30 July 2015 | Online since 2003


Chicago Reports

30 July 2015 | Chicago Reports
29/07/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed mixed, higher on the nears and lower on new crop. After a 10% fall over the last 2 days the Shanghai Composite Index was up 3.4% today. Argentina's Ag Ministry said that the country had crushed a record 18.5 MMT of soybeans in the first half of 2015. They also said that Argentine growers are 59.5% sold on their 2014/15 soybean crop versus 49.2% committed this time a year ago. South Korea tendered for 60,000 MT of US/South American soy meal for November delivery. The GFS weather model is giving wetter than normal for the western corn belt, and generally drier than normal in the eastern half for the period through to Aug 13. Temperatures are forecast to be normal to cooler than normal everywhere but the southeast of the US. Cool August temperatures would normally be regarded as beneficial for crops, particularly beans as August is regarded as the critical yield determining month. New crop beans and meal should get a demand boost from a much tighter global rapeseed S&D situation in 2015/16. The Canadian Ag Ministry forecast a 2015 canola crop there of 14.3 MMT, down 1.7 MMT on their previous forecast and 1.3 MMT less than last year. They trimmed 0.8 MMT off their 2015/16 Canadian canola export forecast, taking that down to 7.6 MMT, which would be 1.6 MMT below 2014/15. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are between 500 TMT to 1 MMT for both marketing years combined. Aug 15 Soybeans closed at $9.83, up 8 1/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.43 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents; Aug 15 Soybean Meal closed at $350.00, up $4.80; Aug 15 Soybean Oil closed at 30.21, down 45 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 7 cents lower. The US Energy Dept had weekly US ethanol production down 8,000 barrels per day from the previous week to 965,000 bpd. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that growers there are 62.4% sold on their 2014/15 corn crop versus 53.5% committed this time a year ago. As well as being wetter than normal. July temperatures in the Midwest have also largely been cooler than average for the month. "The time worn adage is that 'rain makes grain' boosting corn yields in the critical July pollination period. However, the 2014 summer growing season proved that coolness may be more influential for corn for boosting yields. Midwest temperatures in July 2014 were 4 F below average, leading ultimately to a record harvest. The national average corn yield finished with 171 bushels per acre, 7% above trend. This was a surprising result, since rainfall was below average during the critical July pollination stage," said Martell Crop Projections. "A record corn yield was achieved in 2009 also, 9% above trend, bolstered by record cool July temperatures. Another “super cool” July in 1992 promoted favourable corn yields also 8.3% above trend (average). July coolness has been proven to be beneficial for corn yields, as the cooler temperatures reduce evaporation from the soil surface. This helps to conserve ground moisture in corn during the critical pollination stage," they add. Could this ultimately also prove to be true in 2015? The market seems to think that it might. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 500-800 TMT. Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.67 3/4, down 7 1/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.78 1/4, down 7 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower across the board. The Wheat Quality Council's spring wheat crop tour is underway, and said to be reporting some of the best potential wheat yields in years. The official tour estimate is expected to be out on Thursday. The day one yield of 51.1 bushels/acre, was up from the 2014 figure of 48.3 bu/acre, and the five year average of 43.4 bu/acre. It was also the highest in a tour history going back to 1994. This comes at a time when demand for US wheat is already slack, and right in the middle of the wheat harvest in the Black Sea region. Ukraine said that it had harvested 18.3 MMT of wheat so far and that yields were a bit better than last year. Russia said that it had harvested 27.7 MMT of wheat to date, and that its yields were also up a little compared to 12 months ago. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that growers there are 87.8% sold on their 2014/15 wheat crop versus 64.0% committed this time a year ago. Colombia are said to be in the market seeking wheat. Japan are tendering for 120,000 MT of feed wheat and 200,000 MT of feed barley for November shipment. Tunisia are looking for 134,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat. Morocco said that it had/would produce a record wheat harvest in 2015, and that it's import needs would therefore be reduced. Egypt’s Supply Minister said that the country has enough wheat stocks bought to last it for the next six months. These sort of statements are routine, and don't rule them out of tendering again in the market very soon, especially on this latest break in prices. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 350-600 TMT. A figure below this level would be another nail in the coffin for US wheat. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.96 1/4, down 14 1/2 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.95 1/4, down 9 1/2 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.29 1/2, down 10 3/4 cents.



