29 May 2015 | Online since 2003


Chicago Reports

29 May 2015 | Chicago Reports
28/05/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower, with the larger losses coming in the new crop positions. "If today’s trade is any indication of what to expect moving forward it’s going to be an uphill battle to build on any flat price rallies. Another fresh contract low was put in on the day," said Benson Quinn. The IGC released their first world soybean production estimates for 2015/16, putting the global crop at 316 MMT, a 4 MMT decline on this season's record. They have production in the US at 104.8 MMT this year (3.85 billion bushels), with Brazil chipping in with a new record crop of 97.5 MMT and Argentina producing 57 MMT. Chinese imports in 2015/16 were pegged at a new record 78 MMT. Much larger carry-in from 2014/15 than the previous year means that "with the anticipated increase in total supplies set to exceed that of uptake, world carryovers are seen rising by 9% year-on-year, to a peak of 52 MMT, including an increase of more than one-fifth in the major exporters," they said. In contrast "reflecting expectations for a smaller out-turn and tighter supplies, 2015/16 world rapeseed/canola carryovers are anticipated to fall by 26% year-on-year," they added. MDA CropCast estimated the US soybean crop at 3.823 billion bushels, down 3.6% from last year's record. They see 2015/16 production in Brazil even higher than the IGC at a new record 98.3 MMT, and agree at 57 MMT on Argentina. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that farmer selling on their 2014/15 soybean crop is at 37% versus 33% a year ago. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that rain had stalled the Argentine harvest, which advanced by less than 3 percentage points on the week to 90.3% complete, although that's still 16.5 points ahead of a year ago at this time. Yields continue to exceed expectations, meaning that final production could top their current harvest estimate of a record 60 MMT, they said. A Bloomberg survey of traders and analysts found only 2 that were bullish on soybean price prospects (the same as a week ago), 20 were bearish and 3 neutral. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are around 350-650 TMT combined over both crop years. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.26, down 1 cent; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.02, down 4 1/2 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $304.80, down $3.30; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 32.06, up 33 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 3-4 cents higher, consolidating some of the recent losses. Weekly ethanol production was pegged at 969,000 barrels/day, up from 958,000 bpd last week. This would appear to confirm that corn prices have got themselves low enough so that some idled plants have been brought back into production. There may well have been an element of book-squaring and profit-taking on shorts as we approach month-end too today. The IGC added 10 MMT to their global 2015/16 corn production estimate, which was hardly bullish. At 961 MMT, it is still 3.6% below last year's record though. Some 3 MMT of that increase came from Brazil, who's next crop was now put at 78 MMT, only a fraction below 78.6 MMT this season. China's crop was increased by 1 MMT to 220 MMT and that in the US also by 1 MMT to 332 MMT. Ukraine's 2015 corn crop was seen unchanged at 24.9 MMT, and production in the EU was pared back to 67.2 MMT. They raised global corn consumption by 5 MMT and added 6 MMT to world carryout, taking that up to 187 MMT. MDA CropCast estimated the world corn crop in 2015/16 slightly lower than the IGC at 959.9 MMT, unchanged on a week ago. They have production in the US this year at 13.802 billion bushels versus the record 14.367 billion produced last year. Ukraine's crop was forecast at 26.2 MMT and the EU's at only 62 MMT. Russia said that their 2015 corn crop was now 91% planted on 2.6 million ha. Ukraine's is now said to be just about all in on 4.2 million ha. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that farmer selling on their 2014/15 corn crop is at 47% versus 37% a year ago. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that the 2014/15 corn harvest there only advanced 1.9 percentage points for the week to 37.4% complete due to rain. That's 1.6 percentage points ahead of this time a year ago. They left their production estimate unchanged at 25 MMT. A Bloomberg survey of traders and analysts found 4 that were bullish on corn's price prospects (down from 9 a week ago), 10 were bearish and 11 neutral. Tonight's closing new crop soybean:corn price ratio is just under 2.44:1, down from 2.47:1 last night, but up from 2.40:1 only last Friday. Trade estimates for tomorrow's one day delayed weekly export sales from the USDA are around 650 TMT to 1.1 MMT for both crop years combined. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.53 1/2, up 4 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.70, up 3 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed narrowly mixed across the three exchanges. Similar to corn, the IGC added 10 MMT to their 2015/16 global production estimate, pegging the world wheat crop in the year ahead at 715 MMT. Consumption was raised by 4 MMT, taking ending stocks 6 MMT higher to 200 MMT. Production increases in 2015/16 came from the EU, up 1.8 MMT to 150 MMT, China (up 9 MMT to 127 MMT), Russia (up 3 MMT to 55 MMT) and Ukraine (up 1 MMT to 21 MMT). There were output reductions for India (down 3 MMT to 91 MMT), the US (down 0.8 MMT to 58.2 MMT) and Kazakhstan (down 0.6 MMT to 13.5 MMT). MDA CropCast estimated the global wheat crop at 711.6 MMT, down 0.66 MMT on last week. They see the 2015/16 US all wheat crop at 2.216 billion bushels, with Ukraine at 21.9 MMT and Russia at 52.8 MMT. Opinions over the production prospects of the latter in particular still vary quite widely. The Russian Grain Union are at 55 MMT, SovEcon are at 54 MMT and the USDA on 53.5 MMT. The Russian Ag Ministry don't breakdown their forecasts by grain, simply forecasting a total grain crop of 100 MMT, although the new Ag Minister is saying that output could match last year's 105.3 MMT. That would imply a Russian wheat crop of around 58-59 MMT this year. Only the government seem to think that this is the case though. They say that spring wheat plantings are past 70% done on 9.3 million ha. Ukraine say that 7.6% of their winter grains are in excellent condition and a further near 75% in good condition. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that farmer selling on their 2014/15 wheat crop is at 76% versus 53% a year ago. Argentine farmers have just about got going planting their 2015/16 wheat crop. That progress is being delayed by rain, and is only 4.3% done, up 1.5 percentage points on the week and versus 6.4% complete a year ago. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange see plantings at 4.1 million ha. Local analysts Agritrend say that plantings could fall to only 3.7-3.9 million ha due to low prices, the lack of cash and the ever-present possibility of export quota restrictions. Egypt's GASC bought 3 cargoes of Russian and one Romanian wheat for early July at prices below $200/tonne including freight. US wheat was priced well out. Tomorrow's weekly export sales total is estimate at around 200-500 TMT. Bloomberg's survey found 8 traders bullish on wheat, 9 bearish and 8 neutral. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.88 3/4, up 1 cent; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.10 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.47, up 1 1/4 cents.



