Corn: The corn market closed higher, particularly on new crop, on ideas that 2-3 million US acres will still go unplanted this year. South Korea's NOFI bought 68 TMT of optional origin corn for October shipment along with 58 TMT of what was thought to be a first time Black Sea purchase for November shipment at what was said to be the cheapest price in more than a year. Michael Cordonnier estimated the US 2013 corn planted area at 94.3 million acres, down 3.0 million from the USDA estimate. He pegged the US 2013 corn yield at 153.0 bu/acre and estimated production at a record 13.26 billion bushels, both are unchanged from his previous estimate. AgriFood Canada estimated the Canadian corn crop at 13.8 MMT versus 13.1 MMT last year. Weekly US ethanol production data comes out tomorrow. Also due tomorrow are the latest US acreage estimates from Informa, last month they forecast the 2013 US corn area at 96.827 million acres versus the USDA estimate of 97.3 million. Chinese industry analysts estimated the 2012/13 Brazilian corn crop at 77.0 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate. They forecast the Argentine corn crop at 24.0 MMT, also unchanged from previously. Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.73 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD5.50 1/2, up 12 cents.

Wheat: Jordan bought 100 TMT of optional origin wheat Sept/Oct shipment. The USDA attaché in Saudi Arabia estimated 2013/14 wheat production at 600,000 MT versus 780,000 MT in 2012/13. He pegged 2013/14 Saudi wheat imports at 2.5 MMT, up 13% from a year ago. ABARES estimated global wheat output at 690 MMT, up 5.3% from a year ago, but below the USDA's 696 MMT. They said that the FOB Gulf price of US HRW wheat is seen averaging USD315/tonne in the year starting July 1st versus a previous forecast of USD320/tonne and USD348/tonne in 2012/13. Japan tendered for 152 TMT of US, Canadian and Australian wheat but excluded US Western White Wheat for the fourth tender in a row on GMO concerns. AgriFood Canada estimated the Canadian all wheat crop at 29.4 MMT versus 27.2 MMT a year ago. The Russian and Ukraine barley harvest is underway and yields are said to be much higher than a year ago. ODA said that the French soft wheat crop is 67% good to excellent as of June 4th, up sharply versus the start of April when conditions were only 56% good to excellent. They said that expect the 2013 French soft wheat crop to be the largest since 2009. Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.87 1/2, up 7 cents; Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.19 1/4, up 5 1/2 cents; Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.99, down 1 1/4 cents.

Corn: Weekly export inspections came in quite strong at 14.144 million bushels versus the 5-10 million expected by the trade. That helped old crop post the best gains of the day. South Korea's NOFI tendered for 140 TMT of corn, including Black Sea origin within it's list of approved origins. The trade views this as being due to persistent shipping delays out of South America. The Argentine corn harvest is 80% complete versus 69% a year ago, according to the local Ag Ministry. MARS estimated EU corn yields this year at an average 7.13 MT/ha, up from 6.87 MT/ha last month and up more than 20% on 5.91 MT/ha last year. Russia said that it's spring grain planting campaign was complete, including 2.3 million ha of corn, 106.5% of the originally expected area. The USDA didn't issue a planting progress estimate for corn, they did say however that 92% of the crop is emerged versus 85% last week and 97% for the 5-year average. Good/excellent ratings rose one point from last week to 64%. Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.68 1/2, up 13 1/2 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD5.38 1/2, up 5 1/2 cents.

