The day ended with Jan 17 London wheat up GBP0.40/tonne at GBP147.80/tonne,
Mar 17 Paris wheat was unchanged at EUR171.75/tonne, Mar 17 Paris corn was up
EUR0/.25/tonne at EUR173.00/tonne and May 17 Paris rapeseed rose EUR3.25/tonne
For the week that places nearby London wheat GBP0.45/tonne higher, with Paris
wheat up EUR2.50/tonne, corn EUR1.50/tonne firmer and rapeseed up EUR9.00/tonne.
The USDA this week cut their estimate for the size of the 2016/17 global wheat
crop by more than 4 MMT to 748.2 MMT and raised consumption by 0.5 MMT to 740.4
MMT. World ending stocks were lowered from 253.3 MMT to 248.6 MMT.
That helped Chicago wheat futures climb to more than 7 month highs, supporting
the European market.
The USDA also reduced the size of this season's EU-28 corn crop, marking that
down to 60.3 MMT, with ending stocks cut to 4.75 MMT, the lowest level since
Brussels reported 215 TMT worth of EU soft wheat exports this week, taking
the cumulative total so far this season to 15.1 MMT, a 7% decline year-on-year
IKAR said that they expect 2017/18 Russian wheat production at 67.5 MMT, down
from their estimate of 73.3 MMT for this season, but see exports holding steady
at around 28 MMT.
UK prices remain expensive compared to the rest of the world, reflecting relatively
tight availability in the face of strong demand from the biothethanol sector.
"Wheat used by the GB milling industry (including starch and bioethanol)
over the first half of the season (Jul-Dec), totalled 3.65 MMT, according to
latest data published by Defra...this is 10% higher than the same period last
season and the highest amount of wheat milled at this point on records going
back to 1997," noted the HGCA.
"UK old crop wheat market recorded marginal declines last week mainly
driven by further currency volatility, while the domestic new crop market showed
small increases on the week," said the HGCA.
"From a global perspective, US grain markets closed up on the week, driven
by a combination of factors including strong bioethanol demand for maize,"
EU corn stocks for the end of the season, at 9.9 MMT, were pegged at the lowest
in over nine years by the EU Commission, they noted. This is viewed as supportive
for EU wheat prices.
Saudi Arabia bought 1.5 MMT of feed barley in a tender for shipment between
March and May.
Strategie Grains cut their monthly estimate for 2017/18 EU rapeseed production
by just over 0.5 MMT to 21.56 MMT due to severe cold weather, specifically citing
damage to the crop in Eastern Europe.
Statistics Canada placed total wheat stocks there as at 31 December 2016 at
25.03 MMT, over 800 MT above the average trade expectation.
For the week Jan 17 London wheat was up GBP0.60/tonne, Mar 17 Paris wheat was
down EUR0.25/tonne, Mar 17 Paris corn rose EUR1.25/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed
was up EUR3.25/tonne.
London wheat prices remain firm, despite a firmer sterling this week on robust
UK growth. This "likely reflects the tightness in UK supplies compared
to demand this season," say the HGCA.
EU soft wheat exports are now running at 13.9 MMT, down 1 MMT or 7% on a year
ago, according to the latest figures from Brussels. The EU also awarded this
week 83,596 MT of Ukrainian wheat imports under a special annual tariff-free
EU barley exports total 2.5 MMT, whilst corn imports stand at 6.0 MMT.
Egypt's GASC bought 410,000 MT of Russian wheat in a tender.
Rusagrotrans forecast Russia's Feb grain exports at 2.3-2.4 MMT versus 2.75
MMT a year previously. Wheat exports will make up 1.70-1.85 MMT of that total,
a similar volume to that of Feb 2016.
The day ended with Jan 17 London wheat down GBP1.40/tonne at GBP147.00/tonne,
Mar 17 Paris wheat was down EUR0.25/tonne at EUR169.50/tonne, Mar 17 Paris corn
was unchanged at EUR169.50/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed rose EUR2.50/tonne
The latest customs data from Brussels shows EU soft wheat exports running 3%
lower than year ago levels at 13.6 MMT. A continuation of this slowdown is expected
in the second half of the season, with total final all wheat exports likely
to be in the region of 25.5 MMT versus 35.7 MMT a year ago, for a drop of 28.6%
say the USDA.
