Farminguk
23 September 2017 | Online since 2003

EU Reports

12 March 2017 | EU Reports
W/e 10/03/17 -- EU grains closed mostly lower on the day, but mixed for the week.

The day ended with Mar 17 London wheat up GBP1.05/tonne at GBP146.65/tonne, Mar 17 Paris wheat was down EUR4.25/tonne at EUR167.75/tonne, Jun 17 Paris corn was EUR1.50/tonne lower at EUR172.50/tonne and May 17 Paris rapeseed fell EUR2.75/tonne to EUR402.25/tonne.

For the week that places nearby London wheat GBP1.10/tonne higher, with Paris wheat down EUR6.25/tonne, corn EUR4.25/tonne firmer and rapeseed down EUR6.50/tonne.

A weaker sterling this week has supported London wheat, in addition to tightness in old crop supply.

"The vast majority of GB arable crops have come into the spring in good condition, according to the latest ADAS crop report. The relatively dry and mild conditions during the autumn and winter allowed pesticide applications to be made as planned and there are few weed, pest or disease issues to report at this stage in the season," said the HGCA.

They did however report a drop in overall winter plantings, including an English and Welsh wheat area decline of 5% to 1.612 million ha, along with a 2% fall in barley sowings and a 1% decrease in the area given over to winter OSR (to 538k ha).

Many pundits say that the actual sown area is even lower, especially for OSR where Origin Enterprises this week came up with a figure of only 500,000 ha for the UK as a whole, "a reduction of approximately 10% on last year," they said.

"Farmers have been deterred from sowing the oilseed by heavy losses in many areas to cabbage stem flea beetle, following the introduction of EU curbs on neonicotinoid insecticides," reported Agrimoney.

In other news, Brussels reported 235 TMT of soft wheat exports this past week, taking the season to date total to 16.5 MMT, down 13% on 19.05 MMT this time last year.

Cumulative EU barley exports so far this season stand at 3.2 MMT, down 59% from a year ago, whilst cumulative EU corn imports of 7.4 MMT are down 24%.

On the international stage, we can report a 720,000 MT hard wheat tender from Saudi Arabia.



27 February 2017 | EU Reports
W/e 24/02/17 -- EU grains closed the week with Mar 17 London wheat down GBP3.20/tonne from last Friday at GBP143.50/tonne, Mar 17 Paris wheat was unchanged on the week at EUR171.50/tonne, Mar 17 Paris corn was also unchanged on the week at EUR171.25/tonne and May 17 Paris rapeseed ended the week EUR13.00/tonne lower at EUR410.25/tonne.

A firmer sterling outlook, and the knowledge that UK feed wheat prices are already among the most expensive in the world, leans bearish for London wheat.

Paris wheat meanwhile remains in a sideways to modestly upwards trend helped by euro weakness which is fostering ideas that exports from other nations than France (such as Germany) will be more buoyant in the second half of the season than the market had been expecting.

EU soft wheat exports have certainly looked like they are slowing up this past couple of weeks though. Cumulative exports to date stand at 15.76 MMT, up by only around 81 TMT on a week ago, a net downturn of 11% from 17.642 MT at the same point in 2015/16. EU total all wheat exports for the full season are estimated by the USDA to decline 26.5%, so a second half downturn is certainly to be expected.

Trade attention is also starting to focus on 2017/18. According to the February issue of the JRC MARS crop monitoring bulletin for Europe, this winter is finishing with no major constraints to winter crops.

"Rain would be welcomed in large parts of southern Germany, southern Sweden, the Czech Republic and the Baltic countries, to restore soil water reserves and groundwater as spring approaches," they say.

"These regions have recorded a persistent rain deficit, with less than 10 mm of precipitation during the analysis period. Nevertheless, these dry conditions generally do not present an immediate concern for crops," they note.

"Frost-kill damage remains limited despite a persistent cold spell throughout January in central and eastern Europe, which has led to minimum temperatures of around -15°C, and reaching values below -20°C in many areas," they add.

Ukraine exported 28.65 MMT of grains in 2016/17 to February 22, report UkrAgroConsult. This volume included 13.33 MMT of wheat, 10.53 MMT of corn and 4.64 MMT of barley.

