The day ended with Nov 16 London up GBP0.15/tonne at GBP126.70/tonne, Dec 16
Paris wheat was down EUR0.75/tonne at EUR161.25/tonne, Nov 16 corn was up EUR0.75/tonne
at EUR162.75/tonne and Nov 16 rapeseed fell EUR4.00/tonne to EUR375.75/tonne.
For the week nearby London wheat was GBP3.10/tonne firmer, Paris wheat was
up EUR2.25/tonne, corn gained EUR2.25/tonne and rapeseed was up EUR3.25/tonne.
Egypt's GASC were confirmed to have bought 240,000 MT of Russian wheat in their
tender yesterday, paying around $179/tonne FOB, or circa $187/tonne C&F.
Whether the purchase marks a permanent change of policy on the issue of ergot
remains to be seen, hence trader reluctance to participate in this latest tender.
FranceAgriMer pegged French corn crop conditions unchanged from a week ago
at 54% good to very good. Harvesting of that crop is said to be 1% complete
nationally versus 3% this time a year ago.
This stabilising of crop conditions may mean that he worst is over for the
French crop, pegged today by Coceral at just 12.16 MMT, down 1 MMT from a year
ago, and that was hardly a vintage crop.
Coceral placed the French total grain harvest at 54.5 MMT, down 24% on 71.7
MMT a year ago. Overall the EU-28 cereal crop was placed at 293 MMT versus 311
MMT in 2015.
The EU-28 soft wheat crop was estimated at 134 MMT, some 14 MMT less than their
June forecast and 18 MMT below last year's record. Production in the UK was
placed at 14.7 MMT, down nearly 11% on 16.5 MMT a year ago.
Barley production in Europe is now seen at 59 MMT versus 61 MMT last year.
That's 4 MMT below their June estimate.
Total EU-28 corn output was forecast 1 MMT down from June, but 3 MMT above
last year, at 61 MMT.
Whilst there might be less grain around in Europe this year, that isn't the
case everywhere however. Wheat production in 2016/17 is forecast higher in Argentina,
Australia, Canada, the US, Russia and Kazakhstan - all big exporting nations.
Indeed, the current USDA forecast for the world wheat crop is 10 MMT higher
than it was a year ago, and for corn it's up by 68 MMT.
Russia's 2016 grain harvest has now reached the 108 MMT mark with 13.5% of
the planted area still left to cut, according to the Ag Ministry there. Wheat
production currently stands at 73.2 MMT off 92.5% of the cultivated area. Barley
harvesting is 94% complete at 18.5 MMT, and corn is 18.8% cut at 2.9 MMT. Plantings
for the 2017 harvest at now past 60% complete on 10.5 million ha.
Kazakhstan said that their harvest is 80% complete at 18.4 MMT, with final
production estimated at 22 MMT in bunker weight or 21 MMT in clean weight.
The day ended with Nov 16 London wheat up GBP1.05/tonne at GBP126.55/tonne,
Dec 16 Paris wheat was up EUR0.50/tonne at EUR162.00/tonne, Nov 16 corn was
unchanged at EUR162.00/tonne and Nov 16 Paris rapeseed was up EUR3.75/tonne
to EUR379.75/tonne matching the best close on a front month since Jun 13.
Heavy rain in the past week, following almost three months of dryness, will
allow planting of winter rapeseed to begin in France. Even so, hopes of increasing
sowings from last year's 1.5 million ha may now be dashed, according to media
Rain has also arrived in Ukraine to aid winter grain plantings there. More
rain is in the forecast in the week ahead. "Yesterday, rains hit the north
half of the country, even if they were light they are offering some relief to
a situation becoming critical," said Agritel.
Back in France, the late summer drought appears to have harmed corn production,
with early harvested yields said to be disappointing.
Bulgarian wheat has arrived in Dunkirk this week to feed the French starch
producing industry. FranceAgriMer has French wheat imports at 700 TMT this season,
although private estimates are 1 MMT or more (433 TMT in 2015/16).