28 May 2015 | Chicago Reports
27/05/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed a little bit firmer, with the best gains at the front end. Meal posted decent gains, again with the nearby's benifitting the most, and oil was lower. South Korea was in the market for soymeal, with NOFI reported as buying 55 TMT of probably South American material for Aug/Sep shipment and KFA booking 50 TMT of optional origin meal. Ongoing labour disputes in Argentina, the world's largest meal exporter, are being linked to this nearby firmness. The Jul/Aug meal spread has widened from $1.50 on Apr 30 to $5.20 tonight. "The (soybean) market was overdue for a slight bounce after shedding 51 cents from the front month July contract over the last 10 sessions," said Benson Quinn. The market is pondering what the effects of an El Nino would be. The Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology are forecasting drought in the north east, but plentiful rains in the more productive centre/west and south of the country. Current overly wet conditions spreading up from the US Plains into the Midwest are also typical of an El Nino summer. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.27, up 4 1/2 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.06 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $308.10, up $6.20; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 31.73, down 41 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 5 cents lower for a third session in a row. The USDA reported strong early plantings and good crop conditions last night. The weather forecast leans warm and wet, ideal for strong crop development. Previous years with a strong El Nino signal have seen US corn yields come in well ahead of the trendline. The market is currently thinking that this might happen again in 2015. The firm US dollar remains a problem. South Africa's CEC estimated corn production there up 0.8% from previously at 9.8 MMT, although that's still the lowest output since 2007. Russia said that their corn plantings were more than 90% complete on 2.5 million ha. The weekly ethanol production and stocks numbers from the US Energy Dept are delayed a day following Monday's Memorial Day holiday and will be released tomorrow. "The market will be expecting a value similar to last week’s 958,000 barrels per day, confirming idle plants have returned to production," say Benson Quinn. The regular Thursday weekly export sales report from the USDA is also now delayed until Friday. The new crop beans:corn price ratio has risen to 2.47:1 tonight, up from 2.40:1 only last Friday. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.49 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents; Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.55 3/4, down 6 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower. The USDA maybe surprised a few people last night by leaving winter wheat crop conditions unchanged at 45% good to excellent. The new Russian Ag Minister said that whilst the official 2015 grain production estimate of 100 MMT remains in place, he expects that target to be beaten and output to maybe come in at around last season's 105.3 MMT. That would be quite am achievement if true, given all the problems that the country has had: poor autumn planting conditions, lack of access to credit, less than ideal spring weather, high input costs etc. One private analyst said that crop losses in Southern Russia could be 15-20% if soaking rains don't arrive soon. Topsoil there is "very dry" and only light rains are in the forecast for this week, they said. The opposite is true in Kazakhstan where spring plantings are well behind due to incessant rains - around 3-4 times the norm has fallen in the May 10-20 period, according to their National Weather Service. Brazil are forecasting above average rains for the south of the country, where the bulk of the nation's winter wheat crop is grown. That could be beneficial for yields, although too much of a good thing could cause some quality issues. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.87 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.12, down 13 1/2 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.45 3/4, down 7 1/2 cents.



