At the close, Jan 15 London wheat was went off the board GBP0.45/tonne lower
at GBP126.30/tonne, Mar 15 Paris wheat was EUR0.50/tonne higher at EUR198.50/tonne,
Mar 15 Paris corn was EUR1.00/tonne firmer at EUR159.25/tonne and Feb 15 Paris
rapeseed was u EUR1.25/tonne at EUR356.50/tonne.
For the week overall there was very little movement, London wheat was unchanged,
whilst the Paris market rose one euro. Corn was down a quarter and rapeseed
fell half a euro. The market is still largely ignoring what is going on in Russia
and Ukraine, both militarily and crop-wise.
The big story of the week that has grabbed everyone's attention has to be the
ECB move to pump more than EUR1 trillion into the eurozone economy which sent
the euro tumbling to an 11 year low against the US dollar and a new 7 year low
versus the pound. The latter meanwhile fell below 1.50 against the US currency
today, a level not seen since July 2013.
Despite previous denials, the Russian Deputy PM has apparently now admitted
that the recent tough stance on phytosanitary rules was a deliberate attempt
to limit grain exports in January, before the new export duty comes in on Feb
1. These rules will be relaxed after that date for the purposes of "transparency
in the market" he said! That's Russian politics for you.
He said that Russia will export around 28 MMT of grains this season, which
is some 6 MMT more than they have currently shipped, according to his figures.
The last numbers released from the Russian Ag Ministry said that the country
had exported 21.571 MMT of grains to Jan 15.
The USDA currently have Russia down to export 27.3 MMT of wheat, corn and barley
Europe will be the most likely beneficiary of any shortfall in Russian exports,
particularly given the recent demise of the euro.
Brussels said that they'd issued 728 TMT of soft wheat export licences this
past week, up 32% on the previous week. That takes the marketing year to date
total so far to just over 16 MMT, which is 4% less than last year's record pace.
Europe has also exported 531 TMT of durum wheat so far this season, putting
all wheat exports at almost 16.6 MMT, which is 55% of the USDA's 30 MMT target
for the season.
Brussels also granted 286 TMT worth of barley export licences, taking the season
so far total to 4.77 MMT, which is in line with a year ago. Cumulative corn
import licences are down 23% versus last year at 5.14 MMT.
Ukraine's Food Minister denied that the country has any plans to limit grain
exports, despite it being widely reported recently that a cap on milling wheat
sales had recently been agreed with the country's exporters. Ukraine politics
clearly isn't much different to that in Russia.
Looking ahead to 2015 production prospects, Russia's Institute for Agricultural
Market Studies (IKAR) were said to have estimated the country's grain production
potential this year at only 86 MMT, a sharp 17.3% fall on output this season.
Wheat will account for 50 MMT of that total, a 15.3% fall compared to this season,
Front month Paris wheat hasn't closed outside the EUR190-200/tonne range so
far this year, whilst Jan 15 London wheat has been stuck in the GBP125-135/tonne
for the same period. Paris corn seems content to trade in the range of EUR155-165/tonne
and Paris rapeseed hasn't been outside the EUR354-364/tonne area since the opening
day of the year.
At the close Jan 15 London wheat was down GBP0.05/tonne at GBP126.75/tonne,
Mar 15 Paris wheat was EUR0.25/tonne higher at EUR198.00/tonne, Mar 15 Paris
corn was EUR1.25/tonne higher at EUR158.25/tonne and Feb 15 Paris rapeseed was
up EUR0.25/tonne to EUR355.25/tonne.
Something surely has to give, but what? For the bulls, Russia and Ukraine surely
hold the key?
Russia now has more than 9,000 soldiers and 500 tanks, heavy artillery and
armoured personnel carriers in eastern Ukraine, the latter's President says,
according to a report on the BBC today.
A report on Reuters meanwhile yesterday suggested that Russia's President Putin
will settle for the autonomy from Kiev, but within Ukraine's borders, of the
rebel-held Donetsk and Luhansk regions - but nothing less.
Relations between Russia and the West are getting sensitive again. That won't
help the Russian rouble, or the country's inflation rate - now running at 11.9%,
up from 11.4% at the end of 2014, and moving rapidly higher. Food inflation
is already said to be at 16%.