29 July 2015 | Chicago Reports
28/07/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher, in a Turnaround Tuesday style of sorts. The recovery was only a partial one of what was lost yesterday though. The USDA didn't raise good to excellent crop ratings in last night's report, which was contrary to general expectations. They said that 71% of the crop is blooming, one point behind the 5-year average and that the proportion of the crop setting pods is 34%, double that of a week ago and 3 points ahead of the 5-year average. The Chinese stock market was down another 1.5% today, making for a 2-day loss of 10%. They are of course far and away the world's largest soybean buyer, being expected to account for almost two-thirds of global soybean trade in 2015/16, according to current USDA forecasts. Oil World said that due to sharply lower EU and world rapeseed/canola production this year the oilseed's premium over soybeans will continue to widen. Rapeseed oil should trade higher than soybean oil throughout most of 2015/16, they said. That also suggests that the relationship between rapeseed meal and soybean meal could stay skewed outside of what might be considered to be the "traditional" range. Oil World see EU soybean imports seen rising 4.5% to 14.5 MMT in 2015/16, with soybean meal imports up 3.9% to 21.5 MMT, reported Bloomberg. EU rapeseed imports are estimated up 8.6% to 2.64 MMT in 2015/16, they added. Ukraine, typically a large exporter to Europe, is 81% complete on it's 2015/16 rapeseed harvest producing a crop of 1.4 MMT to date, suggesting final output of around 1.7 MMT versus 1.8 MMT currently from the USDA and down 23% on a year ago. Aug 15 Soybeans closed at $9.74 3/4, up 13 1/2 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.44 3/4, up 11 1/2 cents; Aug 15 Soybean Meal closed at $345.20, up $1.00; Aug 15 Soybean Oil closed at 30.66, up 55 points.

Corn: The corn market staged a modest couple of cent recovery following yesterday's rout. Unlike with soybeans, the USDA did raise corn crop ratings in line with trade ideas - up one point to 70% good to excellent. They said that 78% of the crop is silking, up from 55% a week ago and versus 77% typically at this time. In addition 14% of the crop is at the dough stage versus 17% on average for this week. The ten and thirty year average for this week in the crop year (week 30) in the good to excellent category is 61% and 64% respectively, say Benson Quinn. All in all things are pretty good then really. Crop conditions were 5 points better than this a year ago and that harvest went on to break all previous records by the proverbial country mile. "Last year, it was Iowa farmland that flooded in June with 10 inches of rainfall. However, while flooding set back corn development, the final result was surprisingly good. Iowa corn yields averaged 178 bushels per acre, and 2% above average (trend). Iowa corn gradually recovered last season with exceptional July coolness and below average rainfall. How do current weather conditions compare? Temperatures this summer have been moderately cool in July, though not nearly as cool as last year in the Midwest," noted Martell Crop Projections. Ukraine remain busy exporting corn, with 831 TMT of the grain already shipped out this month. The Ukraine Ag Ministry are forecasting the country to export a new record grain volume in 2015/16, with corn shipments at around 19.8-21 MMT. The USDA currently only estimate these at 16 MMT, down 2 MMT from 18 MMT in 2014/15. South Korea's MFG bought 139,000 MT of optional origin corn for Dec-Jan shipment in a tender. The USDA reported 120,000 MT of sorghum sold to China, with delivery split between both crop years. There remains talk of Beijing looking to do something to restrict sorghum imports in favour of shifting some of their own huge domestic corn stocks. Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.75, up 2 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.85 1/2, up 2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed higher, recovering most of yesterday's losses. The USDA now have the 2015 US winter wheat harvest at 85% complete, up 5 points on the 5-year average. The spring wheat harvest is 2% done, which is 3 points behind the average for this time. Spring wheat crop conditions were up one point in the good to excellent category. A Wheat Quality Council’s spring wheat tour started today and ends on Thursday. Scouts are surveying fields in the Dakotas and Minnesota. "The first leg of the wheat tour notes yield potential above a year ago with one potential exception being a leg of the tour that went through Northern SD, but still recorded a yield in the neighborhood of 55 bpa vs. 65 bpa the prior year. The reports I have seen do not indicate that disease pressure is anything more than routine," said Benson Quinn's Brian Henry. India are said to have imposed a 10% import duty on wheat, the first such move in 8 years. The hope/aim is encourage local millers to use more of the government's stocks, the quality of which is usually questionable at best, and that's in a good year. This year's harvest was hit by rain and hail just before it started, cutting quality and leading to a rash of early season imports of mostly Australian wheat to blend in with their own inferior crop. The USDA's FAS raised their estimate for the Russian 2015 grain crop to 97 MMT, down 6% on a year ago. That includes 56 MMT of wheat, which is 3 MMT less than a year ago. They see grain exports in 2015/16 at 29 MMT, of which 21 MMT will be wheat. The Russian Ag Ministry said grain production could exceed 101 MMT this year. UkrAgroConsult estimated the Russian grain crop at 98 MMT, down 2 MMT from previously. That includes 57.5 MMT of wheat. They trimmed their 2015/16 Russian grain export forecast from 30 MMT to 28 MMT, of which 20 MMT will be wheat (down from 20.5 MMT previously). Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.10 3/4, up 8 1/4 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.04 3/4, up 5 1/2 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.40 1/4, up 3 1/4 cents.



28 July 2015 | Chicago Reports
27/07/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans began the week with heavy losses losses. Concerns about the Chinese economy drove the Shanghai Composite to post it's largest one day fall in more than 7 years today, prompting a wholesale commodity sell off. Fund money seems to be caught on the wrong side of this one, they were net long around 90,000 soybeans contracts in Friday's commitment of traders report. An improved US weather outlook adds to the bearish tone. "Drier weather forecasts are just what the doctor ordered for the rain saturated eastern Midwest corn and soybean crops. This week will be warmer with normal to below rainfall," said Benson Quinn. The trade is thinking that the USDA might increase soybean good to excellent crop ratings later today. Pakistan are said to have bought 126,000 MT of soybeans of South American origin overnight. At the close Aug 15 Soybeans finished at $9.61 1/4, down 30 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.33 1/4, down 31 3/4 cents; Aug 15 Soybean Meal closed at $344.20, down $10.60; Aug 15 Soybean Oil closed at 30.11, down 37 points.

