14-05-2014 09:13 AM | Arable, Cereal, Crops, Market Reports, News

Canadian wheat areas 'set to see better weather'; Corn market ends higher



Soycomplex

Beans finished higher in "Turnaround Tuesday" style, with tight and technical old crop the greatest beneficiary. Prospects for significantly lower prices going forward linger though. A Bloomberg survey placed China's 2013/14 soybean imports at 66.0 MMT versus Friday's USDA estimate of 69.0 MMT. It is reported that China sold 276,168 MT of the 300,000 MT of beans offered up at auction today, which is more than expected. A Bloomberg report last week suggested that demand would be minimal due to price, and the fact that the beans on offer were several years old.


The USDA announced 116,000 MT of meal sold to Thailand for 2014/15 delivery. Dr Cordonnier apparently held pat with his forecast for 2014 US soybean yields at 44-45 bushels/acre. He has the Brazilian 2013/14 bean crop at 86.5 MMT, unchanged from his previous estimate. He increased his forecast for Argentina by 1 MMT from previously to 55 MMT. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange increased their forecast for the Argentine soybean crop to a record 55.5 MMT. Harvesting is 63.9% complete, down 15.4 points on a year ago as rain interrupts farmer activity, they said. There talk of further Brazilian soybean sales to the US. May 14 Soybeans closed at $15.02 3/4, up 19 cents; Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $14.84 1/4, up 19 cents; May 14 Soybean Meal closed at $497.60, up $8.10; May 14 Soybean Oil closed at 41.17, up 39 points. May contracts go off the board tomorrow.

Corn


The corn market ended 2-5 cents higher. Again the largest gains were at front end, ahead of the expiry of the May 14 contract tomorrow. The USDA announced 126,000 MT of corn sold to South Korea for 2013/14 delivery. APK Inform estimated the Russian 2014 corn crop at 11.3 MMT versus Friday's USDA suggestion of 12.5 MMT. The Russian Ministry said that corn planting is 69.4% complete on 1.8 million hectares.


The Ukraine Ministry said that corn planting there is 86% complete on 4.44 million hectares. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange held steady on their 2013/14 Argentine corn production forecast at 24 MMT. They said that harvesting is 28.3% complete, 12 points down on a year ago. Safras e Mercado said that 90.4% of Brazil’s first corn crop has been harvested. Dr Cordonnier estimated 2014 US corn yields at 163-165 bu/acre, unchanged from his previous forecast and versus 158.8 bu/acre in 2013. He estimated the 2013/14 Brazilian corn crop at 73.5 MMT versus a previous estimate of 72.0 MMT. He estimated the 2013/14 Argentine corn crop at 24.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 23.5 MMT. The French Farm Ministry estimated the 2014 corn area there at 1.67 million hectares, down 5.5% from a year ago. MARS estimated the EU-28 2014/15 corn yield at 7.08 MT/ha, up from a previous estimate of 7.03 MT/ha, up 5.9% from a year ago and up 3.5% versus the five year average. South Korea bought 120,000 MT of corn from the US, South America or South Africa for Nov-Dec shipment. Taiwan bought 60,000 MT of Brazilian corn for July-Aug shipment. May 14 Corn closed at $5.02 3/4, up 5 1/4 cents; Jul 14 Corn closed at $5.02 1/4, up 2 3/4 cents.

Wheat

The wheat market closed mixed. Japan are holding their regular weekly tender for 97,780 MT of food wheat from the US and Australia for July shipment. The results are expected Thursday. Taiwan bought 110,450 MT of US milling wheat for July–Aug shipment. MARS estimated EU-28 2014/15 soft wheat yields at 5.79 MT/ha versus a previous estimate of 5.73 MT/ha.


That's down 0.6% from a year ago but up 3.8% versus the five year average. Canadian wheat areas are finally set to see better weather. "Saskatchewan is expected to warm up this week permitting fieldwork for spring wheat planting to begin in earnest. This is Canada's largest wheat province, growing approximately 48% of hard red spring wheat," said Martell Crop Projections. "Saskatchewan producers report that 30% of the province has surplus topsoil moisture, 67% adequate and 3% short in an early May report. Strong drying has developed in the past week, allowing farmers to begin fieldwork in scattered areas. Weather conditions are set to improve, trending warmer in the coming week. The jet stream is expected to build up a warm ridge of high pressure over western North America influencing the weather in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

This would be ideal for warming and drying fields, and advancing wheat planting. Saskatchewan daily maximum temperatures would rise into the low-mid 60s F and 10 degrees F higher than presently. Night minimum temperatures would rise into the low 40s F and 10 degrees F warmer than presently. The warming trend would begin tomorrow persisting for the balance of the week," they said. Jul 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $7.09 1/2, down 5 cents; Jul 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $8.24, up 1/4 of a cent; Jul 14 MGE Wheat closed at $7.94 3/4, up 4 cents.

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