This is one of the main reasons that Russian farmers are content to sit on
what remaining grain stocks they have, rather than sell them to the government's
intervention programme - this is the nearest thing they've got to dollars right
On top of that, crop prospects for 2015 in some parts aren't looking good at
all due to "extreme temperatures and lack of snow early in the winter".
In the Volgograd region, of the 1.3 million hectares of winter grains that have
been planted, only 18% are said to be in good condition, with 42% classed as
"satisfactory" and 40% in a "poor" state.
Russian growers' ability to be able to fund a spring replanting and inputs
purchasing programme must be called into question given their lack of access
to credit and rapidly rising inflation, combined with the hefty decline in value
of the rouble.
Back in Ukraine again, the President of their Agrarian Union said that the
cost of sowing spring crops there in 2015 would be around 40-50% up on a year
ago. Local Ammonium Nitrate prices have doubled in the last 12 months, and diesel
prices have risen 60%, he said.
These guys are also going to find it very tough to fund the purchase of their
inputs this year then it would seem.
Whilst the global market isn't oblivious to these developments, its reaction
is strangely subdued.
The bears are pointing to economic slowdown in China, the alarming slump in
crude oil prices, potentially record world soybean production (and ending stocks)
this year, and fickle fund money getting out of commodities and saying that
the worst isn't over yet.
The ECB meanwhile announced no move on interest rates in the eurozone, and
that they are to unleash more than EUR1 trillion in quantitative easing, pumping
EUR60 a month into a bond-buying programme. The euro sunk to a new 7 year low
of 1.32 against the pound following the news.
The pound was down against both the euro and the US dollar. The minutes from
the Bank of England's January meeting showed a unanimous vote to keep interest
rates on hold, and hinted at less willingness to consider a rise for some time
At the close, Jan 15 London wheat was up GBP0.55/tonne to GBP126.80/tonne;
Mar 15 Paris wheat was up EUR1.25/tonne to EUR197.75/tonne; Mar 15 Paris corn
was EUR0.25/tonne higher at EUR157.00/tonne; Feb 15 Paris rapeseed rose EUR0.25/tonne
"A surge in violence in east Ukraine is undermining international hopes
that Russia's financial crisis and Western sanctions will force President Vladimir
Putin to change policy on the conflict," said a report on Reuters. There
is "a growing sense of foreboding" as the as fighting between government
forces and the separatists intensifies, they said.
Rusagrotrans trimmed their forecast for Russian grain exports this month from
1.5 MMT to 1.3 MMT, a near 60% decline compared with those in December. Exports
during the first half of the month were just 588 TMT, they noted.
The Russian Ag Ministry estimated domestic grain consumption at 72.8 MMT this
season, which is around 3 MMT higher than normal, presumably due to increased
demand from the feed sector due to the ban on importing various Western food
Russian wheat consumption this season will total 37.4 MMT, they said. That's
2.4 MMT higher than the USDA currently forecast.
Morgan Stanley estimated Russian inflation at the end of 2015 to be running
at 13.7%, which would be higher then the 11.4% that it finished 2014 at. It's
also far higher than the Russian Ministry's own official forecast of 7.5%.
Inflation continuing at those levels will not encourage Russian farmers to
sell their grain. The government picked up a miserly less than 3,000 MT of grain
at today's latest round of purchases for the intervention fund.
Meanwhile, there's continued uncertainty over the health of winter sown crops
in both Russia and Ukraine. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, there's
also a huge question mark hanging over the ability of farmers in both countries
to afford spring inputs.
Russian lending to farmers is reported to be down 22% in rouble terms, despite
the alarming devaluation of that currency meaning that it really should be far
higher than year ago levels.
In Ukraine, winter grains in the Donetsk region are said to be rated 37% good,
44% satisfactory and 17% weak/thinned - the latter figure being about in line
with the national average of 18%. A year ago that figure was 8%.
The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that they'd exported 20.77 MMT or grains so far
this season, including 8.5 MMT of wheat, 8.3 MMT of corn and 3.75 MMT of barley.
There's no sign yet of the memorandum due to be issued by the Ministry, detailing
exactly what was agreed between them and Ukraine grain exporters at last week's
meeting when an "informal" cap on wheat exports was mooted.