Egypt's GASC are back in the market for wheat. "Doubts over Egypt’s
ability to meet requirements for its bread subsidy scheme is potentially behind
the change in ergot tolerance levels," said the HGCA.
"Each year Egypt’s import requirements are about 7% of total global
imports," they added. Their absence from the market therefore upsets the
global balance sheet.
Four sellers emerged with offers prepared to accept Egypt's terms, although
it's unclear yet if any were successful.
Ukraine said that it had agreed "informal" limits on grain exports
with shippers. These have been set at 16.5 MMT for wheat and 5.6 MMT for barley.
Morocco said that it had bought 310,000 MT of EU soft wheat under a preferential
Brussels confirmed that they'd released 452,000 MT worth of soft wheat export
licences, taking the volume granted so far this season to almost 25% higher
than a year ago.
France is unusually only third behind Romania and Germany in the table of countries
granted the most exports.
At the close Nov 16 London wheat was down GBP0.50/tonne at GBP125.50/tonne,
Dec 16 Paris wheat was EUR0.50/tonne higher to EUR161.50/tonne, Nov 16 Paris
corn was up EUR0.25/tonne at EUR162.00/tonne, Nov 16 Paris rapeseed was EUR2.25/tonne
lower at EUR376.00/tonne.
The pound regained some lost ground against the US dollar after the Fed left
US interest rates on hold and suggested that any rate rises would only be gradual.
London wheat's gains yesterday were linked to sterling weakness versus the US
Russia's IKAR raised their estimate for this year's corn harvest there from
14.0 MMT to 14.5 MMT (record), based on better than expected early yields.
Harvesting of that crop is 17.5% done so far at 2.7 MMT, with yields averaging
5.27 MT/ha versus 5.06 MT/ha a year ago.
Overall the Russian grain harvest now stands at 107.0 MMT off 85.4% of the
planted area. Wheat harvesting is 91.2% complete at 72.7 MMT. Barley adds a
further 18.4 MMT (93.4%) to the mix.
Russian plantings for the 2017 harvest are now reported at 58.4% complete on
10.1 million ha.
Kazakhstan's harvest is 88.6% done at 16.97 MMT.
Hungary is now gathering what they are forecasting to be a record 8 MMT corn
crop. They've also harvested 1.8 MMT of rapeseed and 5.1 MMT of wheat. Wet weather
means that only 40% of this year's wheat crop is suitable for milling.
There's rain in the 6-10 day forecast for Ukraine, which will be of benefit
to growers there waiting to begin planting winter wheat.
Egypt's GASC overturned the recent move to buy only wheat with a zero tolerance
to ergot, and immediately tendered for wheat for Oct 21-31 shipment with a 0.05%
ergot tolerance. Results of that are expected tomorrow.
The day ended with Nov 16 London up GBP1.60/tonne at GBP126.00/tonne, Dec 16
Paris wheat was up EUR1.25/tonne at EUR162.00/tonne, Nov 16 corn was up EUR1.00/tonne
at EUR161.75/tonne and Nov 16 rapeseed rose EUR3.50/tonne to EUR378.25/tonne.
London wheat got support from renewed sterling weakness, with the pound slipping
to a one month versus the US dollar as confidence in the British currency wanes.
Platts reported that Indian buyers have booked around 500,000 MT of Ukraine
wheat "under the radar" in the past 6 weeks as availability of state-owned
The Russian Ag Ministry raised their official grain production estimate to
113 MMT. There's nothing stunningly surprising about that, officially they've
already harvested 106.4 MMT with 15% of the planted area still left to go.
This year's Russian wheat harvest is now officially 72.4 MMT off 90.5% of the
planted area. Corn harvesting is 16.5% complete at 2.5 MMT.
The ADHB reported the average protein content of UK milling wheat samples at
a 10-year high 12.6% and hagbergs at 319, although specific weights are a bit
low at only 77.2kg/hl - the lowest in the last 4 years in fact.
Still, that's thankfully much better than the average quality of this year's
Ukraine said that it's 2016 grain harvest now stands at 40.8 MMT off 72% of
the planted area. New crop corn is 10% done at 2 MMT. Final production is estimated
as high as 26 MMT.
