27 January 2015 | Online since 2003


Chicago Reports

24 January 2015 | Chicago Reports
23/01/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower on the day and lower for the third week in a row. Weekly export sales of only 14,100 MT for 2014/15 were a marketing-year low, down 99 percent from the previous week and 98 percent below the prior 4-week average. There were cancellations from unknown destinations (413,800 MT) and China (77,000 MT). There were also net sales of 101,200 MT for 2015/16 shipment. Actual exports themselves of 1,631,800 MT were still pretty robust though. The US has now exported 33 MMT of soybeans already this year, and has another 11.3 MMT of outstanding sales. That takes total commitments for 2014/15 to 44.3 MMT, which is 92% of the USDA target for the season, versus 78% normally at this time. The Argentine Ag Ministry trimmed their forecast for soybean plantings there this year to 20 million hectares, down 0.2 million from previously, but up from 19.78 million a year ago. They said that the crop is now 95% planted versus 92% this time last year. Crop conditions are said to be good. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated Argentine plantings a little higher at 20.4 million hectares, of which 98% is already sown, according to them. Brazilian analysts Agroconsult forecast the soybean crop there at 93.9 MMT, which is down slightly on their previous estimate and 1.6 MMT below the USDA, although still a record. Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $9.72 3/4, down 4 cents; May 15 Soybeans closed at $9.79 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents; Mar 15 Soybean Meal closed at $331.50, up $1.40; Mar 15 Soybean Oil closed at 31.60, down 37 points. For the week that puts nearby beans down 19 cents, with meal up $5.30 and oil 179 points lower.

Corn: The corn market closed higher on the day, but virtually unchanged on the week. Weekly export sales of a very impressive 2,185,400 MT for 2014/15 were a marketing-year high and up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Actual shipments of 762,400 MT were also much better than a week ago, and up 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. Shipments for the season so far are 13.8 MMT, along with another 16.6 MMT of outstanding sales. That puts total sales commitments so far this season at 68% of the USDA target for 2014/15 versus 59% typically at this time. That's quite impressive given the recent strength of the US dollar. Sorghum sales were large again at 307,700 MT for 2014/15, and were mostly for China (209,500 MT) and unknown destinations (86,100 MT). Total sorghum sales commitments for the season are now already 96% of the USDA target for all of 2014/15. The Argentine Ag Ministry forecast all corn plantings there at 5.4 million hectares, down from 5.5 million previously. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimate corn for grain plantings at 3 million hectares, and said that sowing is 91.6% complete, which is up only 3.8 percentage points on a week ago. China's December corn imports were only 607 TMT, down 26% versus a year previously. Their total 2014 calendar year corn imports were 2.6 MMT, a 20% decline versus 2013. Agroconsult estimated Brazil's corn crop this year at 80 MMT, consisting of 30 MMT of full season corn and 50 MMT of "safrinha" or second crop corn. Brazilian growers could do with a timely 2014/15 soybean harvest to get all that second crop corn planted. Will thy get it? Some buyers may see the escalating violence in Ukraine as a reason to shy away from committing to too much of their corn for the time being. Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.86 3/4, up 3 cents; May 15 Corn closed at $3.95 1/4, up 3 1/4 cents. For the week front month corn was a quarter of a cent lower.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower in Kansas and Chicago, and a tad higher in Minneapolis, although all three were lower for the week. Weekly export sales of 458,400 MT for delivery in the 2014/15 marketing year were up 61 percent from the previous week and 69 percent from the prior 4-week average. These were at the top end of albeit modest trade expectations and the best since mid-November. Total net sales are now 77% of the USDA target for the season versus 75.8% typically at this time. More weekly sales like this would be nice, but can the US get them with the dollar at new 11 year highs versus the euro? There were also net sales of 106,000 MT for 2015/16. The Argentine Ag Ministry raised their forecast for this season's wheat crop there from 13.2 MMT to 13.9 MMT, an increase of 51% on a year ago, aided by a 44% jump in planted area. The harvest there is now complete. There's talk of dryness issues for US winter wheat areas. "Heavy soaking rain is needed now in hard red winter wheat. The subsoil is very dry in Kansas, Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle, all key wheat areas, from 3 straight months of drought," said Martell Crop Projections. Meanwhile "tensions continue to rise in Ukraine as the Russians step up their game. The benefits to the EU export market, resulting from the Black Sea backing away from the export market, are being complemented by continued weakness in the Euro," said Benson Quinn. They also noted that Russian analysts IKAR estimate the 2015 Russian grain crop at only 86 MMT versus 104 MMT in 2014, including 50 MMT of wheat against 59 MMT last year. "This seems like an aggressive cut at this point in the game," was their take on that. We shall see. Mar 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.30, down 3 3/4 cents; Mar 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.64, down 3/4 cent; Mar 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.76, up 1/2 cent. For the week Chicago wheat was down 2 3/4 cents, with Kansas 13 cents lower and Minneapolis lost 8 1/2 cents.