At the close, Jan 15 London wheat was up GBP0.45/tonne at GBP126.25/tonne,
Mar 15 Paris wheat was EUR0.50/tonne higher at EUR196.50/tonne, Mar 15 Paris
corn was EUR1.50/tonne lower at EUR156.25/tonne and Feb 15 Paris rapeseed was
down EUR3.25/tonne at EUR354.75/tonne.
Russia only managed to pick up around 7,000 MT of wheat at today's latest intervention
purchase round. That takes the total bought so far this season to a relatively
miserly 320 TMT out of a government target of at least 3 MMT, as growers continue
to hold onto their stocks as a hedge against inflation and the falling rouble.
There are now rumblings of the Russian government "withdrawing state support"
from those farmers who continue to hoard their grain stocks.
The Deputy Russian PM also said that further and "more radical proposals"
could be introduced to curb wheat exports should the new Feb 1 duty prove to
be not enough to curb foreign sales, and encourage growers to sell their stocks
to the intervention fund.
The latest customs data shows that Russia exported less than 600 TMT of grains
in the first half of January, down sharply from around 1.5 MMT in the corresponding
period in December. Whilst this can partly be attributed to adverse weather
conditions and the extended Orthodox Christmas celebrations, certainly some
of this slow down can also be blamed on difficulties in obtaining the necessary
The combined effect of these new developments is likely to cap Russian wheat
exports at around 18 MMT this season, which is around 4 MMT lower than original
expectations. (The USDA themselves were forecasting Russian wheat exports of
22 MMT in 2014/15 as recently as December).
So this potentially leaves an extra 4 MMT of global wheat demand to switch
to other origins, of which Europe is expected to pick up the lion’s share
of the business.
In other news, Kazakhstan said that their Jan 1 grains stocks were 13.15 MMT,
of which 11 MMT was wheat.
Ukraine said that growers there had planted 8 million hectares of winter grains,
including 6.8 million ha of wheat. In addition they'd also planted almost 900k
ha of winter OSR, said the Ag Ministry.
Around 3% of winter grains haven't yet emerged, and 18% of what has emerged
remains in a weak/thinned state.
Jordan are tendering for 100,000 MT each of wheat and barley for Jun/Jul shipment.
At the close, Jan 15 London wheat was down GBP0.50/tonne at GBP125.80/tonne,
Mar 15 Paris wheat was EUR1.50/tonne lower at EUR196.00/tonne, Mar 15 Paris
corn was EUr1.25/tonne easier at EUR158.25/tonne and Feb 15 Paris rapeseed was
up EUR1.00/tonne to EUR358.00/tonne.
Fresh news was predictably light.
Egypt's Supplies Ministry said that it had enough wheat now bought to last
it through to mid-May, which is well after their own local harvest begins. That
said, these sorts of announcements are routine and don't rule them out of re-entering
the market again soon, especially if prices dip further.
Last week's latest GASC tender purchased wheat for the end of February, which
suggests that they will probably be back to buy Mar 1-10 shipment in the not
too distant future.
They're reported to have bought a fraction over 3 MMT of wheat on the international
market for 2014/15 shipment so far this season, which is around 1 MMT less than
they'd purchased this time a year ago.
For the whole of last season they finished up buying 5.46 MMT of wheat on the
international market, so even if they were to end 2014/15 buying a million tonnes
(or even more) less than they did then, there's probably still a fair bit of
interest to come from them before the season ends.
French wheat would remain the red-hot favourite to pick up the majority of
Russia said that they'd exported 588 TMT of grains in the first 15 days of
the month. That's only around a third of the 1.718 MMT exported in the first
17 days of December.
Exports would therefore seem to have slowed up sharply. Although adverse weather
conditions can be blamed for at least some of this decline, it's an interesting
statistic nonetheless, given that shippers are supposed to be trying to rush
through existing commitments before the Feb 1 export duty kicks in.
Wheat accounts for 495 TMT, or 84% of the total shipped out this month so far.
Russia's 2014/15 season to date grain exports are now 21.571 MMT, a rise of
31.6% on a year ago. Wheat accounts for 16.852 MMT of that volume, or 78% of
the total. Barley adds a further 3.26 MMT and corn an additional 1.183 MMT.
Looking ahead, "wheat prospects in Europe (for the 2015 harvest) are not
as favourable as last season. This is likely due to unseasonably warm temperatures
in the autumn growing season. September-November temperatures were 2-4 C (4-7
F) above normal, encouraging high evaporation and sapping field moisture,"
suggest Martell Crop Projections.
