EU Reports
22-11-2014 15:49 PM | EU Reports
21/11/14 -- EU grains traded higher on the day, and higher for the week. Nov 14 London wheat expired, making Jan 15 the new front month.

At the close Jan 15 London wheat was up GBP2.25/tonne to GBP128.00/tonne, Jan 15 Paris wheat was EUR3.00/tonne firmer at EUR177.75/tonne, Jan 15 Paris corn was up EUR0.50/tonne to EUR152.25/tonne, whilst Feb 15 Paris rapeseed ended EUR1.25/tonne higher at EUR339.00/tonne.

For the week, Jan 15 London wheat gained GBP1.35/tonne, with Paris wheat adding EUR1.25/tonne, corn falling EUR0.75/tonne and rapeseed EUR3.25/tonne firmer.

London wheat is now at the best levels for a front month since mid-July, and Paris wheat is at its highest since early August.

Comments by ECB chief Mario Draghi were interpreted by the market as meaning that the bank is willing to further increase QE, which put the euro back under pressure today. The single currency slumped to its lowest levels against a resurgent dollar since Aug 2012, and is now down almost 10% against the US currency since the turn of the year.

EU wheat exports already remain very strong, and a weak euro will only help maintain that pace. Brussels issued a further 636,000 MT of soft wheat export licences this past week, taking the marketing year to date total to 11.5 MMT, which is almost a million tonnes ahead of this time a year ago when the final total went on to break all previous records.

FranceAgriMer said that the French corn harvest was 95% complete as of Monday, up 5 points on a week previously and 30 points ahead of this time a year ago.

Crop conditions for 2015 look promising at this early stage.

French winter wheat is now 98% planted versus 96% a week ago and 87% in 2013. The crop is 91% emerged versus 84% last week and 79% a year ago. They said that 38% of the crop is at the early tillering stage, up from 25% last week and ahead of only 24% a year ago.

The French winter barley crop has been 100% sown for a few weeks now. The proportion at the early tillering stage was estimated at 61%, up from 45% both a week and a year ago.

Winter wheat ratings dropped one percentage point from a week ago in the good to very good category to 93%, although that's not bad at all and still 10 points ahead of this time last year. Winter barley rated good to very good also fell a point on the week, and also to 93%, a year ago 81% of the crop was estimated to be in the top two categories.

If things look good in France, they're far from it in Russia where dryness remains a serious issue for their winter planted crops. "In the past 30 days only 13 mm of rainfall has developed in Krasnodar, Stavropol, Rostov and Volgograd, the 4 main winter wheat districts. That amounts to 37% of normal moisture. Dry weather this autumn also comes on the heels of a very dry summer. Less than half of normal rainfall occurred during June-August in the Southern District," say Martell Crop Projections.

SovEcon recently likened conditions this year to late 2009, Martell Crop Projections say that this year's drought is even worse. Wheat production in 2010 went on to be very poor, although a spring and early summer drought and heatwave were also contributory factors. World wheat prices doubled in the second half of 2010 through to early 2011 on the back of this you may recall.

Soaking spring rains will now be needed to save Russia's winter planted crops (mainly wheat) from becoming a similar disaster. This time round Russian growers also have the thorny problem of lack of easy access to credit to fund spring plantings and purchase other inputs. This could be as big, if not an even bigger issue than current crop conditions, one local commentator tells me.

The Russian Central Bank recently raised interest rates to 9.5% amidst a plunging rouble and raging inflation caused by Western sanctions. If you are a Russian farmer wanting to get a loan then your local bank is charging at least double that, and as much as 22%, if you can get one at all I understand.

22-11-2014 10:09 AM | EU Reports
21/11/14 -- EU grains traded higher on the day, and higher for the week. Nov 14 London wheat expired, making Jan 15 the new front month.

At the close Jan 15 London wheat was up GBP2.25/tonne to GBP128.00/tonne, Jan 15 Paris wheat was EUR3.00/tonne firmer at EUR177.75/tonne, Jan 15 Paris corn was up EUR0.50/tonne to EUR152.25/tonne, whilst Feb 15 Paris rapeseed ended EUR1.25/tonne higher at EUR339.00/tonne.