28 May 2015 | Chicago Reports
27/05/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed a little bit firmer, with the best gains at the front end. Meal posted decent gains, again with the nearby's benifitting the most, and oil was lower. South Korea was in the market for soymeal, with NOFI reported as buying 55 TMT of probably South American material for Aug/Sep shipment and KFA booking 50 TMT of optional origin meal. Ongoing labour disputes in Argentina, the world's largest meal exporter, are being linked to this nearby firmness. The Jul/Aug meal spread has widened from $1.50 on Apr 30 to $5.20 tonight. "The (soybean) market was overdue for a slight bounce after shedding 51 cents from the front month July contract over the last 10 sessions," said Benson Quinn. The market is pondering what the effects of an El Nino would be. The Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology are forecasting drought in the north east, but plentiful rains in the more productive centre/west and south of the country. Current overly wet conditions spreading up from the US Plains into the Midwest are also typical of an El Nino summer. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.27, up 4 1/2 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.06 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $308.10, up $6.20; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 31.73, down 41 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 5 cents lower for a third session in a row. The USDA reported strong early plantings and good crop conditions last night. The weather forecast leans warm and wet, ideal for strong crop development. Previous years with a strong El Nino signal have seen US corn yields come in well ahead of the trendline. The market is currently thinking that this might happen again in 2015. The firm US dollar remains a problem. South Africa's CEC estimated corn production there up 0.8% from previously at 9.8 MMT, although that's still the lowest output since 2007. Russia said that their corn plantings were more than 90% complete on 2.5 million ha. The weekly ethanol production and stocks numbers from the US Energy Dept are delayed a day following Monday's Memorial Day holiday and will be released tomorrow. "The market will be expecting a value similar to last week’s 958,000 barrels per day, confirming idle plants have returned to production," say Benson Quinn. The regular Thursday weekly export sales report from the USDA is also now delayed until Friday. The new crop beans:corn price ratio has risen to 2.47:1 tonight, up from 2.40:1 only last Friday. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.49 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents; Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.55 3/4, down 6 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower. The USDA maybe surprised a few people last night by leaving winter wheat crop conditions unchanged at 45% good to excellent. The new Russian Ag Minister said that whilst the official 2015 grain production estimate of 100 MMT remains in place, he expects that target to be beaten and output to maybe come in at around last season's 105.3 MMT. That would be quite am achievement if true, given all the problems that the country has had: poor autumn planting conditions, lack of access to credit, less than ideal spring weather, high input costs etc. One private analyst said that crop losses in Southern Russia could be 15-20% if soaking rains don't arrive soon. Topsoil there is "very dry" and only light rains are in the forecast for this week, they said. The opposite is true in Kazakhstan where spring plantings are well behind due to incessant rains - around 3-4 times the norm has fallen in the May 10-20 period, according to their National Weather Service. Brazil are forecasting above average rains for the south of the country, where the bulk of the nation's winter wheat crop is grown. That could be beneficial for yields, although too much of a good thing could cause some quality issues. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.92 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.20 3/4, down 13 1/2 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.56 1/4, down 7 1/2 cents.



27 May 2015 | Chicago Reports
26/05/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with small losses. The USDA reported weekly export inspections of 291,192 MT, which was above trade expectations and a pretty impressive number for this time of year. Shipments now only have to average around 153,377 MT a week to meet the USDA year-end-estimate, said Benson Quinn. Despite that "at this point, bearish fundamentals and a strong dollar seem like enough to keep momentum pointed lower," they added. The USDA reported US soybean plantings at 61% complete, up from 45% a week ago and versus the 5-year average pace of 55% done. They said that 32% of the crop was emerged compared to 13% last week, 23% a year ago and 25% for the 5-year average. They are expected to release their first crop condition ratings for beans next week. Canada said that they'd exported 6.8 MMT of canola so far this season, a 3% rise on a year ago. Their soybean exports are at 2.3 MMT, a 7% increase compared with 12 months previously. In Europe, MARS estimate rapeseed yields this year at 3.42 MT/ha, up from 3.35 MT/ha previously. That's 4.8% down on a year ago but 9.4% above the 5-year average. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.22 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.04 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $301.90, down $2.30; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 32.14, up 50 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 4-5 cents lower. There is a strong seasonal trend for corn to close lower the day after the Memorial Day holiday, some said. That certainly proved to be the case again today. Weekly export inspections topped 1 MMT, but season to date shipments are still 1.776 MMT behind year ago. The USDA reported US corn plantings at 92% done, in line with trade estimates. That was up from 85% complete a week ago and 4 points ahead of the 5-year average. In their first crop ratings of the season they pegged 74% of the crop in good to excellent condition. "This compares to a five year average of 75% and an all-time high of 81% in 1991," noted Benson Quinn. Whilst that's a very decent number, it maybe wasn't as high as some were expecting. Emergence was pegged at 74% versus 56% a year ago and 62% for the 5-year average. Russia said that it's corn crop was 88% planted on 2.5 million ha. An El Nino related drought may be causing some damage to corn in the Philippines, it is said. The EU Commission's MARS unit forecast corn yields here at 7.22 MT/ha, unchanged from a month ago. That's 8.9% down on a year ago but 3.3% above the 5-year average. They see corn yields in Ukraine at 5.60 MT/ha which is 7% down on last year and 1.3% below the 5-year average. "Heavy rainfall in southern and eastern Ukraine replenished the water-depleted soils in the south but slightly delayed the sowing of spring crops," they said. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.55, down 5 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.73 1/4, down 4 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed sharply lower. Weekly export inspections of 418,376 MT were fairly decent. Weekend rains continued to cause flooding in parts of Oklahoma and Texas, yet the USDA left winter wheat conditions unchanged from last week at 45% good to excellent. They said that 77% of the crop was headed versus 68% a week ago and 67% for the 5-year average. Spring wheat planting was estimated at 96% done versus only 79% for the 5-year average. Emergence is at 80% compared to only 54% on average. Good to excellent crop conditions in spring wheat were raised from 65% a week ago to 69%. Canada said that they'd exported 13.3 MMT of wheat (excluding durum) so far this season, a 5% increase on a year ago. Durum exports are up 12% at 4.1 MMT, and barley shipments are 2% higher at 1.1 MMT. MARS raised their estimate for EU-28 soft wheat yields this year to 5.93 MT/ha, down 2.4% on a year ago but 4.8% above the 5-year average. Potential yields in the UK and France were increased, and Germany's left unchanged. Iraq tendered for at least 50 TMT of wheat. South Korea bought 69 TMT of feed wheat and Japan are in the market for their regular 100 TMT or thereabouts combo of US, Canadian and Australian wheat. Russia said that it's 2015 spring wheat crop was 62.6% sown on 8.2 million ha. The weather there has turned hot and dry. Not so in Kazakhstan, where torrential rains mean that they've only sown 3.24 million ha of spring grains so far, two and a half times less than 8.14 million ha this time last year. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.93 1/2, down 21 3/4 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.24 1/2, down 22 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.53 1/4, down 15 1/2 cents.



