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19/06/13 -- EU grains traded higher for a second day, seemingly on ideas that the recent slump in prices may have been overdone.

Jul 13 London wheat finished the day GBP1.30/tonne firmer at GBP163.05/tonne, and with Nov 13 ending up GBP2.05/tonne at GBP170.05/tonne. Nov 13 Paris wheat settled EUR3.00/tonne steadier at EUR199.75/tonne.

A report on Reuters suggested that China may have bought around 200 TMT of new crop French wheat.

ODA said that some French fields may have sustained recent hail damage in the Centre, Charentes and Pays-de-la-Loire regions. Other reports suggest that thunderstorms yesterday damaged crops in the South West too.

Russia sold 34,290 MT of intervention grains at auction, bringing the total sold so far since sales began last October to over 3.5 MMT.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the country will not be issuing a grain export embargo in 2013/14.

Ukraine's Ag Ministry said that the country has harvested 300 TMT of grain so far this season with an average yield of 2.3 MT/ha versus 1.6 MT/ha a year ago.

The latest figures from UK Customs & Excise show Jul12/Apr13 domestic wheat imports at 2.38 MMT, an increase of 325% on the same period in 2011/12. April imports were almost 256 TMT versus exports of only 28 TMT.

These imports are already within touching distance of the current Defra forecast for full season of 2.537 MMT. With imports currently running at around 250 TMT/month it looks likely that we will exceed this official estimate and probably end up importing around 2.9 MMT of wheat in 2012/13.

That means that despite last year’s disappointing harvest, UK ending stocks at the close of the current season could actually be well over the 2 MMT mark, which is historically rather high.

Corn imports into the UK in 2013/14 are also expected to continue to be high. New crop Ukraine corn traded into South Korea yesterday at USD259/tonne C&F, the equivalent of around GBP166/tonne.

Ukraine corn is offered in the market at USD222/tonne FOB for October, circa GBP142/tonne before freight and discharge costs are added. Ukraine origin milling wheat is quoted at USD256/tonne (or GBP163.50/tonne) for July shipment FOB. French milling wheat is offered at EUR192/tonne (GBP164.75/tonne) for July delivery to Rouen and French new crop feed barley is around EUR179/tonne (GBP153.50/tonne), say Agritel.

18/06/13 -- EU grains closed mostly higher in what looks like a long overdue spot of consolidation following the recent rout. The bears are still firmly in control however, and that's unlikely to change as the Black Sea harvest gets going just ahead of the combines starting to move in here in Europe too.

Jul 13 London wheat finished the day GBP1.00/tonne firmer at GBP161.75/tonne, and with Nov 13 ending GBP3.00/tonne higher at GBP168.00/tonne. Nov 13 Paris wheat rose EUR1.00/tonne lower at EUR196.75/tonne.

Early reports out of Russia say that 140,200 hectares have been harvested so far in the south of the country, producing 682,600 MT of grains with an average yield of 4.87 MT/ha, up 63% on a year ago. Yields in Krasnodar are up up 32%, whilst in Stavropol they are said to be up 78%. The Russian Ministry are forecasting a grain crop of 95 MMT this year, up almost a third on a year ago.

Ukraine is reporting similar results, with 79,200 ha of land harvested so far with an average yield of 2.25 MT/ha, 37% up versus 1.64 MT/ha this time last year. Yields should improve as the harvest progresses west and north. The Ukraine Ministry are currently forecasting a grain crop of 53-54 MMT, up 15-17% on last year.

The Ukraine Ministry also say that the country had exported 22.48 MMT of grains this marketing year so far (to June 1), including 7 MMT of wheat, almost 13 MMT of corn and over 2 MMT of barley. They estimate 2012/13 ending stocks at 5.78 MMT.

ODA maintained their French soft wheat crop forecast at 36 MMT, a 4 year high. The French durum crop is normally around 2.1-2.3 MMT, taking total all wheat output this year very close to the USDA's current 38.2 MMT prediction.