For the week, Jan 15 London wheat gained GBP1.35/tonne, with Paris wheat adding EUR1.25/tonne, corn falling EUR0.75/tonne and rapeseed EUR3.25/tonne firmer.

London wheat is now at the best levels for a front month since mid-July, and Paris wheat is at its highest since early August.

EU wheat exports remain very strong. Brussels issued a further 636,000 MT of soft wheat export licences this past week, taking the marketing year to date total to 11.5 MMT, which is almost a million tonnes ahead of this time a year ago when the final total went on to break all previous records.

FranceAgriMer said that the French corn harvest was 95% complete as of Monday, up 5 points on a week previously and 30 points ahead of this time a year ago.

Crop conditions for 2015 look promising at this early stage.

French winter wheat is now 98% planted versus 96% a week ago and 87% in 2013. The crop is 91% emerged versus 84% last week and 79% a year ago. They said that 38% of the crop is at the early tillering stage, up from 25% last week and ahead of only 24% a year ago.

The French winter barley crop has been 100% sown for a few weeks now. The proportion at the early tillering stage was estimated at 61%, up from 45% both a week and a year ago.

Winter wheat ratings dropped one percentage point from a week ago in the good to very good category to 93%, although that's not bad at all and still 10 points ahead of this time last year. Winter barley rated good to very good also fell a point on the week, and also to 93%, a year ago 81% of the crop was estimated to be in the top two categories.

If things look good in France, they're far from it in Russia where dryness remains a serious issue for their winter planted crops. "In the past 30 days only 13 mm of rainfall has developed in Krasnodar, Stavropol, Rostov and Volgograd, the 4 main winter wheat districts. That amounts to 37% of normal moisture. Dry weather this autumn also comes on the heels of a very dry summer. Less than half of normal rainfall occurred during June-August in the Southern District," say Martell Crop Projections.

SovEcon recently likened conditions this year to late 2009, Martell Crop Projections say that this year's drought is even worse. Wheat production in 2010 went on to be very poor, although a spring and early summer drought and heatwave were also contributory factors. World wheat prices doubled in the second half of 2010 through to early 2011 on the back of this you may recall.

Soaking spring rains will now be needed to save Russia's winter planted crops (mainly wheat) from becoming a similar disaster. This time round Russian growers also have the thorny problem of lack of easy access to credit to fund spring plantings and purchase other inputs. This could be as big, if not an even bigger issue than current crop conditions, one local commentator tells me.

The Russian Central Bank recently raised interest rates to 9.5% amidst a plunging rouble and raging inflation caused by Western sanctions. If you are a Russian farmer wanting to get a loan then your local bank is charging at least double that, and as much as 22%, if you can get one at all I understand.

21-11-2014 08:39 AM | EU Reports
20/11/14 -- EU grains closed mostly higher, supported by Egypt's GASC buying French wheat in a tender, even if it was only one cargo.

At the finish Nov 14 London wheat was up GBP1.40/tonne at GBP123.40/tonne, Jan 15 Paris wheat was EUR2.25/tonne higher at EUR174.75/tonne, Jan 15 Paris corn was EUR2.75/tonne firmer at EUR151.75/tonne, whilst Feb 15 Paris rapeseed rose EUR1.25/tonne to EUR337.75/tonne.

Egypt bought 60,000 MT of French wheat from Soufflet at $259.87/tonne including freight for Dec 21-31 shipment. The price was a little higher than the average $258.34/tonne paid in their last tender, although that was for a slightly better shipment period.

The purchase takes the total volume of wheat GASC have bought on the international arena for the 2014/15 shipment period to more than 2 MMT. That's still a far cry from the almost 5.5 MMT that they bought in 2013/14.

The world's largest wheat buyer recently stated that they had enough wheat bought to almost see them through to the start of their own domestic harvest in March. The Egyptian government pay way over current world wheat price levels to local producers in an effort to ensure increased domestic production.

This would seem to indicate that their international purchases may fall significantly in 2014/15 - which is after all the government's stated aim. Lack of credit is also an issue for them.

Elsewhere, Saudi Arabia are in the market tendering for 330,000 MT of 12.5% milling wheat for Feb/Mar shipment.

