Agri-Shop Ltd
Farminguk
05 May 2016 | Online since 2003
Briefing Media - FG Classified


21 February 2014 10:38:10|

US corn plantings 'towards the bottom end of trade estimates'


Soycomplex
Beans closed higher, despite the USDA's Outlook Forum pegging the 2014 US soybean area at 79.5 million acres, 3 million up on last year and 1.5 million above last week's baseline projections. If anything though, many in the trade were talking of soybean plantings coming in even higher at 80 million acres or even more. The USDA also forecast US soybean prices averaging $9.65/bushel in 2014/15 versus a 2013/14 average price of $12.70/bushel.
The very strong US export pace, backed up by Tuesday's 1.5 MMT of weekly export inspections and the lack of the widely anticipated wholesale Chinese cancellations is supportive. Cumulative 2013/14 US soybean exports to date are 33 MMT (versus 28.2 MMT a year ago), or 80.5% of the USDA's target for the season. With a further 10.1 MMT sold and ready to go we have total US soybean commitments of 43.1 MMT versus a USDA export forecast for the season of only 41 MMT.
Brazil's 2013/14 soybean production potential is being trimmed, with most analysts now in the 88-90 MMT region, although Oil World today cut their outlook from 89.5 MMT to only 85 MMT. MDA CropCast cut their Argentine soybean production estimate by 730 TMT to 54.39 MMT citing current wetness and earlier heat. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly soybean export sales report are around 200-500 TMT for both marketing years. Old crop sales have been expected to come in negative, but failed to do so, for the past couple of weeks. Will tomorrow be the day? Mar 14 Soybeans closed at $13.58 1/4, up 4 cents; May 14 Soybeans closed at $13.47 3/4, up 5 3/4 cents; Mar 14 Soybean Meal closed at $450.90, down $2.10; Mar 14 Soybean Oil closed at 40.57, up 33 points.
Corn
The corn market closed around a couple of cents firmer, with the Mar 14 contract posting it's best close since October. The USDA's Outlook Forum pegged 2014 US corn plantings at 92 million acres, towards the bottom end of trade estimates, 1.5 million below last week's baseline projection, and 3.6% down on last year's 95.4 million.
They also forecast US corn prices in 2014/15 only averaging $3.90/bushel versus $4.50/bushel this season. The weekly US ethanol grind came in at 903k barrels/day, up 1,000 bpd on last week but below the circa 930k bpd needed to hit the USDA's target for the season. The political crisis in Ukraine is seen as possibly improving demand for US corn, although there's no evidence yet that it has thus far had a negative impact on grain exports from the country.
Japanese customs data showed that Japan imported 2.24 MMT of grain in January, up 4.2% from a year ago, including 1.093 MMT from the US - up 24.1% from a year ago. The Japanese Ministry reported that corn usage in feed in December was 45.2% versus 44.4% in November and 42.7% in December 2012. Lower world corn prices seem to be encouraging increased demand. Analysts said India’s poultry feed demand expected to increase by 9% in 2014. The Poultry Federation of India said corn feed demand from the sector is estimated at 750-800 TMT/month. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales for corn are around 800 TMT to 1.2 MMT. Mar 14 Corn closed at $4.55 3/4, up 2 cents; May 14 Corn closed at $4.62 1/4, up 2 cents.
Wheat
The wheat market around 1-4 cents lower across the three exchanges. The USDA's Outlook Forum estimated US all wheat plantings for the 2014 harvest at 55.5 million acres versus 56.2 million last year and 57 million in last week's baseline projections. They forecast the average wheat price in 2014/15 at $5.30/bushel versus $6.80/bushel this season.
"Prices for most row crops are expected to fall to the lowest levels since 2009/10," said Joseph Glauber, the USDA's chief economist. China sold 413 TMT of the 600 TMT of wheat it offered up at auction. They've gone quiet on buying wheat on the international market of late, but there's talk that they could be back in the market soon for May/Jul cargoes. Egypt have also gone quiet. They say that they now have enough wheat bought to last until June.
Weekly export sales tomorrow are expected to be quite robust at around 500-700 TMT. It seems possible that US wheat demand might be getting a boost from Canadian logistical issues. European exports meanwhile press on unabated, with Brussels issuing 756 TMT worth of soft wheat export licences this week. That takes the marketing year total to 19.3 MMT versus only 12.7 MMT this time last year. The problems in Ukraine may further boost EU wheat exports it is thought. Mar 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.16 1/4, down 4 cents; Mar 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.91 3/4, down 3/4 cent; Mar 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.81 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents.

Download





0 Comment


Name

Please enter your name


Email

Comment

Please enter your comment


Post Comment

Your comment submitted successfully.Please wait for admin approval.


Comments

No comments posted yet. Be the first to post a comment

World News

USA | 5 May 2016
US cattle futures slip after beef price drop

Cattle futures were slightly lower early Wednesday, pressured by a steep drop in the wholesale beef market reported Tuesday afternoon. Concerns about ample supplies and slack demand linger in the c...


China | 5 May 2016
China releases pork reserves as prices of pigs fly

Pork prices in China are at record levels even after Beijing pledged to decant some of its reserves on to the market this week in an attempt to tamp down the cost of the staple protein. When it com...


USA | 5 May 2016
Forget Farm to Fork, in Nashville, its Liquor to Livestock

Nelson's Green Brier Distillery is in the bourbon business -- and right now business is booming. "We're getting about 22 barrels a week out of what we're using here," said head distiller Andy Nelso...


Australia | 5 May 2016
Fonterra follows Murray Goulburn and cuts milk prices for Australian farmer suppliers

New Zealand dairy giant Fonterra will cut the price it pays its Australian farmer suppliers this season. The retrospective cut will see prices fall from $5.60 per kilogram of milk solids to $5. ...


South Africa | 5 May 2016
South African Poultry Association wants regulation of brined poultry products

The relaxation of regulation of brined poultry products was anti-poor and would adversely affect the poor, says the SA Poultry Association. CEO Kevin Lovell said was speaking at a press conference ...



Trending Now

Viewed
Discussed

Farms and Land for sale


Holiday Rentals search



Top stories you may have missed
Username
Password