Auto Trader Ltd
Farminguk
29 September 2016 | Online since 2003
Less co2 Limited


4 March 2014 07:24:42 |

Threat of halt to Ukraine corn exports gets market nervous


EU grains closed sharply higher as tensions between Ukraine (and the West) and Russia scaled up a level or two over the weekend. This is the biggest crisis of the 21st Century for Europe, according to British Foreign Secretary William Hague. Russia's military has given Ukrainian forces in Crimea until dawn on Tuesday to surrender or face an assault.
Mar 14 London wheat closed GBP5.25/tonne firmer at GBP161.00/tonne, whilst new crop Nov 14 was GBP4.55/tonne higher at GBP152.05/tonne. Mar 14 Paris wheat closed EUR7.25/tonne higher at EUR208.50/tonne, Mar 14 Paris corn was up EUR3.50/tonne at EUR172.75/tonne, whilst May 14 Paris rapeseed was EUR5.25/tonne higher at EUR400.00/tonne.
Crude oil jumped to it's highest since September, and short-covering/spec buying meant that wheat followed suit, despite reports that grain exports out of Ukraine had so far largely continued relatively unhindered by recent developments.
Agritel said that Ukraine exported over 500 TMT of corn last week, along with 57 TMT of wheat, and that Russian ports on the Black Sea had loaded more than 200 TMT of wheat in the final week of February.
Nevertheless, the threat of a sudden halt to Ukraine's exports (of corn in particular) has got the market very nervous. They are scheduled to be the world's 3rd largest exporter of corn in 2013/14, along with being the 6th largest exporter of wheat. Agritel suggest that Ukraine still has around 5 MMT of corn and 3 MMT of wheat left to export this season.
The Ukraine hryvnia and Russian rouble fell to new lows against the US dollar and euro, which in theory makes exports out of the region even cheaper. It also makes imports very expensive though, and raises the question of whether growers in the region will be able to afford to pay for these products later in the year.
What will Europe and the West do, if anything, in retaliation to the Russian invasion of Ukraine? This isn't sending a few thousand troops into Afghanistan to fight the Taliban, after all. Will (most of) the world announce sanctions against the import of Russian grains? If they do, will China follow suit?
As ever, the market doesn't like uncertainty, and so up it goes. As stock markets around the world fall, it now seems like agri-commodities are suddenly back in vogue. That's changed in the blinking of an eye, and could just as easily switch back again of course. Is this a selling opportunity, or the start of a move back to old ground, many are asking?
In other news, the HGCA reported that England and Wales had planted more than 3.8 million hectares of winter wheat, barley, oats and OSR by Dec 1, a 14% increase on last year.
They said that 1.815 million ha of that was wheat, 19% more than the entire harvested area in 2013, before including ant late winter wheat and/pr spring planted crops.
The winter barley area was almost 370k ha, the highest since 2003, and the winter OSR area was just over 700k ha, up 3% from a total (winter and spring) area last year, they added.
“The higher wheat area increases the likelihood of the UK being able to return to being a net exporter of wheat in 2014/15. However, weather conditions during the rest of the growing season will be important in determining the quality and yields, and thus the UK’s export potential next marketing season,” they concluded.

Download

0 Comment

loginuserlogo
Name

Please enter your name


Email

Please enter your email

Please enter valid email


Comment

Please enter your comment


Post Comment

Your comment has been submitted successfully. Please wait for admin approval.


Comments

No comments posted yet. Be the first to post a comment


New Zealand | 28 September 2016
Weed free crops? Science may have the answer

Australian scientists are working on a revolutionary new way to help farmers rid their crops of weeds. With billions of dollars lost by farmers every year because of weeds, scientists from Charles ...


Puerto Rico | 28 September 2016
Puerto Rico finds unexpected source of growth in agriculture

Puerto Ricans are buying rice produced on the island for the first time in nearly 30 years. They are also eating locally grown mushrooms, kale and even arugula, along with more traditional crops such ...


USA | 28 September 2016
U.S. farmer lawsuits over Syngenta GMO corn granted class status

A U.S. district court judge in Kansas this week said lawsuits brought by U.S. farmers against seed company Syngenta AG over sales of biotech corn seeds not approved for import by China can proceed as ...


France | 28 September 2016
French cows die after eating all winter stock in one night

Almost half of a 50-strong herd of cows in western France ate themselves to death after chomping on the equivalent of a whole winter’s rations in just one night. The farmer in the Loire-Atlantique ...


Japan | 28 September 2016
2 companies pioneering purchases of Japanese farmland

Photo album giant Nakabayashi and home remodeler Sanyo Amnak will become the first businesses to buy Japanese farmland under a new strategic zone regulation aimed at raising agricultural productivity....



Trending Now

Viewed
Discussed


Top stories you may have missed
FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

Labour will end the badger cull and prioritise ending bovine TB, Shadow Def...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

A herd of rare White Park cattle could die out if its owners do not urgentl...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

The UK government is "failing" to support farmers in the long-term accordin...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

Retailer Co-op has announced that from May 2017 all of its bacon and lamb w...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

Over 50 wildlife organisations have compiled a stock-take of all the UK's n...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

In the run up to the EU farm ministers meeting the agricultural sector have...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

The RPA must iron out a number of problems that still exist with 2015 BPS p...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

Tourism businesses in the countryside are being held back due to the uncert...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

A 24 point action plan aimed at revitalising Scotland's sheep sector after ...


FarmingUK
FarmingUK Logo

FarmingUK

A new survey has revealed that the vast majority of British consumers belie...


closeicon
Username
Password