02 February 2015 | Online since 2003



18 September 2012|Arable,Cereal,Crops,Market Reports,News

Potential US-China trade dispute 'knocking market confidence'


EU wheat closed lower with Nov 12 London wheat down GBP2.50/tonne at GBP204.50/tonne and Nov 12 Paris wheat falling EUR6.25/tonne to EUR260.25/tonne.

It was a subdued start to the week, with news of a potential trade dispute brewing between the US and China knocking market confidence a little. With funds holding large speculative long positions in US corn, soybeans and wheat then any possible sudden moving of the goalposts such as this immediately sparks profit-taking liquidation.

Russia said that it had harvested 63 MMT of grains so far off 75% of the planted area. The Russian Grain Union said that the final harvest volume would be 72 MMT, down 23.6% on last year.

The Ukraine Ministry said that it had harvested 27.63 MMT of grains so far off 70% of the planted area, with yields averaging 2.61 MT/ha, down 14.7% on last year. They expect a final harvest result of 47 MMT this year, versus 56.7 MMT in 2011.

The corn harvest is only 12% complete so far, producing 1.81 MMT with yields coming in at 3.45 MT/ha, they add. Offre et Demande Agricole say that they expect a Ukraine corn harvest of 20.2 MMT this year, a little below the USDA's 21 MMT expectation.

Within 5 years Ukraine aim to have an annual grain harvest of 100 MMT, using more westernised farming methods, including better quality machinery and seed, the Ministry said. They didn't say where the investment was coming from in a country that habitually retains VAT refunds legitimately due to grain exporters.

Ukraine has exported 4.2 MMT of grains so far in 2012/13, an increase of 57% compared to the same period of 2011/12. Of that total so far, wheat exports account for 1.97 MMT, up 61% and corn exports 1.22 MMT. The USDA has Ukraine down to export 12.5 MMT of corn, 4 MMT of wheat and 2.5 MMT of barley in 2012/13. Corn exports will dominate once the harvest nears completion.

Australia exported 2.38 MMT of wheat in August, cutting ending stocks there to just over 9 MMT with one month of their marketing year to go. That implies that maybe the USDA's carryover estimate for 2011/12 may be a bit high at 7.7 MMT. They are using an export figure this season of 23 MMT, the Commonwealth Bank think that this could be closer to 24-24.5 MMT.

This would suggest that with many 2012/13 wheat production estimates now falling well below the USDA's suggested 26 MMT, then possibly Australia won't be quite such an aggressive exporter next season.

Download



Comments


No comments posted yet. Be the first to post a comment

To post comment without approval login or register

Display name

Please enter your name

Email (optional)
Comment

Please enter your comment

Post Comment

Your comment submitted successfully.Please wait for admin approval.

Some error on your process.Please try one more time.



Jobs


17 January 2015
Agronomist
Understand environmental factors and schemes and be able to work with the companies key customers to manage these at farm lev...

29 January 2015
Apprentice Animal Grooming Assitant
There are separate Equine and Farm veterinary teams based in Derby working across Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Leicestershire...

17 January 2015
Technical Support Officer
A food manufacturer known for its dairy and dessert products is looking to recruit an experienced Technical Support Officer.....

10 January 2015
Nursery Nurse
Qualified Nursery Nurse Level 3 Required. Offerton Farm Day Nursery. Hindlip, Worcester, WR3 8SX. 01905 75 77 79 Please refer...

22 January 2015
Farm Hand
Working on a turkey farm, duties will include:. Sweeping the aisles and working areas in sheds, assisting the other farm hand...




Top stories you may have missed
12 November 2014 | Arable
GM crops 'good for farmers and the envir...

GM crops 'good for farmers and the envir...

GM crops are good for the economy and can reduce the amount of pesticides u...


6 November 2014 | Cattle
Smaller European markets drive beef expo...

Smaller European markets drive beef expo...

Demand from smaller European markets has helped drive strong growth for UK ...


6 November 2014 | Agri Safety
Lack of engineers a 'ticking time bomb' ...

Lack of engineers a 'ticking time bomb' ...

A lack of engineers, not enough people promoting the land-based industries ...


4 November 2014 | Bees and Beekeeping
Bee action plan due: Last chance for bee...

Bee action plan due: Last chance for bee...

Environment Secretary Elizabeth Truss is launching the National Pollinator ...


4 November 2014 | Arable
Experts welcome financial boost for youn...

Experts welcome financial boost for youn...

Agricultural specialists have welcomed a potential financial boost for youn...


3 November 2014 | News
Supermarket competition on prices 'risks...

Supermarket competition on prices 'risks...

As retailers continue to participate in a highly competitive race to the bo...


31 October 2014 | Arable
New Defra farm figures 'underline volati...

New Defra farm figures 'underline volati...

New farm business income data from Defra, which focus on income from March ...


30 October 2014 | Agri Safety
Agriculture remains one of UK's most dan...

Agriculture remains one of UK's most dan...

Agriculture has remained one of the industries in which workers are most li...


29 October 2014 | Finance
UK farmland prices see 'substantial grow...

UK farmland prices see 'substantial grow...

Prime arable land in the UK has seen a substantial year-on-year growth in p...


27 October 2014 | Arable
Satellites to help farmers pinpoint dise...

Satellites to help farmers pinpoint dise...

A new mobile app for farmers able to pinpoint and identify disease, pests a...