South Korea are reported to have bought optional origin corn, thought most likely to be sourced from the Black Sea, at USD259.23/tonne C&F. That's said to be their cheapest corn purchase in more than a year. The Asian nation is reported to have bought in excess of 1.3 MMT of corn and wheat on the recent price dip.

Bloomberg are reporting that the UK OSR crop could fall to 1.5-2.0 MMT this year, a drop of anywhere from 20-40% on last year and at least the lowest since 2009 (and possibly the smallest since 2002), meaning that the UK could become a net importer for the first time in four years in 2013/14.

AgriFood Canada are forecasting a rapeseed crop there of 14.1 MMT, up 6% on last year despite a lower planted area. They see this year's Canadian wheat crop at 29.4 MMT, up 8%, with barley production increasing up 6% to 13.8 MMT and corn output rising more than 5% to 13.8 MMT.

Sources report that new crop Black Sea feed barley is offered around USD248/tonne FOB (circa GBP159/tonne). New crop French milling wheat deld Rouen (July) is quoted at EUR192/tonne, circa GBP164.80/tonne based on this evening's late (and reduced) exchange rates of around 1.1650 versus the euro and 1.56 against the dollar.

17/06/13 -- EU grains slumped to new lows once more as Jul 13 London wheat finished the day GBP2.50/tonne easier at GBP160.75/tonne, and with Nov 13 ending GBP0.30/tonne down at GBP165.00/tonne. Nov 13 Paris wheat settled EUR0.50/tonne lower at EUR195.75/tonne.

Jul 13 London wheat traded down to GBP160.00/tonne at one point - a near 13 month low for the contract and the lowest level for a front month since January 2012. Both London and Paris wheat are down around 22% since the turn of the year on the front month continuous chart.

Jul 13 London wheat has now closed lower in 10 of the last 12 trading sessions, losing GBP22.75/tonne during this bear run.

The EU is looking like having a relatively average crop this year. Good in some places, not so good in others, although yield potential is generally seen better than it was a month ago. The Black Sea is shaping up for a strong rebound in output, and that is what is hanging over the market right now, and is dragging world prices lower.

The EU Commission's MARS unit said that crop conditions across the continent have been mixed during the past month. "An over-wet and cold May has constrained crop development in large parts of central Europe. Good conditions prevailed in Romania, Hungary, and, especially, Spain where an excellent season boosts spring barley forecast yields," they observed.

EU-wide soft wheat yields were forecast up fractionally from last month to 5.55 MT/ha, a 2.6% increase on last year. Barley yields are seen at 4.68 MT/ha versus 4.56 MT/ha last month, a 7.6% increase on 2012, whilst corn yields are expected to jump to 7.13 MT/ha, from the 6.87 MT/ha estimated in May and up more than 20% on 5.91 MT/ha last year. OSR yields are seen averaging 3.02 MT/ha, down slightly from the 3.06 MT/ha forecast last month and 2.6% lower than last year.

Yields in the UK, France and Germany were forecast unchanged to slightly lower this month compared to May. In France, where they said that cold and wet conditions have delayed crop growth, soft wheat yield potential was revised down from 6.91 MT/ha to 6.87 MT/ha, a 4.6% decline on last year's 7.2 MT/ha. Germany's soft wheat yields were pegged at 7.35 MT/ha compared to 7.48 MT/ha last month but little changed from 7.33 MT/ha in 2012. UK wheat yields were estimated at 7.63 MT/ha versus 7.68 MT/ha last month, but up almost 11% on last year's 6.88 MT/ha.

In Germany they said that "wet conditions in the south and east of the country are constraining plant development on heavy soils, while conditions are more favourable in the north-west. Yields are now close to or below the 5-years average for all crops." In the UK "a period of favourable weather conditions has sustained steady crop growth. However, both winter and spring crops still show a strong developmental delay. They retain a fair yield potential, but the shift in time exposes them to higher risks," they noted.

