HROC (agency) - Kubota
Farminguk
26 August 2016 | Online since 2003
Auto Trader Ltd


2 July 2014 13:18:47 |Cattle,News

Global beef market 'will regain momentum', says report


The global beef market will regain its positive momentum in Q3 once the current, temporarily high supply has worked through the system, according to new report.
This will likely support further strengthening of prices, as supply of competing animal proteins tighten. The main wildcards for the start of these positive developments are rainfall in Australia, and to a lesser extent the continued drought in US and Brazil pushing more cattle through the system. Indonesian import development during the July Ramadan festivities and Chinese imports towards the high season at the end of 2014 will also have unknown impacts. In addition, the relatively high prices might result in consumers trading down to pork and poultry.

“The continuing positive market fundamentals will be encouraging for producers’ margins”, explained Rabobank Analyst, Albert Vernooij. “However, longer term, the likely lower availability of feeder cattle and high production costs might limit the possible upside. For processors, the current stabilisation gives them room to regain margins, but prospects are less positive due to the approaching tight supply in most producing regions”.

Regional Outlooks:

EU: EU beef prices are expected to stabilise around the current levels into the summer, with some potential upside later in the year due to the combination of stable supply, continuing strong export demand and relatively high-priced competing proteins.
US: After exploding into all-time record price levels during Q1, the US cattle and beef markets have subsided a bit during Q2. Going forward, seasonal price pressure is starting to weigh on the market along with expectations that more fed cattle will be making their way to market very soon. Feeder cattle and calf prices continue to push into new all-time record highs in the upper USD 200 to mid-USD 210 range.
Australia: Total Australian cattle slaughter during the first four months of 2014 increased 12% YOY on the back of dry conditions. Boxed beef exports have, as a result, reached record levels throughout the first five months of 2014. Both the short and medium term outlook for supplies and prices is heavily dependent on rainfall.
Brazil: In Q2 2014, the Brazilian beef market was tested by both the discovery of a new atypical case of BSE in Mato Grosso and the growth in production costs. While early reporting of BSE allowed Brazil to keep its ‘insignificant risk’ status, some international embargoes ensued. Strong exports remain however and Rabobank expects prices to recover in Q3 and Q4.
Canada: Record price levels in the US have been drawing a lot of Canadian cattle, and extreme winter weather has caused very expensive cattle maintenance and feeding conditions. As a result, year-to-date feeder cattle exports to the US are currently running 44% above year ago levels, a pace simply not possible to continue and a sharp decline in shipments are expected in 2014 2H.
Argentina: A poor performance of exports continues to be the combined result of an uncompetitive exchange rate, a 15% export tax and the cumbersome process of obtaining export rights. Rabobank expects production to increase seasonally, while demand will weaken as a result of the generally recessive economic environment.
China: China’s beef imports reached 101,000 tonnes in the first four months of 2014, an increase of 34% YOY, but lower compared to the astonishing growth of 380% in 2013. Even with this volume, beef imports to China are historically very high.

Download

0 Comment

loginuserlogo
Name

Please enter your name


Email

Please enter your email

Please enter valid email


Comment

Please enter your comment


Post Comment

Your comment has been submitted successfully. Please wait for admin approval.


Comments

No comments posted yet. Be the first to post a comment


Ireland | 25 August 2016
EU worry at lack of GM food testing in Ireland

Inspectors from the European Commission’s Directorate General for Health and Food Safety said the lack of laboratory capacity at the Public Analyst’s Laboratory (PAL), which is located in St Finbarr’s...


France | 25 August 2016
French farmers may face more pain as dry weather hits crops

French farmers can’t seem to catch a break from the weather. After deluges earlier this year decimated wheat crops, now not enough rain is threatening their corn. Many fields in the European Union’...


France | 25 August 2016
French farmers protest over low milk prices outside major milk processor

Some 400 French dairy farmers have blockaded the roads around Lactalis, the milk processor based in Laval, France, this week in protest against low milk prices. The farmers have taken over the roun...


USA | 25 August 2016
The next agriculture revolution is under our feet

At the core of agriculture is innovation. Advancements in agricultural technology throughout the past century have allowed farmers to feed a population that has grown from less than 2 billion people t...


Australia | 25 August 2016
Dairy industry goes under spotlight as Barnaby Joyce signals end to $1 milk

Scott Morrison has asked the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission to investigate the national dairy industry as the agriculture minister, Barnaby Joyce, emerged from a dairy crisis meeting d...



Trending Now

Viewed
Discussed


Top stories you may have missed
FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

The British public are overwhelmingly in favour of keeping or strengthening...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

The sustained recovery of pig prices since the spring has come at a time wh...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

A World Trade Organisation (WTO) panel has declared the Russian import ban ...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

A new study has linked oilseed rape crops grown from neonicotinoid-treated ...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

Philip Hammond is to guarantee billions of pounds of UK government investme...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

Access to the foreign labour market is 'critical', according the chief exec...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

The Tenant Farmers Association has said the National Trust's vision for a p...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

Ulster farmers will 'not lie down and wave the white flag' when Brexit nego...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

The cost of rural crime to the UK economy costs £42.5 million a year, accor...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

A young farmers club member from Oxfordshire has created a petition on the ...


closeicon
Username
Password