Mole Valley Farmers
Farminguk
24 August 2016 | Online since 2003
OvoConcept


2 May 2014 08:14:56 |

EU grain market report - 2nd May 2014


French markets were closed today for the May Day holiday, along with much of the rest of the world, although London and Chicago stumbled on. That brought thin trade, but not the general lack of movement that you might expect.
Yet again though, on a day like this fresh news was at something of a premium.
It took until lunchtime to register it's first trade, but the day ended with May 14 London wheat down GBP1.95/tonne to GBP166.50/tonne, and with new crop Nov 14 London wheat closing GBP0.80/tonne lower at GBP157.25/tonne after the Chicago daytime session took a turn for the worst in afternoon trade.
The US wheat crop is looking pretty sick in Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas. There is little doubting that. However, the market should maybe consider just how important that really is in the overall scheme of things for wheat.
The US produced "only" 8% of the global wheat crop last year (as opposed to 36% of the world's corn), with Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas accounting for a combined 23% of total 2013/14 US all wheat production.
Let's say we peg production across the board in those three states down by 20% this year, that "only" equates to a reduction in world supplies of less than 3 MMT for 2014/15. What's that between friends? A return to "normal" in little old Blighty alone should redress that imbalance come harvest time.
Note too, that although MDA CropCast trimmed their forecast for the US wheat crop today by 0.5 MMT from last week, output of 57 MMT is only down 1.7 MMT on last year - that's less than the production of Tunisia.
Tunisia incidentally yesterday said that they are expecting this year's grain harvest to total 2.2 MMT, a sharp more than 80% rise on output last year, after decent rains during grain filling.
In other news, Brussels announced last night that they'd issued 448 TMT of soft wheat export licences this past week, bringing the year to date total to a record 25.1 MMT. As wheat continues to leave however, corn keeps coming in to replace it. Corn import licences almost matched those for wheat exports, totalling 420 TMT this week.
Meanwhile the EU also awarded the first batch of duty free wheat imports to Ukraine, under a new deal that affords Kiev preferential treatment to export us 950 TMT of wheat/flour tariff-free between now and the end of October.
On the European crop front, things are looking promising. "Satellite imagery reveals strong improvement in crop vegetation between April 1 and month end in Europe’s three top wheat nations of France, Germany and United Kingdom. Increased rainfall and moderating temperatures have contributed to the better vegetation. Warm sunny days and cool nights in Western Europe have also been beneficial for developing wheat the past 2 weeks," say Martell Crop Projections.
"Generous rainfall has not been confined to Western Europe. Strong showers have also developed recently in Eastern Europe, improving the wheat potential in Poland, Romania and Bulgaria too," they added.
In an unusual move, Syria are tendering to sell 200 TMT of wheat to Iran, despite the fact that the former probably need it more than the latter. I wonder what the Syrian government will spend the money on? Sanitation, health, education? I somehow suspect not.

Download

0 Comment

loginuserlogo
Name

Please enter your name


Email

Please enter your email

Please enter valid email


Comment

Please enter your comment


Post Comment

Your comment has been submitted successfully. Please wait for admin approval.


Comments

No comments posted yet. Be the first to post a comment


Canada | 24 August 2016
Canadian farmers see bumper wheat crop as rain curbs quality

Canada’s wheat production will rise more than expected this year, adding to a global glut of the grain, while canola output will probably decrease, according to a government report. Wheat output wi...


France | 24 August 2016
Lactalis ready to discuss milk prices with angry French farmers

Europe's largest dairy producer, Lactalis, said on Tuesday it was ready to renegotiate milk prices paid to producers after hundreds of farmers protested outside its headquarters in northwestern France...


Japan | 24 August 2016
Is Japan's wagyu beef bubble bound to burst?

Bad news for high-end beef lovers: Japan’s Wagyu bubble could be on the verge of bursting. Prized Wagyu calves are currently fetching wildly inflated prices, says Nikkei Asian Review, and "If sky-high...


USA | 24 August 2016
Grassley to hold hearing on agriculture mergers next month

Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley said Tuesday he will hold a hearing next month to discuss a wave of consolidation among seed and chemical producers, including the merger of Dow and DuPont. The chairman of...


Kenya | 24 August 2016
Should agriculture be a required school subject?

Despite the grumbling of many frustrated American school kids taking math tests, the broad subjects required in public schools each have firm arguments for their respective inclusion. But that does...



Trending Now

Viewed
Discussed


Top stories you may have missed
FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

The sustained recovery of pig prices since the spring has come at a time wh...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

A World Trade Organisation (WTO) panel has declared the Russian import ban ...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

A new study has linked oilseed rape crops grown from neonicotinoid-treated ...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

Philip Hammond is to guarantee billions of pounds of UK government investme...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

Access to the foreign labour market is 'critical', according the chief exec...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

The Tenant Farmers Association has said the National Trust's vision for a p...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

Ulster farmers will 'not lie down and wave the white flag' when Brexit nego...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

The cost of rural crime to the UK economy costs £42.5 million a year, accor...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

A young farmers club member from Oxfordshire has created a petition on the ...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

The farming sector has reacted negatively to a proposal to reintroduce the ...


closeicon
Username
Password