23 May 2015 | Chicago Reports
22/05/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower on the day, and for the week, setting fresh contract lows. Midwest weather forecasts lean warm and wet, offering little in the way of threat. The USDA reported 109,400 MT of new crop soymeal sold to Thailand under the daily reporting system today. The US are on holiday on Monday for Memorial Day, so the regular weekly crop progress report from the USDA is delayed until Tuesday. The trade is expecting US soybean plantings to have reached 55-60% done. Beans look like they are lining up to test the September front month low around the $9.10 area, before possibly staging a push below $9/bushel. "A minor correction to the upside in soybeans isn’t out of the question. Sustaining a rally, absent a weather scare, seems impossible at this point," said Benson Quinn. Rabobank forecast soybean prices at $8.90 in Q4 of 2015 and $8.80 in Q1 of 2016. The USDA's forecast of a 2015 US soybean area of 84.6 million acres could be exceeded given the strong early pace of plantings, they said. They suggest that the final planted area could be 1 million acres more than this, which is exactly the number quoted by Lanworth earlier in the week. Yields however might only average 45 bu/acre, which is a bushel less than the USDA estimated earlier in the month, say Robobank. They see meal prices at $295 in Q4 of this year, before gradually rising in the first half of 2016. The commitment of traders report shows fund money sitting on a record soybean short of over 90k contracts as of Tuesday night, and they are thought likely to have extended that position since, having been an estimated net seller of around 8,000 lots today alone. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.24 1/4, down 14 1/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.07, down 11 1/2 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $304.20, up $0.10; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 31.64, down 61 points. For the week that puts front month beans 29 cents lower, with meal up 90 cents and oil down 143 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 4-5 cents lower on the day and for the week. "A private but respected analyst pumped his new crop domestic estimate to 170 bushels per acre citing the emergence of El Nino," said Benson Quinn. The USDA were at 166.8 bu/acre earlier in the month. Rabobank are neutral to slightly bullish on corn, forecasting prices at $3.80/bushel at the end of the year, rising modestly to $3.90 in Q1 and $4.00 in Q2 of 2016. That's about where the market forward prices are already. They see US plantings this year at 89.2 million acres, a bit less than Lanworth's 89.5 million estimate, and exactly in line with the USDA. They currently only project US yields at a conservative 163 bu/acre, but concede that if the weather co-operates and anything above the USDA's 166.8 bu/acre estimate is achieved, then prices could fall below $3.50/bushel. The USDA will report on corn planting progress on Tuesday, with a figure somewhere in the low 90's expected. They are also likely to give us their first corn crop ratings of the season, with expectations being that a high, possibly record high, proportion of the crop to be in good to excellent condition. Tonight's closes put the new crop soybean:corn price ratio at 2.40:1 versus 2.43:1 a week ago. Russia reported corn plantings there at 84.5% complete on 2.4 million hectares. Ukraine's corn planting is now just about finished. Reuters report that China imported 605,438 MT of DDGs in April, the largest volume since September 2014, and more than double the amount shipped in during March. "We expect monthly imports would stay at about this level until September," Shanghai-based JC Intelligence said. CNGOIC report that China only imported 140,837 MT of corn last month. with Ukraine (around 94,800 MT) and Russia (37,800 MT) the largest suppliers. They are also importing large volumes of sorghum as a corn replacement too. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.60, down 5 cents; Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.66 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents. For the week Jul 15 was 5 1/2 cents easier.

Wheat: The wheat market closed lower on the day but higher for the week. US weather forecasts on the Plains are now less wet than they were for next week. Whilst US wheat exports struggle, Europe's are flying with another 647 TMT worth of soft wheat export licences granted this week, taking the season to date total to 29.1 MMT, more than 12% ahead of last season's record pace. EU barley exports meanwhile are more than 50% ahead of where they were this time a year ago at a cumulative 8.4 MMT. The USDA did however report the sale of 101,950 MT of US wheat for delivery to Taiwan during the 2015/16 marketing year under the daily reporting system today. Rabobank said the the current US wet weather concerns are unlikely to provide the wheat market with long-term support. "The fundamental situation has not changed, 2014/15 US wheat stocks will be big, given the sluggish export pace, and 2015/16 stocks are forecast to build further," they said. They forecast Chicago wheat prices at $5.20/bushel in Q4 of this year, rising modestly to $5.30/bushel in Q1 and Q2 of 2016. Both are below the levels where the market is currently at. They see Russia's 2015/16 wheat crop at 54-55 MMT and exports at more than 20 MMT. They see production in Ukraine at 22-23 MMT and exports at around 11 MMT. Strong competition once more from the Black Sea region will trim EU exports back to around 30 MMT next season, they predict. Production in Europe is estimated at 149 MMT. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange forecast Argentine wheat plantings at 4.1 million hectares this year, a decline of around 7% on last year. As expected tonight's commitment of traders report shows fund money exiting some of their hefty short bets on wheat for the week through to Tuesday. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.23, down 6 1/2 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.57, down 10 3/4 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.80, down 9 1/4 cents. For the week, CBOT wheat was up 12 cents, with KCBT 15 1/4 cents higher and MGEX adding 18 3/4 cents.



