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30 September 2016 | Online since 2003
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Chicago Reports

30 September 2016 | Chicago Reports
29/09/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher helped by strong weekly export sales of 1,692,800 MT for 2016/17 being reported for China (833,600 MT) and unknown destinations (528,800 MT) among others. Trade estimates were for sales of 1.0 and 1.4 MMT. In addition, there were also sales of 120,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2016/17 marketing year announced under the daily reporting system. The IGC raised their forecast for the global soybean crop by 4 MMT to 329 MMT, essentially due to increased production in America (now seen at 113 MMT). World ending stocks were however lowered 2 MMT to 29 MMT. Abiove estimated Brazil's crop at 101.3 MMT, with exports at 57 MMT. The USDA are 100 MMT and 58.4 MMT respectively. The USDA's quarterly stocks report tomorrow could provide further direction in this market which is trying to balance strong demand against record US production. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.50 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.56 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents; Oct 16 Soybean Meal settled at $297.90, down $1.80; Oct 16 Soybean Oil settled at 33.09, up 45 points.

Corn: The market closed around unchanged levels. Weekly export inspections of 575,000 MT were reported for 2016/17. That was at the low end of expectations of 0.5 to 1.0 MMT. Exports of 1,261,500 MT were reasonably robust however. The IGC cut the world corn crop by 3 MMT to 1027 MMT where "overly dry weather has affected crop prospects in the EU and China". They cut the EU to 59.5 MMT from 61.6 MMT previously, but still up from 58.2 MMT a year ago. China was lowered 2 MMT to 217 MMT. World ending stocks were down 2 MMT to 216 MMT. China offered another 4.7 MMT of reserve corn but found hardly any interest. Russia said that it's 2016 corn harvest was 21.2% complete at 3.2 MMT in bunker weight. Ukragroconsult lowered their forecast for Romanian corn production by 850 TMT to 8.1 MMT due to long-term drought. The size of the already large spec fund short in corn is a downside limiter for now, Tomorrow's stocks report isn't thought likely to be a "game changer" for corn, but you just never know with the USDA. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.29 1/4, unchanged; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.39, also unchanged.

Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed. Weekly export sales of 570,800 MT for delivery in marketing year 2016/17 were up 2 percent from the previous week and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. That was in line with trade estimates of 400,000 MT and 650,000 MT. Exports of 843,400 MT were a marketing-year high, up 53 percent from the previous week and 36 percent from the prior 4-week average. Japan also bought 125,800 MT of US/Canadian wheat in their regular weekly tender. There's some talk that wheat stocks could be lower than many in the trade anticipate in tomorrow's report due to increased wheat feeding as the wheat/corn price differential is relatively narrow. The average trade guess for stocks tomorrow is 2.438 billion bushels. There's increased talk of crop losses/quality damage to Australian wheat due to frost in the west and excessive wetness in the east. The IGC raised their forecast for the 2016/17 global wheat crop by 4 MMT to 747 MMT. Carryover stocks were increased 2 MMT to 231 MMT. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.99, down 4 1/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.17 1/4, down 4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.09 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents.



29 September 2016 | Chicago Reports
28/09/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower. The move came despite the USDA reporting sales of 133,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China and 211,171 MT of soybeans for delivery to unknown, both for 2016/17, under the daily reporting system. So, demand is good at these near 5-month lows. The trade is looking for this to be backed up by weekly export sales of 1.0 and 1.4 MMT for beans tomorrow. Then all eyes will be on Friday's quarterly stocks report, with old crop Sep 1 bean inventories expected to come in around the 200 million bushel mark. Palm oil futures in Malaysia were lower overnight. Northern areas of Brazil remain very dry. Things are better in the south. Argentina is cold and dry. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.45 1/2, down 7 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.52, down 6 3/4 cents; Oct 16 Soybean Meal settled at $299.70, up $0.40; Oct 16 Soybean Oil settled at 32.64, down 48 points.

