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16 July 2014 10:28:28 |

Russia grain harvest 'progressing well'; corn market closes around 5-7 cents lower

Beans closed mixed, lower nearby to flat further forward. The USDA announced the sale of 120,000 MT of US beans sold to China for 2014/15 shipment, although this is just routine business. The USDA says that China will import 73 MMT of soybeans in 2014/15. To do that they need to buy 280,000 MT each and every day of a 5-day week for the entire year (no holidays allowed!).
The Chinese government only sold 59,692 MT of the 352,740 MT of soybeans on offer at auction. Dr Cordonnier estimated the 2014 US soybean yield at 45.0 bu/acre, unchanged from his previous estimate. He said that he expects Brazil’s 2014/15 soybean planted area to increase by 2-4%. Aug 14 Soybeans closed at $11.80 1/2, down 16 1/2 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $10.86 1/4, unchanged: Aug 14 Soybean Meal closed at $379.10, down $9.50; Aug 14 Soybean Oil closed at 36.90, up 2 points.
The corn market closed around 5-7 cents lower, setting fresh 4-year lows. Dr Cordonnier estimated 2014 US corn yields at a record 167.0 bu/acre versus his previous estimate of 165.0 bu/acre and the USDA's 165.3 bu/acre. Morgan Stanley went for a figure of 165.6 bu/acre. Dr Cordonnier said that he expects Brazil’s 2014/15 total corn planted area to decrease by 2-4%.
He said that corn prices in Mato Grosso are way below the cost of production at the equivalent of around $2.33/bu, and that local growers are asking the government for help. The supposed minimum price guaranteed by the government is around $2.80/bu, although the cost of production is said to be somewhere in the $3-3.50 range. IMEA estimated Mato Grosso's 2013/14 corn output at 17.09 MMT versus a previous estimate of 15.41 MMT. There's talk that rather than support farmers in the state, that the Brazilian government may start auctioning off up to 5 MMT of it's own stocks as early as next month. Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.74, down 7 1/2 cents; Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.81 3/4, down 6 1/2 cents.
The wheat market closed flat to 8 cents lower across the three exchanges. Russian wheat was the best priced in an Iraqi tender for hard wheat. US wheat was comfortably out-priced. Russia's grain harvest is progressing quite well, with average yields significantly ahead of year ago levels. Ukraine yields are also up on a year ago. Ukraine's statistics office said that the country's July 1st grain stocks were at 7.0 MMT, down 20% from a year ago.
The total including 2.4 MMT of wheat, 2.1 MMT of barley and 2.2 MMT of corn. The Canadian Wheat Board estimated that 3.5- 4.0 million acres of all crops in Canada may have been lost due to flooding. The market seems to largely be ignoring this issue for the time being. Jordan is closing a tender for 100,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat tomorrow. An Israeli wheat tender also closes tomorrow. US origin wheat is unlikely to feature in either. Sep 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.37 3/4, unchanged; Sep 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.39, down 7 1/4 cents; Sep 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.30 1/2, down 8 3/4 cents.


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