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30 June 2016 | Online since 2003
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30 June 2016 | Chicago Reports
29/06/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed lower and meal higher. Traders are jockeying for position ahead of tomorrow's acreage report. Guesses for that vary from 82.632 to 85.7 and average 83.834 million acres. The March figure was 82.236 million. A Bloomberg survey predicts June 1 US soybean stocks to be 0.831 billion bushels on average. Strong demand sees the trade anticipating another round of robust export sales tomorrow. Trade estimates for these are 500,000 to 800,000 MT of old crop, and 600,000 to 800,000 MT of new crop. Stats Canada pegged the 2016/17 Canadian canola acreage at 20.02 million acres, up from their March estimate of 19.35 million acres. Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $11.44 1/2, down 6 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $11.12 1/2, down 7 3/4 cents; Jul 16 Soybean Meal settled at $397.10, up $4.70; Jul 16 Soybean Oil settled at 30.82, down 29 points.

Corn: The corn market finished the day sharply lower. A wetter outlook for the Midwest and book squaring ahead of tomorrow's USDA report was enough to take the shine off corn. Guesses for acreage tomorrow vary from 91.5 to 94 million acres. The March figure was 93.601 million. The average guess for June 1 US corn stocks sits at 4.52 billion bushels in a Bloomberg survey. Good weekly export sales are expected tomorrow, at 700,000 MT to 1.0 MMT for old crop corn, and from 300,000 to 450,000 MT for new crop. The Arg Ag Min said that corn plantings there might rise 20% next year due to new government rules on exports, the trade think that +30% could be on the cards. Seed merchants say that sales for 2016/17 are already running at around 60-70% versus only 10% this time last year under the old Macri government. South Africa's CEC estimates the corn crop there at 7.16 MMT and 2016/17 imports at 3.8 MMT. Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.72 3/4, down 12 1/2 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.77 3/4, down 11 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower. In a Bloomberg survey, June 1 US wheat stocks are estimated to be 0.983 billion bushels on average in tomorrow's USDA report. Stats Canada estimated 2016 Canadian all-wheat plantings at 23.18 million acres this morning. That was down from its March estimate of 23.85 million acres, and smaller than the average pre-report trade analyst estimate of 23.4 million acres. Russia said that they had harvested 2.1 MMT of grains so far with average yields at 4.36 MT/ha (3.98 MT/ha in 2015). ProZerno said the country would export 34.8 MMT of grains in 2015/16 rising to 36.7 MMT in 2016/17 - the latter including more than 26 MMT of wheat. Jordan bought 100,000 MT of optional origin hard wheat at $204.50 C&F for Dec/Jan shipment. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 300-500,000 MT. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.29 1/2, down 14 1/4 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.00, down 8 3/4 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.06, down 7 1/4 cents.



29 June 2016 | Chicago Reports
28/06/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed with decent gains, but off the intra-day highs. The trade scrutinised last night's crop condition report and was concerned that soybean conditions fell significantly in some leading Midwest states: Illinois dropped 4 points and Iowa -3 points. The forecast remains largely dry. There's talk that Argentine growers are reluctant sellers of their new crop beans as the peso falls sharply against the US dollar. Jul 16 Soybeans closed at $11.50 1/1, up 17 1/1 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans closed at $11.20 1/4, up 15 1/2 cents; Jul 16 Soybean Meal closed at $392.40, up $8.40; Jul 16 Soybean Oil closed at 31.11, down 15 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around unchanged, with continued dry weather forecasts a worry. In last night's crop condition report from the USDA Illinois and Kansas dropped 4 points. Missouri dropped 3. North Dakota dropped 5 points in the good to excellent categories. Overall though the USDA left G/E unchanged when the trade was expecting a 2 point or so decline. Dollar strength is a concern for US exports. Talk of lower than projected US plantings this year also underpins a market where fund money is heavily long. A downwards correction can't be ruled out if something spooks them all at the same time though. The corn harvest in Brazil's top state of Mato Grosso is said to be 16.6% done and yields are down, production could be 23% lower than last year say IMEA. Jul 16 Corn closed at $3.85 1/4, unchanged; Sep 16 Corn closed at $3.98 3/4, down 1/2 cent.