23 January 2015 | Chicago Reports
22/01/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed around 5-7 cents lower. The US dollar rose to new highs following the news that the ECB was to pump EUR60 billion a month into the eurozone economy. The euro fell to its lowest level against the US dollar since September 2003 on the news. The spectre of this weekend's looming Greek elections is also putting the single currency under pressure. Europe are of course the world's second largest soybean buyer after China. The IGC raised their forecast for the world 2014/15 soybean crop by 4 MMT to a new record 312 MMT, a 10% rise year on year. Consumption was increased 3 MMT and ending sticks raised 2 MMT. "Output in South America is on track to surpass all records," they said. They raised their outlook on Brazil to 94 MMT and increased Argentina to 54 MMT. China's imports were increased to a record 74 MMT. Trade estimates for tomorrow's one day delayed weekly export sales report for beans are around 500-700 TMT. "Sales should really start to slow over the next couple week’s as China gets quiet ahead of Lunar New Year holidays and then demand switches to South America," said Benson Quinn. Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $9.76 3/4, down 6 3/4 cents; May 15 Soybeans closed at $9.83, down 6 1/2 cents; Mar 15 Soybean Meal closed at $330.10, down $0.40; Mar 15 Soybean Oil closed at 31.97, down 44 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 3-4 cents lower. Falling wheat and soybeans, plus the perennially firm US dollar didn't help corn's cause today. The IGC added 10 MMT to the global corn crop in 2014/15, but also raised consumption by a similar amount. World ending stocks were cut 1 MMT to 194 MMT, which is still 5 MMT above the USDA's latest estimate though. There were "bigger than previously forecast crops in Argentina, Brazil, the EU and Ukraine, but a reduced figure for the US," they said. The EU was also seen importing 1.5 MMT more corn in 2014/15 than projected a month ago. The IGC's estimate for the 2014/15 Ukraine corn crop is now 28.5 MMT, which is the same as the Ukraine Ag Ministry. They see Ukraine's 2014/15 corn exports at 18 MMT, up 0.5 MMT from their previous estimate, although less than the 20.2 MMT predicted by the Ag Ministry. The US Energy Dept reported weekly ethanol production up slightly (1,000 barrels/day) to 979,000 bpd. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for corn are in the region of 600-800 TMT. Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.83 3/4, down 4 1/4 cents; May 15 Corn closed at $3.92, down 3 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower across the three exchanges, reversing earlier action. This may have been linked to the US dollar surging to fresh highs following the ECB announcement. Constant dollar strength has been a real thorn in the side of US export hopes of late. Early strength had been tied to increased military activity in Ukraine, and another upsurge in tensions between Russia and the West. The IGC were unchanged on their estimate for the global wheat crop in 2014/15 at 717 MMT, but trimmed 4 MMT off consumption to 708 MMT. Ending stocks were increased by 3 MMT to 196 MMT, similar to the USDA's latest estimate. "Prospects for 2015/16 winter wheat remain mostly favourable in the northern hemisphere. "Crops in the US and Russia suffered from adversely cold weather at times, while conditions have been mostly favourable in the EU, India and Turkey," they said. Russia's 2014/15 wheat exports were cut from 22.7 MMT to 18.5 MMT, with Europe's increased from 30.1 MMT to 31.5 MMT. Despite a cut of 0.8 MMT to production in Ukraine, exports were raised 1.2 MMT to 11.5 MMT. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales are modest at around 250-400 TMT. Mar 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.33 3/4, down 3 cents; Mar 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.64 3/4, down 7 1/2 cents; Mar 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.75 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents.



22 January 2015 | Chicago Reports
21/01/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with small gains. China bought 176 TMT of US beans for 2014/15 delivery, despite having cancelled almost 500 TMT of similar purchases in recent days. Now that the January WASDE and stocks reports are out of the way, fresh news is lacking. Celeres raised their forecast for the Brazilian 2014/15 soybean crop to a record 94.2 MMT. "Brazil soybeans have been subject to hot, dry weather in January, especially in the tropics, though the forecast is more hopeful for rain," said Martell Crop Projections. "Mato Grosso’s top soybean producing area, the centre-west, received only 40-55% of normal rainfall the past 30 days, while the centre-east was even drier with 35-40% of average rain. Much better rainfall close to average has developed in the southeast, though this area of the state produces fewer soybeans," they add. Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $9.83 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents; May 15 Soybeans closed at $9.89 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents; Mar 15 Soybean Meal closed at $330.50, up $4.00; Mar 15 Soybean Oil closed at 32.41, down 43 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around a couple of cents lower. Ukraine said that they'd shipped 8.3 MMT of corn so far this season. The USDA have exports down at 16.5 MMT, which means that they are around halfway through their anticipated 2014/15 campaign total. "Reports have it (corn) trading out of Ukraine at $6-$10 MT discount to FOB US equivalent. It’s a bearish sign that the market feels comfortable enough to continue to book offers out of the Ukraine at (only) a slight discount to US origin corn," said Benson Quinn Commodities. Today's regular weekly ethanol production data from the US Energy Dept is delayed a day due to Monday's Martin Luther King Day holiday. The trade will be scrutinising that for any sign of a slowdown in demand for US corn. Last week's production was 978,000 barrels/day, up from 949,000 the previous week. Crude oil is off the recent multi-year lows, but not by much. Analysts at the World Economic Forum in Davos are now suddenly lining up to tell us it will be a long time before we see $100/barrel again. Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.88, down 2 1/4 cents; May 15 Corn closed at $3.95 3/4, down 2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower, with Chicago faring the best of the three. The market seems surprisingly relaxed about the developing situation in Russia and Ukraine. Rather than pushing through as much of their existing wheat contracts as possible in the last fortnight of January, before the new export duty comes in, the pace of Russian shipments out of the Black and Azov Sea hardly seems to have picked up at all. There are reports that all vessels loading grain for export now must have a phytosanitary official present to obtain the necessary customs clearance documentation. This is slowing loadings down considerably as the Feb 1 export duty introduction date nears. Rusagrotrans today cut their forecast for Russia's January grain exports from 1.5 MMT to 1.3 MMT. They were 3.15 MMT in December. The Russian government meanwhile have only very limited success in securing the kind of volumes of wheat they want for their state-owned stocks via their intervention purchase programme. Morgan Stanley forecast Russian inflation at 13.7% by the end of 2015, which will encourage growers to sit on their stocks even more. Mar 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.36 3/4, down 1/4 cent; Mar 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.72 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents; Mar 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.81, down 8 1/2 cents.



