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25 September 2016 | Online since 2003
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EU Reports

24 September 2016 | EU Reports
23/09/16 -- EU grains finished mostly lower on the day but higher for the week. Sterling weakness has once again come to the aid of London wheat this week.

The day ended with Nov 16 London up GBP0.15/tonne at GBP126.70/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was down EUR0.75/tonne at EUR161.25/tonne, Nov 16 corn was up EUR0.75/tonne at EUR162.75/tonne and Nov 16 rapeseed fell EUR4.00/tonne to EUR375.75/tonne.

For the week nearby London wheat was GBP3.10/tonne firmer, Paris wheat was up EUR2.25/tonne, corn gained EUR2.25/tonne and rapeseed was up EUR3.25/tonne.

Egypt's GASC were confirmed to have bought 240,000 MT of Russian wheat in their tender yesterday, paying around $179/tonne FOB, or circa $187/tonne C&F.

Whether the purchase marks a permanent change of policy on the issue of ergot remains to be seen, hence trader reluctance to participate in this latest tender.

FranceAgriMer pegged French corn crop conditions unchanged from a week ago at 54% good to very good. Harvesting of that crop is said to be 1% complete nationally versus 3% this time a year ago.

This stabilising of crop conditions may mean that he worst is over for the French crop, pegged today by Coceral at just 12.16 MMT, down 1 MMT from a year ago, and that was hardly a vintage crop.

Coceral placed the French total grain harvest at 54.5 MMT, down 24% on 71.7 MMT a year ago. Overall the EU-28 cereal crop was placed at 293 MMT versus 311 MMT in 2015.

The EU-28 soft wheat crop was estimated at 134 MMT, some 14 MMT less than their June forecast and 18 MMT below last year's record. Production in the UK was placed at 14.7 MMT, down nearly 11% on 16.5 MMT a year ago.

Barley production in Europe is now seen at 59 MMT versus 61 MMT last year. That's 4 MMT below their June estimate.

Total EU-28 corn output was forecast 1 MMT down from June, but 3 MMT above last year, at 61 MMT.

Whilst there might be less grain around in Europe this year, that isn't the case everywhere however. Wheat production in 2016/17 is forecast higher in Argentina, Australia, Canada, the US, Russia and Kazakhstan - all big exporting nations. Indeed, the current USDA forecast for the world wheat crop is 10 MMT higher than it was a year ago, and for corn it's up by 68 MMT.

Russia's 2016 grain harvest has now reached the 108 MMT mark with 13.5% of the planted area still left to cut, according to the Ag Ministry there. Wheat production currently stands at 73.2 MMT off 92.5% of the cultivated area. Barley harvesting is 94% complete at 18.5 MMT, and corn is 18.8% cut at 2.9 MMT. Plantings for the 2017 harvest at now past 60% complete on 10.5 million ha.

Kazakhstan said that their harvest is 80% complete at 18.4 MMT, with final production estimated at 22 MMT in bunker weight or 21 MMT in clean weight.



23 September 2016 | EU Reports
22/09/16 -- EU grains closed mostly higher.

The day ended with Nov 16 London wheat up GBP1.05/tonne at GBP126.55/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was up EUR0.50/tonne at EUR162.00/tonne, Nov 16 corn was unchanged at EUR162.00/tonne and Nov 16 Paris rapeseed was up EUR3.75/tonne to EUR379.75/tonne matching the best close on a front month since Jun 13.

Heavy rain in the past week, following almost three months of dryness, will allow planting of winter rapeseed to begin in France. Even so, hopes of increasing sowings from last year's 1.5 million ha may now be dashed, according to media reports.

Rain has also arrived in Ukraine to aid winter grain plantings there. More rain is in the forecast in the week ahead. "Yesterday, rains hit the north half of the country, even if they were light they are offering some relief to a situation becoming critical," said Agritel.

Back in France, the late summer drought appears to have harmed corn production, with early harvested yields said to be disappointing.

Bulgarian wheat has arrived in Dunkirk this week to feed the French starch producing industry. FranceAgriMer has French wheat imports at 700 TMT this season, although private estimates are 1 MMT or more (433 TMT in 2015/16).