Winter grains planting in Ukraine is 19% complete and 90% of OSR is now sown.
Kazakhstan said that it had harvested more than 16.5 MMT of an expected final
crop of 22 MMT. Export potential this season is 9 MMT, according to the Ag Ministry.
The day ended with Nov 16 London wheat up GBP0.80/tonne at GBP124.40/tonne,
Dec 16 Paris wheat was up EUR1.75/tonne at EUR160.75/tonne, Nov 16 corn rose
EUR0.25/tonne to EUR160.75/tonne and Nov 16 Paris rapeseed was up EUR2.25/tonne
Egypt's Gasc held another fruitless wheat tender, picking up no offers in an
effort to buy wheat for October shipment under the new strict zero tolerance
to ergot rules.
APK Inform said that Russian grain exports via seaports fell to only 229.4
TMT last week, down from 429.8 TMT the previous week. Of the total shipped,
112.9 TMT was wheat, 77.5 TMT was barley and 32.5 TMT was corn.
Ukraine's seport exports were also down, but still considerably higher than
Russia's at 596.1 TMT (819.7 TMT the previous week), of which 480.8 TMT was
wheat, 104.5 TMT was barley and 10.8 TMT was corn.
Russia's season to date exports are down 2.7% year-on-year at 7.45 MMT (wheat
6.32 MMT, barley 1.0 MMT and corn 94 TMT).
Ukraine's exports so far are 8.51 MMT, of which 5.1 MMT is wheat, 2.75 MMT
barley and 583 TMT corn.
The 2016 Russian harvest is now 83.9% done according to the Ag Ministry, standing
at 105.5 MMT off 39.7 million ha. That includes 72 MMT of wheat (89.7% harvested),
18.3 MMT of barley (92.9% done) and 2.1 MMT of corn (14.1% complete).
Russian plantings for the 2017 harvest are said to be 54.3% done on an area
of 9.4 million ha (versus 9.0 million a year ago).
Oil World estimated Australia's 2016 rapeseed crop at 3.6 MMT (up sharply from
2.94 MMT a year ago, despite only a 4% rise in planted area).
At the close Nov 16 London wheat was up GBP0.85/tonne at GBP123.60/tonne, Dec
16 Paris wheat was EUR0.25/tonne higher to EUR159.00/tonne, Nov 16 Paris corn
was up EUR0.50/tonne at EUR160.50/tonne, Nov 16 Paris rapeseed was EUR0.75/tonne
higher at EUR372.50/tonne.
For the week London wheat was GBP2.25/tonne firmer, Paris wheat rose EUR0.75/tonne,
corn was EUR0.25/tonne easier and rapeseed slid EUR5.75/tonne.
A significantly weaker pound helped London wheat's cause this week, with sterling
closing at 1.30 versus the US dollar and below 1.17 against the euro.
Egypt tendered for wheat for Oct 15-25 shipment, but no offers were received
due to the new zero tolerance rules on ergot.
FranceAgriMer reported that French corn crop conditions declined again this
week, but this time by only the one point in the good to very good category
to 54%. Harvesting of that crop has yet to begin.
Russia said that their 2016 grain harvest is 81.8% done at 104.2 MMT. That
includes 71.2 MMT of wheat off 87.8% of the planned area, along with 18.2 MMT
of barley (92.3% harvested). New crop corn is 13.2% harvested producing more
than 2 MMT so far.
Russian plantings (mostly winter wheat) for the 2017 harvest are already past
halfway at 52% done on 9.0 million ha (8.1 million a year ago).
Ukraine said that it's winter grains (again mostly wheat) are 12% planted on
855k ha. Harvesting in Ukraine is 71% done at 40 MMT. Corn is 7% harvested at
The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that grain exports so far this season have reached
8.5 MMT, including 5.1 MMT of wheat and 2.8 MMT of barley.
Kazakhstan's 2016 harvest is 63.9% done at 14.6 MMT, with an expected final
production level of 22 MMT.