Wheat: Weekly export inspections of 21.592 million bushels were in line with the expected 20-26 million. Egypt remains absent from the international tender market. They said that they had bought almost 4 MMT of wheat on the local market since their 2013 harvest began. Wheat imports in the 2012/13 financial year are placed at 6.6 MMT versus the USDA's estimate of 8.5 MMT. The Ukraine Weather Centre estimated their wheat crop at 20.0 MMT versus 19.5 MMT from the USDA. APK Inform forecast the Russian 203 wheat crop at 52.1 MMT, up 38%. The see the 2013/14 exportable surplus at 15.0 MMT, up 50% from 10.0 MMT in 2012/13. South Korea's NOFI tendered for 55 TMT of feed wheat and excluded US wheat from the list of approved origins due to GMO issues. The USDA said that the recent discovery of GMO wheat growing in a field in Oregon was a one off incident. The USDA said that 11% of the nation's winter wheat crop was harvested versus 25% normally. Spring wheat planting is 92% complete versus 97% normally. Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.80 1/2, down 1/4 cent; Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.13 3/4, up 2 1/4 cents; Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.00 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents.

Corn: The corn market also saw old crop gains and new crop declines for similar reasons to those for soybeans. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated Argentina's corn crop this year at 66.3% harvested versus 61.3% a week ago and 67.6% a year ago. They estimated production at 24.8 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate and significantly lower than the USDA's 27 MMT. The Argentina Ag Ministry estimated the corn crop at 26-27 MMT. CNGOIC estimated China’s 2013 corn crop at 214.0 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate. They forecast 2013/14 corn imports at 5 MMT versus 7 MMT from the USDA. As with soybeans, the sharks are circling new crop corn. Goldman Sachs forecast corn prices down to USD4.75/bushel from a previous forecast of USD5.25/bushel, adding that a further downgrade to USD4.25/bushel was possible if the US got a corn crop of 13.6 billion bushels this year. The USDA forecast production at 14 billion on Wednesday. Goldman recommended to customers "a short new crop corn and bean basket trade" according to reports. The Deutsche Bank meanwhile are even more bearish, saying that new crop prices could fall as low as USD3.60/bushel. The USDA will report on US corn planting progress on Monday night. Last week's report suggested that 95% of the 2013 US corn crop was in the ground. That might be up to the 97% mark on Monday, which would mean 3 million acres of the USDA's forecast 97.3 million would still be unplanted. Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.55, up 11 1/2 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD5.33, down 2 1/4 cents. For the week Jul 13 was down 11 1/4 cents and Dec 13 fell 25 1/2 cents.

Wheat: Wheat was down on all three exchanges with news that the Black Sea barley harvest was underway and that early yields were up sharply on year ago levels. The wheat harvest in the region will not be far behind. The US winter wheat harvest is in full swing in Texas and Oklahoma and is now into Kansas. Reports so far suggest good quality and a wide range of test weights. Protein levels are said to be high, which may suggest lower yields. CNGOIC estimated China’s 2013 wheat crop at 120.63 MMT, down from a previous estimate of 121.9 MMT due to excessive rains. Ukraine's State Stats Office said June 1st grain stocks there were 6.3 MMT, down 42% from a year ago, including 2.5 MMT of wheat, 2.6 MMT of corn and 700 TMT of barley. The barley harvest there has begun in the Crimea and Odessa regions. Iran are said to have bought at least 800 TMT of wheat in the past two weeks ahead of this weekend's upcoming elections. Germany and the Baltic are the most likely origins it is thought. In Canada's Saskatchewan, spring crop plantings are said to be 96% complete versus the 5 year average of 89%. Argentine wheat plantings are said to be 30% complete and optimism is high for a strong rebound in production this year on increased plantings and better yields. The same can also be said for Australia. US harvest pressure and the threat of increased competition from a sharp rebound in production from the other major wheat exporting nations in 2013 sees the market grind lower. Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.80 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents; Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.11 1/2, down 7 cents; Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.04, down 8 cents. For the week that puts Chicago wheat 15 1/2 cents lower, with Kansas down 23 1/2 cents and Minneapolis 15 3/4 cents easier.