Corn: The corn market also trades with double digit losses. Fund money has come off particularly badly in this break in corn prices, they were revealed to have added almost 77,000 contracts to their net long position in Friday's commitment of traders report, and are now net long to the tune of almost 280,000 lots. Ouch! South Korea are tendering for 70,000 MT of optional origin corn. The EU Commission's MARS unit cut their forecast for EU-28 corn yields from 7.22 MT/ha to 6.71 MT/ha today. That's now down sharply on 8.07 MT/ha a year ago and below the 5-year average of 7.02 MT/ha. "Prolonged and intense heat waves in July affected important cropland areas in northern Italy, France, Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic, Austria and Hungary. Maximum temperatures often exceeded 35°C and locally reached 40°C, hitting spring and winter crops during grain filling and maize while flowering," they said. The USDA are thought likely to increase good to excellent corn ratings by one or two points later today. Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.73, down 19 1/2 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.83 1/2, down 19 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market trades around 4-5 cents lower. MARS trimmed EU soft wheat yields a little, down from 5.85 MT/ha a month ago to 5.80 MT/ha. Ukraine said that their 2015 early grain harvest was 69% complete on 7 million ha, with yields averaging 3.36 MT/ha. That includes 4.7 million ha of wheat, producing a crop of 16.9 MMT so far. The Ukraine barley harvest is 76% complete at 6.25 MMT. Jordan tendered for 100,000 MT each of optional origin wheat and barley for Nov/Dec delivery. The Mexican wheat crop this year will come in at around 3.7 MMT, similar to a year ago, according to the USDA's FAS. Domestic consumption will rise from 6.85 MMT to 7 MMT in 2015/16, they say. Despite that imports will fall from 4.5 MMT to 4.4 MMT, they predict. Canada said that they'd exported 16.8 MMT of wheat (excluding durum) in the first 50 weeks of 2014/15, a similar level to a year ago. Durum exports were 4.5 MMT versus 4.7 MMT a year ago, and barley exports were 1.4 MMT against 1.3 MMT in 2013/14. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.02 1/2, down 9 1/4 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.99 1/4, down 8 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.37, down 8 cents.



27 July 2015 | Chicago Reports
27/07/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans trade with double digit losses. Concerns about the Chinese economy drove the Shanghai Composite to post it's largest one day fall in more than 7 years today, prompting a wholesale commodity sell off. Fund money seems to be caught on the wrong side of this one, they were net long around 90,000 soybeans contracts in Friday's commitment of traders report. An improved US weather outlook adds to the bearish tone. "Drier weather forecasts are just what the doctor ordered for the rain saturated eastern Midwest corn and soybean crops. This week will be warmer with normal to below rainfall," said Benson Quinn. The trade is thinking that the USDA might increase soybean good to excellent crop ratings later today. Pakistan are said to have bought 126,000 MT of soybeans of South American origin overnight.

Corn: The corn market also trades with double digit losses. Fund money has come off particularly badly in this break in corn prices, they were revealed to have added almost 77,000 contracts to their net long position in Friday's commitment of traders report, and are now net long to the tune of almost 280,000 lots. Ouch! South Korea are tendering for 70,000 MT of optional origin corn. The EU Commission's MARS unit cut their forecast for EU-28 corn yields from 7.22 MT/ha to 6.71 MT/ha today. That's now down sharply on 8.07 MT/ha a year ago and below the 5-year average of 7.02 MT/ha. "Prolonged and intense heat waves in July affected important cropland areas in northern Italy, France, Germany, Poland, the Czech Republic, Austria and Hungary. Maximum temperatures often exceeded 35°C and locally reached 40°C, hitting spring and winter crops during grain filling and maize while flowering," they said. The USDA are thought likely to increase good to excellent corn ratings by one or two points later today.

Wheat: The wheat market trades around 4-5 cents lower. MARS trimmed EU soft wheat yields a little, down from 5.85 MT/ha a month ago to 5.80 MT/ha. Ukraine said that their 2015 early grain harvest was 69% complete on 7 million ha, with yields averaging 3.36 MT/ha. That includes 4.7 million ha of wheat, producing a crop of 16.9 MMT so far. The Ukraine barley harvest is 76% complete at 6.25 MMT. Jordan tendered for 100,000 MT each of optional origin wheat and barley for Nov/Dec delivery. The Mexican wheat crop this year will come in at around 3.7 MMT, similar to a year ago, according to the USDA's FAS. Domestic consumption will rise from 6.85 MMT to 7 MMT in 2015/16, they say. Despite that imports will fall from 4.5 MMT to 4.4 MMT, they predict. Canada said that they'd exported 16.8 MMT of wheat (excluding durum) in the first 50 weeks of 2014/15, a similar level to a year ago. Durum exports were 4.5 MMT versus 4.7 MMT a year ago, and barley exports were 1.4 MMT against 1.3 MMT in 2013/14.