"Mid-November satellite images reveal sub-par vegetative health in all
3 of the top wheat producing countries of France, Germany and the United Kingdom,
compared to last year," they say.
Topsoil moisture has increased sharply with heavy rainfall in northern Europe
in the last 30 days however, they note. Conversely, countries in south eastern
Europe like Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria have turned drier after widespread
flooding in the autumn, they add.
In other news, India said that it had planted 30.4 million hectares of wheat
for the 2015 harvest, which is around 1 million less than a year ago at this
The day ended with Jan 15 London wheat up GBP0.80/tonne to GBP126.30/tonne;
Mar 15 Paris wheat was up EUR3.25/tonne to EUR197.50/tonne; Mar 15 Paris corn
was EUR1.25/tonne higher at EUR159.50/tonne; Feb 15 Paris rapeseed rose EUR3.00/tonne
For the week, Jan 15 London wheat was still down GBP4.90/tonne, although Mar
15 Paris wheat was EUR2.75/tonne firmer. Mar 15 Paris corn fell EUR3.25/tonne
versus last Friday and Feb 15 Paris rapeseed was down EUR4.25/tonne.
Brussels announced last night that they'd granted 553 TMT worth of soft wheat
export licences this past week, taking the cumulative season to date total to
15.3 MMT, which is 3.8% down on where things stood a year ago. The USDA currently
estimate EU all wheat exports to fall by 6% in 2014/15 compared to last season's
Brussels also approved that Ukraine could export 950 TMT of wheat, 400 TMT
of corn and 250 TMT of barley to the EU in a preferential duty-free deal. The
new quota applied for the whole of the 2015 calendar year.
How much of that might be taken up in the remainder of the 2014/15 crop year
(Jul/Jun) remains to be seen, as the Ukraine authorities appear to be looking
to restrict wheat exports, particularly milling wheat exports, at this moment
The Ukraine Ministry said that the country had shipped 20.5 MMT of grains so
far this season, including 8.44 MMT of wheat, 8.10 MMT of corn and 3.73 MMT
of barley. In the case of wheat that's around 77% of the USDA's forecast for
the season. It's also already 1 MMT more than the USDA's barley estimate for
the whole of 2014/15.
The pound settled at a seven year high 1.31 versus the beleaguered euro tonight.
Further euro nervousness probably lies ahead, with the Greek elections due next
weekend, and an ECB sponsored full-blown quantitative easing programme seemingly
just around the corner.
The pound is up almost 2.5% against the euro versus last Friday, which Bloomberg
say is its biggest weekly advance in almost two years.
"This has reduced Paris rapeseed futures in GBP/tonne terms and means
that UK rapeseed prices are likely to under increased pressure in order to remain
competitive in EU markets," said the HGCA. Similar comments might also
be applied to UK wheat.
Meanwhile the 55% slump in global crude oil values from the highs of last summer
continue to challenge the UK, EU and US bioethanol/ethanol industries to maintain
some sort of profitability.
At the close, Jan 15 London wheat was down GBP0.30/tonne at
GBP125.50/tonne, Mar 15 Paris wheat was EUR2.25/tonne higher at EUR194.25/tonne,
Mar 15 Paris corn was EUR1.25/tonne firmer at EUR158.25/tonne and Feb 15 Paris
rapeseed was down EUR1.25/tonne at EUR354.00/tonne.
The Swiss Central Bank shocked the markets by abandoning it's
1.20 floor versus the euro today, with the Swiss Franc immediately surging 25%
against the single currency.
Whilst the continued demise of the euro looks set to further
boost EU wheat export hopes, it will do little to aid those from the UK though.
French analysts Strategie Grains raised their forecast for EU-28
soft wheat exports this season by 2.1 MMT to 29.3 MMT, which would now equal
the record volume shipped out in 2013/14.
FranceAgriMer yesterday raised their estimate for French soft
wheat exports to non-EU destinations by 300 TMT to 8.8 MMT, as they continue
to pick up extra export business.
They said that the Russian export duty that comes into force
on Feb 1 will keep an estimated 2.5-3.0 MMT of Russian wheat off the international
market. That does of course however add a similar volume to be carried into
next season's beginning stocks.