Egypt's GASC are back in the market for wheat. "Doubts over Egypt’s ability to meet requirements for its bread subsidy scheme is potentially behind the change in ergot tolerance levels," said the HGCA.

"Each year Egypt’s import requirements are about 7% of total global imports," they added. Their absence from the market therefore upsets the global balance sheet.

Four sellers emerged with offers prepared to accept Egypt's terms, although it's unclear yet if any were successful.

Ukraine said that it had agreed "informal" limits on grain exports with shippers. These have been set at 16.5 MMT for wheat and 5.6 MMT for barley.

Morocco said that it had bought 310,000 MT of EU soft wheat under a preferential tariff agreement.

Brussels confirmed that they'd released 452,000 MT worth of soft wheat export licences, taking the volume granted so far this season to almost 25% higher than a year ago.

France is unusually only third behind Romania and Germany in the table of countries granted the most exports.



22 September 2016 | EU Reports
21/09/16 -- EU grains closed mostly lower in light consolidation from yesterday's gains. Fresh news was relatively scarce.

At the close Nov 16 London wheat was down GBP0.50/tonne at GBP125.50/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR0.50/tonne higher to EUR161.50/tonne, Nov 16 Paris corn was up EUR0.25/tonne at EUR162.00/tonne, Nov 16 Paris rapeseed was EUR2.25/tonne lower at EUR376.00/tonne.

The pound regained some lost ground against the US dollar after the Fed left US interest rates on hold and suggested that any rate rises would only be gradual. London wheat's gains yesterday were linked to sterling weakness versus the US currency.

Russia's IKAR raised their estimate for this year's corn harvest there from 14.0 MMT to 14.5 MMT (record), based on better than expected early yields.

Harvesting of that crop is 17.5% done so far at 2.7 MMT, with yields averaging 5.27 MT/ha versus 5.06 MT/ha a year ago.

Overall the Russian grain harvest now stands at 107.0 MMT off 85.4% of the planted area. Wheat harvesting is 91.2% complete at 72.7 MMT. Barley adds a further 18.4 MMT (93.4%) to the mix.

Russian plantings for the 2017 harvest are now reported at 58.4% complete on 10.1 million ha.

Kazakhstan's harvest is 88.6% done at 16.97 MMT.

Hungary is now gathering what they are forecasting to be a record 8 MMT corn crop. They've also harvested 1.8 MMT of rapeseed and 5.1 MMT of wheat. Wet weather means that only 40% of this year's wheat crop is suitable for milling.

There's rain in the 6-10 day forecast for Ukraine, which will be of benefit to growers there waiting to begin planting winter wheat.

Egypt's GASC overturned the recent move to buy only wheat with a zero tolerance to ergot, and immediately tendered for wheat for Oct 21-31 shipment with a 0.05% ergot tolerance. Results of that are expected tomorrow.



21 September 2016 | EU Reports
20/09/16 -- EU grains finished mostly higher, with nearby Nov 16 London wheat closing at a near one-month high.

The day ended with Nov 16 London up GBP1.60/tonne at GBP126.00/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was up EUR1.25/tonne at EUR162.00/tonne, Nov 16 corn was up EUR1.00/tonne at EUR161.75/tonne and Nov 16 rapeseed rose EUR3.50/tonne to EUR378.25/tonne.

London wheat got support from renewed sterling weakness, with the pound slipping to a one month versus the US dollar as confidence in the British currency wanes.

Platts reported that Indian buyers have booked around 500,000 MT of Ukraine wheat "under the radar" in the past 6 weeks as availability of state-owned supplies tightens.

The Russian Ag Ministry raised their official grain production estimate to 113 MMT. There's nothing stunningly surprising about that, officially they've already harvested 106.4 MMT with 15% of the planted area still left to go.

This year's Russian wheat harvest is now officially 72.4 MMT off 90.5% of the planted area. Corn harvesting is 16.5% complete at 2.5 MMT.

The ADHB reported the average protein content of UK milling wheat samples at a 10-year high 12.6% and hagbergs at 319, although specific weights are a bit low at only 77.2kg/hl - the lowest in the last 4 years in fact.

Still, that's thankfully much better than the average quality of this year's French crop.

Ukraine said that it's 2016 grain harvest now stands at 40.8 MMT off 72% of the planted area. New crop corn is 10% done at 2 MMT. Final production is estimated as high as 26 MMT.