Israel bought 147,000 MT of optional origin corn (possibly Black Sea origin) for Jan/Apr shipment. They also cancelled a tender for 25,000 MT of optional origin wheat.

APK Inform estimated Ukraine’s 2014/15 wheat crop at 23.3 MMT, up 5% from a year ago, but more than 1MMT below the USDA's current forecast. They see this season's wheat exports however at 10.35 MMT versus the USDA estimate of 10.0 MMT. They also forecast Ukraine’s 2014/15 corn exports at 18.1 MMT versus a USDA estimate of 16.5 MMT.

The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that the country's 2014 grain harvest was now 97% done at 62 MMT.

MDA CropCast forecast the EU-28 wheat crop next year at 146.4 MMT, a 2 MMT reduction compared with their previous estimate and a 2.4% decrease on this year.

19-11-2014 18:59 PM | EU Reports
19/11/14 -- EU grains traded lower, following an afternoon slump in the US markets, which saw Chicago wheat post double digit losses and with corn almost matching it.

At the close Nov 14 London wheat - which goes off the board on Friday and has zero open interest - was nominally down GBP1.15/tonne to GBP122.00/tonne; Jan 15 Paris wheat was EUR0.75/tonne lower at EUR172.50/tonne; Jan 15 Paris corn fell EUR1.00/tonne to EUR149.00/tonne; Feb 15 Paris rapeseed ended EUR2.50/tonne easier at EUR336.50/tonne.

The pound recovered marginally from yesterday's 14 month low against the US dollar, and also added a little bit of weight versus the euro.

Sterling is still almost 8% lower against the dollar compared to where it stood in early July. It has also fallen from around 1.28 against the single currency to under 1.25 so far this month.

Lloyds Bank put back their forecast for a UK interest rate rise from Feb 15 to Aug 15. In contrast, they neared their estimate for when rates will start to rise in the US from Sep 15 to Jun 15.

They said that the recent fall in value of the pound may have been a little overdone though, forecasting an exchange rate of around 1.59 against the dollar and 1.27 versus the euro by the end of the year. Even so, they now see the STG/USD rate at 1.53 by the end of 2015.

A weaker pound would in theory help the chances of the UK winning some welcome wheat export business, although sales have been sluggish so far this season.

Very good corn yields are being reported out of France as their harvest draws to a close (90% done as of Nov 10).

The General Association of Maize Growers (AGPM) raised their forecast for this year's French corn crop from 17.25 MMT to a new record 18 MMT today.

Ukraine's Ministry of Economic Development forecast this year's grain crop at a record 63.2 MMT, which is slightly higher than 63.0 MMT a year ago. They see wheat production at 24 MMT, with a barley crop of 9 MMT and corn output of 28 MMT.

Exports this year were forecast at a record 36.7 MMT, including 11.8 MMT of wheat, 4.2 MMT of barley and 20.2 MMT of corn.

Ukraine's 2014/15 grain ending stocks were estimated at 7.7 MMT versus the 8.3 MMT left over at the end of last season.

Ukraine's grain exports so far this season stand at 14.173 MMT, including 7.157 MMT of wheat, 3.316 MMT of barley and 3.555 MMT of corn. They now appear to be concentrating their export efforts on the latter as the harvesting of that draws to a close.

Russia still has around 600k ha of wheat to harvest this year, mainly in Siberia and the Urals region, according to Agritel. They may struggle to get it all in now.

The Philippines are tendering for 116,400 MT of feed wheat from Australia, the EU or the Black Sea region for March-May shipment.

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology said that there is a 70% chance of an El Nino developing by the end of their summer, up from 50% previously. Whilst this would bring drier weather for much of Australia, it would also typically mean increased rainfall for South America and parts of the US.

19-11-2014 08:49 AM | EU Reports
18/11/14 -- EU grains traded mostly lower. At the close Nov 14 London wheat was down GBP0.50/tonne to GBP123.15/tonne, Nov 14 Paris wheat was EUR0.25/tonne easier at EUR173.25/tonne, Jan 15 Paris corn was down EUR2.00/tonne to EUR150.00/tonne, whilst Feb 15 Paris rapeseed ended EUR2.50/tonne higher at EUR339.00/tonne.

