Chicago Reports
27-11-2014 16:19 PM | Chicago Reports
26/11/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans broke the trend of generally closing the pre-Thanksgiving Day session higher, by ending around 2-4 cents lower on the day, despite the USDA reporting the sale of 120 TMT of US soybeans to China for 2014/15 delivery. Nearby meal closed sharply higher, and is back up above $400/tonne and now sits at a 5-month high ahead of Friday's first notice day. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that farmers there had only so far committed 70% of their 2013/14 soybean crop and have less than 3% of their 2014/15 production sold. The USDA's attache in Brazil revised their estimate for the 2014/15 soybean crop there to 92 MMT, which is 2 MMT below the official USDA figure. This would still be a record volume, and is up 6% on last year. The reduction is based on a lower national yield than previously expected. Brazilian soybean exports in 2014/15 are seen unchanged from this season, and the attache's previous estimate at 47 MMT. Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.47, down 4 cents; Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.52 3/4, down 3 1/2 cents; Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $401.60, up $11.00; Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at 33.48, up 6 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 4 cents higher, helped by the US Energy Dept announcing record weekly ethanol production of 982,000 barrels/day last week, a 12,000 bpd rise on the previous week. "The technical structure of the market hints at higher prices before the corn market is ready to relax," said Benson Quinn Commodities. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that local farmers had sold 87% of their 2013/14 corn crop and 9% of their 2014/15 crop. Ukraine said that it's 2014 corn harvest was now 95% done at 26.17 MMT. Russia said that it's corn harvest was 93% done at 11.1 MMT. South Korea's MFG bought 126,000 MT of optional origin corn for March shipment. China has launched it's 2014/15 state stockpiling effort. They are said to be offering to pay the equivalent of around $9.35/bushel, so they should find plenty of willing sellers! Some analysts say that they will buy around 40 MMT of home grown corn between now and the end of April. Fund money was estimated as being a net buyer of around 3-4,000 contracts on the day. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.78 1/4, up 4 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.91 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed higher across the board, with the best gains in Chicago. EU wheat prices rose to 4 month highs, supporting US levels. South Korea's Samyang bought 31,000 MT of US wheat for April-May shipment. Pakistan cancelled a tender for 20,000 MT of wheat. Bangladesh tendered for 50,000 MT of wheat of optional origin for January shipment. Ethiopia tendered for 70,000 MT of optional origin wheat. Russia said that it's 2014 grain harvest had limped to 98% done at 110.2 MMT. That total includes 62.3 MMT of wheat. Siberia is 95% done and the Urals region is now 97% complete, they said. Some question the accuracy of this data. One report I read suggested that 30% of Siberian crops are under 0.5m of snow. Ukraine said that its grain harvest was 98% done at 61.7 MMT. Kazakhstan said that its grain harvest was 96.5% done at 18.3 MMT in bunker weight. They expect a clean weight final harvest of 17.6 MMT, and exports of 7 MMT in 2014/15, the Ag Ministry said. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that local farmers had sold 79% of their 2013/14 wheat crop, along with 24% of their 2014/15 production. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.62, up 10 1/2 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.21, up 3 3/4 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.98 1/2, up 7 3/4 cents.

26-11-2014 10:09 AM | Chicago Reports
25/11/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans and meal finished with strong gains in "Turnaround Tuesday" style trade. The Congressional Budget Office estimated US soybean plantings at 81 million acres in 2015, which is under the 84.8 million planted this year and also well below current trade forecasts of around 87-88 million. Chinese industry analysts forecast the country's December soybean imports at a large 7.3 MMT versus a previous estimate of 7.0 MMT. They also increased their outlook for January to 6.9 MMT versus 5.8 MMT previously. South Korea's MFG bought 53,000 MT of what was said to be South American origin soymeal for Feb/March shipment. Soybean planting in South America has largely caught up with the normal pace after a slow start. AgRural said that as of Friday Brazilian farmers have planted 76% of their 2014/15 crop, up from 63% a week ago and versus 79% a year ago. Safras e Mercado said that as of Friday Mato Grosso soybean planting was now 95% complete. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that soybean planting there was 36% complete as of Friday versus 44% done a year ago. Oil World estimated global soybean production at a record 309.1 MMT in 2014/15, up from a previous estimate of 307.8 MMT and up sharply compared to the 2013/14 crop of 284.8 MMT even if somewhat lower than the USDA's 312 MMT forecast. Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.51, up 17 1/4 cents; Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.56 1/4, up 16 1/2 cents; Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $390.60, up $15.70; Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at 33.42, up 22 points.