In Spain "below-average temperatures are favouring the ripening of winter crops in southern regions. Spring cereals are currently starting the grain-filling stage under favourable weather conditions. Yield potentials both for winter and spring cereals are among the highest ever," they added.

Russian spring grain plantings have been completed on 30.4 million hectares, up slightly on the 30.3 million originally estimated by the Ministry. APK Inform forecast the 2013 Russian wheat crop at 52.1 MMT, in line with other trade estimates and 38% up on last year. They say that the wheat exportable surplus in 2013/14 will be 15 MMT.

APK Inform estimated the Kazakhstan wheat crop at 14.3 MMT, up 46% on last year, although lower than the USDA's 15.0 MMT.

The Ukraine Weather Centre forecast wheat production there this year at 20.0 MMT, a 27% increase on the 2012/13 crop, and a bit higher than the USDA's 19.5 MMT estimate. The local Stats Office say Jun 1 grain stocks in Ukraine were 6.3 MMT, down 42% on year ago levels, including 2.6 MMT of corn, 2.5 MMT of wheat and 0.7 MMT of barley.

Winter wheat harvesting in the US is also underway, adding a little bit of seasonal pressure, although early results are mixed. The USDA will report tonight on crop conditions and planting progress for spring wheat (only 80% done last week versus the 5-year average of 92%) as well as those for corn and soybeans. Weather forecasts for the week ahead are generally favourable offering warmer and drier conditions.

South Korea is tendering for 55 TMT of feed wheat for October shipment which may go to the Black Sea. They are also in for 140 TMT of corn for Oct/Nov shipment, including Black Sea origin for the first time, along with 6 TMT of feed barley for October shipment.

14/06/13 -- EU grains slumped to fresh lows for the current move, with London wheat down to front month levels not seen since February 2012 and Paris wheat at its lowest since January 2012. The last time Paris rapeseed prices were at this level meanwhile was November 2011.

Jul 13 London wheat finished the day GBP3.25/tonne lower at GBP163.25/tonne, and with Nov 13 ending GBP3.20/tonne down at GBP165.30/tonne. Nov 13 Paris wheat settled EUR1.50/tonne easier at EUR196.25/tonne. Aug 13 Paris rapeseed was EUR2.50/tonne weaker at EUR416.75/tonne.

At the end of another brutal week for European grains we see Jul 13 London wheat down GBP10.75/tonne versus last Friday and Nov 13 GBP9.95/tonne easier. Nov 13 Paris wheat lost EUR7.50/tonne on the course of the week and Aug 13 Paris rapeseed shed EUR9.50/tonne.

Brussels issued 160 TMT of soft wheat export licenses this past week, bringing the 2012/13 marketing year total to 18.4 MMT, up by almost 50% on this time a year ago. Whilst that might sound bullish, they also issued 161 TMT of corn import licenses, which takes this season's total to 10.4 MMT, up 79% on 2011/12.

The Russian and Ukraine harvests are now underway, around 10 days earlier than normal. Dow Jones report barley yields in Russia's southern Krasnodor region have averaged 5.28 MT/ha so far, up 28% on the early harvest results of last season. In Stavropol early barley yields were said to be 3.71 MT/ha, up 74% versus last year. Impressive looking results, although it is possible that growers in the region decided to combine the poorer looking crops first last year.

Goldman Sachs issued a very bearish looking report late Thursday night by all accounts, suggesting that US corn prices could fall to USD4.75/bushel and soybean prices to the 2011 lows of USD11.00/bushel. There's even mention of USD4.25/bushel and USD10.00/bushel should the USDA's current forecast for record corn and soybean production in the US this year come true.

The Argentine wheat crop meanwhile is 30% planted, the same as this time a year ago. What's different from 12 months ago though is that the Argentine agriculture minister says that the crop could be "about" 16 MMT this year which would be up almost 78% on last year. That would be around the kind of production that they regularly used to achieve in the last decade of the "noughties" when they were a stalwart figure in the world's top six wheat exporting nations.