Corn: The corn market fell in follow through selling on yesterday's surprise from the USDA - leaving the 2013 US corn planted area unchanged at 97.3 million acres, contrary to expectations of a cut of around 1-3 million. However, it should be noted that the USDA have something of a track record of not lowering yield estimates in the June S&D report, usually waiting until July to do this. It may also be worth noting that they surprised the market last June by leaving US corn yields unchanged from their May projection at 166 bu/acre. In the July 2012 S&D report they then stunned the market by slashing fully 20 bu/acre off their June projection. MCA CropCast forecast the US 2013 corn crop at 13.291 billion bushels today, substantially lower than the USDA's estimate of just over 14 billion bushels yesterday. They estimated the world corn crop in 2013/14 at 913.9 MMT compared to 962.6 MMT from the USDA yesterday. Corn used in yesterday’s weekly ethanol production report was estimated at 92.8 million bushels. Corn usage needs to average 94.9 million bushels/week to meet this crop year’s USDA estimate of 4.6 billion bushels. On the international stage, South Korea bought 110 TMT of South American corn for Sep/Oct shipment. Weekly US corn export sales of only 149,500 MT offered little support (split 81,500 MT old crop and 68,000 MT new crop) versus trade forecasts of 2-400 TMT. Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.43 1/2, down 7 1/4 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD5.35 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market closed down, but well off the lows. Weekly export sales of 427,200 MT were at the low end of trade forecasts of 4-650 TMT, but did include some nice business to Brazil (130,700 MT). The USDA announced 1.19 MMT of old crop sales unfulfilled and carried over into 2013/14. Japan bought 157,439 MT of US, Canadian and Australian wheat in their tender. US Western White wheat was excluded again on GMO grounds. Taiwan tendered for 85,500 MT of US wheat but said that it wanted GMO exclusion guarantees to go with it. SovEcon upped their forecast for Russian wheat production from 50 MMT to 52 MMT, up sharply versus 37.7 MMT last year although 2 MMT less than the USDA predicted yesterday. With Russia needing to replenish government stocks depleted by intervention sales in excess of 3.5 MMT across the winter and spring, they forecast Russian wheat exports at 14-15 MMT compared with the USDA's estimate of 17 MMT yesterday. ABARES increased their forecast for Australian wheat production to 25.4 MMT versus 22.1 MMT in 2012/13 on increased plantings and better yields. The split is WA up from 6.9 MMT to 8.8 MMT; NSW up from 7.1 MMT to 7.6 MMT; SA up from 3.7 MMT to 4.1 MMT; VIC up fom 2.7 MMT to 3.1 MMT and QLD up from 1.7 MMT to 1.8 MMT. Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.85 1/2, up 2 1/2 cents; Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.18 1/2, up 2 cents; Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.12, up 5 3/4 cents.

Corn: The USDA shocked the trade by leaving their estimate for US corn plantings this year unchanged at 97.3 million acres. Many were expecting a 1-3 million acre cut, and they maybe still are. US yield potential this year was reduced slightly to 156.5 bu/acre, down 1.5 bu/acre from last month. Many others are in the 150-155 bu/acre camp. The USDA raised the old crop US ending stocks estimate by 10 million bushels to 769 million. The official 2013/14 US ending stocks estimate is now 1.949 billion bushels, with total production this year of just over 14 billion bushels (easily a record) versus most trade guesses in the 13.2-13.8 billion range. Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.50 3/4, down 8 3/4 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD5.37 1/2, down 13 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market was dragged lower by the USDA's forecast for what would easily be a record US corn crop this year. The USDA estimated US ending stocks for 2012/13 at 746 million bushels and at 659 million for 2013/14. Trade guesses were 744 million and 655 million respectively. They did however cut the world wheat crop and ending stocks in 2013/14 by around 5 MMT each. Russia had their output forecast cut to 54 MMT this year, although that's still at the high end of trade estimates. Ukraine's output was also reduced along with a minor downwards tweak for Europe. Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.83, down 13 3/4 cents; Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.16 1/2, down 13 1/2 cents; Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.06 1/4, down 9 1/2 cents.