Once again, fresh news was hard to come by, and prices generally drifted lower.

There are reports of a 45,000 MT French feed wheat boat loading in Rouen bound for the east coast of the US. This is said to be the first such shipment in 12 years as the French search for new homes for their large feed wheat surplus this year.

There are also reports of 25,000 MT of German rapeseed meal going to the US this month.

The French government said that as of October 1st French farmers had sold 29.5 MMT of this year's grain harvest versus 28.0 MMT a year ago.

They also said that as of the same date French grain stocks were 20.1 MMT versus 19.4 MMT a year ago.

Qatar are said to be tendering for 40,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat for Jan-March shipment, and Jordan seeks 100,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat for April/May shipment.

Tunisia are also in the market, tendering for 92,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat for Dec-Jan shipment, along with 75,000 tons of optional origin barley for the same period.

The HGCA estimated the UK cost of production of feed wheat for the 2014 harvest at around GBP151/tonne.

Ukraine said that their 2014 grain harvest was now 97% done at 61.7 MMT. The corn harvest currently stands at 25.2 MMT, they said.

The Russian harvest is also 97% complete at almost 110 MMT.

18-11-2014 09:49 AM | EU Reports
17/11/14 -- EU grains closed mostly mixed amidst a general lack of fresh news. Sterling weakness was again a supportive factor for London wheat, not that there's much sign of it leading to increased export activity just yet.

At the finish Nov 14 London wheat was down GBP0.35/tonne at GBP123.65/tonne, Jan 15 Paris wheat was EUR3.00/tonne lower at EUR173.50/tonne, Jan 15 Paris corn was EUR1.00/tonne weaker at EUR152.00/tonne, whilst Feb 15 Paris rapeseed was up EUR0.75/tonne to EUR336.50/tonne.

The pound fell to a new lowest level in more than a year against the US dollar. It's currently down 2.2% against the US currency so far this month. You may recall it's been noted on here before that November is traditionally a bad month for "cable" (the pound/dollar), sterling has fallen against the greenback for 10 of the last 14 years, and 14 of the last 20.

Russia announced that it's grain harvest was now past 97% done at 109.6 MMT in bunker weight. That includes 62.1 MMT of wheat, 21.2 MMT of barley and 10.2 MMT of corn. Harvesting of the latter has now reached 90% complete.

The harvest in Siberia is 95% done and in the Urals region it's only 87.5% complete.

Customs data shows that Russia exported 2.47 MMT of wheat in October. That's 17% less than in September, but a 35.5% rise versus 12 months previously. Egypt was the top home, accounting for more than 25% of exports last month.

Russia said that it had exported 1.274 MMT of grains in the Nov 1-12 period, including 912 TMT of wheat, 274 TMT of barley and 71 TMT of corn.

That takes the marketing year to date export total to 16.242 MMT, a 39% rise compared with a year ago. Of that total 13.233 MMT is wheat, 2.211 MT is barley and 658 TMT is corn.

APK Inform said that Ukraine's grain exports via seaports fell noticeably last week, down to 472.5 TMT from 666.5 TMT the previous week, without offering a reason why. Wheat accounted for 28% of that total, and corn 70%. The trend towards majoring on corn exports continues, as last week's proportion of total exports was 65% and the week before it was 53%.

The Ukraine State Statistics Service said the country's grain stocks as on Nov 1 were up 31% compared with a year ago.

The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that 89% of the country's planted winter grains area had emerged, and that 83% of that was in good to satisfactory condition.

The acute weakness of both the Russian rouble and Ukraine hryvnia may be leading farmers to "hoard" their remaining grain stocks it is thought. Domestic offers are hard to find in both countries, by all accounts.

18-11-2014 08:59 AM | EU Reports
17/11/14 -- EU grains closed mostly mixed amidst a general lack of fresh news. Sterling weakness was again a supportive factor for London wheat, not that there's much sign of it leading to increased export activity just yet.