21 January 2015 | Chicago Reports
20/01/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed around 8-10 cents lower, helped on their way by news of another 174 TMT worth of Chinese cancellations. News that China posted the slowest economic growth in 24 years in 2014 didn't help either. China are of course the world's largest soybean buyer by some considerable distance, importing almost 6 times the volume that second placed Europe does, and accounting for almost two thirds of all international trade in beans. Chinese cancellations of US beans for the 2014/15 season are now almost 500,000 MT. "The combination of competitive South American offers, ample supplies, tight crush margins and some issues with financing can be given credited for the recent cancellations," said Benson Quinn's Brian Henry. He said that he could see China maybe cancelling a further 1 MMT of US purchases. Weekly US export inspections are still holding up though at 1.518 MMT this week, although some think that this could be the last week that we see this sort of volume as demand starts to switch to South America. The Rosario Grain Exchange lowered their forecast for the Argentine soybean crop by 0.5 MMT to 54.5 MMT, on the back of a lower planted area. Most of the crop is in good to very good condition however, they say. Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $9.82, down 9 3/4 cents; May 15 Soybeans closed at $9.87 3/4, down 9 3/4 cents; Mar 15 Soybean Meal closed at $326.50, up $0.30; Mar 15 Soybean Oil closed at 32.84, down 55 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 3 cents higher, helped by weekly export inspections of close to 750 TMT, which was towards the top end of trade anticipations. "Late in the session corn seemed to shrug off the bulk of the bearish news in the market concerning oilseeds, currencies, and crude," said Benson Quinn. US corn exports are now running at around 30% of the USDA target for the season, versus 35% typically at this time. Opportunities to ship US corn to China remain limited, although they are buying large volumes of US sorghum. Weekly sorghum export inspections were 9.2 million bushels, of which 8.5 million was for China. Last week's sorghum export inspections were only 4.8 million, and the five year average for this time is just 1.9 million. Sorghum exports are already 50% of the USDA target for the season versus just 21% a year ago and 38% for the 5-year average. Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.90 1/4, up 3 1/4 cents; May 15 Corn closed at $3.97 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed a little firmer. Weekly export inspections were a little over 310 TMT, up 30% versus last week, although still far from impressive. US wheat continues to struggle to match more competitive offers from the likes of Europe, particularly into the North African/Middle East market. "Washington the 3rd largest US winter wheat state has received beneficial heavy rainfall recently. Waves of showers the past 2 weeks brought 1.6 inches of rainfall, 45% above normal. The wet weather pattern started in mid December. The wet weather pattern in the Pacific Northwest may reflect the weakening El Niño signal," said Martell Crop Projections. The market currently seems relatively relaxed about the situation in Russia and Ukraine, despite the fact that production problems there have sent the market soaring in two out of the last five years. Russia only managed to buy less than 7,000 MT of wheat at today's intervention purchase round, with total net purchases since Sept 30 at only 320 TMT. Mar 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.37, up 4 1/4 cents; Mar 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.77 3/4, up 3/4 cent; Mar 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.89 1/2, up 5 cents.



17 January 2015 | Chicago Reports
16/01/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed narrowly mixed, but with significant losses for the week. Talk of China cancelling 285 TMT worth of existing US purchases was a negative factor. This prompted the notion that demand is starting to switch to South America. There may have been an element of pre-weekend short-covering today after beans and meal both sustained some fairly heavy losses versus last Friday. It is also a long weekend in the US, with the market there closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Day. Some of the drier areas of Brazil are in for rain, if the weekend forecast verifies. "Mato Grosso is expecting near-normal rainfall this week, easing drought in the leading soybean state. High pressure is expected to drift eastward, opening the door for showers. Very dry conditions have dominated the state the past 30 days, with only 55-65% of normal rainfall occurring," said Martell Crop Projections. Argentina also is in for a shot at some good rains. "The forecast for the upcoming week is wet throughout Argentina’s grain belt, including the drier areas of Buenos Aires. Heavy soaking rain would be highly beneficial for developing corn and soybeans," they add. "This coming week’s export sales should be the last of the 'big' weekly sales for the marketing year as China slows its purchases ahead of its Lunar New Year holiday and shifts any new purchases to cheap South American offers," said Benson Quinn. That report will be delayed until Friday. Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $9.91 3/4, up 3/4 cent; May 15 Soybeans closed at $9.97 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents; Mar 15 Soybean Meal closed at $326.20, down $0.50; Mar 15 Soybean Oil closed at 33.39, up 40 points. For the week, Mar 15 beans were down 60 1/2 cents, with meal down $22.90 and oil shed 29 points.

