HROC (agency) - Kubota
Farminguk
26 September 2016 | Online since 2003
Auto Trader Ltd


21 September 2012 10:19:39 |

French wheat exports to rise; UK rapeseed plaintings down


Jonathan Lane, Gleadell’s trading manager, comments on grain markets.
Wheat
• USDA report increased corn ratings (24% good/excellent) – harvest estimated at 26% complete against 9% average.
• Egypt’s GASC purchases wheat for November 21st-30th shipment – Russian wheat still offered and 120tmt sold.
• CNGOIC sees China’s 2013 corn imports at 1mln t against estimated 5.5mln t for 2012.

• Ukraine grain stocks, as of, 1st September, reported at 19.4mln t, down 11% year-on-year.
• Exports, as of 17th September, estimated at 4.4mln t, including 2.13mln t of wheat (agreed export quota is only 4mln t of wheat).
• Russian Ag Ministry reports country will produce 72-73mln t of grain this year, putting exportable grain surplus at 10-14mln t. Reports that Russia may double wheat imports (1.5-2.5mln t) due to drought – likely to come from the Ukraine/Kazakhstan.
• French 2012/13 non-EU wheat exports expected to rise to 9mln t due to declining exports from the Black Sea region.
• DEFRA reports English 2012/13 wheat area at 1.856mln hectares, down from 1.875mln previously – reduces UK crop by approx. 125,000t.
Summary
The UK harvest is now reported at 95% complete with the remaining areas mainly in Scotland. Yield expectations are now likely to be at the lower end of a range between 6.9 and 7.2t/ha and possibly even lower. Despite reports of ‘better specific weights’ as harvest has progressed northward, specific weight remains the main quality issue of this year’s crop, providing many challenges to all sectors of the UK grain industry.
Global markets remain mixed, firstly supported by news of a US FED stimulus that originally supported values, only to be greeted by a commodity ‘sell-off’ as concerns over global demand triggered strong liquidation selling in US markets. Reports of increased harvest activity in corn, and better than expected yields in soybeans, also added to the negative tones.
Long-term, markets remain supported. Black Sea wheat offers will soon dry up, Southern hemisphere wheat production is forecast 10mln t lower than last year, and a tighter EU surplus is seen replacing declining Black Sea exports. However, one must remember we are already at a high price, and any rumour of waning demand will encourage long-holders to ‘dump’ whatever the fundamentals may say.
Oilseeds
• The start of this week saw soybeans move considerably lower with a two day sell off knocking around £20/t off the price of CBOT soy in just two days! There were no real fundamental changes to the market and the sell-off was more to do with a combination of smaller factors.
• Harvest is progressing well in the US, and there have been localised reports of better than expected yields and some farmer selling followed. There has also been speculation that the harvested acres figure will be revised upward by the USDA in October. But, in our opinion, the biggest factor has been a lack of new momentum and news to maintain what are historically high levels.
• Despite this setback, the fundamentals for soybeans remain in a tight supply & demand situation with usage rationing needed.
• Rapeseed has moved down, around £10/t lower over the course of the week - tracking the soybeans market. The domestic market has been fairly quiet as people digest the big moves in soybeans.

• Rapeseed plantings have gone well in Germany and France - the biggest producers in the EU - and we estimate that UK plantings will be marginally down from last year. It is worth noting that prices for 2013 remain at excellent levels and we believe it is worth locking in a small percentage at today’s new crop prices.

Download

0 Comment

loginuserlogo
Name

Please enter your name


Email

Please enter your email

Please enter valid email


Comment

Please enter your comment


Post Comment

Your comment has been submitted successfully. Please wait for admin approval.


Comments

No comments posted yet. Be the first to post a comment


New Zealand | 26 September 2016
Foreign investment in food raises fears over loss of control

Silver Fern Farms' controversial $260 million deal with Shanghai Maling received the final tick of approval from the government last week, based on its belief the purchase would be a substantial benef...


Denmark | 26 September 2016
Denmark and Malaysia signs agriculture deal

On 22 September Minister for Agriculture & Agro-based Industries, Dato’ Sri Ahmad Shabery Cheek and his Danish counterpart, Minister Esben Lunde Larsen, finally signed the Memorandum of Understanding ...


USA | 26 September 2016
California farmers drilling wells as groundwater limits loom

Farmers in central California are drilling more and deeper wells than ever before to pump water for their fruit orchards and sprawling fields following government imposed limits on surface water. T...


New Zealand | 26 September 2016
Fonterra profits jump 65% despite ongoing challenges in dairy markets

Despite ongoing challenges in the dairy market, Fonterra, the New Zealand-based co-op, has posted a 65% increase in profits for the 2015/2016 financial year. The co-op has seen net profits increase...


Romania | 26 September 2016
Romania may suspend farmland purchases by foreigners for three years

Romania may suspend farmland purchases by foreign individuals and companies for a period of three years if a draft law currently debated in the Parliament is approved. The new bill aims to set stri...



Trending Now

Viewed
Discussed


Top stories you may have missed
FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

Labour will end the badger cull and prioritise ending bovine TB, Shadow Def...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

A herd of rare White Park cattle could die out if its owners do not urgentl...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

The UK government is "failing" to support farmers in the long-term accordin...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

Retailer Co-op has announced that from May 2017 all of its bacon and lamb w...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

Over 50 wildlife organisations have compiled a stock-take of all the UK's n...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

In the run up to the EU farm ministers meeting the agricultural sector have...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

The RPA must iron out a number of problems that still exist with 2015 BPS p...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

Tourism businesses in the countryside are being held back due to the uncert...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

A 24 point action plan aimed at revitalising Scotland's sheep sector after ...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

A new survey has revealed that the vast majority of British consumers belie...


closeicon
Username
Password