28 January 2015 | Online since 2003



21 March 2014|Dairy,Finance,News

International dairy pricing 'to ease through 2014'


Global milk pricing is expected to ease from mid to late Q2 2013, according to the Q2 Dairy Quarterly report.

Exportable supply rose strongly in Q4 2013 and is expected to continue into early 2014 as producers respond to improved margins through high milk prices and falling feed costs.

A strong Northern Hemisphere production season, on the back of an exceptional season in the Southern Hemisphere, should generate more than enough exportable supply to exceed China’s extraordinary additional needs from the world market, loosening the market somewhat. However, the rate of price reduction will be limited by structural constraints on suppliers, the need to replenish depleted buyer inventories and ongoing demand growth in line with a slow economic recovery.


“The most crucial demand side question is whether China will sustain the frenetic buying we have seen on the international market throughout the last 12 months”, states Rabobank analyst Tim Hunt.

Regional Outlooks


EU: Rabobank expects production to rise by an impressive 4% YOY for 1H 2014, fuelling a surge in exports. Fractional growth in 2H 2014 will be boosted in 1H 2015 when current quotas are eliminated and the EU will likely make a substantial contribution to boosting international supply.

US: The US domestic market is only expected to show modest growth over 2014, as slow economic growth and reductions in SNAP payments are compounded by further increases in retail pricing. But improved supply momentum should see exports grow strongly in 1H 2014.

New Zealand: Rabobank expects the final three months of the NZ season (to May 2014) to see production at least 20% to 30% higher than the drought-impacted finish to the 2013 season. While export volumes can be expected to taper off through season end, shipments are likely to continue to trend at least 10% above the previous year due to higher milk flows.

Australia: Improved seasonal conditions and increased farmgate prices for Southern producers saw a recent rise in milk flow, albeit marginal. Rabobank expects a further recovery in milk flows in 1H 2014, on the back of better weather and higher milk prices. A small exportable surplus can also be expected on the back of a 2% YOY production increase.

Brazil: A drought in the Southeast, coupled with weak local demand growth is expected to slow Brazilian supply growth, simultaneously reducing import activity as supply expands faster than local demand.

Argentina: In the context of a depreciating Peso and economic uncertainty, Rabobank expects only modest YOY production growth, particularly as margins are eroded from milk prices rising slower than costs.

Download



Comments


No comments posted yet. Be the first to post a comment

To post comment without approval login or register

Display name

Please enter your name

Email (optional)
Comment

Please enter your comment

Post Comment

Your comment submitted successfully.Please wait for admin approval.

Some error on your process.Please try one more time.



Jobs


9 January 2015
Retail Butcher
Butcher, Retail, Meat, Beef, Pork, Lamb, Game, Sausage, Bacon, Dairy, Dry Aged, Dry Aging, Food. Retail Butcher ,Food, Glouce...

13 January 2015
Trainee Ruminant Nutritionist – Midlands
This vacancy allows candidates to take the leap from practical farming to the commercial sector within agriculture....

24 January 2015
Administrator
This varied Administrator opportunity requires a process-driven, confident, organised and approachable jobseeker to assist th...

7 January 2015
Warehouse Work, Chard **Immediate Start
Manpower are currently recruiting Production Operatives for one of the largest and most reputable Dairy Product Manufacturers...

9 January 2015
Workshop Manager - Machinery Repairs - Halifax - £25k - Halifax (England)
Salary: c£18k - 25k per Annum + Plus Bonus Reference: 9266NY-Halifax Workshop Manager – Machinery Repairs Halifax , West York...




Top stories you may have missed
12 November 2014 | Arable
GM crops 'good for farmers and the envir...

GM crops 'good for farmers and the envir...

GM crops are good for the economy and can reduce the amount of pesticides u...


6 November 2014 | Cattle
Smaller European markets drive beef expo...

Smaller European markets drive beef expo...

Demand from smaller European markets has helped drive strong growth for UK ...


6 November 2014 | Agri Safety
Lack of engineers a 'ticking time bomb' ...

Lack of engineers a 'ticking time bomb' ...

A lack of engineers, not enough people promoting the land-based industries ...


4 November 2014 | Bees and Beekeeping
Bee action plan due: Last chance for bee...

Bee action plan due: Last chance for bee...

Environment Secretary Elizabeth Truss is launching the National Pollinator ...


4 November 2014 | Arable
Experts welcome financial boost for youn...

Experts welcome financial boost for youn...

Agricultural specialists have welcomed a potential financial boost for youn...


3 November 2014 | News
Supermarket competition on prices 'risks...

Supermarket competition on prices 'risks...

As retailers continue to participate in a highly competitive race to the bo...


31 October 2014 | Arable
New Defra farm figures 'underline volati...

New Defra farm figures 'underline volati...

New farm business income data from Defra, which focus on income from March ...


30 October 2014 | Agri Safety
Agriculture remains one of UK's most dan...

Agriculture remains one of UK's most dan...

Agriculture has remained one of the industries in which workers are most li...


29 October 2014 | Finance
UK farmland prices see 'substantial grow...

UK farmland prices see 'substantial grow...

Prime arable land in the UK has seen a substantial year-on-year growth in p...


27 October 2014 | Arable
Satellites to help farmers pinpoint dise...

Satellites to help farmers pinpoint dise...

A new mobile app for farmers able to pinpoint and identify disease, pests a...