Back home, the HGCA said that "the reopening of the (Ensus) bioethanol
plant is a step in the right direction in terms of boosting domestic wheat usage
"Regional prices are influenced by regional supply and demand, effecting
their relationship to UK futures. Currently ex-farm feed wheat in the North
East are only at a narrow discount to UK futures," they noted.
The day ended with Nov 16 London up GBP0.50/tonne at GBP122.75/tonne, Dec 16
Paris wheat was down EUR0.50/tonne at EUR158.75/tonne, Nov 16 corn was down
EUR0.25/tonne at EUR160.00/tonne and Nov 16 rapeseed rose EUR3.25/tonne to EUR371.75/tonne.
FranceAgriMer said that the average specific weight on this year's French wheat
crop was 73 kg/hl, below the minimum requirement for flour making and well below
This suggests that "French millers will be looking for wheat outside of
domestic supplies," said the HGCA.
They also point out that "France usually accounts for around 25% of total
EU wheat production and is the main EU exporter, accounting for nearly a third
of the EU’s wheat exports," placing the 2016/17 marketing campaign
in a new light entirely.
Strategie Grains cast a further shadow over the entire EU crop, saying that
41% of this year's wheat is only of feed standard, up 7 points from last month's
estimate and versus 29% a year ago.
They also cut their forecast for the EU-28 soft wheat crop by 1.4 MMT from
a month ago to 136.5 MMT, a 10% reduction on last year. Exports in 2016/17 are
seen at 23.7 MMT, down 8 MMT% (-25%) from last season.
They estimated this year's EU-28 corn crop at 59.3 MMT, down 1.3 MMT on previously.
Russia officially reduced the export duty on wheat to zero today. Their harvest
currently stands at 103.2 MMT off 81.4% of the planned area. Wheat accounts
for 70.8 MMT of that total off 86.9% of plan.
Brussels confirmed 371 TMT worth of EU soft wheat export licences had been
issued this past week, with France picking up over 105 TMT worth. The season
to date total is now 5.4 MMT.
APK Inform estimated Ukraine's 2016 corn crop at 26.23 MMT versus 23.6 MMT
a year ago. They see 2016/17 exports at 17.5 MMT.
The day ended with Nov 16 London wheat down GBP0.15/tonne at GBP122.25/tonne,
Dec 16 Paris wheat was up EUR0.50/tonne at EUR159.25/tonne, Nov 16 corn rose
EUR0.25/tonne to EUR160.25/tonne and Nov 16 Paris rapeseed was down EUR3.00/tonne
FranceAgriMer released their latest figures on production, exports and stocks,
pegging the 2016 French wheat crop at a 33-year low of 28.47 MMT, down 30.3%
on last year. They see exports falling 43.4% in the 2016/17 season to 11.90
MMT (intra-EU 6.59 MMT, -15.6%; outside-EU 4.70 MMT, -61.8%) and ending stocks
declining 26.3% to 2.23 MMT.
Barley production is seen down 20% at 10.1 MMT, with exports falling 36.4%
to 4.89 MMT and ending stocks rising 22.7% to 1.46 MMT.
Corn production is forecast at 12.2 MMT, exports at 5.29 MMT and ending stocks
at 2.04 MMT.
In other news, the Russian harvest is now said to have reached 102.8 MMT off
80.9% of the planned area. Wheat accounts for 70.5 MMT of that (86.3% harvested),
barley 18.1 MMT (91.7%) and corn 1.6 MMT (10.1%).
Russian plantings for the 2017 harvest are approaching halfway done (47.7%
complete) on 8.3 million ha (7.4 million this time a year ago).
Rapeseed is doing it's best to resist the downwards pull of Chicago soybeans,
"Helping rapeseed prices resist the magnitude of the downward pull is
the news that Malaysian palm oil stocks have sunk to their lowest level in six
years as output struggles to recover from the recent El Nino and exports soar,"
said the HGCA.
Production in Europe this year is only now forecast at 20 MMT (USDA Monday),
the lowest since 2008/09 and versus 22.2 MMT a year ago and projected consumption
of 23.9 MMT.