Wheat: The wheat market closed mostly a touch lower. Fresh news was scarce. China offered 2.5 MMT of wheat from state reserves up for auction and was hardly knocked over in the rush selling only 22 TMT. US winter wheat harvesting is 45% complete and crop conditions improved week over week, said the USDA last night. The combines are rolling in Russia and Ukraine and good crops are expected there this year. I've even heard of spring barley being cut in Russia! Early yields are said to be ominously good. It looks therefore like another strong export campaign can be expected from both again this year. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.43 3/4, down 3 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat is at $4.8 3/4, down 4 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat is at $5.13 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents.



28 June 2016 | Chicago Reports
27/06/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed sharply higher. Disappointing weekend rains were he catalyst. There's precious little in the forecast for the heart of the Midwest either across the next few days. Export inspections were a seasonally poor 272,066 MT, although the USDA did also report the sale of 150,000 MT of US soybeans to unknown destinations. After the close they cut soybean crop ratings one point in the good to excellent category to 72% (63% last year). They said that 95% of the crop is emerged (91% average) and 9% of the crop is blooming (7% average). Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $11.33, up 30 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $11.04 3/4, up 26 1/4 cents; Jul 16 Soybean Meal settled at $384.00, up $8.40; Jul 16 Soybean Oil settled at 31.26, up 27 points.

Corn: The market closed little changed. A drier weekend than expected and the forecast for more of the same was supportive. Weaker wheat and lower crude weren't however. There's talk that Russian and Ukraine corn crops are developing well under near ideal conditions. The Russian Ag Min said that they'd exported 4.68 MMT of corn so far this season. The USDA said that 6% of the national corn crop is at the silking stage (5% on average) and left good to excellent crop conditions unchanged at 75%. Export inspections during the week ending last Thursday reached a better than expected 1.451 MMT, up 17.5% week over week, and 39.4% larger than the same week in 2015. It remains to be seen if the current dollar strength starts to eat into these. Ukraine seaports exported 230,600 MT of corn ast week, according to APK Inform. Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.85 1/4, up 3/4 cent; Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.89 1/4, up 1/4 cent.

Wheat: The wheat market finished lower on dollar strength and harvest pressure. The move came despite decent weekly export inspections of 511,701 MT. Whilst western European wheat may be struggling, conditions look better further east. National Bank Ukraine said that the country might harvest 60-61 MMT of grains this year, and in Russia they could bring in a crop even higher than last year it is now thought. They've started harvesting in both countries now, with the Stavropol area of Russia already past the 1 MMT mark, with early yields up 12.5% on last year at 4.42 MT/ha. The USDA FAS in Bulgaria said that the country would harvest in excess of 5 MMT of wheat this year (versus 4.6 MMT last year). Plantings were up 12% and 87% of the crop is currently in good condition, they said. This should facilitate exports in excess of 3 MMT, they added. The USDA said that the winter wheat harvest is 45% done. Spring wheat conditions fell 2 points to 72% G/E. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.46 3/4, down 8 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.12 3/4, down 10 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.14 3/4, down 11 3/4 cents.



24 June 2016 | Chicago Reports
23/06/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed lower on unease ahead of the UK vote on Europe. Weekly export sales of 660,690 MT for old crop and 661,500 MT of new crop were in line with expectations. Argentina’s Ag Ministry had raised their 2015/16 Soybean crop outlook to 58.0 MMT. Brazil’s Abiove lowered its 15/16 crop estimate 0.6 MMT to 97.3 MMT today. Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $11.24 1/2, down 13 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $11.01 1/2, down 15 1/4 cents; Jul 16 Soybean Meal settled at $383.20, down $7.80; Jul 16 Soybean Oil settled at 31.75, up 20 points.

Corn: The corn market closed lower as part of a general "risk-off" moved ahead of the UK vote on European membership. Weekly export sales of 870,744 MT on old crop and new crop sales of 550,318 MT were in line with trade ideas. Private exporters announced private exporters announced that 138,000 MT of US corn was sold to South Korea under the daily reporting system. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange increased their ideas on Argentine corn production by 3 MMT, raising that from 25 MMT to 28 MMT. Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.87 1/4, down 5 3/4 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $3.92 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower in line with the rest of the sector. Weekly export sales were fair at 462,700 MT. Better than expected yields are what is getting reported back from the early winter wheat harvest on the Plains. Japan purchased 59,150 MT of US wheat, along with a combined 60,838 MT from Australian and Canadian sources in its regular weekly tender. European wheat closed lower again ahead of the referendum results form the UK on EU membership. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.54 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.27 3/4, down 5 1/4 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.31, down 3 3/4 cents.



