23-04-2014 09:41 AM | Arable, Cereal, Crops, Market Reports, News

US farmers expected to plant record 2014 soybean crop



Soycomplex

Beans traded both sides, but ultimately ended lower, on continued worries on demand from China. A Reuters report suggesting that more Brazilian beans already sold for export were still at risk from cancellation got heavily long fund money nervous. They were estimated as ending the day as net sellers of around 7,000 soybean contracts. Reuters also reported that two cargoes of Argentine meal have been sold into the US east coast and that more deals are being discussed.


Adding fuel to the fire was ABOIVE cutting their estimate for Brazilian soybean exports in 2013/14 from 44 MMT to 43 MMT, due to weaker Chinese demand. Dr Cordonnier forecast the Brazilian soybean crop at a record 86.5 MMT, with Argentina at 53.5 MMT, both were unchanged from his previous estimates. Safras e Mercado pegged the Brazilian crop at 86.9 MMT, with Argentina seen matching the previous record crop at 54.5 MMT on Friday. US farmers are soon expected to begin planting a record 2014 soybean crop of their own this year. The USDA attaché in Canada estimated 2014/15 canola production at 16.2 MMT versus 18.0 MMT last year.

Despite a lower output, the attaché estimated Canadian 2014/15 canola exports at 8.5 MMT versus 8.0 MMT. Stats Canada's 2014 planting intentions report comes out on Thursday. Canola plantings could come in around 21 million acres versus 19.9 million last year it is thought. May 14 Soybeans closed at $14.79 3/4, down 19 cents; Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $14.70 3/4, down 16 1/2 cents; May 14 Soybean Meal closed at $479.80, down $5.90; May 14 Soybean Oil closed at 42.74, down 26 points.


Corn

The corn market closed higher, with trade talk of US planting delays adding support. The USDA said last night that 6% of the US corn crop was now in the ground, although up on last year's late planted 4%, it's below the 5-year average of 14% and less than the 9% that the market anticipated. A bit more support came from yesterday's large weekly export inspections total of 1.6 MMT, followed by today's announcement from the USDA that private exporters had sold 240,000 MT of US corn to Mexico for 2014/15 shipment under the daily reporting system.


South Korea's KFA bought 60,000 MT of US or South American corn for Oct shipment. Dr Cordonnier forecast the 2013/14 Brazilian corn crop at 72.0 MMT, versus previous estimate of 70.0 MMT. In Argentina he held pat at 23.5 MMT. Ag Canada estimated the Canadian 2014/15 corn crop at 12.7 MMT versus previous estimate of 13.1 MMT and down from 14.2 MMT in 2013/14. Stats Canada are out with their 2014 planting intentions report on Thursday. Corn acres are expected to be around 3.4 million versus 3.7 million last year. Ukraine said that it had exported 29 MMT of grains so far this season, with 18.3 MMT of that total corn. APK Inform expect full season grain exports at a record 31.3 MMT, of which 19.5 MMT (also an all time high) will be corn.

The spec community got the jitters yesterday, after news broke that Barclays was pulling out of most of its metals, energy and agri commodities trading due to "falling profitability in the face of tougher regulation". There was little sign of those nerves remaining today, with fund money estimated as finishing up as net buyers of around 10-12,000 corn contracts on the day. May 14 Corn closed at $4.96 1/4, up 7 3/4 cents; Jul 14 Corn closed at $5.02, up 8 1/4 cents.

Wheat

The wheat market closed a little higher, in light "Turnaround Tuesday" style, following yesterday's rout. Even so, only a relatively small proportion of Monday's losses were regained. Dollar weakness may have helped foster ideas that this will encourage some export demand. Last night's crop condition ratings, whilst unchanged in the good/excellent category from a week ago where hardly friendly either. Maybe the market just felt that last night's losses of 20-23 cents were a bit overdone? Some rain is in the forecast for US winter wheat, but amounts are generally low.


Japan seeks 108,789 MT of food wheat for May/Sep shipment in their regular routine tender. Iraq cancelled a tender for 50 TMT of optional origin wheat due to high prices. Egypt’s state newspaper estimated the country's 2014 wheat crop at 9.0 MMT versus the Ag Minister's 9.5 MMT. Ag Canada estimated the Canadian all wheat crop in 2014 at 29.3 MMT, unchanged from a previous estimate and down versus the record 37.5 MMT produced last year. Despite the decline, all wheat exports were forecast at 22.1 MMT, unchanged from previously and up 0.5 MMT versus 2013/14. The Canadian barley crop was estimated at 8.3 MMT versus a previous estimate of 8.4 MMT and compared to 10.2 MMT in 2013/14. Stats Canada's 2014 planting intentions report, due out on Thursday, is expected to show a Canadian all wheat area of 24.4 million acres versus 26.26 million in 2013.

Ukraine said that it's early spring grain plantings (mostly barley) were 97% complete. Russia’s Ag Ministry said that as of April 21st Russia had planted spring grains on 3.7 million ha (11.5% of the total planned area) versus 2.1 million a week ago and 2.8 million a year ago. May 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.73, up 4 3/4 cents; May 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.41 1/4, up 7 1/4 cents; May 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.20 1/4, up 5 3/4 cents.

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