26 July 2015 | Chicago Reports
24/07/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower on the day and for the week. An improved US weather outlook and stiff competition from South America weigh on the market, with beans now back below $10/bushel. ABOIVE estimated that Brazil will export 50.3 MMT of soybeans this season, well above the USDA's 46.8 MMT forecast. "Drier weather recently has been a welcome reprieve from flooding previously in Illinois, Missouri, Indiana and Ohio. Flooded crops are gradually recovering. Increased sunshine has also been beneficial for Midwest crop development. Midwest weather conditions are expected to trend warmer in the week ahead with near- to above average rainfall. The new forecast calls for temperatures 3-5 F above normal, the Upper Midwest even hotter in Minnesota and Wisconsin," said Martell Crop Projections. The trade is expecting the USDA to possibly raise good to excellent crop ratings for soybeans on Monday. The crop was rated 62% good to excellent last week, something like 63-64% could be on the cards on Monday. The USDA reported China bought 220,000 MT of new crop US soybeans today under the daily reporting system. They are said to have been active buyers of South American material these past few weeks. Aug 15 Soybeans closed at $9.91 1/4, down 18 3/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.65, down 15 1/2 cents; Aug 15 Soybean Meal closed at $354.80, down $4.20; Aug 15 Soybean Oil closed at 30.48, down 71 points. For the week Aug 15 beans were down 23 1/2 cents, meal was $1.20 lower and oil fell 130 points.

Corn: The corn market closed with double digit losses. As with beans an improved US weather outlook weighs on the market, driving prices back below the psychologically important $4/bushel level. The trade is expecting the USDA to report the US corn crop to maybe be in a bit better shape in Monday night's crop condition report. The crop was rated 69% good to excellent last week, with "silking" one point behind the 5-year average. "US corn pollination may have advanced to 70% complete, up from 55% a week ago. This is the most sensitive period for the corn yield. Generous rainfall promotes favourable yields. However, with severe drought, kernels are not successfully pollinated. This leads to blank spaces on the ear that would shrink the yield. Producers are not worried about drought this year. Midwest soil moisture runs from ample to surplus," said Martell Crop Projections. The USDA reported that Mexico bought 231,000 MT of US corn overnight, 168,000 MT of which was new crop. They also reported export sales of 116,000 MT of sorghum for delivery to unknown destinations, almost certainly China. Of that total 58,000 MT is for delivery during the 2014/15 marketing year and 58,000 MT for delivery during the 2015/16 marketing year. The Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Centre upped their forecast for corn yields there this year from 6.0 MT/ha to 6.2 MT/ha, increasing production from a previous forecast of 25.3 MMT to 26.5 MMT. The crop there is in generally excellent condition, they said. Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.92 1/2, down 10 3/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $4.02 3/4, down 11 cents. For the week Sep 15 corn was 12 1/2 cents lower, with Dec 15 down 13 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market was unable to buck the trend set by both beans and corn, closing lower on the day and for the week. The USDA announced export sales of 104,350 MT of US wheat for delivery to Taiwan during the 2015/016 marketing year. Of that total, 56,550 MT is hard red spring wheat, 36,550 MT is hard red winter wheat and 11,250 MT is white wheat. That isn't enough to set the market alight though. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that winter wheat planting in Argentina is 93.8% complete on 3.517 million ha. They left their final area estimate unchanged at 3.75 million ha, down sharply from 4.4 million ha a year ago. The CWB crop tour pegged Canadian spring wheat production at 18.1 MMT and the durum crop at 4.2 MMT, with an all wheat crop of around 25 MMT. The USDA had the crop at 27.5 MMT earlier this month. FranceAgriMer left French wheat crop conditions unchanged at 76% good to very good. They said that 60% of the crop had already been harvested as of Monday night, up from 38% a week ago and almost double the 33% done from this time last year as the warm and dry conditions allow the combines to make rapid progress. Russia said that it's 2015 wheat harvest was 21.9% complete on 5.8 million ha, producing a crop of 22.5 MMT to date. Yields so far are said to be averaging 3.86 MT/ha versus 3.60 MT/ha a year ago. That is expected to drop off however as the harvest advances into less productive and drier areas such as the Centre, Volga and Siberian regions. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.11 3/4, down 9 3/4 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.07 1/4, down 9 3/4 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.45, down 7 3/4 cents. For the week that puts Chicago wheat 42 1/4 cents lower, with the Kansas market down 39 1/4 cents and Minneapolis 29 1/4 cents lower.



24 July 2015 | Chicago Reports
23/07/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower. The USDA reported weekly export sales for beans of 80,800 MT for 2014/15 and 241,800 MT for 2015/16. The latter was below trade expectations, and appeared to confirm trade concerns that new crop sales are lagging. Trade estimates had been for sales of around 300,000-550,000 MT for new crop soybeans. There was however an additional sale of 180,000 MT of new crop beans sold to China under the daily reporting system. The USDA also announced 40,000 MT of US soybean oil sold to Venezuela for 2014/15 shipment. Actual soybean exports this week of 315,900 MT were pretty decent, being up 87 percent from the previous week and 56 percent above the prior 4-week average. Meal sales of 65,800 MT on old crop, and net reductions of 32,100 MT on new crop were poor. Trade gossip says that Ecuador and the Philippines have both purchased soymeal from Argentina for November and December delivery in preference to US material. MDA CropCast lowered their US soybean production estimate by 31 million bushels from last week to 3.663 billion bushels. "Rains were not quite as heavy across the south central and eastern Midwest this past week, which allowed wetness to ease a bit. The continued downturn in rains there this week will allow conditions to improve further," they said. A Bloomberg survey into trader sentiment on beans found 5 bulls, 12 bears and 7 neutral. Aug 15 Soybeans closed at $10.10, down 10 3/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans ended at $9.80 1/2, down 15 cents; Aug 15 Soybean Meal finished at $359.00, down $4.50; Aug 15 Soybean Oil ended at 31.19, down 16 points.

