30 January 2015 | Online since 2003



China's coldest winter may hurt wheat crop


Soycomplex

Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.10 3/4, up 21 3/4 cents; Mar 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.88 1/2, up 21 1/4 cents; Jan 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD408.50, up USD10.30; Jan 13 Soybean Oil closed at 49.50, up 8 points.


Fund buying in beans was estimated at around 3,000 lots on the day. Weekly export inspections were robust at 39.652 million bushels, and in line with trade estimates of 37-43 million. That makes year-to-date inspections 36 percent ahead of last year at 814 million bushels vs. 599.1 million.

Based on a Bloomberg survey Argentina’s 2012/13 soybean crop is estimated at 54.6 MMT vs. the USDA's 55.0 MMT. Clarivi estimated the 2012/13 Brazilian soybean crop at 83.11 MMT vs. their previous estimate of 83.0 MMT and almost 25 percent up on last season. They pegged the 2012/13 Brazilian bean area at 27.5 million ha, up 10 percent from 2011/12. CNGOIC estimated China’s January bean imports at 4.6 MMT, down 14.8 percent from December. They estimated China’s 2012 bean imports at over 58.0 MMT, up 10 percent from a year ago.

Corn

Mar 13 Corn closed at USD6.85 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents; May 13 Corn closed at USD6.85 1/4, up 4 1/2 cents.


Weekly export inspections were poor at just 7.171 million bushels versus trade ideas of 9-13 million. Year-to-date inspections are now running 55 percent behind last year's levels. The USDA announced the sale of 102 TMT US corn to unknown for 2012/13 delivery. Based on a Bloomberg survey Argentina’s 2012/13 corn crop is estimated at 25.9 MMT vs. the USDA's previous estimate of 27.5 MMT. Clarivi estimated Brazil’s 2012/13 corn crop at 72.06 MMT vs. a previous estimate of 73.57 MMT and the USDA's 70 MMT December forecast. South American weather prospects are improving along with crop production potential it would seem. "Very dry soybean farms in Mato Grosso are expecting generous rainfall this week while Buenos Aires in southern Argentina is expecting sunshine and warmth - the opposite of December," said Martell Crop Projections.

Wheat

Mar 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD7.51 1/4, up 4 cents; Mar 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.07 1/2, up 3 cents; Mar 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.45 3/4, up 4 3/4 cents.


Weekly export inspections of 13.363 million bushels were above trade estimates of 9-12 million. Year-to-date inspections are 528.745 million bushels, down 13 percent compared to 607.562 million a year ago. CNGOIC said that China’s coldest winter in 28 years may hurt the wheat crop there. Things are looking a little brighter for US winter wheat: "Precipitation was very limited this past weekend, with only a light wintry mix noted on Friday in central Texas. However, the tranquil pattern is about to change, as a significant storm system is poised to develop across the southern Plains and Delta Tuesday and Wednesday, then spread into the southern and eastern Midwest late Wednesday and Thursday. The significant upturn in rains will help to improve soil moisture and river levels a bit," said MDA CropCast.

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