Corn: The market closed higher on the day and versus last Friday. In Chicago
the Mar 17 contract closed at the best levels on a front month since late June
2016. The USDA this week raised their estimate for the size of the global 2016/17
crop by more than 2 MMT to 1040 MMT. However they also upped consumption by
6 MMT and cut carryout by 2.5 MMT. Chinese corn usage was projected 4 MMT larger,
mostly from increased feed usage. The USDA also reduced the size of this season's
EU-28 corn crop, marking that down to 60.3 MMT, with ending stocks cut to 4.75
MMT, the lowest level since 2007. Record corn production for 2016/17 reflected
larger crops in both Ukraine and Mexico more than offsetting lower production
in the EU, they said. "Robust demand in both Iran and Vietnam support a
higher volume of global exports. Moreover, a smaller barley crop in Iran boosts
the demand for (other) imported feedstuffs," they added. Mar 17 Corn settled
at $3.74 1/2, up 5 cents; May 17 Corn settled at $3.82, up 4 3/4 cents. For
the week that puts Mar 17 corn up 9 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher, with Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settling at $4.49,
up 5 1/2 cents; Mar 17 KCBT Wheat ending at $4.60 1/2, up 9 1/4 cents and Mar
17 MGEX Wheat finishing the day at $5.72 1/2, up 4 cents. For the week that
puts nearby Chicago wheat up 18 3/4 cents, with the Kansas market 20 cents higher
and Minneapolis up 14/14 cents. For Chicago wheat this was a more than 7-month
closing high for a nearby contract. In their February WASDE report the USDA
said that "prices for most wheat classes were up during the month of January,
underpinned by 2017/18 US crop prospects as well as a weakening dollar."
They also noted that "the growing gap between HRS and most other wheat
classes is indicative of tight supplies of high-protein wheat in the global
market." US 2016/17 wheat exports were raised 1.5 MMT to 27.5 MMT, whilst
Russia's were lowered 0.5 MMT to 28.5 MMT. World ending stocks were lowered
from 253.3 MMT to 248.6 MMT.
Corn: Corn ended with Mar 17 Corn at $3.65 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents, and May 17
Corn settling at $3.72 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents. For the week that puts Mar 17
up 2 3/4 cents and May 17 up 3 cents. Mato Grosso’s second corn crop planting
is currently at 27% completed vs. 11% last year. Argentina’s Buenos Aires
Grain Exchange estimated their crop to be 99.3% planted, while production is
estimated by Informa to be 35.2 MMT, down from the 36.0 MMT forecast previously.
The EU Commission pegged EU corn ending stocks for 2016/17 at the lowest in
9 years. "At 9.9 MMT, the latest estimate is below the levels recorded
in 2012/13 and is the result of two consecutive years with below average output,
against robust demand," said the HGCA.
Wheat: Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.30 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents; Mar 17 KCBT
Wheat settled at $4.40 1/2, down 3 cents; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.58
1/4, down 2 3/4 cents. For the week that puts Chicago wheat 9 3/4 cents higher,
with Kansas up 6 1/4 cents and Minneapolis down 1 3/4 cents. Managed money in
Chicago continues to hold a significant short position, seemingly limiting downside.
Positive factors for wheat include reduced winter wheat acres, dry extended
forecast for the Plains, and the reduction of spring wheat acres by as much
as 1.5 million acres (according to the University of North Dakota), said Water
Corn: The corn market closed a touch lower. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange
estimated Argentina corn planting at 98.3% complete. The market is starting
to get worried about a trade was with Mexico. With President Trump insisting
that Mexico will foot the bill for the controversial wall between the two nations
- and Mexico insisting that it won't - it needs remembering that the latter
take almost 25% of all US corn exports, a very significant volume. A timely
start to the soybean harvest in Brazil suggests good early progress can be made
with safrinha corn planting. Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.62 1/2, down 1 1/4 cents;
May 17 Corn settled at $3.69 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents. Mar 17 corn was down 7 cents
on the week.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower. It's worth noting that near neighbour
Mexico account for around 12% of US wheat exports. Analysts will be keeping
an eye on Russian weather this weekend with a strong cold spell expected. EU
wheat exports are running 7% lower year-on-year. Russia struck a clean sweep
in the latest Egyptian tender, winning a 410,000 MT order. Japan’s Ag
Ministry reported that 60,610 MT of US wheat were purchased in their weekly
tender. Rusagrotrans predicted Russia's Feb wheat exports at similar levels
to a year ago. Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.20 1/2, down 6 1/2 cents; Mar
17 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.34 1/4, down 6 cents; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled
at $5.60, down 6 3/4 cents. Mar 17 CBOT wheat was down 7 3/4 cents on the week.
