At the finish Nov 16 London wheat was down GBP0.30/tonne at GBP136.95/tonne,
Dec 16 Paris wheat was down EUR0.25/tonne at EUR160.00/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn
ended EUR0.50/tonne lower at EUR163.50/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed closed
EUR1.25/tonne easier at EUR409.75/tonne.
For the week that places London wheat GBP3.80/tonne lower, with Paris wheat
down EUR8.25/tonne, corn off EUR3.00/tonne and rapeseed EUR8.00/tonne better.
Sterling was firmer against a weaker US dollar, and a particularly weak euro,
pressuring London wheat.
This was the fifth week in a row that the pound has gained on the euro - it's
best run in nine months as "hard-Brexit" fears eased a little. The
euro is facing an uncertain time ahead, with a variety of European votes, polls
and referendums to overcome against the backdrop of the constant fear of a growing
"protest vote" in Europe, following the Brexit and Trump surprise
The pound finished the day at a near 3-month euro high and a 2-month peak versus
the US dollar.
FranceAgriMer reported that 22% of the French winter wheat crop is at the early
tillering stage, down from 53% this time a year ago. Only 35% of their winter
barley crop is at the same stage compared to 73% this time last year.
French winter wheat rated good to very good was 94%, unchanged from a week
ago, but 3 points down on this time in 2015. Winter barley conditions were also
unchanged at 92% (98% a year ago).
In the UK, "About 35% of the planted UK winter wheat area was drilled
before the end of September, with the majority of the remaining crops drilled
during October, with just small areas (about 5%) drilled during early November,"
said the HGCA.
"Winter barley crops were drilled in good time, with almost 80% of crops
drilled by the end of September and the remainder drilled in early October,"
"While winter oilseed rape crops established well in the West of the UK,
today’s Crop Development report by ADAS confirms that the same can’t
be said for crops in the East. In eastern areas, particularly around Essex,
Hertfordshire, Bedfordshire and Cambridge, dry seedbeds meant that crops were
often slow to emerge and establish. Oilseed rape crop failures were reported
on a number of farms, particularly if cabbage stem flea beetle were active,"
In other news, Ukraine said that their 2016 harvest was now 99% complete at
64.4 MMT. That includes a corn harvest that's 90% complete at 24.2 MMT currently.
Algeria were said to have bought at least 120,000 MT of durum wheat for Jan/Feb
shipment in a tender. Tunisia are in the market for 109,000 MT of soft wheat
and 50,000 MT of feed barley.
At the close Nov 16 London wheat was down GBP0.75/tonne at GBP137.25/tonne,
Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR1.75/tonne lower at EUR160.75/tonne, Jan 17 Paris
corn was EUR0.50/tonne easier at EUR164.00/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was
up EUR3.00/tonne to EUR411.00/tonne.
Another day of sharply higher crude oil prices helped rapeseed push onto levels
last seen in April 2014.
Other than that, fresh news was lacking again. Saudi Arabia tendered for 960,000
MT of feed barley for Jan/Mare shipment and Tunisia are in for feed barley and
EU soft wheat exports only advanced by 247,188 MT this week, according to the
latest missive from Brussels. That takes the season to date total to a little
over 10 MMT.
The EU Commission forecast full season exports at 24 MMT, down 1 MMT from previously.
The day ended with Nov 16 London wheat down GBP0.55/tonne at GBP138.00/tonne,
Dec 16 Paris wheat was up a euro at EUR162.00/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn was down
EUR0.25/tonne to EUR164.50/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was up EUR3.50/tonne
The most noteworthy item of the day was OPEC's decision to cut crude oil production
for the first time in 8 years. That sent crude surging, taking rapeseed along
with it for the ride.
Paris rapeseed futures subsequently settled at their highest level since Apr
Rapeseed oil prices are up 10% on a year ago, and soybean oil prices have surged
21% during this time, note the HGCA.
"For rape oil, the increases are a further signal of the tight rapeseed
situation we find ourselves in this year, as well as being boosted by other
vegetable oils including palm oil," they say.
Earlier this week Oil World estimated EU Nov 1 rapeseed stocks down 12% y-o-y
at a 5-year low of 13.4 MMT.
In other news, Rusagrotrans said that Russia had exported 3.95 MMT of grains
in November - a record volume for the month and 26% more than in Nov 2015.