Corn: The corn market rose as US farmers struggle to get the last of the crop into the ground, and much of what has gone in already has been sown in less than ideal conditions. The trade is anticipating US 2012/13 ending stocks to be trimmed from 759 million bushels last month to an average 748 million in tomorrow's WASDE report. World carryout is seen little changed at 125.7 MMT versus 125.4 MMT last month. For 2013/14 the market is looking for US ending stocks of 1.758 billion bushels versus just over 2 billion in May. The world carryout next season is estimated at 150.5 MMT against 154.6 MMT last month. Argentina's corn crop is estimated at 25.8 MMT and Brazil's at 75.7 MMT. South Korea bought a total of 134,000 MT of corn in a tender today. Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.59 1/2, up 9 1/2 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD5.50 3/4, up 4 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market gained some traction from the continued slow spring wheat planting progress and ideas that some of the USDA production estimates around the world may be too high. The USDA attache in India estimated the wheat crop there at 87 MMT, some 5 MMT less than the USDA themselves currently predict. Russia’s Ag Ministry estimated 2013 Russian wheat crop at 50-54 MMT versus 56 MMT from the USDA. ODA estimated France’s 2013 wheat crop at 36.0 MMT versus 38.2 MMT from the USDA. Trade estimates for tomorrow place the US all wheat crop at 2.026 billion bushels, from within a range of estimates of 1.872-2.082 billion, and 2012 production was 2.269 billion. US 202/13 ending stocks are forecast at 734 million bushels and those for 2013/14 at 634 million. Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.96 3/4, up 7 cents; Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.30, up 4 cents; Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.15 3/4, up 4 1/4 cents.

Corn: The corn market also posted double digit losses on promises of a drier and warmer week ahead. Customs data shows that Argentina exported a record 3.3 MMT of corn in May, up 0.5 MMT from April’s 2.8 MMT. China are said to have approved new varieties of Argentine corn and soybeans, paving the way for more imports from the South Americans. The Argentine Ag Secretary estimated the country's 2013 corn crop at 26-27 MMT and pegged exports at 18.0 MMT. South Korea's MFG are tendering for 140 TMT of US, South American, South African or Eastern European corn for October shipment. Ukraine's Ag Ministry estimated their 2013 corn crop at a record 27-28 MMT, up sharply from 20.9 MMT a year ago. They estimate exports at 14.0 MMT. Weekly US corn export inspections came in at 6.365 million bushels versus trade forecasts of 5-10 million. The USDA estimated corn plantings at 95% complete, towards the top end of the expected range, up from 91% last week and not too far off the 5-year average for this time of 98%. The percentage of the crop rated good/excellent was unchanged form a week ago at 63%. Iowa has 14% of it's crop already rated poor/very poor, with Illinois not far behind at 13% in the bottom two categories. Emergence is at 85% versus 92% normally. Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.50, down 16 1/4 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD5.46, down 12 1/2 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market also fell, although not as heavily as corn or beans. Weekly export inspections of 24.37 million bushels were above the expected 10-15 million. Ukraine's Ag Ministry estimated their 2013/14 grain exports at 25-27 MMT versus 23 MMT this season, of that 9 MMT will be wheat (versus 7 MMT in 2012/13), they said. Russia’s Ag Ministry estimated their 2013/14 grain exports at 18-20 MMT. This season's exports are expected to be around 15 MMT. Unlike wheat states on the northern US Plains, spring planting across the border in Canada is going well. Alberta was 97% complete as of Friday. The USDA estimated spring wheat plantings up from 80% last week to 87% complete as of Sunday night. Normal for this time would be 96%. Emergence is at 71% versus 89% for the 5-year average. Winter wheat harvesting was placed at 5% complete versus 16% for the 5-year average. Good/excellent crop ratings fell from 32% to 31%. The percentage of the crop rated poor/very poor is far higher at 42%. The top producing state of Kansas has 47% of its crop rated as poor/very poor, with second top state Oklahoma having 53% of its crop in the bottom two categories. Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.89 3/4, down 6 1/2 cents; Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.26, down 9 cents; Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.11 1/2, down 8 1/4 cents.