22 May 2015 | Chicago Reports
21/05/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans continue to grind a little lower on good planting progress and a non-threatening Midwest weather forecast. Weekly export sales were OK on old crop at 165,500 MT but a disappointment on new crop (again) at only 77,500 MT. Expectations had been for sales of 150,000–350,000 MT on new crop beans, according to Benson Quinn yesterday. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that the Argentine soybean harvest had now reached 87.5% complete, up 8 points on the week and 17.6 points ahead of this time last year. They left their production estimate unchanged at a record 60 MMT. Brazil's Agroconsult raised their forecast for this year's Brazilian crop from 95.8 MMT to a new record 96.1 MMT. The USDA are currently only at 94.5 MMT. Celeres estimate the Brazilian crop at 94.7 MMT. MDA CropCast were unchanged on their forecast for the world soybean crop in 2015/16 at 302.7 MMT, and also held steady on US production prospects at 3.823 billion bushels versus the USDA's 3.85 billion estimate. Lanworth estimated the 2015 US soybean area at 85.6 million acres, which is 1 million above the USDA. Brazil, China and Peru are said to have agreed to a feasibility study to construct a "mega railroad" from Porto do Açu, a Brazilian Atlantic port near Santos, to Peru’s Puerto Ilo on the Pacific Ocean - a distance of around 3,300 miles. The aim is to reduce shipping costs of soybeans and other goods to China. It will doubtless meet with conservation and other issues/objections. The project is estimated to cost $10 billion, and would take 6 years to construct, officials say. A Bloomberg survey of traders and analysts across the globe found only two that were bullish on soybean price prospects, 21 were bearish and 11 neutral. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.38 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.18 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $304.10, down $0.40; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 32.25, up 5 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 5 cents higher. Weekly export sales of 812,600 MT for delivery in 2014/15 were up noticeably from the previous week and 12 percent above the prior 4-week average, said the USDA. They also reported new crop sales of 80,700 MT, including one cargo for China. Expectations had been 400,000–600,000 MT on old crop, and 50,000–200,000 MT new crop, so these numbers were supportive. Private exporters also reported a sale to unknown destinations under the daily reporting system of 152,400 MT for delivery in the 2014/15 crop year, and a further 50,800 MT for 2015/16 delivery, adding further help today. A firmer once more wheat market probably also helped today. Short covering and profit taking was noticeable on the day, said Benson Quinn. However "near perfect forecasts and a crop planting close to completion will continue to weight on this market moving forward. Expectations are for a record high crop condition rating next week," they added. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that the Argentine corn harvest was now 35.5% done, and held steady with their estimate for a crop of 25 MMT. MDA CropCast were unchanged on their world corn production forecast in 2015/16 at 959.9 MMT, and pegged the US crop also unchanged from a week ago at 13.8 billion bushels. The USDA are currently at 13.63 billion. Lanworth estimated US corn plantings at 89.5 million acres, which is 300,000 more than the USDA. They said that China's 2015 corn crop "would not exceed 230 MMT" - which would be a record. The USDA are currently at 228 MMT (also a record). MDA CropCast are at 224.1 MMT. Ukraine said that it had planted 4.1 million hectares of corn so far, which is above some analysts estimates for the full planted area this year. CBGOIC said that China would import a record 9 MMT of sorghum this year, of which 7.4 MMT would come from the US. Sorghum imports last year were only 4.16 MMT, so that volume will more than double, they predict. Celeres estimated the Brazilian corn crop at just over 81 MMT versus the USDA's 78 MMT. A Bloomberg survey of traders and analysts found 9 that were bullish on corn's price prospects, 14 were bearish and 11 neutral. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.65, up 5 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.82 1/4, up 5 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed with good gains. Extreme wetness on the Plains, with the prospect of plenty more to come, has nervous shorts scurrying for the exits. We will find out just how short they still are, or at least were as of Tuesday night, with tomorrow's commitment of traders report. Dryness in western Canada and southern Russia is also starting to grab a few headlines. India is said to be buying Australian wheat to bring up the quality of their own rain/hail damaged crop. They could import the more wheat this year than they have since 2010, it is said. MDA CropCast lowered their forecast for the world wheat crop by 1.37 MMT to 712.3 MMT, which is 6.6 MMT below the USDA. The reason for the cut was China, who's crop was pared back to 127.5 MMT, some 2.5 MMT below the USDA. China can suffer some crop losses in an El Nino year. MDA CropCast estimated the US winter wheat crop at 1.567 billion bushels, with all wheat production at 2.216 billion. The USDA are only at 2.087 billion at the moment. Lanworth threw in a curveball with an estimate of 60.7 MMT for Russian wheat production this year, which is much higher than other trade estimates. The USDA are only at 53.5 MMT presently. Lanworth were also well above the USDA on Canada at 31.2 MMT and Ukraine at 23.2 MMT, although they were a bit lower on Europe at 150 MMT. Weekly US export sales came in at 74,400 MT on old crop, with just two weeks of the marketing year remaining. New crop sales were however pretty modest at only 128,200 MT. Actual shipments were 370,000 MT were up 24 percent from the previous week, but down 15 percent from the prior 4-week average. Cumulative season exports now stand at 21.44 MMT versus a USDA forecast of 23.2 MMT. The strong US dollar, and the outlook for that to continue in 2015/16 will make finding foreign sales a challenge for the US. A Bloomberg survey of traders and analysts found 17 that were bullish on wheat's price prospects, 11 were bearish and 6 were neutral. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.22, up 9 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.57 3/4, up 12 3/4 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.78 1/4, up 10 cents.



