Front month Jul 16 London wheat closed up GBP0.20/tonne at GBP106.50/tonne,
Sep 16 Paris wheat was EUR3.00/tonne higher at EUR163.25/tonne, June corn closed
EUR1.50/tonne higher at EUR170.50/tonne and Aug 16 Paris rapeseed closed EUR0.75/tonne
firmer at EUR374.25/tonne.
Defra predicted that UK wheat exports would jump 42% to a seven year high 2.75
MMT in 2015/16.
That figure might still be to low as the HGCA said it "may be conservative,
with the current pace of exports".
In a relatively late turn-up for the books Defra said that the UK exported
nearly 1 MMT of grain in Jan/Mar - up 55% versus last season and a 13-year high
for the period.
UK 2015/16 ending stocks may well the be not so burdensome as many had thought
then, especially if we factor in increased demand from the feed sector (and
Ensus?) highlighted earlier this week.
Does this signal the end of the hefty old crop/new crop spread then? It might
well do too, as the current level of over GBP10/tonne still looks unsustainable,
even if it is down on where things were.
The EU Commission forecast the soft wheat crop here at 145.1 MMT, up from 142.8
MMT a month ago "as weather conditions have remained mild for the last
weeks in Europe," said Agritel.
They also noted old crop soft wheat exports rising 2 MMT versus last month.
Weekly soft wheat export licences came in at 740,000 MT and are now 28.2 MMT
versus 29.3 MT a yeat ago.
EU rapeseed production in 2016 was forecast at 22 MMT versus 22.3 MMT a year
The trade is adjusting anticipated EU 2015/16 carryout lower than was forecast
a few months ago. News that Ensus are to re-open for a trial period in Jul is
adding a bit of support to old crop, which may spill over into new crop too.
Total demand for cereals in UK animal feed production in 2015/16 has been revised
up by 1.3% compared with earlier estimates according to the latest Defra UK
Supply and Demand estimates released yesterday, noted the HGCA.
A pick up in exports since the close of the first quarter will also help a
little those that are still carrying old crop grain.
It's a similar situation on the continent, where Strategie Grains last week
increased potential EU-28 2015/17 soft wheat exports, and reduced ending stocks
Prospects for 2016/17 production still look good though. The Russian Ag Min
today increased his forecast for this year's total Russian grain crop from 104
MMT To 106 MMT.
Black Sea exports continue at a brisk, if not frenetic, pace. Ukraine said
that they have now exported 34.616 MMT of grain so far this season, including
14.6 MMT of wheat, 4.25 MMT of barley and 15.48 MMT of corn.
Thy will finish the season with record grain exports of 39.87 MMT, including
15.16 MMT of wheat, 4.23 MMT of barley and 19.5 MMT of corn, they added.
Ealry spring grain planting in Ukraine is over, and corn planting is now 96%
done, said the Ag Ministry. Sunflower (97%) and soybeans (85%) plantings are
winding down, they added.
Russian spring plantings are 78% down on 24.9 million ha 22.4 m ha last year
EU 2016 yield and production forecasts edge higher, weather will be the key
final yield determining factor from hereon in, Conditions look largely favourable
at the moment.
Jordan finally bought 100,000 MT of optional origin hard wheat in it's on-off
retender. The price paid was reported at $203/tonne C&F for October shipment.
Morocco is in the market for 133,000 MT of domestic material in a tender.
Australia's ABARES said that the strongest El Nino weather event in 19 years
is now over. Concerns now are that it will be followed by a La Nina event, which
typically brings wet weather to Asia and parts of South America too (especially
Argentina) along with historic flooding to QLD/NSW. Some also link La Nina to
a dry summer in parts of the US.
New front month Jul 16 London wheat closed down GBP0.40/tonne at GBP107.45/tonne,
Sep 16 Paris wheat was EUR0.50/tonne lower at EUR163.00/tonne, June corn closed
EUR0.75/tonne higher at EUR167.00/tonne and Aug 16 Paris rapeseed closed EUR0.50/tonne
lower at EUR369.25/tonne.
The latest MARS Crop monitoring in Europe Bulletin, published today, reports
that the current prospects for EU-28 yields are generally above the five-year
average, despite a cold spell at the end of April.
EU soft wheat average yields were pegged at 6.11 MT/ha, unchanged from last
month, but up almost 5% on the 5-year average.
