Syngenta UK
Farminguk
27 August 2016 | Online since 2003
OvoConcept


31 March 2014 08:26:04 |

Bullish poultry market conditions turning bearish


With the notable exception of the US, bullish poultry market conditions are turning bearish due to recent grain price hikes caused by turmoil in Ukraine and El Niño-related worries, according to Rabobank’s Poultry Quarterly Q1.
Abrupt increases in feed prices (up 10%-15% on earlier expectations), avian influenza (AI) outbreaks in China and a weaker Asian economy are expected to affect margins in Q2.
“The effect on companies hinges on their regional market balance and longer term forward-hedging,” explained Rabobank analyst Nan-Dirk Mulder. “A slowdown in global trade volumes and lower product prices, especially for leg quarters, will affect companies in international trade and lead to shifts in global trade streams. Brazil is likely to be affected the most, while Thailand is likely to benefit due to its recent return in the Japanese raw chicken market.”
Additional major shifts in trade streams are expected this coming quarter, including pending anti-dumping duties on European Union poultry trade in South Africa, a new temporary free trade agreement granting Ukraine access to the EU market via quotas, and the potential return of exports from the United States to Chinese markets.
These developments, taking place under weak global trade conditions in a traditionally weak season for chicken meat, could all have a large impact on global poultry trade.
Regional Updates:
· United States: In the midst of constrained supplies of other competing animal proteins, due to porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus in pork and a shrinking US beef supply, another very profitable year is forecast for the US chicken industry.
· European Union: Rabobank anticipated a further reduction in margins as South Africa (the EU’s biggest export market) considers anti-dumping duties and the EU considers opening its markets to Ukraine in the short term.
· China: The Chinese poultry industry suffered big losses after being hit by an outbreak of AI for the second time in less than a year. The disease has negatively impacted demand, as consumers are concerned whether poultry is safe.
· Brazil: Despite a good grain harvest outlook, and improving local demand, a challenging export market will be the key wildcard in 2014.
· Russia: Russia continued to struggle with oversupply problems. Exports continued to grow but remain small. High competing protein prices and the depreciating rouble should support margins.
· Rest of Asia: Indian industry performance is recovering from oversupply, but Japanese market conditions are bullish. The recent opening of Japan for Thai raw chicken continues to affect trade streams.

Download

0 Comment

loginuserlogo
Name

Please enter your name


Email

Please enter your email

Please enter valid email


Comment

Please enter your comment


Post Comment

Your comment has been submitted successfully. Please wait for admin approval.


Comments

No comments posted yet. Be the first to post a comment


Canada | 26 August 2016
Canadian beef exports to EU in limbo over E. coli dispute

If differences of opinion over food safety practices are not resolved, the big promises of a new European market for Canadian beef may be a pipe dream. The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreemen...


India | 26 August 2016
GM mustard clears hurdle in India but more remain

A government panel has cleared commercial use of what would be India's first genetically modified (GM) food crop, but politicians still have to give final approvals amid wide-spread public opposition....


USA | 26 August 2016
USDA buys $20 million in cheese from dairy farms

Moving to bolster dairy farmers who are struggling to cope with price declines, the Agriculture Department announced Tuesday it is spending $20 million - on 11 million pounds of cheese. A taxpayer ...


France | 26 August 2016
Lactalis talks with French milk producers end with no deal

A meeting between Europe's largest dairy group Lactalis and French milk producers requesting a rise in prices ended in a deadlock after 10 hours of negotiations, sources close to the talks said. ...


USA | 26 August 2016
California farmers turn to sewers for water

California's prolonged drought is forcing Central Valley farmers to scramble for water to irrigate crops. They have to be creative. One agency is even turning to a sewage plant to meet demand. Just...



Trending Now

Viewed
Discussed


Top stories you may have missed
FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

The British public are overwhelmingly in favour of keeping or strengthening...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

The sustained recovery of pig prices since the spring has come at a time wh...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

A World Trade Organisation (WTO) panel has declared the Russian import ban ...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

A new study has linked oilseed rape crops grown from neonicotinoid-treated ...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

Philip Hammond is to guarantee billions of pounds of UK government investme...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

Access to the foreign labour market is 'critical', according the chief exec...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

The Tenant Farmers Association has said the National Trust's vision for a p...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

Ulster farmers will 'not lie down and wave the white flag' when Brexit nego...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

The cost of rural crime to the UK economy costs £42.5 million a year, accor...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

A young farmers club member from Oxfordshire has created a petition on the ...


closeicon
Username
Password