Corn: The market
closed around a cent higher. The USDA reported export sales of 110,400 MT of
US corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/17 marketing year.
Trade ideas for tomorrow's weekly export sales are pretty strong at 1.0 to 1.5
MMT. US weekly ethanol production data topped trade expectations at an impressive
1.054 billion barrels/day, setting another new weekly record volume. Ukraine
think tank UNIAN forecast the country's 2016/17 corn exports rising to 20.9
MMT this season. Worries remain over the relationship between the US and China,
especially vis-a-vis corn, ahead of the inauguration of President Trump tomorrow.
Whilst Chinese US corn imports are only minimal, they have been a significant
importer of US DDGs and ethanol in the last 12 months. The sudden imposition
of anti-dumping import duties threatens to slash this business by half, or more.
Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.66 1/4, up 1 1/4 cents; May 17 Corn settled at $3.73
1/4, up 1 cent.
Wheat: The wheat
market closed mixed, with Kansas down the most, Minneapolis nudging higher,
and Chicago in the middle. Trade forecasts for tomorrow's weekly export sales
report are between 250,000-550,000 MT. Japan bought 117,605 MT of US/Canadian
wheat in their regular weekly tender. Taiwan are in the market or 93,600 MT
of what will probably turn out to be US milling wheat, Morocco are reported
to have bought 363,636 MT of EU soft wheat in a tender. Jordan bought 50,000
MT of hard wheat. Egypt are tendering for wheat for Feb 22 - Mar 3 shipment,
having bought a mixture of mainly Russian and Romanian wheat recently. Results
of that are expected Friday afternoon. The Buenos Aries Grain Exchange estimated
final wheat production in Argentina this year at 15 MMT, up 39% on a year ago
largely due to increased plantings. Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.23 1/2,
down 7 1/2 cents; Mar 17 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.42 1/4, down 10 cents; Mar
17 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.76 1/2, up 3 cents.
News that Morocco bought almost 360 TMT of US soft wheat under a preferential
tariff quota agreement was welcomed by the US wheat market yesterday. Weekly
export inspections, whilst not exactly brilliant at 344,436 MT, were still more
than 31% on the previous week. Weekly export inspections for beans were a respectable
1.4 MMT, which those for corn were 888 TMT.
Ahead of Friday's Trump inauguration, China recently raising its import tariffs
on DDGs means that there has been talk of a similar import tariff move on ethanol,
which is also mostly sourced from the US. China are of course desperately seeking
ways to encourage the off take of their own domestic corn stockpile is any which
way, shape or form.
There's talk of private estimates for Argentine soybean production coming in
at only 51-53 MMT versus the current 57 MMT from the USDA, mostly due to unsown
acreage due to flooding.
Corn: Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.58 1/4, up 1 cent; May 17 Corn settled at $3.64
3/4, up 3/4 cent.
Wheat: Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.26 1/4, up 7 1/2 cents; Mar 17 KCBT
Wheat settled at $4.44 3/4, up 13 cents; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.74,
up 12 1/2 cents.
Corn: The market closed around a cent or so easier. News that China is to impose
an anti-dumping tax on US DDGs has the market uneasy. JCI estimates China's
DDGs imports may drop 80-90% from the 6.8 MMT imported in 2015. Friendly was
news from the US Energy Dept that weekly US ethanol production beat last week's
record at 1,049 billion barrels/day last week. AgroConsult raised their view
on Brazilian corn production this year from 92 MMT to 94.9 MMT. The Argentine
Ag Ministry projected their 2016/17 corn crop would be 44.51 MMT. Trade estimates
for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are in the region of 500,000-800,000
MT. Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.57 1/4, down 1 cent; May 17 Corn settled at $3.64,
down 1 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mostly lower heading into tomorrow's USDA report.
Talk of much-needed rain for the southern plains this weekend leans bearish.
CONAB estimated Brazil's wheat imports at 5.95 MMT versus 5.1 MMT a month ago.
Argentina will be the main beneficiary of that. Forecasts for tomorrow's weekly
export sales for wheat are only around 250,000-450,000 MT for 2016/17, with
maybe another 50,000 MT of new crop. The trade will be keep to see what the
USDA have to say with regards to US winter wheat plantings. The average trade
guess is for all wheat plantings to have dropped 2 million to 34.1 million acres,
but some estimates are as low as 31.7 million. Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settled at
$4.18 3/4, down 8 cents; Mar 17 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.31 3/4, down 6 1/2
cents; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.61 1/4, up 1/4 cent.