French analysts Strategie Grains forecast next season's EU 2017/18 soft wheat
exports at 26.5 MMT in it's first forecast of the year, flagging a dent in production
hopes after this month's cold snap, note Agrimoney. (The EU Commission have
this season's soft wheat only exports at 23 MMT versus an average of 32.0 MMT/year
in the three seasons to 2015/16).
"Strategie Grains also factored in an EU soft wheat harvest of 143.8 MMT
this year, a downgrade of 1.2 MMT on the previous estimate. The downgraded figure
still represents a sharp recovery, of 7.9 MMT, on the 2016 result," Agrimoney
On the international tender front, Jordan bought 50,000 MT of hard wheat in
a tender for 100,000 MT, and are tendering for 50,0000 MT of feed barley. Taiwan
are in the market for 93,600 MT of what will probably turn out to be US milling
wheat, Morocco are reported to have bought 363,636 MT of EU soft wheat in a
Egypt's GASC are back in the market today tendering for wheat for Feb 22 -
Mar 3 shipment, having bought a mixture of Russian and Romanian wheat recently.
Results of that are expected Friday afternoon.
A Ukraine think tank (UNIAN) estimated 2016/17 grain exports at a record 43.7
MMT this season, including 20.9 MMT of corn 16.5 MMT of wheat and 5.3 MMT of
barley. Last season's grain export record was 39.4 MMT.
May 17 London wheat trades GBP0.50/tonne higher at GBP150.25/tonne, May 17
Paris wheat is down EUR0.25/tonne to EUR172.75/tonne, Mar 17 Paris corn is also
down EUR0.25/tonne at EUR168.75/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed trades EUR1.00/tonne
lower at EUR417.75/tonne.
London wheat is boosted once again by a lower sterling which trades at 1.23
against the US dollar and a little over 1.15 versus the euro.
Any possible damage to crops in eastern Europe, southern Russia and Ukraine
due to the recent cold spell is being largely played down/ignored by the market
for the time being.
Ukraine says that winter grains were sown on 7.2 million ha, and place emergence
at 95% on 6.8 million ha of that. Of the emerged area 83% of the crops are said
to be in in good/satisfactory condition and 17% weak/thinned.
Customs data shows Russian seaports exporting more than 456 TMT of grains last
week, including 234 TMT of wheat.
Morocco are said to have bought a significant volume of US wheat under a preferential
duty agreement between the two countries. They are now said to be tendering
for EU wheat also.
At the close Jan 17 London wheat was up GBP1.50/tonne at GBP145.90/tonne, Mar
17 Paris wheat was EUR0.75/tonne higher at EUR169.75/tonne, Mar 17 Paris corn
was down a euro at EUR167.50/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was up EUR0.25/tonne
Trade was quiet awaiting the USDA data late in European trading hours.
That put the US HRW wheat area for the 2017 harvest 23.3 million acres, which
is 12% lower than a year ago. All wheat acres were estimated at 32.38 million
ha, down 3.75 million from last year and at the lower end of the range of trade
forecasts. This is the second lowest winter wheat area on record, and the lowest
Global wheat production, already at a record, was raised even higher this month
mainly on larger crops in Argentina, the EU, and Russia.
Global trade was boosted to a new record with stronger import demand from several
Asian countries and Brazil. Larger exports for Australia, Argentina, and the
EU were partially offset by a decrease for Canada, they said.
EU 2016/17 production was increased 350 TMT to 144.32 MMT, and exports nudged
500 TMT higher to 25.5 MMT. This year's Russian crop was upped 500 TMT to 72.5
World ending stocks for 2016/17 were increased 1.15 MMT to 253.3 MMT. Ending
stocks-to-use ratio for 2016/17 is now projected at 34.2% versus 34.1% in December
and 33.8% a year previously.
The day ended with Jan 17 London wheat up GBP1.05/tonne at GBP144.40/tonne,
Mar 17 Paris wheat was down EUR0.75/tonne at EUR169.00/tonne, Mar 17 Paris corn
was down EUR0.50/tonne to EUR168.50/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed fell EUR0.25/tonne
The pound fell as low as 1.15 versus the euro, a level last seen two months
ago. It was also down to 1.22 against the US dollar.