Corn: The corn market reversed yesterday's losses, closing around 6-7 cents higher. "In addition to short covering, it felt like there was some new money coming into the corn market today," said Benson Quinn Commodities. The Congressional Budget Office suggested 2015 US corn plantings at 90 million acres versus 91.6 million this year. South Korea's NOFI bought 93,000 MT of US corn for February shipment. Russia said that it's 2014 corn harvest was 92.2% complete at 11.0 MMT versus 9.6 MMT this time a year ago. Ag Canada estimated corn production there this year at 11.4 MMT, down from last year's bumper 14.2 MMT. They see 2014/15 corn exports at 1.0 MMT versus 1.9 MMT last season. Argentina said that they'd exported 1.58 MMT of corn in September, a rise of 49% compared with a year previously. Reuters reported yields of a new variety of Chinese "super corn" called Denghai 618 had come in at a record 1,335.8 kg/mu in a 10 mu test plot, and 1,151.6 kg/mu in a 100 mu field. The former figure is the equivalent of around 20 MT/ha, and the latter more than 17 MT/ha. These are bin-busting yields if they could be replicated on a larger scale. The USDA currently has the average Chinese corn yield this year at less than 6 MT/ha. Argentina's Ag Mininstry said that as of Friday Argentine farmers have planted 42% of their 2014/15 corn crop versus 44% a year ago. The US Energy Dept will report on weekly ethanol production tomorrow. Last week's output of 970,000 barrels/day was the second highest on record. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.74 1/4, up 6 3/4 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.87 1/4, up 7 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed with decent gains, helped by a weaker US dollar. Russian sellers continue to largely stand away from the market despite a large crop there this year. The Russian Ag Ministry said that the country had harvested over 110 MMT of grain so far this season, including 62.2 MMT of wheat. Concerns over the state of newly planted Russian winter gains, mostly wheat, abound. The Russian Ag Ministry said that winter grain planting in the Stavropol region was complete on 1.9 million hectares, and that 93.6% of those crops had emerged. Of that 41.3% was said to be in good condition, 51.7% fair and 7% poor. A year ago emergence was 92.2%, with 39.1% of the crop rated good, 55.8% fair and 4.5% poor. Ukraine said that they'd exported 14.5 MMT of grains so far this season, of which 7.3 MMT was wheat, 3.7 MMT corn and 3.3 MMT barley. Argentina said that they'd exported 126 TMT of wheat in September versus only 10 TMT a year previously. Dec 13/Sep 14 wheat exports are 1.534 MMT, around half of what they were a year ago. The country is currently mid-harvest, with this year's crop expected to come in around 30% higher at 12 MMT. Reuters reported a Chinese wheat variety called "Jimai 22" had attained a yield of 802 kg/mu in trials, the equivalent of around 12 MT/ha compared to the USDA's current estimate for a national Chinese yield of 5.23 MT/ha. Ag Canada estimated this year's Canadian wheat crop (excluding durum) at 27.5 MMT, which is 10 MMT below last year's record output. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.51 1/2, up 9 1/4 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.17 1/4, up 13 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.90 3/4, up 11 3/4 cents.

