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20 November 2012 10:43:06 |

Trade expecting global switch in demand to US wheat


Soycomplex
Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.94 3/4, up 11 1/2 cents; Mar 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.82, up 14 cents; Dec 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD424.6, unchanged; Dec 12 Soybean Oil closed at 47.89, up 84 points.
Fund buying in beans was estimated at around 3,000 lots on the day. The Chinese government said it was to temporarily suspend bi-weekly soybean auctions and instead begin stockpiling for state reserves. They've been offering around 400 TMT every other week onto the domestic market since the summer in an effort to control rising prices. The USDA announced the sale of 20,000 MT of soyoil to unknown.
Safras say that 66% of the Brazilian soybean crop has been planted, up from 54% a week ago. Although that is well below the 78% of a year ago it is now bang in line with the 5-year average. Argentine plantings are said to be 31% complete versus 18% last week and 44% last year. Safras estimate the Brazilian crop at 82.47 MMT, up nearly 22% from 67.76 MMT in 2011/12. The Argentine crop is forecast at 57.42 MMT, up 40% versus 41.0 MMT in 2011/12. Weekly US export inspections of 62 million bushels were very strong once more, even if 2 million below last week they were 21 million up on this week a year ago.
Corn
Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.38 3/4, up 11 3/4 cents; Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.42 1/2, up 11 1/2 cents.
Fund buying was estimated at a net 8,000 contracts on the day. Safras said that 81% of the Brazilian summer corn crop has been planted versus 89% a year ago. Argentine corn plantings are estimated at 55% complete versus 49% last week and 68% this time last year. Safras pegged Brazil’s corn crop at 68.969 MMT versus 72.336 MMT in 2011/12. Weekly export inspections were poor once again at 14.350 million bushels.
They need to average 23.6 million to keep pace with the USDA's target of 1,150 million bushels of exports for the 2012/13 marketing year. Congestion and delays at Brazilian ports should help US exports. In Argentina "Widespread heavy rains of up to 2.5 inches are predicted in the grain belt in a wave of strong thunderstorms Wednesday-Thursday. It seems unlikely growers will get all their corn planted," say Martell Crop Projections. The USDA had Argentina down to produce 28 MMT of corn in their November WASDE report, that is starting to look ambitious.
Wheat
Dec 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.41 3/4, up 3 3/4 cents; Dec 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.76, unchanged; Dec 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.10 1/4, up 1/2 cent.
Funds were estimated to have been modest net buyers of around 1,000 Chicago wheat contracts on the day. Weekly export inspections of 11.102 million bushel just about beat last week's 10.5 million, but were still very poor. The trade is expecting a global switch in demand to US wheat at some point, but there is precious little sign of it yet. After the close the USDA cut US winter wheat crop conditions by 2 points to just 34% good/excellent versus 51% a year ago. Poor/very poor was up 2 points to 24%. An astonishing 60% of South Dakota's crop is now rated poor/very poor, along with 44% of Oklahoma's and 40% of Nebraska's wheat.
"Abundant rains will be critical across the Plains next spring, once the crop emerges from dormancy, to prevent significant problems and yield declines then. The poorly established crop will also be more vulnerable to winterkill," say MDA CropCast.

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