Corn: Corn closed lower despite the USDA announcing a monster sale of 1,577,340 MT of US corn for delivery to Mexico under the daily reporting system. Of the total 1,036,320 MT is for delivery during the 2016/17 marketing year and 541,020 MT is for delivery during the 2017/18 marketing year. The US Energy Dept reported ethanol production up 8,000 barrels per day to 989,000 bpd last week. The average trade guess for Friday's USDA Sep 1 corn stocks figure is 1.754 billion bushels. Weekly export sales are forecast around 0.5 to 1.0 MMT. Safras reported Brazilian full season corn planting at 16% complete versus 21% typically at this time. Argentina have taken up the export baton from Brazil and shipped out a record 4 MMT of corn in August (versus only 1.54 MMT a year previously). South Korea's Kocopia were reported to have purchased 55,000 MT of US corn for Jan shipment in a tender. China are reported to have added a 10.7% anti-subsidy tariff to US DDGs imports. That's on top of the recently introduced 33.8% import duty. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.29 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.39, down 2 3/4 cents.

Wheat: Wheat closed mixed. The average trade guess for Friday's Sep 1 stocks report is a large 2.438 billion bushels. The market is hoping that the US can pick up some export interest by playing the quality card that seems to be lacking from the hands of other global exporting nations this year. Trade forecasts for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 400,000 MT and 650,000 MT for wheat. Trade gossip suggests that a problem might be looming for Australian wheat just prior to harvesting, where it's forecast to see temperatures dip below freezing in the most productive west of the country, whilst the east picks up heavy rain. The quality of the Canadian crop is also rumoured to be subpar, leading to an export demand shifting stateside, said FCStone. There's talk too that Russia's crop might be setting production records this year, but that the quality of that too is lower than normal. Argentina reported that it had exported 7.35 MMT of wheat Jan/Aug, double the volume shipped out in the same period in 2015. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.03 1/4, down 3/4 cent; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.21 1/4, up 2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.08 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents.



28 September 2016 | Chicago Reports
27/09/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed higher, recovering from the 5-month lows hit earlier in the session which triggered bargain-hunting. The USDA announced another 120 TMT of US soybeans sold to China for the 2016/17 marketing year under the daily reporting system. Still, the possibility of further yield increases from the USDA in future WASDE reports remains an upside limiter. There may have been some short covering at the lows today ahead of Friday's stocks report from the USDA and the possibility of a surprise. Old crop ending stocks are guessed at around 200 million bushels, but there's a near 100 million difference between the highest and lowest guess. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.52 1/2, up 7 1/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.58 3/4, up 7 1/4 cents; Oct 16 Soybean Meal settled at $299.30, up $1.70; Oct 16 Soybean Oil settled at 33.12, unchanged.

Corn: The corn market closed around 2-3 cents higher, correcting some of yesterday's losses in "Turnaround Tuesday" style. Spillover support came from rallying beans and wheat. Good demand also supports - US corn export inspections have been above 1 MMT for 17 weeks in a row now following yesterday's numbers. US harvest pace is running behind average but there's time to catch up. US growers are capable of harvesting 25% of the crop in a week if the weather plays ball. The EU Commission's MARS lowered their forecast for EU corn yields this year from 7.23 MT/ha a month ago to 6.84 MT/ha, although that's still more than 6.31 MT/ha a year ago. France was cut to 7.65 MT.ha versus 8.36 MT/ha a year ago and 9.11 MT/ha for the 5-year average. Ukraine's 2016 corn harvest is 15% done at 3.17 MMT. Russia's is 20% complete at 3 MMT. China offered 1.2 MMT of corn at auction today but picked up no interest. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.31 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.41 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed with decent gains. Short covering was noted. There's some talk of quality perhaps becoming an issue for Canadian and Australian wheat, but there's little hard evidence of this yet. Trade gossip suggests a shortage is quality wheat is looming this year. Some say that growers with quality wheat are hanging onto it. Others say they simply haven't got it. Japan are in for 125,800 MT of US/Canadian wheat in their regular Tuesday tender. Morocco tendered for more US SRW. Ukraine winter wheat is said to be 33% planted. Russia is about 62% done. MARS lowered EU-28 soft wheat yields to 5.63 MT/ha from 5.86 MT/ha a month ago. French yields were cut to 5.62 MT/ha versus 7.92 MT/ha in 2015 and 7.34 MT/ha for the recent average. Argentina has turned cold and dry. "Temperatures in Argentina are quite cold with widespread freezing temperatures this week that could impact some of the developing wheat crop," said Dr Cordonnier. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.04, up 8 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.19 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.02 3/4, up 8 1/4 cents.



