13-05-2014 10:31 AM | Arable, Cereal, Crops, Market Reports, News

US to lose place as world's largest wheat exporter to Europe



Soycomplex

Beans closed sharply lower, with fund money said to have been a net seller of around 6,000 contracts on the day. Weekly export inspections came in at 239,955 MT, taking the marketing year total to just shy of 41.7 MMT versus the USDA's target for the season of 43.545 MMT. China are set to auction 300,000 MT of soybeans from state-owned reserves tomorrow.


A Bloomberg report suggested that the auction may draw little interest due to the government's price ideas being too high relative to the cost of imported beans and the fact that the beans being sold are old. The USDA reported US soybean plantings at 20% complete as of Sunday night, up from 5% a week ago and more or less in line with the 5-year average of 21% done. Trade estimates had been for plantings of around 15-20%. Iowa is 20% complete versus 25% normally and Illinois is 26% complete versus 16% for the 5-year average.

It's too early yet for crop condition ratings, although the USDA will report on soybean emergence next week. May 14 Soybeans closed at $14.83, down 18 cents; Jul 14 Soybeans closed at $14.64 3/4, down 22 1/4 cents; May 14 Soybean Meal closed at $489.50, down $8.00; May 14 Soybean Oil closed at 40.78, down 20 points.


Corn

The corn market tumbled on ideas that US farmers made good progress with spring corn planting last week. "The Midwest received scattered strong showers last week, but less than expected, allowing corn planting to make good progress. Strong warming has finally developed in the Upper Midwest, where conditions much of the spring has been cold. Warmth and strong sunshine has strongly improved conditions in the northern corn belt.


Soil temperatures have finally crossed the 50 F threshold for seed germination in Minnesota, Wisconsin, northern Iowa and Michigan," said Martell Crop Projections. The USDA reported plantings at 59% complete, up 30 points in a week and now actually fractionally ahead of the 5-year average pace of 58% done. An earlier Reuters survey had come up with an average trade guess of 55% complete. Iowa is 70% done versus only 23% a week ago, and exactly in line with normal. Illinois is 78% complete versus 43% a week ago and only 53% normally.

Emergence was place at 18% nationally versus 7% a week ago and 25% on average at this time. Taiwan are tendering for 60,000 MT of corn from the US, South America and/or South Africa for July/August shipment. Weekly export inspections came in at 1,199,447 MT, which was in line with trade forecasts. May 14 Corn closed at $4.97 1/4, down 7 3/4 cents; Jul 14 Corn closed at $4.99, down 8 1/2 cents.

Wheat

The wheat market closed sharply lower for a second successive session. The US will lose it's place as the world's largest wheat exporter to Europe in 2014/15, the USDA reported on Friday. That's despite Europe's exports next season dropping from the 2013/14 record 30 MMT to 27.5 MMT. US exports will decline even more sharply, down 21% to 26 MMT, they said.


US markets may be coming to terms with the fact that despite weather-related problems of it's own, the wheat crop in many other places around the world is looking in pretty good shape. Recent price rises may effectively be pricing US wheat out of the global market.

The US will export 54% of all the wheat it grew in 2013/14, the USDA estimate. In 2014/15 that proportion will drop to 48.7% based on Friday's forecasts. Weekly export inspections came in at 623,157 MT, taking the total inspected for export so far this season to 29.6 MMT of the USDA's forecast for the 2013/14 marketing year (which finishes at the end of the month) of 31.5 MMT. After the close the USDA reported US winter wheat crop conditions at 30% good/excellent, down a point on a week ago and 2 points down on this time last year. The leading winter wheat state of Kansas is only 13% good/excellent and 56% poor/very poor. The USDA said that 44% of the crop is headed versus the 5-year average of 46%. Spring wheat is 34% planted versus 53% normally. Spring wheat emergence is 12% against 27% for the 5-year average. May 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $7.04 3/4, down 9 1/4 cents; May 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $8.19, down 13 1/2 cents; May 14 MGEX wheat closed at $7.92, down 2 3/4 cents.

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