At the finish Nov 14 London wheat was down GBP0.35/tonne at GBP123.65/tonne, Jan 15 Paris wheat was EUR3.00/tonne lower at EUR173.50/tonne, Jan 15 Paris corn was EUR1.00/tonne weaker at EUR152.00/tonne, whilst Feb 15 Paris rapeseed was up EUR0.75/tonne to EUR336.50/tonne.

The pound fell to a new lowest level in more than a year against the US dollar. It's currently down 2.2% against the US currency so far this month. You may recall it's been noted on here before that November is traditionally a bad month for "cable" (the pound/dollar), sterling has fallen against the greenback for 10 of the last 14 years, and 14 of the last 20.

Russia announced that it's grain harvest was now past 97% done at 109.6 MMT in bunker weight. That includes 62.1 MMT of wheat, 21.2 MMT of barley and 10.2 MMT of corn. Harvesting of the latter has now reached 90% complete.

The harvest in Siberia is 95% done and in the Urals region it's only 87.5% complete.

Customs data shows that Russia exported 2.47 MMT of wheat in October. That's 17% less than in September, but a 35.5% rise versus 12 months previously. Egypt was the top home, accounting for more than 25% of exports last month.

Russia said that it had exported 1.274 MMT of grains in the Nov 1-12 period, including 912 TMT of wheat, 274 TMT of barley and 71 TMT of corn.

That takes the marketing year to date export total to 16.242 MMT, a 39% rise compared with a year ago. Of that total 13.233 MMT is wheat, 2.211 MT is barley and 658 TMT is corn.

APK Inform said that Ukraine's grain exports via seaports fell noticeably last week, down to 472.5 TMT from 666.5 TMT the previous week, without offering a reason why. Wheat accounted for 28% of that total, and corn 70%. The trend towards majoring on corn exports continues, as last week's proportion of total exports was 65% and the week before it was 53%.

The Ukraine State Statistics Service said the country's grain stocks as on Nov 1 were up 31% compared with a year ago.

The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that 89% of the country's planted winter grains area had emerged, and that 83% of that was in good to satisfactory condition.

The acute weakness of both the Russian rouble and Ukraine hryvna may be leading farmers to "hoard" their remaining grain stocks it is thought. Domestic offers are hard to find in both countries, by all accounts.

17-11-2014 09:09 AM | EU Reports
14/11/14 -- EU grains were mostly higher on the day and all were higher for the week.

At the close Nov 14 London wheat was up GBP0.80/tonne to GBP124.00/tonne, Jan 15 Paris wheat was EUR0.50/tonne higher at EUR176.50/tonne, Jan 15 Paris corn was up EUR1.00/tonne to EUR153.00/tonne, whilst Feb 15 Paris rapeseed ended EUR1.50/tonne lower at EUR335.75/tonne.

On a front month basis London wheat gained GBP6.70/tonne during the course of the week, with Paris wheat up EUR13.75/tonne (although last week's marker was set by the Nov 14 contract which expired on Monday), corn up EUR6.00/tonne and rapeseed EUR1.25/tonne firmer.

The sudden weakness of the pound across the board has also been a notable feature this week. Whilst sterling has been in a downtrend against the firm US dollar since July when it peaked at around 1.72, its been hovering around the 2-year high 1.28 mark against the euro in recent weeks.

That's all changed this week, following comments from the BoE governor Carney that suggested that a UK interest rate rise is potentially much further away than the market anticipated.

On the week, the UK currency fell from 1.5877 to 1.5665 against the US dollar, and was down from 1.2744 to 1.2510 versus the euro.

This potentially helps to make UK wheat more competitive on the export front, as well as increasing the cost of dollar/euro denominated imports.

FranceAgriMer said that the French corn harvest is now 90% complete, up from 79% done a week ago and way ahead of only 56% this time last year.

Winter wheat planting is 96% complete versus 91% last week and 81% a year ago. A quarter of the crop is at the early tillering stage versus 16% a year ago. They said that 94% of the crop is in good to very good condition compared to 86% a year ago.

French winter barley is fully sown versus 97% this time last year and 45% is at the early tillering stage compared to 34% a year ago. Crop conditions are rated 94% good to very good against 85% this time last year.

The UK has imported 301 TMT of corn in the Jul-Sep period, a 22% decline on a year ago, but still an historically large volume, customs data shows. France is the largest supplier to date, being responsible for 118 TMT of that total.

