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23 January 2017 | Online since 2003

Chicago Reports

20 January 2017 | Chicago Reports
19/01/17 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower. A Farm Futures Magazine survey estimated 2017 US soybean spring plantings at 90.52 million acres, up a hefty 7.12m, or 8.5% versus 83.4 million acres in 2016. The Buenos Aries Grain Exchange cut their forecast for Argentine plantings this season to 19.2m hectares, a drop of 900,000 hectares year on year. The Rosario Exchange cut its forecast for output by 1.5 MMT to 52.9 MMT. Trade estimates for tomorrow's one day delayed weekly export sales report for beans are 400,000 to 750,000 MT. Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.70 1/4, down 4 3/4 cents; May 17 Soybeans settled at $10.78 1/2, down 5 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Soybean Meal settled at $348.20, down $2.90; Mar 17 Soybean Oil settled at 35.44, down 14 points.

Corn: The market closed around a cent higher. The USDA reported export sales of 110,400 MT of US corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/17 marketing year. Trade ideas for tomorrow's weekly export sales are pretty strong at 1.0 to 1.5 MMT. US weekly ethanol production data topped trade expectations at an impressive 1.054 billion barrels/day, setting another new weekly record volume. Ukraine think tank UNIAN forecast the country's 2016/17 corn exports rising to 20.9 MMT this season. Worries remain over the relationship between the US and China, especially vis-a-vis corn, ahead of the inauguration of President Trump tomorrow. Whilst Chinese US corn imports are only minimal, they have been a significant importer of US DDGs and ethanol in the last 12 months. The sudden imposition of anti-dumping import duties threatens to slash this business by half, or more. Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.66 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents; May 17 Corn settled at $3.73 1/4, up 1 cent.

Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed, with Kansas down the most, Minneapolis nudging higher, and Chicago in the middle. Trade forecasts for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are between 250,000-550,000 MT. Japan bought 117,605 MT of US/Canadian wheat in their regular weekly tender. Taiwan are in the market or 93,600 MT of what will probably turn out to be US milling wheat, Morocco are reported to have bought 363,636 MT of EU soft wheat in a tender. Jordan bought 50,000 MT of hard wheat. Egypt are tendering for wheat for Feb 22 - Mar 3 shipment, having bought a mixture of mainly Russian and Romanian wheat recently. Results of that are expected Friday afternoon. The Buenos Aries Grain Exchange estimated final wheat production in Argentina this year at 15 MMT, up 39% on a year ago largely due to increased plantings. Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.23 1/2, down 7 1/2 cents; Mar 17 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.42 1/4, down 10 cents; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.76 1/2, up 3 cents.



18 January 2017 | Chicago Reports
18/01/17 -- Around midday London time Chicago grains trade with the soycomplex mostly lower, consolidating from yesterday's gains, with beans down 4-6 cents, meal $3-4 weaker and wheat and corn around unchanged.

News that Morocco bought almost 360 TMT of US soft wheat under a preferential tariff quota agreement was welcomed by the US wheat market yesterday. Weekly export inspections, whilst not exactly brilliant at 344,436 MT, were still more than 31% on the previous week. Weekly export inspections for beans were a respectable 1.4 MMT, which those for corn were 888 TMT.

Ahead of Friday's Trump inauguration, China recently raising its import tariffs on DDGs means that there has been talk of a similar import tariff move on ethanol, which is also mostly sourced from the US. China are of course desperately seeking ways to encourage the off take of their own domestic corn stockpile is any which way, shape or form.

There's talk of private estimates for Argentine soybean production coming in at only 51-53 MMT versus the current 57 MMT from the USDA, mostly due to unsown acreage due to flooding.



13 January 2017 | Chicago Reports
12/01/17 -- Soycomplex: Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.32, up 29 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.40 1/4, up 28 3/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybean Meal settled at $324.20, up $13.50; Jan 17 Soybean Oil settled at 35.85, up 6 points.

Corn: Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.58 1/4, up 1 cent; May 17 Corn settled at $3.64 3/4, up 3/4 cent.

Wheat: Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.26 1/4, up 7 1/2 cents; Mar 17 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.44 3/4, up 13 cents; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.74, up 12 1/2 cents.