Winter grains planting in Ukraine is 19% complete and 90% of OSR is now sown.

Kazakhstan said that it had harvested more than 16.5 MMT of an expected final crop of 22 MMT. Export potential this season is 9 MMT, according to the Ag Ministry.



20 September 2016 | EU Reports
19/09/16 -- EU grains closed mostly higher to start the week.

The day ended with Nov 16 London wheat up GBP0.80/tonne at GBP124.40/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was up EUR1.75/tonne at EUR160.75/tonne, Nov 16 corn rose EUR0.25/tonne to EUR160.75/tonne and Nov 16 Paris rapeseed was up EUR2.25/tonne to EUR374.75/tonne.

Egypt's Gasc held another fruitless wheat tender, picking up no offers in an effort to buy wheat for October shipment under the new strict zero tolerance to ergot rules.

APK Inform said that Russian grain exports via seaports fell to only 229.4 TMT last week, down from 429.8 TMT the previous week. Of the total shipped, 112.9 TMT was wheat, 77.5 TMT was barley and 32.5 TMT was corn.

Ukraine's seport exports were also down, but still considerably higher than Russia's at 596.1 TMT (819.7 TMT the previous week), of which 480.8 TMT was wheat, 104.5 TMT was barley and 10.8 TMT was corn.

Russia's season to date exports are down 2.7% year-on-year at 7.45 MMT (wheat 6.32 MMT, barley 1.0 MMT and corn 94 TMT).

Ukraine's exports so far are 8.51 MMT, of which 5.1 MMT is wheat, 2.75 MMT barley and 583 TMT corn.

The 2016 Russian harvest is now 83.9% done according to the Ag Ministry, standing at 105.5 MMT off 39.7 million ha. That includes 72 MMT of wheat (89.7% harvested), 18.3 MMT of barley (92.9% done) and 2.1 MMT of corn (14.1% complete).

Russian plantings for the 2017 harvest are said to be 54.3% done on an area of 9.4 million ha (versus 9.0 million a year ago).

Oil World estimated Australia's 2016 rapeseed crop at 3.6 MMT (up sharply from 2.94 MMT a year ago, despite only a 4% rise in planted area).



17 September 2016 | EU Reports
16/09/16 -- EU grains closed mostly a little higher on the day, but mixed for the week.

At the close Nov 16 London wheat was up GBP0.85/tonne at GBP123.60/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR0.25/tonne higher to EUR159.00/tonne, Nov 16 Paris corn was up EUR0.50/tonne at EUR160.50/tonne, Nov 16 Paris rapeseed was EUR0.75/tonne higher at EUR372.50/tonne.

For the week London wheat was GBP2.25/tonne firmer, Paris wheat rose EUR0.75/tonne, corn was EUR0.25/tonne easier and rapeseed slid EUR5.75/tonne.

A significantly weaker pound helped London wheat's cause this week, with sterling closing at 1.30 versus the US dollar and below 1.17 against the euro.

Egypt tendered for wheat for Oct 15-25 shipment, but no offers were received due to the new zero tolerance rules on ergot.

FranceAgriMer reported that French corn crop conditions declined again this week, but this time by only the one point in the good to very good category to 54%. Harvesting of that crop has yet to begin.

Russia said that their 2016 grain harvest is 81.8% done at 104.2 MMT. That includes 71.2 MMT of wheat off 87.8% of the planned area, along with 18.2 MMT of barley (92.3% harvested). New crop corn is 13.2% harvested producing more than 2 MMT so far.

Russian plantings (mostly winter wheat) for the 2017 harvest are already past halfway at 52% done on 9.0 million ha (8.1 million a year ago).

Ukraine said that it's winter grains (again mostly wheat) are 12% planted on 855k ha. Harvesting in Ukraine is 71% done at 40 MMT. Corn is 7% harvested at 1.26 MMT.

The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that grain exports so far this season have reached 8.5 MMT, including 5.1 MMT of wheat and 2.8 MMT of barley.

Kazakhstan's 2016 harvest is 63.9% done at 14.6 MMT, with an expected final production level of 22 MMT.

Back home, the HGCA said that "the reopening of the (Ensus) bioethanol plant is a step in the right direction in terms of boosting domestic wheat usage this season."

