23-11-2012 10:01 AM | Arable, Cereal, Crops, Market Reports, News

Russia cuts harvest forecast amid drought



EU grains closed mixed with Nov 12 London wheat up GBP2.00/tonne to GBP218.00/tonne, May 13 up GBP0.30/tonne to GBP221.05/tonne and new crop Nov 13 GBP0.20/tonne weaker at GBP187.55/tonne. Jan 13 Paris milling wheat added EUR1.00/tonne to close at EUR270.25/tonne.

As you might expect it was a relatively subdued session with America closed for the Thanksgiving Day holiday.

Summer drought in southern Russia has given way to autumn drought, seeing the Ag Ministry there cut their forecast for the winter grain area from 16.8 million hectares to 15.9 million.

The Ministry also said that the 2012 harvest will exceed 75 MMT in bunker weight, almost 20 MMT down on last year, and finish around 71 MMT in clean weight. The corn harvest is still ongoing producing 8.4 MMT in bunker weight, or 7.9 MMT in clean weight, so far.

The latest statistics out of Russia show exports declining quite sharply, albeit from the manic early season pace. Grain shipments in September were 3.16 MMT, falling to 2.35 MMT in October and a projected 1.45 MMT in November. Shipments in December and January are thought likely to be only around 0.5-0.6 MMT/month.

At home, a Farming Online survey suggested that only around 66% of the planned UK winter wheat area has actually been sown, in line with the general level of trade estimates.

Crops are highly variable, but generally poorly established, leaving them vulnerable to a hard winter, should we get the one that some are forecasting.

Whilst it's only very early days yet, Farming Online say that their calculations suggest a domestic wheat crop of only 9.7 MMT in 2013, based on what has been sown already. The UK wheat crop hasn't been below 10 MMT since 1981.

Bangladesh bought 50,000 MT of optional-origin, but what will probably turn out to be Indian wheat, in their tender.

Brussels issued a respectable 380 TMT of weekly soft wheat export licences, bringing the year-to-date total to 6.8 MMT, an increase of 11.5% on this time last year. Barley exports of 70 TMT bring the 2012/13 marketing year total so far to 2.4 MMT, up 26.3% on last season.

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