22 June 2016 | Chicago Reports
21/06/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with fairly steep losses for a second day, especially on new crop. Last night's crop progress report showed unchanged good to excellent conditions whereas a 1-2 point decline had been expected. Under the daily reporting system, private exporters announced that 132,000 MT of US soybeans were sold to China for 2016/17 delivery, and an additional 126,000 MT was sold to unknown destinations. Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $11.33 1/4, down 10 1/4 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $11.10 3/4, down 22 cents; Jul 16 Soybean Meal settled at $393.30, down $9.40; Jul 16 Soybean Oil settled at 31.36, down 28 points.

Corn: The market closed sharply lower. An improved weather outlook was all it took to encourage some longs to exit the market. Believe it or not, recent prices have been the highest available to the grower d=for 12 months, so some liquidation should not come a surprise. There's still a long way to go. Russia reported that their corn crop for the 2016 harvest is 93.8% planted on 2.8 million ha. South Korea's KFA are in the market tendering for 126,000 MT of optional origin corn. Jul 16 Corn settled at $3.96 1/4, down 25 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $4.02 1/4, down 24 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market finished lower across the board. Russia reported spring wheat plantings complete on 13.6 million ha, which is 103.3% of the plan. Jordan cancelled on their tender to import 100,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat and immediately re-tendered for the same, as well as 100,000 MT of optional origin barley. Algeria are in the market for 50,000 MT of optional origin soft wheat. There are reports of early harvesting having started in Ukraine/Crimea. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.58 1/2, down 14 1/2 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.35, down 16 1/4 cents;Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.34 1/2, down 9 1/4 cents.



21 June 2016 | Chicago Reports
20/06/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed with some fairly steep losses. Weekly export inspections came in at 314,990 MT. After the close the USDA cut US soybean good to excellent crop ratings one point to 73% (65% a year ago). Emergence is at 89%, up 10 points on the week and 5 above the 5-year average. Planting is 96% complete. US weather holds the key. "The forecast is hopeful for Midwest rainfall this week. A series of short-wave disturbances would track west-to-east across the northern United States, promoting periods of scattered showers and thunderstorms. These would be “hit-or-miss” showers with a 40-60% chance of occurrence. Near normal Midwest temperatures are expected to resume, as warm, humid air is suppressed by a cool Canadian air mass descending from Canada," said Martell Crop Projections. Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $11.43 1/2, down 16 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $11.32 3/4, down 15 1/2 cents; Jul 16 Soybean Meal settled at $402.70, down $4.70; Jul 16 Soybean Oil settled at 31.64, down 29 points.

Corn: The corn market finished the day with hefty losses, falling from last night's one-year high. A wetter outlook for the week ahead sparked the sell-off. Weekly export inspections of 1.235 MMT were pretty good, even if they were down nearly 28% from the previous week. Customs data shows that Ukraine seaports exported 105 TMT of corn last week, and Russian seaports only 12,7 TMT. Russia's corn exports to date this season ate 4.62 MMT. South Korea bought 328,000 MT of optional origin corn in a tender for Oct/Nov shipment over the weekend. They are also seen buying feed wheat in preference to corn. After the close the USDA said that 75% of the US corn crop was in good to excellent condition, unchanged on last week. It was generally expected to be 1 to 2% lower due to last week’s high temperatures. No figure was given on emergence which is now assumed at 100%. Jul 16 Corn settled at $4.21 1/4, down 16 1/2 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $4.26 3/4, down 16 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower, reversing most of Friday's gains. Weekly export inspections are showing signs of picking up. These were 571,724 MT last week, up from 363,803 MT the previous week and nearly 68% larger than the same week in 2015. The USDA said that the 2016 US winter wheat harvest was 25% done, 3 points behind average, but 14 up on the week. Crop conditions were unchanged at 61% good to excellent. Spring wheat conditions in the good to excellent category fell 3 points to 76%. Spring wheat at the headed stage was 28%, double the norm. Ag Canada estimated grain stocks there at 9.95 MMT versus 10.2 MMT previously, They see 2016/17 carryout at 9.38 MMT, with exports at 38.43 MMT. Saudi Arabia and South Korea bought bought wheat, and Jordan are tendering for wheat. Russia said that it's grain exports so far this season were 12% ahead of last year at 33.28 MMT, of which wheat accounts for 72.45%. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.73, down 8 1/4 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.51 1/4, down 9 1/2 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.43 3/4, down 5 cents.