Egypt's GASC said that they'd signed an agreement to import 360,000 MT of Russian and Ukrainian wheat for Mar 21 - Apr 1 shipment. The cheapest Russian price reported was $196.50/tonne FOB versus $195.90 FOB for the Ukraine origin material.

The IGC were unchanged on their global 2016/17 wheat production forecast from a month ago at 752 MMT. They did however up corn output again, this time by 4 MMT to 1049 MMT.

"Conditions for 2017/18 winter crops in the northern hemisphere remained mostly favourable. Only a small fall in all-wheat harvested area is anticipated, but with a projected drop in average yields, the next world harvest is seen retreating by 2% y/y (year-on-year)," they added.



12 February 2017 | EU Reports
W/e 10/02/17 -- EU grains closed mostly higher on the day and for the week.

The day ended with Jan 17 London wheat up GBP0.40/tonne at GBP147.80/tonne, Mar 17 Paris wheat was unchanged at EUR171.75/tonne, Mar 17 Paris corn was up EUR0/.25/tonne at EUR173.00/tonne and May 17 Paris rapeseed rose EUR3.25/tonne to EUR421.75/tonne.

For the week that places nearby London wheat GBP0.45/tonne higher, with Paris wheat up EUR2.50/tonne, corn EUR1.50/tonne firmer and rapeseed up EUR9.00/tonne.

The USDA this week cut their estimate for the size of the 2016/17 global wheat crop by more than 4 MMT to 748.2 MMT and raised consumption by 0.5 MMT to 740.4 MMT. World ending stocks were lowered from 253.3 MMT to 248.6 MMT.

That helped Chicago wheat futures climb to more than 7 month highs, supporting the European market.

The USDA also reduced the size of this season's EU-28 corn crop, marking that down to 60.3 MMT, with ending stocks cut to 4.75 MMT, the lowest level since 2007.

Brussels reported 215 TMT worth of EU soft wheat exports this week, taking the cumulative total so far this season to 15.1 MMT, a 7% decline year-on-year

IKAR said that they expect 2017/18 Russian wheat production at 67.5 MMT, down from their estimate of 73.3 MMT for this season, but see exports holding steady at around 28 MMT.

UK prices remain expensive compared to the rest of the world, reflecting relatively tight availability in the face of strong demand from the biothethanol sector.

"Wheat used by the GB milling industry (including starch and bioethanol) over the first half of the season (Jul-Dec), totalled 3.65 MMT, according to latest data published by Defra...this is 10% higher than the same period last season and the highest amount of wheat milled at this point on records going back to 1997," noted the HGCA.



7 February 2017 | EU Reports
W/e 03/02/17 -- EU grains closed the week with Mar 17 London wheat down GBP1.00/tonne from last Friday at GBP147.35/tonne, Mar 17 Paris wheat was down EUR0.25/tonne to EUR169.25/tonne, Mar 17 Paris corn was down EUR0.75/tonne at EUR170.50/tonne and May 17 Paris rapeseed ended the week EUR5.25/tonne lower at EUR412.75/tonne.

"UK old crop wheat market recorded marginal declines last week mainly driven by further currency volatility, while the domestic new crop market showed small increases on the week," said the HGCA.

"From a global perspective, US grain markets closed up on the week, driven by a combination of factors including strong bioethanol demand for maize," they added.

EU corn stocks for the end of the season, at 9.9 MMT, were pegged at the lowest in over nine years by the EU Commission, they noted. This is viewed as supportive for EU wheat prices.

Saudi Arabia bought 1.5 MMT of feed barley in a tender for shipment between March and May.

Strategie Grains cut their monthly estimate for 2017/18 EU rapeseed production by just over 0.5 MMT to 21.56 MMT due to severe cold weather, specifically citing damage to the crop in Eastern Europe.

Statistics Canada placed total wheat stocks there as at 31 December 2016 at 25.03 MMT, over 800 MT above the average trade expectation.



29 January 2017 | EU Reports
W/E 27/01/17 -- EU grains closed narrowly mixed Friday with Jan 17 London wheat up GBP0.05/tonne at GBP148.35/tonne, Mar 17 Paris wheat down EUR0.50/tonne at EUR169.50/tonne, Mar 17 Paris corn unchanged at EUR171.25/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed up EUR0.50/tonne to EUR428.25/tonne.

