01 February 2015 | Online since 2003



6 July 2012|Market Reports,News

Gleadell Grain Market Report - 6th July 2012


Jonathan Lane, Gleadell’s trading manager, comments on grain markets:

WHEAT

- USDA reports US wheat harvest 69% complete, 59% last week and 49% last year.

- USDA reports spring wheat crop in good/excellent condition at 71%, down 6% on the week.
- USDA raises US corn and wheat acreage – quarterly stocks seen at traded expectations.
- Ukraine’s PM promises free grain exports in 2012/13 – expects good harvest and have no plans to impose restrictions.
- Argentine wheat farmers have planted nearly half of the planned area – seedlings off to a good start – favourable weather.

- India sells 1st wheat cargo to Asia in 7 years – Government allows 2mln t of wheat exports.
- USDA report corn crop in good/excellent condition at 48%, down 8% on the week – lowest ratings since crop disaster of 1988.
- Ukrainian farm minister cuts Ukraine’s 2012/13 grain export forecast to 22-23mln t from 25-27mln t.
- Ukraine sees 20-21mln t of grains harvested early in 2012, mainly wheat and barley, against 34mln t in 2011.
- IGC cuts 2012/13 global wheat estimates to 665mln t, down 6mln t since last month and 30mln t lower than in 2011/12.
- EU new crop wheat futures reach contract highs on continued US heat worries.

Summary

The US acreage/stock numbers released last Friday, deemed as mildly bearish, traded for about 15 seconds before weather issues returned, pushing the markets higher.

Extreme hot weather remains in the forecast for the Mid-west, stressing the corn crop further. Average trade estimates for the US corn yield are now around 154bpa against the current USDA forecast of 166bpa which, if correct, would reduce the US crop by 27mln t, but would still achieve a crop close to the record 2009/10 season.

A pause for thought regarding the US corn supply and demand: if you plug in the 2011/12 US domestic usage numbers into the current 2012/13 season projection, with the increased acreage, the US corn yield could drop to 142bpa before stocks fell below the 2011/12 level. Maybe, just maybe, these markets are getting overdone.

The current weather situation in the UK and its potential to promote fusarium development and increase associated mycotoxin risk, is of keen interest to all. This increases the likelihood of growers needing to provide accurate risk assessment results in wheat.

Download



Comments


No comments posted yet. Be the first to post a comment

To post comment without approval login or register

Display name

Please enter your name

Email (optional)
Comment

Please enter your comment

Post Comment

Your comment submitted successfully.Please wait for admin approval.

Some error on your process.Please try one more time.



Jobs


10 January 2015
PROPERTY SOLICITOR
A commercial practice with a strong focus on agriculture and rural estates, the food sector and commercial property....

17 January 2015
Senior Waiting Staff (Richmond Arms)
Our approach to food and drink is a reflection of our obsession for perfection, offering our own organic meats, dairy and ale...

9 January 2015
Regional Manager or Regional Manager Designate
Strong interpersonal skills to be able to deal with a wide range of business to business customers from Agriculture to Public...

12 January 2015
Post Doctoral Researcher
We are now recruiting for a Post-Doctoral Researcher to work with us on two exciting new research projects at the intersectio...

20 January 2015
Cable Installation Manager (Offshore Wind) in Greater London, London
Our client is looking for an experienced wind farm installation manager to work on their existing and up and coming projects ...




Top stories you may have missed
12 November 2014 | Arable
GM crops 'good for farmers and the envir...

GM crops 'good for farmers and the envir...

GM crops are good for the economy and can reduce the amount of pesticides u...


6 November 2014 | Cattle
Smaller European markets drive beef expo...

Smaller European markets drive beef expo...

Demand from smaller European markets has helped drive strong growth for UK ...


6 November 2014 | Agri Safety
Lack of engineers a 'ticking time bomb' ...

Lack of engineers a 'ticking time bomb' ...

A lack of engineers, not enough people promoting the land-based industries ...


4 November 2014 | Bees and Beekeeping
Bee action plan due: Last chance for bee...

Bee action plan due: Last chance for bee...

Environment Secretary Elizabeth Truss is launching the National Pollinator ...


4 November 2014 | Arable
Experts welcome financial boost for youn...

Experts welcome financial boost for youn...

Agricultural specialists have welcomed a potential financial boost for youn...


3 November 2014 | News
Supermarket competition on prices 'risks...

Supermarket competition on prices 'risks...

As retailers continue to participate in a highly competitive race to the bo...


31 October 2014 | Arable
New Defra farm figures 'underline volati...

New Defra farm figures 'underline volati...

New farm business income data from Defra, which focus on income from March ...


30 October 2014 | Agri Safety
Agriculture remains one of UK's most dan...

Agriculture remains one of UK's most dan...

Agriculture has remained one of the industries in which workers are most li...


29 October 2014 | Finance
UK farmland prices see 'substantial grow...

UK farmland prices see 'substantial grow...

Prime arable land in the UK has seen a substantial year-on-year growth in p...


27 October 2014 | Arable
Satellites to help farmers pinpoint dise...

Satellites to help farmers pinpoint dise...

A new mobile app for farmers able to pinpoint and identify disease, pests a...