27 September 2016 | Chicago Reports
26/09/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower on harvest pressure and demand worries. Weekly export inspections of only 383,953 MT were the lowest since July and down 30% on last week. The USDA did report the sale of 240,000 MT of US soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/2017 marketing year, but that was largely ignored today. A lean spell is likely looming for US sales when China begins a week long holiday beginning October 1st. The USDA will release its quarterly stocks report on Friday with trade ideas for beans around 185 million bushels (as of Sep 1st) versus 195 million previously. After the close the USDA left weekly crop conditions unchanged at 73% good to excellent and said that 10% of this year's crop was now harvested (13% on average). Dropping leaves is 68% of the crop compared to 64% on average. The weather is turning drier this week which should advance harvesting. Seasonal lows are frequently set early October. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.45 1/4, down 9 3/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.51 1/2, down 9 1/2 cents; Oct 16 Soybean Meal settled at $297.60, down $5.70; Oct 16 Soybean Oil settled at 33.12, down 19 points,

Corn: The market closed around 7 cents lower despite weekly export inspections of 1.335 MMT. That was nearly 65% larger than the same week a year ago. The forecast for better harvest weather across the next 10 days was however the deciding factor. The USDA said that harvesting of this year's crop was 15% complete as of Sunday night, 4 points behind the 5-year average. Crop conditions were left unchanged at 74% good to excellent. They said that 73% of the crop is mature (64% on average) and that 97% of the crop is dented, one point ahead of the norm. Early French corn yields are "confirming a disappointing season" and the harvest there might now struggle to reach 12 MMT, said Agritel. That would be more than 1 MMT below last year. High temperatures will cut this year's Romanian corn crop to "no more than" 8.75 MMT, according to one analyst. Production last year was 12 MMT. The USDA's FAS in the Philippines said that the country might produce 7.9 MMT of corn this year (7.5 MMT a year ago). Imports in 2016/17 are seen at 0.9 MMT versus only 0.1 MMT in 2015/16. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.29, down 7 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.39, down 7 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed sharply lower. Weekly export inspections of 875,049 MT were impressive (up more than 150% from the previous week) but, as with corn, largely ignored. The USDA reported winter wheat planting at 30% done, in line with the 5-year average and trade expectations. Emergence was placed at 8%, also in line with normal. In Brazil, the state of Parana's wheat harvest is said to be 22% done and quality very good this year. That would be detrimental to US export hopes. The Russian Ag Ministry increased their forecast for wheat production there this year to 71 MMT, estimating a total clean weight grain crop of 113 MMT which easily beats the post-Soviet era record of 108 MMT set in 2008. Planting for the 2017 harvest (mostly wheat) is already nearly 60% complete. Russian grain exports have thus far been slow though at 7.83 MMT to Sep 21, a 9% decline versus the same period in 2015/16. Exports were though much better last week at 747.4 TMT versus a poor 229.4 TMT the previous week. Some 595.3 TMT of that was wheat. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.96, down 8 3/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.14, down 7 1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $4.94 1/2, down 9 1/4 cents.



24 September 2016 | Chicago Reports
23/09/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed sharply lower to end the week. Continued anecdotal reports of big yields and the outlook for drier weather ahead weighed on the market. "Yield reports though are trumping any weather delays with 60 and 70 bushels yields being bandied about from MO to IA to western MN," said Benson Quinn. Palm oil was lower, and crude sharply weaker. Add in a firmer US dollar and there was little bullish news to end the week. Brazil's Mato Grosso has started soybean planting, so too has Parana where they are 3% done. Coceral estimated the EU-28 rapeseed crop at under 20 MMT compared to 22.3 MMT a year ago. The USDA are at 20 MMT, with consumption at almost 24 MMT. The weekly Commitment of Traders Report showed managed money increasing their net long position by 11,444 contracts for the week ending Tuesday night. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.55, down 21 1/2 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.61, down 21 cents; Oct 16 Soybean Meal settled at $303.30, down $4.60; Oct 16 Soybean Oil settled at 33.31, down 65 points. Versus last Friday beans were 11 cents lower, meal was down $10.40 and oil was up 133 points.