Russia's Ag Ministry estimated Russia’s 2013 grain crop at 95.0 MMT, up 32.5% versus 71.7 MMT a year ago

Ukraine's Ag Ministry estimated 2013/14 wheat exports at 8-9 MMT, with corn exports at a record 17.0 MMT and barley exports at 2.0 MMT.

Bulgaria's Ag Ministry said that wheat production there this year would be up 7-9% on 2012 to 4.7-4.8 MMT.

Australia's ABARES yesterday raised their wheat production estimate there this year to 25.4 MMT, up 15% on last year on a combination of a higher planted area and better anticipated yields.

Essentially most of the big exporting nations, with the exception of the US and India, and the majority of the traditionally cheap sellers in the FSU and Eastern Europe are looking at a significant production recovery in 2013. To many of those sellers price is an almost secondary consideration.

The regular weekly crop report from FranceAgriMer shows that all is not ideal with the corn in particular there though. Corn planting only rose from 89% complete a week ago to 92% complete this week (versus 100% a year ago), and good/excellent crop conditions fell two percentage points to 60% versus 71% a year ago. Corn with 6-8 leaves visible is only 35% against 72% this time last year.

French winter wheat headed was at 90% versus 100% last year, good/excellent ratings held steady from a week ago at 68%, but down versus 74% in 2012.

French spring barley is only 23% headed compared with 87% a year ago. They said that 72% of the crop was rated as good/excellent, down one point from last week and compared with 88% a year ago. French winter barley is 67% good/excellent, the same as last week and last year.

13/06/13 -- EU grains closed mixed after attempting a tiny recovery following yesterday's declines and the recent rout, although they did get dragged down heading into the close as US grains turned sharply lower for a second day.

As of last night front month Jul 13 London wheat was down GBP16.00/tonne, or 8.8%, for month of June so far. Nov 13 London wheat has fallen GBP9.50/tonne, or 5.3%, and Nov 13 Paris wheat is down EUR8.50/tonne, or 4.1%, in the same period.

Jul 13 London wheat finished Thursday unchanged at GBP166.50/tonne and Nov 13 ended GBP0.50/tonne easier at GBP168.50/tonne. Nov 13 Paris wheat settled up EUR0.25/tonne at EUR197.75/tonne. The two new crop November months are currently running at around parity.

The vibe at day one of Cereals 2013 was certainly a bit more optimistic for UK production prospects this year than it would have been if the event had been held a couple of months ago. ODA said that the UK wheat crop might come in around 11.5 MMT this year, the Anderson's Centre were very much in the same ballpark at 11.4-11.5 MMT, whilst the HGCA's Jack Watts was a bit more hopeful at 12.0 MMT. A crop of 11.5 MMT would be down 13.5% on last year, output of 12.0 MMT would be a 9.8% drop.

As we have already discovered though, there's plenty of opportunity for the UK to import wheat if the price is right. UK imports might finish up around 3 MMT this year, so there's no reason to think that they couldn't be at least that high again in 2013/14. The pound is doing it's best to help at nearly 1.57 against the dollar.

Talking of imports, the weekly export line-up out of the leading French grain hub of Rouen for the week through to Wednesday showed another 8,800 MT of French soft wheat heading for the UK.

SovEcon raised their estimate for the Russian wheat crop this year from 50 MMT to 52 MMT, up 38% on last year, although still 2 MMT lower than the USDA's revised forecast of yesterday. The respected Russian analysis group now forecast their wheat exports at 14-15 MMT in 2013/14 versus the USDA's 17 MMT, saying that some of this surplus production will be needed to replenish depleted government intervention stocks.