21 May 2015 | Chicago Reports
20/05/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower, setting fresh contract lows in many positions. Good planting progress and a "warm and wet" US weather forecast keep the pressure to the downside. The strong US dollar isn't helping either. The Argentine Ag Ministry estimated growers there to be 35.6% sold on their 2014/15 soybeans, up from 30% sold this time last year. Chinese cash soymeal prices are said to be near a 5 year low, which could keep a lid on their bean imports. The trade is expecting weekly export sales tomorrow to be 100,000–250,000 MT on old crop and 150,000–350,000 MT on new crop beans, according to Benson Quinn. It will be interesting to see if they manage to come in at those levels, given the recent resurgence of the US dollar. Sales last week came in at 136,600 MT on old crop and only a modest 88,000 MT on the new crop. The old crop sale of 132,000 MT of soybeans for delivery to China reported on Tuesday is only likely to show up in next week's report. The new crop soybean:corn price ratio ended the day at 2.44:1 versus 2.43:1 yesterday. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.41 1/4, down 5 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.19 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $304.50, down $2.60; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 32.20, up 2 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 2-3 cents lower. The same factors that are grinding soybean prices lower also apply to corn: excellent planting progress, largely ideal weather conditions, and the firm US dollar. "The first national crop ratings report is expected next week. Initial estimates are anticipating reported ratings near record high levels," said Benson Quinn. "The US Climate Prediction Centre now predicts an 80% chance of a full-fledged El Nino in the summer months. Very heavy Midwest rainfall is associated with the El Nino in summer. The last time the El Nino signal was this strong was in the summer of 2009 a year in which the US corn yield excelled, finishing 8% above trend. Another El Nino in the summer of 2004 promoted an even higher corn yield 13% above trend," said Martell Crop Projections. The Argentine Ag Ministry estimated growers there to be 44.8% sold on their 2014/15 corn, up from 36.2% sold this time last year. The weekly ethanol grind from the US Energy Dept was friendly, coming in at 958,000 barrels/day, a sharp jump from 912,000 bpd the previous week. South Korea's Kocopia tendered for 55,000 MT of optional origin corn. Trade forecasts for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are at 400,000–600,000 MT on old crop, and 50,000–200,000 MT new crop Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.60, down 2 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.77 1/4, down 3 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed mostly a little higher. Extreme wetness continues to hit winter wheat that's ready for harvesting on the Plains. Oklahoma City has already had its second wettest May on record, with more than 10 days of the month still left to go, picking up almost 14 inches of rain so far this month. Ditto Lincoln, Nebraska with over 10 inches. US spring wheat hasn't got off to a great start in some states either. "North Dakota received 2-4 times the normal rainfall in the past 10 days, capped off by a hard freeze May 18th and 19th. Approximately half of the state’s spring wheat had sprouted and emerged, when freezing temperatures developed," said Martell Crop Projections. The suddenly warmer forecast will be most welcomed there. Both the Ukraine and Russian Ag Ministries remain bullish on their crop production prospects this year. Ukraine today raised their 2015 grain crop forecast by 2 MMT to 60 MMT, with wheat up 1 MMT to 21 MMT. Russia are standing firm at a 100 MMT grain crop despite spring planting delays. The Argentine Ag Ministry estimated growers there to be 73.8% sold on their 2014/15 wheat, up from 51.7% sold this time last year. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales are zero on old crop and maybe 300,000-400,000 TMT on new crop. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.20, up 1 1/2 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.55, up 4 1/2 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.78 3/4, up 3 1/4 cents.



20 May 2015 | Chicago Reports
19/05/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower, with new crop Nov 15 posting a lifetime contract low. US plantings are going well, the Midwest has had plenty of moisture, and a warmer forecast for next week should be just what newly planted beans need. With corn planting already winding sown, bean sowings might also move it up a notch this week, it is thought. The usual Monday weekly export inspections numbers were delayed due to "technical difficulties" yesterday. The USDA released them today instead, and for beans they came in at 341,097 MT - a respectable total given the time of year and the large volume of old crop already exported. To add a bit more support to the old crop picture the USDA also today reported 132,000 MT of US beans sold to China for 2014/15 delivery. China's CNGOIC said that soybean production there will fall for the fifth season in a row this year, down 7% to 11.2 MMT. Ongoing strikes in Argentina should be a little supportive, but the sharply firmer US dollar isn't. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.46 1/4, down 8 1/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.23 1/2, down 11 1/2 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $307.10, down $0.90; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 32.18, down 60 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 5-6 cents easier. Lower wheat prices didn't offer any support, and neither did the higher US dollar. Weekly export inspections of 1.1 MMT were pretty decent though. Fund money was given credit for being a net seller of around 6-7,000 lots on the day. "They are plenty short the market, but I don’t see a catalyst to move them off their short position at this point. It would take a weather scare, which certainly isn’t imminent right now," said Benson Quinn. Lower crude oil prices were another negative today, so too is the US bird flu epidemic. Low US DDGs prices could also be impacting on feed demand for US corn, it is said. Russia said that it's 2015 corn crop was 82% planted on 2.3 million ha, which is 0.1 million higher than this time last year. Germany's 2015 corn area was estimated marginally higher than a year ago at 482k ha, according to their Stats Office. DRV estimated Germany's corn crop at 4,83 MMT, a 6.1% decline on a year ago however. FranceAgriMer pegged French corn plantings at 1.64 million ha, a 6.4% fall versus last year. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.62, down 6 cents; Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.69 1/4, down 6 cents. The new crop soybean:corn price ratio closed at 2.43:1 tonight, which is around the middle of the recent range.

