23 May 2015 | Online since 2003



Chicago market report - 7th August 2012


Soycomplex: Aug 12 Soybeans closed at USD16.07 1/2, down 48 3/4 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD15.84 1/4, down 44 1/2 cents; Aug 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD518.20, down USD13.30; Aug 12 Soybean Oil closed at 51.48, down 56 points. Better than expected weekend rains and calls for a cooler and wetter outlook for the next couple of weeks got beans on the defensive, fostering ideas that maybe the US crop could see something of an eleventh hour rescue. The USDA reported the sale of 106 TMT of new crop soybeans to China.

Safras e Mercado's weekly report says that Brazilian farmers have sold 95% of their 2011/12 soybean crop versus 73% a year ago and 79% on average at this time. They've already reportedly sold 39% of their 2012/13 soybean crop, planting of which is still more than a month away, versus 14% a year ago and 11% on average. Celeres estimate Brazil's 2012/13 soybean crop at a record 78.1 MMT, up 17.8% from 2011/12, with plantings seen at a record 27 million hectares, up 8.1% from a year ago. The USDA reported good/excellent soybeans at 29%, unchanged from last week, although poor/very poor increased two points to 39%. They said that 71% of the crop is setting pods versus the 5 year average of 53%.

Corn: Sep 12 Corn closed at USD8.03, down 7 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD8.05, down 2 1/2 cents. Weekend rains, and a wetter outlook, is less likely to be of benefit to corn than soybeans at this stage. Funds were estimated to have been net sellers of around 4,000 corn contracts on the day, enough for a modestly lower close. Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s 2011/12 corn crop at 72.4 MMT versus the USDA's 70.0 MMT. They also placed Brazil’s 2011/12 corn exports at 15.5 MMT, well above the USDA's forecast 11.0 MMT. The USDA crop condition report cut good/excellent ratings by one point to 23%, with very poor raised two points to 25%.

That now leaves exactly half of the crop rated as poor/very poor. High temperatures and early planting have the crop very forward, at 26% dented already compared to the 5 year average of only 7%. Doane estimated the 2012 US corn crop at 10.792 billion bushels and pegged yields at 123.1 bpa. The USDA will released their own updated estimates on Friday. Ethanol plants continue to voluntarily slow or cease production as their profit margins narrow or disappear altogether.

Wheat: Sep 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.93 1/4, up 2 cents; Sep 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.95, down 1 cent; Sep 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.44 1/2, unchanged. SovEcon estimated Russia’s 2012 grain crop at 72.0-75.0 MMT versus their previous estimate of 78.5-81.5 MMT and 94.0 MMT last year. Of that they say that Russia’s 2012 wheat crop will be 40.5-43.0 MMT versus their previous estimate of 46.5 MMT and 56.2 MMT last year.

The USDA's current estimate is 49.0 MMT. If those figures are correct than some form of export curb looks a real possibility once again. Russia’s Ag Ministry say that the grain crop this year will total 75-80 MMT, with the wheat crop at 45.0 MMT. Saudi Arabia bought 290 TMT of hard wheat from the US, EU, Australia, and South America for Oct/Nov shipment over the weekend.

There are some reports that Texas feed lots are looking at buying wheat from Canada. The USDA reported the winter wheat harvest at 88% complete, only one point ahead of normal. By complete contrast spring wheat harvesting has raced ahead to 47% done versus just 12% normally at this juncture. Good/excellent spring wheat conditions were unchanged at 63%.

Download




Comments


No comments posted yet. Be the first to post a comment

To post comment without approval login or register

Display name

Please enter your name

Email (optional)
Comment

Please enter your comment

Post Comment

Your comment submitted successfully.Please wait for admin approval.

Some error on your process.Please try one more time.



Jobs


6 May 2015
SALES ASSESSOR - Agriculture (0.6)
We are looking for someone to work with employers and learners to develop the Agriculture provision within apprenticeship pro...

18 May 2015
Resourcer
If successful you will also be responsible for your own admin, and arranging multiple dairies for interviews and assessment c...

11 May 2015
Corporate Actions Administrator
To diarise all future actions and required decisions on Microsoft Outlook Dairy, ensuring these are acted on when appropriate...

20 May 2015
Performance Analyst (m/f)
Basic knowledge of wind farm operations and wind farm SCADA systems. Innovation and development of analytical methods for mea...

13 May 2015
Service Engineer (PCV/PSV)
The successful Service Engineer will join a truly global engineering firm involved in a variety of industries including autom...



Top stories you may have missed
15 May 2015 | Arable

Scotland’s Rural Affairs Secretary Richard Lochhead is calling on the Europ...


15 May 2015 | Finance

As the country settles down following the turmoil of the general election, ...


14 May 2015 | Animal Health

New research from the Universities of Bristol and Cambridge has found that ...


13 May 2015 | Animal Health

A new publication to help farmers prevent sheep lameness and offer advice o...


12 May 2015 | Agri Safety

The Farmers’ Union of Wales is putting the spotlight on Liver fluke at next...


5 May 2015 | News

The UK is now third in the global rankings for utility-scale solar energy a...


29 April 2015 | Agri Safety

A recent Rural Watch demonstration and information event gave Farmers’ Unio...


24 April 2015 | Meat Processing

Retailers should confirm their commitments to sourcing UK lamb this season,...


15 April 2015 | Meat Processing

A leading retailer has apologised after selling imported lamb in a Borders ...


9 April 2015 | Finance

The time has come for landlords to expect to see reductions in farm rents, ...