18-06-2014 02:29 AM | Arable, Cereal, Crops, Market Reports, News

US record corn production 'could be on the cards'



Soycomplex

Beans ended a little lower, despite a supportive NOPA crush number for May. That came in at top end of trade estimates at 128.8 billion bushels - the average trade forecast was around 127 million. Weekly export inspections were only 7.92 million bushels, but they don't need to be high given the frenetic early season pace of exports.


After the close the USDA cut the proportion of the 2014 soybean crop to 73% good/excellent, down a point on a week ago, but a lot better than 64% this time last year. They said that 92% of the 2014 crop was now planted, which is 2 points ahead of the 5-year average. Emergence was 93% versus 71% a week ago and 77% for the five year average. Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $14.21 3/4, down 4 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $12.17, down 4 1/4 cents; Jul 14 Soybean Meal closed at $462.40, down $5.50; Jul 14 Soybean Oil closed at 39.50, down 19 points.

Corn


The corn market closed lower as non-threatening US weather gives rise to the suggestion that record corn production could be on the cards this year, despite reduced plantings. The USDA added to that belief by raising the proportion of the crop rated good/excellent by 1 percentage point to 76%. That's far better than only 64% a year ago, and said to be the best rating in 20 years by Reuters. Emergence was 97% versus 92% a week ago and 96% for the five year average.


Weekly export inspections of 1.1 MMT were supportive, but couldn't stem the tide. Fund selling was estimated at around 6,000 lots on the day. "Heavy rainfall is predicted this week in the Midwest, where soggy field conditions have already developed. Warming temperatures would increase evaporation, but recurring strong showers would cause locally heavy rain. Maximum temperatures are expected to reach the mid - upper 80s F this week, spurring strong growth and development in corn and soybeans," said Martell Crop Projections. Jul 14 Corn closed at $4.41, down 6 cents; Sep 14 Corn closed at $4.36 3/4, down 6 1/4 cents.

Wheat

The wheat market ended lower across the three exchanges. Weekly export inspections of less than 400 TMT weren't too friendly. Lebanon bought 15,000 MT of wheat from the Ukraine for July-Aug shipment.


Iran bought 55,000 MT of Russian wheat. Jordan seeks 100,000 MT of optional origin milling wheat for Dec-Jan shipment, along with a similar volume of barley. Ukraine's Ag Ministry said that Ukraine has exported 31.67 MMT of grains between July 1st – June 13th versus total 2012/13 grain exports of 23.0 MMT. The USDA reported US spring wheat crop conditions at 72% good to excellent, up 1% a week ago and versus 68% good to excellent a year ago. They put winter wheat at 30% good to excellent, unchanged from a week ago and one point behind last year. Winter wheat harvesting is 16% complete versus 9% a week ago and 20% for the five year average. Texas and Oklahoma are 40% and 47% harvested respectively. Kansas is just getting going at 2% complete. Jul 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.81, down 5 cents; Jul 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.08 1/4, down 5 cents; Jul 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.80, down 4 1/4 cents.

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