Despite an improved export outlook, FranceAgriMer estimated
French soft wheat ending stocks at 4.34 MMT, which is still almost 2 MMT (or
85%) higher than at the end of last season.
French corn stocks were seen at 4 MMT following record production
this year, that's up 74% versus 2013/14. Barley carryout was estimated at 1.5
MMT, an increase of 44% versus 12 months previously.
Ukraine said that the country had exported 20.2 MMT of grains
so far this season, including 8.35 MMT of wheat, 7.85 MMT of corn and 3.72 MMT
APK Inform said that they expect Ukraine to export 32.9 MMT
of grains in total in 2014/15, up 2.9% on last season, and 800 TMT above their
Wheat exports will rise 16.4% to 10.8 MMT, although corn shipments
will drop 8.8% to 18.0 MMT, they added.
Egypt's GASC bought 240,000 MT of French wheat for Feb 19-29
shipment in their second tender of 2015. The price paid was substantially cheaper
than that of only a week ago. There were no Russian or Ukraine offers, and Romanian
wheat was priced out, as too was Argentine origin.
Libya are also tendering for 50,000 MT of optional origin milling
Jan 15 London wheat ended down GBP3.20/tonne at GBP125.0/tonne, Mar 15 Paris
wheat was EUR3.50/tonne lower at EUR192.00/tonne, Mar 15 Paris corn was down
EUR2.50/tonne at EUR157.00/tonne and Feb 15 Paris rapeseed fell EUR1.75/tonne
Crude oil slumped to a new near 6-year low today, just a few days after one
well-known Saudi prince said that $100/barrel would never be seen again - a
bold statement considering that it was above that level less than 6 months ago.
Reports out of Ukraine indicate that at yesterday's "routine" meeting
between the government and grain trading houses it was "agreed" to
limit milling wheat exports for the remainder of the season to 1.2 MMT.
Of that total the Ag Ministry only want no more than 400 TMT to be shipped
out between now and March 15th, when a better grasp can be had on the health,
or otherwise, of the country's winter wheat crop. Provided that conditions are
assessed as "good" then the remaining 800 TMT of that quota can then
What proportion of the crop needs to be "good" for that to happen
is unclear. Current estimates have around 18-20% of the crop in a poor condition.
Agritel report a new Ukraine all wheat export objective of 12 MMT, of which
the Ministry said earlier in the week that 8.34 MMT has been shipped already.
They also report on a barley export target of 4.2 MMT (3.72 MMT shipped already)
and a corn aim of 20.2 MMT (versus 7.77 MMT shipped so far).
Rusagrotrans said that Russia exported 3.15 MMT of grain in December, and that
will fall to around 1.5 MMT this month. Jul/Dec exports are 21.1 MMT (+29% versus
a year ago), including 16.5 MMT of wheat (78% of that total), 3.2 MMT of barley
(15%) and 1.1 MMT of corn (5%).
Wheat exports after the end of the month are expected to be negligible once
the new export duty kicks in.
The Russian Ministry for Economic Development said that inflation there will
peak at 15-17% in March/April. It stood at 11.4% at the end of December, up
from 9.1% in November.
The UK imported 231.4 TMT of corn in November, up 25% versus October and 4%
higher than in November 2013. France (160.9 TMT) was the largest supplier.
That takes Jul/Nov corn imports to 717.3 TMT, a 3% fall versus the same period
a year previously. Again France (331.1 TMT) was the principal supplier.
The volume of corn imported in November outstrips the size of wheat exports
(206.5 TMT), where Spain (94.8 TMT) was the top home.
FranceAgriMer raised their forecast for French soft wheat exports to non-EU
destinations from 8.5 MMT to 8.8 MMT.
The day ended with Jan 15 London wheat down GBP0.20/tonne to GBP129.00/tonne;
Mar 15 Paris wheat was up EUR1.50/tonne to EUR195.50/tonne; Mar 15 Paris corn
was EUR2.75/tonne lower at EUR159.50/tonne; Feb 15 Paris rapeseed was EUR1.25/tonne
firmer at EUR357.00/tonne.
UkrAgroConsult said that the EU-28 2015 rapeseed crop could fall 15% to a 3-year
low of around 20.5 MMT due to the neonicotinoid ban.
