28 March 2015 | Online since 2003



China attempt to auction off state-owned corn stocks


Soycomplex

Beans closed lower in what looks like consolidation ahead of the long weekend. The market will also only operate a holiday-shortened session tomorrow, so expect volumes to be light. Fund money was estimated to have trimmed a further 2,000 contracts off their rapidly reducing long holding in beans. We won't now know exactly where they stand until Monday, as the usual Friday Commitment of Traders report is delayed until then. China sold only 106,000 MT of the 355,000 MT of soybean reserves offered up at auction yesterday.


There are some reports suggesting that stocks at the ports are high, which may limit imports in the short-term. There's also market talk that the Chinese are looking to resell/wash out Brazilian bean purchases for August shipment. They may not find US buyers quite so keen to book that position as their own harvest will be underway in the south by then. Taiwan Sugar Corp are said to be seeking 15,000 MT of US beans for Aug shipment. Rabobank forecast CBOT soybean prices at $11.20 in the final quarter of 2014. Informa are due out tomorrow with their US and world production estimates. Last time they gave us a US soybean yield of 44.5 bu/acre, and a crop of 3.591 billion bushels. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 0-150,000 MT of old crop and 300,000-500,000 MT of new crop. Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $13.92 1/2, down 7 1/2 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $11.41 1/2, down 6 cents; Jul 14 Soybean Meal closed at $452.30, down $3.80; Jul 14 Soybean Oil closed at 38.47, down 40 points.

Corn

The corn market ended around 4 cents lower, with the new crop Dec 14 future setting a lifetime contract low and looks like it may be setting it's sights on testing the $4/bu mark. I would imagine that there would be good buying interest if it did fall below that level. South Korea Kocopia bought 55,000 MT of corn, thought likely to be of US or South American origin, for Nov shipment. China continue to attempt to auction off large volumes of state-owned corn stocks.


A report on Reuters suggested that the Chinese government may decide to scrap its corn stockpiling scheme by as early as next year. Ukraine said that it had exported a record 20.1 MMT of corn in 2013/14. Russia said that it had also exported a record volume, in excess of 4 MMT. Informa are due out tomorrow with their latest US and world production numbers. Last month they estimated 2014 US corn yields at 163.5 bu/acre, producing a crop of 13.766 billion bushels. Rabobank forecast Chicago corn prices to fall to a very precise $4.07/bu in the final quarter of 2014. The Energy Dept reported US ethanol production at 953k barrels/day last week, up 15k bpd from the previous week. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are around 500-800,000 MT for both crop years combined. Fund selling in corn was estimated at a net 5-6,000 lots on the day. That would place them dumping around 30,000 contracts for the week so far. Jul 14 Corn closed at $4.18 1/2, down 4 1/4 cents; Dec 14 Corn closed at $4.18, down 4 3/4 cents.

Wheat

The wheat market closed all over the place, from a few cents higher in Chicago to 17 cents lower in Kansas. The wheat harvest is now in full swing in Kansas, the leading wheat producing state in the US. Yields are highly variable, but generally disappointing. Nevertheless, it was the Kansas wheat market that fell the hardest today, in what looks like "buy the rumour, sell the fact" trade. Unwinding of long Kansas, short Chicago wheat may also have been a feature.


There's talk that Brazil may have bought up to 1.0 MMT of wheat since the government cut non-Mercosur wheat import taxes to 0% - much of that is likely to be US sourced. Ukraine said that they'd exported 9.4 MMT of wheat in 2013/14. Russia's final exports are likely to be around 25.5 MMT. Early Russian wheat yields from the 2014 harvest are said to be averaging 3.88 MT/ha, a more than 10% increase on this time last year. This of course is winter wheat, spring wheat yields may not produce such impressive year-on-year results. After a spate of recent purchases, Egypt’s supplies minister said that the country has enough wheat supply to meet demand for the next 6 months, but then again they always say that. Jordan cancelled a tender for 100,000 MT of optional origin hard milling wheat for Dec-Jan shipment. Rabobank forecast Chicago wheat prices at $5.50/bu in the final quarter of the year. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 300-450,000 MT. Jul 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.61 3/4, up 2 cents; Jul 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.83, down 17 cents; Jul 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.51 3/4, down 5 1/2 cents.

Download



Comments


No comments posted yet. Be the first to post a comment

To post comment without approval login or register

Display name

Please enter your name

Email (optional)
Comment

Please enter your comment

Post Comment

Your comment submitted successfully.Please wait for admin approval.

Some error on your process.Please try one more time.



Jobs


25 March 2015
Service Controller (Plant)
Service Supervisor, Plant, HGV, Construction, agriculture, depot, engineer, progression, training, hire, NVQ, HND, HNC, fleet...

12 March 2015
Agriculture Apprentice
Bowgyheere Farm is a 200 acre family run dairy farm in the heart of Ludgvan, Penzance. Maintaining the Farm. Also transport w...

19 March 2015
Apprentice Customer Service
Ellers Farm House. Due to the nature of the business you must be willing to take on any additional tasks that may be necessar...

10 March 2015
6 month Temporary Infant Nanny Required ASAP
The boys both very content and happy sociable boys who have reflux and difficulty feeding, with an intolerance to dairy, with...

20 March 2015
Lecturer Animal Studies
Lecturer Animal Studies x 1 We are looking for a talented, highly motivated and enthusiastic individual to join our experienc...




Top stories you may have missed
23 March 2015 | Cattle

UK butchers face difficulties to recruit...

Butchers in the UK are losing a generation through lack of training opportu...


20 March 2015 | Arable

Dust - the secret fertiliser?

NASA research has revealed how dust blown from the Sahara desert helps supp...


19 March 2015 | Arable

The Budget 2015: A Farmer's Budget?

“In the run up to the Budget 2015 most commentators were predicting that th...


17 March 2015 | News

UK's first floating solar power system l...

The UK’s first fully operational floating solar panel system has been unvei...


13 March 2015 | Animal Health

Labour and Conservatives clash over badg...

Axing the badger cull in England and Wales will save more than £120 million...


12 March 2015 | News

Solar could be cheapest energy source by...

By 2025, solar power could become one of the cheapest forms of energy in ma...


11 March 2015 | Finance

English buyers turn their attention to S...

Demand for Scottish farm land remains strong and continues to be better val...


9 March 2015 | Cattle

2020 vision for the Welsh red meat indus...

The Welsh red meat industry should aim to increase sales by at least 34 per...


6 March 2015 | News

MP raises egg industry concerns on trans...

Fears about the impact that a proposed transatlantic trade agreement could ...


Stay safe and legal when flying drones

The use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and Unmanned Aircraft Systems - or dron...