Corn: The market closed around unchanged levels. Weekly export inspections
of 575,000 MT were reported for 2016/17. That was at the low end of expectations
of 0.5 to 1.0 MMT. Exports of 1,261,500 MT were reasonably robust however. The
IGC cut the world corn crop by 3 MMT to 1027 MMT where "overly dry weather
has affected crop prospects in the EU and China". They cut the EU to 59.5
MMT from 61.6 MMT previously, but still up from 58.2 MMT a year ago. China was
lowered 2 MMT to 217 MMT. World ending stocks were down 2 MMT to 216 MMT. China
offered another 4.7 MMT of reserve corn but found hardly any interest. Russia
said that it's 2016 corn harvest was 21.2% complete at 3.2 MMT in bunker weight.
Ukragroconsult lowered their forecast for Romanian corn production by 850 TMT
to 8.1 MMT due to long-term drought. The size of the already large spec fund
short in corn is a downside limiter for now, Tomorrow's stocks report isn't
thought likely to be a "game changer" for corn, but you just never
know with the USDA. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.29 1/4, unchanged; Mar 17 Corn
settled at $3.39, also unchanged.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed. Weekly export sales of 570,800 MT for
delivery in marketing year 2016/17 were up 2 percent from the previous week
and 20 percent from the prior 4-week average. That was in line with trade estimates
of 400,000 MT and 650,000 MT. Exports of 843,400 MT were a marketing-year high,
up 53 percent from the previous week and 36 percent from the prior 4-week average.
Japan also bought 125,800 MT of US/Canadian wheat in their regular weekly tender.
There's some talk that wheat stocks could be lower than many in the trade anticipate
in tomorrow's report due to increased wheat feeding as the wheat/corn price
differential is relatively narrow. The average trade guess for stocks tomorrow
is 2.438 billion bushels. There's increased talk of crop losses/quality damage
to Australian wheat due to frost in the west and excessive wetness in the east.
The IGC raised their forecast for the 2016/17 global wheat crop by 4 MMT to
747 MMT. Carryover stocks were increased 2 MMT to 231 MMT. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat
settled at $3.99, down 4 1/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.17 1/4,
down 4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.09 3/4, up 1 1/4 cents.
Corn: Corn closed lower despite the USDA announcing a monster sale of 1,577,340
MT of US corn for delivery to Mexico under the daily reporting system. Of the
total 1,036,320 MT is for delivery during the 2016/17 marketing year and 541,020
MT is for delivery during the 2017/18 marketing year. The US Energy Dept reported
ethanol production up 8,000 barrels per day to 989,000 bpd last week. The average
trade guess for Friday's USDA Sep 1 corn stocks figure is 1.754 billion bushels.
Weekly export sales are forecast around 0.5 to 1.0 MMT. Safras reported Brazilian
full season corn planting at 16% complete versus 21% typically at this time.
Argentina have taken up the export baton from Brazil and shipped out a record
4 MMT of corn in August (versus only 1.54 MMT a year previously). South Korea's
Kocopia were reported to have purchased 55,000 MT of US corn for Jan shipment
in a tender. China are reported to have added a 10.7% anti-subsidy tariff to
US DDGs imports. That's on top of the recently introduced 33.8% import duty.
Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.29 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.39,
down 2 3/4 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed mixed. The average trade guess for Friday's Sep 1 stocks
report is a large 2.438 billion bushels. The market is hoping that the US can
pick up some export interest by playing the quality card that seems to be lacking
from the hands of other global exporting nations this year. Trade forecasts
for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 400,000 MT and 650,000 MT for
wheat. Trade gossip suggests that a problem might be looming for Australian
wheat just prior to harvesting, where it's forecast to see temperatures dip
below freezing in the most productive west of the country, whilst the east picks
up heavy rain. The quality of the Canadian crop is also rumoured to be subpar,
leading to an export demand shifting stateside, said FCStone. There's talk too
that Russia's crop might be setting production records this year, but that the
quality of that too is lower than normal. Argentina reported that it had exported
7.35 MMT of wheat Jan/Aug, double the volume shipped out in the same period
in 2015. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.03 1/4, down 3/4 cent; Dec 16 KCBT
Wheat settled at $4.21 1/4, up 2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.08 1/2,
up 5 3/4 cents.
