AHDB market analyst, Arthur Marshall, discusses how keeping track of trends and market opportunities helps growers make crucial trading decisions.
Up-to-date and relevant market intelligence is vital for farming businesses.
“We’re at that pivotal point again in the potato farming calendar. Each week from now, more of 2015 crop will be utilised ex-store, and more of the 2016 crop will be planted in the ground,” says Mr Marshall.
Potato production is highly specialist, it’s a dynamic market, which makes it an interesting sector to follow. Thinking ahead to prospects 2016, weather conditions throughout the spring and summer months are critical to crop development.
“Last year is a good example,” says Mr Marshall. “While 2015, is the fifth lowest GB production year on record at 5.43MT, the estimated potato harvest was larger than anticipated due to good late summer growing conditions.”
Monitoring opportunities and changing supply situations is crucial. GB is seeing continued export growth for processed products such as crisps, where foreign demand is growing.
“Supply situations also continually change,” adds Mr Marshall. “Poland for example had a record low potato harvest in 2015, moving it from the 2nd to 3rd largest producer in the EU (behind Germany and The Netherlands) and creating opportunities as an export destination.”
Potato Weekly, AHDB’s stalwart market report, keeps growers informed and is received by over 2,000 recipients each Monday and summarises weekly price information for a range of market sectors.
“This month, Potato Weekly gets a makeover,” says Mr Marshall. “Not only will it include more emphasis on market analysis and commentary around prices, it will also reach levy-payers 3 days quicker than before, covering the actual trading week. Prices and trends will be in a much simpler and easier to read format to give you what you need, when you need it.”
With a greater emphasis on analysis and opportunities in the market, the new style of Potato Weekly will help AHDB levy payers identify, adapt to and take advantage of opportunities for growth.
“The current GB Free-buy ex-farm average (w/e 29 Jan) is £142.06/t compared to £79.66/t at the same week last year when supplies were more plentiful. Prices are always changing in the market – the GB weekly average price has varied from over £180/t to under £140/t already this season.”
“Average ex-farm prices for Maris Piper have been rising since the New Year, whereas average prices for packing whites have been steadier, indicating differences in supply and demand.”
“Around 59 per cent of 2015 production was in store at the end of November, but the rate at which these are moved and conditions in store will affect how prices develop.
“Cold stored stocks are currently keeping well, with low waste levels, but the high winter temperatures have been challenging to those with ambient stores. The revamped Potato Weekly will include more commentary on market drivers each week, keeping you up-to-date with not only price changes, but with what is driving those changes,” adds Mr Marshall.
An early or late start to the 2016 crop would also affect how prices develop in the latter part of the season.
“At the end of last month (January) activity started for 2016 crop with some planting underway Cornwall and on Anglesey. It’s slightly later than usual following saturated ground conditions but it’s still early days with the main GB planting activity usually getting underway from mid-march.”
As we head into the 2016/17 the message is simple concludes Arthur, “Make use of AHDB’s revamped Potato Weekly to know your market and grow for your market.”