It's a big day for the grain markets tomorrow, with the USDA due to release
their first world supply and demand numbers of the new year.
The figures could be unusually important for US winter wheat plantings. "Analysts
expect this figure to show a drop of 2.0m acres year on year to 34.1m acres,
the lowest since 1913, but with some ideas that the figure could be lower –
substantially," said Agrimoney.
Closer to home, FranceAgriMer revised upwards their estimate for French soft
wheat exports to non-EU destinations, up from 4.7 MMT to 4.8 MMT, but that's
still massively below last season's 12.6 MMT figure.
Ending stock were cut to 2.365 MMT from the 2.683 MMT seen last month.
Turkey tendered for 230,000 MT of EU high quality milling wheat.
At the finish Jan 17 London wheat was down GBP0.80/tonne at GBP143.35/tonne,
Mar 17 Paris wheat fell EUR1.25/tonne to EUR169.75/tonne, Mar 17 Paris corn
ended EUR0.75/tonne lower at EUR169.00/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed closed
EUR1.75/tonne higher at EUR415.50/tonne.
Ukraine said that it's 2016/17 grain exports had now surpassed 23 MMT, of which
11.5 MMT was wheat ,4.3 MMT barley and 7.1 MMT corn. According to their Ag Ministry
exports this full season could total 40 MMT.
The Ukraine weather centre said that 83% of winter crops were in a good to
satisfactory condition, and 17% weak/thinned. Current winter snow cover is adequate
to protect the bulk of crops against the existing very low temperatures, they
Russia experienced a significant slowdown of export pace during December 2016
with 3.3 MMT of cereals shipped which is -0.7 MMT under the November volume
or -0.8 MMT below December 2015, noted Agritel.
"More than weather conditions or festivities period, this slowdown is
due to the decline of commodities on domestic market implied by the strength
of the rouble," they commented.
At the close Jan 17 London wheat was up GBP1.50/tonne at GBP144.15/tonne, Mar
17 Paris wheat was EUR0.25/tonne easier at EUR171.00/tonne, Mar 17 Paris corn
was unchanged at EUR169.75/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed was down EUR2.50/tonne
APK Inform reported that Russia's grain exports for the two week period ending
Jan 5 came in at almost 1 MMT, including 774.2 TMT of wheat, 179.9 TMT of corn
and 30.9 TMT of barley.
Ukraine's exports in the same period were almost 1.5 MMT, including 491.2 TMT
of wheat, 967.9 TMT of corn and 32.2 TMT of barley.
French soft wheat exports are down 33% Jul/Nov at 4.1 MMT. Nov exports of only
656 TMT marked the sixth straight month of decline for what is traditionally
Europe's largest exporter.
FranceAgriMer currently forecast total French exports in 2016/17 down 47% at
10.1 MMT versus last last season.
Bangladesh's wheat imports surged 85% in the July 1-Dec 22nd period to 2.79
MMT. Imports for the whole of 2016/17 are currently estimated to rise 400 TT
to 5.1 MMT, according to the latest data from the USDA.
The day ended with Jan 17 London wheat up GBP1.35/tonne at GBP142.65/tonne,
Mar 17 Paris wheat was up EUR1.25/tonnr at EUR171.25/tonne, Mar 17 Paris corn
was up EUR0.25/tonne to EUR169.25/tonne and Feb 17 Paris rapeseed fell EUR2.75/tonne
For the week that puts London wheat GBP3.75/tonne higher In Paris, wheat is
up EUR3.25/tonne, corn is up EUR1.25/tonne and rapeseed has gained EUR6.25/tonne.
Brussels reported 140 TMT worth of EU soft wheat exports this past week. That
takes the season to date total to 12.87 MMT. Cumulative barley exports stand
at 2.1 MMT, and corn imports are 4.7 MMT.
A harsh cold snap gripping the Black Sea area is expected to last a few more
days yet, and could cause some winterkill issues for wheat unprotected by an
adequate snow coverage.
In the US, Farm Futures magazine indicates winter wheat seedings of only 34.8
million acres, the lowest total since 1913, as growers switch to other crops.
The FAO said that Russia will harvest 115 MMT of grains this season, up 13%
versus last year. Production in Ukraine will rise 6% to 63 MMT, they added.