Corn: The corn market closed with decent gains on the day, but still lower for the week. As with beans today's price action may have been tied to profit-taking on shorts ahead of the long weekend. Crude oil managed decent gains, and actually managed to finish the week higher than it began it for once. Ethanol prices were also higher today. Neither of those could be anything that you might call a key reversal of the recent downtrend though. Two US senators are said to have attached an amendment to the Keystone pipeline bill to alter the renewable fuel standard (RFS). The proposed amendment would remove corn ethanol from the RFS, and thereby hurting demand for corn. It is certainly no formality, indeed I would say it's highly unlikely, that the amendment will get passed however. There are however some reports of one or two US ethanol production plants starting to cut back on production as margins get squeezed. Things are looking pretty good for corn in Argentina where "the farm belt has received beneficial heavy rainfall the past 10-14 days, easing dryness in the top farm provinces Cordoba and Buenos Aires. Soaking rainfall comes at an ideal time for corn, now pollinating and filling grain. Cordoba crop conditions are much improved from 4 weeks ago," said Martell Crop Projections. The USDA reported 106,600 MT of US corn sold to unknown under the daily reporting system. Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.87, up 7 cents; May 15 Corn closed at $3.94 1/4, up 7 cents.For the week that still puts Mar 15 down 13 1/4 cents whilst May 15 fell 14 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed unchanged in Chicago, just about breaking a run of seven straight down days. Kansas and Minneapolis wheat managed small gains. All three exchanges still posted fairly sizable losses for the week though, with Chicago wheat leading the way with a weekly decline of 5.5%. Clearly the spec shorts feel more comfortable leaving their wheat position open over a 3-day weekend than they do for those of corn or soybeans. For Chicago wheat this was the lowest close on the weekly chart since the first week of November. The US dollar pushing to new highs simply isn't helping US wheat get to many international buyers, other than what you might call "very traditional" homes. Yesterday's export sales of 225,625 MT weren't great. It's been 8 weeks since the US sold more than 500,000 MT of wheat in a week, and it's been 15 weeks since we had two successive weekly sales totals higher than that amount. The US dollar has risen by 10% versus the euro during that time. Russia's new punitive export duty will be in place in two weeks time, and Ukraine look like they intend to cap wheat exports too. It's Europe that will be the most likely main beneficiary of these moves though, not US wheat. China keeps picking up the odd cargo of US wheat, but otherwise it's the usual suspects of Japan, the Philippines, Mexico and various Caribbean buyers that US wheat is left with. Mar 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.32 3/4, unchanged; Mar 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.77, up 4 cents; Mar 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.84 1/2, up 3 1/2 cents. For the week Chicago wheat fell 31 cents, with Kansas down 23 1/2 cents and Minneapolis 18 cents lower.



16 January 2015 | Chicago Reports
15/01/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans and meal closed at their lowest level since October, and are looking under a bit of pressure with record Brazilian (and if not record, then close to, from Argentina) crop on the way very soon. That said, the seasonal tendency is that beans frequently look a bit sloppy in January and February, when the lows of the year are often set. The sharply lower move came despite another round of strong weekly export sales for US beans. These came in at 1.13 MMT for 2014/15 and a further 305,000 MT for 2015/16. It will not surprise you to hear that China were the main taker in both crop years. Actual shipments themselves were also strong again this week at 1.75 MMT. The US has now shipped 31.4 MMT of soybeans so far this season, with a further 12.9 MMT of outstanding sales. That means that US exporters already have 92% of the USDA target for the season committed versus only around 75% normally at this time. Note that the current 2014/15 season is only 19 weeks old. "The fear or maybe reality of the US export trade is that it will come to a grinding halt shortly as demand is filled with fresh South American beans," said Benson Quinn. Also possibly catching traders' eyes today were weekly meal export sales of only 72,100 MT, the second poor week in a row. The December NOPA crush came in at 165.4 million bushels, which was around 1.5 million less than the trade expected. Looking ahead, US farmers will plant 88 million acres of soybeans in 2015 said Informa, that's up more than 5% versus 83.7 last year. Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $9.91, down 18 1/4 cents; May 15 Soybeans closed at $9.97 1/4, down 17 1/4 cents; Mar 15 Soybean Meal closed at $326.70, down $8.80; Mar 15 Soybean Oil closed at 32.99, up 17 points.