Black Earth Farming became the latest organisation to flag up potential problems with Russia's wheat crop for 2015. After a wet spring/early summer, which saw the 2014 crop through to harvest with decent yields, it's turned very dry.

"On about 70% of our area the cumulative rainfall for our farms this year to date is now below 2010 levels and very substantially below seven-year averages," they said according to a report on Agrimoney.

17-11-2014 08:49 AM | EU Reports

14/11/14 -- EU grains traded mostly higher, with wheat pressing on to new highs for the recent move.

At the close Nov 14 London wheat was up GBP0.80/tonne to GBP124.00/tonne, Jan 15 Paris wheat was EUR0.50/tonne higher at EUR176.50/tonne, Jan 15 Paris corn was up EUR1.00/tonne to EUR153.00/tonne, whilst Feb 15 Paris rapeseed ended EUR1.50/tonne lower at EUR335.75/tonne.

Sterling weakness helped London wheat, after recent comments by BoE chief Carney pushed back the prospect of an interest rate rise here well into 2015.

French analysts Strategie Grains raised their forecast for EU soft wheat exports this season from 24.2 MMT to 26.8 MMT. That cuts ending stocks here from the near 19 MMT forecast a month ago to around 17 MMT.

That's still a fairly large volume compared to more like 10 MMT a year previously though.

They upped their forecast for this season's soft wheat crop by 300 TMT to 147.7 MMT, a 9% rise on a year ago. They also raised their outlook on corn production this year to 73.5 MMT.

Taking a glance into next year they forecast the EU-28 all wheat crop at 148.7 MMT in 2015, a 4% drop on this year.

Sticking with that theme, at home the HGCA estimated UK wheat plantings for the 2015 harvest at 1.832 million hectares, a 5% fall versus a year ago.

UK winter barley plantings were estimated at 476k ha, a 12% rise compared to a year ago. Spring barley showings were forecast up 9% at 713k ha. The OSR area will fall 4% to 649k ha, they estimate.

MDA CropCast estimated the EU-28 all wheat crop next year at a little less than Strategie Grains, coming up with a figure of 148.4 MMT.

They also see output in Russia and Ukraine declining next year, in common with most other analysts, although maybe not at the moment by as much as some.

16-11-2014 18:39 PM | EU Reports

14/11/14 -- EU grains traded mostly higher, with wheat pressing on to new highs for the recent move.

At the close Nov 14 London wheat was up GBP0.80/tonne to GBP124.00/tonne, Nov 14 Paris wheat was EUR0.50/tonne higher at EUR176.50/tonne, Jan 15 Paris corn was up EUR1.00/tonne to EUR153.00/tonne, whilst Feb 15 Paris rapeseed ended EUR1.50/tonne lower at EUR335.75/tonne.

Sterling weakness helped London wheat, after recent comments by BoE chief Carney pushed back the prospect of an interest rate rise here well into 2015.

French analysts Strategie Grains raised their forecast for EU soft wheat exports this season from 24.2 MMT to 26.8 MMT. That cuts ending stocks here from the near 19 MMT forecast a month ago to around 17 MMT.

That's still a fairly large volume compared to more like 10 MMT a year previously though.

They upped their forecast for this season's soft wheat crop by 300 TMT to 147.7 MMT, a 9% rise on a year ago. They also raised their outlook on corn production this year to 73.5 MMT.

Taking a glance into next year they forecast the EU-28 all wheat crop at 148.7 MMT in 2015, a 4% drop on this year.

Sticking with that theme, at home the HGCA estimated UK wheat plantings for the 2015 harvest at 1.832 million hectares, a 5% fall versus a year ago.

UK winter barley plantings were estimated at 476k ha, a 12% rise compared to a year ago. Spring barley showings were forecast up 9% at 713k ha. The OSR area will fall 4% to 649k ha, they estimate.

MDA CropCast estimated the EU-28 all wheat crop next year at a little less than Strategie Grains, coming up with a figure of 148.4 MMT.

They also see output in Russia and Ukraine declining next year, in common with most other analysts, although maybe not at the moment by as much as some.

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