27 January 2015 | Online since 2003



27 September 2012|Arable,Cereal,Crops,News,Pigs

China pork demand could see corn imports rocket


China is emerging as a major pork player on the world’s stage. This is not only due to its already leading position in pork production, but is also increasingly due to its rising influence on global pork markets as fluctuating imports affect global supply and demand balances as well as prices.

If current trends in China’s pork production and industrialisation continue, corn imports could approach 20 million tonnes per year within a five-year time frame, according to a new study from Rabobank Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory.

This is one of the changes in the landscape of the pork industry that will have major reverberations on world markets.



Value growth will be rapid due to the increasing demand for value-added products, convenience and food safety. In response to market dynamics, China’s pork supply chain is undergoing industrialisation.

A number of factors are driving the development of the pork market. At the downstream end of the pork supply chain, the consumer market is driving the direction of industry development. China’s diet structure has changed greatly over the past few decades as the population is consuming more meat and less grain than in previous years. However, pork’s share of overall meat consumption has decreased sharply while other meats have gained importance. Pork consumption is expected to slow further in the coming years but will retain its dominant position.

As China has no comparative advantage in land-intensive agriculture (e.g. corn), strategically it would make more sense for China to import such products instead of the products for which China has a certain advantage (e.g. pork). Pork production is less land-intensive if middle-sized farms play the dominant role. Therefore, instead of increasing pork imports, China should increase corn and soybean imports to facilitate the rapid domestic industrialisation of hog production.

If current trends in China’s pork production and industrialisation continue, corn imports could approach 20 million tonnes per year within a five-year time frame.

The pace and success of the industrialisation that is rapidly taking place across China’s pork sector will be a major determinant to whether China will move back towards self-sufficiency or become an even bigger importer.

If China could improve its corn yields and swine feed conversions ratios towards US levels then goals of self sufficiency are achievable.

If China does not have to import pork, it will need to import corn, and if current trends in China’s pork production and industrialisation continue, corn imports would rise significantly.

There are a number of factors that impact consumer demand for pork meat. Income growth, population growth and urbanisation are the primary factors driving increased pork demand over the long term. Rabobank forecasts that total meat consumption in China will continue to increase but at a slower rate due to decelerating population growth, which is around 0.5 percent each year. Pork consumption is in line with this trend.

China has recently been importing over 0.4 million tonnes of pork per year, in a world market with trade of less than 7 million tonnes per year. China is likely to continue to be an importer of both pork and corn for the foreseeable future, but how much of each will depend on improvements in the supply chain.

China’s pork supply chain is in transition period, shifting from traditional household farming to modern commercial systems. While both farms and processing plants are growing rapidly in size, co-ordination between the two remains undeveloped. The pork supply chain is still based on the spot market in most cases.

It also has a lack of comparative advantage in land intensive agriculture (e.g for growing corn), so it should import this type of commodity rather than producing, and focus on areas such as pork production. However, challenges in achieving success in pork production include the continuation of disease problems, food safety issues, logistics and the lack of a cold chain.

Download



Comments


No comments posted yet. Be the first to post a comment

To post comment without approval login or register

Display name

Please enter your name

Email (optional)
Comment

Please enter your comment

Post Comment

Your comment submitted successfully.Please wait for admin approval.

Some error on your process.Please try one more time.



Jobs


16 January 2015
Copywriting Apprenticeship
Agriculture, Amenity Horticulture, Arboriculture, Construction, Engineering, Equine, Gamekeeping, Sport, Food & Drink Man...

7 January 2015
Care Coordinator
Excellent organisational, administration and dairy management skills. Mofor Solutions LTD – Coventry....

16 January 2015
Senior Herdsperson - Leckford Estate, Hampshire
We are also recruiting for a part-time Operative in the Processing Dairy at Leckford Estate. At Waitrose, we produce our own ...

23 January 2015
Technical Veterinary Surgeon - Farm Animal
Experience working in a Farm Animal Practice. Has co-responsibility for Farm Animal Pharmacovigilance and technical sign off ...

20 January 2015
2 - 3 Environmental Managers ITT
The offshore wind farm and export cable. Offshore wind farm experience would be an advantage. Constructing an offshore wind f...




Top stories you may have missed
12 November 2014 | Arable
GM crops 'good for farmers and the envir...

GM crops 'good for farmers and the envir...

GM crops are good for the economy and can reduce the amount of pesticides u...


6 November 2014 | Cattle
Smaller European markets drive beef expo...

Smaller European markets drive beef expo...

Demand from smaller European markets has helped drive strong growth for UK ...


6 November 2014 | Agri Safety
Lack of engineers a 'ticking time bomb' ...

Lack of engineers a 'ticking time bomb' ...

A lack of engineers, not enough people promoting the land-based industries ...


4 November 2014 | Bees and Beekeeping
Bee action plan due: Last chance for bee...

Bee action plan due: Last chance for bee...

Environment Secretary Elizabeth Truss is launching the National Pollinator ...


4 November 2014 | Arable
Experts welcome financial boost for youn...

Experts welcome financial boost for youn...

Agricultural specialists have welcomed a potential financial boost for youn...


3 November 2014 | News
Supermarket competition on prices 'risks...

Supermarket competition on prices 'risks...

As retailers continue to participate in a highly competitive race to the bo...


31 October 2014 | Arable
New Defra farm figures 'underline volati...

New Defra farm figures 'underline volati...

New farm business income data from Defra, which focus on income from March ...


30 October 2014 | Agri Safety
Agriculture remains one of UK's most dan...

Agriculture remains one of UK's most dan...

Agriculture has remained one of the industries in which workers are most li...


29 October 2014 | Finance
UK farmland prices see 'substantial grow...

UK farmland prices see 'substantial grow...

Prime arable land in the UK has seen a substantial year-on-year growth in p...


27 October 2014 | Arable
Satellites to help farmers pinpoint dise...

Satellites to help farmers pinpoint dise...

A new mobile app for farmers able to pinpoint and identify disease, pests a...