The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) has released the first in a series of articles looking at the potential implications for the industry of the UK’s decision to leave the EU.
The first piece of analysis in the new ‘Horizon’ series examines five possible trading relationships between the UK and the EU post-Brexit.
It looks to existing trade arrangements for countries outside of the EU and outlines the pros and cons of each.
At his address at the AHDB Outlook Conference 2016, Alan Matthews, Professor of European Agricultural Policies at Trinity College Dublin, identified five examples of alternatives to full EU membership, three of which already exist within Europe.
It is an unprecedented event for a Member State to leave the EU. The country-specific models set out have emerged in the context of a historical timeframe of EU evolvement and therefore cannot be viewed by the UK as off-the-peg solutions.
The 'Norway' option
Tariff-free access to the EU’s Single Market but freedom to control own external trade
policy
• Inside the Single Market, although some agricultural products are exceptions
• Outside the EU Customs Union
• Operate own external trade policy
• Subject to most EU rules and regulations for exports into the EU
The 'Swiss' option
Bilateral agreements giving greater autonomy than Member States or Norway on adopting EU rules and regulations but compliance to maintain trade links
• Outside the Single Market
• Outside the EU Customs Union
• Free trade agreements with individual EU Member States
• Compliance with many EU rules and regulations
The 'Turkish' option
A stripped-back Customs Union operating outside the EU framework of treaties and institutions
• Outside the full Single Market
• Inside the EU Customs Union for some goods
• Free from most EU rules and regulations
The US/Canada option
Seek trade agreements tailored to national interests
• Complete breakaway from EU
• UK sovereignty over policy and regulation
The 'WTO' option
Rely on the multilateral trading system through UK membership of the World Trade
Organisation (WTO) rather than negotiating own agreements
'Brink of a new era' for UK agriculture
Further pieces of analysis will be released on topics such as trade with non-EU countries, labour and subsidies in the coming weeks, to provide AHDB levy payers with a bank of independent resources on key questions raised by the referendum result.
Once Article 50 is triggered and negotiations start, AHDB’s Market Intelligence team will provide updated analysis, as and when information emerges from the process.
David Swales, AHDB Head of Strategic Insight, said: "There is a huge thirst for knowledge out there as we stand on the brink of a new era for UK agriculture.
"Obviously at this stage we can’t give any definitive answers but we can paint a picture of what the future may look like for our levy payers.
"Horizon will sit alongside our sector Market Intelligence offering, which will continue to keep the industry informed on the short term impacts on commodities and inputs markets."
AHDB is a statutory levy board, funded by farmers, growers and others in the supply chain.
Its purpose is to equip levy payers with independent, evidence-based information and tools to grow, become more competitive and sustainable.
