29 January 2015 | Online since 2003



Corn market slumps lower on fund selling


Soycomplex

Beans closed with small gains, as the market brushed off talk that China had resold a few cargoes of Brazilian beans to the US. Weekly export inspections came in at the top end of trade estimations at 940 TMT. The USDA announced 110,000 MT of US meal sold to unknown for 2014/15 shipment. Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s soybean crop at 86.14 MMT versus last week's CONAB estimate of 85.4 MMT.


They said that 84% of the Mato Grosso bean crop has been harvested versus 87% a year ago and 74% on average at this time. AgRural said Brazil’s bean harvest is 59% complete versus 49% a week ago and 54% a year ago. They estimated Brazil’s bean crop at 86.0 MMT.

Brazil was mostly dry over the weekend, whilst heavy rains were reported in Argentina. The NOPA crush for February continues to show strong domestic demand for US beans, coming in at 141.6 million bushels versus trade expectation for a figure of around 140.9 million bushels and the 136.322 million crushed in February 2013. May 14 Soybeans closed at $13.91 3/4, up 3 1/4 cents; Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $13.75 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents; May 14 Soybean Meal closed at $446.60, up $2.60; May 14 Soybean Oil closed at 41.89, down 40 points.

Corn

The corn market slumped lower on fund selling (estimated at around 5,000 lots on the day). Weekly export inspections of 977 TMT were in line with trade estimations, and the USDA announced 107,400 MT of US corn sold to Mexico for 2013/14 shipment. Safras e Mercado said Brazil’s summer corn crop is 57% harvested versus 44% a year ago.


They said that Brazil’s winter corn crop is 85% planted versus 88% a year ago, and estimated Brazil’s 2013/14 total corn crop at 71.1 MMT versus 82.1 MMT a year ago. The Argentine corn harvest is 4% complete versus 12% this time a year ago, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. They held their Argentine production estimate unchanged at 23.5 MMT. Ukraine were said to have shipped around 700 TMT of corn last week, and nearly 16 MMT so far this season. Russia have exported almost 2.8 MMT of corn so far in 2013/14.

SovEcon estimated Russia’s 2013/14 corn exports at 3.8 MMT versus a previous estimate of 3.5 MMT. China were said to have bought 50 TMT of Ukraine corn over the weekend. Due to political turmoil in Ukraine one analysis group, UCAB, said that the country's grain output could fall by around 11.0 MMT in 2014 due to a sharp decrease in planting area caused by a shortage of funds. Much of that is likely to be corn. Texas corn is 15% planted versus 40% this time last year and the 31% average pace. May 14 Corn closed at $4.79, down 7 cents; Jul 14 Corn closed at $4.84, down 6 1/2 cents.

Wheat

The wheat market fell on what looked like "buy the rumour, sell the fact" trade in relation to weekend developments in Ukraine. Maybe the trade feels that wheat has enough of a "risk" premium built in after the recent sharp rally? Weekly export inspections came in at 496 TMT, which was in line with expectations, if not spectacular versus 652,806 MT in the same week a year ago. Russia said that it had exported 19.355 MMT of grains so far this season, including 14.293 MMT of wheat.


SovEcon estimated Russia’s 2013/14 grain exports at 24.0-24.4 MMT versus a previous estimate of 23.1 MMT. Russia seem to be picking up extra business due to the weak rouble, and now that the government have abandoned their intervention purchase program. SovEcon estimated Russia’s 2013/14 wheat exports at 17.4-17.8 MMT versus a previous estimate of 16.5 MMT. Kazakhstan said that they'd exported 418,400 MT of wheat in January, up 53.9% from a year ago. Egypt’s government said that they intend to buy 4 MMT of local wheat this year.

Their harvest should be underway in about a month's time. Egypt's GASC issued a late tender for wheat for Apr 11-20 shipment. I'd expect Russia to feature highly in that one when the results come out tomorrow. China are to auction 878,300 MT of government-owned wheat stocks on Wednesday. After the close Texas wheat good/excellent was only rated at 13% versus 28% a week ago. Oklahoma good/excellent was cut to 18% from 22% a week ago. May 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.74 1/2, down 12 3/4 cents; May 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.43 1/2, down 8 cents; May 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.24 1/4, down 9 3/4 cents.

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