09-08-2014 05:51 AM | Arable, Cereal, Crops, Market Reports, News

USDA likely to increase yield estimate; wheat market reverses trend



Soycomplex

Beans closed higher on old crop and a bit lower on the new. Weekly export sales of 94,900 MT for 2013/14 and just over 1 MMT for 2014/15 were broadly in line with expectations. China (700,000 MT) and unknown destinations (138,000 MT) were predictably the largest buyers on the new crop. The USDA also announced 113,000 MT of US beans sold to unknown for 2014/15 shipment under the daily reporting system.


Meal sales were robust at 252,100 MT for 2013/14 (expecting 50-150,000 MT) and 479,000 MT for 2014/15 (expecting 250-450,000 MT). MDA CropCast estimated the US 2014 soybean crop at just over 100 MMT, unchanged from last week and 15.3% higher than last year. That's 3.677 billion bushels in foreign money and also easily a record volume. The USDA will give us their latest estimates next week. The average trade guess is 3.823 billion bushels, from within a range of estimates of 3.70-3.95 billion. The July WASDE estimate was 3.8 billion and 2013 production was 3.289 billion. Conab trimmed their forecast for the 2013/14 Brazilian soybean crop to 85.7 MMT from a previous estimate of 86.27 MMT. Oil World estimated the EU-28 2014 rapeseed crop at a record 23.1 MMT, up from a previous estimate of 22.7 MMT and versus 2013 production of 21.3 MMT. Aug 14 Soybeans closed at $12.50, up 13 cents; Nov 14 Soybeans closed at $10.78, down 2 cents; Aug 14 Soybean Meal closed at $390.60, up $2.60; Aug 14 Soybean Oil closed at 35.62, down 17 points.

Corn


The corn market closed around 2-3 cents lower on the outlook for a huge US corn crop this year. The USDA are likely to increase their yield estimate for that next week, although the trade thinks it unlikely that they will "go the whole hog" in one go. Last month's figure was 165 bu/acre, but many estimates are now well above 170 bu/acre. Lanworth were today said to have suggested yields could average 174.8 bu/acre, almost 10 bu/acre up on the USDA's July estimate. MDA CropCast today increased their forecast for the US crop by 5 MMT from a week ago due to largely favourable conditions in most areas.


That takes production up to a record 366.9 MMT (14.444 billion bushels), a 5.5% increase on last year's previous all time high output. The average trade guess for what the USDA will say next week is production at 14.253 billion bushels, from within a range of estimates of 13.988–14.778 billion. The July WASDE estimate was 13.86 billion and 2013 production was 13.925 billion. The average yield estimate for this report is just over 170 bu/acre. Weekly US corn export sales came in at 120,900 MT of old crop (expecting 100-200,000 MT) and 758,700 MT of new crop (expecting 800 TMT to 1 MMT). Conab forecast the Brazilian total corn crop at 78.55 MMT versus a previous estimate of 78.20 MMT. The Brazilian Ministry said that they will start to auction corn from next week. South Korea MFG bought 110,000 MT of optional origin corn for Dec-Jan shipment in a tender. Sep 14 Corn closed at $3.59 1/2, down 3 3/4 cents; Dec 14 Corn closed at $3.71 1/4, down 3 cents.

Wheat

The wheat market reversed the trend of six higher sessions, giving up some of the "Putin premium" that had been built in. Weekly export sales came in at 590,900 MT versus the expected 600-800,000 MT. Conab estimated Brazil's wheat crop this year at 7.50 MMT versus a previous estimate of 7.40 MMT. That's a strong rebound on production of only 5.3 MMT 12 months ago, and also 1.2 MMT above the USDA's current estimate.


With a better Argentine wheat crop also expected/hoped for in 2014/15 then Brazil's imports from the US could decrease significantly. There's talk of better wheat production potential in South Australia and Western Australia than ABARES currently predict. On a national level the NAB see the Australian wheat crop at 26 MMT this year, down only modestly from 27 MMT a year ago, and much better than ABARES current forecast of 24.54 MMT. The Tunisian grain crop in 2014/15 is seen more than 150% up on last year's drought-ravaged crop at 3.2 MMT. Rusagrotrans raised their forecast for the Russian 2014/15 grain crop to 100.9-103.3 MMT. They didn't put a specific figure on wheat production, but the crop there certainly seems to be getting larger. Japan bought 154,245 MT of mostly US origin milling wheat for Sep–Oct shipment. The FAO estimated the 2014/15 global wheat crop at 707.2 MMT versus a previous estimate of 702.7 MMT. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that growers there had only forward sold 64.79% of their 2013/14 wheat crop versus 96.93% a year ago. Sep 14 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.61 1/2, down 6 1/2 cents; Sep 14 KCBT Wheat closed at $6.46 1/4, down 10 cents; Sep 14 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.34 1/2, down 8 1/2 cents.

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