Corn: The corn market closed around 2-3 cents higher, correcting some of yesterday's
losses in "Turnaround Tuesday" style. Spillover support came from
rallying beans and wheat. Good demand also supports - US corn export inspections
have been above 1 MMT for 17 weeks in a row now following yesterday's numbers.
US harvest pace is running behind average but there's time to catch up. US growers
are capable of harvesting 25% of the crop in a week if the weather plays ball.
The EU Commission's MARS lowered their forecast for EU corn yields this year
from 7.23 MT/ha a month ago to 6.84 MT/ha, although that's still more than 6.31
MT/ha a year ago. France was cut to 7.65 MT.ha versus 8.36 MT/ha a year ago
and 9.11 MT/ha for the 5-year average. Ukraine's 2016 corn harvest is 15% done
at 3.17 MMT. Russia's is 20% complete at 3 MMT. China offered 1.2 MMT of corn
at auction today but picked up no interest. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.31 3/4,
up 2 3/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.41 3/4, up 2 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed with decent gains. Short covering was noted.
There's some talk of quality perhaps becoming an issue for Canadian and Australian
wheat, but there's little hard evidence of this yet. Trade gossip suggests a
shortage is quality wheat is looming this year. Some say that growers with quality
wheat are hanging onto it. Others say they simply haven't got it. Japan are
in for 125,800 MT of US/Canadian wheat in their regular Tuesday tender. Morocco
tendered for more US SRW. Ukraine winter wheat is said to be 33% planted. Russia
is about 62% done. MARS lowered EU-28 soft wheat yields to 5.63 MT/ha from 5.86
MT/ha a month ago. French yields were cut to 5.62 MT/ha versus 7.92 MT/ha in
2015 and 7.34 MT/ha for the recent average. Argentina has turned cold and dry.
"Temperatures in Argentina are quite cold with widespread freezing temperatures
this week that could impact some of the developing wheat crop," said Dr
Cordonnier. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.04, up 8 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat
settled at $4.19 1/4, up 5 1/4 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.02 3/4,
up 8 1/4 cents.
Corn: The market closed around 7 cents lower despite weekly export inspections
of 1.335 MMT. That was nearly 65% larger than the same week a year ago. The
forecast for better harvest weather across the next 10 days was however the
deciding factor. The USDA said that harvesting of this year's crop was 15% complete
as of Sunday night, 4 points behind the 5-year average. Crop conditions were
left unchanged at 74% good to excellent. They said that 73% of the crop is mature
(64% on average) and that 97% of the crop is dented, one point ahead of the
norm. Early French corn yields are "confirming a disappointing season"
and the harvest there might now struggle to reach 12 MMT, said Agritel. That
would be more than 1 MMT below last year. High temperatures will cut this year's
Romanian corn crop to "no more than" 8.75 MMT, according to one analyst.
Production last year was 12 MMT. The USDA's FAS in the Philippines said that
the country might produce 7.9 MMT of corn this year (7.5 MMT a year ago). Imports
in 2016/17 are seen at 0.9 MMT versus only 0.1 MMT in 2015/16. Dec 16 Corn settled
at $3.29, down 7 1/2 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.39, down 7 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed sharply lower. Weekly export inspections of
875,049 MT were impressive (up more than 150% from the previous week) but, as
with corn, largely ignored. The USDA reported winter wheat planting at 30% done,
in line with the 5-year average and trade expectations. Emergence was placed
at 8%, also in line with normal. In Brazil, the state of Parana's wheat harvest
is said to be 22% done and quality very good this year. That would be detrimental
to US export hopes. The Russian Ag Ministry increased their forecast for wheat
production there this year to 71 MMT, estimating a total clean weight grain
crop of 113 MMT which easily beats the post-Soviet era record of 108 MMT set
in 2008. Planting for the 2017 harvest (mostly wheat) is already nearly 60%
complete. Russian grain exports have thus far been slow though at 7.83 MMT to
Sep 21, a 9% decline versus the same period in 2015/16. Exports were though
much better last week at 747.4 TMT versus a poor 229.4 TMT the previous week.
Some 595.3 TMT of that was wheat. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $3.96, down 8
3/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.14, down 7 1/2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX
Wheat settled at $4.94 1/2, down 9 1/4 cents.
