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15 January 2014 04:30:08 |

Corn market posts modest gains; Egypt booking US wheat

Beans closed sharply higher, particularly on front month Jan 14 which goes off the board tomorrow. A hot and dry forecast for Argentina in the week ahead was supportive. The Argentine Ministry said that 86% of the 2013/14 soybean crop is sown versus 90% a year ago. Weekly export inspections continue to indicate that global soybean demand hasn't switched to Brazil just yet. These came in at 59.381 million bushels versus the expected 45-50 million. In addition, the USDA reported the sale of 140,000 MT of US soybeans for delivery to unknown in the 2013/14 marketing year. IMEA said on Friday that in Brazil's Mato Grosso the 2013/14 soybean harvest is 1.9% complete versus 1% a year ago. Oil World estimated Argentina’s Jan – Nov 2013 soybean crush at 35.0 MMT versus 35.2 MMT a year previously.
China’s Customs Dept. said that the country imported 7.4 MMT of beans in December versus 6.03 MMT in November. They said that China had therefore imported 63.38 MMT of soybeans in 2013, up 8.6% from 2012. JCI Intelligence estimated China’s 2013/14 bean imports at 66.5 MMT, up 11% from a year ago. Chinese New Year begins at the end of the month, which will curtail imports and purchases. The NOPA December crush report comes out on Wednesday. Jan 14 Soybeans closed at $13.26 3/4, up 23 cents; Mar 14 Soybeans closed at $12.94 1/4, up 15 3/4 cents; Jan 14 Soybean Meal closed at $446.90, up $11.70; Jan 14 Soybean Oil closed at 37.57, down 38 points.
The corn market posted modest gains in light follow through trade following Friday night's sharp rebound. Argentine weather is supportive, with the Ministry there saying that the 2013/14 corn crop is 82% planted versus 88% a year ago. The Argentine Ministry said that it wouldn't decide on the volume of corn allowed for export in 2013/14 until the crop there was fully planted. Brazilian weather is generally favourable. South Korea's NOFI were reported to have bought 137,000 MT of US corn originally destined for China. China re-approved various GMO corn varieties for import, but crucially the list didn't include Syngenta's currently disputed MIR 162 variety.
The Ukraine Ministry said that the country had exported 10.7 MMT of corn so far this marketing year. The French government said that France had exported 1.9 MMT of corn between July – November 2013 versus 2.0 MMT a year previously. Weekly US corn export inspections came in at 20.902 million bushels, a little below the expected 22-27 million. Cumulative US corn export inspections are now 181% of where they were a year ago. China was reported as buying 120 TMT of US sorghum, was this a corn replacement? Friday's surprise news from the USDA that winter wheat plantings were significantly lower than expected may mean that a bit more corn might get planted in the spring in the US than the market is currently expecting. The USDA will report on early thoughts on spring plantings at next month's Outlook Forum. Mar 14 Corn closed at $4.34 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents; May 14 Corn closed at $4.42 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents.
The wheat market was mixed across the three exchanges, with Kansas displaying the most weakness. Egypt booking US wheat, it's first such purchase of the season, over the weekend was supportive. US wheat was priced $20 under French origin on an FOB basis, also beating Russian wheat by more than $28, German origin by $21 and was $30 beneath Romanian wheat. Iran bought 50,000 MT of wheat from Kazakhstan. Jordan is back in the market tendering for 100 TMT of wheat having cancelled a similar tender last week.
Agritel said that it's forecast to get much colder in the FSU this week, with temperatures dropping to -10C in Kiev and -18C in Moscow by the weekend. Lack of snow cover here raises talk of winterkill possibilities. The Argentine Ministry said that the wheat harvest was complete, they raised their production estimate from 9.0 MMT to 9.2 MMT. There's talk that a decision on the volume of wheat that they will allow for export will be decided upon within the next 24 hours. Existing sales to Brazil have been held up pending clearance.
There's talk that Brazilian millers bought 2-6 cargoes of US wheat within the past few days. The French government said France had exported 5.6 MMT of wheat between July – November 2013 versus 4.9 MMT a year ago. Weekly export inspections for US wheat came in at 25.19 million bushels, which was better than the expected 13-18 million. Mar 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.73 1/2, up 4 1/2 cents; Mar 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.19 3/4, down 6 1/4 cents; Mar 14 MGEX Wheat is at $6.17 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents.


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