At the close Jan 17 London wheat was up GBP1.50/tonne at GBP145.90/tonne, Mar
17 Paris wheat was EUR0.75/tonne higher at EUR169.75/tonne, Mar 17 Paris corn
was down a euro at EUR167.50/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was up EUR0.25/tonne
Trade was quiet awaiting the USDA data late in European trading hours.
That put the US HRW wheat area for the 2017 harvest 23.3 million acres, which
is 12% lower than a year ago. All wheat acres were estimated at 32.38 million
ha, down 3.75 million from last year and at the lower end of the range of trade
forecasts. This is the second lowest winter wheat area on record, and the lowest
Global wheat production, already at a record, was raised even higher this month
mainly on larger crops in Argentina, the EU, and Russia.
Global trade was boosted to a new record with stronger import demand from several
Asian countries and Brazil. Larger exports for Australia, Argentina, and the
EU were partially offset by a decrease for Canada, they said.
EU 2016/17 production was increased 350 TMT to 144.32 MMT, and exports nudged
500 TMT higher to 25.5 MMT. This year's Russian crop was upped 500 TMT to 72.5
World ending stocks for 2016/17 were increased 1.15 MMT to 253.3 MMT. Ending
stocks-to-use ratio for 2016/17 is now projected at 34.2% versus 34.1% in December
and 33.8% a year previously.
The day ended with Jan 17 London wheat up GBP1.05/tonne at GBP144.40/tonne,
Mar 17 Paris wheat was down EUR0.75/tonne at EUR169.00/tonne, Mar 17 Paris corn
was down EUR0.50/tonne to EUR168.50/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed fell EUR0.25/tonne
The pound fell as low as 1.15 versus the euro, a level last seen two months
ago. It was also down to 1.22 against the US dollar.
It's a big day for the grain markets tomorrow, with the USDA due to release
their first world supply and demand numbers of the new year.
The figures could be unusually important for US winter wheat plantings. "Analysts
expect this figure to show a drop of 2.0m acres year on year to 34.1m acres,
the lowest since 1913, but with some ideas that the figure could be lower –
substantially," said Agrimoney.
Closer to home, FranceAgriMer revised upwards their estimate for French soft
wheat exports to non-EU destinations, up from 4.7 MMT to 4.8 MMT, but that's
still massively below last season's 12.6 MMT figure.
Ending stock were cut to 2.365 MMT from the 2.683 MMT seen last month.
Turkey tendered for 230,000 MT of EU high quality milling wheat.
At the finish Jan 17 London wheat was down GBP0.80/tonne at GBP143.35/tonne,
Mar 17 Paris wheat fell EUR1.25/tonne to EUR169.75/tonne, Mar 17 Paris corn
ended EUR0.75/tonne lower at EUR169.00/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed closed
EUR1.75/tonne higher at EUR415.50/tonne.
Ukraine said that it's 2016/17 grain exports had now surpassed 23 MMT, of which
11.5 MMT was wheat ,4.3 MMT barley and 7.1 MMT corn. According to their Ag Ministry
exports this full season could total 40 MMT.
The Ukraine weather centre said that 83% of winter crops were in a good to
satisfactory condition, and 17% weak/thinned. Current winter snow cover is adequate
to protect the bulk of crops against the existing very low temperatures, they
Russia experienced a significant slowdown of export pace during December 2016
with 3.3 MMT of cereals shipped which is -0.7 MMT under the November volume
or -0.8 MMT below December 2015, noted Agritel.
"More than weather conditions or festivities period, this slowdown is
due to the decline of commodities on domestic market implied by the strength
of the rouble," they commented.
At the close Jan 17 London wheat was up GBP1.50/tonne at GBP144.15/tonne, Mar
17 Paris wheat was EUR0.25/tonne easier at EUR171.00/tonne, Mar 17 Paris corn
was unchanged at EUR169.75/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was down EUR2.50/tonne
APK Inform reported that Russia's grain exports for the two week period ending
Jan 5 came in at almost 1 MMT, including 774.2 TMT of wheat, 179.9 TMT of corn
and 30.9 TMT of barley.
Ukraine's exports in the same period were almost 1.5 MMT, including 491.2 TMT
of wheat, 967.9 TMT of corn and 32.2 TMT of barley.