MDA CropCast estimated the Russian wheat crop very similar to SovEcon at 51.8 MMT today. They cut 2.1 MMT off their global wheat production estimate to 678 MMT, some 18 MMT lower than the USDA. They also forecast the EU barley crop at 54.7 MMT, versus 55.6 MMT from the USDA and 52.7 MMT in 2012. They have the EU rapeseed crop down 390 TMT on last week to 19.06 MMT, versus 19.7 MMT from the USDA and 18.51 MMT last year.

"Rains remained active across southern Germany, Poland, and Czech-Slovak Republics this past week, and also increased across southwestern France, Romania, and Bulgaria. The rains in Germany, Poland, and Czech-Slovak Republics maintained wetness and also increased flooding problems," they said.

Oil World side with the USDA on EU rapeseed production, pegging the crop at 19.72 MMT. They forecast output in Germany rising 14% to 5.5 MMT, although the French crop is seen falling more than 10% to 4.9 MMT and the UK crop dipping 26% lower at 1.9 MMT.

On a global level, Oil World estimate this year's rapeseed crop at 63.48 MMT versus 62.6 MMT in 2012. The Canadian crop is forecast up 4.3% to 14.5 MMT, with output in Ukraine rising almost 54% to 2.0 MMT - much of that will be destined for Europe. They see production in Australia falling nearly 19% to 3.2 MMT, the same as ABARES said yesterday, on reduced plantings.

12/06/13 - EU grains closed with steep looses in what has been a bit of a bloodbath past seven days. Jul 13 London wheat closed GBP3.75/tonne lower at GBP166.50/tonne and with Nov GBP3.25/tonne lower at GBP169.00/tonne, that was the best new crop performance - other months were down GBP5.00/tonne. Nov 13 Paris wheat slid comfortably below the EUR200.00/tonne mark, down EUR4.25/tonne at EUR197.50/tonne.

This was the lowest close for a front month on London wheat in 15-months and a first sub EUR200/tonne close for a front month in Paris since a brief 3-day flirtation in May 2012.

It's all gone horribly wrong for wheat, and if you need or want a knight in shining armour to come to your rescue and save the day, then the USDA wouldn't normally be top of your list. And so it proved once again today, but more of them in a minute.

The trade is getting nervous that the impending Black Sea harvest means that Europe, America and just about everywhere else can shut the export order book until Christmas at least.

Tunisia bought 75 TMT of soft milling wheat of optional origin, thought likely to be from the Black Sea for July/August shipment. Bangladesh bought 50 TMT of Indian wheat.

The NFU said that the UK wheat harvested area could fall 29% this year. Various analysts estimate the UK wheat crop at around 11.0-12.0 MMT versus 13.3 MMT in 2012 and the 5-year average of 14.9 MMT.

Things are a bit better on the continent though. The German Farmers' Co-op pegged the 2013 wheat crop at 24.01 MMT versus a previous estimate of 23.76 MMT and the 2012 crop of 22.38 MMT. Toepfer go 23.35 MMT.

ODA yesterday estimated the French wheat crop at 36.0 MMT versus 35.6 MMT a year ago. They have the Polish crop at 8.7 MMT versus 8.6 MMT a year ago.

Whist these are all modest improvements on last season, apart from here in the UK, they are hardly dramatic increases and all mostly lower than the USDA's May forecasts of 38.2 MMT in France, 23.8 MMT in Germany and 9.4 MMT in Poland.

Australia's ABARES did however up their forecast for wheat production there to 25.4 MMT versus a previous estimate of 24.9 MMT and the 2012/13 crop of 22.1 MMT.

The USDA threw a late spanner in the works by insisting that the US corn planted area would be the same as the 97.3 million acres that they forecast last month, contrary to expectation of a cut of around 2-3 million. Yield expectations were trimmed slightly, but final production was still estimated at over 14 billion bushels, far more than trade expectations. Corn slumped and wheat went with it in late trade, dragging European grains lower with it.

11/06/13 -- EU grains slumped to fresh lows pressured by the impending Black Sea harvest which is now just days away. Paris wheat at least managed to close with a few modest gains at the finish, but it was a different story for London wheat. Ukraine could be harvesting in the drier areas in the south and east within 7-10 days, 2-3 weeks earlier than normal, it is thought.

