22-08-2012 10:06 AM | Arable, Cereal, Crops, Market Reports, News

Sixth higher close in a row for London wheat



EU grains finished higher again with Nov 12 London wheat up GBP4.50/tonne to GBP206.50/tonne and Nov 12 Paris wheat EUR4.75/tonne firmer to EUR267.75/tonne.

This was the sixth higher close in a row for London wheat as UK farmers understandably remain reluctant sellers until the crop is in the barn and they know what they are dealing with.

Big question marks remain over both quality and quantity this year. There is also a large open interest in excess of 1 MMT in front month November, some are already wondering how much of this season's crop will even reach futures quality criteria, let alone make milling standard.

FC Stone revised their estimate for UK 2012 wheat production to 14.0 MMT, down 1.0 M from their previous estimate and 8.5% lower than last year despite a small increase in planted area.

Russian grain stocks as at Aug 1st were 27.7 MMT say the Ministry there, some 14% lower than year ago levels. Aug 1-15 grain exports were 1.3 MMT, putting them in line to ship 2.5-3.0 MMT this month to add to the 2.1 MMT exported in July.

Russia’s grain harvest is now 54% complete with average yields at 1.98 MT/ha, down 27.5% from a year ago.

The USDA last night estimated the US spring wheat crop at 79% harvested vs. 65% a week ago and vs. 40% for the 5-year average. Winter wheat harvesting is wrapping up at 97% complete.

Day one of a high profile crop tour in America estimated corn yields in Ohio this year at 110.5 bushels/acre versus 156.3 bpa last year, the current USDA estimate of 126.0 bpa and the 3-year average of 160.5 bpa.

South Dakota corn yields were forecast at 74.3 bpa, the lowest in 19 years, compared to 141.1 bpa last year, the existing USDA estimate of 98 bpa and the 3-year average of 143.9 bpa.

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