05 July 2015 | Online since 2003

French wheat exports to rise UK rapeseed plaintings down



21 September 2012 10:19:39|Arable,Cereal,Crops,Market Reports,News

French wheat exports to rise; UK rapeseed plaintings down


Jonathan Lane, Gleadell’s trading manager, comments on grain markets.

Wheat

• USDA report increased corn ratings (24% good/excellent) – harvest estimated at 26% complete against 9% average.

• Egypt’s GASC purchases wheat for November 21st-30th shipment – Russian wheat still offered and 120tmt sold.

• CNGOIC sees China’s 2013 corn imports at 1mln t against estimated 5.5mln t for 2012.


• Ukraine grain stocks, as of, 1st September, reported at 19.4mln t, down 11% year-on-year.

• Exports, as of 17th September, estimated at 4.4mln t, including 2.13mln t of wheat (agreed export quota is only 4mln t of wheat).

• Russian Ag Ministry reports country will produce 72-73mln t of grain this year, putting exportable grain surplus at 10-14mln t. Reports that Russia may double wheat imports (1.5-2.5mln t) due to drought – likely to come from the Ukraine/Kazakhstan.

• French 2012/13 non-EU wheat exports expected to rise to 9mln t due to declining exports from the Black Sea region.

• DEFRA reports English 2012/13 wheat area at 1.856mln hectares, down from 1.875mln previously – reduces UK crop by approx. 125,000t.

Summary

The UK harvest is now reported at 95% complete with the remaining areas mainly in Scotland. Yield expectations are now likely to be at the lower end of a range between 6.9 and 7.2t/ha and possibly even lower. Despite reports of ‘better specific weights’ as harvest has progressed northward, specific weight remains the main quality issue of this year’s crop, providing many challenges to all sectors of the UK grain industry.

Global markets remain mixed, firstly supported by news of a US FED stimulus that originally supported values, only to be greeted by a commodity ‘sell-off’ as concerns over global demand triggered strong liquidation selling in US markets. Reports of increased harvest activity in corn, and better than expected yields in soybeans, also added to the negative tones.

Long-term, markets remain supported. Black Sea wheat offers will soon dry up, Southern hemisphere wheat production is forecast 10mln t lower than last year, and a tighter EU surplus is seen replacing declining Black Sea exports. However, one must remember we are already at a high price, and any rumour of waning demand will encourage long-holders to ‘dump’ whatever the fundamentals may say.

Oilseeds

• The start of this week saw soybeans move considerably lower with a two day sell off knocking around £20/t off the price of CBOT soy in just two days! There were no real fundamental changes to the market and the sell-off was more to do with a combination of smaller factors.

• Harvest is progressing well in the US, and there have been localised reports of better than expected yields and some farmer selling followed. There has also been speculation that the harvested acres figure will be revised upward by the USDA in October. But, in our opinion, the biggest factor has been a lack of new momentum and news to maintain what are historically high levels.

• Despite this setback, the fundamentals for soybeans remain in a tight supply & demand situation with usage rationing needed.

• Rapeseed has moved down, around £10/t lower over the course of the week - tracking the soybeans market. The domestic market has been fairly quiet as people digest the big moves in soybeans.

• Rapeseed plantings have gone well in Germany and France - the biggest producers in the EU - and we estimate that UK plantings will be marginally down from last year. It is worth noting that prices for 2013 remain at excellent levels and we believe it is worth locking in a small percentage at today’s new crop prices.

Download




Comments


No comments posted yet. Be the first to post a comment

To post comment without approval login or register

Display name

Please enter your name

Email (optional)
Comment

Please enter your comment

Post Comment

Your comment submitted successfully.Please wait for admin approval.

Some error on your process.Please try one more time.



Jobs


Start Date: 17 June 2015
First class stockman / tractor driver required for a job near Tenby, Wales

Permanent position for a first class stockman to take responsibility for all dairy young stock rearing, feeding dairy he...


Start Date: 19 June 2015
Job for EXPERIENCED  HARVEST TRACTOR DRIVER - LINCOLNSHIRE. 

EXPERIENCED  tractor driver required for harvest 2015 based in North East Lincolnshire.

Must have experience in usin...


Start Date: 20 June 2015
Job for feed mill operativeHGV driver livestock work>>Yorkshire

this vacancy is for a a motivated individual who has a passion for farming and love of livestock and interested in feedstuffs...


Start Date: 30 June 2015
Skilled Tractor Driver (Highways) Job>>> Dunkeswell

Environmental contractor requires a skilled tractor driver to operate modern tractor with front flail deck and rear trimmer f...


Start Date: 5 July 2015
Qualified tractor driver required for harvest and autumn work >>> Chelmsford

2,000 acre arable farm needs a sensible tractor driver to help with the harvest.You will be driving a tractor to carry out al...





Top stories you may have missed
5 June 2015 | Cattle

A strong pound and increased red meat imports coupled with a plentiful dome...


5 June 2015 | Arable

Depression is affecting Wales' farming industry and there is a need to use ...


5 June 2015 | Arable

With just one week to go before the final judging and announcement of the w...


5 June 2015 | Finance

A rural law expert has highlighted the importance of good succession planni...


5 June 2015 | Farmshops

A south Yorkshire dairy farming family is pulling out all the stops to prom...


4 June 2015 | Finance

Predicting what is going to happen to wheat prices is a challenge, but in s...


4 June 2015 | Agri Safety

A Lancashire based livestock theft prevention scheme is aiming to go nation...


4 June 2015 | News

A female farmer has been recognised by the farming and conservation industr...


4 June 2015 | Finance

The new Conservative government appears to be preparing to implement cuts f...


4 June 2015 | Arable

The Rural Payments Agency (RPA) will have mobile support units at the follo...