28 February 2015 | Online since 2003



Ukraine tensions keeping grain markets nervous


EU grains closed mostly lower, in a quiet, low volume start to the week.

The day ended with May 14 London wheat down GBP0.20/tonne to GBP169.80/tonne, and with new crop Nov 14 London wheat closing GBP1.00/tonne lower at GBP158.75/tonne. May 14 Paris wheat closed down EUR2.25/tonne at EUR215.00/tonne, Jun 14 Paris corn was also down EUR2.25/tonne at EUR185.00/tonne, whilst May 14 Paris rapeseed corrected some of the steep losses of the latter half of last week, ending EUR6.50/tonne higher to close at EUR402.50/tonne.

Fresh fundamental news was generally lacking, although the ever present Ukraine tensions are keeping the market nervous.

The mayor of Kharkiv, Ukraine, was shot and critically wounded as pro-Russian separatists continue to run amok in the east of the country. The US apparently froze the assets of, and imposed visa bans on, several powerful Russian businessmen and politicians, said to be close to President Putin. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is also warning Russia of sanctions over its failure to help stem the Ukraine crisis, saying it has ignored the steps recently agreed in Geneva to stem the unrest.

Amidst all the political gesturing though, for the time being at least, exports and spring planting appear to be continuing more or less as normal.

APK Inform said that Ukraine seaports had exported 455.5 TMT of grains last week, up 17% from the 390 TMT shipped out the previous week. That total included 284.4 TMT (up from 176.7 TMT a week previously) of corn and 148.7 TMT (versus 154.5 TMT) of wheat.

Ukraine's 2013/14 marketing year to date grain exports now stand at more than 29 MMT, versus a full season Ministry target of 33 MMT. APK Inform's 2013/14 grain export estimate of 31.1 MMT may prove to be closer to the mark. Either one would be a record, in fact 29 MMT is already an all-time high.

Early spring grain planting in Ukraine, excluding corn, is already over at 2.6 million hectares. Growers there have also sown 2.07 million ha of corn, which is 40% of plan, along with 2.64 million ha of sunflower (61%) and 350k ha of soybeans (21%), according to the Ag Ministry. Agritel said that recent rains had created good sowing conditions.

Russia's Ag Ministry said that the country had planted 4.8 million hectares of spring grains as of last Friday, which is around 15% of the intended area.

Rusagrotans said that Russia's 2014/15 grain harvest would come in somewhere between 92 MMT and 96.2 MMT, slightly lower than the Russian Ag Minister's forecast of 95-97 MMT. They said that production in the southern, Volga and Urals regions would be higher than last year, and output would be lower in the Black Earth and Siberian regions.

In Belarus, early spring grains have been planted on 1 million ha, which is 94% of plan, along with 435.6k ha of corn (55% of plan). Kazakhstan's early spring plantings meanwhile are said to be almost 39% complete.

The 15 day weather forecast for the coming period sees almost all of Europe wetter than normal, with the exception of western France, and Spain and Portugal. Eastern Europe, Ukraine and most of Russia should also see better than normal precipitation, although the GFS model sees Kazakhstan staying mostly dry.

US winter wheat in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas will continue to receive precipitation totals below normal, fuelling further yield loss ideas there. The USDA will report on US winter wheat conditions later tonight, with further deterioration on last week's 34% good/excellent seemingly likely.

We will also get to find out what the state of play is with corn planting in the US. Last week the USDA said that only 6% of the 2014 US corn crop was in the ground, versus the 5-year average of 14%. A Reuters poll puts the range of trade estimates for tonight's report at 17-28%. I'd be at the low end of that range, possibly even below it.

Download



Comments


No comments posted yet. Be the first to post a comment

To post comment without approval login or register

Display name

Please enter your name

Email (optional)
Comment

Please enter your comment

Post Comment

Your comment submitted successfully.Please wait for admin approval.

Some error on your process.Please try one more time.



Jobs


11 February 2015
Quality Manager
In order to apply for this role, you must have previous experience of working as a Quality Manager, a dairy background is pre...

9 February 2015
Baling plant operator required
The farm has horses and help with these will be required from time to time. During the busy summer months there will also be ...

12 February 2015
Home Care Coordinator
Excellent organisational, administration and dairy management skills. Home Care Coordinator - 30hrs - Lanarkshire - Competiti...

17 February 2015
Administration Apprentice (Vendor Management)
Business Administration, Accountancy, Agriculture, Construction, Customer Services, Dental Nursing, Electrical, Engineering, ...

17 February 2015
Receptionist
The role is primarily to reception maternity and gynaecology clinics but will also involve childrens clinics both at Barnet a...




Top stories you may have missed
2 February 2015 | Arable
Is EU membership damaging UK farming?

Is EU membership damaging UK farming?

Membership of the EU is damaging the British farming industry, according to...


29 January 2015 | Machinery and Equipment
Drones 'rapidly changing' agriculture

Drones 'rapidly changing' agriculture

BASIS has launched an accreditation for pilots of Unmanned Aerial Systems (...


23 January 2015 | Arable
UK wheat yields have potential to double

UK wheat yields have potential to double

UK wheat yields have theoretical potential to more than double over the nex...


23 January 2015 | Machinery and Equipment
Crowds flock to LAMMA 2015

Crowds flock to LAMMA 2015

Britain’s farmers flocked to Peterborough for the first day of LAMMA’15 to ...


22 January 2015 | Cattle
Don't blame supermarkets for milk crisis...

Don't blame supermarkets for milk crisis...

The crisis in the dairy industry is not the fault of supermarkets, accordin...


16 January 2015 | CLA
Families affected by HS2 face 'major wor...

Families affected by HS2 face 'major wor...

Transport Minister Baroness Kramer visited three rural businesses in Cheshi...


16 January 2015 | Machinery and Equipment
John Deere unveil new 6R tractor range

John Deere unveil new 6R tractor range

Spearheading the John Deere range of mid-size tractors from Mannheim, the n...


14 January 2015 | Animal Health
Monthly TB checks more effective than ba...

Monthly TB checks more effective than ba...

Regular testing for bovine TB could significantly reduce the number of infe...


12 January 2015 | News
Government regulations hampering UK agri...

Government regulations hampering UK agri...

Single-issue policy-making threatens to hamper, not help, the progress of U...


8 January 2015 | Cattle
2015: The year ahead for the beef market

2015: The year ahead for the beef market

2014 has been a “rocky old year” for the beef industry but better prices ar...