Corn: Corn closed fractionally lower on the day and for the week. Harvest pressure is a negative, with an estimated 20% of the US crop thought likely to have been cut by Sunday night. Still, unlike beans, anecdotal reports from the field on corn are of lower yields than last year. As well as talk of lower yields there's also trade gossip that the wet weather has cause quite a few disease problems this year. That seems to be limiting downside for now. So too does the size of the short held by managed money, placed at -161,592 net contracts as of Tuesday night. One talking point today was the decision by China to place a 33% anti dumping levy on US DDGS imports as they struggle to dispose of their own domestic government-owned corn mountain. Coceral pegged EU-28 corn output 1 MMT down from June, but 3 MMT above last year, at 61 MMT. In Brazil Parana state is said to be 34% planted on corn. The market is drifting along directionless for now. Next Friday, the USDA release their quarterly stocks report that could provide some direction to the market. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.36 1/2, down 1/4 cent; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.46 1/4, down 1/2 cent. For the week Dec 16 was 1/2 cent lower and Mar 17 was down a cent.

Wheat: Wheat closed little changed on the day but higher for the week. The Indian government lowered its wheat import tax to 10% from 25% as part of an effort to curb food price inflation. Some are forecasting that this could trigger imports of up to 5 MMT this season. The USDA are currently at 2 MMT. Australian and Black Sea wheat are likely to be the main beneficiaries. Ukraine wheat has been scoring on price recently. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that Argentine wheat is 49% excellent and 35% good out of a planted area of 4.3 million ha this year. Egypt were reported to have bought 240 TMT of Russian wheat in their latest tender, paying around $179/tonne FOB, or $187/tonne C&F. Coceral estimated the EU-28 soft wheat crop at 134 MMT, some 14 MMT less than their June forecast and 18 MMT below last year's record. Barley production in Europe is now seen at 59 MMT versus 61 MMT last year. That's 4 MMT below their June estimate. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.04 3/4, down 3/4 cent; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.21 1/2, up 3/4 cent; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.03 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents. For the week Chicago wheat was up 1 1/2 cents, Kansas was 4 1/4 cents higher and Minneapolis was up 11 cents.



23 September 2016 | Chicago Reports
22/09/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed with small gains. Weekly export sales were at the low end of expectations coming in at 875,700 MT, of which China bought around half (409,900 MT). The USDA also reported 240,000 MT of sales to China (of which half was optional origin) and 151,000 MT to unknown under the daily reporting system. Despite this week's sales disappointing total commitments are still running 6.26 MMT ahead of last year at this time. Early US harvest reports are encouraging. "US field reports of early harvest continue to flow in and they are consistently at or above record," said FCStone. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment found 9 bulls, 16 bears and 6 neutrals on beans. Chinese bean imports for August were 7.671 MMT. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.76 1/2, up 1 cent; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.82, up 1 cent; Oct 16 Soybean Meal settled at $307.90, down $0.80; Oct 16 Soybean Oil settled at 33.96, up 56 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 3 cents lower. The USDA reported weekly export sales of 921,900 MT, in line with trade ideas. Total season so far commitments are running 8.14 MMT ahead of a year ago helped by the lack of availability coming out of Brazil. As the US harvest gathers pace "field reports from producers are mentioning that yields are good, just not great like they were hoping/expecting," said Benson Quinn. China reported DDGS imports of 508 TMT in August, down 36% from a year ago. Corn imports were virtually zero. The Chinese government sold virtually none of the 3.6 MMT of 2013 crop corn offered up at auction today. Russia reported that it's 2016 corn harvest was now 17.7% complete at 2.7 MMT. Average yields are coming in at 5.28 MT/ha versus 5.06 MT/ha a year ago. A crop of around a record 14 MMT is now expected. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment found 3 bulls, 15 bears and 13 neutrals on corn. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.36 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.46 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed. Weekly export sales came in a little above trade expectations at 561,000 MT. Egypt picked up four sellers in their tender to buy wheat at 0.05% ergot. Sellers still appear reluctant to participate as they are not above re-introducing their zero tolerance stance retrospectively. Offers were above previous levels and appear to have contained a bit of "protection money". Results are not known yet. Brussels issued 452,000 MT worth of EU soft wheat export licences, taking the volume granted so far this season to almost 25% higher than a year ago. Russia said that it's 2016 wheat harvest was now 91.9% done at 73 MMT. Planting of winter grains (mostly wheat) for the 2017 harvest is 59.1% complete on 10.3 million ha. Jordan tendered for 100,000 MT each of hard wheat and feed barley. Chinese wheat imports for the month of August were 347,733 MT. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment found 2 bulls, 9 bears and 18 neutrals on wheat. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.05 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.20 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.01 1/4, up 6 1/2 cents.