20 June 2016 | Chicago Reports
17/06/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed strongly higher on the day, but lower for the week in choppy trade. The USDA reported 66 TMT of soybeans sold to China for old crop delivery and 63 TMT for new crop. They also reported 263 TMT of old crop to "unknown" along with 132 TMT of new crop to the same buyer. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated that Argentinean soybean harvest is 91% complete, with production seen at 56 MMT. Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $11.59 1/2, up 25 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $11.48 1/4, up 29 cents; Jul 16 Soybean Meal settled at $407.40, up $9.70; Jul 16 Soybean Oil settled at 31.93, up 77 points. For the week nearby beans were 18 3/4 cents lower, meal down $6.60 and oil 83 points easier.

Corn: The corn market closed higher on the day and for the week. Forecasts for a hot and dry Midwest weekend encouraged some short-covering. Tonight's close on the July contract was the highest on a front month since June 2014. The Argentinean corn harvest was estimated to be 35% complete by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, with production also unaltered at 25 MMT. Russia's IKAR said that the country might produce a 13.5 MMT corn harvest this year. Weather models Monday will decide next week's direction. A bit cooler but still little rain is what's in the latest forecasts. Jul 16 Corn settled at $4.37 3/4, up 12 1/2 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $4.42 3/4, up 12 1/4 cents. For the week that puts Jul corn up 14 cents, with Sep up 16 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed higher, helped by rising bean and corn values. Strategie Grains were unchanged on EU soft wheat production at 146.7 MMT. They see exports are only 29.9 MMT versus the USDA's all wheat estimate of 35.5 MMT. FranceAgriMer cut French wheat crop ratings by 3 points to 75% good to very good, now 10 points behind year ago levels. IKAR raised their view on this year's Russian grain crop to a post-Soviet era record 108.8 MMT (up 4 MMT on last year). They see wheat output at 34.5 MMT (record), with barley at 15.5 MMT and corn at 13.5 MMT. Saudi Arabia are tendering for wheat over the weekend. Result due Monday. The Rosairo Board of Trade estimates that intended Argentinean wheat plantings are 40% complete. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.81 1/4, up 8 3/4 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.60 3/4, up 10 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.48 3/4, up 10 cents.



17 June 2016 | Chicago Reports
16/06/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower. The move came despite the USDA reporting net weekly export sales of 816,400 MT for 2015/2016, up 8 percent from the previous week and 57 percent from the prior 4-week average. There were also new crop sales of 768,600 MT reported primarily for China (475,000 MT) and unknown destinations (185,000 MT). Actual export of 124,800 MT weren't too bright though. Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $11.34 1/2, down 21 1/2 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $11.19 1/4, down 19 1/4 cents; Jul 16 Soybean Meal settled at $397.70, down $9.50; Jul 16 Soybean Oil settled at 31.16, down 80 points.

Corn: The market closed lower. Weekly export sales of sales of 909,700 MT for 2015/2016 were down 39 percent from the previous week and 36 percent from the prior 4-week average. For 2016/2017, net sales of 178,700 MT were reported for unknown destinations (42,700 MT), Mexico (40,000 MT), Japan (30,500 MT), and Panama (21,500 MT). Exports of 1,507,900 MT were a marketing-year high and were up 27 percent from the previous week and 42 percent from the prior 4-week average. Jul 16 Corn settled at $4.25 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents;p Sep 16 Corn settled at $4.30 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market finished lower. Weekly export sales of 762,900 MT were reported for delivery in marketing year 2016/2017, which was better than expected. Exports of 351,800 MT were reported to Japan (74,300 MT), the Philippines (50,500 MT), Mexico (46,300 MT), Nigeria (43,200 MT), Guatemala (36,900 MT) and Peru (34,400 MT). Saudi Arabia are tendering for 300,000 MT of hard wheat. Algeria bought 150,000 MT of optional origin (EU/Black Sea?) wheat for new crop shipment. Japan bought US/Canadian/Oz wheat. Egypt might be back in the market soon it is thought. Sep 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.84 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents; Sep 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.68 1/2, down 6 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.38 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents.



