GB barley area falls to 16-year low as growers rethink rotations
Great Britain’s barley area has fallen to its lowest level in 16 years as growers shift cropping plans in response to weaker margins, changing demand and rising costs.
AHDB’s latest Planting and Variety Survey, which provides the first post-planting estimates of cropped areas for harvest 2026, shows a marked change in the balance of crops grown across the UK.
The survey estimates total barley area at 930,000 hectares, down 12% year-on-year and 17% below the five-year average.
AHDB said the decline has been driven mainly by a reduction in spring barley, with smaller falls in winter barley.
It said growers were responding to lower cereal prices, reduced premiums, rising input costs and weaker demand from the malting, brewing and distilling sector.
In Scotland, the barley area has fallen 13% to 258,000 hectares, its lowest level since the 1960s.
The share of barley varieties suitable for malting, brewing and distilling has also dropped to 62%, reducing the potential availability of malting-quality grain.
A smaller malting-suitable area could tighten availability for brewers, maltsters and distillers if yields or quality disappoint.
The shift comes as UK barley usage by the brewing, malting and distilling sector in 2025/26 is forecast to be the lowest since records began in 1990/91.
While barley has fallen sharply, wheat has recovered more modestly.
GB wheat area is estimated to have risen 3% to 1.711 million hectares, putting it 1% above the five-year average and close to 2023 levels.
AHDB said regional trends varied, with some northern areas seeing declines likely linked to uncertainty over bioethanol demand.
Scotland recorded a notable increase in wheat area, reaching 116,000 hectares, the largest since 1992.
The survey also shows a move towards higher-specification wheat varieties, which could support milling wheat availability.
Group 1 varieties now account for 23% of the GB area, up four percentage points, while Group 3 varieties have risen to 12%, their highest share since 2014. Group 4 varieties have fallen to 44%.
However, AHDB said final supply would depend on yields and grain quality after dry spring conditions and higher input costs.
Oilseed rape has rebounded strongly, with the planted area up 49% year-on-year to 358,000 hectares.
The recovery has been supported by improved returns in 2025 and a more favourable margin outlook compared with cereals.
However, AHDB said the increase came from a historically low base and remained below 2023 levels, with pest pressure and variable performance in recent seasons continuing to weigh on grower confidence.
Other spring crops have also contracted, with the UK oat area falling 15% to 168,000 hectares, the lowest since 2023.
Overall, declines in barley and oats outweighed the rise in wheat, leaving the total GB cereals area down 4% at 2.807 million hectares.
That is the lowest total cereals area since 2006.
When oilseeds are included, however, the total cropped area is marginally higher year-on-year, driven by the recovery in oilseed rape.
Helen Plant, AHDB lead analyst for cereals and oilseeds, said the figures showed how quickly growers were adjusting to pressure on margins and changing demand.
“This year’s survey shows just how quickly cropping decisions are responding to sustained pressure on farm margins and changes in demand,” she said.
“The sharp reduction in barley area reflects the combined impact of weaker prices, lower premiums and lower demand from the malting, brewing and distilling sectors.”
She said the recovery in oilseed rape and modest rise in wheat showed growers were reassessing rotations to manage risk and remain profitable.
“At the same time, the recovery in oilseed rape and modest increase in wheat shows that growers are actively reassessing their rotations to manage risk and remain profitable where possible,” she said.
AHDB said yields, crop quality and demand through the season would now determine how far the shift in planted area feeds through into supply and prices.