25-11-2014 09:19 AM | Chicago Reports
24/11/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans and meal drifted lower, despite strong weekly export inspections (again) for the former of 2.784 MMT and the USDA announcing 235 TMT of US beans sold to China for 2014/15 shipment under the daily reporting system, along with 174 TMT of meal to Thailand. "South American weather was favourable over the weekend with Brazil and Argentina both seeing rains as soybean planting is now seen on normal pace. US weather is mostly a non-factor with strengthening El Nino expected to push milder winter temps into the Midwest, which should keep grain, logistics, rail and trucks moving unimpeded for the most part," said Benson Quinn Commodities. After the close, the USDA reported the 2014 US soybean harvest at 97% complete, up 3 points on a week ago and 1 point behind the 5-year average. Of the major producing states Ohio (95% done versus 99% normally) and Indiana (96% complete versus 99% normally) are the only states that are a little behind schedule. Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.33 3/4, down 5 1/4 cents; Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.39 3/4, down 6 1/4 cents; Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $374.90, down $3.50; Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at 33.20, up 51 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 5 cents lower. "While not a surprise, the fact that the COT (report) confirms funds added length in the corn market during the week ending Nov 18th is a negative input. I expect the fund community has and will continue to shift focus towards cleaning up their books ahead of year end," said Benson Quinn's Brian Henry. They were net sellers of around 4,000 lots on the day today. It's possible that we might see further liquidation/book squaring ahead of Thursday's Thanksgiving holiday and also Friday's month end. Trade on Friday is likely to be thin as many traders will make a long weekend of it. Weekly export inspections of 529,801 MT were no better than neutral. At least that was up versus 409,212 MT last week, although down from 769,223 MT a year ago. There were no large US corn sales announced today, but the USDA did report 116,000 MT of grain sorghum sold to unknown for 2014/15 shipment under the daily reporting system. After the close the USDA reported that the 2014 US corn harvest is now 94% complete, up 5 points versus a week ago and now 2 points ahead of the 5-year average. None of the major producing states are notable laggards. Michigan at 69% complete versus 85% normally is the only one that stands out, although traditionally the state only produces around 2% of the national crop. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.67 1/2, down 5 1/4 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.80 1/4, down 5 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed mostly lower. Weekly export inspections of 447,353 MT were better than last week's miserly 139,351 MT, although they could hardly have been worse. Saudi Arabia bought 345 TMT of hard wheat for Feb/Mar shipment over the weekend with US material an acceptable, if unlikely, origin. "Germany was the odds on favourite to do the bulk of the business," suggested Benson Quinn. They are almost certainly correct in that assumption. The Germans are also shipping large volumes of wheat to Iran. France also continues to do well on the export front, they are currently loading their largest feed wheat shipment in 26 years bound for South Korea, according to Reuters. Rosstat said that Russia had exported 20.57 MMT of grains Jan/Sep, a 78.4% rise compared with a year previously. They said that the majority of that was wheat (15.59 MMT), a 79.2% jump compared to 12 months previously. The USDA reported US winter wheat emergence at 92% versus 87% a week ago and 89% for the 5-year average. Winter wheat crop conditions however fell 2 points from a week ago in the good to excellent category to 58% versus 62% a year ago. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.42 1/4, down 5 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.04 1/4, up 1/4 cent; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.79, down 4 1/4 cents.

21-11-2014 09:19 AM | Chicago Reports
20/11/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans finished higher in a mixed news session. Whilst weekly exports of more than 3 MMT were a marketing year high, fresh sales of less than 500 TMT were a marketing year low. The USDA did however also announce 140,000 MT of US beans sold to unknown for 2014/15 delivery under the daily reporting system, having confirmed a similar sale of 125,000 MT yesterday. Meal export sales of 265,700 MT were better than expected. Thailand bought 260,000 MT of South American soymeal. South Korea bought a cargo of Brazilian meal for Jan shipment. Dr Cordonnier estimated the 2014/15 Brazilian soybean crop at 92.0 MMT, unchanged from his previous estimate. He was also unchanged on the Argentina bean crop at 55.0 MMT. The Argentine Ag Ministry estimated the 2014/15 soybean planted area at 20.1 million ha versus a previous estimate of 20.3 million. Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.20 1/2, up 15 3/4 cents; Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.28, up 16 cents; Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $370.80, up $0.40; Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.67, up 16 points.

