27 May 2015 | Online since 2003



Grains Market Report - 22nd February 2013


Jonathan Lane, Gleadell’s trading manager, comments on grain markets:

Wheat

The market has been supported by rumours of China buying up to 1 mln mt of wheat from various origins. This rumour is not confirmed.


Sterling has been extremely volatile this week, as has the Euro. Economic conditions both here and in Euroland remain uncertain, currency has a large effect on both import and export parities.

There has been little further news regarding Russia’s import demand. Much of the tonnage is expected to come from Kazakhstan.

The latest customs information shows UK exports in December totalled 35,130 mt, giving a season total to the end of December of 512,129 mt (of which Gleadell has shipped nearly 60pct). Imports of wheat in December totalled 305,584 mt, giving a season to date figure of 1.34mln mt. Also of note is the imported maize figure of 759,850 mt to the end of December, an increase of 300,000mt over the previous year, with much of this extra tonnage rumoured to be aimed at the bioethanol plants.

Wheat prices have been buffeted by wild currency moves worldwide and by rumours of Chinese buying, or the lack of it. In the EU the line-up of French vessels still looks sizeable but there are fears that France will not meet its export target and will have carry out stocks that are larger than previously anticipated. The debate about both the extent of plantings and therefore the size of the UK 2013 wheat crop has started in earnest, with potential crop sizes ranging between 10 mln t and 12.6 mln t.

There is still some way to go till harvest with a lot of weather to be negotiated, therefore any estimate at this stage is at best a guesstimate. One thing that is becoming clear is that the UK will carry out over 2 mln mt of old crop wheat - a large number! This wheat is mostly of dubious quality and, in today’s terms, priced at £25 to £30 over new crop values, which makes carrying stock over to new crop financially unviable. This is not, on its own, at all supportive for old crop UK prices, and we still do need to export some of this tonnage between now and the end of June.

Oilseed Rape

May13 matif rapeseed has gained around 10 euros this week tracking soybeans and canola higher. Soybeans have traded up towards the top of the recent range on Argentinian weather concerns, a lack of Argentinian farmer selling, logistical problems at Brazilian ports and renewed Chinese buying interest. At present the soybean market is trading within a range as we have a mixed picture of bullish and bearish factors.

The big driver in domestic UK prices this week has been the weakness of Sterling against the Euro following the release of the Bank of England minutes. They revealed a potential move towards more quantitative easing, taking the FX market by surprise and adding £6-7 on domestic prices in a very short space of time. This currency move enabled some farmers to achieve £400 ex farm, although the matif rapeseed contract remained fairly stable.

The European physical market is fairly quiet with Australian seed still trading into the EU at discounts to European seed.

The UK new crop market also remains quiet with farmers reluctant to sell forward with question marks over crop prospects.

Download




Comments


No comments posted yet. Be the first to post a comment

To post comment without approval login or register

Display name

Please enter your name

Email (optional)
Comment

Please enter your comment

Post Comment

Your comment submitted successfully.Please wait for admin approval.

Some error on your process.Please try one more time.



Jobs


1 June 2015
job for a Part time Shepherd on farm in the Dunblane area of Scotland.
Part time Shepherd to look after all aspects of small flock c 200 mainly mule ewes on small estate in south Perthsh...

8 May 2015
Mixed Farm with Contracting Business Requires Experienced Tractor Driver/Sprayer Operator. >>> Job near Devizes, Wiltshire
Applicant will be required to hold PA1 and PA2 and Telehandler certificates.  Experience with JD Green Star an advantage...

6 July 2015
Job for Tractor driver/General farm worker required for harvest in >>Bedfordshire<<
Harvest worker on a 1200 acre farm in Bedfordshire to carry out cultivation and corn cart work using a John Deere 7230 with G...

12 May 2015
Tractor Driver -  job in Cornwall on large dairy farm
A skilled tractor driver/telehandler is required to be responsible for the TMR feed system for our large pedigree Holstein da...

15 May 2015
Job for General farm worker required for busy mixed beef and sheep farm in rural Mid Wales. 
General farm stock person required for duties in a large beef and sheep farm in Mid Wales. The ideal candidate will be versat...



Top stories you may have missed
15 May 2015 | Arable

Scotland’s Rural Affairs Secretary Richard Lochhead is calling on the Europ...


15 May 2015 | Finance

As the country settles down following the turmoil of the general election, ...


14 May 2015 | Animal Health

New research from the Universities of Bristol and Cambridge has found that ...


13 May 2015 | Animal Health

A new publication to help farmers prevent sheep lameness and offer advice o...


12 May 2015 | Agri Safety

The Farmers’ Union of Wales is putting the spotlight on Liver fluke at next...


5 May 2015 | News

The UK is now third in the global rankings for utility-scale solar energy a...


29 April 2015 | Agri Safety

A recent Rural Watch demonstration and information event gave Farmers’ Unio...


24 April 2015 | Meat Processing

Retailers should confirm their commitments to sourcing UK lamb this season,...


15 April 2015 | Meat Processing

A leading retailer has apologised after selling imported lamb in a Borders ...


9 April 2015 | Finance

The time has come for landlords to expect to see reductions in farm rents, ...