29/09/11 -- EU grains finished mostly lower again with Nov London wheat down GBP0.85/tonne to GBP156.40/tonne and Nov Paris wheat falling EUR0.25/tonne at EUR190.75/tonne.

The German parliament approved the expansion of the EU bailout fund by a large majority, the bill needs ratifying by the upper house tomorrow. As one problem gets resolved another one inconveniently pops up. A letter from the ECB sent to Italian PM Berlusconi in August calling for "pressing action" to introduce swingeing austerity measures by the end of the month, ie tomorrow, has been leaked to the press there.

A EUR6.9 billion auction of ten year Italian bonds today saw yields increase from 5.22% last month to a pretty unsustainable 5.86% this time round.

Egypt bought 120,000 MT each of Russian and Kazakh wheat in today's tender. The latter has announced that it aims to export 1 MMT of grains per month for the remainder of the 2011/12 season.

The HGCA say that the UK wheat harvest is 98% complete and that yields have averaged 7.5-7.7 MT/ha, implying a crop of 15.0-15.4 MMT off a planted area of 2 million hectares, up 0.2-0.6 MMT on last year.

Winter barley has averaged 6.1-6.2 MT/ha and spring barley 5.3 MT/ha, they say. That implies a UK barley crop of around 5.2 MMT this year, similar to last season.

With the OSR harvest averaging a hefty 3.7-3.8 MT/ha UK farmers may have brought in a crop as high as 2.7 MMT using Coceral's planted area estimate of 720,000 ha, potentially beating last season's record crop by almost half a million tonnes.

All three totals beat the current USDA estimates which are 14.8 MMT, 5.0 MMT and 2.4 MMT respectively.

Looking ahead to next year an estimated 30-40% of winter wheat has been drilled and 20-25% of winter barley, the HGCA add.

29/09/11 -- EU grains finished mostly lower again with Nov London wheat down GBP0.85/tonne to GBP156.40/tonne and Nov Paris wheat falling EUR0.25/tonne at EUR190.75/tonne.

The German parliament approved the expansion of the EU bailout fund by a large majority, the bill needs ratifying by the upper house tomorrow. As one problem gets resolved another one inconveniently pops up. A letter from the ECB sent to Italian PM Berlusconi in August calling for "pressing action" to introduce swingeing austerity measures by the end of the month, ie tomorrow, has been leaked to the press there.

A EUR6.9 billion auction of ten year Italian bonds today saw yields increase from 5.22% last month to a pretty unsustainable 5.86% this time round.

Egypt bought 120,000 MT each of Russian and Kazakh wheat in today's tender. The latter has announced that it aims to export 1 MMT of grains per month for the remainder of the 2011/12 season.

The HGCA say that the UK wheat harvest is 98% complete and that yields have averaged 7.5-7.7 MT/ha, implying a crop of 15.0-15.4 MMT off a planted area of 2 million hectares, up 0.2-0.6 MMT on last year.

Winter barley has averaged 6.1-6.2 MT/ha and spring barley 5.3 MT/ha, they say. That implies a UK barley crop of around 5.2 MMT this year, similar to last season.

With the OSR harvest averaging a hefty 3.7-3.8 MT/ha UK farmers may have brought in a crop as high as 2.7 MMT using Coceral's planted area estimate of 720,000 ha, potentially beating last season's record crop by almost half a million tonnes.

All three totals beat the current USDA estimates which are 15.0 MMT, 5.0 MMT and 2.4 MMT respectively.

Looking ahead to next year an estimated 30-40% of winter wheat has been drilled and 20-25% of winter barley, the HGCA add.

28/09/11 -- EU grains ended two day's of modest gains with Nov London wheat closing down GBP1.75/tonne at GBP157.25/tonne and Nov Paris wheat falling EUR3.50/tonne to EUR191.00/tonne.

Newly emerged optimism that eurozone leaders, the IMF and anybody else that fancies joining in will extract the digit and finally do something proactive to sort out the debt crisis over the past couple of days is already waning.

News that Russia is on target to export a record 3.7 MMT of grains in September is a reminder of what Europe and America need to do to keep up.

Harvesting in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan is progressing well, with all three in line for a very substantial rebound in production from last season. Exports are also seen significantly higher too.

The world wheat area for the 2012 harvest could rise almost 4 million hectares, according to the IGC. The European wheat area is seen broadly unchanged, although sowings may increase in Germany as rains hampered rapeseed plantings during August and early September, they added.

Meanwhile Informa Economics forecast US all wheat plantings at 56.6 million acres, up 2.2 million from the current season.

Tunisia bought 125,000 MT of optional origin soft milling/durum wheat.

28/09/11 -- EU grains ended two day's of modest gains with Nov London wheat closing down GBP1.75/onne at GBP157.25/tonne and Nov Paris wheat falling EUR3.50/tonne to EUR191.00/tonne.

