TMMF Ltd
Farminguk
26 June 2016 | Online since 2003
OvoConcept


21 March 2014 15:56:43|Dairy,Finance,News

International dairy pricing 'to ease through 2014'


Global milk pricing is expected to ease from mid to late Q2 2013, according to the Q2 Dairy Quarterly report.
Exportable supply rose strongly in Q4 2013 and is expected to continue into early 2014 as producers respond to improved margins through high milk prices and falling feed costs.
A strong Northern Hemisphere production season, on the back of an exceptional season in the Southern Hemisphere, should generate more than enough exportable supply to exceed China’s extraordinary additional needs from the world market, loosening the market somewhat. However, the rate of price reduction will be limited by structural constraints on suppliers, the need to replenish depleted buyer inventories and ongoing demand growth in line with a slow economic recovery.

“The most crucial demand side question is whether China will sustain the frenetic buying we have seen on the international market throughout the last 12 months”, states Rabobank analyst Tim Hunt.

Regional Outlooks

EU: Rabobank expects production to rise by an impressive 4% YOY for 1H 2014, fuelling a surge in exports. Fractional growth in 2H 2014 will be boosted in 1H 2015 when current quotas are eliminated and the EU will likely make a substantial contribution to boosting international supply.
US: The US domestic market is only expected to show modest growth over 2014, as slow economic growth and reductions in SNAP payments are compounded by further increases in retail pricing. But improved supply momentum should see exports grow strongly in 1H 2014.
New Zealand: Rabobank expects the final three months of the NZ season (to May 2014) to see production at least 20% to 30% higher than the drought-impacted finish to the 2013 season. While export volumes can be expected to taper off through season end, shipments are likely to continue to trend at least 10% above the previous year due to higher milk flows.
Australia: Improved seasonal conditions and increased farmgate prices for Southern producers saw a recent rise in milk flow, albeit marginal. Rabobank expects a further recovery in milk flows in 1H 2014, on the back of better weather and higher milk prices. A small exportable surplus can also be expected on the back of a 2% YOY production increase.
Brazil: A drought in the Southeast, coupled with weak local demand growth is expected to slow Brazilian supply growth, simultaneously reducing import activity as supply expands faster than local demand.
Argentina: In the context of a depreciating Peso and economic uncertainty, Rabobank expects only modest YOY production growth, particularly as margins are eroded from milk prices rising slower than costs.

Download



0 Comment


Name

Please enter your name


Email

Comment

Please enter your comment


Post Comment

Your comment submitted successfully.Please wait for admin approval.


Comments

No comments posted yet. Be the first to post a comment


Netherlands | 24 June 2016
Dutch crops grown on 'Mars' soil found safe to eat

Dutch scientists said Thursday crops of four vegetables and cereals grown on soil similar to that on Mars have been found safe to eat, amid plans for the first manned mission to the planet. Abundan...


Canada | 24 June 2016
Canadian farmers' percentage equity increase

Equity in Canada’s farm sector was up almost 6 per cent at the end of last year from the year before. However, Statistics Canada points out that’s the smallest percentage increase since 2009. Th...


France | 24 June 2016
Inside Europe: Is China changing the face of rural France?

In France, farms have often been in the same families for generations. But that's begun to change for agricultural communities in Berry, a cereal growing region in the center of the country. C...


Australia | 24 June 2016
Drought forces Queensland cattle to head to South Australia

The ongoing drought in Queensland is forcing graziers to send their cattle nearly 2,000 kilometres away from home on agistment. The Walker family from Cumberland station, near Barcaldine in central...


Congo | 24 June 2016
A potential agricultural powerhouse for Africa

The Democratic Republic of the Congo is the second largest country in Africa, after Algeria, but unlike the arid north African state, the DRC is endowed by nature with forest that covers two-thirds of...



Trending Now

Viewed
Discussed

Farms and Land for sale

PropertyLocation
PropertyAgent
PropertyMinimumPrice
PropertyMaximumPrice
PropertyCategory

Holiday Rentals search

AccommodationKeyword
AccommodationType
AccommodationCounty
AccommodationStarRating


Top stories you may have missed
closeicon
Username
Password