Corn: The corn market closed slightly lower. Weekly export sales of 818,800 MT for 2014/15 and 25,200 MT for 2015/16 were in line with trade expectations for sales of around 650,000 MT to 1 MMT. Actual shipments themselves were pretty modest though at 400,200 MT. Nevertheless, total commitments are now 63% of the USDA target for the season versus 60% a year ago and 57% on average at this time. Separately, the USDA also reported 127,000 MT of corn sold to Japan for 2014/15 shipment under the daily reporting system. With crude oil prices remaining under pressure, the sustainability of ethanol margins is under scrutiny. US ethanol values fell to new 6-year lows today. Informa estimated US corn plantings in 2015 at 88.6 million acres, up versus 88.0 million previously, but around 2 million below last year. The USDA are due to give us their first glance at US planting potential this year towards the end of next month at their annual Outlook Forum, before the traditional March 31st prospective plant report is released. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that Argentine corn planting is near 88% complete. They were unchanged on their estimate for plantings of corn for grain at 3 million hectares, down 21% from a year ago. The Rosario Grain Exchange report plenty of rain in northern and north eastern Argentina, which will help with grain filling, they said. In contrast, the south west of the country is a bit dry, they added. The Argentine Ag Ministry report that farmers there have almost 97% of their old crop corn sold, and approaching 23% of their new crop already committed versus only 7% this time a year ago. Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.80, down 1 cent; May 15 Corn closed at $3.87 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market in Chicago closed lower for a seventh straight session, after early attempts at a rally fizzled out. Weekly export sales hopes weren't high, justifiably it would seem as these came in at a humdrum 284,800 MT, even if that was up 89 percent from the previous week's disaster it was still 11 percent below the prior 4-week average. There were also net sales of 92,400 MT for 2015/16, which were mostly unknown destinations, but that isn't going to get anyone too excited. The strong dollar remains a thorn in the side of US wheat export hopes it would seem. French wheat won a second clean sweep in Egypt's tender today, with US wheat not even offered. Argentine wheat was in he line-up, but was dearer than French even before more expensive freight was added on. There were no offers from Russia or Ukraine. There was supposed to be a "memorandum of cooperation" published by the Ukraine government today, detailing exactly what they are supposed to have agreed to with the country's wheat exporters. In classic Ukraine style it wasn't forthcoming. Some reports suggested that exports in Jan and Feb were supposed to be limited to 200,000 MT each, although that January volume had already been exceeded when the supposed "agreement" was made. Confusion reigns. The Argentine wheat harvest is over at 11.2 MMT, with yields ultimately coming in lower than hoped for, said the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. Production in 2013/14 was 10.1 MMT, so this represents an increase of nearly 11% on last year. The Argentine Ministry said that farmers there still have 18% of last year's crop to sell, and that this season's production is nearing 45% sold versus 24% a year ago. Mar 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.32 3/4, down 5 cents; Mar 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.73, down 2 cents; Mar 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.83 1/4, up 2 3/4 cents.



15 January 2015 | Chicago Reports
14/01/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans and meal closed with small gains, save for the expiring Jan 15 contracts. The USDA announced 202,750 MT of US beans sold to unknown. That was split 102,750 MT for 2014/15 shipment and 100,000 MT for 2015/16 delivery. South Korea's KOCOPIA bought 50,000 MT of US beans for March/April shipment. Pakistan were said to have bought 66,000 MT of US beans, and be shopping for a further 60,000 MT from Brazil for April shipment. Chinese customs data showed that the country imported 18.658 MMT of soybeans between October – December up 5.9% from a year previously. The Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s 2014/15 bean crop at 54.5 MMT versus a previous estimate of 55.0 MMT (the latter figure being the same as the USDA's and Dr Cordonnier's current forecasts). Dr Cordonnier trimmed his view on Brazil to 93.5 MMT versus a previous estimate of 94.0 MMT. Ag Resource are higher than that at 94-96 MMT. The USDA went for 95.5 MMT on Monday. Oil World said that Brazil exported only 139 TMT of soybeans in December, down from 177 TMT in November. The harvest in Brazil's Mato Grosso is said to be 2% complete, whilst Parana state is 3% done. Tomorrow brings Informa's take on US plantings this year, plus the NOPA crush report for December and the regular Thursday weekly export sales numbers. The trade is looking for bean sales of around 600,000-900,000 MT. Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $9.92 1/2, down 7 1/2 cents; Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.09 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents; Jan 15 Soybean Meal closed at $328.90, down $20.80; Jan 15 Soybean Oil closed at $32.57, up 18 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 4-5 cents lower. Crude fell to new lows, but had recovered somewhat to trade higher by the close. The US Energy Dept reported weekly ethanol production of 978,000 barrels/day, up from 949,000 the previous week. Stocks jumped from 18.8 million barrels to 20.2 million. The USDA announced 125,000 MT of US corn sold to Taiwan for 2014/15 shipment. Israel bought 100,000 MT of optional origin corn, with Ukraine thought to be the most likely supplier. The Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s 2014/15 corn crop at 22.4 MMT versus a previous estimate of 21.5 MMT and the USDA's 22.0 MMT. Dr Cordonnier came in at 21.0 MMT, unchanged from his previous estimate. He sees production in Brazil at 74.0 MMT, which is also unchanged from his previous estimate. "Early planted corn in Argentina is subject to moisture stress in key producing areas of western Buenos Aires, northern Cordoba and La Pampa, according to a new report from Agro South. Currently 29% of corn is in the flowering stage and another 10% is filling grain based on data from the Ministry of Agriculture," said Martell Crop Projections. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 650,000 MT to 1 MMT. Mar 15 Corn closed at $3.81, down 4 3/4 cents; May 15 Corn closed at $3.88 1/2, down 5 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower, extending the recent losing streak to six straight sessions. Egypt appear to see this break in prices as an opportunity, they are back in the market with their second tender of 2015. The results of that are expected tomorrow. French wheat got a clean sweep in their last tender. US wheat remains hindered by the strong dollar, although that was a little off the highs today. Trade expectations for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are a fairly modest 350-550 TMT. They were only 151,000 MT last week, the lowest total of the season so far. Pakistan announced their intention to sell 1 MMT of their surplus wheat stocks. The Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s 2014/15 wheat crop at 12.1 MMT versus a previous estimate of 12.0 MMT - the latter also being where the USDA currently sit. Various reports out of Ukraine suggest that some form of cap on wheat exports is to be put into place. Russia's export duty announcement doesn't yet seem to be doing them much good in procuring grain for the domestic intervention fund. They only picked up 4,320 MT of grain for that today, making the total bought since September 30th just 313,180 MT out of a stated aim to buy 5 MMT for government stocks. Mar 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.37 3/4, down 10 1/4 cents; Mar 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.75, down 6 3/4 cents; Mar 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.80 1/2, down 8 cents.