For the week Jan 17 London wheat was up GBP0.60/tonne, Mar 17 Paris wheat was down EUR0.25/tonne, Mar 17 Paris corn rose EUR1.25/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was up EUR3.25/tonne.

London wheat prices remain firm, despite a firmer sterling this week on robust UK growth. This "likely reflects the tightness in UK supplies compared to demand this season," say the HGCA.

EU soft wheat exports are now running at 13.9 MMT, down 1 MMT or 7% on a year ago, according to the latest figures from Brussels. The EU also awarded this week 83,596 MT of Ukrainian wheat imports under a special annual tariff-free quota deal.

EU barley exports total 2.5 MMT, whilst corn imports stand at 6.0 MMT.

Egypt's GASC bought 410,000 MT of Russian wheat in a tender.

Rusagrotrans forecast Russia's Feb grain exports at 2.3-2.4 MMT versus 2.75 MMT a year previously. Wheat exports will make up 1.70-1.85 MMT of that total, a similar volume to that of Feb 2016.



20 January 2017 | EU Reports
19/01/17 -- EU grains closed mostly lower on the day.

The day ended with Jan 17 London wheat down GBP1.40/tonne at GBP147.00/tonne, Mar 17 Paris wheat was down EUR0.25/tonne at EUR169.50/tonne, Mar 17 Paris corn was unchanged at EUR169.50/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed rose EUR2.50/tonne to EUR420.75/tonne.

The latest customs data from Brussels shows EU soft wheat exports running 3% lower than year ago levels at 13.6 MMT. A continuation of this slowdown is expected in the second half of the season, with total final all wheat exports likely to be in the region of 25.5 MMT versus 35.7 MMT a year ago, for a drop of 28.6% say the USDA.

French analysts Strategie Grains forecast next season's EU 2017/18 soft wheat exports at 26.5 MMT in it's first forecast of the year, flagging a dent in production hopes after this month's cold snap, note Agrimoney. (The EU Commission have this season's soft wheat only exports at 23 MMT versus an average of 32.0 MMT/year in the three seasons to 2015/16).

"Strategie Grains also factored in an EU soft wheat harvest of 143.8 MMT this year, a downgrade of 1.2 MMT on the previous estimate. The downgraded figure still represents a sharp recovery, of 7.9 MMT, on the 2016 result," Agrimoney however note.

On the international tender front, Jordan bought 50,000 MT of hard wheat in a tender for 100,000 MT, and are tendering for 50,0000 MT of feed barley. Taiwan are in the market for 93,600 MT of what will probably turn out to be US milling wheat, Morocco are reported to have bought 363,636 MT of EU soft wheat in a tender.

Egypt's GASC are back in the market today tendering for wheat for Feb 22 - Mar 3 shipment, having bought a mixture of Russian and Romanian wheat recently. Results of that are expected Friday afternoon.

A Ukraine think tank (UNIAN) estimated 2016/17 grain exports at a record 43.7 MMT this season, including 20.9 MMT of corn 16.5 MMT of wheat and 5.3 MMT of barley. Last season's grain export record was 39.4 MMT.



18 January 2017 | EU Reports
18/01/17 -- EU grains trade mixed, but mostly lower around midday Wednesday. Markets are a little nervous ahead of the inauguration of Donald Trump this Friday. "Important changes in interest rates and on currencies are not to be ruled out in the next few weeks," said Agritel.

May 17 London wheat trades GBP0.50/tonne higher at GBP150.25/tonne, May 17 Paris wheat is down EUR0.25/tonne to EUR172.75/tonne, Mar 17 Paris corn is also down EUR0.25/tonne at EUR168.75/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed trades EUR1.00/tonne lower at EUR417.75/tonne.

London wheat is boosted once again by a lower sterling which trades at 1.23 against the US dollar and a little over 1.15 versus the euro.

Any possible damage to crops in eastern Europe, southern Russia and Ukraine due to the recent cold spell is being largely played down/ignored by the market for the time being.

Ukraine says that winter grains were sown on 7.2 million ha, and place emergence at 95% on 6.8 million ha of that. Of the emerged area 83% of the crops are said to be in in good/satisfactory condition and 17% weak/thinned.