Jul 13 London wheat finished the day GBP1.25/tonne lower at GBP170.25/tonne, and with Nov 13 ending GBP0.25/tonne down at GBP172.75/tonne. Nov 13 Paris wheat settled EUR0.25/tonne easier at EUR201.75/tonne. Jul 13 London wheat traded below GBP170.00/tonne at one point - a near 15 month low for a front month.

The Ukraine Ministry estimate the wheat crop there at 20 MMT, up 27% on last year. Current new crop offers FOB the Black Sea are said to be around USD250/tonne for Ukraine feed wheat (close to GBP160/tonne) and USD255/tonne for milling wheat (circa GBP164/tonne). Those levels are well under European or US offers, with the latter quoted at around USD282/tonne FOB. Russian new crop milling wheat is also quoted at significantly cheaper prices than those in the West.

The Russian Ministry said that spring grain plantings are just about wrapped up at 99.8% complete on 30.2 million hectares. The corn planted area has exceeded expectations at 2.3 million ha, they added. That's a bit more than the USDA's 2.15 million ha prediction. The Ministry plan to buy around 5 MMT of mostly wheat to replenish their depleted intervention stocks in 2013/14, but may not begin buying until October or November they said, presumably hoping for a bit of harvest pressure to cause prices to drop a bit further yet.

The Russians sold 77,479 MT of intervention grains in a tender offering of 89,899 MT yesterday. That takes the total volume sold so far since sales began to just over 3.5 MMT.

Tunisia issued a tender for 75 TMT of soft milling wheat for July/August shipment. They bought a similar volume of optional origin feed barley yesterday. Qatar bought 40 TMT of optional origin, but thought to be Black Sea wheat, yesterday.

Japan said that they were extending their current "ban" on importing US wheat to include everything but SRW wheat, and only then if that's shipped from the Gulf and not the Pacific North West, following the recent discovery of GMO wheat growing in Oregon. Taiwan says US wheat imports are "under review" and South Korea has already temporarily suspended them pending the outcome of an investigation into how the wheat was found to be growing in the US 8 years after trials on the strain were suspended.

Informa estimated the 2013/14 world rapeseed crop at a record 65.2 MMT, up 4.5% on last year and almost 3 MMT more than the USDA forecast. They have production in the EU at 20 MMT, the same as the USDA and up 4.7% on last year. The Canadian crop is seen up 15% on last year to 15.3 MMT, which is 0.8 MMT higher than the USDA predict.

The French Farm Ministry pegged the 2013 winter rapeseed crop at 4.5 MMT, down 17% on last year. The crop there has been afflicted by similar problems to that in the UK.

All eyes are now on the USDA for tomorrow's June World Supply and Demand numbers. No huge changes are expected for wheat. The trade is expecting not much alteration to 2012/13 global wheat ending stocks, pegged at just over 180 MMT last month. The 2013/14 carryout is seen down a little from 186.4 MMT in May to around 185.1 MMT this time round.

10/06/13 -- EU grains slumped lower across the board on follow through selling from last week and competition from the Black Sea heats up. US grains offered no support on profit-taking and book-squaring ahead of tonight's planting progress and crop condition report, and Wednesday's global supply and demand numbers from the USDA.

Jul 13 London wheat finishing the day GBP2.50tonne easier at GBP171.50/tonne and Nov 13 ending GBP2.75/tonne weaker at GBP172.50/tonne. Nov 13 Paris wheat settled EUR2.25/tonne down at EUR201.50/tonne. New crop Paris milling wheat is the equivalent of around GBP1.00/tonne cheaper than London feed wheat based on tonight's close.

The Black Sea harvest gets closer every day, the Ukraine Ministry said on Friday that they expect the 2013 campaign to be underway within 10-15 days. They estimate this year's grain crop at 53-54 MMT, up 15-17% on last year.