22 September 2016 | Chicago Reports
21/09/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower despite the USDA announcing export sales of 364,000 MT of US beans for 2016/17 to a combination of China, Taiwan and Unknown under the daily reporting system. Those sales won’t show up until next weeks Export Sales report. Trade estimates for tomorrow's sales are around 1 MMT for beans. Reports of much better than expected yields coming in from early harvesting US soybean growers overshadowed that. The market is now thinking that the USDA's record 50.6 bu/acre yield projection might actually be too low. Some of today's losses may have been linked to unwinding of long beans/short corn/wheat spreads. Nov 16 Soybeans closed at $9.75 1/2, down 14 1/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans closed at $9.81, down 13 3/4 cents; Oct 16 Soybean Meal closed at $308.70, down $4.40; Oct 16 Soybean Oil closed at 33.40, down 43 points.

Corn: The market closed with just nominal losses. Some of the unwinding of spreads may have helped corn today. Weekly US ethanol production was placed at 981,000 barrels/day last week, down from 1,004,000 bpd the previous week. Lanworth estimated US 2016 corn yields at 168.5 bu/acre, well below the USDA's 174.4 bu/acre figure. Corn planting in Brazil's is making rapid progress with Parana state now 19% done versus only 4% complete a week ago. Hungary is on the way to harvesting a record 8 MMT of corn, according to a report on Reuters. Russia's IKAR raised their estimate for this year's corn harvest there from 14.0 MMT to 14.5 MMT (record), based on better than expected early yields. Harvesting of that crop is 17.5% done so far at 2.7 MMT, with yields averaging 5.27 MT/ha versus 5.06 MT/ha a year ago. Trade ideas for tomorrow's weekly export sales report on corn are 750 TMT to 1.1 MMT. Dec 16 Corn closed at $3.40, down 1/2 cent; Mar 17 Corn closed at $3.50, down 3/4 cent.

Wheat: The wheat market closed a touch higher. The USDA reported the sale of 145,000 MT of hard red winter wheat for delivery to Morocco during the 2016/17 marketing year under the daily reporting system. Reuters report that in fact they purchased 235,000 MT under a special quota deal between the two countries. Egypt rescinded their zero tolerance to ergot stance and immediately tendered for wheat for Oct 21-31 shipment under their old terms of 0.05% tolerance. The results are expected tomorrow. It will be interesting to see how may offers get put up. In Russia, wheat harvesting is 91.2% complete at 72.7 MMT. Barley adds a further 18.4 MMT (93.4%) to the mix. "The 5 day forecast has light rains for the southern plains through Saturday with a moderate to heavy system on Sunday. The 6-10 forecast continues the wet pattern for the Southern Plains during planting season," said FCStone. Trade ideas for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are modest at 350-550,000 MT. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.07 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.22 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.94 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents.



