Analysts doubt Argentina corn amid wet conditions

Soycomplex

Beans closed around 10-13 cents higher, with meal up around USD5-7 and oil generally 7-10 points higher.

Funds were said to have been net buyers of around 6,000 soybean contracts on the day. The USDA reported the US soybean harvest at 87% complete. There are concerns that some crops may have been damaged/lost to the remains of Hurricane Sandy. The Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s 2012/13 soybean area at 19.5 million hectares, up 3.7% from a year ago. FCStone are out tomorrow with their latest US crop production estimates. Last month they gave us a bean yield of 36.7 bu/acre and a crop of 2.739 billion bushels.

Corn

Corn closed around 10-15 cents firmer. The USDA reported the US corn harvest at 91% complete.

The rain and snow associated with Hurricane Sandy will make getting the last 9% in a challenge. Fund buying was estimated at 10,000 contracts on the day. The Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s 2012/13 corn area at 4.0 million hectares, unchanged from their previous estimate, but 0.4 million down on a year ago. Many analysts are already questioning Argentina's farmers ability to get 4 million hectares planted under the current very wet conditions. FCStone are out with their latest US numbers tomorrow, last month's corn figures were a yield of 121.4 bu/acre and a crop 10.607 billion bushels. Thursday's normal weekly export sales report is delayed until Friday.

Wheat

Chicago wheat ended 5-8 cents higher, with Kansas up 2-5 cents and Minneapolis 5-7 cents firmer.

The Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s 2012/13 wheat output at 10.0 MMT versus 13.0 MMT a year ago and the USDA's current 11.5 MMT forecast. Tunisia bought 125 TMT of optional origin wheat for Dec/Jan shipment. Egypt bought 300 TMT of Russian, French and Romanian wheat for last half December shipment. The market will at least be cheered by the news that US wheat was actually the cheapest on offer on a FOB basis and only missed out due to more expensive freight. China sold around half of the 769,044 MT of wheat offered at a government auction. The USDA said that 88% of the US winter wheat crop is now planted and 63% of that is emerged. The first crop ratings of the season went 40% good/excellent and 45% fair.