26 January 2015 | Online since 2003



Trade expecting global switch in demand to US wheat


Soycomplex

Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.94 3/4, up 11 1/2 cents; Mar 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.82, up 14 cents; Dec 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD424.6, unchanged; Dec 12 Soybean Oil closed at 47.89, up 84 points.


Fund buying in beans was estimated at around 3,000 lots on the day. The Chinese government said it was to temporarily suspend bi-weekly soybean auctions and instead begin stockpiling for state reserves. They've been offering around 400 TMT every other week onto the domestic market since the summer in an effort to control rising prices. The USDA announced the sale of 20,000 MT of soyoil to unknown.

Safras say that 66% of the Brazilian soybean crop has been planted, up from 54% a week ago. Although that is well below the 78% of a year ago it is now bang in line with the 5-year average. Argentine plantings are said to be 31% complete versus 18% last week and 44% last year. Safras estimate the Brazilian crop at 82.47 MMT, up nearly 22% from 67.76 MMT in 2011/12. The Argentine crop is forecast at 57.42 MMT, up 40% versus 41.0 MMT in 2011/12. Weekly US export inspections of 62 million bushels were very strong once more, even if 2 million below last week they were 21 million up on this week a year ago.

Corn

Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.38 3/4, up 11 3/4 cents; Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.42 1/2, up 11 1/2 cents.


Fund buying was estimated at a net 8,000 contracts on the day. Safras said that 81% of the Brazilian summer corn crop has been planted versus 89% a year ago. Argentine corn plantings are estimated at 55% complete versus 49% last week and 68% this time last year. Safras pegged Brazil’s corn crop at 68.969 MMT versus 72.336 MMT in 2011/12. Weekly export inspections were poor once again at 14.350 million bushels.

They need to average 23.6 million to keep pace with the USDA's target of 1,150 million bushels of exports for the 2012/13 marketing year. Congestion and delays at Brazilian ports should help US exports. In Argentina "Widespread heavy rains of up to 2.5 inches are predicted in the grain belt in a wave of strong thunderstorms Wednesday-Thursday. It seems unlikely growers will get all their corn planted," say Martell Crop Projections. The USDA had Argentina down to produce 28 MMT of corn in their November WASDE report, that is starting to look ambitious.

Wheat

Dec 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.41 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents; Dec 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.76, unchanged; Dec 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.10 1/4, up 1/2 cent.


Funds were estimated to have been modest net buyers of around 1,000 Chicago wheat contracts on the day. Weekly export inspections of 11.102 million bushel just about beat last week's 10.5 million, but were still very poor. The trade is expecting a global switch in demand to US wheat at some point, but there is precious little sign of it yet. After the close the USDA cut US winter wheat crop conditions by 2 points to just 34% good/excellent versus 51% a year ago. Poor/very poor was up 2 points to 24%. An astonishing 60% of South Dakota's crop is now rated poor/very poor, along with 44% of Oklahoma's and 40% of Nebraska's wheat.

"Abundant rains will be critical across the Plains next spring, once the crop emerges from dormancy, to prevent significant problems and yield declines then. The poorly established crop will also be more vulnerable to winterkill," say MDA CropCast.

Download



Comments


No comments posted yet. Be the first to post a comment

To post comment without approval login or register

Display name

Please enter your name

Email (optional)
Comment

Please enter your comment

Post Comment

Your comment submitted successfully.Please wait for admin approval.

Some error on your process.Please try one more time.



Jobs


6 January 2015
Field Sales Advisor
Our company facilitates the contract for the largest dairy doorstep delivery company in the UK. Field Sales Advisor (Fully Em...

22 January 2015
Graduate Systems Development Assistant
Frontier is the UK's leading crop inputs and grain marketing business, recognised for its close relationships with farmers an...

24 January 2015
Cattle Feed Sales Specialist – SW Scotland
Enthusiastic candidates with a successful track record of sales to farm will need to demonstrate their ability to expand an e...

22 January 2015
Assistant Dairy Herdsperson
You will have primary responsibility for the feeding of the organic dairy herd and associated livestock and carry out regular...

23 January 2015
Labourer
Labourer with CSCS needed to work on a solar farm (general site labouring duties) must have cscs and own transport to get to ...




Top stories you may have missed
12 November 2014 | Arable
GM crops 'good for farmers and the envir...

GM crops 'good for farmers and the envir...

GM crops are good for the economy and can reduce the amount of pesticides u...


6 November 2014 | Cattle
Smaller European markets drive beef expo...

Smaller European markets drive beef expo...

Demand from smaller European markets has helped drive strong growth for UK ...


6 November 2014 | Agri Safety
Lack of engineers a 'ticking time bomb' ...

Lack of engineers a 'ticking time bomb' ...

A lack of engineers, not enough people promoting the land-based industries ...


4 November 2014 | Bees and Beekeeping
Bee action plan due: Last chance for bee...

Bee action plan due: Last chance for bee...

Environment Secretary Elizabeth Truss is launching the National Pollinator ...


4 November 2014 | Arable
Experts welcome financial boost for youn...

Experts welcome financial boost for youn...

Agricultural specialists have welcomed a potential financial boost for youn...


3 November 2014 | News
Supermarket competition on prices 'risks...

Supermarket competition on prices 'risks...

As retailers continue to participate in a highly competitive race to the bo...


31 October 2014 | Arable
New Defra farm figures 'underline volati...

New Defra farm figures 'underline volati...

New farm business income data from Defra, which focus on income from March ...


30 October 2014 | Agri Safety
Agriculture remains one of UK's most dan...

Agriculture remains one of UK's most dan...

Agriculture has remained one of the industries in which workers are most li...


29 October 2014 | Finance
UK farmland prices see 'substantial grow...

UK farmland prices see 'substantial grow...

Prime arable land in the UK has seen a substantial year-on-year growth in p...


27 October 2014 | Arable
Satellites to help farmers pinpoint dise...

Satellites to help farmers pinpoint dise...

A new mobile app for farmers able to pinpoint and identify disease, pests a...