Corn: The corn market ended the day around 4 cents lower. Net weekly export sales of 223,400 MT for delivery in 2014/15 were a marketing-year low, being down 33 percent from the previous week and 54 percent below the prior 4-week average. New crop sales of sales of 311,400 MT were also at the low end of trade hopes. The trade was expecting sales of 250,000-450,000 MT for old crop and 300,000-500,000 MT for new crop. Still, weekly shipments hit a new marketing year high of 1.15 MMT. "However, the improving (US weather) conditions, harvest starting in the southern plans and delta as well as competitive demand might warrant a wider trade, at least for the moment," said Benson Quinn. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that their Argentine production forecast remains at 25 MMT. Harvesting of that crop is 73.4% complete so far, they added. Taiwan's MFIG bought 130,000 MT of Brazilian corn for Oct/Dec shipment. South Korea's FL bought 69,000 MT of optional origin corn for Jan shipment. South Korea's MFG cancelled a tender for 70,000 MT of optional origin corn due, they said, to high prices. Ukraine said that they had exported 18.88 MMT of corn in 2014/15. The USDA's FAS estimated the EU-28 corn crop at 66 MMT this year, down 12.6% on the record 77.5 MMT produced a year ago. MDA CropCast cut their forecast for the US corn crop by almost 82 million bushels this year to 13.443 billion bushels. That helped to knock 4 MMT off the global crop in 2015/16. A Bloomberg survey into trader sentiment on US corn prices found 4 bulls, 15 bears and that were 7 neutral. Sep 15 Corn closed at $4.03 1/4, up 1/2 cent; Dec 15 Corn ended at $4.13 3/4, up 1/4 cent.

Wheat: The wheat market closed mostly higher. Weekly export sales of 502,800 MT beat albeit modest trade expectations of 200-400,000 MT. Exports of 582,300 MT were also up noticeably from the previous week, with the primary destinations being China (121,700 MT). Japan bought 141,483 MT of food wheat for Aug-Sept shipment, most of which was US material too. MDA CropCast trimmed their Canadian wheat production estimate by 0.64 MMT from a week ago to 27.2 MMT. "Rains last week further improved moisture in central Alberta and northern Saskatchewan, and additional improvements are expected this week. However, some dryness will likely linger in southern Alberta," they said. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that wheat planting there is almost 94% complete. The pending area is concentrated almost entirely on the Buenos Aires region, they added. They see plantings at 3.75 million ha this year. The Rosario Exchange see them even lower at 3.6 million acres, down a whopping 20% from last season. The Argentina wheat acreage may be the smallest in 100 years, based on a new report from AgroSouth, the online news agency, say Martell Crop Projections. "Planting rains were deficient in Cordoba and Santa Fe, the second and third top wheat provinces. Producers were still looking to plant wheat in the winter season June and July. However, unusually warm, dry weather has prevailed, severely depleting soil moisture, the Rosario Grains Exchange claims. A Bloomberg survey into trader sentiment on US wheat prices found only 3 bulls, 18 bears and 5 that were neutral. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.21 1/2, up 4 3/4 cent; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat ended at $5.17, up 4 3/4 cent; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat finished at $5.52 3/4, up 4 3/4 cents.



23 July 2015 | Chicago Reports
22/07/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed mostly lower save for nearby Aug 15. The USDA reported 120,000 MT of soybeans sold to China for 2015/16 delivery under the daily system. Trade estimates for tomorrow's Weekly Export Sales report around 300,000-550,000 MT for new crop soybeans and something like zero to 150,000 MT for old crop. Aug 15 Soybeans closed at $10.20 3/4, up 2 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.95 1/2, down 9 1/4 cents; Aug 15 Soybean Meal closed at $363.50, up $3.60; Aug 15 Soybean Oil closed at 31.35, down 58 points.

Corn: The corn market closed 3 to 5 cents lower, setting new lows for the month. South Korea KOCOPIA bought 55,000 MT of corn of either US or South American origin for November shipment. The US Energy Dept reported weekly ethanol production at 973,000 barrels/day, down 11,000 bpd from the previous week. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 250,000-450,000 MT for old crop and 300,000-500,000 MT for new crop. Sep 15 Corn closed at $4.02 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $4.13 1/2, down 4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower on all three exchanges, extending the recent losing streak. Yesterday's Egyptian tender merely confirmed what the market knew already, that US wheat is far too expensive on the international stage. US exporters are going to have a very difficult job increasing foreign sales by the 15% that the the USDA has them targeted to do in 2015/16. Estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are only around 200-400,000 MT. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.16 3/4, down 8 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.12 1/4, down 5 3/4 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.48, down 8 1/2 cents.