Wheat: The wheat market closed sharply lower in "Turnaround Tuesday" style. A sharply higher US dollar was probably the catalyst, as heavy rains continue to be in the forecast for the US Plains. Maybe the fact that the USDA raised good to excellent wheat crop ratings last night was also another bearish influence today. Weekly export inspections of 309,562 MT were in line with what we've been used to recently, if not very inspiring. The marketing year is almost over for US wheat, and a couple of strong weeks are needed to stand a chance of hitting USDA targets for the season. Russian spring wheat is 42% planted on 5.6 million ha, which is 1.1 million less than this time last year. Kazakhstan's spring grains are 8.8% planted on 1.28 million ha. The German Stats Office estimated the winter wheat area there up 3% at 3.25 million ha. Germany's DRV increased their forecast for the 2015 German soft wheat crop by more than 1 MMT to nearly 27.8 MMT, although that's still 3% down on a year ago. FranceAgriMer raised their forecast for French winter wheat plantings to 5.16 million ha, up 3.3% on last year. Oman bought 60,000 MT of Russian 12.5% milling wheat in a tender at levels said to be at least $30/tonne below US offered levels. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.10 1/4, down 11 1/2 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.40, down 15 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.64 1/4, down 10 1/4 cents.



19 May 2015 | Chicago Reports
18/05/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed with small gains. Oil World estimated global 2014/15 soybean ending stocks at an ample 87.7 MMT, which would take total soybean availability in 2015/16 to a plentiful 399 MMT, they said. The USDA estimated that 45% of the US 2015 soybean crop was now in the ground, in line with trade forecasts. That was up 14 points on a week ago and this time last year, and also 9 points ahead of the 5-year average. Emergence was placed at 13% versus 8% a year ago and 12% for the 5-year average. Argentine labour disputes remain a positive, although it's unclear how much, if any, business is being redirected to the US. The expanding bird flu epidemic in the US is a negative. So too is a firmer US dollar. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.54 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents; Nov 15 Soybeans closed at $9.35, up 1/2 cent; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $308.00, up $4.70; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 32.78, down 29 points.

Corn: The corn market closed around 2-3 cents firmer. The USDA pegged corn plantings at 85% complete, up 10 points on a week ago and the 5-year average. Emergence is at 56% versus 29% a week ago, 32% a year ago and 40% for the 5-year average. All that was pretty much in line with expectations. US weather remains generally non threatening, although there's some talk of frost for one or two areas damage is likely to be very limited. Wheat was supportive for corn today too. South Korea bought 63 TMT of optional origin corn for Oct/Dec shipment over the weekend. The Ukraine Stat Stats Service estimate May 1 corn stocks there at 6.8 MMT. APK Inform said that Ukraine's corn exports via seaports fell to only 85.9 TMT last week. Russia said that it's season to date corn exports were down from 3.72 MMT a year ago to 2.54 MMT. AgroInfoMarket cut their forecast for Spanish corn production this year to 10.81 MMT and raised their estimate for corn imports by 200 TMT to 5.95 MMT, of which 2.1 MMT will come from Ukraine and 1.4 MMT from France, they predict. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.68, up 2 1/2 cents; Dec 15 Corn closed at $3.85 3/4, up 3 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed with double digit gains as heavy rains pounding the Southern Plains sparked some short-covering. Fund money was still short over 100k lots in Chicago wheat as of Tuesday night, Friday's Commitment of Traders report revealed. India's wheat imports may jump to as much as 2 MT in 2015/16 from only 45,000 MT a year previously as millers there seek better quality material to blend in with their own rain damaged crop, according to a report on Bloomberg. There's talk of a hot and dry pattern developing for Russian wheat, which is adding to market jitters, although it's not really here yet. The USDA raised US winter wheat crop conditions by 1% in the good to excellent category to 45%, much better than only 29% a year ago. They said that 68% of the crop is headed versus 55% a year ago and 56% for the 5-year average. Spring wheat planting has now advanced to 94% done versus only 65% on average. Spring wheat emergence is at 67% versus only 38% on average. South Korea bought 90 TMT of Australian hard wheat for October shipment over the weekend. Sep 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.29 1/4, up 11 3/4 cents; Sep 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.64 1/2, up 13 1/4 cents; Sep 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.86, up 13 1/4 cents.