The Russian harvest will also begin within weeks, and both countries will be eager to make up for lost time and hit the export ground running. Russia has only exported 619 TMT of wheat in the first four months of 2013 versus 4.5 MMT in the same period in 2012.

Iraq announced today that it had bought 250 TMT of new crop Russian wheat in a recent tender at prices said to be around USD50/tonne cheaper than the US equivalent. They immediately issued a fresh 50,000 MT tender, although they usually buy more, which closes June 23rd. Russia’s Ag Ministry estimate the 2013/14 grain crop at 95.0 MMT, up almost 33% on last season's 77.2 MMT.

North Africa's big wheat homes look likely to be much smaller net purchasers this year. The Moroccan Ag Ministry confirmed that they are expecting a record grain crop of 9.7 MMT this year, up 90% versus 2012, and that imports in 2013/14 will halve. Algeria are also said to be in for a bumper harvest this year, although Tunisia's grain crop is expected to fall from 2.2 MMT in 2012/13 to around 1.4-1.5 MMT, necessitating increased imports. Egypt remain absent from the market.

Iran bought 60,000 MT of feed wheat overnight from the Black Sea.

French soft wheat exports in April were up 29% on year ago levels at 1.53 MMT, with barley shipments rising 53% to 531 TMT and corn exports up 6% to 566 TMT Cumulative Jul/Apr soft wheat exports are now 14.64 MMT versus a full season estimate of 17.05 MMT from FranceAgriMer.

The latter tweaked their planted area estimates for the 2013 harvest today, estimating the soft wheat area up 2.9% on last year to 5.0 million hectares, with corn plantings up 2.4% to 1.71 million ha and the nation's barley area down 5.4% to 1.59 million ha. A week of warm and dry weather should see crop conditions improve when FranceAgriMer release their next set of ratings at the end of the week.

Spanish Farmers' Association Asaja said that wet and cooler than normal weather earlier in the year will cut their grain production levels below those forecast by the Ministry and USDA. They estimate the all wheat crop there at 5.8 MMT versus the Ministry's 6.6 MMT and the USDA's 7.1 MMT. They peg the 2013/14 Spanish barley crop at 6.8 MMT, compared with 7.0 MMT from the government and 8.4 MMT from the USDA.

Oil World trimmed their 2013/14 global rapeseed production estimate slightly, although at 63.5 MMT that's still a record crop. Production in the EU is forecast up from 19.0 MMT in 2012/13 to 19.7 MMT in 2013/14, whilst Canadian output will rise from 13.9 MMT to 14.5 MMT, they said. Canadian canola futures slumped 4% last week as the outlook for bumper production in 2013/14 improved. Prices in Paris also declined by more than EUR10/tonne last week.

07/06/13 - EU grains closed lower with Jul 13 London wheat down GBP2.50/tonne at GBP174.00/tonne and Nov 13 down GBP0.35/tonne at GBP175.25/tonne. Paris wheat closed with front month Nov 13 EUR0.50/tonne easier at EUR203.75/tonne.

For the week that pegs Jul 13 London wheat down GBP8.50/tonne, with Nov GBP3.25/tonne lower and Nov 13 Paris wheat slipping EUR2.25/tonne.

This was the lowest close for a front month on London wheat for almost a year. The pound rising to a 4-month high versus the US dollar didn't help.

US wheat meanwhile seems to be attempting to paddle it's own canoe, concentrating on the problems there with both winter and spring wheat. Plantings of the latter in North Dakota are the slowest since at least 1981, Bloomberg reported yesterday. Across the border things are much better though, with Saskatchewan spring wheat 83% sown, in line with 82% normally and up 26 points from a week previously. Elsewhere there is also reason for optimism regarding prospects for 2013/14.

Black Sea spring grain plantings have also caught up. Ukraine is finished, Kazakhstan is all but done at 99.8% complete and Russian growers have now sown 29.6 million hectares, or 97.6% of the intended area (including a record corn area).