Optimism that eurozone leaders, the IMF and anybody else that fancies joining in will extract the digit and finally do something proactive to sort out the debt crisis over the past coiple of days is already waning.

News that Russia is on target to export a record 3.7 MMT of grains in September is a reminder of what Europe and America need to do to keep up

Harvesting in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan is progressing well, with all three in line for a very substantial rebound in production from last season.

The world wheat area for the 2012 harvest could rise almost 4 million hectares, according to the IGC. The European wheat area is seen broadly unchanged, although sowings may increase in Germany as rains hampered rapeseed plantings during August and early September, they added.

Meanwhile Informa Economics forecast US all wheat plantings at 56.6 million acres, up 2.2 million from the current season.

27/09/11 -- EU grains added to yesterday's modest gains with Nov London wheat closing up GBP2.00/tonne at GBP159.00/tonne and Nov Paris wheat rising EUR2.25/tonne to EUR194.50/tonne.

Global stocks rose on optimism that eurozone leaders, the IMF and anybody else that fancies joining in will extract the digit and finally do something proactive to sort out the debt crisis.

London's FTSE100 was up 4% at the close of play, with the Paris and German stock markets up by more than 5%. WTI crude oil was almost four dollars firmer by the time that Liffe/Euronext closed, adding to the friendly tone.

When you look at it like that increases in wheat of only around two pounds/euros were actually pretty disappointing.

Defra made a few tweaks to 2010/11 wheat ending stocks by virtue of higher estimates for carryout from 2008/09 and 2009/10, increasing wheat availability by 117,000 MT to 17.9 MMT. Slightly lower usage from the feed sector also reduces domestic consumption in 2010/11.

Harvesting in Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan is progressing well, with all three in line for a very substantial rebound in production from last season.

The world wheat area for the 2012 harvest could rise almost 4 million hectares, according to the IGC. The European wheat area is seen broadly unchanged, although sowings may increase in Germany as rains hampered rapeseed plantings during August and early September, they added.

Meanwhile Informa Economics forecast US all wheat plantings at 56.6 million acres, up 2.2 million from the current season.

26/09/11 -- EU grains finished mostly a tad higher with Nov London wheat up GBP0.50/tonne to GBP157.00/tonne and Nov Paris wheat climbing EUR0.75/tonne to EUR192.75/tonne.

This was a very modest recovery attempt after a couple of weeks of significant losses. US grains quickly turned stronger than expected in afternoon trade, providing the catalyst for EU futures to also move higher.

There's a degree of hope around that some sort of concerted effort is on the cards to revive the fortunes of Greece and European banks this week. That may put a halt to the recent risk aversion plunge that's seen London wheat fall GBP17.75/tonne since the turn of the month.

US weather conditions remain too dry in the southern Plains to speed up winter wheat plantings. Meanwhile the spring wheat harvest is seen falling when that finally wraps up shortly.

Media chatter also suggests that dryness in the Ukraine, Argentina and Australia is against wheat planting in the case of the former and wheat development in the case of the latter two.

Russia has harvested 84.7 MMT of grains so far off 83% of the planted area, already up 39% on last year's final total and suggesting that official estimates of a final crop of 90 MMT may be a bit on the low side.

23/09/11 -- EU grains finished mostly lower again with Nov London wheat was down GBP0.05/tonne to GBP156.50/tonne and Nov Paris wheat ending EUR.50/tonne down at EUR191.50/tonne.

It was a topsy-turvy sort of a day that saw wheat try hard to put in some sort of consolidation phase after a week of fairly hefty losses. Whilst the market traded both sides ultimately it was the downside that won again with Nov London wheat finally finishing with losses of GBP5.25/tonne on the week and GBP18.25/tonne on the month so far.

Make no bones about it, risk aversion is what is behind the declines that we've seen this week and this month so far. If you're a grower that may seem terribly unlucky, however it should be remembered that risk appetite is what got us up above GBP200.00/tonne in the first place.

Crude oil has fallen 30% from the 2011 highs set at the end of April, if London wheat was down by a similar amount then today's price would be GBP143.50/tonne and Paris wheat EUR171.00/tonne. On that basis you could almost argue that wheat prices have got off quite lightly across the summer relative to other commodities.

Russia now plans to export 23 MMT of grains in 2011/12, according to their First Deputy Prime Minister, the highest estimate of the season so far. Production, and thus export potential, out of Kazakhstan and Ukraine is also on the rise.

The IGC yesterday upped their 2011/12 world wheat production estimate by 2 MMT, raising carryover stocks by a similar amount. For corn they reduced world output by 4 MMT, but saw usage falling 5 MMT giving us a 1 MMT increase in ending stocks.

An unexpected "Indian Summer" could be on the way for Europe. WxRisk say that a huge high pressure dome is going to form over the heart of Western Europe which will keep all of Spain, France, United Kingdom, Germany, Poland, Austria, Italy and Hungary warm and dry. Temperatures could just reach into the 80s for several days over many areas from next week into early October.