05 March 2015 | Online since 2003



6 July 2012|Market Reports,News

Gleadell Grain Market Report - 6th July 2012


Jonathan Lane, Gleadell’s trading manager, comments on grain markets:

WHEAT

- USDA reports US wheat harvest 69% complete, 59% last week and 49% last year.

- USDA reports spring wheat crop in good/excellent condition at 71%, down 6% on the week.
- USDA raises US corn and wheat acreage – quarterly stocks seen at traded expectations.
- Ukraine’s PM promises free grain exports in 2012/13 – expects good harvest and have no plans to impose restrictions.
- Argentine wheat farmers have planted nearly half of the planned area – seedlings off to a good start – favourable weather.

- India sells 1st wheat cargo to Asia in 7 years – Government allows 2mln t of wheat exports.
- USDA report corn crop in good/excellent condition at 48%, down 8% on the week – lowest ratings since crop disaster of 1988.
- Ukrainian farm minister cuts Ukraine’s 2012/13 grain export forecast to 22-23mln t from 25-27mln t.
- Ukraine sees 20-21mln t of grains harvested early in 2012, mainly wheat and barley, against 34mln t in 2011.
- IGC cuts 2012/13 global wheat estimates to 665mln t, down 6mln t since last month and 30mln t lower than in 2011/12.
- EU new crop wheat futures reach contract highs on continued US heat worries.

Summary

The US acreage/stock numbers released last Friday, deemed as mildly bearish, traded for about 15 seconds before weather issues returned, pushing the markets higher.

Extreme hot weather remains in the forecast for the Mid-west, stressing the corn crop further. Average trade estimates for the US corn yield are now around 154bpa against the current USDA forecast of 166bpa which, if correct, would reduce the US crop by 27mln t, but would still achieve a crop close to the record 2009/10 season.

A pause for thought regarding the US corn supply and demand: if you plug in the 2011/12 US domestic usage numbers into the current 2012/13 season projection, with the increased acreage, the US corn yield could drop to 142bpa before stocks fell below the 2011/12 level. Maybe, just maybe, these markets are getting overdone.

The current weather situation in the UK and its potential to promote fusarium development and increase associated mycotoxin risk, is of keen interest to all. This increases the likelihood of growers needing to provide accurate risk assessment results in wheat.

Download



Comments


No comments posted yet. Be the first to post a comment

To post comment without approval login or register

Display name

Please enter your name

Email (optional)
Comment

Please enter your comment

Post Comment

Your comment submitted successfully.Please wait for admin approval.

Some error on your process.Please try one more time.



Jobs


16 February 2015
Production Planner
Production Planning Plan and create production orders to fulfil the customer demand (i.e. meet all forecast) on a weekly / da...

17 February 2015
Maintenance Craftsperson (Mechanical)
It comprises Barnet Hospital, Chase Farm Hospital, the Royal Free Hospital and more than 30 services in the community....

17 February 2015
S2 Feed Engineer
Engineering Assistant Full Time x 40 hours per week (Mon-Fri) At Trewithen Dairy, Cornwall's largest milk bottler our people ...

20 February 2015
Bar/Waiting Staff, Chefs and Cafe Supervisor Required
Vacancies now for bar, waiting staff, chefs and cafe supervisor at Kent's landmark venue and major visitor attraction, The Ho...

24 February 2015
Major Gifts Fundraiser / Business Development
The Soil Association is the UK’s leading membership charity pioneering solutions to transform the way we eat, farm and care f...




Top stories you may have missed
2 February 2015 | Arable
Is EU membership damaging UK farming?

Is EU membership damaging UK farming?

Membership of the EU is damaging the British farming industry, according to...


29 January 2015 | Machinery and Equipment
Drones 'rapidly changing' agriculture

Drones 'rapidly changing' agriculture

BASIS has launched an accreditation for pilots of Unmanned Aerial Systems (...


23 January 2015 | Arable
UK wheat yields have potential to double

UK wheat yields have potential to double

UK wheat yields have theoretical potential to more than double over the nex...


23 January 2015 | Machinery and Equipment
Crowds flock to LAMMA 2015

Crowds flock to LAMMA 2015

Britain’s farmers flocked to Peterborough for the first day of LAMMA’15 to ...


22 January 2015 | Cattle
Don't blame supermarkets for milk crisis...

Don't blame supermarkets for milk crisis...

The crisis in the dairy industry is not the fault of supermarkets, accordin...


16 January 2015 | CLA
Families affected by HS2 face 'major wor...

Families affected by HS2 face 'major wor...

Transport Minister Baroness Kramer visited three rural businesses in Cheshi...


16 January 2015 | Machinery and Equipment
John Deere unveil new 6R tractor range

John Deere unveil new 6R tractor range

Spearheading the John Deere range of mid-size tractors from Mannheim, the n...


14 January 2015 | Animal Health
Monthly TB checks more effective than ba...

Monthly TB checks more effective than ba...

Regular testing for bovine TB could significantly reduce the number of infe...


12 January 2015 | News
Government regulations hampering UK agri...

Government regulations hampering UK agri...

Single-issue policy-making threatens to hamper, not help, the progress of U...


8 January 2015 | Cattle
2015: The year ahead for the beef market

2015: The year ahead for the beef market

2014 has been a “rocky old year” for the beef industry but better prices ar...