Corn: Corn closed fractionally lower on the day and for the week. Harvest pressure
is a negative, with an estimated 20% of the US crop thought likely to have been
cut by Sunday night. Still, unlike beans, anecdotal reports from the field on
corn are of lower yields than last year. As well as talk of lower yields there's
also trade gossip that the wet weather has cause quite a few disease problems
this year. That seems to be limiting downside for now. So too does the size
of the short held by managed money, placed at -161,592 net contracts as of Tuesday
night. One talking point today was the decision by China to place a 33% anti
dumping levy on US DDGS imports as they struggle to dispose of their own domestic
government-owned corn mountain. Coceral pegged EU-28 corn output 1 MMT down
from June, but 3 MMT above last year, at 61 MMT. In Brazil Parana state is said
to be 34% planted on corn. The market is drifting along directionless for now.
Next Friday, the USDA release their quarterly stocks report that could provide
some direction to the market. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.36 1/2, down 1/4 cent;
Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.46 1/4, down 1/2 cent. For the week Dec 16 was 1/2
cent lower and Mar 17 was down a cent.
Wheat: Wheat closed little changed on the day but higher for the week. The
Indian government lowered its wheat import tax to 10% from 25% as part of an
effort to curb food price inflation. Some are forecasting that this could trigger
imports of up to 5 MMT this season. The USDA are currently at 2 MMT. Australian
and Black Sea wheat are likely to be the main beneficiaries. Ukraine wheat has
been scoring on price recently. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said that Argentine
wheat is 49% excellent and 35% good out of a planted area of 4.3 million ha
this year. Egypt were reported to have bought 240 TMT of Russian wheat in their
latest tender, paying around $179/tonne FOB, or $187/tonne C&F. Coceral
estimated the EU-28 soft wheat crop at 134 MMT, some 14 MMT less than their
June forecast and 18 MMT below last year's record. Barley production in Europe
is now seen at 59 MMT versus 61 MMT last year. That's 4 MMT below their June
estimate. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.04 3/4, down 3/4 cent; Dec 16 KCBT
Wheat settled at $4.21 1/2, up 3/4 cent; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.03
3/4, up 2 1/2 cents. For the week Chicago wheat was up 1 1/2 cents, Kansas was
4 1/4 cents higher and Minneapolis was up 11 cents.
Corn: The corn market closed around 3 cents lower. The USDA reported weekly
export sales of 921,900 MT, in line with trade ideas. Total season so far commitments
are running 8.14 MMT ahead of a year ago helped by the lack of availability
coming out of Brazil. As the US harvest gathers pace "field reports from
producers are mentioning that yields are good, just not great like they were
hoping/expecting," said Benson Quinn. China reported DDGS imports of 508
TMT in August, down 36% from a year ago. Corn imports were virtually zero. The
Chinese government sold virtually none of the 3.6 MMT of 2013 crop corn offered
up at auction today. Russia reported that it's 2016 corn harvest was now 17.7%
complete at 2.7 MMT. Average yields are coming in at 5.28 MT/ha versus 5.06
MT/ha a year ago. A crop of around a record 14 MMT is now expected. A Bloomberg
survey into trader/analyst sentiment found 3 bulls, 15 bears and 13 neutrals
on corn. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.36 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents; Mar 17 Corn settled
at $3.46 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed. Weekly export sales came in a little
above trade expectations at 561,000 MT. Egypt picked up four sellers in their
tender to buy wheat at 0.05% ergot. Sellers still appear reluctant to participate
as they are not above re-introducing their zero tolerance stance retrospectively.
Offers were above previous levels and appear to have contained a bit of "protection
money". Results are not known yet. Brussels issued 452,000 MT worth of
EU soft wheat export licences, taking the volume granted so far this season
to almost 25% higher than a year ago. Russia said that it's 2016 wheat harvest
was now 91.9% done at 73 MMT. Planting of winter grains (mostly wheat) for the
2017 harvest is 59.1% complete on 10.3 million ha. Jordan tendered for 100,000
MT each of hard wheat and feed barley. Chinese wheat imports for the month of
August were 347,733 MT. A Bloomberg survey into trader/analyst sentiment found
2 bulls, 9 bears and 18 neutrals on wheat. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.05
1/2, down 2 1/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.20 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents;
Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.01 1/4, up 6 1/2 cents.
