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14 December 2012 10:00:23 |

Buenos Aires cuts forecast for Argentine wheat production

Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.75 1/2, up 2 cents; Mar 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.72 1/2, up 2 cents; Dec 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD460.50, up USD1.00; Dec 12 Soybean Oil closed at 48.62, down 56 points.
Weekly export sales for soybeans in excess of 1.3 MMT comfortably beat trade expectations of 550-900 TMT. Once again weekly shipments were also strong, coming in above the 1 MMT mark for the 11th week in a row, matching a record of unbroken 1 MMT plus per week of exports on records stretching back to 1990. Total net soybean commitments are now in excess of 80% of the USDA's target for the full season. The November NOPA domestic soybean crush report will be released tomorrow with the average trade guess coming in at 157.5 million bushels.
Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.12 1/4, down 8 3/4 cents; Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.20 1/4, down 5 1/4 cents.
Weekly export sales of 258,900 MT were an improvement on last week's paltry effort and within trade expectations, but still fell well short of the level required to hit the USDA's full season target. Net total corn commitments at this stage are only 43% of the USDA target for 2012/13. Corn planting in Argentina is said to be 61% done, with a few more dry days on the cards before showers return on Sunday. MDA CropCast raised their 2012 Chinese corn production estimate to 202.8 MMT, even so that's still considerably less than the USDA's 208.0 MMT forecast released on Tuesday. They estimate Brazilian output at 70.7 MMT and Argentine production at 25.2 MMT, both unchanged from a week ago.
Dec 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD7.93, down 1 3/4 cents; Dec 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.57 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents; Dec 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.86 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents.
Weekly export sales for wheat were decent at 518,600 MT, and for once beat the weekly level required to hit the USDA's target for 2012/13. That was helped by sales of 183,000 MT to Egypt, most of which was already known about last week. Japan bought 134,157 MT of mostly US wheat in its regular weekly tender. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange cut its forecast for Argentine wheat production by 320 TMT to 9.8 MMT, well below the USDA's 11.5 MMT estimated on Tuesday. The Rosario Exchange are said to be about to issue a similar sub-10 MMT number on Friday. Harvesting is 42% complete, according to the BAGE.


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