Corn: The corn market reversed all of yesterday's losses and then some. Weekly export inspections of 908,700 MT were better than what the market was looking for (400-700,000 MT). Actual shipments though, as alluded to on Monday, of only 386,900 MT were a marketing-year low. Cumulative sales are 46% of the USDA's target for the season versus the average pace of 49%. Dr Cordonnier estimated the 2014/15 Brazilian corn crop at 72.0 MMT, and the Argentine crop at 21 MMT, both are unchanged from his previous estimates. Israel bought 147,000 MT of optional origin corn (most likely to be of Black Sea origin) for Jan-April shipment. The Ukraine corn harvest is wrapping up. APK Inform estimated the country's 2014/15 corn exports at 18.1 MMT versus the current USDA estimate of 16.5 MMT. The Russian corn harvest is now 92% complete at 11 MMT. MDA CropCast increased their forecast for the EU-28 corn crop by 0.5 MMT from a week ago to 66.5 MMT, a 12.5% rise compared to a year ago, although not as high as many other trade estimates - some of which are 70 MMT or more. Japan’s use of corn in animal feed in September was 45%, the same as in August but up versus 41.8% a year previously. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.73 1/4, up 10 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.86 1/4, up 10 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market, which had been lower to mixed in overnight trade, closed strongly higher at the finish once the US daytime markets sprung into life. It's hard to put a definite reason behind today's rally. "It’s hard to argue the market was oversold, but it had become pretty easy for the short position holder," said Benson Quinn Commodities. Weekly export sales of 361,700 MT didn't startle anybody that's for sure. Meanwhile actual shipments of 178,400 MT were down 43 percent from the previous week and 39 percent below the prior 4-week average. Egypt's GASC bought just the one cargo of French wheat for late December shipment in their tender. Saudi Arabia released a tender for 330,000 MT of optional origin hard wheat for Feb-March shipment. Japan bought 123,192 MT of a mixture of US, Canadian and Australian wheat in a routine Thursday tender. Taiwan bought 82,050 MT of US milling wheat for Jan-Feb shipment in a tender. Nothing much out of the ordinary there. MDA CropCast raised their forecast for next year's Canadian wheat crop by 0.9 MMT to 28.6 MMT, a 3.25% increase compared to this year. Russia said that they'd now harvested 110 MMT of grain off 97.2% of the planned area. Wheat accounts for 62.2 MMT of that total, also off 97.2% of the intended area. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.47 1/4, up 9 1/2 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.02 1/4, up 16 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.84 1/2, up 13 cents.

20-11-2014 08:49 AM | Chicago Reports
19/11/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans and meal fell hard, closing more or less at session lows. "Market sentiment seems to be shifting to one of risk reduction with December first notice day for meal and soyoil a week from Friday and market getting in the silly season of thin holiday markets and year-end positioning," said Benson Quinn Commodities. We have month end coming up, and next Thursday is Thanksgiving so the US markets will be shut, and Friday will be a bit of a write off too, so any book squaring that wants doing really needs completing prior to that. Demand for US beans still remains strong though. The USDA announced 125,000 MT of US beans sold to unknown for 2014/15 shipment. Monday's weekly export inspections were at record levels, and tomorrow brings the usual weekly export sales report. Various trade estimates are that for beans these will be back below 1 MMT for the first time in a month following last week's rally. Personally I'm not so sure that they will. Lanworth estimated US 2014 soybean yields at 47.8 bu/acre, unchanged from their previous estimate and an all time high. There's good rains in the forecast for most of Brazil in the week ahead. These will certainly be welcome in the top soybean producing state of Mato Grosso, although maybe less so in the already wet number 2 and 3 leading soybean states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. Ukraine said that they'd brought in a record 3.8 MMT of soybeans this year, much of that will likely be heading to Europe. Bean futures prices look like they are shaping up to test the $10/bu level again. With cash prices now back into single figures, producer selling has eased up by all accounts. Meal suddenly looks to be the weakest link, with the basis dropping sharply as more sales are switched to South American origin. Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.04 3/4, down 18 1/2 cents; Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.12, down 19 cents; Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $370.40, down $7.60; Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.51, down 14 points.