French soft wheat exports are down 33% Jul/Nov at 4.1 MMT. Nov exports of only
656 TMT marked the sixth straight month of decline for what is traditionally
Europe's largest exporter.
FranceAgriMer currently forecast total French exports in 2016/17 down 47% at
10.1 MMT versus last last season.
Bangladesh's wheat imports surged 85% in the July 1-Dec 22nd period to 2.79
MMT. Imports for the whole of 2016/17 are currently estimated to rise 400 TT
to 5.1 MMT, according to the latest data from the USDA.
The day ended with Jan 17 London wheat up GBP1.35/tonne at GBP142.65/tonne,
Mar 17 Paris wheat was up EUR1.25/tonnr at EUR171.25/tonne, Mar 17 Paris corn
was up EUR0.25/tonne to EUR169.25/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed fell EUR2.75/tonne
For the week that puts London wheat GBP3.75/tonne higher In Paris, wheat is
up EUR3.25/tonne, corn is up EUR1.25/tonne and rapeseed has gained EUR6.25/tonne.
Brussels reported 140 TMT worth of EU soft wheat exports this past week. That
takes the season to date total to 12.87 MMT. Cumulative barley exports stand
at 2.1 MMT, and corn imports are 4.7 MMT.
A harsh cold snap gripping the Black Sea area is expected to last a few more
days yet, and could cause some winterkill issues for wheat unprotected by an
adequate snow coverage.
In the US, Farm Futures magazine indicates winter wheat seedings of only 34.8
million acres, the lowest total since 1913, as growers switch to other crops.
The FAO said that Russia will harvest 115 MMT of grains this season, up 13%
versus last year. Production in Ukraine will rise 6% to 63 MMT, they added.
At the finish Jan 17 London wheat was up GBP1.40/tonne at GBP141.30/tonne,
Mar 17 Paris wheat was up EUR0.25/tonne at EUR170.00/tonne, Mar 17 Paris corn
ended unchanged at EUR169.50/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed closed EUR1.00/tonne
lower at EUR418.00/tonne.
France reported a 29% drop in exports from the leading port of Rouen in the
week ending January 4th, to 53 TMT. That week’s total included 23.45 TMT
of soft wheat to Tunisia and 29.5 TMT to Yemen.
Algeria are said to have bought up to 475 TMT of optional origin soft wheat
at a around $198-$202/MT C&F.
Russia said that their 2016/17 grain exports were down 3.7% at 19.73 MMT. That
includes 15.44 MMT of wheat, 1.83 MMT of barley and 2,32 MMT of corn.
Ukraine’s 2017 corn crop is estimated to be down 13%, or 3.5 MMT, to
23.5 MMT, according to UkrAgroConsult.
At the close Jan 17 London wheat was up GBP0.55/tonne at GBP139.90/tonne, Mar
17 Paris wheat was EUR0.50/tonne higher at EUR169.75/tonne, Jan 17 Paris corn
was EUR0.50/tonne lower at EUR174.50/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was up
EUR4.25/tonne to EUR419.00/tonne.
Russian and Ukraine exports slowed up to virtual halt last week due to the
holiday, with the former shipping out only 24.3 MMT and the latter 40.3 MMT,
according to APK Inform Agency.
News out of Russia is scarce as many there observe the extended Russian Orthodox
"Wheat plantings in Ukraine as at 1 December are pegged at 6.1 million
ha, up from 6.0 million at the same point last year – although this would
still be a smaller winter wheat area than all other years at least back to 2008,"
say the HGCA. Winter barley is pegged at 0.9 million ha, down from 1 million
last year, making for also the smallest winter barley area since 2008, they
"Higher oilseed plantings, particularly winter OSR (up 0.2 million ha
to 0.9 million ha), are driven by the increasingly favourable relationship of
oilseed to grain. That's an increase of 28.5%, which is also likely due to that
fact that plantings were hindered by a particularly dry late summer and autumn
Ukraine wheat output in 2017 is expected to decline 3.5 MMT to 23.5 MMT, say
AGPM estimated the French corn crop at 12.3 MMT, significantly higher than
FranceAgrimer’s 11.45 MMT figure.