14 January 2015 | Chicago Reports
13/01/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed at 6-week lows. "Funds were said to be fleeing the grains and going back to the equities in early half of the session pressuring the corn and beans," said Benson Quinn Commodities. I guess we could call also this follow through activity from yesterday's sharp decline following the release of the USDA's January WASDE and stocks numbers. Today's fall came despite news that China imported a record 8.53 MMT of soybeans in December, up 41.45% from November. January imports are estimated at 6.9 MMT, falling to around 4.5 MMT in February, which is traditionally a quiet month due to the Chinese New Year celebrations. China customs data said that the country imported 71.4 MMT of soybeans in the 2014 calendar year, up 12.65% from 2013. Dr Cordonnier reported that the Brazilian government are to extend the compulsory soybean free period in Mato Grosso state from the current 90 days to 122 days, to run Jun 1 - Sep 30, in a bid to contain the Asian Rust virus. That may help prevent the growing trend to plant two soybean crops in a season in the state, and may also push back the early harvest a little bit next season. Jan 15 Soybeans are at $10.00, down 13 1/2 cents; Mar 15 Soybeans are at $10.04, down 12 cents; Jan 15 Soybean Meal is at $349.70, down $6.80; Jan 15 Soybean Oil is at 32.39, down 6 points.

Corn: The corn market closed at 5-week lows, and well below the $4/bushel level. "Corn couldn’t follow through on the modest support experienced yesterday. Today’s price action hints at a top being formed," was Benson Quinn's opinion of today's action. The USDA announced 105,000 MT of US corn sold to unknown for 2014/15 shipment, but that news wasn't enough to save the day. Crude fell to new lows. The dollar remains firm, and recent weekly export sales continue to indicate that this is harming US export activity. Corn from Ukraine and South America is cheaper. The Ukraine Ministry said that they had exported 7.77 MMT of corn so far this season. Taiwan's MFIG bought 50,000 MT of optional origin (possibly US) corn for Feb-March shipment. Taiwan Sugar Corp are tendering for 23,000 MT of US corn. Tomorrow's weekly US ethanol production data will be particularly interesting, after last week's numbers offered evidence of the perils of ethanol trading at a premium to gasoline, with production down 23,000 barrels/day to 949,000 bpd, and stocks up 700,000 barrels to 18.8 million. After that we get Informa's take on 2015 US spring plantings due on Thursday. Mar 15 Corn is at $3.85 3/4, down 16 1/4 cents; May 15 Corn is at $3.93 1/2, down 16 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower for the fifth day in a row. Dollar strength continues to hamper US export ambitions, as indicated by the recent run of very poor weekly export inspections. Weakness in corn and soybeans didn't help today either. "Chatter regarding Ukraine limiting Jan and Feb sales to 200,000 MT made its way through the trade. Word is exporters have been asked to limit sales for Jan and Feb to 200,000 MT, while an assessment of their supply situation will be done in April," said Benson Quinn. Russia's wheat exports meanwhile are said to have dipped sharply in the first couple of weeks of January. This is partly due to bad weather, the observance of the Orthodox Christmas celebrations, and delays in getting the appropriate paperwork through. That doesn't bode well for traders trying to push through existing sales commitments before the introduction of the new export duty on Feb 1. Agritel forecast Russia's 2014/15 wheat exports at 18 MMT, which is 2 MMT lower than yesterday's revised downwardly estimate from the USDA, They said that 16.3 MMT of that had already been shipped by the end of December. Mar 15 CBOT Wheat is at $5.48, down 7 1/2 cents; Mar 15 KCBT Wheat is at $5.81 3/4, down 8 3/4 cents; Mar 15 MGEX Wheat is at $5.88 1/2, down 6 3/4 cents.