Corn: The corn market closed with near double digit losses, not helped by wheat throwing in the towel. Monday's weekly export inspections were fairly poor, and tomorrow's weekly export sales are only expected to be relatively modest too - in the region of 400-700 TMT. "While I feel technicals have had as much influence as fundamentals on the recent break, if there’s a supportive fundamental feature in the corn market it isn’t apparent. The corn is still standing in the fields argument isn’t getting any traction and rightly so. The harvested acreage estimates are too high argument has some supporters but hasn’t gained much traction either," said Benson Quinn. Lanworth estimated this year's US corn yield at 174.7 bu/acre, down from a previous estimate of 175.7 bu/acre, but still easily a record. The Ukraine Economy Ministry raised their forecast for this year's corn crop in the country to 28 MMT, forecasting exports at 20.2 MMT versus a previous estimate of 17.9 MMT. Abundant summer rainfall across much of Europe means that the EU-28 corn crop is set to reach a record volume of 70 MMT or more this year. The rains also mean that there are some quality issues around however. South Korea's Kocopia bought 55,000 MT of optional origin corn for March shipment. South Korea's KFA bought 50,000 MT of optional origin corn for Jan-March shipment. South Korea's MFG bought 50,000 MT of optional origin corn for Feb-March shipment. Weekly ethanol production data from the U Energy Dept had output at 970,000 barrels/day last week, the biggest week since June and a decent 36,000 bpd rise on the previous week. ADM are said to be suing Syngenta over the rejection of US GMO corn by China over the last 12 months. The lawsuit alleges that Syngenta commercialised the MIR162 corn variety "without creating an effective stewardship program to ensure the grain would not be shipped to markets that have not approved it," according to a report on Reuters. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.63 1/4, down 8 3/4 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.76, down 9 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower across the three exchanges, with Chicago wheat coming off the worst. It hasn't been a good week for wheat so far. Monday's export inspections were extremely poor, and news that French feed wheat is now following UK origin material across the Atlantic and into the US east coast is also bearish. The world is buying/tendering for wheat, it's just that the US offer isn't picking up much of the business. The Philippines are shopping for 116,400 MT of feed wheat from Australia, the EU or the Black Sea region for March-May shipment. Jordan bought 100,000 MT of optional origin hard wheat for April/May shipment. Tunisia bought 100,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat (most likely French origin) for Dec-Jan shipment. They also booked 50,000 MT of optional origin feed barley (also most likely to be of French origin) for Dec–Jan shipment. Qatar bought 20,000 MT of Australian origin milling wheat for January shipment. There are also reports that China has been buying feed and malting barley from Australia, the Black Sea region and Europe over the past couple of weeks. Dr Cordonnier reported that the Brazilian wheat crop in the state of Rio Grande do Sul is "a disaster" - being both low in yield and quality following a persistently wet growing season. Harvesting in the state is now 75% complete, and losses in some areas are in the 30-60% region, with yields only averaging 1.2-1.5 MT/ha, he says. That may provide something of an opportunity for US wheat, although Argentina's crop is looking like being much larger this year than the previous two. They are also able to export wheat to Brazil under preferential terms, being inside the Mercosur trade bloc, so they should be the main beneficiary of increased Brazilian imports. The current sharp freeze hitting the US should not be too much of a problem for winter wheat on the Great Plains, but could be more of an issue for Midwest soft red wheat, where planting was seriously delayed, cutting short the "hardening" period, say Martell Crop Projections. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.37 3/4, down 11 1/4 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.86 1/4, down 7 1/4 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.71 1/2, down 7 cents.

19-11-2014 10:59 AM | Chicago Reports
18/11/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower, erasing most of yesterday's gains in "turnaround Tuesday" style. Talk continues of US meal sales being switched to South American origin material. Abiove estimated Brazil’s 2014/15 bean crop at a record 91.0 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate. JP Morgan are suggesting that the USDA may have overstated the US soybean area for this year's harvest by around 1.4 million acres. "This could be good explanation for why this harvest of record corn and soybean crop production has not severely stressed grain elevator storage and pipelines have been much tighter than market had anticipated given the astonishing yield reports the market has seen," suggested Benson Quinn Commodities.The USDA announced 100,647 MT of US beans sold to unknown for 2014/15 shipment. Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.23 1/4, down 13 cents; Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.31, down 13 cents; Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $378.00, down $9.10; Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.65, up 20 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 5-6 cents lower. "Corn futures were lower overnight and eventually traded through the 10 day moving average level of 374 that appeared to be defended by the institutional trader early in the session," said Benson Quinn. US weather conditions have turned cold as the remainder of the 2014 US corn harvest concludes. "Midwest temperatures last week plummeted to 30.3 F, the daily average of highs and lows. This was the coldest week in the major corn states since March 8 and 15 degrees colder than the previous week. Harvesting is moving rapidly toward completion, the soybean harvest now 94% complete and corn 89% finished. Sub-freezing temperatures have hardened fields promoting very rapid progress," said Martell Crop Projections. The Russian 2014 corn harvest is more than 91% done at 10.9 MMT. The Ukraine corn harvest is also nearing completion and currently stands at 25.2 MMT. JP Morgan estimate that the USDA have overstated this year's US corn planted area by around 2.1 million acres. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.72, down 5 1/2 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.85, down 5 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market drifted lower, reflecting that US prices have maybe got a little ahead of themselves. Certainly yesterday's poor weekly export inspections would indicate that. So too would news of French feed wheat heading to the US this week. Tunisia, Qatar and Jordan are all tendering for wheat, but US origin material is unlikely to feature in any of it. Iraq said that ISIS has stolen more than 1 MMT of grain in the north of the country and taken it to neighbouring Syria. The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that the country has exported 14.0 MMT of grains so far this season. The head of the Ukraine Grain Association said that the country had doubled it's grain output in the last 10 years, and if it could match US corn yields and those of France for wheat and barley then they could further double their production capacity and produce 120 MMT of grains annually. Russia said that its 2014 grain harvest now stands at 109.9 MMT, including 62.2 MMT of wheat off 97% of the planned area. Winter grains have now been planted on 16.8 million hectares in Russia, exceeding the Ag Ministry's forecast. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.49, down 2 3/4 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.93 1/2, down 3 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.78 1/2, down 5 cents.