Total season to date exports (Jul/Nov) still slightly lag year ago levels however
at 17.72 MMT versus 17.92 MMT.
The Russian Ag Ministry said that their 2016 wheat harvest was 98.2% complete
at 75.9 MMT. Corn harvesting is 83% done at 13.9 MMT.
At the finish Nov 16 London wheat was down GBP0.95/tonne at GBP138.55/tonne,
Dec 16 Paris wheat was down EUR4.25/tonne at EUR161.00/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn
ended EUR1.25/tonne lower at EUR164.75/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed closed
EUR1.75/tonne higher at EUR404.50/tonne.
The GBP/EUR remains hovering around the 1.1750 mark, having fallen below 1.10
in recent weeks, keeping a lid on London wheat price rally attempts. Is this
just a corrective period of appreciation, not to be confused with a long term
Analysts say that first resistance for the pound is now around the 1.1875 level,
with stronger resistance at 1.20. A push above the latter would be needed to
argue the case for more extended sterling upside.
A drop below 1.1675 would be needed to signal that an interim top has been
seen meanwhile, they opine.
Strategie Grains forecast a recovery in EU-28 soft wheat production to 152.9
MMT next year, some 8 MMT above output in 2016, even if below the levels achieved
in 2015 (a record 159.4 MMT) and 2014.
They see EU-28 soft wheat exports in 2017/18 at 30 MMT, up 5.7 MMT on this
Egypt's GASC bought 240,000 MT of Russian wheat in a tender for Jan 2-11 shipment
at prices slightly below those paid last time.
Russia reported their 2016 total grain harvest to be 96.7% complete at 124.4
MMT. Corn harvesting is 82.6% done at 13.9 MMT.
Ukraine's harvest is now 95% complete at 62 MMT, including 22.9 MMT of corn
off 86% of the planned area.
At the close Nov 16 London wheat was down GBP1.25/tonne at GBP139.50/tonne,
Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR3.00/tonne lower at EUR165.25/tonne, Jan 17 Paris
corn was EUR0.50/tonne easier at EUR166.00/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was
up EUR1.00/tonne to EUR402.75/tonne.
Nov 17 London wheat failed to hold onto gains above the GBP140/tonne mark,
which looks like resistance. Paris wheat and corn look range-bound in the mid
Rapeseed did manage to hold above the key EUR400/tonne level against a background
of tightness in availability in the EU. Oil Word estimated EU-28 Nov 1 rapeseed
stocks at 13.4 MMT, down 12% on this time a year ago and a 5-year low.
Russia's grain exports via seaports totalled 436.1 TMT last week, down slightly
from the previous week. That total included 351.8 TMT (80.7%) of wheat, 67.7
TMT of corn and 13.6 TMT of barley.
YTD exports are still lagging year ago levels, but are forecast to hold up
during the second half of the season. Rusagrotrans forecast November grain exports
at 3.7-3.8 MMT, a 20% increase on a year ago. Wheat will account for around
2.55-2.60 MMT of that total (up 16% versus 2015), with barley a further 250
TMT and corn an additional 850-900 TMT, they predict.
December imports will hold, and roughly match year ago levels, at 3.8 MMT,
The Russian Ag Ministry said that their harvest had now reached 124.3 MMT off
96.7% of the planned area. Wheat and barley harvesting is almost over, corn
harvesting is 82% done at 13.7 MMT.
They said that Russian grain exports (to Nov 21) were down 0.8% at 15.82 MMT.
Wheat accounts for 78.7% of that total at 12.45 MMT.
Ukraine said that their 2016 harvest was 95% complete at 61.6 MMT. Corn harvesting
is 84% done at 22.4 MMT.
APK Inform said that Ukraine seaports exported 836.3 TMT of grains last week,
up from 616.7 TMT the previous week. That included 327.3 TMT of wheat, 438.1
TMT of corn and 70.9 TMT of barley.
Algeria tendered for 50,000 MT of hard wheat of optional origin for Jan/Feb
shipment and 50-75,000 MT of feed barley for January delivery.
The day ended with Nov 16 London wheat up GBP0.95/tonne at GBP140.75/tonne,
Dec 16 Paris wheat was unchanged at EUR168.25/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn was also
unchanged EUR166.50/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was down EUR2.25/tonne to
For the week London wheat gained GBP0.85/tonne, Paris wheat and corn both added
EUR0.75/tonne and rapeseed advanced EUR4.25/tonne.