Corn: Corn also rose, seeing the best gains coming in the deferred new crop months on continued heavy rains and planting delays in the Midwest. Monday night's crop progress report from the USDA is expected to show plantings at 93-95% done, up only marginally versus 91% as of last Sunday night. Weekend weather forecasts aren't friendly for much progress to me made in northern areas. "Over the next 5 days the latest GFS model has the heaviest rains falling from Central North Dakota to extreme Northern Montana and into Northwestern Illinois," say QT Weather. Consider though that even if we only end up with 95% of what was expected to be a 75-year high area get sown this year then that's still a respectable 92.4 million acres. Cut yields down to 155 bu/acre from the USDA's current 158 bu/acre and we could still end up with a record crop of almost 13.2 billion bushels allowing for a "normal" 8% abandonment rate. Informa estimated the US corn crop at 365.7 MMT, up more than 33% on last year. They have world output at a record 967 MMT, up 12.7%, with the EU crop rising 17.3% to 66.4 MMT (matching the 2004 record) and the Ukraine crop up 17.2% to a record 24.5 MMT. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said Argentina’s corn harvest is 61% complete, up from 54.7% a week ago and versus 64.8% a year ago at this time. They estimated production at 24.8 MMT, unchanged from last week. A consignment of 60 TMT of Argentine corn is en route to China, the trade is watching with great interest to see if it clears stringent Chinese quarantine rules OK. If it does it could be the first of many under a deal signed in February last year. It is probably not in China's best interests to reject the cargo, but that doesn't necessarily mean that they won't. The Mississippi river reopened a 5-mile stretch near St Louis, the river had been closed for 4 days due to high water. Ahead of next week's USDA report one trade survey estimated US corn production at 13.82 million bushels, versus 14.14 million last month. This season's ending stocks were forecast unchanged at 759 million bushels. The 2013/14 carryout is expected to come in at 1.830 billion bushels, down from 2.004 billion in May. Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.66 1/4, up 3 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD5.58 1/2, up 10 1/4 cents. For the week overall that puts nearby Jul 13 up 4 cents and Dec 13 down 8 3/4 cents.

Wheat: Nearby wheat closed modestly lower on all three exchanges. The window is rapidly closing for spring wheat planting, supporting prices in Minneapolis. US spring wheat planting was up just one point for the week to 80% done last Monday, and well behind the 5-year average of 92%. With another wet week behind it spring wheat planting may still only be around 83% done in Monday's upcoming report. Wheat production prospects elsewhere look pretty good though. Informa pegged the world wheat crop at a record 703.5 MMT, up 2.5 MMT on the USDA's May forecast and a 7.6% increase on last year with big gains seen coming from the Black Sea. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange's weekly crop report estimated that 19.4% of their 2013/14 wheat crop is planted versus 9% a week ago and 11.1% a year ago. They estimated the wheat area at 3.9 million hectares, unchanged from their previous estimate. The Argentine Ministry say that plantings will rise from 3.16 million hectares last year to 4.0 million in 2013/14, an increase of 26.6%. A production increase of that magnitude would add almost 3 MMT to their crop next season, based on the USDA's estimate of 11.0 MMT in 2012/13. Looking ahead to Wednesday's WASDE report, the USDA had Kansas wheat production at 768 million bushels in its May Crop Production Report, down 236 million, or 23%, from 1.004 billion in 2012. The average trade guess for next week is 757 million bushels, from within a range of 675-815 million bushels. Early yield reports from Texas and Oklahoma are highly variable. The 2012/13 US wheat marketing year is now over. The USDA will need to reduce their forecast for US exports of 28 MMT in the year that has just ended, increasing beginning stocks for 2013/14. They may also revisit their projection for US exports of 25.5 MMT in 2013/14 in the face of much stronger competition from the Black Sea in the year ahead, and also reticence from Asian buyers to US wheat following the newly emerging GMO problems. Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.96 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents; Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.35, down 3 1/2 cents; Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.19 3/4, down 1/2 cent. For the week that puts Chicago wheat 9 1/4 cents lower, with Kansas down 16 cents and Minneapolis a quarter of a cent easier.

