06 July 2015 | Online since 2003

Outlook bearish for global fertiliser industry



21 February 2014 11:23:01|Market Reports,News,Slurry and Irrigation

Outlook bearish for global fertiliser industry


Rabobank are bearish on the global fertiliser industry, according to its Q1 Fertiliser Quarterly report. In urea, a temporary imbalance between supply and demand could put further temporary upward pressure on prices.

Phosphate demand in Q1 2014 is finding support from speculative buying from the US and Brazil, with prices finding additional support from elevated sulphur prices. However, at the end of this quarter, prices for both phosphates and urea could fall to levels seen before the recent price spike, as supply will exceed demand. Potash prices are likely to remain stable at current levels, with overcapacity looming over the market and supply chains already appearing full.

Regional Outlooks

· United States: While phosphates and urea prices appear to be heating up, the US market for potash is still slow. Buying is mostly limited by high inventory levels and US potash inventory levels do not yet reflect supply cuts by producers. US producers’ inventories only declined 1% in December to 2.99 million tonnes, down from 3.01 million tonnes in November, limiting the room for the supply pipeline to take in substantially more volumes in Q1.

· EU: European fertiliser markets appear relatively calm at the moment. The warm start to the year could shake things up by accelerating the timing of the spring application. Both the pending spring application and the current tight supply are driving nitrate prices higher and could continue to do so throughout the quarter.

· Brazil: Brazil's fertiliser industry is out-of-season, with fertiliser application for soybeans almost half a year away. High inventory levels are likely to reduce imports in Q1 2014, with the possible exception of potash.

· India: A good crop outlook and favourable agronomic conditions support fertiliser volumes ahead of the Kharif season. However, limited subsidy availability and uncertainty over 2014 Nutrient Based Subsidy (NBS) policies might cause buyers to hesitate.

· China: Additional volumes of urea and DAP from China are likely to enter the world market as a result of lower export tariffs. However, additional volumes are not likely to start making a significant impact in Q1. China’s potash imports dropped nearly 12% after steady demand and increased domestic supply.

· MENA and Ukraine: Newly struck gas price should incentivise Ukrainian production, but the start-up has been hampered by cold weather. Export issues in MENA have been resolved to some extent, but the start-up of production is slow and gas curtailment issues still plague producers.

Download




Comments


No comments posted yet. Be the first to post a comment

To post comment without approval login or register

Display name

Please enter your name

Email (optional)
Comment

Please enter your comment

Post Comment

Your comment submitted successfully.Please wait for admin approval.

Some error on your process.Please try one more time.



Jobs


Start Date: 6 July 2015
C166: Technical Manager - SW

De Lacy Executive is currently recruiting for a Technical Manager for an innovative and dynamic company established in biotec...


Start Date: 6 July 2015
G205: Ruminant Feed Sales Specialist - SW

Ruminant Feed Sales Specialist - SWA Ruminant Feed Sales Specialist for an established territory in the South West is require...


Start Date: 24 June 2015
Job for 2 OE or students - Combine driver, Corn cart, Drilling. 1 hour to London.   >>Maldon, Essex<<

1600 acres big kit normally have 1 or 2 students / OE people for corn carting (JCB fastracs, hyd tail gates), combining, poss...


Start Date: 6 July 2015
A424: Technical Manager - Agri Food Sector - South West/West Midlands

De Lacy Executive seek an experienced Manager to join a leading food and drink research organisation. Strong leadership skil...


Start Date: 17 June 2015
Shepherd/Stockman required for job near Aberdeen

 We are multipliers of New Zealand sheep composite blood lines, selling breeding stock throughout the U.K.  We requ...





Top stories you may have missed
5 June 2015 | Cattle

A strong pound and increased red meat imports coupled with a plentiful dome...


5 June 2015 | Arable

Depression is affecting Wales' farming industry and there is a need to use ...


5 June 2015 | Arable

With just one week to go before the final judging and announcement of the w...


5 June 2015 | Finance

A rural law expert has highlighted the importance of good succession planni...


5 June 2015 | Farmshops

A south Yorkshire dairy farming family is pulling out all the stops to prom...


4 June 2015 | Finance

Predicting what is going to happen to wheat prices is a challenge, but in s...


4 June 2015 | Agri Safety

A Lancashire based livestock theft prevention scheme is aiming to go nation...


4 June 2015 | News

A female farmer has been recognised by the farming and conservation industr...


4 June 2015 | Finance

The new Conservative government appears to be preparing to implement cuts f...


4 June 2015 | Arable

The Rural Payments Agency (RPA) will have mobile support units at the follo...