Total EU-28 barley yields were forecast 1% higher than a month ago and up 5.7%
on the 5-year average at 4.99 MT/ha.
Rapeseed yields were pegged 1.8% lower than previously at 3.29 MT/ha, but still
a 2.6% increase compared to the 5-year average.
"The first two weeks of April were exceptionally warm in south-eastern,
eastern and parts of central Europe. Maximum daily temperatures reached 25°C
to 30°C, and even exceeded 30°C in several regions of the South-East,"
"A cold spell at the end of April affected many regions of central Europe,
parts of western Europe and the northwestern Balkans. Sparse rainfall was recorded
in northeastern Germany, north-western Poland, southern France, southern Greece
and Sicily," they added.
In the UK Specifically: "Rainfall and temperature conditions strongly
fluctuated during the period of review. Sowing was delayed due to wet conditions
and a cold period stalled development. May, so far, generally presented favourable
conditions, allowing spring sowings to be completed and young stands to recover.
Yield outlooks remain close to average.
"Winter crops are faring well. Development is slightly advanced in most
of the UK and close to average in Ireland. Pest and disease pressure remains
high," they noted.
Brussels confirmed 928 TMT worth of EU soft wheat export licences this past
week, taking the total for the season so far to 27.5 MMT. Which is now not too
far short of the 29.0 MMT (record) volume granted at this time last year.
Barley export licences were 173.000 MT for the week, and now total 9.1 MMT
for 2015/16 to date, a rise of 8.3% on a year ago.
Corn imports matched barley exports for the week at 173,000 MT. Season to date
imports are 12.2 MMT against 8.2 MMT a year previously.
The potential size of the 2016 EU soft wheat crop is creeping higher. French
Analysts Strategie Grains now have that at 146.7 MMT, up from previous estimates
of 144.8 MMT. "Winter cereals exhibited excellent yield potential"
in many of the key EU winter wheat cropping areas, they said.
The rise will be tempered by lower than expected carry-in stocks, with 2015/16
exports now seen at 30.4 MMT, some 0.9 MMT higher than previously.
They have the EU-28 2016 corn crop at 62.7 MMT, which is a 9% rebound from
last year's drought-damaged harvest. Barley production will rise 1% to 62.5
MMT, they predict.
FranceAgriMer estimated the French winter wheat crop at 31% headed as of Monday,
up from 9% as week previously, but still 18 points below this time last year
when crops were particularly forward. Winter barley is 95% headed against 56%
and 99% respectively.
French corn planting was cited at 91% complete versus 78% a week ago and 96%
this time last year.
In crop conditions French wheat was cut 1 point good to very god to 86% (91%
this time last year). Winter barley ratings dropped a point in a week to 84%
good/very good (90% a year ago). Spring barley was 93% good to very good versus
95% in 2015.
It'a a holiday shortened week for many, and it sure feels like it. The new
month ha s finally brought some better weather along with it, for the UK anyhow,
and hopes are fairly high of some decent crops again this year - even if growers
don't fancy the prices on offer much.
The May16/Nov16 London wheat old crop new crop spread has narrowed in the last
few days. One key factor to watch for now is if this is the start of a trend.
It might be, given that "imported maize has become even more costly against
UK ex-farm feed wheat in the last month, with the premium lifting to almost
£34/t last week, say the HGCA.
That might cut corn usual in feed in the final Q4 of 2015/16, to the benefit
Suddenly robust UK wheat exports might also provide a late boost in demand
for wheat domestically, finally supporting this that carried old crop this far-
not that many would call it a winning marketing strategy.
Israel were reported buying 120,000 MT of corn and 40,000 MT of feed wheat,
of optional origin in a tender today. Tunisia are in the market for 100,000
MT of optional origin feed barley.
Indian millers are said to have bought at least 140,000 MT of Australian wheat
in the past two weeks to mix with its own lower grade stocks.
May 16 Paris wheat was EUR0.75/tonne lower at EUR150.25/tonne, June corn rose
EUR1.00/tonne lower to EUR161.75/tonne and new front month Aug 16 Paris rapeseed
closed EUR3.50/tonne lower at EUR358.25/tonne.
In an assortment of weekend activity, Saudi Arabia were said to have bought
620 MT of optional origin hard wheat at prices ranging from $210-220 C&F
for Jul/Aug shipment in various cargo sizes.
Thailand were said to have booked 50,000 MT of option origin feed wheat and
Algeria bought 140,000 MT of corn and 40,000 MT% of feed wheat both of optional
origin. Israel are expected to tender for 140,000 MT of corn and 30,000 MT of
optional origin feed wheat for Jun and September shortly.
The situation in Europe continues to look pretty good, with the EU Commission
calling for a soft wheat crop of 148.2 MMT in 2016 versus 151.3 MMT a year ago.
Ending stocks in 2016/17 are still intimated 600,000 MT higher though at 189.1
Corn production in 2016/17 will jump more than 11% to 64.7 MMT meanwhile, they
For the last week of April Ukraine's grain exports via seaports were up around
1000 MT To 515.3MMT, say APK Inform. Wheat accounted for 237.2 TMT of that total
and, another 171.4 TMT and barley 106.7 TMT, they added.
London wheat is closed on Monday for the May Day Celebrations, and some other
markets, like Russia, will also be shut too.
France and Chicago will be open as normal.
Russia said Friday night that spring grain plantings there were well advanced
comapred to normal at 21.3% done on 6.6 million ha. That includes 954k ha of
spring wheat (versus 561k ha) a year ago; 3.1 milion ha (2.5m ha) of spring
barley; and 1.3 million ha of corn (986k ha).
FranceAgriMer today cut French winter wheat good to very good conditions by
4 points from last week to 88% (91% last year). They were down 3 points on winter
barley too, at 87% versus 90% this time last year. Spring barley good to very
good was unchanged at 04% (down from 95% this time a year ago). There's nothing
to get too worried about here just yet, these numbers are still historically
Traditionally early parts of the French winter wheat crop have begun heading,
with the crop nationally 1% headed at this early stage - the same as a year
Winter barley is 4% headed nationwide versus 11 % a year ago. Early corn planting
is 27% complete against 11% a week ago and 68% a year ago at this time.
"Combined UK wheat and barley exports hit the highest monthly level since
November 2011 in February, aided partially by currency movements," noted
"Since the end of December and moving into 2016, sterling has weakened
considerably against a number of currencies, including the euro and the US dollar.
This has aided UK cereals price competitiveness and helped boost exports over
the past few months. Furthermore, in February, combined wheat and barley exports
totalled 512.5Kt, the highest combined level since November 2011," they
Brussels issued export certificates for 599 000 MT of wheat during last week.
Barely licences were a pleasing 174 000 MT.
Russia's Ag Min said that they'd exported 22 MMT of wheat so far this season
(out of a 62 MMT harvest), and increased it's forecast for full season exports
estimate to a record 24-25 MMT.
Saudi Arabia has announced a tended or 550,000 MT of 12.5% hard wheat for Jul/Aug
delivery with the results expected over the weekend.
Activity is light ahead of Monday's Bank Holiday, with some trader's already
away from their desks.
May 16 rapeseed goes off the board on Friday, so could display some choppy
trade ahead of that. Despite expiry being only a few days away, open interest
in May 16 is still the largest of all the Paris rapeseed contracts.
Early spring grin plantings in Ukraine are just about done at 99% complete,
according to the AG Ministry there. Spring barley sowing is complete on 98%
of the government forecast at 1.78 million ha.
Oilseeds and corn are excluded from early spring grain figures. In Ukraine
corn plantings are estimated 49% complete so far 92.24 million ha), with sunseed
55% planted (2.859 million ha) and soybeans 25% (502 million ha) sown.
In March Ukraine exported 2.427 MMT of corn, which is 32% greater than the
volume of exports in March 2015 (1.836 MMT), according to UkrAgroConsult.
Ukraine exported a record 2.7 MMT of grains in April, And said that they'd
exported 33.3 MMT of grains so far this season, including 15 MMT of corn, 15
MMT of wheat and 4.1 MMT of barley. The barley campaign is just about over for
Concerns still linger over Ukraine's production prospects for this year though.
"Dry conditions during the sowing period and frost kill in January, drastically
impacted winter crops in both Ukraine (and Poland). Despite favourable conditions
since the beginning of March it looks like winter crops have had very little
regrowth," the HGCA reported MARS as saying yesterday.
That doesn't seem to be the case in Russia though, where ProZerno estimate
2016 grain production 0.6% higher than last year at 105.46 MMT. Wheat could
account for almost 61 MMT of that, they say.
Morocco announced that it will maintain its import taxes on wheat of up to
30% until the end of the year. The move comes despite a poor harvest leading
to an anticipate jump in import needs in 2016/17.