29-08-2012 09:38 AM | Arable, Cereal, Crops, Market Reports, News

Russian wheat export duties 'more likely than outright ban'



Soycomplex

Sep 12 Soybeans closed at USD17.32 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents; Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD17.22 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents; Sep 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD534.20, up USD2.40; Sep 12 Soybean Oil closed at 55.73, down 18 points. There wasn't a lot of fresh news today, with funds finishing up net buyers of an estimated 4,000 soybean contracts on the day. The USDA announced the sale of 110 TMT of US beans to omnipresent China for 2012/13 delivery. Taiwan also bought 58 TMT of US beans for Nov shipment and 120 TMT of Brazilian beans for March/July shipment.

Taiwan is not a regular buyer of US beans, and this would seem to confirm that Brazil are pretty much sold out until new crop. Celeres report that 98% of the Brazilian 2011/12 bean crop has been sold versus 84% a year ago. They also say that 43% of the Brazilian 2012/13 crop has already been sold compared to 15% a year ago. Oil World estimated Brazil’s Sept 1st soybean stocks at 15.59 MMT versus 26.15 MMT a year ago, with Argentina’s at 18.5 MMT compared to 26.1 MMT a year ago. They estimated Brazilian 2012/13 soybean production at 82.0 MMT, up 23.5% on 66.4 MMT in 2011/12. Argentina's 2012/13 output is forecast at 56.0 MMT, up 38% on the 2011/12 crop of 40.5 MMT. Both of those are a long way off though, planting in Brazil is at least three weeks away yet, with Argentina even later than that. Michael Cordonnier estimated the 2012 US soybean yield at 35.5 bpa versus his previous estimate of 36.0 bpa and the USDA's 36.1 bpa.

Corn

Sep 12 Corn closed at USD7.89 1/2, down 5 cents; Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.95 1/2, down 5 1/4 cents. Funds were estimated as being net sellers of around 3-5,000 corn contracts on the day, adding to their recent liquidation phase. Heavy rains in the Delta area from Hurricane Isaac may do more harm than good at this stage for US corn in the area. The associated high winds also hold some damage potential.

MARS estimated the EU corn yield at 6.28 MT/ha, down 18% from a year ago. Michael Cordonnier estimated the 2012 US corn yield at 121.0 bpa versus his previous estimate of 123.0 bpa and the USDA's 123.4 bpa. UkrAgroConsult estimated the Ukraine grain crop at 42.38 MMT versus previous estimate of 43.87 MMT. Exports are seen at 21.5 MMT, down from their previous estimate of 23.3 MMT. More than half that total is likely to be corn. They've exported just over 1 MMT of corn so far in 2012/13 versus just 48,400 MT at this time a year ago. The trade is still digesting Friday night's results from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour. Benson Quinn Commodities Inc report that out of the last ten years the tour has over-estimated corn yields five times, and under-estimated them five times compared with the final USDA assessment.

Wheat

Sep 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.54 3/4, down 7 1/4 cents; Sep 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.67 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents; Sep 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.10, down 2 3/4 cents. Funds were said to have been net sellers of around 2,000 Chicago contracts on the day. IKAR estimated Russia’s 2012 wheat crop at 40.0 MMT versus 56.2 MMT in 2011. The Russian PM and his Ag Minister are set to meet Friday to discuss the grain markets.

At this stage it seems that export duties are more likely than an outright export ban. Egypt bought Russian wheat for October shipment over the weekend, it is not thought that Russian traders have offered anything any further forward than that as yet. Jordan are tendering for 100 TMT of optional origin wheat for Nov/Jan shipment along with 150 TMT of optional origin barley for a similar delivery period. MARS estimated EU soft wheat yields at 5.57 MT/ha, exactly in line with the 5-year average, although marginally lower than last year's 5.59 MT/ha. Improved yields in Europe's two largest wheat producing nations of France and Germany are seen compensating for losses elsewhere, most notably Romania, Estonia and Slovakia. Durum yields are forecast at 3.00 MT/ha versus 3.20 MT/ha in 2011/12.

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