Corn: The market closed with just nominal losses. Some of the unwinding of
spreads may have helped corn today. Weekly US ethanol production was placed
at 981,000 barrels/day last week, down from 1,004,000 bpd the previous week.
Lanworth estimated US 2016 corn yields at 168.5 bu/acre, well below the USDA's
174.4 bu/acre figure. Corn planting in Brazil's is making rapid progress with
Parana state now 19% done versus only 4% complete a week ago. Hungary is on
the way to harvesting a record 8 MMT of corn, according to a report on Reuters.
Russia's IKAR raised their estimate for this year's corn harvest there from
14.0 MMT to 14.5 MMT (record), based on better than expected early yields. Harvesting
of that crop is 17.5% done so far at 2.7 MMT, with yields averaging 5.27 MT/ha
versus 5.06 MT/ha a year ago. Trade ideas for tomorrow's weekly export sales
report on corn are 750 TMT to 1.1 MMT. Dec 16 Corn closed at $3.40, down 1/2
cent; Mar 17 Corn closed at $3.50, down 3/4 cent.
Wheat: The wheat market closed a touch higher. The USDA reported the sale of
145,000 MT of hard red winter wheat for delivery to Morocco during the 2016/17
marketing year under the daily reporting system. Reuters report that in fact
they purchased 235,000 MT under a special quota deal between the two countries.
Egypt rescinded their zero tolerance to ergot stance and immediately tendered
for wheat for Oct 21-31 shipment under their old terms of 0.05% tolerance. The
results are expected tomorrow. It will be interesting to see how may offers
get put up. In Russia, wheat harvesting is 91.2% complete at 72.7 MMT. Barley
adds a further 18.4 MMT (93.4%) to the mix. "The 5 day forecast has light
rains for the southern plains through Saturday with a moderate to heavy system
on Sunday. The 6-10 forecast continues the wet pattern for the Southern Plains
during planting season," said FCStone. Trade ideas for tomorrow's weekly
export sales report are modest at 350-550,000 MT. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat closed at
$4.07 3/4, up 1 3/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.22 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents;
Dec 16 MGEX Wheat closed at $4.94 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents.
Corn: Corn closed around 3 cents higher. The fledgling US harvest is running
behind schedule and the current wet weather forecast offers little chance of
it making up lost ground soon. That's viewed as supportive by the market, as
are US exports running well ahead of year ago levels, helped by tightness in
supply in South America. China only sold 1,800 MT of the 1.2 MMT of government
owned corn supplies offered up at auction. Much, if not all, of these stocks
are 3-5 years old hence end user reluctance with new crop availability just
around the corner. Russia said that it's 2016 corn harvest was 16.5% complete
at 2.5 MMT. Ukraine's new crop corn is 10% done at 2 MMT. Final production is
estimated as high as 26 MMT. Ukraine's export effort will soon switch to corn.
Stats Canada estimated Canadian corn production at 13 MMT, down 2.9% from last
year. December CBOT corn closed above the 50 day moving average for the first
time since June 21st tonight. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.40 1/2, up 3 1/4 cents;
Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.50 3/4, up 3 1/4 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed mixed. Higher trade in corn and beans provided some support.
Stats Canada came out with production numbers of 31.3 MMT for all wheat and
20.5 MMT for spring wheat. That was about what the trade was expecting. Russia's
wheat harvest reportedly stands at 72.4 MMT off 90.5% of the combinable area.
Yields are said to be averaging 2.89 MT/ha, up 9% versus 2.65 MT/ha a year ago.
The Russian barley harvest stands at 18.4 MMT off 93.1% of plan. Plantings for
the 2017 harvest are already said to be 56.1% complete. US winter wheat plantings
are just getting going at 16% done, according to the USDA. Low prices and a
general disenchantment with the crop could see growers plant the smallest area
in more than 100 years, according to some estimates. US dollar strength remains
a thorn in the side of potential wheat exports. Some analysts are predicting
a Fed interest rate rise tomorrow, which won't help any. Platts reported that
Indian buyers have booked around 500,000 MT of Ukraine wheat "under the
radar" in the past 6 weeks as availability of state-owned supplies tightens.
Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.06, up 2 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at
$4.18 1/2, up 2 cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $4.91 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents.
