CropTec Show
Farminguk
27 September 2016 | Online since 2003
OvoConcept


28 January 2013 17:04:57 |

Humphrey Feeds Commodity Report - 28 January 2013


A dismal week for the UK economy, but the markets put the skids beneath Sterling when talk of a date for the PM’s European speech was first announced.
The fact that the US wants the UK to stay in, and the PM is seen to have `kicked the can down the road’, seems to have weakened £ further during the week, only to take another dive at the prospect of a triple dip recession! Weaker £ will increase the cost of imported raw materials, but the good side is that it makes our wheat exports more expensive.
Oh, I forgot, the cupboard is already bare, we have no more exports really, and if anything may have to import grain to see us through to what we hope will be a harvest.

Demand for wheat in the UK remains firm, particularly from the industrial factories that process wheat, so much so that it is distorting regional prices.
In a normal season a range around England of £2-3 would be normal, but that has spread to £7-8 as Cerestar and Ensus continue to pull large quantities of wheat to feed their processes.
There has been much speculation about the impact of speculators on the market, as to whether they influence the market, exaggerate its movements, or on the other hand provide much needed liquidity.
The jury will be out for some time to come, but the most recent market fall (seen above in green) was very much led by the shortening of speculator’s positions for US wheat as the long Christmas holiday approached.
UK prices had lifted to contract highs, effectively matching the cost of importing grain (at the end of the season) and some in the trade were talking that the price would continue to rise. Having achieved a `world price’, when the speculators sold US grain, the US market dropped, and so did ours.
This graph shows a strong correlation to the falling wheat price:
UK wheat prices closed at last week’s level for old crop, but new crop continues to rise, as worries continue regarding the crop that is supposed to be growing.
Estimates suggest that only 75% of what would normally have been planted was planted by the end of last year.
Winter wheat can be planted up to the end of January, but after that, spring varieties perform better – but spring varieties are all but sold out.
With farmers reporting significant damage to the planted crop from slugs and water, there is concern as to where the wheat will be coming from, as some farmers may only be able to plant poorer performing winter wheat varieties.
One unofficial pole of arable farmers this week estimated that harvest 2013 may yield less than 10 million tonne, whereas in a good year we harvest 16 million, and 2012’s dismal harvest yielded 13 million. Surely things will improve that figure…..?
Soya prices are marginally higher than a week ago, responding to the dual impacts of weather in S America, and confirmation of China’s increasingly rapacious appetite for soya.
2011 – China imported 52.5mln tonne, 2012: 58.4, 10% more, the UK, by comparison, imports circa 2mln T, and that is a pretty constant figure). Conditions have been dry in Argentina and Southern Brazil, and with such large crops required, any reduction in potentially record crops would not be advantageous.
One importer has at last released prices for May onwards for NonGM, but there will not be enough to satisfy current UK demand, and is already at a significant premium.

Download

0 Comment

loginuserlogo
Name

Please enter your name


Email

Please enter your email

Please enter valid email


Comment

Please enter your comment


Post Comment

Your comment has been submitted successfully. Please wait for admin approval.


Comments

No comments posted yet. Be the first to post a comment


India | 27 September 2016
For a GM-driven agriculture revival

Agricultural growth has shown signs of stagnation of late. Some of the recent developments do not augur well for the sector and unless corrective measures are initiated, it could damage India’s long-t...


Ghana | 27 September 2016
African agriculture is powering economic transformation

The evidence is now in and the verdict is that Africa’s agriculture is powering economic transformation in the region. African agriculture has shown remarkable improvement compared to its precarious s...


USA | 27 September 2016
Wheat farmers ask RMA for help with falling numbers

They want USDA Risk Management Agency Administrator Brandon Willis to make an exception to the procedure the agency uses to calculate a farmer’s actual production history, or APH, said Michelle Hennin...


Ukraine | 27 September 2016
Ukraine mulls cancelling ban on farmland sale

The Ukrainian Agriculture Ministry said on Monday it had prepared a draft law on agricultural reform, which envisaged cancellation of a ban on the sale of the country's farmland. "Maybe at some st...


New Zealand | 27 September 2016
New Zealand to help boost local dairy industry

Thousands of Filipinos stand to benefit from technical interventions New Zealand committed to provide to boost the local dairy industry. Agriculture Secretary Emmanuel Piñol on Tuesday said Nathan ...



Trending Now

Viewed
Discussed


Top stories you may have missed
FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

Labour will end the badger cull and prioritise ending bovine TB, Shadow Def...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

A herd of rare White Park cattle could die out if its owners do not urgentl...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

The UK government is "failing" to support farmers in the long-term accordin...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

Retailer Co-op has announced that from May 2017 all of its bacon and lamb w...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

Over 50 wildlife organisations have compiled a stock-take of all the UK's n...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

In the run up to the EU farm ministers meeting the agricultural sector have...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

The RPA must iron out a number of problems that still exist with 2015 BPS p...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

Tourism businesses in the countryside are being held back due to the uncert...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

A 24 point action plan aimed at revitalising Scotland's sheep sector after ...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

A new survey has revealed that the vast majority of British consumers belie...


closeicon
Username
Password