19-11-2014 09:29 AM | Chicago Reports
18/11/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower, erasing most of yesterday's gains in "turnaround Tuesday" style. Talk continues of US meal sales being switched to South American origin material. Abiove estimated Brazil’s 2014/15 bean crop at a record 91.0 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate. JP Morgan are suggesting that the USDA may have overstated the US soybean area for this year's harvest by around 1.4 million acres. "This could be good explanation for why this harvest of record corn and soybean crop production has not severely stressed grain elevator storage and pipelines have been much tighter than market had anticipated given the astonishing yield reports the market has seen," suggested Benson Quinn Commodities.The USDA announced 100,647 MT of US beans sold to unknown for 2014/15 shipment. Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.23 1/4, down 13 cents; Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.31, down 13 cents; Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $378.00, down $9.10; Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.65, up 20 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 5-6 cents lower. "Corn futures were lower overnight and eventually traded through the 10 day moving average level of 374 that appeared to be defended by the institutional trader early in the session," said Benson Quinn. US weather conditions have turned cold as the remainder of the 2014 US corn harvest concludes. "Midwest temperatures last week plummeted to 30.3 F, the daily average of highs and lows. This was the coldest week in the major corn states since March 8 and 15 degrees colder than the previous week. Harvesting is moving rapidly toward completion, the soybean harvest now 94% complete and corn 89% finished. Sub-freezing temperatures have hardened fields promoting very rapid progress," said Martell Crop Projections. The Russian 2014 corn harvest is more than 91% done at 10.9 MMT. The Ukraine corn harvest is also nearing completion and currently stands at 25.2 MMT. JP Morgan estimate that the USDA have overstated this year's US corn planted area by around 2.1 million acres. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.72, down 5 1/2 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.85, down 5 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market drifted lower, reflecting that US prices have maybe got a little ahead of themselves. Certainly yesterday's poor weekly export inspections would indicate that. So too would news of French feed wheat heading to the US this week. Tunisia, Qatar and Jordan are all tendering for wheat, but US origin material is unlikely to feature in any of it. Iraq said that ISIS has stolen more than 1 MMT of grain in the north of the country and taken it to neighbouring Syria. The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that the country has exported 14.0 MMT of grains so far this season. The head of the Ukraine Grain Association said that the country had doubled it's grain output in the last 10 years, and if it could match US corn yields and those of France for wheat and barley then they could further double their production capacity and produce 120 MMT of grains annually. Russia said that its 2014 grain harvest now stands at 109.9 MMT, including 62.2 MMT of wheat off 97% of the planned area. Winter grains have now been planted on 16.8 million hectares in Russia, exceeding the Ag Ministry's forecast. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.49, down 2 3/4 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.93 1/2, down 3 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.78 1/2, down 5 cents.

18-11-2014 09:39 AM | Chicago Reports
17/11/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans regained some of Friday's losses, helped by a larger than expected October NOPA crush number and enormous weekly export inspections. The NOPA crush came in at 157.96 million bushels, up almost a million compared to October 2013, with the trade expecting a drop on 12 months ago. Weekly export inspections were a gigantic 3.113 MMT compared to 2.389 MMT a year ago, and a record volume for any week ever. The USDA reported that 94% of the US soybean crop had now been harvested, up 4 points versus last week and 2 points behind the 5-year average. In Brazil, the weather remains generally uncooperative. "Rainfall last week was disappointing in Brazil’s main soybean growing areas, however, the forecast is hopeful for strong showers in the upcoming week. Over the past 7 days, less than 20 mm of rainfall has developed in Mato Grosso’s center-east whereas the average weekly rainfall would be near 50 mm. South Brazil soybean states Parana and Rio Grande do Sul were also dry last week, receiving less than 20 mm of rainfall against 39 mm on average," said Martell Crop Projections. Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.36 1/4, up 14 3/4 cents; Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.44, up 15 1/4 cents; Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $387.10, up $7.20; Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.45, up 25 points.