Winter wheat planting in Argentina is underway at 19.4% complete, up from 9.0% a week ago and above the 11.1% planted this time last year. Conditions are said to be near ideal. The Ministry say that they expect to see plantings rise from 3.16 million hectares last year to 4.0 million in 2013/14, an increase of 26.6%. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange are not far behind predicting an area of 3.9 million ha.

Brazil's CONAB forecast a 2013/14 wheat crop of 5.56 MMT, up from the 5.4 MMT that they estimated previously and 27% more than last year's output of 4.37 MMT.

Informa estimated the world wheat crop at a record 703.5 MMT, broadly similar to yesterday's 702 MMT from the FAO/AMIS and the USDA's 701 MMT. They have the Russian crop at 52 MMT, up 38%, with Ukraine producing 21.4 MMT, up 35%, and Europe seeing production of 138.8 MMT, up 5% on last year.

Good winter rains will boost Morocco's grain crop to 9.7 MMT this year, say the Ministry, an increase of 90% on last year's drought damaged crop. Soft wheat output will rise by a similar percentage to 5.2 MMT, they added. The USDA has them down to import 39% less wheat in 2013/14.

Closer to home, the German Farmers Association (DBV) said that the area of farmland affected by the recent floods there is at least 150,000 hectares, and possibly as much as 250,000 ha. To put that into perspective the German grain area for the 2013 harvest is seen at 6.5 million ha, along with a further 1.4 million going into rapeseed. That puts the cropping area flooded at a maximum of 3% even if we go with the higher estimate and assume that all the land involved was under cultivation with grains/rapeseed and not simply pasture, fruit/vegetables etc.

The HGCA said that we used 505 TMT of wheat for flour, starch and/or bioethanol production in April, of which 62.5% was home grown - the lowest proportion in a single month since 1993/94. Imported wheat usage in the Jul/Apr period was 1.36 MMT, almost double that of a year previously. Apr 1 home grown wheat stocks were down 15% year-on-year, imported stocks were up 62%.

The Farmers Guardian carried a report concerning the ongoing production problems at Vivergo, suggesting that the plant's wheat usage this season might be less than 100 TMT, less than a tenth of their anticipated annual requirement when fully operational.

FranceAgriMer released their weekly planting progress and crop condition report today. Crop development is still lagging for the week through to Monday. They say that 56% of the winter wheat crop is heading, up from 35% last week but well behind 97% this time last year. Winter barley is now 100% headed, spring barley is only 6% versus 52% this week in 2012.

French wheat crop ratings held steady for wheat at 68% good/excellent, and likewise for winter barley at 67%. Spring barley in the top two categories slipped to 73% from 78% a week ago. Corn conditions good/excellent also fell from 67% last week to 62% this time round. Corn plantings didn't move from last week at 89% complete, ten points behind last year.

They've had a better week weather-wise this week, so things may have improved in next week's report.

07/06/13 - EU grains closed lower with Jul 13 London wheat down GBP2.50/tonne at GBP174.00/tonne and Nov 13 down GBP0.35/tonne at GBP175.25/tonne. Paris wheat closed with front month Nov 13 EUR0.50/tonne easier at EUR203.75/tonne.

For the week that pegs Jul 13 London wheat down GBP8.50/tonne, with Nov GBP3.25/tonne lower and Nov 13 Paris wheat slipping EUR2.25/tonne.

This was the lowest close for a front month on London wheat for almost a year. The pound rising to a 4-month high versus the US dollar didn't help.

US wheat meanwhile seems to be attempting to paddle it's own canoe, concentrating on back of the problems there with both winter and spring wheat. Plantings of the latter in North Dakota are the slowest since at least 1981, Bloomberg reported yesterday. Across the border things are much better though, with Saskatchewan spring wheat 83% sown, in line with 82% normally and up 26 points from a week previously. Elsewhere there is also reason for optimism regarding prospects for 2013/14.