21 July 2015 | Chicago Reports
20/07/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower in part of what looked like a general "risk off" move in commodities. That was despite weekly export inspections of 306,379 MT setting a 9-week high, and being more than double the previous week. That means that US exporters have already shipped 98% of the USDA's target for the season versus 94% typically at this time. After the close the USDA left good to excellent crop ratings unchanged at 62%. They said that 56% of the crop is blooming and that 17% is setting pods. Both are exactly in line with the 5-year averages. Indiana, Ohio, Illinois and Missouri have the worst crop ratings, with at least 20% of the crop in poor to very poor condition in those states. Wisconsin, North Dakota, Tennessee and Minnesota have the best crop ratings. Safras e Mercado raised their 2016 Brazilian soybean production estimate to a record 99.8 MMT (the USDA are at 97 MMT). They said that they expected producers to plant a 3.8% higher area, taking plantings up to a record 32.9 million ha. Linn Group estimated 2015 US soybean yields at 44.1 bu/acre versus the USDA estimate of 46.0 bu/acre. Oil World forecast the Canadian canola crop down 11.3% to a 5-year low of 13.8 MMT, and said that 2015/16 exports would drop 12.7% to 7.55 MMT. They now have the global crop at 64 MMT, down 5 MMT from last year and 1.8 MMT below their previous estimate. Aug 15 Soybeans closed at $10.07 3/4, down 7 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.99 1/2, down 7 1/4 cents; Aug 15 Soybean Meal closed at $356.00, down $5.10; Aug 15 Soybean Oil closed at 31.68, down 10 points.

Corn: The corn market finished the day with heavy losses. An improving weather pattern for the Midwest, and the prospect for potentially better crop ratings from the USDA after the close got fund money longs lightening the load. The USDA in fact left good to excellent ratings unchanged, in a manner of speaking, at 69%. There was however a 2 point shift from very good into excellent. They said that 55% of the crop is silking, up from 27% a week ago and 1 point behind the 5-year average for this time. Indiana has 26% of the crop rated poor to very poor. In North Carolina it's 22% and in Ohio it's 20%. "Weather forecasts look to be beneficial to the corn crop with higher than normal temps and near normal moisture expected over the next week," said Benson Quinn. Weekly export inspections came in at 1.16 MMT. Safras e Mercado sees the 2015/16 Brazilian summer corn area at 4.1 million ha, down 9.7% from a year ago. They see winter, or safrinha, corn plantings at 10.2 million ha, up 7.8% from a year ago. They have the total 2015/16 Brazilian corn crop estimated at 89.2 MMT versus the 2014/15 crop of 85.6 MMT. Ukraine said that they'd exported more than 1 MMT of grains already this season, including 620 TMT of corn. Linn Group estimated 2015 US corn yields at 162.0 bu/acre versus the USDA's estimate of 166.8 bu/acre. The US is forecast to have above normal temperatures on the plains, and near to below ones in the eastern corn belt through until the end of the month. Heat stress, if there is any, should be limited to Kansas/Nebraska. Reuters reported that Ukraine may lower its corn production forecast due to heat/dryness. Sep 15 Corn closed at $4.05, down 15 1/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $4.16, down 15 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed sharply lower across the three exchanges. The move lower came despite weekly export inspections of 489,089 MT topping trade estimates, although these were still hardly thrilling. Egypt's GASC announced a tender for US soft white wheat, US soft red winter wheat and/or Canadian soft wheat. They are also in the marker for soft wheat of EU/Black Sea origin, with the results expected tomorrow. The USDA said that the US 2015 winter wheat harvest was 75% done, one point ahead of normal and 10 points up on the week. Spring wheat crop conditions were lowered one point to 70% good to excellent, the same as this time last year. Taiwan are in the market for 104,350 MT of US wheat for Sep/Oct shipment. SovEcon estimated Russia’s 2015 grain crop at 96.5 MMT, down from a previous estimate of 98.0 MMT due to dryness. They cut wheat production by 1 MMT to 56 MMT. A Bloomberg survey estimated Russia’s 2015 wheat crop a little higher at 57.4 MMT versus the 2014 crop of 59.1 MMT. APK Inform said that Russian seaports exported 353 TMT of grains last week, up from 143 TMT the previous week, of which 296 TMT was wheat. SovEcon said that they expect the pace of Russian export to pick up very soon. The slow harvest and uncertainties over the new wheat export tax have been the reason for the relatively slow start to the season, they said. "There is talk that Russian officials have ironed out the methods used to determine what the exporters owe on export sales," noted Benson Quinn. That could be the catalyst to speed things up. There's been plenty of talk of dryness issues affecting the Canadian wheat crop this year. A Canadian Wheat Board crop tour, which starts tomorrow and ends on Friday, may shed some useful light on this. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.32 3/4, down 21 1/4 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.25 1/2, down 21 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.59, down 15 3/4 cents.