Corn: The corn market closed with marginal gains. Weekly export inspections
of 1.285 MMT were down slightly from the previous week, but 75% larger than
the same week in 2015. Export pace is so far running well ahead of last year.
The USDA reported US corn crop conditions unchanged at 74% good to excellent.
They said that nationally the crop is 9% harvested against 12% normally. They
have 53% of the crop mature, 5 points ahead of the norm for this time. The crop
is 93% dented compared to 91% typically. Ukraine said that it had exported 583
TMT of corn so far this season. Russia has exported only 94 TMT. Russia's new
crop corn harvest is now said to be 14% complete at 2.1 MMT. Private exporters
reported to the USDA export sales of 191,000 MT of corn for delivery to Mexico
during the 2016/2017 marketing year under the daily reporting system. Dec 16
Corn settled at $3.37 1/4, up 1/4 cent; Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.47 1/2, up
Wheat: The wheat market closed narrowly mixed. As expected Egypt picked up
zero in their zero tolerance to ergot tender, with no offers made. Weekly export
inspections came in at 562,215 MT, below both a week ago and a year ago. Russia's
exports via seaports dipped off to only 229.4 TMT last week, including just
112.9 TMT of wheat. They are going to miss Egypt more than anybody as things
stand. There's continued talk that despite bumper production this year (they're
currently said to have harvested 72 MMT of wheat off less than 90% of the planned
area) quality isn't great, which could also be having an adverse affect on exports.
Another country whose exports are down in Canada. The Canadian Wheat Board put
their exports so far this season (starting August) at 1.47 MMT, down 34% on
the same period in 2015/16. Low prices mean than US growers will sow the smallest
winter wheat acreage since 1913, according to Farm Futures Magazine. Winter
wheat is currently 16% planted said the USDA. Spring wheat harvesting is 98%
complete. Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.04, up 3/4 cent; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat
settled at $4.16 1/2, down 3/4 cent; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.02, down
Corn: The market closed around 7 cents higher on wet weather worries. Prices
were still lower for the week overall though. "As well as delaying the
harvest, the rain is raising the risk of disease in the crop," noted Agrimoney.
"Diplodia is a common topic with anecdotal reports coming from the early
harvest running 10 to 30% damage," said FCStone. The Buenos Aires Grain
Exchange estimated the recently finished Argentine 2015/16 corn crop at 28 MMT,
up 1.7 MMT on last year on a planted area of 3.6 million ha. They say that planting
for the 2016/17 crop is now underway in some areas and expect plantings to rise
to 4.5 million ha due to recent government changes to export taxes. Brazilian
analyst Safras estimate the 2016/17 Brazil corn crop at 92.3 MMT vs 70.75 MMT
for 2015/16 on a significant jump in planted acres due to much higher domestic
prices and a return to more normal crop rotational methods. FranceAgriMer reported
that French corn crop conditions declined again this week, but this time by
only the one point in the good to very good category to 54%. Harvesting of that
crop has yet to begin. Dec 16 Corn settled at $3.37, up 7 cents; Mar 17 Corn
settled at $3.47 1/4, up 7 cents. For the week Dec 16 corn was still down 4
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher. Egypt tendered for wheat but nobody
offered due to the zero tolerance stance on ergot. There's talk that despite
expecting their second largest crop ever, Australia's wheat harvest (normally
Oct/Dec) could see quality damage due to the developing La Nina. "The premium
of futures in hard winter wheat to those in lower-protein soft wheat hit a fresh
five-month top, as US official forecast an "unusually high" spread
thanks to quality setbacks in the world harvest," noted Agrimoney. "The
quality of wheat in 2016-17 is likely to be much lower than the average of recent
years, and last year as well," the USDA said in a report. Strategie Grains
yesterday estimated the proportion of EU wheat destined only for the feed bin
to rise from 29% to 41% this year. There's some talk also that the quality of
this year's apparently bumper Russian wheat crop is not as good as in normal
years. Russia has currently harvested 71.2 MMT of wheat off 87.8% of the planned
area, along with 18.2 MMT of barley (92.3% harvested). Dec 16 CBOT Wheat settled
at $4.03 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents; Dec 16 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.17 1/4, up 1 1/4
cents; Dec 16 MGEX Wheat settled at $4.92 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents.