Syngenta UK
Farminguk
25 August 2016 | Online since 2003
Auto Trader Ltd


27 February 2014 03:02:47 |

Rains delay Brazil soybean harvest; another US cold spell


Soycomplex
Beans closed with nearby Mar 14 posting a new high of $14/bushel and finishing the day within a cent of that. Nearby meal also set a new contract high. Very strong nearby demand continues to push the market higher, aided by further fund buying (estimated at around a net 5,000 soybean contracts on the day today). The USDA announced that "unknown" bought 568,000 MT of old crop US beans. There is some obvious speculation that this is China.
There is also some debate that this sale may include the provision to deliver South American beans and/or that the delivery period is right at the end of the season, and that the seller may therefore be able to delivery new crop US beans against the contract (assuming that there are any available). The Brazilian harvest is around a third of the way done, and there is some suggestion that output potential is trending lower. Around 85-92 MMT is the range of trade guesses, any of which would be a record versus last season's thus far all-time high of 82 MMT. Wet weather is slowing the Brazilian harvest and causing some yield loss concerns.
Flooding is causing some logistical problems too, after Brazil's "soybean highway" in Mato Grosso - the main transport route for beans to the ports - was reduced to only one lane after a dam broke. Repairs could take several months, according to Dr Cordonnier. Reuters reported that a gantry at the Brazilian port of Rio Grande's Tergrasa’s berth had been hit by accident, halting the shipment of grains from one of the five bulk terminals at the port. Repairs to the gantry may take 2 weeks. Analysts at a grain conference in Winnipeg estimated Canada’s canola plantings this year at 21.0 million acres, up 5% from a year ago, but below Ag Canada’s estimate of 21.6 million. Mar 14 Soybeans closed at $13.99, up 12 1/2 cents; May 14 Soybeans closed at $13.87 1/4, up 12 1/4 cents; Mar 14 Soybean Meal closed at $469.60, up $3.70; Mar 14 Soybean Oil closed at 40.58, down 17 points.
Corn
The corn market closed around 3-4 cents higher on the day. The heavy rains in Brazil that are delaying the soybean harvest there will also be having a negative impact on timely second crop corn plantings. Israel seeks 56,000 MT of optional origin corn for May-June shipment, with the Black Sea the most likely supplier.
The turmoil in Ukraine seems to have calmed down for now, but there are still reports of buyers preferring to buy corn from other sellers, such as Russia, in the region for the time being. South Korea's FLC bought 63,000 MT of US or South American corn for June shipment. Taiwan is seeking 60,000 MT of optional origin corn for April/May shipment. Another very cold spell is underway for the Midwest and US heartland, potentially boosting domestic feed demand for corn. A jump in US ethanol prices is also said to have sparked better margins.
The same Arctic blast hitting the US is also in evidence in Canada, making logistics there even worse. US oat futures surged limit up and above $5/bushel to fresh contract highs today, underpinning corn values. Front month Mar 14 oats are now up more than 40% since the turn of the year. Slow rail transportation in Canada was said to be one of the primary factors behind the jump. The Energy Dept will report on weekly ethanol production tomorrow. Last week's grind came in at 903k barrels/day, up 1,000 bpd on the previous week but still below the circa 930k bpd needed to hit the USDA's target for the season. Mar 14 Corn closed at $4.55 3/4, up 4 1/4 cents; May 14 Corn closed at $4.61 1/4, up 3 1/2 cents.
Wheat
The wheat market closed mixed. News that Egypt had cancelled 110,000 MT of US SRW wheat for 2013/14 shipment was bearish. Egypt’s Finance Ministry were however said to have approved financial guarantees of $75.3 million for the import of 240,000 MT of wheat. A report on Reuters suggests that they may be in the market to buy some 500,000-700,000 MT of wheat before their own harvest begins in April. They've been absent from the open market since late January.
Taiwan are said to be seeking 83,150 MT of US milling wheat for April–May shipment. The USDA's attache in Saudi Arabia said that the country will import 3.03 MMT of wheat in 2013/14 versus the USDA's own estimate of 2.7 MMT. Canada remains mired in logistical issues in attempting to move its record 2013 wheat crop. Bad weather, a newly nationalised railway system and now a 48 hour strike by Vancouver truck drivers are all taking their toll. Analysts at a grain conference in Winnipeg estimated Canada’s 2014 wheat planted area at 23.3 million acres, down 10% from a year ago and well below Ag Canada’s estimate of 24.7 million.
India's state owned firm STC was said to have picked up a best bid of $271.10 in a tender to export 110 TMT of wheat out of the west coast for Feb 28-Mar 28 shipment. Another government backed firm, PEC, was said to have picked up a best bid of $274.90 in a tendrr to export 70 TMT of wheat out of the east coast for the same shipment period. Both bids are well above the government's agreed minimum of $260/tonne. Rabobank cut their forecast for CBOT wheat prices in Q4 of 2014 by 80 cents to a 4-year low of $5.60/bushel. Mar 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.15, down 2 3/4 cents; Mar 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.90 1/2, up 1 1/2 cents; Mar 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.74, up 11 1/4 cents.

Download

0 Comment

loginuserlogo
Name

Please enter your name


Email

Please enter your email

Please enter valid email


Comment

Please enter your comment


Post Comment

Your comment has been submitted successfully. Please wait for admin approval.


Comments

No comments posted yet. Be the first to post a comment


Canada | 24 August 2016
Canadian farmers see bumper wheat crop as rain curbs quality

Canada’s wheat production will rise more than expected this year, adding to a global glut of the grain, while canola output will probably decrease, according to a government report. Wheat output wi...


France | 24 August 2016
Lactalis ready to discuss milk prices with angry French farmers

Europe's largest dairy producer, Lactalis, said on Tuesday it was ready to renegotiate milk prices paid to producers after hundreds of farmers protested outside its headquarters in northwestern France...


Japan | 24 August 2016
Is Japan's wagyu beef bubble bound to burst?

Bad news for high-end beef lovers: Japan’s Wagyu bubble could be on the verge of bursting. Prized Wagyu calves are currently fetching wildly inflated prices, says Nikkei Asian Review, and "If sky-high...


USA | 24 August 2016
Grassley to hold hearing on agriculture mergers next month

Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley said Tuesday he will hold a hearing next month to discuss a wave of consolidation among seed and chemical producers, including the merger of Dow and DuPont. The chairman of...


Kenya | 24 August 2016
Should agriculture be a required school subject?

Despite the grumbling of many frustrated American school kids taking math tests, the broad subjects required in public schools each have firm arguments for their respective inclusion. But that does...



Trending Now

Viewed
Discussed


Top stories you may have missed
FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

The sustained recovery of pig prices since the spring has come at a time wh...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

A World Trade Organisation (WTO) panel has declared the Russian import ban ...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

A new study has linked oilseed rape crops grown from neonicotinoid-treated ...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

Philip Hammond is to guarantee billions of pounds of UK government investme...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

Access to the foreign labour market is 'critical', according the chief exec...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

The Tenant Farmers Association has said the National Trust's vision for a p...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

Ulster farmers will 'not lie down and wave the white flag' when Brexit nego...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

The cost of rural crime to the UK economy costs £42.5 million a year, accor...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

A young farmers club member from Oxfordshire has created a petition on the ...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

The farming sector has reacted negatively to a proposal to reintroduce the ...


closeicon
Username
Password