13 January 2015 | Chicago Reports
12/01/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with heavy losses following the release of what Benson Quinn amusingly called "the long awaited, highly anticipated, much discussed and over hyped" January WASDE and quarterly stocks reports from the USDA. In that, they raised US 2014 soybean yields by 0.3 bu/acre to 47.8 bu/acre. Planted and harvested acres were cut, but not by as much as expected. US exports were raised, reflecting the very strong pace witnessed so far this season, but only by 10 million bushels. The bottom line in all that, as if by magic, is that US 2014/15 ending stocks are exactly the same as they were in the December report at 410 million bushels, which is around 4.5 times what they were at the end of last season. Elsewhere, they raised their outlook on Brazil's 2014/15 soybean crop from 94 MMT to 95.5 MMT. Argentina was left unchanged at 55 MMT. China's import needs were also unaltered at 74 MMT. The bottom line on a global level is that world ending stocks were raised to a record 90.8 MMT, which is almost 1 MMT higher than a month ago and 37% up versus 2013/14. Separately, the USDA also reported weekly US export inspections of a robust 1.839 MMT. Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.13 1/2, down 38 cents; Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.16, down 36 1/4 cents; Jan 15 Soybean Meal closed at $356.50, down $7.30; Jan 15 Soybean Oil closed at 32.45, down 109 points.

Corn: The corn market closed with small gains, resisting the negative pull of crashing soybeans and lower trade in the wheat pit. The USDA were expected to reduce 2014 US corn yields from last month's 173.4 bu/acre, and they did. However, 171 bu/acre was a bigger cut than the market was anticipating. Harvested acres were left unchanged. The bottom line was a 14.216 billion bushel crop, some 133 million bushels below trade expectations and down from 14.407 in December, although still a record. US 2014/15 corn ending stocks were reduced to 1.877 billion bushels, some 6% lower than the December estimate of 1.944 billion. Global production numbers were unchanged in Brazil, Argentina, China etc. India's crop was raised 1 MMT to 22 MMT. Europe's 2014/15 corn crop was nudged a little higher to close on 74 MMT. World ending stocks came in around 3 MMT below last month's estimate to 189.15 MMT. Chinese corn consumption was left unchanged at 216 MMT. Worth noting was a 1 MMT hike in US sorghum exports to 6.8 MMT. China's sorghum imports were raised from 5 MMT to 6.2 MMT, which is more than 2 MMT up on a year ago. Weekly export inspections of just over 500 TMT weren't too impressive, and came in towards the lower end of trade expectations. The strong US dollar appears to be continuing to harm US exports, even though the USDA left these unchanged at 44.5 MMT in 2014/15. Mar 15 Corn closed at $4.02, up 1 3/4 cents; May 15 Corn closed at $4.10, up 1 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed around 8-10 cents lower across the three exchanges. "The report offered a few negative old crop features and a couple of mildly support new crop features. The negative aspects of the report are immediate, while the potential supportive aspects towards new crop will need some time to develop, if they develop at all," noted Benson Quinn. Amongst the negative old crop features were December 1 wheat stocks of 1.525 billion bushels, up from pre-report estimates of 1.499 billion. They put 2014/15 US ending stocks at 687 million bushels, up from 654 million previously. Friendlier news for US wheat further down the line came from total US all winter wheat acres of 40.452 million, which was more than 2 million below trade expectations of 42.564 million and down nearly 2 million from 42.399 million the previous year. Russia's 2014/15 wheat exports were cut 2 MMT to 20 MMT, of which more than 80% had been shipped by the end of 2014, they said. The reduction in exports is due to the introduction of the Feb 1 export duty. "The global impact on trade is expected to be minimal because other exporter supplies are abundant," though, they said. Europe, Ukraine and Kazakhstan are expected to pick up 1.9 MMT of extra wheat export business between them, the USDA estimated. World wheat ending stocks were raised more than 1 MMT to 196 MMT, which is more than 10 MMT up on last season. Weekly US export inspections of only 238,153 MT were very poor once again. Mar 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.55 1/2, down 8 1/4 cents; Mar 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.90 1/2, down 10 cents; Mar 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.95 1/4, down 8 cents.