16 June 2016 | Chicago Reports
15/06/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed lower for a third day. That came despite the NOPA crush report for May showing its members crushed a record 152.82 million bushels of beans last month. The Rosario Grain Exchange increased its 2015/16 Argentinean soybean production estimate by 300,000 MT to 55.3 MMT (USDA: 56.0 MMT). Conab lowered Brazil by 1.27 MMT to 95.63 MMT (USDA: 97.0 MMT). They see exports at 54.1 MMT (USDA: 58.75 MMT). CNGOIC estimated China's soybean imports to reach 85 MMT in 2016/17 (UDSA: 87 MMT). Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 500 TMT to 1.5 MMT over both crop years. Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $11.56, down 13 1/2 cents; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $11.38 1/2, down 10 3/4 cents; Jul 16 Soybean Meal settled at $407.20, down $1.40; Jul 16 Soybean Oil settled at 31.96, down 56 points.

Corn: The corn market finished the day reversing all of Tuesday's losses. Again, this was despite their being some friendly information about. The US Energy Dept put weekly US ethanol production at an all time high 1.013 million barrels per day, and up 7,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Russia said it's 2016 corn crop was 93% planted. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weely export sales report for corn range from 800,000 MT to 1.6 MMT. Jul 16 Corn settled at $4.29, down 7 1/2 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $4.34, down 7 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower. The Argentine Ag Min said that wheat plantings there for the 2016/17 harvest could grow 23% to 5 million ha. Production could therefore increase 36% to 15.37 MMT, with exports rising to 9 MMT, of which 5 MMT could go to neighbouring Brazil, they said. It's not out of the way, Argentina has produced and exported these sorts of volumes before. Japan tendered for 112,900 MT of wheat in it;s regular weekly tender. The origins specified are US, Canadian and Australian. Weekly export sales tomorrow are expected in the region of 250-450 TMT. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.77 1/2, down 7 1/2 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.56 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.40 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents.



15 June 2016 | Chicago Reports
14/06/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed mostly lower. Fresh news was lacking, so it looks like a bit of profit-taking/consolidation kicked in. US crop conditions are generally good and prospects are looking favourable at this early stage. The USDA reported 110,000 MT of US soybeans were sold to unknown destinations for 2016/17 delivery. Jul 16 Soybeans settled at $11.69 1/2, up 1/2 cent; Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $11.49 1/4, down 9 3/4 cents; Jul 16 Soybean Meal settled at $408.60, up $0.20; Jul 16 Soybean Oil settled at 32.52, up 1 point.

Corn: The corn market closed higher. Private exporters reported that 136,000 MT of US corn was sold to Japan this morning, with 60,000 MT of that slated for 2015/16 delivery. A few reports of hot and dry weather hurting the newly sown US crop are doing the rounds. That maybe enough to encourage some short-covering. It's still very early and US crop prospects are still good however. The prospect of a UK vote whether or not to leave the EU next week is maybe prompting some nervousness. Jul 16 Corn settled at $4.36 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents; Sep 16 Corn settled at $4.41 3/4, up 6 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower on harvest pressure. The USDA peg the 2016 US winter wheat harvest at 11% complete as of Sunday night. Unlike beans and corn there were no daily export sales to support a wheat fully aware of competitive pressures elsewhere. ABARES increased their forecast for the Australian wheat crop to 25.4 MMT vs the 24.5 MMT previously expected. One or two concerns remain over French wheat, although carryover stocks from last season are large. Quality downgrades could be the biggest threat there this year. Jul 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.85, down 6 1/4 cents; Jul 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.58 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents; Sep 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.43 1/4, down 6 3/4 cents.




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