Many traders in the US remained absent following yesterday's Thanksgiving Day
holiday, so activity was light and news was thin.
FranceAgriMer said that the French corn harvest was 98% complete, up 3 points
in a week and the same as this time a year ago.
French winter wheat crop conditions good to very good fell one point from a
week ago to 94%, which is 4 points below this time last year. Winter barley
crop conditions were unchanged at 92% good to very good (versus 98% a year ago).
Russia said that they'd harvested 124 MMT of grains off 96.6% of the planned
area. Corn harvesting is now 80.5% complete at 13.4 MMT.
Canadian growers are struggling to wrap up the last of their 2016 harvest with
6% of their spring wheat and 4% of canola crops still remaining in the field
in the province of Saskatchewan as of Nov 21.
At the finish Nov 16 London wheat was unchanged at GBP139.80/tonne, Dec 16
Paris wheat was down EUR0.50/tonne at EUR168.25/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn ended
EUR0.25/tonne firmer at EUR166.50/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed closed EUR2.00/tonne
higher at EUR404.00/tonne.
With America shut fresh news was always likely to be thin on the ground, and
so it proved.
EU soft wheat exports reached 481,000 MT this week, up 39% on a week ago and
taking the season to date total to 9.4 MMT, a 9% increase on this time a year
EU barley exports were only 51,000 MT, down 55% on last week.
Russia reported their 2016 corn harvest to be 79.6% complete at 13.3 MMT. The
last of the spring wheat and barley harvests are also still being wrapped up.
Russian winter plantings for the 2017 harvest are just about done on 17.3 million
ha, with crops mostly covered by a thin layer of snow.
This is around 1 million ha more than last year and a new record high, say
Agritel. Winter wheat will consist of around 14 million ha of this total, they
The euro remains weak, supporting Paris grains. The pound hovers around 1.1750
versus the single currency - a 2 1/2 month high.
US markets remain closed Friday morning but will trade a holiday-shortened
session Friday afternoon (London time).
At the close Nov 16 London wheat was unchanged at GBP138.75/tonne, Dec 16 Paris
wheat was EUR0.50/tonne lower at EUR168.75/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn was unchanged
at EUR166.25/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed had gained EUR7.75/tonne to EUR406.00/tonne.
It was April 2014 that we last saw Paris rapeseed close this high. "Rapeseed
has been boosted by the surge of veg oils after the decision from US Environmental
Protection Agency (EPA) to raise the biofuels requirements to 19.28 billion
gallons for 2017 vs 18.11 this year. This volume will be spread between 15 billion
of conventional biofuel which is mainly produced from corn and 4.28 billion
of biodiesel produced from soy oil," noted Agritel.
Malaysian palm oil futures touched 4-year highs and US soybean oil prices surged
on the news. US markets are closed tomorrow for Thanksgiving.
Otherwise fresh news was generally lacking. Spain said that they'd imported
1.25 MMT of grains in September, a 19% reduction versus the same month in 2015.
Wheat imports were 878.8 TMT versus 967.7 TMT a year previously.
Algeria tendered for 50,000 MT of feed barley for January shipment. Jordan
cancelled their tender for 100,000 MT of optional origin hard wheat and immediately
re-tendered for the same as is their want. Bangladesh are said to have agreed
to buy 200,000 MT of Russian wheat.
Russia said that their 2016 grain harvest had limped to 96.4% complete at 123.5
MMT in bunker weight. Wheat accounts for 75.8 MMT of that total and barley a
further 19.1 MMT. Harvesting of both is nearly over. Corn harvesting is ongoing
at 78.8% complete for a crop of 13.1 MMT to date.
Winter plantings for the 2017 harvest are just about complete in Russia at
Rusagrotrans forecast Russia's first half 2016/17 (Jul/Dec) grain exports at
20.5 MMT, down 1 MMT on the same period in 2015/16.
Ex-farm prices in the North East of England are now amongst the highest in
the country and above the level of London futures, said the HGCA. Strong demand
from the bioethanol sector seems to be the reason, they noted.
"However, the potential for further gains could be more limited as the
gap between imported maize and UK wheat prices is now narrowing. The wider price
gap between the North East and other regions also increases the incentive to
haul wheat into the region," they added.