10 January 2015 | Chicago Reports
09/01/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans and meal closed with small gains on the day, and with fair advances for the week, heading into Monday's all important USDA reports. These have actually been neutral for beans in 3 of the last 5 years, bullish once and bearish once. "Talk that the USDA could lower US 2014 planted soybean acres due to the discrepancy between NASS and FSA registered acreage data, and thereby lower production and US carryout in next Monday’s production report has triggered a modest amount of short covering this week," noted Benson Quinn. The market is expecting harvested acres to come in at around 83.04 million, versus 83.4 million in the USDA's December report. Given the strong sales and export pace of US soybeans, currently 90% of the USDA target for the season versus only 73% typically, the USDA may raise expectations for these and correspondingly lower 2014/15 carryout from 410 million bushels to around 393 million. Conab increased their forecast for the Brazilian 2014/15 soybean crop slightly from 95.8 MMT to 95.9 MMT, which is almost 2 MMT higher than the USDA's current estimate. The latter may raise that to around 94.6 MMT on Monday, with Argentina at 55.45 MMT versus 55 MMT previously, according to a trade survey. Dr Cordonnier said that some very early soybeans have been harvested in Brazil's Mato Grosso and Parana states. Harvest pace is "timid but picking up" and yields are variable, he said. IMEA estimate Mato Grosso soybeans to only be 6% harvested by the end of the month, with the bulk of activity (66%) taking place between LH Feb and FH Mar, he added. Jan 15 Soybeans closed at $10.51 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents; Mar 15 Soybeans closed at $10.52 1/4, up 4 cents; Jan 15 Soybean Meal closed at $363.80, up $2.50; Jan 15 Soybean Oil closed at 33.54, down 4 points. For the week, nearby beans were up 49 cents, with meal up $7.30 and oil gaining 156 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 4-6 cents higher, and back above the key $4/bushel mark on front month Mar 15. "In addition to profit-taking ahead of the weekend, credit position squaring and the inability to trigger selling below the 50 day moving average for today’s firmer tone. While it feels like the bulk of the trade favours going into Monday’s report positioned for lower price action, it didn’t feel like they wanted to add to that position during today’s trade," said Benson Quinn. As with soybeans, the trade is expecting a downwards revision to US 2014 corn harvested acres, and a subsequent drop in production from the previously forecast 83.097 billion bushels to around 82.765 billion this time round. In other news, the USDA reported 136,000 MT of corn sold to South Korea for the 2014/15 marketing year. They also reported 116,000 MT of sorghum sold to unknown for 2014/15, which will be widely assumed to be a continuation of China's recent buying spree. Conab raised their outlook on Brazil's corn crop from 78.7 MMT to 79.1 MMT, which is now more than 4 MMT above the USDA's December forecast. Dr Cordonnier said that the early 2014/15 corn harvest in Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul is underway, with good yields being reported. There's some talk that the US will restore the statutory ethanol mandate levels later this year, rather than reduce them as they proposed previously, which would be supportive for corn demand. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported Argentine corn for grain planting at 80.9% complete, up 7.9 points on a week ago, but 1.9 points behind last year's pace. Farm Futures Magazine estimated US 2015 corn plantings at 88.51 million acres, a drop of 2.6% on a year ago. Monday's upcoming USDA reports have been bullish for corn in 3 of the last 5 years, and bearish twice. Mar 15 Corn closed at $4.00 1/4, up 6 cents; May 15 Corn closed at $4.08 1/4, up 5 1/2 cents. Nearby Mar 15 was up 4 1/2 cents on the week.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower on the day and lower for the week. The perpetually firm US dollar remains a millstone around the neck of US wheat, as was backed up by yesterday's paltry weekly export sales total of only 151,000 MT for delivery in the 2014/15 marketing year, the lowest total of the season so far. The wheat bulls could do with some help from the USDA on Monday. Benson Quinn think that they might get it. "The focus on Monday’s report will be on SRW acreage. The trade is looking for something in the neighbourhood of 8 million acres, which would be down about 500,000 from the prior year. I am looking for the estimate to come in below that market," said their Brian Henry. It will also be interesting to see what the USDA do, if anything, with regards to their projections for Russian and Ukraine 2014/15 wheat exports and ending stocks, given recent developments there. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange cut their forecast for the 2014/15 Argentine wheat crop from 11.5 MMT to 11.2 MMT due to lower than anticipated yields, although that's still 10.9% up on year ago levels. They said that the harvest is now 95.9% complete. Talk of winterkill amongst US wheat on the Plains has been pushed to the back burner, as the details of any such damage won't be fully known for a good while yet. There's similar talk of damage having been done to crops in Ukraine and Russia too, but again details are sketchy. The Russian Ag Ministry did say last year that they would review crop conditions sometime this month, but no specific date was given. Bad weather in the region is hampering traders' attempts to get as much Russian wheat shipped out as possible this month, before the Feb 1 export duty is introduced. Trade activity out of Russia has been light this week, as most there are still on holiday until Monday. Mar 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.63 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents; Mar 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.00 1/2, down 7 1/4 cents; Mar 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.02, down 6 1/2 cents. For the week that puts Chicago wheat 17 1/2 cents lower, with the Kansas market down 16 1/2 cents and Minneapolis 9 cents easier.




Comments Archive

2015 (16)
    - January (16)

2014 (248)
    - January (21)
    - February (20)
    - March (22)
    - April (21)
    - May (22)
    - June (10)
    - July (24)
    - August (21)
    - September (24)
    - October (23)
    - November (20)
    - December (20)

2013 (254)
    - January (21)
    - February (21)
    - March (21)
    - April (22)
    - May (24)
    - June (22)
    - July (21)
    - August (21)
    - September (20)
    - October (24)
    - November (20)
    - December (17)

2012 (256)
    - January (21)
    - February (20)
    - March (22)
    - April (19)
    - May (23)
    - June (23)
    - July (17)
    - August (23)
    - September (24)
    - October (22)
    - November (23)
    - December (19)

2011 (67)
    - September (4)
    - October (23)
    - November (19)
    - December (21)