19 July 2015 | Chicago Reports
17/07/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower on the day and for the week. Weather forecasts for the week ahead are developing a more normal look to them. There's a feeling that crop ratings should be unchanged in Monday's crop progress report, and a few suggesting that a small increase in good to excellent could be on the cards. The latest Commitment of Traders report shows fund money adding to their net long position for the week through to Tuesday night. They've probably lightened the load a little since then. Lack of new crop export demand is grabbing a few headlines. Chinese new crop US soybean export purchases are said to be only 2.4 MMT versus 7.0 MMT this time last year. They're said to have been active buyers of South American product in the past couple of weeks. Reports of South American meal sales into the US lend a bearish slant. I'd look for further choppy trade to continue through the rest of the month, and into the key yield-determining month for beans of August. Currently it still seems that crop conditions are extremely varied across the US. A huge area from Kansas, through Missouri, into Illinois, Indiana and onto Ohio and Michigan sees good to excellent soybean ratings between 12 percentage points (in Michigan) and 45 points (Missouri) down on where they were a year ago. Further north/east things look better. Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and the Dakota's all have good to excellent ratings in the 70-80's, and most of those states are seeing better ratings compared to this time last year. Aug 15 Soybeans closed at $10.14 3/4, down 4 1/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $10.06 3/4, down 4 1/4 cents; Aug 15 Soybean Meal closed at $361.10, down $2.50; Aug 15 Soybean Oil closed at 31.78, up 32 points. For the week, Aug 15 beans were down 17 cents, and Nov 15 was down 15 1/2 cents. Aug 15 meal was up $5.50 compared to last Friday and Aug 15 oil was down 64 points.

Corn: The corn market closed with near 10 cent losses. US weather conditions are improving. The market will be wondering what the USDA will do with crop ratings on Monday night. The general consensus is for corn to be unchanged at 69% good to excellent, but the USDA have surprised the market the last couple of weeks by holding them unchanged when small reductions were anticipated. Could they now start to nudge them a bit higher? That notion may have encouraged some book-squaring today. The latest Commitment of Traders report has fund money increasing their long to over 200k contracts for the week through to Tuesday night. Temperatures are forecast in the 90’s today, tomorrow and into the second half of next week across the northern plains and corn belt. That could be just what the doctor ordered for crops that have got plenty of moisture at their disposal. Elsewhere, FranceAgriMer cut the proportion of the French corn crop rated good to very good by 4 percentage points to 67% today, down from 84% this time last year, as heat and dryness there takes it's toll on corn. The proportion of the crop at the silking stage was up from 18% a week ago to 54%, far higher than 22% this time last year. Ukraine continue to export corn at a brisk pace. Their total grain exports so far this year are 939 TMT, with over half of that volume (502 TMT) being corn. There's a further 164 TMT of grains already loaded waiting to go, taking total exports so far this season to 1.1 MMT. Quality issues with this year's rain-affected US wheat crop could see more of that heading into the feed sector, in direct competition with corn. The EU said that they'd issued 64 TMT worth of corn export licences so far this season, but authorised 348 TMT worth of corn imports. China only sold 65 TMT of the more than 5 MMT of corn stocks offered up at auction this week. There are some reports of Brazilian corn being exported to the US. Sep 15 Corn closed at $4.20 1/4, down 9 3/4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $4.31 1/4, down 9 3/4 cents. Sep 15 corn was 14 1/2 cents lower on the week, Dec 15 lost 13 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower on the day and for the week. Lack of export interest continues to be the thorn in the side of US wheat. Reports of neighbouring Mexico buying French wheat in preference to US material hardly inspires confidence that the US will achieve a 15% increase in foreign sales this year, as the USDA currently predict. The EU has issued 937 TMT worth of soft wheat export licences in the past two weeks, some 47% more than export sales reported by the USDA. Algeria were said to have bought at least 250,000 MT, and possibly as much as 600,000 MT, of optional origin (possibly French) wheat for October shipment this week. Reports out of Russia and Ukraine continue to indicate higher yields than a year ago. The Ukraine early grain harvest is said to be 31% complete, with yields averaging 3.15 MT/ha versus 3.06 MT/ha a year ago. That includes 6 MMT of wheat, for which the harvest is said to be 26% complete. They've exported 248 TMT of wheat since Jul 1. Russia said that it's harvest was 10.8% complete on 5 million ha, producing a crop of 18.7 MMT so far, with yields at 3.73 MT/ha, up 5.7% on a year ago. That includes 14.8 MMT of wheat on 3.9 million ha (14.5% of the planned area), with average yields of 3.83 MT/ha, up 5.8% on a year ago. The Russian barley harvest is said to be 7.6% complete on 676k ha, producing a crop of 2.5 MMT so far with yields averaging 3.70 MT/ha, up 8.8% on 3.40 MT/ha a year ago. The head of the Regional Ag Ministry in the Saratov area of the country however said that grain production there could be down by around a third this year, to 2.5 MMT, due to drought. If rains don't arrive soon, this could also have a negative impact on plantings in the autumn for the 2016 harvest, she added. As ever with Russia though, you can never be 100% sure exactly how accurate these reports are. Are these statements simply an attempt to prise a bit of extra financial aid from Moscow? Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.54, down 8 1/4 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.46 1/2, down 6 3/4 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.74 3/4, down 7 1/4 cents. This was around 22 cents, 26 cents and 33 cents lower respectively for the week.