The day ended with Nov 16 London wheat up GBP0.45/tonne at GBP138.75/tonne,
Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR1.00/tonne higher at EUR169.25/tonne, Jan 17 Paris
corn rose half a euro to EUR166.25/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was down
EUR1.50/tonne to EUR398.25/tonne.
The EU Commission reported "somewhat difficult sowing and emergence conditions
but no major concerns," for EU crops.
"Sowing and emergence conditions for small grains were somewhat difficult,
but within the normal range, whereas rapeseed sowing activities and emergence
were hampered by overly dry conditions in France, Benelux and Germany,"
For winter wheat: "In much of Germany, the Benelux countries and northern
and western France, overly dry soil conditions during the normal sowing window
(second half of September and first half of October) delayed sowing activities
and/or resulted in the poor emergence of crops that had already been sown,"
For winter rapeseed: "Precipitation was clearly below average from mid-August
to mid-September in large parts of France and Germany, the two main EU-28 producers
of rapeseed. As a consequence of the dry conditions, part of the rapeseed was
not sown at all in France.
"Conditions were similar in Germany, especially in the North and East
of the country, where persistent dry conditions often prevented rapeseed from
emerging properly. This is especially the case on heavy soils, which were already
dry at the time of sowing. The early establishment of rapeseed was not optimal,
and many fields show uneven crop development. Unfavourable dry conditions continued
throughout October...this led to some re-ploughing," they added.
In other news, Ukraine reported that their harvest was 94% complete at 60.15
MMT. That includes 79% of this year's corn for a crop of 21.03 MMT so far.
Russia said that it's harvest was 96.2% complete at 122.8 MMT, including 12.4
MMT of corn (74.8% harvested).
India are reported to have been active buying Ukraine wheat lately, booking
around 1 MMT in recent weeks. Traders there say that this year's Indian wheat
harvest was likely only around 88 MMT versus the official government estimate
of 93.5 MMT.
Ukraine said that their grain exports so far this season (to Nov 22) are 16.8
MMT. That includes 9.5 MMT of wheat, 3.2 MMT of corn and almost 4 MMT of barley.
At the finish Nov 16 London wheat was down GBP1.60/tonne at GBP138.30/tonne,
Dec 16 Paris wheat was up EUR0.75tonne at EUR168.25/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn
ended EUR0.50/tonne firmer at EUR165.75/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed closed
EUR2.25/tonne higher at EUR399.75/tonne.
London wheat seems unable, for the time being at least, to break and hold above
GBP140/tonne on front month Nov 16. A weak euro, rather than a string sterling,
today didn't help. The pound closed above 1.17 against the single currency for
the first time in more than 2 months.
Market analysts fear an anti-EU backlash vote coming up in the French and German
general elections in the New Year, undermining the entire future of the eurozone,
following Brexit and the surprise Trump election. That's putting the euro under
pressure, supporting the market on the continent.
Rapeseed meanwhile continues to test the EUR400/tonne level, helped today by
firmer crude oil prices. It hasn't closed above this level since April 2014.
The Ukraine Ag Ministry raised their forecast for this year's grain crop from
63 MMT to 64 MMT. Harvesting of that is now said to be 97% complete at 59.96
MMT. That includes a corn harvest that's 79% complete at 20.84 MMT.
With the corn harvest winding down, that's the crop on which they are now starting
to concentrate their main export effort. Total grain exports via seaports last
week were 616.7 TMT (up from 463.3 TMT the previous week). That included 158
TMT of wheat, 408.2 TMT of corn and 50.5 TMT of barley.
The Ministry said that Ukraine winter wheat planting is now 95% complete on
5.9 million ha, along with 85% of the winter barley area (877k ha).
Winter rapeseed planting in Ukraine increased for the first time since 2013
this year, with the Ministry saying that 85% of the crop was sown in the optimum
time window. Emergence is placed at 90%.
Russia's seaports exported 444.6 TMT of grains last week, down from 578.8 TMT
The previous week, as their efforts struggle a little. Last week's total included
326.1 TMT of wheat, and 115.2 TMT of corn.
The Russian Ministry said that season to date grain exports (to Nov 16) total
14.77 MMT, a 4.6% decrease versus the same period in 2015/16. Wheat accounts
for 79% (11.69 MMT of that total, with barley a further 1.55 MMT and corn 1.45