30 January 2015 | Online since 2003



Fund money exits commodities over fiscal cliff and Israel tensions


EU grains closed firmer, consolidating from recent losses with Nov 12 London wheat up GBP1.75/tonne to GBP216.75/tonne, May 13 up GBP1.00/tonne to GBP221.75/tonne and new crop Nov 13 GBP0.25/tonne steadier at GBP187.75/tonne. Jan 13 Paris milling wheat added EUR1.00/tonne to close at EUR270.25/tonne.

Fund money continues to exit commodities in general as we nervously approach year end against a backdrop of concerns over the US "fiscal cliff" and escalating tensions in the Middle East.

The net long position held by the Managed Money in the 5 major Ag markets has dropped 285,000 contracts (over 43%) to 364,000 since Sep 18th, says Tregg Cronin of CHS Hedging, Inc.

The American wheat market snapped a run of six straight declines, adding a bit of support to European wheat. The trade is expecting Egypt to use the recent decline in prices as a buying opportunity and tender for wheat this week, and that US wheat could find itself competitively priced after spending 2012/13 thus far in the Egyptian wilderness.

Ukraine slightly confusingly said that it had "no plans to restrict wheat exports" despite Egypt saying last week that it had received official notification that such measures were to be introduced on Dec 1st.

This seems to have more to do with appeasing the WTO than anything else. Regardless of what the Ukraine government officially says, it seems pretty clear that there will be no more wheat exports from them after the end of the month, until new crop 2013 becomes available.

They will continue to export corn though, the harvest of which is said to be 89% complete, producing 17.97 MMT in bunker weight so far. That suggests a best case clean weight scenario of around 19.5 MMT, according to Agritel (1.5 MMT less than the USDA currently predict).

Agritel forecast Ukraine corn exports at 12.0-12.5 MMT this season, versus the USDA's 12.5 MMT and the local Grain Association estimate of 12.5-13.5 MMT. Corn exports in 2011/12 were 15 MMT according to the USDA.

Rosstat say that the Russian corn harvest is 70% complete, and that the nation's total grain harvest currently stands at 72.3 MMT in bunker weight, down 23.5 MMT on this time a year ago.

A let up in the rains has seen the French corn harvest advance to 92% complete, according to FranceAgriMer, who also now estimate winter wheat plantings at 88% complete and those of winter barley at 97% done.

The Australian Oilseeds Federation forecast rapeseed production there this year at only 2.697 MMT versus output of 2.82 MMT last year (according to ABARES and the USDA) despite a 23% hike in planted area due to drought.

Download



Comments


No comments posted yet. Be the first to post a comment

To post comment without approval login or register

Display name

Please enter your name

Email (optional)
Comment

Please enter your comment

Post Comment

Your comment submitted successfully.Please wait for admin approval.

Some error on your process.Please try one more time.



Jobs


9 January 2015
Senior Manager
Joining as a Senior Manager you will have the expected responsibilities of managing a client portfolio, covering a wide range...

21 January 2015
HGV / LGV / Class 1 Driver, Gloucester
Ensure all equipment is used in line with the Dairy Crest safe systems of work. This is an excellent opportunity for an exper...

10 January 2015
NPD Professional
Working directly with a major retailer to maintain their strong relationship and develop new exciting interesting products in...

17 January 2015
Senior CAD Technician (Civil/Structural) x 2
This is a newly created position to undertake Civil & Structural drawings, supporting Project Teams across Power, Process...

24 January 2015
SOLICITOR - PRIVATE CLIENT
Develop the firms’ and their own profile as a market leader advising owners of farm businesses and landed estates;...




Top stories you may have missed
12 November 2014 | Arable
GM crops 'good for farmers and the envir...

GM crops 'good for farmers and the envir...

GM crops are good for the economy and can reduce the amount of pesticides u...


6 November 2014 | Cattle
Smaller European markets drive beef expo...

Smaller European markets drive beef expo...

Demand from smaller European markets has helped drive strong growth for UK ...


6 November 2014 | Agri Safety
Lack of engineers a 'ticking time bomb' ...

Lack of engineers a 'ticking time bomb' ...

A lack of engineers, not enough people promoting the land-based industries ...


4 November 2014 | Bees and Beekeeping
Bee action plan due: Last chance for bee...

Bee action plan due: Last chance for bee...

Environment Secretary Elizabeth Truss is launching the National Pollinator ...


4 November 2014 | Arable
Experts welcome financial boost for youn...

Experts welcome financial boost for youn...

Agricultural specialists have welcomed a potential financial boost for youn...


3 November 2014 | News
Supermarket competition on prices 'risks...

Supermarket competition on prices 'risks...

As retailers continue to participate in a highly competitive race to the bo...


31 October 2014 | Arable
New Defra farm figures 'underline volati...

New Defra farm figures 'underline volati...

New farm business income data from Defra, which focus on income from March ...


30 October 2014 | Agri Safety
Agriculture remains one of UK's most dan...

Agriculture remains one of UK's most dan...

Agriculture has remained one of the industries in which workers are most li...


29 October 2014 | Finance
UK farmland prices see 'substantial grow...

UK farmland prices see 'substantial grow...

Prime arable land in the UK has seen a substantial year-on-year growth in p...


27 October 2014 | Arable
Satellites to help farmers pinpoint dise...

Satellites to help farmers pinpoint dise...

A new mobile app for farmers able to pinpoint and identify disease, pests a...