Corn: Corn ended they day around a cent or two easier. The USDA reported 241,600
MT of US corn sold to unknown destinations, 91,300 MT for 2016/17 delivery,
and 150,300 MT for 2017/18 delivery, under the daily reporting system. There
was also 130,000 MT of old crop sold to Taiwan. CONAB raised its Brazil corn
production forecast to 84.5 MMT (USDA: 86.5 MMT, last year 66.57 MMT.). Dr Cordonnier
went for 86 MMT in his Brazilian estimate; Argentina was lowered 0.5 MMT to
34.5 MMT. The trade is looking for Thursday's US corn yield figure to come in
anywhere between 173.4 to 176.1 bushels per acre versus the December USDA figure
of 175.3 bu/acre. Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.58 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents; May 17
Corn settled at $3.65 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed with little change. Japan are tendering for 162,777 MT
of milling wheat from the US and Canada with the results expected Thursday.
Low prices relative to other crops continue to put US wheat acres under pressure.
The range of trade estimates for US winter wheat acreage in Thursday's report
stretches from 31.7 to 36.38 million acres versus last year's 36.13 million
acres. Record/near record yields are being reported out of Eastern Australia.
China sold 375 TMT of the 2.67 MMT of wheat offered up for auction today. Severe
cold weather in Ukraine could offer some threat to winter wheat already rated
17% weak/thinned. Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.26 3/4, down 1/2 cent; Mar
17 KCBT Wheat settled at $4.38 1/4, down 1/4 cent; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled
at $5.61 1/4, up 1 1/2 cents.
Corn: The market closed a couple of cents or so higher. Weekly export inspections
of 876,562 MT were up 36% from the previous week and 59% larger than the same
week a year ago. The USDA also reported an export sale of 112,500 MT of corn
to for 2016/17 delivery to an unknown destination. The trade is anticipating
A Brazilian corn production number of up 600 TMT to 87.1 MMT, with Argentina
down 400 TMT from December to 36.1 MMT in the WASDE report. A Bloomberg survey
of trade analysts has the average pre-report estimate for December 1 Corn Stocks
in all positions at 12.323 billion bushels. Taiwan's MFG bought 65,000 MT of
US/Brazilian/Argentine or South African corn for March/April shipment in a tender.
Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.60, up 2 cents; May 17 Corn settled at $3.67, up 2
Wheat: Wheat finished firmer, helped by the USDA announcing a flash sale of
120,000 MT of HRS wheat for 2016/17 delivery to an unknown destination. Weekly
export inspections of only 260,555 MT weren't impressive though. The trade is
looking for US all wheat stocks to average 2.056 billion bu in the Quarterly
Grain Stocks report due out on Thursday. Winter wheat plantings of only 34.139
million acres, down from 36.137 million last year and the lowest since 1970
lean supportive in the longer-term. Some are starting to fret over very cold
temperatures in Southern Russia and Ukraine. Temperatures fell to -25 C near
Moscow overnight. Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.27 1/4, up 4 cents; Mar 17
KCBT Wheat settled at $4.38 1/2, up 5 cents; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.59
3/4, up 7 cents.
Corn: The market closed around 3 cents lower. Weekly export sales came in at
429,246 MT, towards the low end of expectations, but this was for a holiday
week so perhaps can be excused. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange says corn plantings
will be 4.9 million ha, unchanged from last week, and up 27% from last year.
They have corn planting progress at 82.9% complete compared to 71.3% last week.
Others are scaling back on their planting and hence production ideas due to
wet weather/flooding. Informa cut their view on Argentine production, down slightly
from the previous estimate of 36.5 MMT to 36.0 MMT. Mar 17 Corn settled at $3.58,
down 3 1/4 cents; May 17 Corn settled at $3.64 3/4, down 2 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed mixed. The USDA announced the sale of 100,000
MT of hard red winter wheat for delivery to unknown destinations during the
2016/17 marketing year. That helped temper the news that weekly export sales
of only 183,700 MT were below modest trade expectations of 200-500 TMT. Farm
Futures magazine forecast US winter wheat seedings of 34.8 million acres, the
lowest total since 1913 as the low price/profit outlook encourages switching
to other crops. Informa forecast Argentine wheat production at 15 MMT, up from
their previous estimate of 13 MMT. They have been flexing their muscles lately
on the international export arena, and another 2 MMT will only make matters
worse. Mar 17 CBOT Wheat settled at $4.23 1/4, down 3 cents; Mar 17 KCBT Wheat
settled at $4.33 1/2, down 1 cent; Mar 17 MGEX Wheat settled at $5.52 3/4, up
2 1/2 cents.