percent chance that it will persist through the first three months of 2016. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.58, down 1 1/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.73 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower on all three exchanges. Weekly export sales of 315,700 MT were in line with fairly modest trade expectations. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reduced their forecast for Argentine wheat plantings from 4.1 million ha to 3.9 million, and said that sowing of that is now 34.7% complete. Dryness is an issue in some parts of the Argentine wheat belt, and growers are also falling out of love with the crop due to low prices and fickle on-off export quotas. An area of 3.9 million ha would be a drop of 11.4% on plantings of 4.4 million a year ago. Some analysts are suggesting that even that is too high and an area as low as 3.5 million ha could be on the cards this year. Rain is in the forecast for some of the drier areas of eastern Australia. MDA CropCast cut 1.13 MMT off their world wheat production estimate, taking that down to 710.7 MMT, a 1.2% decline on a year ago. They took 0.95 MMT off their European estimate, reduced the size of the US crop by 0.43 MMT, added 0.25 MMT to Ukraine and were unchanged on Russia. Japan bought 113 TMT of US, Canadian and Australian wheat in their regular weekly tender. Heavy rains on the US Plains continue to frustrate winter wheat harvest attempts and could be driving down quality and causing disease issues. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment found 14 bullish, 4 bearish and 11 neutral on wheat prices. A week ago it was 6 bullish, 9 bearish and 5 neutral. Russia said that they'd agreed to sell 160,000 MT of wheat to Nicaragua. Russia's Deputy Prime Minister, Arkady Dvorkovich, said that the country could export 25-27 MMT of grains in 2015/16 if the current government target for production of 100 MMT is met, however unlikely that might be. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.88, down 3 1/4 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.98 1/4, down 7 1/4 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.39 3/4, down 8 cents.




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