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28 September 2012 09:10:14 |

Weekly corn export sales 'fell well below modest expectations'

Nov 12 Soybeans closed at USD15.70 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents; Jan 13 Soybeans closed at USD15.71 1/4, down 3 cents; Oct 12 Soybean Meal closed at USD473.10, down USD2.00; Oct 12 Soybean Oil closed at 52.11, up 46 points.
Weekly export sales for beans came in at 799,500 MT, at the top end of the 650-800 TMT expected and a six week high. China took 189,700 MT of that along with 217,100 MT going to unknown. In addition, the USDA reported a further 110,000 MT sold to China under the daily reporting system. The average trade guess for tomorrow's USDA Sep 1st ending stocks report is 132 million bushels, with estimates ranging from 115–152 million. China once again sold all the 400 TMT of soybeans it offered up to domestic crushers at it's bi-weekly auction.
Dec 12 Corn closed at USD7.16 1/4, down 8 1/2 cents; Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.19 1/2, down 9 cents. Fund selling was estimated at 9,000 contracts on the day as corn fell to a 3-month low.
Weekly export sales of just 368 MT, yes less than four hundred tonnes, were appalling, falling well below even the modest trade expectation for sales of 150-250 TMT. There has only been one week with a lower net sales total since 1996, and that was ten weeks ago. Price does indeed seem to be rationing demand for corn. The average trade guess for US corn ending stocks in tomorrow's report is 1.166 billion bushels, with estimates ranging from 0.887-1.261 billion. The trade will be mindful of last year's bearish surprise for corn in this report.
Dec 12 CBOT Wheat closed at USD8.55 1/2, down 13 3/4 cents; Dec 12 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.78 1/4, down 16 1/4 cents; Dec 12 MGEX Wheat closed at USD9.14 1/4, down 15 1/4 cents. Fund selling was placed at 4,000 on CBOT wheat which slid to a 2 1/2 month low. Weekly export sales of 426,000 MT were in line with trade ideas of 400-550 TMT.
Wheat sales are chugging along, but at 39% of the USDA's full marketing year target lag the normal pace of 57%. The trade will be hoping for a stronger performance in the second half of the season, once cheaper Black Sea wheat dries up, although losing out to France and Romania in this week's Egyptian tender underlines the fact that there are also other cheaper sellers out there. MDA CropCast cut their Australian wheat production estimate by 2.4 MMT to 21.6 MMT, down 26% on last year. The average trade guess for Sep 1 wheat stocks in the USDA report tomorrow is 2.281 billion bushels.


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