Customs data shows Russian seaports exporting more than 456 TMT of grains last week, including 234 TMT of wheat.

Morocco are said to have bought a significant volume of US wheat under a preferential duty agreement between the two countries. They are now said to be tendering for EU wheat also.



13 January 2017 | EU Reports
12/01/17 -- EU grains closed mostly higher following the late release of the January WASDE numbers from the USDA.

At the close Jan 17 London wheat was up GBP1.50/tonne at GBP145.90/tonne, Mar 17 Paris wheat was EUR0.75/tonne higher at EUR169.75/tonne, Mar 17 Paris corn was down a euro at EUR167.50/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was up EUR0.25/tonne to EUR414.50/tonne.

Trade was quiet awaiting the USDA data late in European trading hours.

That put the US HRW wheat area for the 2017 harvest 23.3 million acres, which is 12% lower than a year ago. All wheat acres were estimated at 32.38 million ha, down 3.75 million from last year and at the lower end of the range of trade forecasts. This is the second lowest winter wheat area on record, and the lowest since 1909.

Global wheat production, already at a record, was raised even higher this month mainly on larger crops in Argentina, the EU, and Russia.

Global trade was boosted to a new record with stronger import demand from several Asian countries and Brazil. Larger exports for Australia, Argentina, and the EU were partially offset by a decrease for Canada, they said.

EU 2016/17 production was increased 350 TMT to 144.32 MMT, and exports nudged 500 TMT higher to 25.5 MMT. This year's Russian crop was upped 500 TMT to 72.5 MMT.

World ending stocks for 2016/17 were increased 1.15 MMT to 253.3 MMT. Ending stocks-to-use ratio for 2016/17 is now projected at 34.2% versus 34.1% in December and 33.8% a year previously.



12 January 2017 | EU Reports
11/01/17 -- EU grains closed mixed on the day, with sterling weakness supporting London wheat.

The day ended with Jan 17 London wheat up GBP1.05/tonne at GBP144.40/tonne, Mar 17 Paris wheat was down EUR0.75/tonne at EUR169.00/tonne, Mar 17 Paris corn was down EUR0.50/tonne to EUR168.50/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed fell EUR0.25/tonne to EUR414.25/tonne.

The pound fell as low as 1.15 versus the euro, a level last seen two months ago. It was also down to 1.22 against the US dollar.

It's a big day for the grain markets tomorrow, with the USDA due to release their first world supply and demand numbers of the new year.

The figures could be unusually important for US winter wheat plantings. "Analysts expect this figure to show a drop of 2.0m acres year on year to 34.1m acres, the lowest since 1913, but with some ideas that the figure could be lower – substantially," said Agrimoney.

Closer to home, FranceAgriMer revised upwards their estimate for French soft wheat exports to non-EU destinations, up from 4.7 MMT to 4.8 MMT, but that's still massively below last season's 12.6 MMT figure.

Ending stock were cut to 2.365 MMT from the 2.683 MMT seen last month.

Turkey tendered for 230,000 MT of EU high quality milling wheat.



11 January 2017 | EU Reports
10/01/17 -- EU grains closed mostly lower Tuesday. Fresh news was thin on the ground.

At the finish Jan 17 London wheat was down GBP0.80/tonne at GBP143.35/tonne, Mar 17 Paris wheat fell EUR1.25/tonne to EUR169.75/tonne, Mar 17 Paris corn ended EUR0.75/tonne lower at EUR169.00/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed closed EUR1.75/tonne higher at EUR415.50/tonne.

Ukraine said that it's 2016/17 grain exports had now surpassed 23 MMT, of which 11.5 MMT was wheat ,4.3 MMT barley and 7.1 MMT corn. According to their Ag Ministry exports this full season could total 40 MMT.

The Ukraine weather centre said that 83% of winter crops were in a good to satisfactory condition, and 17% weak/thinned. Current winter snow cover is adequate to protect the bulk of crops against the existing very low temperatures, they said.

Russia experienced a significant slowdown of export pace during December 2016 with 3.3 MMT of cereals shipped which is -0.7 MMT under the November volume or -0.8 MMT below December 2015, noted Agritel.

"More than weather conditions or festivities period, this slowdown is due to the decline of commodities on domestic market implied by the strength of the rouble," they commented.




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