17 July 2015 | Chicago Reports
16/07/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower for the third session in a row. "Weather played big factor in today’s session with the market higher early in the day session on a hotter outlook for next week, but a shift in the mid-day model that moved the heat back to the southwest allowed market to drift back lower," said Benson Quinn. Meal was up, in the nearby months at least, despite a rumour that South American product was being imported into the SE of the US, they noted. There are supportive stories around for meal too, like that some US dairy farmers are switching into it and away from canola meal at current price differentials. Weekly export sales of 45,500 MT of old crop and 507,000 MT of new crop were a bit better than some trade estimates. Most of the new crop (403,000 MT) went to "unknown" destinations. Lanworth estimated the US 2015 soybean crop at 3.81 billion bushels, somewhat lower than the USDA's 3.885 billion and 4% down on last year's 3.969 billion. MDA CropCast were unchanged on their US soybean forecast at 3.694 billion bushels, along with making no alteration to a world crop estimate of 299.2 MMT, down 2.3% on a year ago. There are reports that China bought two cargoes of Argentine beans yesterday for Sept-Oct shipment. There's also talk that they may have bought as many as 25 cargoes of South American beans over the last couple of weeks for Oct-Nov shipment. China's July bean imports are expected to be at record levels of 9 MMT or more. Aug 15 Soybeans closed at $10.19, down 6 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $10.11, down 5 cents; Aug 15 Soybean Meal closed at $363.60, up $1.40; Aug 15 Soybean Oil closed at 31.46, down 19 points.

Corn: The corn market closed with small token gains. That came despite weekly export sales of 331,100 MT for delivery in 2014/15 being a marketing-year low. Sales of 325,100 MT for 2015/16 weren't the greatest either. Sorghum sales were just 100 MT. A report on Reuters suggested that China's new love affair with sorghum could come to an abrupt end in 2015/16, with imports forecast down 30% compared to 2014/15. The country's huge domestic corn stockpile means that Beijing will be forced to cut local prices in an attempt to shift some surplus stocks. In addition current new crop US sorghum prices are around $270 CIF versus feed barley from Europe, Australia or Canada at around $240 and even cheaper options available from Ukraine. China are said to have imported 4.27 MMT of sorghum in the first 5 months of the year, a 51% hike compared to a year ago. Lanworth estimated the US 2015 corn crop at 13.9 billion bushels, some 2.7% higher than the USDA's 13.53 billion, although 2.2% lower than 14.216 billion a year ago. MDA CropCast estimated the US crop at 13.525 billion, unchanged from a week ago. They raised their view on the global corn crop in 2015/16 by 2.07 MMT due to a corresponding increase for Brazil. Conab say that Brazil’s second harvest of corn will boost the national corn crop to 81.81 MMT, which if achieved, would set a new record, note Martell Crop Projections. "Weather conditions have favoured the development of 'safrinha' corn, grown as a second crop after the summer harvest is finished, they say. Mato Grosso is around a third harvested on their safrinha corn, and in Parana they're about a quarter done, slowed by heavy rain. Strategie Grains cut their EU-28 corn production forecast by 800,000 MT to 66.7 MMT on heat/dryness, although that's still around 1 MMT higher than the USDA's current 65.77 MMT estimate. Sep 15 Corn closed at $4.30, up 1/2 cent; Dec 15 Corn closed at $4.41, up 3/4 cent.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower. Weekly export sales of only 291,500 MT were pretty dismal, and once again highlight the lack of competitiveness of US wheat on the international stage. How on earth are the US going to manage to increase exports 15% this year, as the USDA currently predict? Today's numbers mean that US exporters are 25% sold on the USDA's target for the season. A year ago that figure was 36% sold. There are reports that Mexico has bought EU wheat rather than material from its next door neighbour. With the euro remaining under pressure it's not inconceivable that EU wheat will be turning up on the US east coast before too long. Strategie Grains cut their view on EU soft wheat production this year from 141.6 MMT to 140.9 MMT, Despite the drop, they see exports going the other way. They estimated those at 26.6 MMT versus a previous forecast of 25.7 MMT. MDA CropCast were unchanged on their forecasts for the global, US and EU wheat crops at 706.9 MMT, 2.133 billion bushels and 141.4 MMT respectively. Lanworth estimated the US all wheat crop at 58.8 MMT versus 58.46 MMT from the USDA and 55.13 MMT a year ago. Official Russian Ministry reports say that whilst this year's harvest is running behind last year's pace, yields are up. Ukraine are saying the same thing. Exports in the new 2015/16 have been slow to get going out of Russia, but have been brisk out of Ukraine. The latter have already exported close on 1 MMT of grain in little over the 2 weeks of the 2015/16 season. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that rains in Argentina are delaying wheat planting, which they estimate to be 75% complete. They forecast the final area at 3.75 million ha this year, down 15% versus 4.4 million ha a year ago. The Rosario Grain Exchange are even lower with their planting estimate at 3.5 million ha. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.62 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.53 1/4, down 5 3/4 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.82, down 7 1/2 cents.




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