Corn: The corn market ended around 3-4 cents lower. Weekly export inspections were on the light side at only 401,116 MT last week versus 528,042 the previous week. Very strong global demand for nearby soybeans may have something to do with this, as US berths can only load a finite volume of grains/oilseeds in a week. "From a technical standpoint, upward momentum is waning with help from lower trade the last couple of sessions. However, the market has only managed a 15 cent correction from last week’s highs and has held potential support at the 10 day moving average of 374," said Benson Quinn Commodities. The USDA reported that the 2014 US corn harvest was now 89% complete, up from 80% a week ago, and not a bad effort given the weather conditions. The new total is actually now one point ahead of the prior 5-year average! Russia's corn harvest is now 90% complete at 10.2 MMT. Corn accounted for 70% of Ukraine's grain exports last week, up from 65% the previous week and 53% the week before that. China are said to have bought over 1 MMT of Ukraine corn since the beginning of October. The Chinese are also said to have recently purchased Bulgarian corn for the first time. They appear to be no closer to resolving the MIR 162 dispute with the US than they were a year ago when they started rejecting US supplies. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.77 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.90 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed around 6-9 cents lower. Weekly export inspections were a bearish influence. These came in at a miserly 139,351 MT, down from 302,622 MT last week and 493,020 MT a year ago. Again, this may have been due to the US majoring on beans. "Given the number of soybean inspections, I am not sure where they find the capacity to load wheat," said Benson Quinn. US winter wheat planting for the 2015 harvest only advanced 2 points to 95% complete this past week, said the USDA. That's down compared to the 5-year average of 95% and versus 99% done a year ago. Illinois is only 90% complete compared to 100% done a year ago and 95% for the 5-year average. Emergence is at 87% versus 83% last week, 88% last year and 84% on average. Crop conditions were unchanged on a week ago at 60% good to excellent, which is 3 points behind this time last year. The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that the country had increased winter wheat plantings this year by almost 5% to 6.4 million hectares. They said that 89% of winter grains were emerged, and 83% of that was in good to satisfactory condition. However weather forecasters said last week that "at least 30 percent of Ukrainian winter grain crops, mostly late-sown, were under threat and may be damaged by frosts," according to a report on Reuters. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.51 3/4, down 8 3/4 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.96 1/2, down 9 cents; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.83 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents.

17-11-2014 08:39 AM | Chicago Reports
14/11/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans and meal finished lower on the day, and lower for the week, Nov 14 beans went off the board the best part of 30 cents down. "It seems that at least for the moment the tight pipeline has been filled with export basis values sharply lower and rumours that southeastern feeds have covered needs with cheaper South American soymeal," said Benson Quinn. Weekly export sales for beans came in at just over 1 MMT, which was in line with expectation. Informa trimmed slightly their projected 2015 US soybean planted area estimate to a record 88.35 million acres. The USDA's October 2014 acreage estimate was 84.184 million acres, so this would represent a 5% increase on this year. The USDA announced 180,000 MT of US beans sold to China for 2014/15 shipment. These had previously been reported as sales to "unknown" destinations. Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $10.21, down 29 1/2 cents; Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.22 1/2, down 31 cents; Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $379.90, down $13.60; Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.20, up 13 points. For the week front month beans were 19 1/4 cents lower, with meal losing $10.50 and oil falling 20 points.

Corn: The corn market closed lower on the day, but higher for the week. Profit-taking and increased producer selling after a decent attempt at rallying this week may also have been features heading into the weekend. Weekly export sales of 505 TMT were towards the low end of expectations. "Sales have reached 44.4% of the USDA export estimate, which compares to a 5-year average of 49.3%. Sales need to average 579,000 MT a week to meet the current estimate," noted Benson Quinn. Rabobank explained the recent strength in corn by suggesting that cash corn supplies available to the market as of Nov 1 were down 18% from year ago. This was due to the slow harvest pace and the lack of farmer selling for harvest delivery, they said. Informa estimated US 2015 corn plantings at 88.3 million acres, down from the 88.77 million forecast previously and the USDA's figure for this season of 90.855 million. The trade will be keen to see how much corn got harvested in the US this week in Monday's crop progress report from the USDA. As of last week, 20% of the crop remained unharvested and this week's weather hasn't been friendly. Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.81 3/4, down 4 1/2 cents; Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.94 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents. For the week Dec 14 corn was still 14 1/4 cents higher.