Russia bought 20,925 MT of grains for its intervention fund, in its first purchasing
round of 2015. That takes the total bought so far this season to only 308,860
MT out of an official government target of 5 MMT.
Inflation in Russia finished 2014 at 11.4%, said the local State Stats Office.
It was only 6.1% at the beginning of the year, prior to the seizure of Crimea
and subsequent Western sanctions against them.
Agritel said that Russia had exported 16.3 MMT of wheat in 2014/15 (to Dec
31), and that they don't expect full season exports to finish much higher than
18 MMT due to the new Feb 1 export duty. That's 2 MMT less than the USDA forecast
yesterday and 0.3 MMT below exports in 2013/14.
Ukraine said that it had exported more than 20 MMT of grains so far this season
(to Jan 12), including 8.34 MMT of wheat, 3,72 MMT of barley and 7.77 MMT of
APK Inform said that Ukraine exported 200 TMT of wheat to Egypt in December,
and has shipped the world's largest wheat buyer a record 1.66 MMT of wheat so
far in 2014/15, up from 1.43 MMT a year ago. They forecast Ukraine's full season
2014/15 wheat exports at 10.8 MMT, up from 9.3 MMT a year ago, although slightly
less than the 11.0 MMT estimated by the USDA yesterday.
Turkey bought 60 TMT of durum wheat and 50 TMT of barley in a tender. Israel
are in the market for 100 TMT of optional origin corn.
At the close, Jan 15 London wheat was down GBP2.00/tonne at GBP129.20/tonne,
Jan 15 Paris wheat was EUR2.50/tonne lower at EUR192.25/tonne, Mar 15 Paris
corn was EUR0.50/tonne easier at EUR162.25/tonne and Feb 15 Paris rapeseed was
EUR5.50/tonne weaker at EUR355.75/tonne.
Fresh news of any particular note is scare ahead of tonight's USDA announcements.
The Ukraine Ministry said that they had no plans to restrict grain exports,
and that tomorrow's scheduled meeting with traders there was simply part of
its normal routine to discuss things for the year ahead. We shall see if that's
true in due course.
They may seek "voluntary" agreements with the trading houses concerned,
who will be very keen to agree to whatever it takes to obtain the appropriate
VAT refunds on grains that have already been exported this season. The government
recently proposed to cancel this arrangement.
Inflation in Ukraine officially hit 24.8% at the end of December.
The Ukraine Ministry said that the country had exported 19.6 MMT of grains
so far this season, to Jan 6, including 8.16 MMT of wheat, 3.63 MMT of barley
and 7.66 MT of corn.
The USDA's December WASDE report had them down to export 10.3 MMT of wheat
in 2014/15, along with 2.7 MMT of barley and 16.5 MMT of corn. That means that
they've already shipped out 79%, 135% and 46% respectively of those volumes
The Ukraine Ministry said that they had shipped all 1 MMT of corn in a contract
signed with China in October, contrary to reports around a month ago that they
may default on up to 20% of that deal.
Russian banks are said to have ended 2014 lending 22% less money to farmers
to carryout fieldwork on winter crops than a year ago. That's a large number
when you consider that they are talking in roubles, given the demise of domestic
currency. If they were to have lent the same amount in real rouble terms then
farmer borrowing should be up 50% year-on-year
Kazakhstan said that it had no plans to introduce grain export restrictions/duties.
Their crop came in at 18.9 MMT this year, or 17 MMT in clean weight, leaving
around 7 MMT available for export, according to the local Ag Ministry.
India's state-owned wheat stocks are 25.1 MMT, which is three times the government's
minimum buffer requirement. Harvesting of new crop starts in March. Plantings
for that are 2% down versus this time a year ago at 29.93 million ha.
Egypt said that after last week's purchase of French wheat they now have enough
wheat bought to last them until the first week of May.
Bangladesh are tendering for 50 TMT of wheat. The USDA's FAS forecast that
the country will import 3 MMT of wheat this season, down slightly on the 3.3
MMT shipped in last season.
Late in the day, the USDA raised their outlook on EU wheat exports this season
by 1 MMT to 30 MMT. Russia's were lowered 2 MMT to 20 MMT. Ukraine's and Kazakhstan's
were increased by 700 TMT and 200 TMT respectively.
They also nudged higher the size of the 2014/15 EU-28 wheat crop from 155.4
MMT to 155.5 MMT.