At the close Nov 16 London wheat was up GBP0.45/tonne at GBP122.40/tonne, Dec
16 Paris wheat was EUR0.50/tonne higher to EUR158.75/tonne, Nov 16 Paris corn
was down EUR0.75/tonne at EUR160.00/tonne, Nov 16 Paris rapeseed was EUR3.75/tonne
lower at EUR371.50/tonne.
"With wheat harvests across Europe, the Black Sea region and the US approaching
completion, globally, grain markets remain on course for a fourth consecutive
surplus," noted the HGCA.
The French Ag Min lowered their forecast for this year's wheat crop there from
29.1 MMT to 28.2 MMT. The size of the 2016 corn crop was also lowered from 13.5
MMT to 12.5 MMT. Rapeseed was raised from 4.5 MMT to 4.7 MMT.
The Ukraine grain harvest is now 70% complete at 39 MMT, with the new corn
harvest 3% done at 487 TMT. Planting for the 2017 harvest is now 4% complete
on 298k ha under dry conditions.
A slightly wetter forecast for next week was introduced for Ukraine’s
winter wheat areas, although a dry pattern is still expected to dominate the
region, said FCStone.
Winter wheat typically accounts for around 93% of the winter grains area in
Ukraine. Winter OSR planting is more advanced at 86% done on 625k ha.
APK Inform said that Ukraine would export 17.7 MMT of corn in 2016/17, an increase
of 6%. They forecast barley exports at 5 MMT, up 13%.
Ukraine's Jan/Aug grain exports were 23.1 MMT, up 6% on a year previously.
Russia's 2016 harvest is 79% complete at 101 MMT, including 69.8 MMT of wheat
(85% harvested), 18 MMT of barley (91%) and 938.5 TMT of corn (6%). Planting
for the 2017 harvest is 43% complete on 7.4 million ha versus 6.7 million this
time last year.
The day ended with Nov 16 London up GBP0.60/tonne at GBP121.95/tonne, new front
month Dec 16 Paris wheat was unchanged at EUR158.25/tonne, Nov 16 corn was also
unchanged at EUR160.75/tonne and Nov 16 rapeseed fell EUR3.00/tonne to EUR375.25/tonne.
Wheat got a late boost from the USDA cutting global ending stocks from 252.8
MMT to 249.1 MMT versus trade expectations of a more marginal drop to 251.4
That triggered modest short-covering gains in US futures and helped drag EU
wheat off the lows of the day.
In Europe, production was cut from 147.5 MMT to 145.3 MMT (down 9% vs 160 MMT
a year ago) and 2016/17 export potential trimmed from 27 MMT to 26 MMT (down
25% year-on-year). EU wheat imports were raised 1 MMT to 7 MMT.
Elsewhere, production in Russia and Ukraine was unchanged at 72 MMT and 27
MMT respectively, but Kazakhstan was increased 1.5 MMT to 16.5 MMT. Russia's
export potential was left unchanged at a record 30 MT, but Ukraine's and Kazakhstan's
were increased 0.5 MMT each to 15 MMT and 8.5 MMT respectively.
The Ukraine increase came on the back of "projected demand from the EU
for feed quality wheat".
The USDA also cut the size of this year's EU corn crop by 1 MMT to 61.1 MMT,
but left imports unchanged at 12 MMT. This year's EU rapeseed crop was placed
at 20 MMT (down 10% on 22.2 MMT last year).
In other news, APK Inform said that Ukraine seaports exported 819.7 TMT of
grains last week, up from 661.4 TMT the previous week. Wheat accounted for 597.3
TMT of that total and barley 222.4 TMT. Thailand was the top home (110.6 TMT),
followed by the UAE (67 TMT) and Israel (65.8 TMT).
Russian exports via seaports dropped from 637.1 TMT to 429.8 TMT, with wheat
accounting for 391.5 TMT. Top home was Morocco (70.7 TMT).
Agritel said that this year's French corn crop might only make
12.5 MMT due to dry weather. FranceAgriMer cut crop conditions to 55% good/very
good on Thursday versus 71% at the beginning of August.