Wheat: The wheat market closed higher on the day, and posted decent gains for the week. Weekly export sales of just under 418 TMT were relatively uninspiring, but in line with expectations. "There doesn’t appear to be any new market moving headlines to explain this week’s sharp move higher, other than rehashing what we already knew about Australian harvest, the Russian crop headed into dormancy, etc.," noted Benson Quinn. The recent uptick in tensions in Ukraine/Russia also remains a supportive factor. Even so, Ukraine says that its farmers have now planted 7.5 million hectares of winter grains, or 100% of the expected area, including 6.366 million ha of winter wheat, which is more than was originally forecast. The Ukraine Ministry said that as of Nov 1, Ukraine grain stocks were up 31% on a year ago at 29.9 MMT. Kazakhstan said that its 2014 grain harvest was 96% done at 18.2 MMT. Informa estimated US winter wheat plantings for the 2015 harvest at 42.2 million hectares, up fom 41.79 million previously but down slightly from 42.4 million a year ago. Dec 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.60 1/2, up 6 3/4 cents; Dec 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.05 1/2, up 1/4 cent; Dec 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.89 1/4, up 5 cents. For the week, front month Chicago wheat added 46 cents, with the Minneapolis market adding 45 cents and Kansas up 39 1/4 cents.

14-11-2014 14:49 PM | Chicago Reports
13/11/14 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed a little higher, with the largest gains in the deferred positions. Fresh news was a little lacking, with the usual weekly export sales report delayed until tomorrow. Sales for beans are expected to be over the 1MMT mark. Meal sales could be negative it is thought. MDA CropCast trimmed their forecast for the US soybean crop slightly, down by 0.25 MMT to 107.49 MMT. They were unchanged on Brazil and Argentina at a little over 91 MMT and 56 MMT respectively. Grain Growers of Canada said that the 2015 Canadian canola planted area will be unchanged from the 2014 area. Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $10.50 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents; Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.53 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents; Dec 14 Soybean Meal closed at $393.50, down $1.50; Dec 14 Soybean Oil closed at 32.07, down 15 points.

Corn: The corn market posted decent gains of around 8 cents. Heavy fund buying was a feature, with them booking an estimated net 20,000 contracts on the day. The CME Group reported that yesterday's traded volume in corn was the third highest in history. Increased tensions in Ukraine May be one factor encouraging them back. MDA CropCast cut their US corn production forecast by 1.4 MMT To 369.7 MMT. They also cut China by 1.7 MMT to 215.4 MMT and Argentina by 1.5 MMT to 22.3 MMT. There were however increases for Brazil, up 3.2 MMT to 77.2 MMT and for Ukraine, up 1.6 MMT to 26.8 MMT. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 500-750 TMT. Dec 14 corn closed at $3.86 1/4, up 8 1/2 cents; Mar 15 corn closed at $3.98 3/4, up 8 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market added to yesterday's gains, helped by fund money stepping in for an estimated 6,000 lots in Chicago wheat. Ideas that US winter wheat is at risk from the sub-zero temperatures gripping the Plains continues to add support. So too does the notion that all is not well with the Russian winter wheat crop, plus increased military activity in Eastern Ukraine. South Korea's KFA cancelled a tender to import 50,000 MMT of optional origin feed wheat. Japan bought 127,355 MMT of food wheat for Dec-Jan shipment of mostly US origin. MDA CropCast estimated the US 2015 wheat crop at 63 MMT versus 56 MMT this year. They see Russia's crop at 54.2 MMT next season (compared to 56.9 MMT this year), with Ukraine's down from 24.2 MMT to 23.2 MMT. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 300-450 TMT. Dec 14 CBOT wheat closed at $5.53 3/4, up 11 cents; Dec 14 KCBT wheat ended at $6.05 1/4, up 6 cents; Dec 14 MGEX wheat closed at $5.84 1/4, up 3 cents.

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