Corn: Weekly export sales for corn were disappointing at at 107,200 MT of old crop and only 51,600 MT of new crop, versus expectations of a net 5-800 TMT combined. Old crop commitments are now 89.1% of the USDA target for the season. Despite that, corn found support from the continuing planting problems in the US and the weak dollar. "Not too much has changed in the Midwest outlook. Showers have continued this morning and there's a rainy and cool Midwest forecast for the next 5 days," said Martell Crop Projections. Yesterday's news that the weekly ethanol grind was at the strongest pace in a year was also supportive. Corn used in last week’s production is estimated at 92.9 million bushels, although that's still below the 94.82 million bushels per week required to meet this crop year’s USDA estimate of 4.6 billion bushels of demand from the ethanol sector. MDA CropCast cut their forecast for US corn production this year by 1 MMT from last week to 337.6 MMT, although that's still a 30% increase on last year. The FAO/AMIS estimated the world corn crop at a record 963 MMT, although that's 3 MMT less than the USDA it's a 10.3% increase on last year. They pegged global ending stocks at 174 MMT, far higher than the USDA's 155 MMT, and up almost 29% on 2012/13. CONAB estimated the Brazilian total corn crop at 78.5 MMT versus previous estimate of 78.0 MMT, with second crop corn performing better than originally anticipated. They said that Brazil has shipped 6.73 MMT of corn this calendar year so far (Jan/May). Brazilian total 2012/13 corn exports were estimated at 15.0 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate. Unconfirmed rumour from yesterday says that China may have bought up to 2.5 MMT of US new crop corn in the past few days. Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.63 1/4, up 2 1/2 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD5.48 1/4, up 6 cents.

Wheat: Weekly export sales for wheat were a combined 631,700 MT, slightly above trade expectations of 3-600 TMT. The report runs through to Thursday last week, which literally leaves one day of the US 2012/13 marketing year to be reported on next week. Cumulative shipments for 2012/13 stand at 26 MMT, with a further 1 MMT of sales remaining on the books unshipped. The USDA target for the season was 28 MMT, meaning that it looks like there will be around 2 MMT of extra beginning stocks to start off 2013/14. That will offset some of the anticipated 2013/14 shortfall in production. The US market is currently supported by these lower production prospects for this year. Winter wheat output is expected to be down, and spring wheat planting is way behind schedule. However, the BIG picture looks somewhat different. The FAO/AMIS today forecast a world wheat crop of a record 702 MMT in 2013/14, up 6.5% on last year, with ending stocks rising 5.5% to 173 MMT. Large production increases are expected from the usual discount sellers in the Black Sea. The USDA attaché in Moscow estimated the Russian 2013/14 grain crop at 91 MMT, up 28% on last year, with exports rising 50% to 24 MMT. Wheat production is seen at 53 MMT (+40.5%), with exports up 56% to 17 MMT. Japan bought 163,605 MT of it's usual mixture of US, Canadian and Australian wheat, but left US Western White wheat out of the equation following the recent GMO find. Jordan bought 100 TMT of optional origin wheat for September shipment at a level around USD70/tonne cheaper than current replacement levels from the US. With US wheat missing out into all but "traditional" homes once the Black Sea harvest kicks off a month from now, we could see US export sales drop off quite steeply in Q3 and Q4 of 2013. Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.97 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents; Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.38 1/2, down 4 3/4 cents; Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.20 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents.