Fresh news was relatively light following yesterday's USDA releases. These
early acreage numbers are of course far from yet being written in tablets of
stone, and much can change between now and the finish of the planting season.
Indeed, a flick back through the record books shows that the January "final"
acreage estimate has differed from the Mar 31 forecast by as much as almost
2 million acres on the high side to more than 3 million on the low side in the
case of corn in the previous 10 seasons.
The final area on soybeans has also proved to be 2-3 million acres wrong three
times in the last 10 years. As you might expect the USDA has the best track
record on wheat acreage, as most of that crop has already been in the ground
for some considerable time when the Mar 31 estimates are released, even so the
final planted area has been 2-3 million over-estimated in 2 of the previous
So ultimately, we are not really much wiser today than we were yesterday morning.
The US wheat market appears torn between the fact that fund money is short,
and appears more inclined to buy on the dips rather than look to actively extend
that position too much. There are also well reported question marks over the
state of US winter wheat on the Plains. On the flip side we have the perennially
strong US dollar continuing to harm US wheat export prospects.
Closer to home, EU wheat exports remain very robust, and look currently set
to beat even last season's record pace - we are currently ahead of it by 7.5%
- with another set of export licence figures due tomorrow. Export licenses have
been granted for more than 3 MMT of soft wheat in the past 3 weeks.
EU barley exports are also going well, with ODA saying that France could leapfrog
Australia into top spot in the world export table this season. They'd exported
more than 3 MMT of the grain in the first half of 2014/15, and are set to ship
more than 2 MMT to China alone this season, which is more than a third of all
their total import requirements which are placed at a record 6 MMT in 2014/15
as they buy large volumes of coarse grains to compensate for their lack of corn
purchases from the US over GMO issues.
China will occupy second top slot in the world barley import league in 2014/15,
only 0.5 MMT behind Saudi Arabia, according to the latest USDA estimates.
Russia's intervention purchases are picking up due to the excessive export
duty on wheat. This means that local prices are declining, enabling the government
to pick up more wheat for domestic stocks than they had been doing previously.
They bought just under 26,500 MT of wheat for intervention today, taking the
total purchased so far this season to just under 517 TMT.
The Russian National Association of Exports though say that current low prices
of grain, plus the high cost of seed and other inputs could lead to "mass
bankruptcies" among cash-strapped local growers and a sharp decline in
cereal production this year.
Kazakhstan forecast their 2015/16 grain crop at 17.2 MMT in clean weight, unchanged
from last year.
UK feed wheat prices continue to fluctuate more in line with US and French
corn levels than anything else, say the HGCA. "Further volatility in US
corn futures is likely to impact UK wheat futures in a similar way before greater
clarity of the size of the US corn crop is obtained come harvest 2015,"
Currency changes will also of course be a factor, and a weak sterling in the
run-up to the General Election seems like a possibility, and one that might
support London wheat a little, as it seemed to today.
At the finish, May 15 London wheat was down GBP2.25/tonne at GBP120.50/tonne;
May 15 Paris wheat was EUR3.75/tonne lower at EUR187.50/tonne; Jun 15 Paris
corn was unchanged at EUR163.75/tonne; May 15 Paris rapeseed was up EUR3.25/tonne
Oil World said that global oilseeds production will rise 5.5% this season to
a record 523.3 MMT, led by an 11% increase in soybean output to a new all time
high 312.8 MMT. Rapeseed production will fall slightly, down 1.7% to 68.4 MMT,
Ukraine said that they'd exported 26.78 MMT of grains so far this season, including
9.7 MMT of wheat, just over 4 MMT of barley and 12.74 MMT of corn.
Early spring grain plantings in Ukraine are said to be 43% complete on more
than 1 million ha, with spring barley accounting for the vast majority of that
(780k ha) - winter wheat plantings are only 80k ha.
Winter grains in Ukraine have been fertilised on 83% of the planted area, along
with 80% of the winter OSR area, say the Ag Ministry.
Russia's wheat exports have dropped off markedly since the new export duty
came into force on Feb 1. Exports Feb 1 to Mar 25 were only 882 TMT in the case
of wheat, down 240% versus 1.8 MMT in the same period a year ago.
Russia now appears to be concentrating on barley exports, as these are up massively
at 932 TMT Feb 1 to Mar 25 as opposed to only 91 TMT a year ago.
Russia's season to date export totals are 19.35 MMT in the case of wheat (versus
15 MMT a year ago), with barley coming in at 4.27 MMT (2.08 MMT) and corn at
1.91 MMT (3.02 MMT).
The president of the Russian Grain Union has apparently said that it is “necessary”
to cancel the wheat export duty before it expires on June 30, according to a
story on Bloomberg.
Jordan are tendering for 100 TMT each of hard milling wheat and feed barley
for Oct/Nov shipment.
At the finish, May 15 London wheat was GBP2.10/tonne easier at GBP121.55/tonne,
May 15 Paris wheat was up EUR0.25/tonne at EUR188.75/tonne, Jun 15 Paris corn
rose EUR0.50/tonne to EUR162.50/tonne and May 15 Paris rapeseed fell EUR3.75/tonne
For the week, that puts London wheat down GBP1.85/tonne (-1.5%), with Paris
wheat falling EUR8.00/tonne (-4%), corn dropping EUR1.25/tonne (-0.8%) and rapeseed
losing EUR7.50/tonne (-2%).
It's interesting to see Paris wheat as the biggest loser there, considering
the strong export demand for that grade of wheat.
Brussels confirmed last night that they'd issued a further 721 TMT of soft
wheat export licences, taking the season to date total to 24.4 MMT, up 7.5%
on this time last year.
Algeria were said to have bought 450 TMT of optional origin wheat in a tender,
which is widely believed to most likely be French material.
The HGCA meanwhile raised their forecast for the UK's 2014/15 exportable wheat
surplus by more than 400 TMT to 3.87 MMT, a more than threefold increase on
a year ago. Carryover into next season looks certain to be very high, given
that the UK had only exported a little over 1 MMT of wheat by the end of January
(the most recent figures available).
It's the GBP8.75/tonne premium on offer between old crop May 15 and new crop
Nov 15 that's providing the incentive to carry UK wheat, even if that is down
a little on a week ago when the differential was GBP9.60/tonne. You'd probably
have to expect that trend to now continue to narrow.
Coceral forecast the 2015 UK wheat crop to fall 12.8% to 14.4 MMT. They've
got plantings at 1.892 million ha, which is probably about right, and towards
the middle of the HGCA's suggested 1.8 million and Origin's 1.95 million.
UK yields will fall to 7.61 MT/ha this year, down 11% from last year, they
They see the UK barley crop down 8.6% to 6.4 MMT and the domestic OSR crop
to fall 11% to 2.23 MMT.
Production of wheat, barley, corn and OSR is seen lower in many other of the
major EU countries too, with the exception of France (soft wheat +1.6% and barley
+4.5%), Spain (soft wheat +3.8%) and Denmark (wheat unchanged from a year ago).
Germany's soft wheat crop will fall 8.9%, with barley production down 9.7%
and OSR output dipping 15.3% this year, they say. Poland will see it's soft
wheat crop fall 8.6%, whilst barley production will be down 3.1% and that of
OSR declining by 10.1%.
Meanwhile the Czech Republic will see double digit percentage losses on all
three of those crops, whilst Romania's soft wheat, corn and OSR crops will all
fall between 10-15%, and Hungary's soft wheat and corn output will post declines
French crop conditions for winter wheat were estimated at 90% good to very
good by FranceAgriMer, down a point on a week ago, but up 14 points compared
to this time last year. Winter barley was also rated 90% good to very good,
unchanged on a week ago and 17 points up on last year.
Whilst French crop conditions are therefore significantly ahead of a year ago,
crop maturity is not. FranceAgriMer say that only 48% of winter wheat is currently
displaying an ear of at least 1cm in length, which is 20 points below this time
last year. Winter barley at the same stage is 46% versus 67% a year ago.
The HGCA said that spring barley planting in the UK is about 40% done, and
that spring oats and wheat are about 50% sown. Spring OSR planting is only just
getting going at 3% complete.
Winter crop conditions in the UK are generally pretty good, and crop growth
is "fairly normal", they added.
At the finish, May 15 London wheat was up GBP1.05/tonne at GBP123.65/tonne;
May 15 Paris wheat was EUR1.25/tonne lower at EUR191.25/tonne; Jun 15 Paris
corn was EUR0.75/tonne easier at EUR162.00/tonne; May 15 Paris rapeseed was
down EUR4.00/tonne at EUR366.00/tonne.
London wheat got a helping hand following the news that UK inflation had fallen
to zero, keeping thoughts of interest rate rises on the back burner, and putting
the pound under pressure. Sterling is likely to be in for a bit of a bumpy ride
in the run up to the general election on May 7.
Spring grain plantings in Russia are said to be complete on 731k ha, or 1.4%
of plan. Progress in Ukraine is said to be already 30% done.
Russia’s Ag Ministry estimated winter grain losses at 16.8%, down from
The head of the Russian agrometeorological centre told Bloomberg that 9% of
winter grains were in a bad condition versus 3% a year ago.
The debate over Russian farmers' ability to fund the spring planting programme
continues. Bloomberg reported that farmers face "colossal damage"
without timely funding. The government say that the effective loan rate for
Russian spring sowing is only 3-7%. Private reports suggest that it is in fact
many times this.
The Russian export duty on wheat means that intervention purchases are picking
up. The government bought 30,510 tons of intervention grain today, taking the
total bought since purchases began on Sep 30 to 473,290 MT. That's still well
below the government target though.
Iran bought 80,000 MT of German and Black Sea wheat for April shipment in a
The Canadian Wheat Board estimated the global wheat crop at 703.4 MMT this
year, down nearly 3% from 724.8 MMT in 2014.
They see no sign of a let up in European wheat exports in 2015/16, predicting
these to rise to a record 32.35 MMT versus the estimated 31.5 MMT this season.
That would place Europe at the top of the global wheat export table for another
Ukraine's 2015/15 wheat exports will fall 12% to 9.7 MMT next season, and Russia's
will drop a similar percentage to 17.4 MMT, they predict.
The Indian Ag Ministry said that this year's expected record, or near record,
wheat crop may in fact come in significantly lower than hoped for due to late
rain and hail damage immediately prior to harvesting. An area of 12.1 million
ha (40%) of the planted 30.6 million ha has been affected, with rains up to
3 times more than normal having fallen between Mar 1-18, they said.
At the finish, May 15 London wheat was GBP1.50/tonne easier at GBP122.60/tonne,
May 15 Paris wheat was down EUR3.00/tonne at EUR192.50/tonne, Jun 15 Paris corn
fell EUR0.50/tonne to EUR162.75/tonne and May 15 Paris rapeseed dipped EUR1.50/tonne
Market attention is now turning to new crop. Yesterday's MARS yield estimates
suggest lower 2015 production in most European countries this year.
If we match their yield figures with the HGCA's area estimate then the UK is
in for a 2015 wheat crop of around 14.5 MMT this year. That would be a near
12.7% fall on production last year, if correct, although many consider that
the HGCA are possibly a bit low with their wheat area forecast this year.
Using Origin Enterprise's area figure of 1.95 million ha, then the UK will
produce a wheat crop of 15.75 MMT, a more modest 5% fall compared with 2014.
I'd have to say that this is more like the sort of ballpark that I'd be in at
the moment, although there's still a long way to go to the finishing post just
The HGCA's winter barley area estimated, teamed up with MARS's yield figure,
would give us a UK winter barley crop of 2.8 MMT versus around 3 MMT last year.
On OSR a combination of the two estimates would suggest a winter OSR crop of
2.5 MMT. That seems like it could be significantly too high to me. Both the
HGCA's area forecast and the MARS yield estimate are both too high to my mind.
MARS also forecast significant reductions in yields of wheat and barley in
Ukraine this year, with the former dropping 10.6% and the latter by 19.1% compared
with a year ago.
UkrAgroConsult meanwhile today predicted the Ukraine corn area to decline 10%
to 4.4 million ha, with output falling 11.2% to 23.0 MMT this year. They also
see wheat production in the war-torn country down by 8.4% to 20.6 MMT.
Early spring planting in Russia has been completed on 663k ha, or 1.3% of plan,
according to the Ag Ministry there. Reports suggest that winter crop conditions
in the important Volgograd region are rated 40% in poor condition, with only
20% of the crop described as "good".
Russia's two largest agricultural lending banks say that they've increased
lending to fund spring plantings by just 1.2% this year. This is a very low
rate of increase given the plunge in value of the rouble and the rising rate
The cost of seed, fertiliser and herbicides/pesticides in Russia are said to
be up by 40-60% compared with 12 months ago.
Few "ordinary" farmers can come up with the collateral to get a loan
from the bank, despite government assurances that credit is available at special
discounted rates to fund spring plantings, and those that can get a loan are
being asked to pay around 22-27% interest, which is around double the rate of
a year ago.
This would suggest that many winter crops that are in trouble may simply be
left to their own devices, rather than being ripped up and re-planted. It might
also suggest lower spring acreage than the government currently predict, and
certainly lower yields as a result of reduced fertiliser/agrochemical applications.
Algeria are tendering for 50 TMT of optional origin new crop wheat for July
shipment. Oman are in the market for 60 TMT of new crop Russian/German wheat
for July/August delivery.
The day ended with new front month May 15 London wheat unchanged at GBP124.10/tonne,
May 15 Paris wheat fell EUR1.25/tonne to EUR195.50/tonne, Jun 15 Paris corn
dipped EUR0.50/tonne to EUR163.25/tonne and May 15 Paris rapeseed was up EUR0.25/tonne
The EU Commission's MARS unit released their first estimates for 2015 yields
Overall they put EU-28 soft wheat yields down 4,8% at 5.79 MT/ha, with barley
yields falling 5.5% to 4.6 MT/ha, corn yields down 4.3% to 7.19 MT/ha and those
of OSR slumping 9.4% to 3.24 MT/ha.
Soil water availability is becoming a concern in eastern Germany, the Czech
Republic and Poland, they said.
Specifically they peg German soft wheat yields down 11.7%, with barley yields
falling 8.3% and OSR yields dipping 14.1% this year.
In the UK, we will see wheat yields decline 6.3%, barley yields will drop 7.1%,
although those of OSR will only fall 0.9%, they reckon.
Large yield falls will also come from the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and
Romania, they add.
"Areas along the northern and eastern borders of Ukraine, as well as southern
Russia and some areas close to the Black Sea, appear to have been considerably
affected by frost kill, due to severe frost events coinciding with no or shallow
snow cover until mid-January, they note
"Moreover, winter crop establishment was weaker than usual in these regions,
as a consequence of insufficient rain and dry soil conditions at the start of
the crop season last autumn," they add.
US wheat prices rose today, with a hard frost in the forecast to reach far
south into Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma and Colorado this week.
Untimely and unwanted heavy rains and hail are also being reported to have
damaged the Indian wheat crop just as harvesting was about to begin. Production
there could fall 30-50% this year, according to SkyMet. That sounds like a huge
amount as India's crop was expected to be close on 100 MMT this year, so this
would be a near 30-50 MMT loss if correct, but the news may have lent some support
to today's trade nevertheless.
Bangladesh re-issued a tender to buy 100 TMT of wheat.
Russia said that they had exported only 829 TMT of wheat between Feb 1 - Mar
18 (ie since the new export duty came into force), which is 34% less than a
The day ended with Mar 15 London wheat down GBP0.10/tonne at GBP119.75/tonne,
May 15 Paris wheat fell EUR0.75/tonne to EUR192.25/tonne, Jun 15 Paris corn
dipped EUR1.00/tonne to EUR163.75/tonne and May 15 Paris rapeseed was up EUR1.00/tonne
Yet again fresh news of any great note was scarce.
Although soon to expire and tradeless Mar 15 London wheat officially closed
slightly lower, the more active May 15 finished up GBP0.50/tonne at GBP121.75/tonne,
and new crop Nov 15 was GBP0.80/tonne higher at GBP130.45/tonne.
A near GBP9.00/tonne premium to carry old crop six months into new crop explains
why many UK farmers remain relatively relaxed about the substantial volume of
last year's harvest that they are still sitting on.
The HGCA said that nearby UK wheat prices were following the French corn market
much more closely at the moment than they are mimicking French wheat.
"For new crop, on the other hand, movements have been much more in line
with other wheat markets," they noted.
There was some support for London wheat today from a weaker sterling/euro,
following the release of the Bank of England's MPC minutes of their March meeting
showing a unanimous vote to keep interest rates on hold at 0.5%.
The Committee said that whilst they do expect interest rates to rise, the time
scale mentioned was only "over the next three years" - which hardly
sounds like an increase is just around the corner.
So the pound traded a bit lower versus the euro, which in theory will help
UK wheat become a bit more competitive on the export front. That's something
that it certainly needs to be.
Reuters reported that German wheat exports could hit as much as 1.0 MMT in
March. To put that into perspective Germany only exported 3.9 MMT of wheat in
the whole of last season, including just 360,000 MT in March 2014.
The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that growers there have 100% of their seed requirements
for the spring sowing campaign already bought. They've also got 88% of their
fertiliser needs contracted along with 73% of their fuel.
The first thing that strikes me about that is "how do you know that?"
The second thing being "you're making this up aren't you?" Followed
by the fact that they need 100% of their fuel, not 73% of it, to carryout the
The Ministry said that they expect to formulate (make up) some early crop production
forecasts by the end of the month.
The Russian's are predictably not so shy. Their Ag Minister has already estimated
this year's grain crop at 100 MMT (versus 105.3 MMT last year), but today said
that because of the early start to the spring sowing campaign that this would
probably be increased higher.
Crops emerging from winter dormancy in the south of the country are looking
in better shape than expected, with winter losses therefore likely to be less
than feared, he said.
At the finish, Mar 15 London wheat was up GBP0.90/tonne at GBP119.85/tonne;
May 15 Paris wheat was EUR0.25/tonne higher at EUR193.00/tonne; Jun 15 Paris
corn was EUR0.25/tonne lower at EUR164.75/tonne; May 15 Paris rapeseed was EUR1.75/tonne
easier at EUR369.25/tonne.
Fresh news was relatively scarce. Strong exports, helped by
the weak euro, continue to support the continental market.
The HGCA said that the Scottish winter wheat area was up 2.3%
(as of Dec 1) at almost 105k ha. Add that to their previous forecast of 1.69
million ha for England and Wales and we get a UK area of around 1.8 million
ha (excluding Northern Ireland where very little is grown).
That's around 100k ha down on last year, "meaning that
the gap could potentially be filled by spring plantings,"they say.
It's higher than Copa Cogeca's recent 1.687 million ha estimate,
but lower than Origin's 1.95 million ha forecast.
The HGCA went on to estimate the Scottish winter barley area
at just over 55k ha, with the winter OSR area north of the border coming in
at almost 36.5k ha.
Those numbers take the total UK winter barley area to around
426k ha versus 421k ha a year ago. Winter OSR plantings are at almost 670k ha
versus a total OSR area of 719k ha this time last year.
In other news, Rusagrotrans forecast Russia's March grain exports
at around 1.1 MMT, falling to 1 MMT in April, 725 TMT in May and 675 TMT in
That equals 3.5 MMT over the entire period, and would take the
nation's full season grain exports to around 28 MMT versus 25.3 MMT last season.
Wheat will account for 20.4 MMT of this season's exports (73%),
along with 5 MMT of barley (18%) and 2.3 MMT of corn (8%), they say.
In 2013/14 Russia's wheat exports were 18.3 MMT, or 72% of total
grain shipments, with barley accounting for 2.7 MMT (11%) and corn 4 MMT (16%),
Russian spring grain plantings are still at their fledgling
stage at only 0.8% complete on an area of 295k ha, say the Ag Ministry. Ukraine
spring grain plantings are 8% complete on 184k ha.
Ukraine said that their Mar 1 grain stocks were 19.3 MMT, up
22% on a year ago. Wheat accounts for 6.2 MMT of that total, along with 1.6
MMT of barley and 10.7 MMT of corn, say their Ag Ministry.
Independent agronomist Mike Lee and his team will begin a 4,000
km 10-day crop tour of southern Russia and Ukraine starting in Kursk, focusing
on crop condition of the over wintered crops, starting next week.
At the finish, Mar 15 London wheat was GBP1.1/tonne firmer at GBP118.95/tonne,
May 15 Paris wheat was up EUR2.50/tonne at EUR192.75/tonne, Jun 15 Paris corn
rose EUR0.75/tonne to EUR165.00/tonne and May 15 Paris rapeseed climbed EUR2.00/tonne
higher to EUR371.00/tonne.
Copa Cogeca estimated the EU-28 soft wheat crop in 2015 at 138.42 MMT, a fall
of 6.5% versus a year ago. They see production in France virtually unchanged
on last year at 37.4 MMT, but output will fall in many other countries with
the exception of the Czech Republic (up 3.1% to 5.6 MMT) and Romania (up 2.3%
to 7.57 MMT).
Here in the UK, the 2015 wheat crop will fall 15.9% to less than 14 MMT, they
predict. Germany will see it's output decline 9.2% to 25.16 MMT and Poland will
witness a drop of 14.3% to 9.24 MMT. Spain's production will decline 1.2% to
5.63 MMT, but the biggest fall of all will come from Bulgaria, whose crop will
tumble 38.5% to just 3.15 MMT, they estimate.
Reduced plantings and lower anticipated yields are a recurring theme among
those countries expected to see a decline in output this year.
Joining in with the debate over how far, if at all, UK wheat plantings have
fallen this year, Copa Cogeca estimate the planted area here at only 1.687 million
hectares. That's broadly in line with the HGCA's England and Wales reckonings,
but well below the figure of close on 2 million given by Origin Enterprises
last week, and represents a year-on-year decline of 12.5%.
UK yields will average 8.28 MT/ha this year, down nearly 4% from a year ago,
Copa Cogeca forecast.
For barley, they see the EU-28 crop down a hefty 18% to only 46.65 MMT, according
to their official press release. This data appears incomplete however, as they
give no figures for spring barley production in either France or the UK. The
UK winter barley crop is forecast at just under 2.5 MMT versus a little over
3 MMT last year.
For corn, Copa Cogeca estimate the EU-28 crop down 4.6% at 68.92 MMT.
The soft wheat and corn estimates are in the ballpark of those released by
Strategie Grains last week (140.4 MMT and 68.2 MMT respectively). The barley
number however is massively different compared to the French analysts figure
of 58.1 MMT, and maybe should be taken with a pinch of salt.
Copa Cogeca meanwhile estimate the EU-28 OSR crop to fall 6.9% to 21.95 MMT,
a three year low, with a planted area down by 2.2% and yields dropping 4.8%.
They see the French crop down slightly at 5.48 MMT, but see UK production falling
9.2% to 2.27 MMT and the German crop falling a hefty 15.3% to 6.22 MMT - even
if they do still retain top spot in the EU production table.
The sharp decline in EU rapeseed production expected this year is mainly as
result of the neonicotinoid seed treatment ban, they said.
The chairman of the oilseeds working party Arnaud Rousseau said that "the
situation is very serious, with declines of up to 1 million tonnes in rapeseed
production estimated in Germany...What makes it worse is that there are no alternative
tools for crop protection for the spring varieties and crops are being destroyed
by flea beetle attacks."
At the finish, Mar 15 London wheat was GBP1.45/tonne firmer at GBP117.90/tonne,
May 15 Paris wheat was up EUR2.00/tonne at EUR188.00/tonne, Jun 15 Paris corn
rose EUR3.25/tonne to EUR165.25/tonne and May 15 Paris rapeseed climbed EUR5.25/tonne
higher to EUR371.00/tonne.
The pound crashed below 1.50 versus the US dollar, to hit its lowest levels
since July 2013. The euro meanwhile took an absolute pasting, slumping to a
new more than 7-year low against the pound, and levels not seen versus the dollar
in 12 years. Some are now suggesting that euro parity with the US currency could
be tested soon.
All that bodes well for EU wheat exports to continue apace, these are of course
already running at levels better even than last season, which went on to be
Before the market gets too cocky though, it needs to be remembered that crop
prospects in Europe this year are generally looking pretty good. Although wheat
production is seen down, according to the latest estimate from the EU Commission,
ending stocks next season are forecast at a 10-year high 19.5 MMT - up 40% on
The Commission also forecast another bumper EU barley crop in 2015/16, along
with rising ending stocks for that too.
"France, the top EU wheat producing country, has experienced much cooler
conditions 2-4 F below average for the past several weeks. Temperatures a year
ago were 4-5 F warmer. As wheat is a 'cool season' crop, wheat potential this
season is deemed better," said Martell Crop Projections. This is backed
up by the latest crop condition ratings from FranceAgriMer showing wheat rated
91% good to very good,far higher than 74% this time a year ago. Winter barley
ratings were pegged at 90% good to very good, up from 72% a year ago.
"Indeed, all of Europe has experienced cooler temperatures this season,
confirmed by a comparison of temperatures in the 45 days up to March 10. Germany,
Europe’s second leading wheat nation, one year ago was in the throes of
a serious drought. Precipitation has been relatively heavier this winter, which
is more favourable for wheat, although one or two stubborn dry pockets have
continued in eastern Germany," they added.
In other news, Rusagrotrans said that Russia would export around 1 MMT of grains
this month, down from 1.23 MMT in February.
Barley exports would unusually outstrip those of wheat at 400 TMT, which is
50 TMT more than the latter grain, they said.
The Russian Ministry are a bit more bullish on grain exports, predicting that
the country will still ship out 5 MMT more between now and the end of the current
marketing year at the end of June. That would take this season's exports to
around 30 MMT.
The Ministry also said that there were currently no plans to alter the export
duty situation on wheat, nor to bring corn or barley into the equation.