27 March 2015 | Online since 2003



Heavy rain on the Plains is slowing winter wheat progress


Soycomplex

Beans ended mixed, lower on old crop and higher on the new. The CFTC's Commitment of Traders report shows managed money significantly cutting their exposure in beans for the week through to Tuesday night, in which they cut their length by some 33,519 contracts bringing their overall net long down to just 46,624 contracts. The USDA announced that private exporters had sold 110,000 MT of US beans to unknown for 2014/15 shipment under the daily reporting system.


The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said that the Argentine soybean harvest was limping over the line, at 92.2% complete versus 88.1% a week ago and 100% a year ago. They stood by their production estimate of a record 55.5 MMT. The persistent rains that have disrupted the harvest have also been said to have damaged quality this year, with low oil and protein levels in the crop.

Excessive Midwest wetness is a cause for concern for newly planted soybeans. The USDA will update us on crop conditions on Monday. Last week the crop was 73% good/excellent, we could see that trimmed 2-3 points on Monday, although that would still be better than a year ago. Coceral increased their forecast for the EU-28 rapeseed crop to a record 22.8 MMT, whilst Copa Cogeca went for a slightly lower (but still a record) 22.2 MMT. Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $14.15 3/4, down 5 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $12.31 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents; Jul 14 Soybean Meal closed at $459.20, up $8.00; Jul 14 Soybean Oil closed at 40.04, down 57 points. For the week, front month beans fell 10 cents, with meal down $8.70 and oil adding 35 points.

Corn

The corn market closed around 2-4 cents higher on excessive wetness in parts of the US corn belt. Gains for the week were relatively modest though. Monday's crop condition ratings from the USDA will be of interest. Last week they raised the proportion of the crop rated good/excellent by 1 percentage point from the previous to 76%. You'd have to expect that to be cut by maybe 3-4 points on Monday. News that China has 150 MMT of domestic corn stocks, some of which they are looking to dispose of, weighs on the market - even if the quality of much of that material is in question.


This week's Chinese corn auctions didn't go too well, they sold less than 1 MMT of the 5 MMT on offer. CNGOIC estimated China’s 2013/14 corn imports at 4.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 5.5 MMT. Imports in 2014/15 are seen falling to 3.5 MMT. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated Argentina's corn harvest is 44.4% complete, up only modestly from 41.6% a week ago and well behind versus 71.8% a year ago. They forecast production at 25.0 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate.

Coceral forecast the EU-28 corn crop at 64.6 MMT, a 900 TMT increase from previously and 2.2% higher than a year ago. Copa Cogeca went even higher, forecasting an EU-28 crop of 68 MMT, a 7.3% increase on 2013. The CFTC's Commitment of Traders report shows managed money reducing their net corn long for the week through to Tuesday night by over 9k lots, giving them a net long position of 137,280 contracts. Ukraine said that they'd exported a record 20 MMT of corn so far this season. Jul 14 Corn closed at $4.53 1/4, up 2 3/4 cents; Sep 14 Corn closed at $4.48 1/4, up 4 cents. For the week Jul 14 corn was 6 1/4 cents higher.

Wheat

The wheat market ended around 8 to 12 cents lower on the day. Heavy rain on the Plains is slowing 2014 winter wheat harvest progress. Yields are disappointing, but protein levels are high. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said that winter wheat planting in Argentina is 34.3% complete versus 20.1% a week ago and 42% a year ago. They estimated the total planted area at 4.3 million ha, unchanged from previously.


The Argentine Ag Ministry say that plantings this year will total 4.5 million ha, a 23% increase on last year due to very good sowing conditions, rotational needs and better prices relative to those for corn. Whilst they wait for their own, and neighbouring Argentina's forthcoming big wheat crops, Brazil are still active in the import market. They are said to have been significant buyers again of US wheat in the past week. Taiwan also bought 96,180 MT of US wheat for Aug–Sept shipment overnight. Coceral increased their forecast for the EU-28 all wheat crop by 6 MMT to 149.4 MMT.

Copa Cogeca also increased their forecast, but to a slightly more modest 147.4 MMT, although both would be the second highest on record. Coceral said that Romania would produce 8.7 MMT of wheat this year, which is far higher than the USDA's current 7.6 MMT estimate. A large crop there would make competition out of the Black Sea region all the more fierce, especially in the early part of the new campaign. Hungary said today that it would harvest around 5 MMT of wheat this year, a figure similar to last year and a 14% increase on the 5-year average. A Reuters survey pegged the Russian wheat crop at an average guess of 52.6 MMT, with Ukraine producing 20.7 MMT and Kazakhstan harvesting 14.2 MMT. Managed money increased it's CBOT short by 1,807 contracts to a net near 29k lots for the week through to Tuesday night. Jul 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.85 1/4, down 8 1/4 cents; Jul 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.20 3/4, down 8 1/2 cents; Jul 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.90 1/2, down 12 1/2 cents. For the week, Chicago was down 3/4 of a cent, with Kansas up 7 1/2 cents and Minneapolis rising 7 cents.

Download



Comments


No comments posted yet. Be the first to post a comment

To post comment without approval login or register

Display name

Please enter your name

Email (optional)
Comment

Please enter your comment

Post Comment

Your comment submitted successfully.Please wait for admin approval.

Some error on your process.Please try one more time.



Jobs


13 March 2015
Order Picker for Packhouse
Enthusiastic and reliable warehouse order picker required for a fast paced fresh produce company based in Dartford Kent. Job ...

17 March 2015
Agricultural Solicitor - Suffolk
SUFFOLK - An excellent opportunity for a Solicitor with experience in the field of Agricultural law to join a one of Suffolk'...

12 March 2015
Payments and Membership Administrator - 3 Month Contract
NSF International’s Agriculture Division provides certification, auditing, consulting, training, farm services and laboratory...

26 March 2015
Customer Service Team Supervisor - Maternity Cover
NSF International's Agriculture Division provides certification, auditing, consulting, training, farm services and laboratory...

21 March 2015
Store Agricultural Specialist
Countrywide have an exciting opportunity for a Store Agricultural Specialist to join the team based in Hereford . The success...




Top stories you may have missed
23 March 2015 | Cattle

UK butchers face difficulties to recruit...

Butchers in the UK are losing a generation through lack of training opportu...


20 March 2015 | Arable

Dust - the secret fertiliser?

NASA research has revealed how dust blown from the Sahara desert helps supp...


19 March 2015 | Arable

The Budget 2015: A Farmer's Budget?

“In the run up to the Budget 2015 most commentators were predicting that th...


17 March 2015 | News

UK's first floating solar power system l...

The UK’s first fully operational floating solar panel system has been unvei...


13 March 2015 | Animal Health

Labour and Conservatives clash over badg...

Axing the badger cull in England and Wales will save more than £120 million...


12 March 2015 | News

Solar could be cheapest energy source by...

By 2025, solar power could become one of the cheapest forms of energy in ma...


11 March 2015 | Finance

English buyers turn their attention to S...

Demand for Scottish farm land remains strong and continues to be better val...


9 March 2015 | Cattle

2020 vision for the Welsh red meat indus...

The Welsh red meat industry should aim to increase sales by at least 34 per...


6 March 2015 | News

MP raises egg industry concerns on trans...

Fears about the impact that a proposed transatlantic trade agreement could ...


Stay safe and legal when flying drones

The use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and Unmanned Aircraft Systems - or dron...