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4 January 2013 10:20:00|

Chicago Grain Market Report - 4th January 2013


Soycomplex
Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.03, down 2 1/2 cents; Mar 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.86 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents; Jan 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD405.60, down USD1.50; Jan 13 Soybean Oil closed at 50.21, down 31 points.
Beans hit a six week low on news that China had cancelled a further 315 TMT of US soybean purchases, although they finished well off the session lows. The US attaché to Brazil pegged the soybean crop there at 83 MMT, which is 2 MMT more than the USDA currently predict. They also placed exports at 39 MMT which is 1.6 MMT more than the USDA. The latter will issue revised estimates next Friday. Before that CONAB will issue their revised January forecasts for Brazilian crop production, they had soybean output at 82.6 MMT and exports at 36.4 MMT last month. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are 250-450 TMT.
Corn
Mar 13 Corn closed at USD6.89 1/4, down 1 1/2 cents; May 13 Corn closed at USD6.91, down 2 1/2 cents.
Funds were said to have been net sellers of around 3,000 corn contracts on the day. Ukraine has slipped into full-on corn export mode. Ministry data shows that they exported 2.46 MMT of grains in December, of which 2 MMT was corn. Year-to-date shipments are 14.5 MMT, of which 6.36 MMT is corn. Full season grain exports are forecast at 23 MMT, the vast majority of the remaining 8.5 MMT of that will also be corn. The reinstatement of the dollar a gallon tax break for US biodiesel producers should once again support the US ethanol industry. Argentine corn planting is said to be 82% complete, in line with last year's progress despite the wet weather. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for corn are 200-350 TMT.
Wheat
Mar 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD7.55 1/2, up 1/4 cent; Mar 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.11 1/4, up 1/4 cent; Mar 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.46 1/2, up 5 cents.
The Argentine wheat crop is said to be past three quarters harvested versus 93% last year at this time. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange have the crop at 9.8 MMT versus the USDA's 11.5 MMT. The Australian wheat harvest is nearing completion, just in time to avoid what Bloomberg are calling the most wide-ranging drought in more than a decade. Final production numbers there are yet to be confirmed. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for wheat are 350-550 TMT. Last week's sales were a near two year high in excess of 1 MMT, but that is unlikely to be repeated in a holiday week. It may take a few weeks more to confirm if global wheat demand really has switched to America.

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