"Regional prices are influenced by regional supply and demand, effecting their relationship to UK futures. Currently ex-farm feed wheat in the North East are only at a narrow discount to UK futures," they noted.



16 September 2016 | EU Reports
15/09/16 -- EU grains finished mixed at the end of a dramatically dull session.

The day ended with Nov 16 London up GBP0.50/tonne at GBP122.75/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was down EUR0.50/tonne at EUR158.75/tonne, Nov 16 corn was down EUR0.25/tonne at EUR160.00/tonne and Nov 16 rapeseed rose EUR3.25/tonne to EUR371.75/tonne.

FranceAgriMer said that the average specific weight on this year's French wheat crop was 73 kg/hl, below the minimum requirement for flour making and well below export standard.

This suggests that "French millers will be looking for wheat outside of domestic supplies," said the HGCA.

They also point out that "France usually accounts for around 25% of total EU wheat production and is the main EU exporter, accounting for nearly a third of the EU’s wheat exports," placing the 2016/17 marketing campaign in a new light entirely.

Strategie Grains cast a further shadow over the entire EU crop, saying that 41% of this year's wheat is only of feed standard, up 7 points from last month's estimate and versus 29% a year ago.

They also cut their forecast for the EU-28 soft wheat crop by 1.4 MMT from a month ago to 136.5 MMT, a 10% reduction on last year. Exports in 2016/17 are seen at 23.7 MMT, down 8 MMT% (-25%) from last season.

They estimated this year's EU-28 corn crop at 59.3 MMT, down 1.3 MMT on previously.

Russia officially reduced the export duty on wheat to zero today. Their harvest currently stands at 103.2 MMT off 81.4% of the planned area. Wheat accounts for 70.8 MMT of that total off 86.9% of plan.

Brussels confirmed 371 TMT worth of EU soft wheat export licences had been issued this past week, with France picking up over 105 TMT worth. The season to date total is now 5.4 MMT.

APK Inform estimated Ukraine's 2016 corn crop at 26.23 MMT versus 23.6 MMT a year ago. They see 2016/17 exports at 17.5 MMT.



15 September 2016 | EU Reports
14/09/16 -- EU grains closed mixed on another day lacking in fresh stimulative news.

The day ended with Nov 16 London wheat down GBP0.15/tonne at GBP122.25/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was up EUR0.50/tonne at EUR159.25/tonne, Nov 16 corn rose EUR0.25/tonne to EUR160.25/tonne and Nov 16 Paris rapeseed was down EUR3.00/tonne to EUR368.50/tonne.

FranceAgriMer released their latest figures on production, exports and stocks, pegging the 2016 French wheat crop at a 33-year low of 28.47 MMT, down 30.3% on last year. They see exports falling 43.4% in the 2016/17 season to 11.90 MMT (intra-EU 6.59 MMT, -15.6%; outside-EU 4.70 MMT, -61.8%) and ending stocks declining 26.3% to 2.23 MMT.

Barley production is seen down 20% at 10.1 MMT, with exports falling 36.4% to 4.89 MMT and ending stocks rising 22.7% to 1.46 MMT.

Corn production is forecast at 12.2 MMT, exports at 5.29 MMT and ending stocks at 2.04 MMT.

In other news, the Russian harvest is now said to have reached 102.8 MMT off 80.9% of the planned area. Wheat accounts for 70.5 MMT of that (86.3% harvested), barley 18.1 MMT (91.7%) and corn 1.6 MMT (10.1%).

Russian plantings for the 2017 harvest are approaching halfway done (47.7% complete) on 8.3 million ha (7.4 million this time a year ago).

Rapeseed is doing it's best to resist the downwards pull of Chicago soybeans, but struggling.

"Helping rapeseed prices resist the magnitude of the downward pull is the news that Malaysian palm oil stocks have sunk to their lowest level in six years as output struggles to recover from the recent El Nino and exports soar," said the HGCA.

Production in Europe this year is only now forecast at 20 MMT (USDA Monday), the lowest since 2008/09 and versus 22.2 MMT a year ago and projected consumption of 23.9 MMT.



14 September 2016 | EU Reports
13/09/16 -- EU grains closed mixed. Fresh news was thin on the ground following yesterday's orgy of data from the USDA. Rapeseed follows Chicago beans lower.