12 January 2017 | Chicago Reports
11/01/17 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed slightly lower heading into tomorrow's all important USDA report. Brazilian production estimates keep nudging higher. Celeres raised their estimate to 105 MMT. AgroConsult upped theirs from 102.6 MMT to 104.4 MMT. The Argentine Ag Ministry have production there at 56 MMT, although others are 1-2 MMT lower. It remains to be seen if tensions between the US and China due to the upcoming Trump administration will cause any trade disputes on beans. The US is of course a major supplier to China. Tomorrow will also bring the usual Thursday weekly export sales report, with these estimated at around 500,000 to 800,000 MT for beans. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.03, down 2 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.11 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybean Meal settled at $310.70, down $2.70; Jan 17 Soybean Oil settled at 35.79, up 36 points.

Corn: The market closed around a cent or so easier. News that China is to impose an anti-dumping tax on US DDGs has the market uneasy. JCI estimates China's DDGs imports may drop 80-90% from the 6.8 MMT imported in 2015. Friendly was news from the US Energy Dept that weekly US ethanol production beat last week's record at 1,049 billion barrels/day last week. AgroConsult raised their view on Brazilian corn production this year from 92 MMT to 94.9 MMT. The Argentine Ag Ministry projected their 2016/17 corn crop would be 44.51 MMT. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are in the region of 500,000-800,000 MT. Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.57 1/4, down 1 cent; May 17 Corn settled at $3.64, down 1 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed mostly lower heading into tomorrow's USDA report. Talk of much-needed rain for the southern plains this weekend leans bearish. CONAB estimated Brazil's wheat imports at 5.95 MMT versus 5.1 MMT a month ago. Argentina will be the main beneficiary of that. Forecasts for tomorrow's weekly export sales for wheat are only around 250,000-450,000 MT for 2016/17, with maybe another 50,000 MT of new crop. The trade will be keep to see what the USDA have to say with regards to US winter wheat plantings. The average trade guess is for all wheat plantings to have dropped 2 million to 34.1 million acres, but some estimates are as low as 31.7 million. Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.18 3/4, down 8 cents; Mar 17 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.31 3/4, down 6 1/2 cents; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.61 1/4, up 1/4 cent.



11 January 2017 | Chicago Reports
10/01/17 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed higher approaching Thursday's WASDE report from the USDA. Trade forecasts for Brazilian production are growing, but shrinking for Argentina. CONAB increased their view on Brazil by 1.33 MMT to 103.78 (USDA: 102). That figure is now up 8.3 MMT from last year. AgRural raises Brazil from 101.8 MMT to 103.1 MMT. Dr Cordonnier lowered Argentina 1 MMT to 55.0 MMT citing heavy rains. More heavy rain is in the forecast. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board reported December stockpiles of palm oil at 1.665 MMT versus 2.633 MMT last year. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.05 1/2, up 9 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.13 3/4, up 8 1/2 cents; Jan 17 Soybean Meal settled at $313.40, up $3.60; Jan 17 Soybean Oil settled at 35.43, up 16 points.

Corn: Corn ended they day around a cent or two easier. The USDA reported 241,600 MT of US corn sold to unknown destinations, 91,300 MT for 2016/17 delivery, and 150,300 MT for 2017/18 delivery, under the daily reporting system. There was also 130,000 MT of old crop sold to Taiwan. CONAB raised its Brazil corn production forecast to 84.5 MMT (USDA: 86.5 MMT, last year 66.57 MMT.). Dr Cordonnier went for 86 MMT in his Brazilian estimate; Argentina was lowered 0.5 MMT to 34.5 MMT. The trade is looking for Thursday's US corn yield figure to come in anywhere between 173.4 to 176.1 bushels per acre versus the December USDA figure of 175.3 bu/acre. Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.58 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents; May 17 Corn settled at $3.65 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents.

Wheat: Wheat closed with little change. Japan are tendering for 162,777 MT of milling wheat from the US and Canada with the results expected Thursday. Low prices relative to other crops continue to put US wheat acres under pressure. The range of trade estimates for US winter wheat acreage in Thursday's report stretches from 31.7 to 36.38 million acres versus last year's 36.13 million acres. Record/near record yields are being reported out of Eastern Australia. China sold 375 TMT of the 2.67 MMT of wheat offered up for auction today. Severe cold weather in Ukraine could offer some threat to winter wheat already rated 17% weak/thinned. Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.26 3/4, down 1/2 cent; Mar 17 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.38 1/4, down 1/4 cent; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.61 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents.



10 January 2017 | Chicago Reports
09/01/17 -- Soycomplex: Beans settled higher, helped by strong weekly export inspections of 1.457 MMT. That was down 8.2% on last week, but more than 17% larger than the same period a year ago. The trade is positioning itself for a larger Brazilian, but lower Argentine crop than the USDA currently figures in the upcoming WASDE report. The trade expects the USDA to lower the Argentine bean crop 900 TMT to 56.1 MMT and raise Brazil 400 TMT to 102.4 MMT. A Bloomberg survey of analysts has the average guess for US soybean stocks as of December 1 at 2.953 billion bu, up 8.76% from a year earlier. Average US yields are estimated at 52.7 bu/ac and production at 4.37 billion bushels. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.96 1/2, up 10 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.05 1/4, up 10 1/2 cents; Jan 17 Soybean Meal settled at $309.80, up $2.30; Jan 17 Soybean Oil settled at 35.27, up 50 points.

Corn: The market closed a couple of cents or so higher. Weekly export inspections of 876,562 MT were up 36% from the previous week and 59% larger than the same week a year ago. The USDA also reported an export sale of 112,500 MT of corn to for 2016/17 delivery to an unknown destination. The trade is anticipating A Brazilian corn production number of up 600 TMT to 87.1 MMT, with Argentina down 400 TMT from December to 36.1 MMT in the WASDE report. A Bloomberg survey of trade analysts has the average pre-report estimate for December 1 Corn Stocks in all positions at 12.323 billion bushels. Taiwan's MFG bought 65,000 MT of US/Brazilian/Argentine or South African corn for March/April shipment in a tender. Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.60, up 2 cents; May 17 Corn settled at $3.67, up 2 1/4 cents.

Wheat: Wheat finished firmer, helped by the USDA announcing a flash sale of 120,000 MT of HRS wheat for 2016/17 delivery to an unknown destination. Weekly export inspections of only 260,555 MT weren't impressive though. The trade is looking for US all wheat stocks to average 2.056 billion bu in the Quarterly Grain Stocks report due out on Thursday. Winter wheat plantings of only 34.139 million acres, down from 36.137 million last year and the lowest since 1970 lean supportive in the longer-term. Some are starting to fret over very cold temperatures in Southern Russia and Ukraine. Temperatures fell to -25 C near Moscow overnight. Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.27 1/4, up 4 cents; Mar 17 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.38 1/2, up 5 cents; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.59 3/4, up 7 cents.



7 January 2017 | Chicago Reports
06/012/17 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed sharply lower following weekly export sales of only 87,500 MT vs the expected 750 TMT to 1.2 MMT. Total reductions for unknown destinations in this report were nearly 900 TMT. FCStone increased their view by 700 TMT on Brazilian production to 102.8 MMT, but Informa cut Argentina 1 MMT to 55 MMT. There's talk that Brazil could increase their Jan soybean export program significantly due to better availability and easier access to ports/improved logistics. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $9.86, down 17 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $9.94 3/4, down 17 3/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybean Meal settled at $307.50, down $6.90; Jan 17 Soybean Oil settled at 34.77, down 23 points.

Corn: The market closed around 3 cents lower. Weekly export sales came in at 429,246 MT, towards the low end of expectations, but this was for a holiday week so perhaps can be excused. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says corn plantings will be 4.9 million ha, unchanged from last week, and up 27% from last year. They have corn planting progress at 82.9% complete compared to 71.3% last week. Others are scaling back on their planting and hence production ideas due to wet weather/flooding. Informa cut their view on Argentine production, down slightly from the previous estimate of 36.5 MMT to 36.0 MMT. Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.58, down 3 1/4 cents; May 17 Corn settled at $3.64 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed. The USDA announced the sale of 100,000 MT of hard red winter wheat for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/17 marketing year. That helped temper the news that weekly export sales of only 183,700 MT were below modest trade expectations of 200-500 TMT. Farm Futures magazine forecast US winter wheat seedings of 34.8 million acres, the lowest total since 1913 as the low price/profit outlook encourages switching to other crops. Informa forecast Argentine wheat production at 15 MMT, up from their previous estimate of 13 MMT. They have been flexing their muscles lately on the international export arena, and another 2 MMT will only make matters worse. Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.23 1/4, down 3 cents; Mar 17 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.33 1/2, down 1 cent; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.52 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents.



6 January 2017 | Chicago Reports
05/01/17 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed a touch lower on the day. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange lowered the estimated Argentine soybean planted area 300,000 ha to 19.6 million ha. Dr Cordonnier has expressed concern that not all soybean acres will be planted this year due to the rains and flooding. Production there could end up in the 53-55 MMT region rather than the 57 MMT currently predicted by the USDA some are suggesting. Everything looks rosy in Brazil though. One of Brazil’s largest farming groups (Grupo Bom Futuro) said that they expect their soybean yields to come in 10 percent above the previous season. Trade ideas on the Brazilian crop are said to be in the 103-105 MMT area versus the December WASDE forecast of 102 MMT. Trade ideas for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are around 800 TMT to 1.2 MMT. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.03 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.12 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybean Meal settled at $314.40, down $0.90; Jan 17 Soybean Oil settled at 35.00, up 2 points.