21 September 2016 | Chicago Reports
20/09/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with decent gains. Palm oil hit one year highs in Malaysia, and soyoil responded with one month highs of it's own. "As the month of September draws to an end it is becoming apparent the veg oil s/d is tighter than was previously forecast by the trade and the USDA," said FCStone. The USDA announced export sales of 110,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2016/17 marketing year under the daily reporting system. They are expected to be an active buyer ahead of the Golden Week holiday that starts on Oct 1. Wet weather in the forecast for the US will continue to delay early harvesting attempts, keeping old crop supply and demand tight. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.89 3/4, up 17 1/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.94 3/4, up 17 cents; Oct 16 Soybean Meal settled at $313.10, up $1.20; Oct 16 Soybean Oil settled at 33.83, up 100 points.

Corn: Corn closed around 3 cents higher. The fledgling US harvest is running behind schedule and the current wet weather forecast offers little chance of it making up lost ground soon. That's viewed as supportive by the market, as are US exports running well ahead of year ago levels, helped by tightness in supply in South America. China only sold 1,800 MT of the 1.2 MMT of government owned corn supplies offered up at auction. Much, if not all, of these stocks are 3-5 years old hence end user reluctance with new crop availability just around the corner. Russia said that it's 2016 corn harvest was 16.5% complete at 2.5 MMT. Ukraine's new crop corn is 10% done at 2 MMT. Final production is estimated as high as 26 MMT. Ukraine's export effort will soon switch to corn. Stats Canada estimated Canadian corn production at 13 MMT, down 2.9% from last year. December CBOT corn closed above the 50 day moving average for the first time since June 21st tonight. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.40 1/2, up 3 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.50 3/4, up 3 1/4 cents.

Wheat: Wheat closed mixed. Higher trade in corn and beans provided some support. Stats Canada came out with production numbers of 31.3 MMT for all wheat and 20.5 MMT for spring wheat. That was about what the trade was expecting. Russia's wheat harvest reportedly stands at 72.4 MMT off 90.5% of the combinable area. Yields are said to be averaging 2.89 MT/ha, up 9% versus 2.65 MT/ha a year ago. The Russian barley harvest stands at 18.4 MMT off 93.1% of plan. Plantings for the 2017 harvest are already said to be 56.1% complete. US winter wheat plantings are just getting going at 16% done, according to the USDA. Low prices and a general disenchantment with the crop could see growers plant the smallest area in more than 100 years, according to some estimates. US dollar strength remains a thorn in the side of potential wheat exports. Some analysts are predicting a Fed interest rate rise tomorrow, which won't help any. Platts reported that Indian buyers have booked around 500,000 MT of Ukraine wheat "under the radar" in the past 6 weeks as availability of state-owned supplies tightens. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.06, up 2 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.18 1/2, up 2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $4.91 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents.



20 September 2016 | Chicago Reports
19/09/16 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans closed higher on strong demand and fears of a late start to the 2016 harvest further tightening the old crop supply situation. Weekly export inspections of 755,120 MMT were good, albeit down 20% from last week, they were still 50% larger than the same week in 2015. Inspections to date are running 212% ahead of last year at 1.9 MMT. The USDA reported weekly crop conditions unchanged at 73% good to excellent. The 2016 harvest was said to be 4% complete as of Sunday night (versus 5% normally) and the proportion of the crop dropping leaves is 46% against 43% normally at this time). Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.72 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.77 3/4, up 6 1/2 cents; Oct 16 Soybean Meal settled at $311.90, down $1.80; Oct 16 Soybean Oil settled at 32.83, up 85 points.

Corn: The corn market closed with marginal gains. Weekly export inspections of 1.285 MMT were down slightly from the previous week, but 75% larger than the same week in 2015. Export pace is so far running well ahead of last year. The USDA reported US corn crop conditions unchanged at 74% good to excellent. They said that nationally the crop is 9% harvested against 12% normally. They have 53% of the crop mature, 5 points ahead of the norm for this time. The crop is 93% dented compared to 91% typically. Ukraine said that it had exported 583 TMT of corn so far this season. Russia has exported only 94 TMT. Russia's new crop corn harvest is now said to be 14% complete at 2.1 MMT. Private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 191,000 MT of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2016/2017 marketing year under the daily reporting system. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.37 1/4, up 1/4 cent; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.47 1/2, up 1/4 cent.

