Auto Trader Ltd
Farminguk
03 May 2016 | Online since 2003
Briefing Media - FG Classified


25 June 2014 15:14:32|News

Rabobank Dairy Quarterly Q2: After recent slide, global dairy price recovery is likely 6 months away


As anticipated, global dairy prices softened considerably through Q2. According to Rabobank’s Dairy Quarterly Q2: Beyond the tipping point, prices fell as a result of improved milk production in export regions and the easing of forward purchasing by China. These mechanisms freed more product for other buyers and lowered the need to ration demand with international dairy commodity prices falling 10% to 20% in the three months to mid-June.
“The pull back in Chinese purchasing has been particularly significant, with evidence that the Chinese industry has accumulated excess inventories after a period of vigorous buying, improved local milk production and weaker local sales. Current prices in the international market have dropped below what we see as sustainable in the medium term,” explained Rabobank analyst Tim Hunt.
Milk production growth will slow considerably in the second half of 2014 as lower prices are passed to producers, weather normalises and comparables become tougher to exceed. Consumption in export regions will also slowly improve on the back of higher incomes, employment growth and falling retail prices.
“Together these forces should gradually tighten up the market as we progress through 2014,” continued Hunt. “However, we expect little improvement in prices until late in 2014 or early 2015, as China works through its accumulated stocks and the world continues to consume the stronger than expected wave of milk produced in the first half of year.”
The report notes that one upside risk to keep an eye on is a developing El Nino event. This has the potential to generate unusually dry conditions in South East Australia and excessive rainfall in Argentina – and hence reduced milk production in both of these export regions.
Regional outlooks
· EU: 2014 has seen an extraordinary increase in EU milk production. Margins were high enough for many to simply choose to produce over quota limits, with production in the EU up 5.6% on Q2 last year. Growth is expected to continue outpacing domestic market consumption during 2H, although exportable surpluses are anticipated to slow considerably.
· US: US wholesale prices have slipped considerably less than those in the external market. They are in many cases at a significant premium to the world market in mid June and are expected to fall faster than elsewhere through 2H as exports fall back and domestic milk production picks up.
· New Zealand: New Zealand production was up 17.5% versus the same period in drought-impacted 2013. Export volumes are expected to trend well above the previous year through Q2 and Q3 2014 due to higher milk flows providing additional volume to be shipped during the seasonal trough versus 2013.
· Australia: The outlook for 2014/15 remains broadly positive for most dairying regions. While early price signals confirm southern export producers will face lower farmgate pricing in 2014/15 due to lower commodity prices, the market should remain supportive of investment.
· Brazil: Brazilian milk production declined seasonally from its December peak, as usual, but much more slowly than last year. There is likely to be little in the way of imports into the Brazilian market in 2H, while exporters will be trying to find a home for Brazilian production in the region and beyond.
· Argentina: Argentine milk production is expected to continue to fall below prior year levels in the second half of 2014. While margins over feed remain positive, other costs are subject to rapid inflation. In addition, a looming El Niño event is likely to bring above average rainfall from spring onwards, creating further problems on farm.

Download





1 Comment


Name

Please enter your name


Email

Comment

Please enter your comment


Post Comment

Your comment submitted successfully.Please wait for admin approval.


Comments

World News

United Kingdom | 29 April 2016
Banned pesticides 'not equally harmful' to bees

The largest field study so far in to the group of pesticides called "neonicotinoids" has concluded that each acts differently on the brains of the bees. One of the chemicals widely considered as be...


Canada | 29 April 2016
Competing ethical meat standards leave Alberta beef farmers in crossfire

Colleen Biggs and her husband, Dylan, own an award-winning livestock operation in Alberta. TK Ranch produces beef without antibiotics, drugs, added hormones, animal by-products and chemical insecticid...


India | 29 April 2016
Govt plans to use quarter of farmland for horticulture

In a bid to gain from Haryana's close proximity to the national capital, the state government has planned to use major chunks of agriculture land for horticulture in the state. The state governmen...


Austria | 29 April 2016
Negative effect on Austrian agriculture

The trade agreement between the US and Europe, TTIP, will have negative effects on employment and the biggest losses in jobs will be in the agricultural and food producing sectors. This is one of ...


New Zealand | 29 April 2016
Suicide concerns rise for farmers as dairy downturn takes its toll

A rise in substance abuse and domestic violence in Golden Bay's rural community raises concerns over suicide as the dairy downturn continues to bite, mental health workers say. Community Mental Hea...



Trending Now

Viewed
Discussed

Farms and Land for sale


Holiday Rentals search



Top stories you may have missed
Username
Password