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29 July 2014 10:01:16|

Dry weather damage to Australian wheat; corn market closes higher

Beans closed with strong gains. Weekly soybean export inspections came in at 112,345 MT versus 97,160 MT last week. That takes the 2013/14 marketing year total to date to over 43 MMT versus 35.3 MMT a year ago. In addition the USDA reported 486,000 MT of new crop beans sold to China, split 66,000 MT optional origin and 420,000 MT of US origin.
There's talk of an Argentine debt default for the second time in 12 years on Thursday. That would potentially put the peso under more pressure, increase inflation even further, and could lead to more "hoarding" of soybeans by Argentine farmers. After the close the USDA cut soybean crop ratings by 2 percentage points in the good/excellent category to 71%. The trade was expecting ratings to be unchanged. That's still better than 63% a year ago though. They said that 38% of the crop is setting pods, up from 19% a week ago and compared to the 5-year average of 31%. They said that 76% of the crop is blooming versus the 5-year average of 72%. Aug 14 Soybeans closed at $12.36 1/2, up 24 1/4 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $11.07 3/4, up 24 1/4 cents; Aug 14 Soybean Meal closed at $402.80, up $4.80; Aug 14 Soybean Oil closed at 36.52, up 43 points.
The corn market closed around 4-5 cents higher. Weekly export inspections came in at 805,365 MT, down from 941,977 MT the previous week, and a bit below expectations of 850 TMT to 1 MMT. The 2013/14 marketing year to date total is now 41.8 MT.
Taiwan are tendering for 60,000 MT of US or South American corn for Sept-Oct shipment. Chinese analysts estimated their 2014 corn crop at 223.0 MMT, up 2.1% from a year ago. The country's hard line stance on MIR 162 appears to have effectively barred US DDGs from entering the country and will also at the very least hinder US corn export prospects to China. The USDA cut corn crop ratings by one point to 75% good/excellent versus trade expectations of unchanged. That's far from a disaster and much better than 63% this time last year. They said that 78% of the crop is silking versus 56% a week ago, 67% this time last year and 75% for the 5-year average. They said that 17% of the crop is at the dough stage versus 8% a year ago and 16% for the 5-year average. "The forecast continues very cool, with the 7-day outlook calling for temperatures 7-10 F below average in Midwest corn," said Martell Crop Projections. However the forecast is also mostly dry, which could provide some threat, particularly for corn yet to pollinate when moisture needs are high, they add. Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.67 3/4, up 4 3/4 cents; Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.76 3/4, up 5 cents.
The wheat market closed lower across the three exchanges. Weekly export inspections came in at 395,963 MT, down from 527,633 MT the previous week, and a bit below expectations of 400-550 TMT. That takes the marketing year to date total to 3.64 MMT versus 5.12 MMT a year ago at this time. The USDA announced 101,000 MT of US wheat sold to Nigeria under the daily reporting system.
Taiwan are tendering for 84,800 MT of US milling wheat for Sept-Oct shipment. IKAR estimated Russia’s 2014 wheat crop at 57.5 MMT versus a previous estimate of 56.3 MMT. That's just about the highest estimate in the ring so far. Wheat harvesting there is said to be 36% complete, producing 33.2 MMT to date. There's some talk of possible dry weather damage to wheat in northern New South Wales and Queensland. Other parts of Australia's wheat growing belt are said to be experiencing largely favourable conditions though. The USDA reported the 2014 US winter wheat harvest at 83% complete, up from 75% a week ago and a bit better than the 5-year average of 80% done at this time. Spring wheat crop prospects remain favourable. The USDA held steady with their ratings for that crop at 70% good/excellent versus 68% this time last year. They said that 93% of the crop was headed, up from 84% a week ago and exactly in line with last year and the 5-year average. Sep 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.34 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents; Sep 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.25 1/2, down 5 3/4 cents; Sep 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.21 1/4, down 6 1/2 cents.


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