Wheat: The wheat market closed narrowly mixed. As expected Egypt picked up zero in their zero tolerance to ergot tender, with no offers made. Weekly export inspections came in at 562,215 MT, below both a week ago and a year ago. Russia's exports via seaports dipped off to only 229.4 TMT last week, including just 112.9 TMT of wheat. They are going to miss Egypt more than anybody as things stand. There's continued talk that despite bumper production this year (they're currently said to have harvested 72 MMT of wheat off less than 90% of the planned area) quality isn't great, which could also be having an adverse affect on exports. Another country whose exports are down in Canada. The Canadian Wheat Board put their exports so far this season (starting August) at 1.47 MMT, down 34% on the same period in 2015/16. Low prices mean than US growers will sow the smallest winter wheat acreage since 1913, according to Farm Futures Magazine. Winter wheat is currently 16% planted said the USDA. Spring wheat harvesting is 98% complete. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.04, up 3/4 cent; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.16 1/2, down 3/4 cent; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.02, down 3/4 cent.



17 September 2016 | Chicago Reports
16/09/16 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher on talk of a rain delayed US harvest. "Weather forecasts are wet weather to predominate over the US Midwest next few weeks, which threatens to delay the harvest, at a time when the new crop will soon be needed to meet heavy export demand," said Agrimoney. Central and Northern Brazil remains dry delaying the start of planting for their 2017 crop. " The USDA is forecasting a near 2% expansion in acreage with a yield the 3rd highest in 15 years. A 5 year average yield would cut Brazil’s production 3 MMT and an unchanged acreage would cut an addition 1 MMT from production. It would fall on the US to make up the difference," said FCStone. Fund buying in beans was estimated at 8-10,000 lots today. Nov 16 Soybeans settled at $9.66, up 15 1/2 cents; Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.71 1/4, up 15 1/2 cents; Oct 16 Soybean Meal settled at $313.70, up $5.10; Oct 16 Soybean Oil settled at 31.98, down 6 points. For the week Nov 16 beans were still down 14 1/4 cents.

Corn: The market closed around 7 cents higher on wet weather worries. Prices were still lower for the week overall though. "As well as delaying the harvest, the rain is raising the risk of disease in the crop," noted Agrimoney. "Diplodia is a common topic with anecdotal reports coming from the early harvest running 10 to 30% damage," said FCStone. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange estimated the recently finished Argentine 2015/16 corn crop at 28 MMT, up 1.7 MMT on last year on a planted area of 3.6 million ha. They say that planting for the 2016/17 crop is now underway in some areas and expect plantings to rise to 4.5 million ha due to recent government changes to export taxes. Brazilian analyst Safras estimate the 2016/17 Brazil corn crop at 92.3 MMT vs 70.75 MMT for 2015/16 on a significant jump in planted acres due to much higher domestic prices and a return to more normal crop rotational methods. FranceAgriMer reported that French corn crop conditions declined again this week, but this time by only the one point in the good to very good category to 54%. Harvesting of that crop has yet to begin. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.37, up 7 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.47 1/4, up 7 cents. For the week Dec 16 corn was still down 4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed higher. Egypt tendered for wheat but nobody offered due to the zero tolerance stance on ergot. There's talk that despite expecting their second largest crop ever, Australia's wheat harvest (normally Oct/Dec) could see quality damage due to the developing La Nina. "The premium of futures in hard winter wheat to those in lower-protein soft wheat hit a fresh five-month top, as US official forecast an "unusually high" spread thanks to quality setbacks in the world harvest," noted Agrimoney. "The quality of wheat in 2016-17 is likely to be much lower than the average of recent years, and last year as well," the USDA said in a report. Strategie Grains yesterday estimated the proportion of EU wheat destined only for the feed bin to rise from 29% to 41% this year. There's some talk also that the quality of this year's apparently bumper Russian wheat crop is not as good as in normal years. Russia has currently harvested 71.2 MMT of wheat off 87.8% of the planned area, along with 18.2 MMT of barley (92.3% harvested). Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.03 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.17 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $4.92 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents.




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