Corn: Corn closed around a cent or two higher. Weekly US ethanol production came out today, up 15k barrels to nearly 1.04m barrels per day. This was a new record high and the tenth consecutive week that production has been over 1 million barrels/day which was friendly for corn. Taiwan’s MFIG are said to have bought 65 TMT of corn believed to be of US origin for March/April shipment. Ukraine’s 2017 corn crop is estimated to be down 13%, or 3.5 MMT, to 23.5 MMT, according to UkrAgroConsult. Weekly US corn export sales are estimated at 650-850 TMT for tomorrow's report. In other news, a potential drier outlook for Brazil over the coming weeks could provide resistance to corn, as this dryness should allow safrinha corn in Brazil to go in 2-3 weeks early. This timing should allow maximum yield potential for this shorter season double crop corn, offsetting potential losses from excessive rain in Argentina, said Water Street Solutions. Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.61 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents; May 17 Corn settled at $3.67 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents.

Wheat: Wheat closed with fair gains. Algeria were said to have bought 475 TMT of mixed optional origin wheat, paying around $200/tonne C&F. Jordan, Japan, Morocco and Ethiopia are among others in the market tendering for wheat. Argentina’s wheat harvest is 94.9% complete according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. In Ukraine, temperatures are reaching -20C with insufficient snow cover in some areas, a threat to winter wheat. "Wheat plantings in Ukraine as at 1 December are pegged at 6.1 million ha, up from 6.0 million at the same point last year – although this would still be a smaller winter wheat area than all other years at least back to 2008," say the HGCA. Ukraine wheat output in 2017 is expected to decline 3.5 MMT to 23.5 MMT, say UkrAgroConsult. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for wheat are a modest 200-500 TMT. Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.26 1/4, up 7 3/4 cents; Mar 17 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.34 1/2, up 8 cents; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.50 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents.



5 January 2017 | Chicago Reports
04/01/17 -- Soycomplex: Beans settled with decent gains after trading at its lowest level since November 18 earlier in the day. Strong global demand is underpinned by a lack of rapeseed. China reportedly sold 97.9 TMT of the 98.5 TMT of state owned rapeseed oil up for auction today. The USDA attache raised their estimate for the Brazilian soy crop 1 MMT to 102 MMT. The USDA crush report released yesterday afternoon indicated November was at 170.7 million bushels compared to 176.0 in October. Jan 17 Soybeans settled at $10.06 1/4, up 19 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Soybeans settled at $10.15 1/4, up 20 1/4 cents; Jan 17 Soybean Meal settled at $315.30, up $7.00; Jan 17 Soybean Oil settled at 34.98, up 41 points.

Corn: The market finished with net gains of around 4 cents, the 4th consecutive day of positive trade. The weekly USDA Export Sales report is delayed a day because of the holiday shortened week. Taiwan is tendering 40,000-65,000 MT of optional origin corn, including US material. AGPM estimated the French corn crop at 12.3 MMT, significantly higher than FranceAgrimer’s 11.45 MMT figure. In Argentina, heavy rainfall is raising fears about that last sowing works, say Agritel. Farmers have sown about 85% of soybeans and 72% of corn, according to the Buenos Aires Exchange. Russia said that they'd exported 2.32 MMT of corn so far this year. Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.59 3/4, up 4 cents; May 17 Corn settled at $3.65 3/4, up 4 1/4 cents.

Wheat: Wheat finished with decent gains. That USDA has 44% of Kansas wheat rated good to excellent versus 52% at the end of November. Oklahoma is now only 25% G/E, down from 53% a month ago. This news will likely have prompted some short-covering, even if the trade is relatively relaxed about the global supply and demand situation. Ethiopia are tendering for 720,000 MT of wheat of optional origin. China’s imported wheat auction continues to see little interest, with less than 100 TMT of the offered near 1 MMT sold today. Russia said that they'd exported 15.45 MMT of wheat so far this season. Total grain exports are running nearly 4% lower year-on-year. Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.18 1/2, up 12 cents; Mar 17 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.26 1/2, up 12 1/2 cents; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.44 1/2, up 7 cents.




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