16 May 2015 | Chicago Reports
15/05/15 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower on the day and for the week. Tuesday's WASDE report, and more specifically the forecast 500 million bushels US carryout at the end of the 2015/16 continue to weigh on the market. Even a record large for the month of April NOPA soybean crush of 150.3 million bushels couldn't help beans close in positive territory today. That was well above the average trade estimate of 148.2 million bushels according to a Bloomberg survey and also more than 13% up on 132.7 million in April 2014. It was also 10 million bushels higher than the previous April record crush set in 2008. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that the Argentine soybean harvest was approaching 80% complete, and held steady with their forecast for a record 60 MMT crop, that's 1.5 MMT more than the USDA's revised forecast released Tuesday. Beans tested $9.50 on the Jul 15 contract, which just about held. We've only had two front month closes below that level since the market set 4-year lows back in late September/early October. The new crop soybean:corn price ratio finished the week at 2.44:1 - down from the 7-month high of 2.53:1 set prior to Tuesday's USDA numbers. The trade will be looking to Monday for the regular weekly export inspections report and to see how much progress has been made with planting soybeans this past week. US farmers were 31% done with soybeans a week ago, that should have edged up somewhere into the 40's this week, it is thought. Ukraine's Ag Ministry said that the country is 84% planted on both sunflower and soybeans at 3.86 million ha and 1.58 million ha respectively. Jul 15 Soybeans closed at $9.53 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents; Aug 15 Soybeans closed at $9.46 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents; Jul 15 Soybean Meal closed at $303.30, up $1.10; Jul 15 Soybean Oil closed at 33.07, down 27 points. On a front month basis beans fell 31 1/4 cents during the course of the week, meal was down $11.90 and oil grained 27 points. Managed money has a net short on beans of over 50k contracts as of Tuesday night, today's Commitment of Traders report shows.

Corn: The corn market closed a couple of cents or so lower on the day, with little in the way of fresh news. Ukraine said that its corn crop was now 87% planted on 3.89 million ha. The Ukraine Ministry said that the country had exported 15.4 MMT of corn so far this season. APK Inform said that they expect full season Ukraine corn exports down 3.9% year on year at 19 MMT. Zambia's Ag Ministry said that dry weather will cut their 2015 corn harvest by 21% to 2.6 MMT. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that the Argentine corn harvest was a third done, and forecast production unchanged from a week ago at 25 MMT. The French corn crop was reported at 92% sown as of Monday, up 10 points in a week and 4 points ahead of this time last year. Taiwan was said to have bought 130,000 MT of Brazilian corn for Jun/Aug shipment in a tender. There's talk of a Chinese "clampdown" on sorghum imports, in an effort to create a bit more demand for its own burdensome domestic corn stocks. Some analysts estimate these at 20 MMT more than Tuesday's official USDA figure of 80 MMT as at the end of 2014/15. An Australian sorghum shipment to China has apparently been rejected this week due to the presence of a thing called Johnsongrass - one of the most troublesome of perennial grasses. Johnsongrass hybridizes with grain sorghum and, under certain conditions, the leaves can produce toxic amounts of hydrocyanic acid, which can poison livestock when ingested. This looks reminiscent of the sudden rise in rejections of US corn shipments to China more than a year ago which suddenly brought that trade to a halt. The market is expecting that US 2015 corn planting could be as much as 90% done in Monday night's report from the USDA. Planting last week was 75% complete versus the 5-year average pace of only 57% done. There's some talk of a frost risk in parts of the north western US Corn Belt next week. Jul 15 Corn closed at $3.65 1/2, down 2 1/2 cents; Sep 15 Corn closed at $3.72 1/2, down 2 cents. For the week corn was even on a front month basis. Managed money is still sitting on a hefty short according to tonight's Commitment of Traders report.

Wheat: The wheat market closed slightly lower on the day, but with good gains for the week. Wheat stumbled for most of the session, but still looks pretty good on the charts, Benson Quinn suggested. Russia cancelled its export duty on wheat today, which may allow a further 1-2 MMT to be shipped out between now and the end of the season. Egypt's GASC said that it had bought 4.6 MMT of foreign wheat for import in their just ended 2014/15 season, that's down sharply on the 6.4 MMT purchased a year previously. The top suppliers were France (2 MMT), Romanina (1.1 MMT), Russia (910 TMT), the US (345 TMT) and Ukraine (190 TMT). "A bumper wheat harvest is anticipated in China from exceptionally generous spring rainfall on the North China Plain. The two leading wheat provinces Henan and Shandong were extremely wet receiving 150-200% of normal rainfall mid March to mid May. USDA anticipates a record China wheat harvest of 130 MMT. Abundant wheat supplies would increase ending stocks to 71.6 million tons, a 14% increase from last year. Exceptionally wet conditions are linked to a strong El Nino influence. The North China Plain is especially sensitive to the ENSO signal, receiving drenching rain with the El Nino, but drought with La Nina," said Martell Crop Projections. FranceAgriMer raised the proportion of the French winter wheat crop rated good to very good one point to 91%. "A prolonged period of drought has come to an end in Western Europe giving wheat a needed boost. France is the leading wheat country in the European Union and also wettest, following drenching rainfall the past 2-3 weeks. Parched wheat farms in United Kingdom also got a needed boost from heavy rainfall recently, boosting wheat potential. Denmark is also very wet. Very significant rainfall reached Germany and Poland, all important important wheat countries," said Martell Crop Projections. Ukraine said it has exported 10.1 MMT of wheat so far this season. APK Inform estimated full season wheat exports there at 11 MMT. Russia said that is spring wheat crop was 25.8% sown on 3.4 million ha versus 4.1 million ha a year ago. Jul 15 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.11, down 3 1/4 cents; Jul 15 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.41 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents; Jul 15 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.61 1/4, down 5 1/4 cents. On a front month basis Chicago wheat gained 34 1/2 cents, with the Kansas market adding 31 1/4 cents and Minneapolis advancing 32 3/4 cents.




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