29 March 2015 | Online since 2003



Midwest freeze restricting movement of grains


Soycomplex

Beans fell hard on a combination of risk aversion, the impending huge South American crop and yet more Chinese cancellation talk. Argentine weather suddenly looks more co-operative, and if anything they could now do with a bit less rain in Brazil where the soybean harvest pace in Mato Grosso has slowed, hindered by persistent showers.


"According to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea), the soybean crop in the state is approximately 6% harvested, which is 2% slower than last year at this time," said Dr Cordonnier. The USDA's attaché in Brazil estimated the 2013/14 soybean crop at a record 89.5 MMT versus the official USDA estimate of 89.0 MMT and the 2012/13 crop of 81.6 MMT.

The attaché estimated Brazil's 2013/14 bean exports at a record 46.0 MMT, which is 2 MMT more than the USDA's own forecast. Argentina producers are still not selling old crop or new crop soybeans until the dust settles around the rapidly weakening peso. There's talk of a possible hike in the soybean export tax too. "If the government begins to enact measures to entice or even force sales, this could be a very bearish development on the market," said one commentator. Some are saying that tomorrow's weekly export sales report could be in negative territory for old crop beans due to Chinese cancellations. The US has been busy selling new cop beans lately. Trade estimates for export sales for both marketing years tomorrow are around 500-600 TMT. Chinese markets are closed Friday and Monday due to Lunar New Year celebrations. Mar 14 Soybeans closed at $12.69 1/4, down 16 1/4 cents; May 14 Soybeans closed at $12.56 3/4, down 14 1/4 cents; Mar 14 Soybean Meal closed at $423.30, down $5.30; Mar 14 Soybean Oil closed at 37.10, down 30 points.

Corn

The corn market closed around 4 cents lower amidst a general malaise in the grain markets. The current deep freeze hitting the Midwest is keeping producer selling light and restricting the movement of grains however. Temperatures are forecast to moderate a little by the end of the week, but storms could bring up to 6 inches of snow for some.


Reuters reported that Canada's record 14.2 MMT corn crop is making it as far afield as Ireland. In fact, of the volume shipped abroad in the first five months of 2013/14 nearly three-quarters of it headed for Ireland, according to the Canadian Grain Commission.

Ukraine seem to be having a few problems with weather-related logistics, maybe that is why the US picked up a 110 TMT sale to Spain yesterday? The US Energy Dept reported weekly ethanol production at 900,000 barrels/day, down 5,000 bpd on the previous week. Around 924,000 bpd is what is required to hit the USDA projection for the season. Stocks also declined to 16.9 million barrels from 17.0 million last week. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are in the 600-900 TMT region for corn. An improved weather outlook for Argentina may help corn a bit, but is likely to be more beneficial for soybeans it is thought. The trade is watching and waiting for any action from the Argentine government to "encourage" a pick up in farmer selling. There's talk that bird flu in China is spreading. Mar 14 Corn closed at $4.27 1/2, down 4 1/2 cents; May 14 Corn closed at $4.34, down 4 cents.

Wheat

The wheat market crashed between 7 and 14 cents lower on the day across the three exchanges. Front month Mar 14 CBOT wheat displayed the most weakness closing at the lowest level since July 2010 on the continuous chart. An improved US weather outlook, a moderation in temperatures and chances of snow removed some of the winterkill talk. Japan bought 150 TMT of feed barley via a tender for Feb – March shipment. Bangladesh bought 150,000 TMT of Indian wheat.


US wheat was easily the cheapest offer put up on an FOB basis in yesterday's Egyptian tender, but they still only bought one cargo of US SRW. The US offer was matched by Russian wheat when freight was added on. There were no Ukraine offers. It's difficult to know if that was because they are sold out, or due to the civil unrest going on there at the moment.

There were no Romanian offers either. The move to lower the maximum moisture requirement to 13% could provide a boost for US wheat to make further inroads in future GASC tenders. Egypt’s Supply Minister said that their wheat reserves are now sufficient to last until May. Regardless, they may well be back in the market again next week, or even over the weekend after today's price slump. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 350-550 TMT. Minneapolis wheat set another new contract low for the third session in a row today, closing below $6/bushel. Mar 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.51 1/2, down 14 1/2 cents; Mar 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.08 3/4, down 13 1/4 cents; Mar 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.98, down 7 cents.

Download



Comments


No comments posted yet. Be the first to post a comment

To post comment without approval login or register

Display name

Please enter your name

Email (optional)
Comment

Please enter your comment

Post Comment

Your comment submitted successfully.Please wait for admin approval.

Some error on your process.Please try one more time.



Jobs


16 March 2015
Electrician / Mate
JIB qualified electricians and part qualified electricians mates to work on a solar farm project- immediate start available.....

13 March 2015
Civil Litigation Solicitor - Head of Department
They offer a range of services for business, agriculture, and the private client. A successful and respected law firm are see...

10 March 2015
International Account Director
In addition to the top-level training and working on pioneering campaigns, we work across a myriad of the great and good in n...

26 March 2015
Senior Scientist (Molecular Biology)
Our ambitious and exciting vision is to work at local, national and international levels, leading innovation and sustainable ...

10 March 2015
Head Chef- Soho House Group, Bicester Village
The restaurant concept is set to be a bustling Farm Shop with a British Menu offering locally sourced produce, rotisserie sty...




Top stories you may have missed
23 March 2015 | Cattle

UK butchers face difficulties to recruit...

Butchers in the UK are losing a generation through lack of training opportu...


20 March 2015 | Arable

Dust - the secret fertiliser?

NASA research has revealed how dust blown from the Sahara desert helps supp...


19 March 2015 | Arable

The Budget 2015: A Farmer's Budget?

“In the run up to the Budget 2015 most commentators were predicting that th...


17 March 2015 | News

UK's first floating solar power system l...

The UK’s first fully operational floating solar panel system has been unvei...


13 March 2015 | Animal Health

Labour and Conservatives clash over badg...

Axing the badger cull in England and Wales will save more than £120 million...


12 March 2015 | News

Solar could be cheapest energy source by...

By 2025, solar power could become one of the cheapest forms of energy in ma...


11 March 2015 | Finance

English buyers turn their attention to S...

Demand for Scottish farm land remains strong and continues to be better val...


9 March 2015 | Cattle

2020 vision for the Welsh red meat indus...

The Welsh red meat industry should aim to increase sales by at least 34 per...


6 March 2015 | News

MP raises egg industry concerns on trans...

Fears about the impact that a proposed transatlantic trade agreement could ...


Stay safe and legal when flying drones

The use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and Unmanned Aircraft Systems - or dron...