At the close Nov 16 London wheat was up GBP0.45/tonne at GBP122.40/tonne, Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR0.50/tonne higher to EUR158.75/tonne, Nov 16 Paris corn was down EUR0.75/tonne at EUR160.00/tonne, Nov 16 Paris rapeseed was EUR3.75/tonne lower at EUR371.50/tonne.

"With wheat harvests across Europe, the Black Sea region and the US approaching completion, globally, grain markets remain on course for a fourth consecutive surplus," noted the HGCA.

The French Ag Min lowered their forecast for this year's wheat crop there from 29.1 MMT to 28.2 MMT. The size of the 2016 corn crop was also lowered from 13.5 MMT to 12.5 MMT. Rapeseed was raised from 4.5 MMT to 4.7 MMT.

The Ukraine grain harvest is now 70% complete at 39 MMT, with the new corn harvest 3% done at 487 TMT. Planting for the 2017 harvest is now 4% complete on 298k ha under dry conditions.

A slightly wetter forecast for next week was introduced for Ukraine’s winter wheat areas, although a dry pattern is still expected to dominate the region, said FCStone.

Winter wheat typically accounts for around 93% of the winter grains area in Ukraine. Winter OSR planting is more advanced at 86% done on 625k ha.

APK Inform said that Ukraine would export 17.7 MMT of corn in 2016/17, an increase of 6%. They forecast barley exports at 5 MMT, up 13%.

Ukraine's Jan/Aug grain exports were 23.1 MMT, up 6% on a year previously.

Russia's 2016 harvest is 79% complete at 101 MMT, including 69.8 MMT of wheat (85% harvested), 18 MMT of barley (91%) and 938.5 TMT of corn (6%). Planting for the 2017 harvest is 43% complete on 7.4 million ha versus 6.7 million this time last year.



13 September 2016 | EU Reports
12/09/16 -- EU grains finished mixed, rapeseed took a knock from late weakness in soybeans following the release of the September WASDE report from the USDA.

The day ended with Nov 16 London up GBP0.60/tonne at GBP121.95/tonne, new front month Dec 16 Paris wheat was unchanged at EUR158.25/tonne, Nov 16 corn was also unchanged at EUR160.75/tonne and Nov 16 rapeseed fell EUR3.00/tonne to EUR375.25/tonne.

Wheat got a late boost from the USDA cutting global ending stocks from 252.8 MMT to 249.1 MMT versus trade expectations of a more marginal drop to 251.4 MMT.

That triggered modest short-covering gains in US futures and helped drag EU wheat off the lows of the day.

In Europe, production was cut from 147.5 MMT to 145.3 MMT (down 9% vs 160 MMT a year ago) and 2016/17 export potential trimmed from 27 MMT to 26 MMT (down 25% year-on-year). EU wheat imports were raised 1 MMT to 7 MMT.

Elsewhere, production in Russia and Ukraine was unchanged at 72 MMT and 27 MMT respectively, but Kazakhstan was increased 1.5 MMT to 16.5 MMT. Russia's export potential was left unchanged at a record 30 MT, but Ukraine's and Kazakhstan's were increased 0.5 MMT each to 15 MMT and 8.5 MMT respectively.

The Ukraine increase came on the back of "projected demand from the EU for feed quality wheat".

The USDA also cut the size of this year's EU corn crop by 1 MMT to 61.1 MMT, but left imports unchanged at 12 MMT. This year's EU rapeseed crop was placed at 20 MMT (down 10% on 22.2 MMT last year).

In other news, APK Inform said that Ukraine seaports exported 819.7 TMT of grains last week, up from 661.4 TMT the previous week. Wheat accounted for 597.3 TMT of that total and barley 222.4 TMT. Thailand was the top home (110.6 TMT), followed by the UAE (67 TMT) and Israel (65.8 TMT).

Russian exports via seaports dropped from 637.1 TMT to 429.8 TMT, with wheat accounting for 391.5 TMT. Top home was Morocco (70.7 TMT).

Agritel said that this year's French corn crop might only make 12.5 MMT due to dry weather. FranceAgriMer cut crop conditions to 55% good/very good on Thursday versus 71% at the beginning of August.




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