CropTec Show
Farminguk
29 August 2016 | Online since 2003
Scrutton Bland


29 April 2014 10:06:36 |

Ukraine tensions keep adding support to wheat market


Soycomplex
Beans closed mostly up, but off the highs. Weekly export inspections of 254,299 MT were better than 153,963 MT last week. That takes the cumulative 2013/14 total to date to 41.35 MMT versus a USDA target for the entire season of 43 MMT, and well ahead of less than 34 MMT this time a year ago. Safras e Mercado said that Brazil has now harvested 94% of their 2013/14 soybean crop.
Oil World estimated production there at a record 86.2 MMT versus 81.5 MMT a year ago. Bunge's CEO was quoted as saying that poor crushing margins in China are a short term problem and that things should improve in the next 2-3 months. Dry weather in Argentina is seen aiding the soybean harvest there this week - estimated at 42.5% done last week by the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange.
Production there is forecast in the region of 54 MMT versus 49.3 MMT a year ago. The USDA gave it's first estimate of the season for US 2014 soybean plantings, saying that 3% of the crop was in the ground nationally as of Sunday night, versus 4% for the 5-year average. That's in line with trade expectations. The southern states of LA, MS and AR are the most advanced as you might expect at 55%, 24% and 16% done respectively. May 14 Soybeans closed at $15.08 1/4, up 10 1/4 cents; Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $15.00, up 5 3/4 cents; May 14 Soybean Meal closed at $496.90, up $6.30; May 14 Soybean Oil closed at 42.62, down 30 points.
Corn
The market ended around a cent or so higher. Weekly export inspections of 1,156,332 MT today were down on 1,633,180 MT last week, but still respectable. The marketing year to date now stands at 28 MMT versus 12.2 MMT a year ago and the USDA forecast of 45 MMT for the full season. Prospects for Brazil's safrinha, or second crop, corn continue to look promising. Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s 2013/14 total corn crop at 73.9 MMT, up from a previous estimate of 71.2 MMT, although still down on the record 2012/13 crop of 82.1 MMT.
The Safras estimate is also significantly higher than the USDA's current 72 MMT forecast. The USDA said that 19% of the US 2014 corn crop was planted as of Sunday night. That was below the average trade guess of 21%, but within the range of trade estimates. Again, it's the southern states that are generally the most advanced, although they still lag, with TX on 64% complete (versus the 5-year average of 69%), NC is 60% done (versus 79% normally) and TN is 53% planted (versus 59% on average).
Despite all the talk of notable planting delays in the Midwest, IL is 32% done, up from on 5% a week ago and almost in line with the 33% "norm". Indiana, Iowa and Ohio however all lag the 5-year average pace by 18 points each. The USDA put corn emergence at 3% against 6% on average at this time. The Midwest weather outlook for the rest of the week isn't friendly - generally wet and cold. May 14 Corn closed at $5.07 3/4, up 3/4 cent; Jul 14 Corn closed at $5.13 3/4, up 1 cent.
Wheat
The market closed mostly a little firmer, having traded both sides in the overnight session. Weekly export inspections of 631,021 MT, up from 508,128 MT last week were supportive. The 2013/14 year to date total is now 28.4 MMT versus 24.6 MMT a year ago and a USDA forecast for full season exports of 31.5 MMT. Note though that the US wheat marketing year finishes at the end of May.
Increased tensions once again in Ukraine over the weekend keep adding support to the wheat market, as to do deteriorating US crop conditions. The USDA placed the US winter wheat crop at 33% good/excellent, down a point on a week ago, and the same as this time last year. The top producing state of Kansas is now only 21% good/excellent versus 24% a week ago. Oklahoma is 9% good/excellent against 11% last week. On a national level 34% of the crop is rated poor/very poor, up a point on last week.
Kansas poor/very poor is up 5 points from last week to 37%, Oklahoma is up 4 points in these bottom two categories to 65%. The USDA said that 18% of the crop is headed versus 9% last week and 26% on average. Spring wheat meanwhile is 18% planted, up from 10% a week ago but down on 26% normally. Spring wheat emergence is at 5% versus 9% for the 5-year average. A US wheat crop tour starts next week in the US Plains. The Philippines are in the market for 90,000 MT of optional origin feed wheat for July shipment. May 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $7.00 1/4, unchanged; May 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.83 1/4, up 7 1/2 cents; May 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.50 1/2, up 3 cents.

Download

0 Comment

loginuserlogo
Name

Please enter your name


Email

Please enter your email

Please enter valid email


Comment

Please enter your comment


Post Comment

Your comment has been submitted successfully. Please wait for admin approval.


Comments

No comments posted yet. Be the first to post a comment


Canada | 26 August 2016
Canadian beef exports to EU in limbo over E. coli dispute

If differences of opinion over food safety practices are not resolved, the big promises of a new European market for Canadian beef may be a pipe dream. The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreemen...


India | 26 August 2016
GM mustard clears hurdle in India but more remain

A government panel has cleared commercial use of what would be India's first genetically modified (GM) food crop, but politicians still have to give final approvals amid wide-spread public opposition....


USA | 26 August 2016
USDA buys $20 million in cheese from dairy farms

Moving to bolster dairy farmers who are struggling to cope with price declines, the Agriculture Department announced Tuesday it is spending $20 million - on 11 million pounds of cheese. A taxpayer ...


France | 26 August 2016
Lactalis talks with French milk producers end with no deal

A meeting between Europe's largest dairy group Lactalis and French milk producers requesting a rise in prices ended in a deadlock after 10 hours of negotiations, sources close to the talks said. ...


USA | 26 August 2016
California farmers turn to sewers for water

California's prolonged drought is forcing Central Valley farmers to scramble for water to irrigate crops. They have to be creative. One agency is even turning to a sewage plant to meet demand. Just...



Trending Now

Viewed
Discussed


Top stories you may have missed
FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

A new survey has revealed that the vast majority of British consumers belie...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

The British public are overwhelmingly in favour of keeping or strengthening...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

The sustained recovery of pig prices since the spring has come at a time wh...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

A World Trade Organisation (WTO) panel has declared the Russian import ban ...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

A new study has linked oilseed rape crops grown from neonicotinoid-treated ...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

Philip Hammond is to guarantee billions of pounds of UK government investme...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

Access to the foreign labour market is 'critical', according the chief exec...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

The Tenant Farmers Association has said the National Trust's vision for a p...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

Ulster farmers will 'not lie down and wave the white flag' when Brexit nego...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

The cost of rural crime to the UK economy costs £42.5 million a year, accor...


closeicon
Username
Password